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‘Trade opportunities for woody biomass end-products from British Columbia ’. B. Verkerk, M. Junginger and A. Faaij (Universiteit Utrecht) E. Ackom and P. McFarlane (UBC). Outline. Objective and Scope Methodology Theoretical approach Results Conclusions. Objective and Scope. Aim: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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‘Trade opportunities for woody biomass end-products from British
Columbia’
B. Verkerk, M. Junginger and A. Faaij (Universiteit Utrecht)
E. Ackom and P. McFarlane (UBC)
Outline
• Objective and Scope • Methodology • Theoretical approach• Results• Conclusions
Objective and ScopeAim:
To assess the biomass market potential for BC under varying scenarios from the present until 2020.
Scope:• Biomass products:
– Pellets & Ethanol
• Different feedstock:– Sawmill residues, Roadside residues & MPB infested trees
• Markets:– BC, US & EU
Methodology
1. Region definition
2. Feedstock inventory
3. Selection of supply chains
4. Specification of cost-supply curves
5. Specification of demand
6. Determination of potential
Theoretical approachSupply chains for woody biomass
Sawmill residues
Roadside residues
MPB killed trees
Transportation
Gathering feedstock
Production end-product
Transportation
Felling of tree
Skidding to roadside
Comminuting at roadside
Hauling by truck
Pellet production Ethanol production
Hauling by truck Hauling by train
Terminal
Stages FeedstockForest
= decision step
Storage Storage
Theoretical approachScenarios
Max:Favorable conditions in production and demanding markets
Min:No significant improvements
End-product scenarios(to international terminal)Sc. 1: Pellet-MaxSc. 2: Pellet-MinSc. 3: Ethanol-MaxSc. 4: Ethanol-Min
Feedstock fully availableGovernmental support Strong competition for feedstock Feedstock sources constrained by government
Feedstock scenarios(to plant gate)Sc. 1: Availability-Max Sc. 2: Pro-activeSc. 3: Reduced cheap feedstockSc. 4: Limited sources
DescriptionName
Theoretical approachScenarios
Feedstock scenario Allocation feedstock (% of total surplus for pellets & ethanol)
Sawmill residues
Roadside residues
MPB infested trees
Scenario 1: Availability-Max Scenario 2: Pro-activeScenario 3: Reduced cheap feedstockScenario 4: Limited sources
100%40%0%50%
100%70%70%100%
100%60%80%n.a.
Feedstock Scenario Governmentalstance
% of total MPB infested trees made available for period 2012-2020
Scenario 1: Availability-Max Scenario 2: Pro-activeScenario 3: Reduced cheap feedstockScenario 4: Limited sources
+++/--
50%50%25%0%
Theoretical approachScenarios
Name of scenario Cost reduction compared to 2007
Feedstock scenarios 2008 2012 2020
Scenario 1: Availability-Max Scenario 2: Pro-activeScenario 3: Reduced cheap
feedstockScenario 4: Limited sources
2%4%1.5%0%
7.8%15.1%5.9%0%
21.5%38.7%16.6%0%
n.b. accounted for inflation rate
Results
Odt = oven dry tonne = 1000kg @ 0% MC
Cost supply curve 'feedstock till plant gate' 2008
010
20304050
607080
90100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Supply (million Odt/yr)
Co
sts
($
/Od
t)
Sawmill residues
Roadside residues
Results
Cost supply curves feedstock 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Supply (million Odt/yr)
Co
st ($
/Od
t)
Feedstock sc. 1
Feedstock sc. 2
Feedstock sc. 3
Feedstock sc. 4
Cost supply curves feedstock 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Supply (million Odt/yr)
Co
st ($
/Od
t)
Feedstock sc. 1
Feedstock sc. 2
Feedstock sc. 3
Feedstock sc. 4
Results
Cost supply curve Pellet Max scenarios, 2012
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0 25 50 75 100 125 150Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st
($/G
J)
Pellet Max. FS 1
Pellet Max. FS 2
Pellet Max. FS 3
Pellet Max. FS 4
Demand Max.
Demand Min.
Currently 13.5 PJ produced in 2007
Cost Supply curve Pellet Max/Min 2020
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240
Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st
($/G
J)
FS. 1 Pellet Max
FS. 1 Pellet Min
FS. 2 Pellet Max
FS. 3 Pellet Min
Demand Max
Demand Min
Results
Results
Cost Supply Curve Ethanol Max 2012
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st
($/G
J)
FS 1 Ethanol Max
FS 1 Ethanol Min
FS 2 Ethanol Max
FS 3 Ethanol Max
FS 4 Ethanol Max
Demand Max
Demand Min
Ethanol production volume
Breakdown costs Ethanol Min/Max FS 1 for BC, 2012
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sawm MPB Sawm MPB
$/G
J
transportation to terminal
production (cap+O&M)
storage
transporation
comminution
harvesting
feedstock
revenues
Max scenario Min scenario400 MW
Results
Cost Supply Curve Ethanol Scenarios 2020
15
20
25
30
0 50 100 150
Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st ($
/GJ)
FS 1 Ethanol Max
FS 1 Ethanol Min
FS 2 Ethanol Max
FS 2 Ethanol Min
FS 3 Ethanol Max
FS 3 Ethanol Min
Demand Max
Demand Min
Ethanol production volume
400 MW
Results
Sensitivity of ethanol plant size: Ethanol Max, FS 1 2020
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 30 60 90 120Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st (
$/G
J)
100MW output
200MW output
400MW output (Max scenario)
1000MW output
Demand Max
Demand Min
Conclusions
• There is significant market potential for biomass end-products trade from BC.
• Market potential:
Million PJ/yr 2008 2012 2020
Pellets
EU 0 – 18.7 0 – 60.8 0 – 218.0
Ethanol
BC n.a. 0 0 – 19.6
US n.a. 0 0 – 250.1
EU n.a. 0 0 – 88.9
13.5 PJ produced in 2007
Questions?
ResultsPellet costs Vancouver FOB:
Ethanol costs Vancouver FOB :
Cost US$/GJ 2008 2012 2020
Sawmill residues 5.0 – 6.2 4.3 – 6.0 3.6 – 5.4
Roadside residues 6.4 – 7.6 5.8 – 7.2 4.7 – 6.6
MPB trees n.a. 9.4 – 10.8 7.7 – 9.7
Cost US$/GJ 2008 2012 2020
Sawmill residues n.a. 18.5 – 19.0 17.1 – 18.2
Roadside residues n.a. n.a. n.a.
MPB trees n.a. 26.5 – 31.1 21.1 – 25.2
ResultsFeedstock availability:
Feedstock costs:Cost US$/Odt 2008 2012 2020
Sawmill residues 17.0 - 28.4 17.0 - 28.4 17.0 - 28.4
Roadside residues 43.7 - 86.2 40.3 - 79.0 34.3 - 67.4
MPB trees 99.7 - … 95.9 - 109.7 81.7 -103.0
Million Odt’s/yr 2008 2012 2020
Sawmill residues 1.3 1.3 1.3
Roadside residues 5.0 5.5 5.9
MPB trees n.a. 36.7 15.0