Traffic Review Report F 18.09

Sitapur-Bareilly Section of NH 24 Gifford Review of Traffic Estimate Page 1 Report No SB/01

Report No. Gifford/Road-S-B/P01 September 2010

IMPLEMENTATION OF FOUR LANING OF BAREILLY SECTION OF NH-24

(FROM KM 262.00 TO KM 413.00) IN THE STATE OF UTTAR PRADESH UNDER NHDP PHASE III ON DBFOT BASIS

CONSULTANCY SERVICES

FOR

REVIEW OF COST ESTIMATE & TRAFFIC

VOLUME – 2

(REVIEW OF TRAFFIC REPORT)


Chapter-0

Executive Summary

0.1 BACKGROUND The National Highways Authority of India is entrusted by Government of India for development of National Highways and as part of this endeavor, the Authority has decided to undertake four Laning of Bareilly - Sitapur Section of NH- 24 from km 262.000 to 413.200 in the State of Uttar Pradesh under NHDP Phase III through private participation on Design, Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer (the "DBFOT") basis, and has decided to carry out the bidding process for selection of the Bidder to whom the Project may be awarded.

National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) had invited Proposals from the shortlisted bidders for the construction of Bareilly to Sitapur (NH 24) in Uttar Pradesh on DBFOT basis.

At Bidding Stage, ERA – Sibmost (JV) examined the Project details and work out their cost and revenue based on traffic, required for submitting bid. In the bidding process of NHAI has found ERA – Sibmost (JV) as preferred bidders and appointed them as Concessionaire for carrying out the assignments. After award of the contract ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD worked out the cost and traffic and presented its financial model to the Bankers for seeking the loan.

ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD further appointed M/s Gifford India Pvt Ltd (100% subsidiary of Gifford UK) vide their letter dated 23rd July 2010to review the cost and traffic data.

This report consists of review of cost of the project based on data supplied by M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD to Gifford India Pvt. Ltd. The report on traffic survey, analysis and forecasting will submitted separately.

0.2 PROJECT SCOPE The present study corridor is two lane road starts from Bareilly at Km.262+000 to Sitapur at Km. 413+200 on NH - 24 in the state of Uttar Pradesh. Total project length is approximately 156.5 Km (including bypass) the project road passes through important Divisional head quarters namely Bareilly, Shahjahanpur and Sitapur in the state of Uttar Pradesh.

The existing carriageway width is generally 6.800 to 7.000m in the stretch of the road section. There are lines of matured trees in some stretches on both the sides of the road at a distance of


about 5.5 m to 8.5 m from the centerline of the project road which require cutting to facilitate four laning of the road.

The salient features of project road are as follows

• The project starts at km.262.000 (near Bareilly) and ends at km.413.200 (near

Sitapur) covering a length of 151.200 km on NH-24. The project falls in the state

of Uttar Pradesh.

• The land use pattern of the project area is mostly Agricultural with small portion

of industrial, built up and barren lands.

• The average ROW width varies from 40.00m to 45.00m. The proposed ROW

width for four laning is 60m in Non-Urban areas and 45 m in Urban areas.

• All the permanent structures from minor to major bridges are proposed to be

constructed for 4-lane carriageway. In case of existing major bridge not requiring

reconstruction, the existing 2- lane C/W shall be maintained & 2-lane new C/W

shall be constructed. The project involves improvement of existing 8 nos 2-lane

major bridges and 14 nos. existing minor/small bridges to be reconstructed. All

the 159 culverts have to be dismantled and reconstructed to 4-lanes.

• There are 15 major intersections on the project stretch out of which 2

intersections are proposed for provision of vehicular underpasses,1 intersections

are proposed for provision of ROB, 2 intersections are proposed for provision of

4-lane flyovers and 2 intersections are proposed for provision of 2-lane cross

flyovers across the project road.

• Four ROB’s are proposed at km.289.660, km 334.475, km 398.130 and km

407.660. Existing ROB at km 334.475 have to be reconstructed to accommodate

vertical clearance requirement. The existing 2-lane C/W of ROB at 407.660 has

to be retained and an additional 2-Lane C/W with foot path is proposed. Two new

ROB’s are proposed at existing level crossing at km 289.660 & km 398.130 with

4-lane.

• Truck lay byes and rest areas are proposed at 10 locations at km 263/400, km

274/050, km 286/400, km 304/000, km 320/600, km 331/300, km 346/400, km

368/100, km 380/000 & km 403/000 (Existing chainage)

• Two Toll Plazas are proposed in the project at km.267/000 & km 370/000.


• Service roads of 7m width are proposed in selected built up areas aggregating to

a total length of 38.100 km.

• Footpaths of 2m width are proposed in selected built up areas corresponding to

the provision of service roads with pedestrian guard rails.

• The project road passes through 12 important urban areas.

• 29 numbers of bus bays with passenger shelters and 10 numbers passenger

shelters are proposed in the project.

• Five bypasses are proposed to bypass the congested Built-up area, with a total

length of 28.76 km approx. as under: - .

o Faridpur from Km 267.800 to 273.050 for 5.25 Kms.

o Rouza from Km 331.360 to 336.900 for 5.540 Kms.

o Jung Bahadurganj from Km 356.19 to Km 361.020 for 4.83 Kms.

o Maigal ganj from Km 373.950 to Km 380.400 for 6.45 Kms.

o Maholi from Km 389.220 to 395.910 for 6.69 Kms.

• Approx. 21,000 trees of various girths are proposed to be felled for the project.

• Shifting of 1547 electric posts and 333 telephone posts is envisaged.

0.3 Project Traffic Review Based on initial discussions with M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD a methodology has been worked out to review the traffic of the project. The broad review has been carried in following manner

M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD is requested to supply all the relevant data

related to the project traffic.

Study the Details of Traffic Scenario by experienced Traffic Engineer

Conduct 7 Day Independent traffic volume count at 2 proposed toll plaza locations.

Preparation of traffic report based on the 7 Day CVC conducted at 2 locations

To compare the results with that of M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD already

provided to the bank.

Discussions of our observations with M/s ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD

0.4 Data Supplied by ERA INFRA ENGINEERING LTD


On request from Consultant M/s ERA Infra Engineering Ltd has supplied the following data:

Traffic Survey Report

Traffic Analysis & Growth Projection Report


TRAFFIC REPORT BASED ON PRESENT TRAFFIC STUDY


General

National Highway Authority of India (NHAI) has taken up the rehabilitation and

strengthening of existing 2‐lane road to 4‐lane dual carriageway configuration of

Bareilly‐ Sitapur Section of NH‐24 from km. 262.000 to km. 413.200 in the State of Uttar

Pradesh.

In order to capture the traffic characteristics along the project road a detailed traffic

study has been carried out. The main objectives of the traffic surveys are:

• To assess the volume of traffic flow and their characteristics.

• To assess the future growth rates of traffic

• To forecast the future traffic demand for next 30 years

• To assess the tollable traffic for next 25 years

The location map of the project road is shown below.

Fig. 1.1: Location Map

Traffic Survey Locations

Classified traffic volume counting and Origin‐Destination surveys have been carried out

at two proposed toll plaza locations along the project corridor. The locations and

schedule of traffic surveys are as given below.


Table 1.1: Traffic Surveys Schedule

Sl.

NoType of Survey Duration Location Date(s) of Survey

7 Days km. 267.000 26‐07‐2010 to 01‐08‐20101 Classified Volume Count (CVC)

7 Days km. 370.000 26‐07‐2010 to 01‐08‐2010

24 Hours km. 267.000 28‐08‐2010 2 Origin – Destination (O‐D)

24 Hours km. 370.000 30‐08‐2010

Vehicle Classification System The vehicle classification used in the survey along with their PCU values, as suggested in

IRC: 64 – 1990, are presented below in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2: Vehicle Classification and PCU Factors

Vehicle Type PCU factor

Fast Moving Vehicles

Two Wheeler 0.5

Three Wheeler (Auto Rickshaw) 1.0

Car, Jeep and Van 1.0

Mini Bus 1.5

Bus 3.0

Light Commercial Vehicle (LCV) 1.5

2‐Axle truck 3.0

3‐Axle Truck 3.0

Multi Axle Vehicle (MAV) – 4‐6 Axles 4.5

Multi Axle Vehicle (MAV) – > 6

Axles

4.5

Agriculture Tractor 1.5

Agriculture Tractor with Trailer 4.5

Slow Moving Vehicles

Cycle 0.5

Cycle‐Rickshaw 2.0

Animal Drawn Cart 6.0


Classified Volume Count Surveys

The classified volume count surveys at both the locations as mentioned above were

commenced w.e.f. 26 July 2010 for 7 consecutive days (both directions) from 8:00 AM

till 8:00 AM of 01 August 2010. Traffic counting was carried out manually by trained

enumerators using hand tally marks. The traffic flows were recorded in 15 minutes

intervals on the prescribed format and vehicle classification system as specified in TOR.

The analysis of the classified traffic volume count observed at the count locations was

carried out to arrive at the:

• Average Daily Traffic (ADT) • Day wise Variation • Hourly Variation • Traffic composition • Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

The 7 day traffic volume count data collected at each of the survey location was averaged out to arrive at the location wise average daily traffic (ADT) on the project road sections. The direction‐wise summary of ADT in terms of vehicles at the two survey locations on project road is given in Table 1.3.

Table 1.3: Summary of Average Daily Traffic (ADT)

At km. 267.000 At km. 370.000

Vehicle Type Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Total

ADT

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Total

ADT

2‐Wheeler 1649 1613 3262 556 570 1126 3‐Wheeler 551 550 1101 84 85 169 Car, Jeep, Taxi and Van 1074 1086 2160 637 611 1248 Mini Bus 33 33 66 16 16 32 Bus 256 254 510 149 144 293 LCV 583 592 1175 563 566 1129 2‐Axle truck 1190 1196 2386 1080 1101 2181 3‐Axle Truck 1387 1397 2784 1377 1337 2714 MAV (4‐6 Axles) 251 247 498 243 244 487


At km. 267.000 At km. 370.000


Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Total

ADT

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Total

ADT

MAV (> 6 Axles) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agriculture Tractor 20 24 44 28 29 57 Agriculture Tractor

+Trailer 116 121 237 35 27 62

Cycle 502 513 1015 419 393 812 Cycle‐Rickshaw 4 11 15 106 101 207 Animal Drawn Cart 42 45 87 5 4 9 Toll Exempt Vehicles Car, Jeep and Van 26 18 44 15 12 27 Mini Bus 3 2 5 1 0 1 Bus 1 3 4 1 0 1 LCV 3 2 5 3 2 5 Truck 5 4 9 2 2 4 Total (Vehicles) 7696 7711 15407 5320 5244 10564 Total (PCUs) 14118 14207 28325 11461 11307 22768

Day wise variation of the traffic in terms of vehicles and PCU at both the survey

locations are shown below.

15379

15135

15502

15462

15510

1540915447

14900

15000

15100

15200

15300

15400

15500

15600

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Day of the Week

Traf

fic in

Veh

icle

s

VehADT-Veh

Fig. 1.2: Day Wise Variation of Traffic at km. 267.000 (Veh)


2827228299

28072

2858328528

28432

28056

27700

27800

27900

28000

28100

28200

28300

28400

28500

28600

28700


Day of the Week

Traf

fic in

PC

Us

PCUsADT-PCUs

Fig. 1.3: Day Wise Variation of Traffic at km. 267.000 (PCUs)

10501

10327

10445

10825

10525

10470

10873

10000

10100

10200

10300

10400

10500

10600

10700

10800

10900

11000


Day of the Week

Traf

fic in

Veh

icle

s

VehADT-Veh

Fig. 1.4: Day Wise Variation of Traffic at km. 370.000 (Veh)

23012

22563

22806

22718

22928

22586

22801

22300

22400

22500

22600

22700

22800

22900

23000

23100


Day of the Week

Traf

fic in

PC

Us

PCUsADT-PCUs

Fig. 1.5: Day Wise Variation of Traffic at km. 370.000 (PCUs)


Hourly Variation and Peak Hour Traffic

The hourly variation of traffic illustrates the distribution of traffic over the day with

respect to time and the peak hour factor is the maximum percentage of the total traffic

that uses the project highway in one single hour of the day. It is of significance as

highway capacities and design calculations are based on peak hour factor. The peak

hour factor observed at the count locations is summarised in Table 1.4.

Table 1.4: Peak Hour Factors

Sl. No. Survey

Location

Peak Hour

Volume (PCU) ADT (PCU) PHF (%) Peak Hour

1 km. 267.000 1496 28325 5.283 5.00 PM ‐ 6.00 PM

2 km. 370.000 1100 22768 4.831 5.00 PM ‐ 6.00 PM

Hourly variation of ADT (Mode‐wise) observed at both the traffic survey locations are

shown below.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

8 - 9

9 - 1

0

10 -

11

11 -

12

12 -

13

13 -

14

14 -

15

15 -

16

16 -

17

17 -

18

18 -

19

19 -

20

20 -

21

21 -

22

22 -

23

23 -

24

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

Hours

Traf

fic in

Veh

icle

s 2-WAuto RickCar/Jeep/Taxi/VanMini BusBusTrucksTractorsNon-Motorised

Fig. 1.6: Hourly Variation (Mode wise) of Traffic at km. 267.000


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

8 - 9

9 - 1

0

10 -

11

11 -

12

12 -

13

13 -

14

14 -

15

15 -

16

16 -

17

17 -

18

18 -

19

19 -

20

20 -

21

21 -

22

22 -

23

23 -

24

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 - 6

6 - 7

7 - 8

Hours

Traf

fic in

Veh

icle

s 2-WAuto RickCar/Jeep/Taxi/VanMini BusBusTrucksTractorsNon-Motorised

Fig. 1.7: Hourly Variation (Mode wise) of Traffic at km. 370.000

Directional Distribution

Directional distribution of ADT was also analysed and presented below.

Table 1.5: Directional Distribution of Traffic (ADT)

Survey Location Direction Traffic in Direction

as % of ADT

Towards Bareilly 49.95 km. 267.000

Towards Sitapur 50.05

Towards Bareilly 50.36 km. 370.000

Towards Sitapur 49.64

Traffic Composition

Analysis was carried out to find the composition of traffic in terms of various types of

vehicles plying on the project road. The salient points from the traffic composition

analysis derived from data are shown in Figures 1.8 to 1.9.


2-W21.2%

Auto Rick7.1%

Car/Jeep/Taxi/Van14.3%Mini Bus

0.5%Bus3.3%

Trucks44.5%

Tractors1.8%

Non-Motorised7.2%

Fig 1.8: Traffic Composition at km. 267.000

Non-Motorised9.7%Tractors

1.1%

Trucks61.7%

Bus2.8%

Mini Bus0.3%

Car/Jeep/Taxi/Van12.1%

Auto Rick1.6%2-W

10.7%

Fig 1.9 : Traffic Composition at km. 370.000

Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

The traffic plying on any road generally varies over the different periods of the year

depending on the cycle of different socio‐economic activities in the regions through

which it passes. Therefore, in order to have more realistic picture of the traffic on the

project road, it is required to assess seasonal variation in traffic to estimate Annual

Average Daily Traffic (AADT). Therefore, the ADT observed during the survey duration is


divided by a Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF) to derive AADT. For the present study, the

seasonal correction factor is derived from fuel sales of collected from three filling

stations along the project road. As the traffic surveys were conducted in the month of

July, a SCF for the month of July is considered.

Fuel sales data collected from the petrol pumps and calculation of SCF is shown below.

Sum of 3 Petrol Pumps Data Seasonal Correction Factors Month and Year

Petrol (Litres) Diesel (Litres) Petrol Driven Diesel Driven

July, 2009 110895 904120 0.933 0.946

August, 2009 97542 941024 0.821 0.984

September, 2009 127539 964268 1.074 1.009 October, 2009 137052 1084343 1.154 1.134

November, 2009 129768 1036140 1.092 1.084

December, 2009 126462 1011631 1.064 1.058

January, 2010 106863 950587 0.899 0.994

February, 2010 110526 914130 0.930 0.956

March, 2010 114795 937893 0.966 0.981

April, 2010 121500 947074 1.023 0.991

May, 2010 123768 916095 1.042 0.958

June, 2010 118956 865327 1.001 0.905

The following seasonal correction factors are adopted after thorough analysis.

• A seasonal correction factors of 0.933 for petrol driven vehicles

• A seasonal correction factors of 0.946 for diesel driven vehicles

• No seasonal correction factor for slow moving traffic as this traffic is not

susceptible to seasonal variations.


Table 1.6: Summary of Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT)

At km. 267.000 At km. 370.000


Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Total

AADT

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Total

AADT

2‐Wheeler 1767 1728 3495 596 611 1207 3‐Wheeler 583 582 1165 89 90 179 Car, Jeep, Taxi and Van 1151 1163 2314 682 655 1337 Mini Bus 35 35 70 17 17 34 Bus 271 269 540 158 152 310 LCV 616 626 1242 595 599 1194 2‐Axle truck 1258 1265 2523 1142 1164 2306 3‐Axle Truck 1467 1477 2944 1456 1414 2870 MAV (4‐6 Axles) 265 261 526 257 258 515 MAV (> 6 Axles) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Agriculture Tractor 21 25 46 30 31 61 Agriculture Tractor +Trailer 123 128 251 37 29 66 Cycle 502 513 1015 419 393 812 Cycle‐Rickshaw 4 11 15 106 101 207 Animal Drawn Cart 42 45 87 5 4 9 Toll Exempt Vehicles Car, Jeep and Van 28 19 47 16 13 29 Mini Bus 3 2 5 1 0 1 Bus 1 3 4 1 0 1 LCV 3 2 5 3 2 5 Truck 5 4 9 2 2 4 Total (Vehicles) 8145 8158 16303 5612 5535 11147 Total (PCUs) 14926 15017 29942 12106 11948 24054

The details pertaining to day and direction wise distribution of traffic at the survey

locations is given in Annexure 1.1.


Travel Pattern (Origin‐Destination Surveys)

In order to understand the travel demand pattern in the region, Origin and Destination

(O‐D) Surveys were carried out for one day (24 hours) at both the proposed toll plaza

locations i.e., at km. 267+000 and km. 370+000 on 28th July 2010 and 30th July 2010

respectively. The surveys were typically started in the morning and continued till the

next day morning. The OD surveys were carried out by roadside interview method as

described in IRC: 102‐1988. Police assistance was taken at the survey locations for

successfully carrying out these surveys. Both passenger and commercial vehicles plying

on the project road were stopped on a random sampling basis and interviewed.

The travel pattern obtained by OD survey facilitates to study the distribution of traffic

and potential divertible traffic from the project road. Trained enumerators under the

supervision of senior engineers of Gifford, have collected the trip characteristics using

the survey forms designed for this purpose. The OD survey elicited characteristics like

origin, destination, frequency, purpose and commodity etc. both for passenger and

goods vehicles. The information collected during roadside interviews was analysed to

obtain the trip distribution based on a zoning system suitably designed in the study.

Zoning System

For delineating the zoning system, the entire country was broadly divided into two

regions. These are, Immediate Influence Area (IIA) and Broad Influence Area (BIA) of the

project. The area adjacent to the project road, which contributes most of the trips,

observed on the project road, namely, Bareilly, Shahiahanpur, Kheri, Hardoli, Sitapur

etc., & other parts of Uttar Pradesh constitute IIA, where as, other states in the country

constitute BIA. In all 25 zones were defined for the project, while defining zone

boundaries the following were considered:

• Important towns and industrial centers along the project roads in the total

stretch.

• Administrative boundaries of district and state boundaries.

• Configuration of the project roads in the regional road network with respect to

other National Highways.

The zoning system considered for the study is given in Table 1.7.


Table 1.7: List of zones for the project

Zone Name of the Zone Zone Name of the Zone 1 Bareilly 14 Moradabad, Budaun 2 Shahiahanpur , Faridpur 15 Rampur 3 Kheri 16 Nainital, Almora, Pithoragarh 4 Hardoi 17 Bijnor, Garhwal, Chamoli, Uttarkashi

5 Sitapur 18 Dehradun, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Meerut, Ghaziabad

6 Bara Bamki, Lucknow 19 Delhi 7 Rea Bareli, Fatehpur, Allahabad 20 Haryana, Punjab, Himachal, J&K 8 Sultanpur 21 Rajastan, Gujarat 9 Faizabad, Ghazipur, Ballia 22 Madhapradesh, Maharastra 10 Jaunpur, Varanasi, Mirzapur 23 Bihar, Orissa

11 Kanpur, Unnao 24 West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, ArunachalPradesh, Manipur, Mizoram

12 Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur

25 Andhra Pradesh, Tamilnadu, Kerala, Goa, Karnataka

13 Agra, Mathura, Aligarh, Mainpuri

Sample Size and Distribution Factors

During O‐D Surveys, the vehicles were interviewed on a random sample basis. Based on

the sample size of different categories of vehicles interviewed during the O‐D survey,

expansion factors were calculated to generate the expanded OD matrices from the

sample data. Table 1.8 and 1.9 show the direction wise AADT, sample size (both in

absolute numbers and in percentage terms) and expansion factors at both of the

locations.

Table 1.8: Sample Size and Expansion Factors ‐ At km. 267+000

Sample Size (Nos.) AADT Sample Size (%) Expansion Factor Vehicle

Type Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Car/Jeep 248 328 1151 1163 21.55 28.20 4.64 3.55 Mini Bus 21 11 35 35 60.00 31.43 1.67 3.18 Bus 105 90 271 269 38.75 33.46 2.58 2.99 LCV 130 210 616 626 21.10 33.55 4.74 2.98 2‐AT 302 271 1258 1265 24.01 21.42 4.17 4.67 3‐AT 414 459 1467 1477 28.22 31.08 3.54 3.22 MAV 82 85 265 261 30.94 32.57 3.23 3.07


Table 1.9: Sample Size and Expansion Factors ‐ At km. 370+000

Sample Size (Nos.) AADT Sample Size (%) Expansion Factor Vehicle

Type Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Car/Jeep 164 191 682 655 24.05 29.16 4.16 3.43 Mini Bus 5 5 17 17 29.41 29.41 3.40 3.40 Bus 47 40 158 152 29.75 26.32 3.36 3.80 LCV 52 69 595 599 8.74 11.52 11.44 8.68 2‐AT 134 178 1142 1164 11.73 15.29 8.52 6.54 3‐AT 244 213 1456 1414 16.76 15.06 5.97 6.64 MAV 63 34 257 258 24.51 13.18 4.08 7.59

The expanded O‐D Matrices for different vehicles on the project road are presented in

Annexure 1.2.

Brief Review of O‐D Data Analysis

In a transportation study, it is often necessary to know the exact origin and destination

of the trips. It is very essential to know the group of trips originating from particular

zones of the study area. The other information obtained from O‐D studies are trip

pattern of the individuals from that particular origin and destination, commodity

movement pattern, lead distribution etc. A brief review of Origin‐Destination survey

analysis results viz., commodity movement pattern, trips generating from the study

zones, trip destinations, lead distribution etc are presented in this section.

Commodity Movement Pattern

The O–D survey data has been analyzed to identify the commodity movement

characteristics along the project road. The data shows that the major commodity types

carried along the project road comprises of machinery, chemicals and pharmaceuticals,

iron, steel, cement and manufactured goods. The data of composition of the different

commodities being transported along the project road section is compiled and is given

below.


`Table 1.10: Commodity Movement Pattern

Commodity Composition

at km. 267+000

Commodity Composition

at km. 370+000 Sl.

No. Commodity Group

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

Towards

Bareilly

Towards

Sitapur

1 Empty 15.84% 7.71% 16.63% 5.67% 2 Building materials 2.69% 17.07% 5.68% 9.92% 3 Coal/Ore/Minerals 3.23% 3.41% 31.03% 13.77% 4 Food Grains 5.39% 15.22% 5.07% 16.19% 5 Fruits/Vegetables/Poultry/Fish 3.66% 13.95% 8.32% 7.89% 6 Chemicals/Fertilizers/Medicines 4.74% 10.73% 3.85% 10.93% 7 Petroleum products (Ltr.) 20.69% 8.00% 2.43% 1.42% 8 Milk & Milk products 7.00% 7.51% 9.94% 1.01% 9 Machinery parts 13.25% 7.02% 5.07% 13.16% 10 Clothes/Textiles 15.30% 2.34% 0.20% 6.48% 11 Miscellaneous 2.59% 2.63% 3.04% 8.30% 12 Others 5.60% 4.39% 8.72% 5.26%

Commodity Movement Pattern (Sitapur‐Bareilly) at km. 267.000

Building materials2.69%

Empty15.84%

Others5.60%Miscellaneous

2.59%

Clothes/Textiles15.30%

Machinery parts13.25%

Milk & Milk products7.00%

Petroleum products (Ltr.)20.69%

Chemicals/Fertilizers/Medicines 4.74%

Fruits/Vegetables/Poultry/Fish3.66%

Food Grains5.39%

Coal/Ore/Minerals3.23%

Fig 1.10: Commodity Movement Pattern towards Bareilly at km. 267+000


Commodity Movement Pattern (Bareilly‐Sitapur) at km. 267.000


Empty7.71%Others

4.39%

Miscellaneous2.63%







Food Grains15.22%


Fig 1.11: Commodity Movement Pattern towards Sitapur at km. 267+000

Commodity Movement Pattern (Sitapur‐Bareilly) at km. 370.000






Food Grains5.07%



Miscellaneous3.04%Clothes/Textiles

0.20%

Others8.72%

Empty16.63%

Fig 1.12: Commodity Movement Pattern towards Bareilly at km. 370+000


Commodity Movement Pattern (Bareilly‐Sitapur) at km. 370.000






Food Grains16.19%



Miscellaneous8.30%


Others5.26%

Empty5.67%

Fig 1.13: Commodity Movement Pattern towards Sitapur at km. 370+000

Trips Origin & Destinations Pattern

Mode‐wise trips originating from the Immediate Influence Area (IIA) and Broad

Influence Area has been analysed and given below.

Table 1.11: Traffic Origin Pattern

Sl.No. Region/Zones Car Mini

Bus Bus LCV 2‐AT 3‐AT MAV

At km. 267+000 (%ge)

1‐17 Immediate Influence Area 85.67 100.00 62.94 78.14 73.14 54.17 27.77

18‐25 Broad Influence Area 14.33 0.00 37.06 21.86 26.86 45.83 72.23

At km. 370+000 (%ge)



Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00


Mode‐wise trips having destination to the Immediate Influence Area (IIA) and Broad

Influence Area is presented below.

Table 1.12: Traffic Destination Pattern

Sl.No. Region/Zones Car Mini


At km. 267+000 (%ge)



At km. 370+000 (%ge)



Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

Influence Factors

Different vehicles interact in different degrees with the different zones depending on

their purpose, commodity transported, frequency of travel etc. Vehicle category‐wise

zone‐wise influence factors are established for interpretation of OD patterns at the

surveyed location by using the following formula:

IF = [(Pi + Ai) x 100]/(∑(Pi + Ai)) where, IF = Influence Factor Pi = Total trips produced in Zone i Ai = Total trips attracted in Zone i

Mode wise traffic influence at both the locations is given in Table 1.13 to 1.14.


Table 1.13: Mode wise Traffic Influence Areas ‐ At km. 267+000

Sl.No. Zone Name/Group Car Mini


1 Bareilly 31.00 41.77 21.32 30.16 18.14 4.19 2.35

2 Shahiahanpur , Faridpur 33.15 38.20 8.93 27.83 16.69 8.54 4.18

3 Kheri 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.09 0.00 0.00

4 Hardoi 0.40 0.00 0.28 1.34 2.08 1.23 0.61

5 Sitapur 4.99 5.84 6.04 5.56 6.74 7.28 2.69

6 Bara Bamki, Lucknow 3.50 0.00 8.21 6.15 8.54 9.56 5.12

7 Rea Bareli, Fatehpur, Allahabad

1.63 2.38 1.38 0.50 1.22 0.73 0.60

8 Sultanpur 0.58 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.09 0.11 0.00

9 Faizabad, Ghazipur, Ballia 0.50 0.00 3.21 0.60 1.16 1.75 0.60

10 Jaunpur, Varanasi, Mirzapur

0.73 0.00 1.82 1.72 3.02 2.95 1.78

11 Kanpur, Unnao 0.68 2.38 4.77 2.44 3.57 3.87 3.53

12 Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur 0.10 0.00 0.55 0.69 0.67 1.00 1.80


1.33 2.38 4.53 1.31 1.95 2.35 0.89

14 Moradabad, Budaun 3.33 7.03 0.28 2.32 4.54 5.06 1.81

15 Rampur 1.91 0.00 1.51 2.42 4.56 5.67 3.27

16 Nainital, Almora, Pithoragarh

4.22 0.00 0.24 0.62 1.63 2.00 0.31

17 Bijnor, Garhwal, Chamoli, Uttarkashi

0.10 0.00 0.75 0.12 0.09 0.40 0.61

TOTAL INFLUENCE OF IIA 88.42 100.00 64.10 83.98 74.78 56.69 30.15

18 Dehradun, Saharanpur, Meerat etc.

2.97 0.00 7.86 5.58 8.78 14.07 10.28

19 Delhi 4.57 0.00 23.40 5.39 6.62 10.20 8.37

20 Haryana, Punjab, HP, J&K 0.75 0.00 1.31 1.74 2.87 5.41 20.60

21 Rajastan, Gujarat 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.34 1.07 0.91

22 MP, Maharastra 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.00 0.08 0.28 0.31

23 Bihar, Orissa 1.81 0.00 0.24 0.98 2.70 6.25 10.29

24 WB, Sikkim, Assam etc. 1.00 0.00 1.19 1.65 3.55 5.86 18.20

25 AP, TN, Kerala etc. 0.10 0.00 1.62 0.36 0.27 0.16 0.89

TOTAL INFLUENCE OF BIA 11.58 0.00 35.90 16.02 25.22 43.31 69.85


Table 1.14: Mode wise Traffic Influence Areas ‐ At km. 370+000

Sl.No. Zone Name/Group Car Mini


1 Bareilly 4.67 5.00 5.78 10.57 5.00 3.71 3.68

2 Shahiahanpur , Faridpur 6.56 10.00 13.04 9.37 6.10 4.30 4.48

3 Kheri 3.88 0.00 6.86 0.48 0.79 0.53 0.00

4 Hardoi 1.08 0.00 4.76 0.00 0.00 0.22 0.00

5 Sitapur 14.40 15.00 12.02 9.90 6.32 5.31 1.98

6 Bara Bamki, Lucknow 11.20 10.00 13.25 11.07 9.41 8.36 10.65

7 Rea Bareli, Fatehpur, Allahabad

0.26 0.00 0.00 0.84 0.98 0.75 0.74

8 Sultanpur 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.96 0.33 0.43 0.00

9 Faizabad, Ghazipur, Ballia 4.53 15.00 5.78 5.06 7.33 4.83 5.32

10 Jaunpur, Varanasi, Mirzapur

4.40 5.00 2.31 2.89 3.31 3.29 1.47

11 Kanpur, Unnao 4.46 5.00 6.46 5.30 3.75 3.06 4.59

12 Jalaun, Jhansi, Hamirpur 1.52 0.00 0.61 0.00 1.04 0.74 0.40


1.91 0.00 0.61 1.21 2.70 1.31 0.40

14 Moradabad, Budaun 3.05 0.00 1.70 4.11 5.13 3.29 1.53

15 Rampur 1.32 0.00 1.23 2.41 2.23 1.50 0.74

16 Nainital, Almora, Pithoragarh

0.00 0.00 0.54 1.93 3.66 3.44 1.87

17 Bijnor, Garhwal, Chamoli, Uttarkashi

0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.44 0.74 0.00

TOTAL INFLUENCE OF IIA 63.65 65.00 74.94 66.11 59.50 45.82 37.83

18 Dehradun, Saharanpur, Meerat etc.

11.75 15.00 9.64 5.19 9.53 9.55 9.46

19 Delhi 8.57 5.00 4.62 5.78 3.32 6.40 8.33

20 Haryana, Punjab, HP, J&K 8.50 10.00 6.72 8.10 8.59 13.24 17.94

21 Rajastan, Gujarat 1.21 0.00 0.61 0.84 3.03 3.35 1.98

22 MP, Maharastra 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.12 0.74

23 Bihar, Orissa 5.13 5.00 3.47 8.91 10.03 11.80 16.82

24 WB, Sikkim, Assam etc. 1.05 0.00 0.00 5.07 5.45 9.30 6.12

25 AP, TN, Kerala etc. 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.42 0.79

TOTAL INFLUENCE OF BIA 36.35 35.00 25.06 33.89 40.50 54.18 62.17


The analysis of travel pattern for passenger and commercial vehicles plying on the

project road reveals that most of the trips are generating with in the Immediate

Influence Area (IIA) i.e, with in the state of Uttar Pradesh. It is also observed that the

surrounding states such as Delhi, Haryana, Bihar etc. have a moderate influence on the

travel pattern along the project road.

Lead Distribution

Vehicle‐wise lead distribution at both the locations is presented in the following table

and also shown graphically.

Table 1.15: Vehicle‐wise Lead Distribution

%ge of Vehicles Lead (km)

Car Mini Bus Bus LCV 2‐AT 3‐AT MAV

AT KM. 267+000 0‐25 14.93% 0.00% 1.84% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25‐50 30.05% 50.15% 70.70% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 50‐100 15.16% 29.54% 22.46% 36.48% 8.51% 5.50% 0.00% 100‐200 8.05% 20.31% 1.89% 39.65% 23.65% 18.98% 29.00%200‐250 11.07% 0.00% 2.65% 14.23% 19.56% 19.26% 32.65%250‐500 18.77% 0.00% 0.46% 6.84% 27.06% 26.34% 24.65%>500 1.97% 0.00% 0.00% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 500‐750 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 2.80% 10.62% 14.51% 32.65%750‐1000 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 0.00% 4.69% 7.65% 24.65%1000‐1500 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 0.00% 2.85% 4.35% 9.25%

1500‐2000 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 0.00% 1.65% 1.77% 2.56%

>2000 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 0.00% 1.41% 1.64% 1.89%

AT KM. 370+000 0‐25 5.95% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 25‐50 28.69% 55.74% 37.44% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 50‐100 17.07% 26.49% 40.32% 26.59% 5.66% 5.32% 0.00% 100‐200 17.47% 17.77% 16.35% 43.29% 18.34% 15.61% 18.52%200‐250 13.54% 0.00% 5.89% 19.68% 21.51% 14.53% 49.29%250‐500 12.04% 0.00% 0.00% 6.83% 24.55% 24.32% 21.52%


%ge of Vehicles Lead (km)

Car Mini Bus Bus LCV 2‐AT 3‐AT MAV

>500 5.24% 0.00% 0.00% ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 500‐750 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 3.61% 14.52% 16.30% 49.29%

750‐1000 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 0.00% 7.98% 14.56% 21.52%

1000‐1500 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 0.00% 4.23% 7.64% 7.35%

1500‐2000 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 0.00% 3.21% 1.08% 1.68%

>2000 ‐‐ ‐‐ ‐‐ 0.00% 0.00% 0.64% 1.64%

14.93%

30.05%

15.16%

11.07%

18.77%

1.97%

8.05%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0-25 25-50 50-100 100-200 200-250 250-500 >500

Lead (km)

%ge

of C

ar

50.15%

29.54%

20.31%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-500 >500

Lead (km)

%ge

of M

ini B

us

Lead Distribution of Car at km. 267+000 Lead Distribution of M‐Bus at km. 267+000

1.84%

70.70%

22.46%

2.65%1.89% 0.46%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-500 >500

Lead (km)

%ge

of B

us

36.48%

14.23%

6.84%

2.80%

39.65%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0-25 25-50 50-100 100-200 200-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000

1000-1500

1500-2000

>2500

Lead (km)

%ge

of L

CV

Lead Distribution of Bus at km. 267+000 Lead Distribution of LCV at km. 267+000


8.51%

23.65%

19.56%

27.06%

10.62%

4.69%2.85%

1.65% 1.41%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0-25

25-5

0

50-1

00

100-

200

200-

250

250-

500

500-

750

750-

1000

1000

-150

0

1500

-200

0

>200

0

Lead (km)

%ge

of 2

-Axl

e Tr

ucks

5.50%

18.98% 19.26%

26.34%

14.51%

7.65%

4.35%

1.77% 1.64%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0-25

25-5

0

50-1

00

100-

200

200-

250

250-

500

500-

750

750-

1000

1000

-150

0

1500

-200

0

>200

0

Lead (km)

%ge

of 3

-Axl

e Tr

ucks

Lead Distribution of 2‐AT at km. 267+000 Lead Distribution of 3‐AT at km. 267+000

29.00%

32.65%

24.65%

9.25%

2.56% 1.89%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

50-1

00

100-

200

200-

250

250-

500

500-

750

750-

1000

1000

-150

0

1500

-200

0

>200

0

Lead (km)

%ge

of M

ulti

Axl

e Tr

ucks

5.95%

28.69%

17.07%

13.54%12.04%

5.24%

17.47%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0-25 25-50 50-100 100-200 200-250 250-500 >500

Lead (km)

%ge

of C

ar

Lead Distribution of MAV at km. 267+000 Lead Distribution of Car at km. 370+000

55.74%

26.49%

17.77%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-500 >500

Lead (km)

%ge

of M

ini B

us

37.44%

40.32%

5.89%

16.35%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0-50 50-100 100-150 150-200 200-250 250-500 >500

Lead (km)

%ge

of B

us

Lead Distribution of M. Bus at km. 370+000 Lead Distribution of Bus at km. 370+000


26.59%

19.68%

6.83%

3.61%

43.29%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

0-25 25-50 50-100 100-200 200-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000

1000-1500

1500-2000

>2500

Lead (km)

%ge

of L

CV

5.66%

18.34%

21.51%

24.55%

14.52%

7.98%

4.23%3.21%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0-25

25-5

0

50-1

00

100-

200

200-

250

250-

500

500-

750

750-

1000

1000

-150

0

1500

-200

0

>200

0

Lead (km)

%ge

of 2

-Axl

e Tr

ucks

Lead Distribution of LCV at km. 370+000 Lead Distribution of 2‐AT at km. 370+000

5.32%

15.61%14.53%

24.32%

16.30%14.56%

7.64%

1.08% 0.64%0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0-25

25-5

0

50-1

00

100-

200

200-

250

250-

500

500-

750

750-

1000

1000

-150

0

1500

-200

0

>200

0

Lead (km)

%ge

of 3

-Axl

e Tr

ucks

18.52%

49.29%

21.52%

7.35%

1.68% 1.64%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

50-1

00

100-

200

200-

250

250-

500

500-

750

750-

1000

1000

-150

0

1500

-200

0

>200

0

Lead (km)

%ge

of M

ulti

Axl

e Tr

ucks

Lead Distribution of 3‐AT at km. 370+000 Lead Distribution of MAV at km. 370+000

Fig. 1.14 Vehicle‐Wise Lead Distribution at the survey locations

Travel Demand Forecasting

Traffic growth rates for the study, to be used subsequently for forecasting traffic on the

project road, have been estimated by adopting the “Elasticity of Transport Demand”

method which is a proven technique worldwide and is the preferred technique in India.

The method relies on the correlation between

• Past trends in traffic growth on the project road / vehicle registration in the

state, and

• Time series data on population, state income (NSDP) and per capita income (PCI)

for project influence area.


Regression analysis has been done (using past trends on no. of vehicles on road in Uttar

Pradesh and socio‐economic indicators for the period 2002‐2003 to 2007‐2008), to

estimate elasticities for each vehicle type. The elasticity values estimated in this study

are then compared with those suggested in “Road Development Plan: 2021” (Indian

Road Congress, 2001, for Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, GoI) and specific

elasticities are recommended for deriving traffic growth rates and traffic forecasts. The

projected growth rates worked out for major vehicle groups, namely, car, bus and trucks

were moderated based on future economic prospects of the project influence area and

the likely future shift among the vehicle categories. The probable shift of vehicle

ownership from 2‐axle trucks to 3‐axle trucks and MAVs and 2/3 wheeler market to car

have been taken into account while moderating the elasticity values. This is considered

necessary because as the purchasing power increases there will be a shift from low cost

vehicles to high speed, more expensive and more comfortable vehicles. Further, with

the road improvement and realization of economics of scale, goods operators will tend

to transfer from 2‐axle trucks to 3‐Axle/Multi‐axle vehicles. These market driven forces

have been realistically considered in the traffic forecast.

Socio‐Economic Indicators and No. of Vehicles on Road in Uttar Pradesh

The socio‐economic indicators (Net State Domestic Product (NSDP), Population and Per

Capita Income (PCI) and no. of vehicles by vehicle type of Uttar Pradesh has been

collected from various secondary sources.

Table 1.16: Vehicle Registration Data and Socio‐Economic Indicators of Uttar Pradesh

No. of Vehicles (Nos.)* Year

Car Bus Truck

NSDP at 1999‐00 Constant

Prices (in Crores)*

Population (‘000)*

Per Capita Income at 1999‐00

Constant Prices (in Rs.)*

2002 459215 25357 125010 182652 171536 10648

2003 533718 26162 151711 200463 174955 11458

2004 606995 25081 165123 217577 178400 12196

2005 735528 26549 184428 242156 181867 13315

2006 767620 25423 191642 271750 185330 14663

2007 778982 27941 208298 303228 188809 16060 Sources:

* Economics and Statistics Division, Govt. of Uttar Pradesh


From the above, it can be seen that no. of vehicles plying in Uttar Pradesh State has a steady growth and this data has been considered for estimate travel demand elasticities.

Elasticity of Growth

Passenger traffic demand is a function of growth of population, per capita income and

growth of the state. Similarly, state income growth and industrial, mining and

agriculture production mostly governs the freight traffic growth. In line with this

philosophy, the elasticity of traffic demand has been estimated for car, bus and truck

with respect to the past traffic growth. The resultant elasticity values are presented in

the following table.

Table 1.17: Regression Analysis Results

Dependent Variable

Independent Variable

Period Elasticity Value

R2 T ‐ stat.

log of NSDP 2002‐2007 1.087 0.904 6.130 log of Population 2002‐2007 5.857 0.935 7.585 log of Car log of PCI 2002‐2007 1.332 0.895 5.849 log of NSDP 2002‐2007 0.132 0.394 1.613 log of Population 2002‐2007 0.674 0.364 1.514 log of Bus log of PCI 2002‐2007 0.164 0.401 1.635 log of NSDP 2002‐2007 0.933 0.926 7.092 log of Population 2002‐2007 5.019 0.954 9.111

log of Truck

log of PCI 2002‐2007 1.144 0.919 6.720

The elasticity values shown in the above table reflect a substantial co‐relation between

economic indicators and traffic growth rates as reflected in their R2, elasticity and t‐stat

values. Hence, it is appropriate to consider the growth pattern that has emerged out of

the economic model which related the economic growth with the growth in registration

of vehicles. In the next stage, considering the various factors such as likely future

orientation of the economy, modal shift, user preference, developments in vehicle

technology, market driven forces and finally the past performance, the elasticity values

are projected for the analysis period.


Moderated Transport Demand Elasticity The above discussion indicates that the estimated ‘e’ values, as presented in the above

table could not be considered to represent the future growth pattern. Also, the future

traffic growth pattern is likely to be affected by the following factors:

• Recent economic changes taking place in the project influence region.

• Future modal shift among vehicle types, in road traffic as well as between

various modes.

• Development in vehicle technology.

• Elasticity values considered in the recent road projects in the study region or

recommended by multilateral funding institutions for Indian Road/Highway

Projects.

With this background, it is necessary to moderate the elasticity values to accommodate

the above factors discussed as well as to arrive at the growth rates that are within

realistic limits.

The elasticity values with PCI/Population for passenger traffic and with NSDP for goods

traffic are considered. The elasticity value for cars and trucks have been derived by

moderating the values arrived at from the regression analysis of past vehicle registration

data, such that it is in close agreement with the value as specified in the “Road

Development Plan Vision: 2021”, Indian Roads Congress, 2001.The elasticity values

considered for future projection is given below.

Table 1.18: Recommended Elasticity

Sl. No. Vehicle Type 2010‐2014 2015‐2019 2020‐2024 Beyond 2024

1 Car 1.332 1.199 0.959 0.767 2 Bus & Mini 0.947 0.928 0.882 0.705 3 LCV 0.978 0.949 0.901 0.766 4 2‐AT 0.924 0.877 0.807 0.646 5 3‐AT 1.032 0.981 0.902 0.722 6 MAV 1.032 0.981 0.902 0.722


Future Economy Prospects

On‐going economic liberalization measures, introduced in the nineties, were oriented to

make the national economy with a strong competitive base, leading to an open

economy system. With the strengths and weakness of the present system, equipped

with adequate safeguards, Indian economy has performed fairly well during the

liberalization period, as well as before, though the targets were mostly never achieved.

The final growth rates have been derived by establishing a relation between the time

series data available for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country and Net State

Domestic Product (NSDP) of Uttar Pradesh. The GDP growth rate for the future years are

based on the growth rates suggested in “Dreaming with BRICs: the path 2050”’ Global

Economics Paper No.9, Goldman Sachs, 2003.

Considering the following factors such as past performance of the economy against their

set targets, recent developments in economic liberalization measures, shift in between

sectors, opportunities available in local and global markets etc., future economic growth

scenario is formulated for the following time periods.

• 2010 ‐ 2014

• 2015 ‐ 2019

• 2020 ‐ 2024

• Beyond 2024

We feel that any projection beyond 15 years will have little relevance in current context

mainly because there is certain policy variables that could change in long run which

cannot be predicted based on the past performance. Hence, the entire period beyond

2024 has been kept as one slab.

Table 1.19: Future NSDP Growth Rates

Period NSDP Growth Rate (%)

2010‐2014 6.701 2015‐2019 6.352 2020‐2024 6.048 Beyond 2024 6.193


Population Projections

Though, population projections for the future are available from different sources,

however, the state wise population projections prepared by Register General of India

(RGI), Census Department, GoI are found to be more appropriate as a result of the

scientific methodology followed. Population projections prepared by RGI have been

adopted for the present study. The resultant future population growth rates of Uttar

Pradesh are given below.

Table 1.20: Future Population Projections

Period Future Population Growth Rate (%)

2010‐2014 1.740 2015‐2019 1.554 2020‐2024 1.312 Beyond 2024 1.071

Future per Capita Income (PCI)

Future growth of Per Capita Income (PCI) of Uttar Pradesh is summarized as given

below.

Table 1.21: Future per Capita Income

Period Future Per Capita Income Growth Rate

2010‐2014 4.876 2015‐2019 4.725 2020‐2024 4.675 Beyond 2024 5.033

Traffic Growth Rates

Based on the moderated elasticity values and the projected economic/demographic

indicators, the future average annual compound traffic growth rates by vehicle type

have been estimated by using the following formulae and presented in the following

table.


For Cars : Tgr = (PCIgr) x E

For Bus & Mini Bus : Tgr = Average of (NSDPgr) and (PCIgr) x E

For Trucks (LCV, 2‐AT, 3‐AT & MAV): Tgr = (NSDPgr) x E

Where

Tgr ‐ Traffic Growth Rate POPgr ‐ Per‐Capita Income Growth Rate PCIgr ‐ Per‐Capita Income Growth Rate NSDPgr ‐ Net State Domestic Product Growth Rate E ‐ Elasticity Value

Table 1.22: Traffic Growth Rates

Sl. No. Vehicle Type 2010‐2014 2015‐2019 2020‐2024 Beyond 2024

1 Car 6.50 5.66 4.48 3.86 2 Mini Bus & Bus 4.00 3.67 3.24 2.56 3 LCV 6.55 6.03 5.45 4.74 4 2‐AT 6.19 5.57 4.88 4.00 5 3‐AT 6.92 6.23 5.46 4.47 1 MAV 6.92 6.23 5.46 4.47

Tollable Traffic Distribution Analysis

As per rule no. 9 (regarding discounts to tollable traffic) of the notification released by

MoRTH, vide GSR 838 (E), dated 5th December 2008, the concessionaire has to give

discounts to the traffic crossing the toll plaza based on their distribution. The same has

duly considered in the present study and after a thorough analysis of the O‐D data, the

following distribution of tollable traffic has arrived.

Table 1.23: Tollable Traffic Distribution at km. 267+000

Distribution of Tollable Traffic (%) of AADT Sl.

No.

Vehicle

Type Local

Monthly

Through

Traffic

Return/Round

Trip

Monthly Pass

(50 Single Journeys)

At Toll Plaza 1: km. 267+000 1 Car 15 54 11 20 2 Mini Bus N/A 25 12 63 3 Bus N/A 05 04 91 4 LCV N/A 96 03 01 5 2‐AT N/A 98 01 01 6 3‐AT N/A 99 01 00 7 MAV N/A 100 00 00


Distribution of Tollable Traffic (%) of AADT Sl.

No.

Vehicle

Type Local

Monthly

Through

Traffic

Return/Round

Trip

Monthly Pass

(50 Single Journeys)

At Toll Plaza 2: km. 370+000 1 Car 6 63 12 19 2 Mini Bus N/A 25 0 75 3 Bus N/A 35 01 64 4 LCV N/A 97 02 01 5 2‐AT N/A 98 01 01 6 3‐AT N/A 100 00 00 7 MAV N/A 100 00 00

Tollable Traffic Projections

Tollable traffic at both the proposed toll plaza locations viz at km. 267.000 and km.

370.000 for the next 30 years are presented below. Detailed calculations are given in

Annexure 1.3.


Table 1.24 (a): LOCAL MONTHLY PASS TRAFFIC AT TOLL PLAZA 1 (km. 267.000)

Year Car Mini Bus

Bus LCV 2‐AT 3‐AT MAV (4‐6 Axles)

MAV (>6 Axles)

Total Tollable Vehicles

Total Tollable PCUs

2010 347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 347 347

2011 370 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 370 370

2012 394 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 394 394

2013 420 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 420 420

2014 447 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 447 447

2015 472 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 472 472

2016 499 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 499 499

2017 527 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 527 527

2018 557 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 557 557

2019 589 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 589 589

2020 615 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 615 615

2021 643 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 643 643

2022 672 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 672 672

2023 702 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 702 702

2024 733 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 733 733

2025 761 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 761 761

2026 790 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 790 790

2027 820 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 820 820

2028 852 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 852 852

2029 885 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 885 885

2030 919 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 919 919

2031 954 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 954 954

2032 991 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 991 991

2033 1029 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1029 1029

2034 1069 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1069 1069

2035 1110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1110 1110

2036 1153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1153 1153

2037 1198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1198 1198

2038 1244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1244 1244

2039 1292 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1292 1292

2040 1342 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1342 1342


Table 1.24 (b): THROUGH TRAFFIC AT TOLL PLAZA 1 (km. 267.000)

Year Car Mini Bus


MAV (>6 Axles)


Total Tollable PCUs

2010 1250 18 27 1192 2473 2915 526 0 8399 21674

2011 1331 18 28 1270 2626 3116 562 0 8951 23102

2012 1418 19 29 1353 2789 3332 601 0 9541 24631

2013 1510 20 30 1442 2962 3563 643 0 10170 26262

2014 1608 21 31 1536 3145 3810 687 0 10838 27993

2015 1699 22 32 1629 3320 4047 730 0 11479 29658

2016 1795 23 33 1727 3505 4299 775 0 12157 31419

2017 1897 24 34 1831 3700 4567 823 0 12876 33286

2018 2004 25 35 1941 3906 4852 874 0 13637 35265

2019 2117 26 36 2058 4124 5154 928 0 14443 37361

2020 2212 27 37 2170 4325 5435 979 0 15185 39304

2021 2311 28 38 2288 4536 5732 1032 0 15965 41347

2022 2415 29 39 2413 4757 6045 1088 0 16786 43497

2023 2523 30 40 2545 4989 6375 1147 0 17649 45759

2024 2636 31 41 2684 5232 6723 1210 0 18557 48142

2025 2738 32 42 2811 5441 7024 1264 0 19352 50212

2026 2844 33 43 2944 5659 7338 1321 0 20182 52374

2027 2954 34 44 3084 5885 7666 1380 0 21047 54626

2028 3068 35 45 3230 6120 8009 1442 0 21949 56977

2029 3186 36 46 3383 6365 8367 1506 0 22889 59426

2030 3309 37 47 3543 6620 8741 1573 0 23870 61982

2031 3437 38 48 3711 6885 9132 1643 0 24894 64649

2032 3570 39 49 3887 7160 9540 1716 0 25961 67428

2033 3708 40 50 4071 7446 9966 1793 0 27074 70329

2034 3851 41 51 4264 7744 10411 1873 0 28235 73355

2035 4000 42 52 4466 8054 10876 1957 0 29447 76515

2036 4154 43 53 4678 8376 11362 2044 0 30710 79807

2037 4314 44 54 4900 8711 11870 2135 0 32028 83243

2038 4481 45 55 5132 9059 12401 2230 0 33403 86827

2039 4654 46 56 5375 9421 12955 2330 0 34837 90567

2040 4834 47 57 5630 9798 13534 2434 0 36334 94470


Table 1.24 (c): RETURN/ROUND TRAFFIC AT TOLL PLAZA 1 (km. 267.000)

Year Car Mini Bus


MAV (>6 Axles)


Total Tollable PCUs

2010 255 8 22 37 25 29 0 0 376 552

2011 271 9 22 40 27 31 0 0 400 585

2012 289 9 23 43 29 33 0 0 426 622

2013 308 9 24 46 31 35 0 0 453 661

2014 328 9 25 49 33 37 0 0 481 700

2015 347 9 26 52 35 39 0 0 508 739

2016 367 9 27 55 37 41 0 0 536 778

2017 388 9 28 58 39 44 0 0 566 822

2018 410 9 29 61 41 47 0 0 597 866

2019 433 9 30 65 43 50 0 0 630 913

2020 452 9 31 69 45 53 0 0 659 956

2021 472 9 32 73 47 56 0 0 689 1000

2022 493 9 33 77 49 59 0 0 720 1045

2023 515 9 34 81 51 62 0 0 752 1091

2024 538 9 35 85 53 65 0 0 785 1138

2025 559 9 36 89 55 68 0 0 816 1183

2026 581 9 37 93 57 71 0 0 848 1229

2027 603 9 38 97 59 74 0 0 880 1275

2028 626 9 39 102 61 77 0 0 914 1324

2029 650 9 40 107 63 80 0 0 949 1373

2030 675 9 41 112 66 84 0 0 987 1430

2031 701 9 42 117 69 88 0 0 1026 1487

2032 728 9 43 123 72 92 0 0 1067 1547

2033 756 9 44 129 75 96 0 0 1109 1608

2034 785 9 45 135 78 100 0 0 1152 1670

2035 815 9 46 141 81 104 0 0 1196 1733

2036 846 9 47 148 84 109 0 0 1243 1802

2037 879 9 48 155 87 114 0 0 1292 1872

2038 913 9 49 162 90 119 0 0 1342 1944

2039 948 9 50 170 94 124 0 0 1395 2021

2040 985 9 51 178 98 130 0 0 1451 2103


Table 1.24 (d): MONTHLY PASS TRAFFIC (50 SINGLE JOURNEY) AT TOLL PLAZA 1 (km. 267.000)

Year Car Mini Bus


MAV (>6 Axles)


Total Tollable PCUs

2010 463 44 491 12 25 0 0 0 1036 2097

2011 493 46 511 13 27 0 0 0 1090 2196

2012 525 48 531 14 29 0 0 0 1147 2298

2013 559 50 552 15 31 0 0 0 1207 2406

2014 595 52 574 16 33 0 0 0 1270 2518

2015 629 54 595 17 35 0 0 0 1330 2626

2016 665 56 617 18 37 0 0 0 1393 2738

2017 703 58 640 19 39 0 0 0 1459 2856

2018 743 60 663 20 41 0 0 0 1527 2975

2019 785 62 687 21 43 0 0 0 1598 3100

2020 820 64 709 22 45 0 0 0 1660 3211

2021 857 66 732 23 47 0 0 0 1725 3328

2022 895 68 756 24 49 0 0 0 1792 3448

2023 935 70 780 25 51 0 0 0 1861 3571

2024 977 72 805 26 53 0 0 0 1933 3698

2025 1015 74 826 27 55 0 0 0 1997 3810

2026 1054 76 847 28 57 0 0 0 2062 3922

2027 1095 78 869 29 59 0 0 0 2130 4040

2028 1137 80 891 30 61 0 0 0 2199 4158

2029 1181 82 914 31 63 0 0 0 2271 4282

2030 1227 84 937 32 66 0 0 0 2346 4410

2031 1274 86 961 34 69 0 0 0 2424 4544

2032 1323 88 986 36 72 0 0 0 2505 4683

2033 1374 90 1011 38 75 0 0 0 2588 4824

2034 1427 92 1037 40 78 0 0 0 2674 4970

2035 1482 94 1064 42 81 0 0 0 2763 5121

2036 1539 96 1091 44 84 0 0 0 2854 5274

2037 1598 98 1119 46 87 0 0 0 2948 5432

2038 1660 101 1148 48 90 0 0 0 3047 5598

2039 1724 104 1177 50 94 0 0 0 3149 5768

2040 1791 107 1207 52 98 0 0 0 3255 5945


Table 1.25 (a): LOCAL MONTHLY PASS TRAFFIC AT TOLL PLAZA 2 (km. 370.000)

Year Car Mini Bus


MAV (>6 Axles)


Total Tollable PCUs

2010 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 80 80

2011 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 85 85

2012 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 91 91

2013 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 97 97

2014 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 103 103

2015 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 109 109

2016 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 115 115

2017 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 122 122

2018 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 129 129

2019 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 136 136

2020 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 142 142

2021 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 148 148

2022 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 155 155

2023 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 162 162

2024 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 169 169

2025 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 176 176

2026 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 183 183

2027 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 190 190

2028 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 197 197

2029 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 205 205

2030 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 213 213

2031 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 221 221

2032 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 230 230

2033 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 239 239

2034 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 248 248

2035 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 258 258

2036 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 268 268

2037 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 278 278

2038 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 289 289

2039 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 300 300

2040 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 312 312


Table 1.25 (b): THROUGH TRAFFIC AT TOLL PLAZA 2 (km. 370.000)

Year Car Mini Bus


MAV (>6 Axles)


Total Tollable PCUs

2010 842 9 109 1158 2260 2870 515 0 7762 20625

2011 897 9 113 1234 2400 3069 551 0 8273 21987

2012 955 9 118 1315 2549 3281 589 0 8816 23436

2013 1017 9 123 1401 2707 3508 630 0 9395 24981

2014 1083 9 128 1493 2875 3751 674 0 10013 26631

2015 1144 9 133 1583 3035 3985 716 0 10605 28213

2016 1209 9 138 1678 3204 4233 761 0 11232 29889

2017 1277 9 143 1779 3382 4497 808 0 11895 31661

2018 1349 9 148 1886 3570 4777 858 0 12597 33538

2019 1425 9 153 2000 3769 5075 911 0 13342 35529

2020 1489 9 158 2109 3953 5352 961 0 14031 37380

2021 1556 9 163 2224 4146 5644 1013 0 14755 39323

2022 1626 9 168 2345 4348 5952 1068 0 15516 41367

2023 1699 9 173 2473 4560 6277 1126 0 16317 43519

2024 1775 9 179 2608 4783 6620 1187 0 17161 45788

2025 1844 9 184 2732 4974 6916 1240 0 17899 47758

2026 1915 9 189 2861 5173 7225 1295 0 18667 49809

2027 1989 9 194 2997 5380 7548 1353 0 19470 51953

2028 2066 9 199 3139 5595 7885 1413 0 20306 54184

2029 2146 9 204 3288 5819 8237 1476 0 21179 56514

2030 2229 9 209 3444 6052 8605 1542 0 22090 58946

2031 2315 9 214 3607 6294 8990 1611 0 23040 61483

2032 2404 9 219 3778 6546 9392 1683 0 24031 64129

2033 2497 9 225 3957 6808 9812 1758 0 25066 66892

2034 2593 9 231 4145 7080 10251 1837 0 26146 69777

2035 2693 9 237 4341 7363 10709 1919 0 27271 72781

2036 2797 9 243 4547 7658 11188 2005 0 28447 75921

2037 2905 9 249 4763 7964 11688 2095 0 29673 79194

2038 3017 9 255 4989 8283 12210 2189 0 30952 82609

2039 3133 9 262 5225 8614 12756 2287 0 32286 86172

2040 3254 9 269 5473 8959 13326 2389 0 33679 89890


Table 1.25 (c): RETURN/ROUND TRAFFIC AT TOLL PLAZA 2 (km. 370.000)

Year Car Mini Bus


MAV (>6 Axles)


Total Tollable PCUs

2010 160 0 3 24 23 0 0 0 210 275

2011 171 0 3 25 24 0 0 0 223 290

2012 182 0 3 27 25 0 0 0 237 307

2013 194 0 3 29 27 0 0 0 253 328

2014 207 0 3 31 29 0 0 0 270 350

2015 219 0 3 33 31 0 0 0 286 371

2016 231 0 3 35 33 0 0 0 302 392

2017 244 0 3 37 35 0 0 0 319 414

2018 258 0 3 39 37 0 0 0 337 437

2019 273 0 3 41 39 0 0 0 356 461

2020 285 0 3 43 41 0 0 0 372 482

2021 298 0 3 45 43 0 0 0 389 504

2022 311 0 3 47 45 0 0 0 406 526

2023 325 0 3 50 47 0 0 0 425 550

2024 340 0 3 53 49 0 0 0 445 576

2025 353 0 3 56 51 0 0 0 463 599

2026 367 0 3 59 53 0 0 0 482 624

2027 381 0 3 62 55 0 0 0 501 648

2028 396 0 3 65 57 0 0 0 521 674

2029 411 0 3 68 59 0 0 0 541 699

2030 427 0 3 71 61 0 0 0 562 726

2031 443 0 3 74 63 0 0 0 583 752

2032 460 0 3 78 66 0 0 0 607 784

2033 478 0 3 82 69 0 0 0 632 817

2034 496 0 3 86 72 0 0 0 657 850

2035 515 0 3 90 75 0 0 0 683 884

2036 535 0 3 94 78 0 0 0 710 919

2037 556 0 3 98 81 0 0 0 738 955

2038 577 0 3 103 84 0 0 0 767 993

2039 599 0 3 108 87 0 0 0 797 1031

2040 622 0 3 113 90 0 0 0 828 1071


Table 1.25 (d): MONTHLY PASS TRAFFIC (50 SINGLE JOURNEY) AT TOLL PLAZA 2 (km. 370.000)

Year Car Mini Bus


MAV (>6 Axles)


Total Tollable PCUs

2010 254 26 198 12 23 0 0 0 513 975

2011 271 27 206 13 24 0 0 0 541 1021

2012 289 28 214 14 25 0 0 0 570 1069

2013 308 29 223 15 27 0 0 0 602 1124

2014 328 30 232 16 29 0 0 0 635 1180

2015 347 31 241 17 31 0 0 0 667 1235

2016 367 32 250 18 33 0 0 0 700 1291

2017 388 33 259 19 35 0 0 0 734 1348

2018 410 34 269 20 37 0 0 0 770 1409

2019 433 35 279 21 39 0 0 0 807 1471

2020 452 36 288 22 41 0 0 0 839 1526

2021 472 37 297 23 43 0 0 0 872 1582

2022 493 38 307 24 45 0 0 0 907 1642

2023 515 39 317 25 47 0 0 0 943 1703

2024 538 40 327 26 49 0 0 0 980 1765

2025 559 41 335 27 51 0 0 0 1013 1819

2026 581 42 344 28 53 0 0 0 1048 1877

2027 603 43 353 29 55 0 0 0 1083 1935

2028 626 44 362 30 57 0 0 0 1119 1994

2029 650 45 371 31 59 0 0 0 1156 2054

2030 675 46 380 32 61 0 0 0 1194 2115

2031 701 47 390 34 63 0 0 0 1235 2182

2032 728 48 400 36 66 0 0 0 1278 2252

2033 756 49 410 38 69 0 0 0 1322 2324

2034 785 50 420 40 72 0 0 0 1367 2396

2035 815 51 431 42 75 0 0 0 1414 2473

2036 846 52 442 44 78 0 0 0 1462 2550

2037 879 53 453 46 81 0 0 0 1512 2630

2038 913 54 465 48 84 0 0 0 1564 2713

2039 948 55 477 50 87 0 0 0 1617 2798

2040 985 56 489 52 90 0 0 0 1672 2884


COMPARISION OF TRAFFIC DATA


Comparison of Traffic Data

Based on the traffic report presented above, the consultant has compared the tollable

AADT in the year 2010. w.r.t. tolled vehicles with that presented by M/s ERA and the

result of comparison is as given below in Table 1.15.

For this comparison, the tollable traffic of ERA in the year 2009 has been projected by

5% to arrive the traffic in 2010.

Table 1.26: Comparison of AADT

At km. 267.000 At km. 370.000

AADT (Veh) in 2010 AADT (PCU) in 2010 Vehicle Type

GIFFORD ERA GIFFORD ERA Car, Jeep, Taxi and

Van 2314 2060 1337 1263

Mini Bus 70 65 34 28 Bus 540 498 310 835 LCV 1242 1188 1194 1127 2‐Axle Truck 2523 2458 2306 2226 3‐Axle Truck 2944 2911 2870 3010

MAV (4‐6 Axles) 526 519 515 507

MAV (> 6 Axles) 0 0 0 0 Total (Vehicle) 10159 9699 8566 8996 Total (PCU) 24670 23876 21955 23490


CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATION


Conclusion & Recommendation

The traffic report is prepared based on 7 Day Volume Count conducted at 2 proposed

toll plaza locations i.e, km 267.00 & km 370.00. Based on the traffic survey done at site,

Average Daily Traffic (ADT) and Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) are worked out.

Traffic demand forecasting for the project road is worked out based on Socio‐Economic

Indicators, Elasticity of Growth, Population Projections, Future Per Capita Income (PCI)

and Traffic Growth Rates. A comparison of traffic data as collected during the present

study is compared with that done by M/s ERA and the results are summarised below:

Km 267.00: AADT as per present study is around 4.65 % & 3.34 % more than that of M/s

ERA in Nos. & PCU respectively.

Km 377.00: AADT as per present study is around 4.82 % & 6.52 % less than that of M/s

ERA in Nos. & PCU respectively because of the variation of Bus Traffic

However the average tollable traffic of the present study at both the locations, in Nos.

& PCU are very closely in line with results presented by M/s ERA Report.

Documents

Traffic Review Report F 18.09