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HANYANG UNIVERSITY사랑의 실천HANYANG UNIVERSITY사랑의 실천
FTA & International TradeMichael KrukNovember, 29th 2012
Michael Kruk
Goodbye Doha, hello Bali
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Agenda
1. Doha Development Round
2. Current Situation
3. Perspectives and Opportunities
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Doha Development Round
General Facts
– Trade negotiation round
– Initiated by WTO (World Trade Organization) in 2001 in Doha
– Held regularily in different countries
• Cancún, 2003
• Geneva, 2004
• Paris, 2005
• Hong Kong, 2005
• Geneva, 2006
• Potsdam, 2007
• Geneva, 2008
– 157 Countries involved (155 in 2001)
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Doha Development Round
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Doha Development Round
General Facts
– Main objective: lower trade barriers increase global trade
– Scope: Manuacturing, agriculture, services, antitrust, intellectual
property and foreign-investment rules
– Discussions in five groups:
• Market access, development issues, WTO rules, trade faciliation,
other issues
– Potential gain: $280 billion per year
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Long-term change in value of exports (in bn USD)
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Long-term change in employment by sector(in %)
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Doha Development Round
Problems and Issues
– 2008: Talks stalled over major issues
• Agriculture
• Industrial tariffs, non-tariff barriers
• services and trade remedies
– Developed countries vs. developing countries
• EU, USA, Japan
vs
• Brazil, China, India, South Africa, South Korea
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Doha Development Round
Problems and Issues
– Biggest issue is Agriculture:
• WTO put poor countries first (export to rich-country markets)
• USA and EU maintain agricultural subsidies seen as unfair
• Powerful lobbies (Agriculture) have influence
– Too many countries involved
– „Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed“
– „Absolute deadline“ set or 31st December 2011 final failure of Doha
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Doha Development Round
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Current Situation
After Doha‘s Failure
– Regional alternatives to a multilateral deal came up
benefit insiders at the expense of outsiders
no global gains
Every deal has own rules: global deals even harder to forge
Patchwork of regional deals brings no global benefit and makes
things more complicated
Bad
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Doha Round failed
What now?
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Perspecctives and Opportunities
WTO should introduce „Global Recovery Round“
– Take the best bits of regional deals, trade blocs & existing Doha points
– Drop the all-or-nothing principle
– Break up talks into small chunks and progress independently
– Open negotiations: members can leave or join
– Focus on Manufacturing (55%) and Services (20%)
Still high tarifffs in manufacturing trade (cars, bicycles, etc.)
Services trade has hardly been liberalised
– Agriculture: slow but steady progress
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Perspecctives and Opportunities
Next important Meetings
– G20 finance ministers meet in Mexico, November 2012
Propose Global Recovery Round to WTO
– Finish Global Recovery Round at WTO`s next meeting in Bali,
December 2013
HANYANG UNIVERSITY사랑의 실천HANYANG UNIVERSITY사랑의 실천
Michael Kruk
Thank you for your attention!
