Tracking NWS Area Forecast Discussions to Study the Subjective Use of Wind and Temperature Profiler Data Douglas W. van de Kamp and Daphne M. Grant NOAA

Tracking NWS Area Forecast Discussions to Study the Subjective

Use of Wind and Temperature Profiler Data

Douglas W. van de Kamp and Daphne M. Grant

NOAA Research-Forecast Systems LaboratoryBoulder, Colorado

www.profiler.noaa.gov

2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

NPN Wind Profiler

NPN Wind & RASS


Locations of NOAA Profiler Network Sites

CAP Wind Profiler

CAP Wind & RASS

Locations of Cooperative Agency Profiler Sites


NPN Wind Profiler

NPN Wind & RASS

NPN Wind Profiler

NPN Wind & RASS

CAP Wind Profiler

CAP Wind & RASS

Locations of all known Profilers in the Continental U.S., Canada and Mexico


Locations of National Weather Service Forecast Offices


"...FORECAST CONCERN THIS CYCLE CONTINUES TO BE TIMING OF PRECIP CHANCES ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPS...

LATEST RADAR SHOWING MCS EDGING INTO SOUTHWEST PART OF CWA…

TWO MCS'S IN PLAY WHEN SHIFT STARTED BUT NORTHERN ONE THAT WAS OVER SOUTHERN SDAK HAS WEAKENED AS PER WARMING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY…

PROFILER NETWORK SHOWED SHORTWAVE POSITION IN WESTERN SDAK AND NEB AT 700 MB. STEERING WINDS AT MCCOOK...WHICH IS WHERE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING...ARE VERY LIGHT CONFIRMING SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS. COMPARED 500MB PROFILER WINDS WITH 06Z GFS AND IT LOOKS LIKE MODEL IS OVERDONE WITH STRENGTH OF 500 WAVE TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST.

HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS…

TIMING OF SHORTWAVES THEN BECOMES FOCUS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEKEND. MCS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT LOOKS TO GIVE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE ...”

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NEBRASKA

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS400 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2003


“UPDATE...COLD AND SNOWY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. COASTAL FRONT IS JUST OFFSHORE EXCEPT IN SE NH WHERE IT HAS CREPT INLAND AND JUMPED TEMPS INTO THE LWR 30S. WILL BE UPDATING TO TOUCH UP THE FIRST PD. NO CHANGES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

DISCUSSION...MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR THE FORECAST AREA...STARTING THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY...BEFORE WINDING DOWN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BOTTOM LINE...NO CHANGE IN THE WARNINGS FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BASED ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OUR SOUTH (STRONG VEERING ON THE RUTGERS PROFILER IN NJ)...THE SNOW SHOULD FALL HEAVILY AT TIMES NOT LONG AFTER STARTING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 06Z OR SO. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 OR 3 INCHES AN HOUR COULD DEVELOP IN THE STRONG WARMING. WHILE IT WON'T BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST...THUNDER AND LIGHTNING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.”


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY/PORTLAND MAINE

SOUTHERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE915 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2003

Amarillo

Austin/San Antonio

Baltimore/Washington DC

Binghamton

Brownsville

Charleston

Cheyenne Chicago

Corpus Christi

Denver

Des Moines

DetroitPontiac

Dodge City

Grand Forks

El Paso-Santa Teresa

Eureka

Flagstaff

Fort Worth

Gaylord

GoodlandGrand Junction

GrandRapids

Gray

Green Bay

Hanford

Hastings

Houston/Galveston

Jackson

KansasCity

La Crosse

Lake Charles

Lincoln

Little RockLos Angeles

Louisville

Lubbock

Marquette

Medford

Melbourne

Miami

Midland/Odessa

Mount Holly

Nashville

New Orleans/Baton Rouge

Norman

North PlatteNorthern IN

Omaha

Paducah

Portland

Pueblo

Quad Cities

Raleigh

Rapid City

RenoSacramento

San Angelo

SanFrancisco

Seattle

Shreveport

Sioux Falls

Springfield

St. Louis

Taunton

Topeka

Tulsa

TwinCities

Wichita

Wakefield

Number of AFDs

1-20:

21-40:

41-60:

61-90:

> 90

Tallahassee

Milwaukee/Sullivan

Tucson

Key West

Albuquerque

Locations of NWS Offices Identifying Use of Profiler Data in their Area Forecast Discussions, 6 January 2003 – 5 January 2004


Categories of Profiler Data Usage Identified from the Area Forecast Discussions


Profiler data mentioned in AFDs Jan. 6, 2003 - Jan. 5, 2004

25

20

15

10

5

0

6-Jan 26-Mar 5-May 14-Jun 24-Jul 2-Sep 12-Oct 21-Nov 5-Jan15-Feb

Num

ber

of

Tim

es

Pro

filer

Dat

a M

entio

ned/

Day


Profiler

Profiler, RUC, & ACARS data mentioned in AFDs Jan. 6, 2003 - Jan. 5, 2004

Num

ber

of

Tim

es

Dat

a T

ype

Me

ntio

ned/

Da

y

25

20

15

10

5

0

6-Jan 15-Feb 26-Mar 5-May 14-Jun 24-Jul 2-Sep 12-Oct 21-Nov 5-Jan

2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

RUCProfilerACARS

Summary

• Identified the use of wind and temperature profiler data in NWS Area Forecast Discussions

• Categorized the use of profiler data in forecaster’s decision making process

• Profiler data useful for general “situational awareness”, in addition to specific applications

• Data were found to be valuable and well integrated into routine operations at many NWS offices

2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov 2005 AMS Conference – San Diego, CAProfiler Program Office 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6200 www.profiler.noaa.gov

Documents

Tracking NWS Area Forecast Discussions to Study the Subjective Use of Wind and Temperature Profiler Data Douglas W. van de Kamp and Daphne M. Grant NOAA