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Tran Thi Ut
Faculty of Economics,
UAF, HCM City, VN
Green Revolution In Asia And Its Transferability To Africa
Tokyo, Japan
8-10, December 2002
Introduction
The stagnation rice production in 1960s-70sRapid growth of rice production in 1980s-90s The effects of “miracle rice” and the “Doi Moi”
policies in rice production from 1980s-1990sPurposes of the paper:to assess the relative contribution of the “Doi Moi”
and other reform policies using regional datato explore whether GR has been sustainable in the
country ? to examine the yield gap between favorable and
unfavorable rice production area to inquire what factor affect yield using HH level data
MV Adoption and Yield Changes in VN
MV adoption
Southern VN -May 1966, IR8 was first introduced and was renamed to
Than Nong 8 (TN8)(Than Nong :Miracle rice), - in 1975 : 33% rice area with MV
Northern VN - In 1968 IR 8 was introduced and was renamed to Nong
Nghiep 8 (NN8) (Nong Nghiep: Agriculture) - IR8 was adopted to the winter-spring 1968, covered
50% rice area
Table 1. Adoption of MVs and TVs in Southern Vietnam, 1968-75
Sources: a National Statistical Institute, Saigon, 1974. b Estimated from Rice Department, Saigon, 1974.
Cropping season
MV adoption
area (1,000 ha) a
TV adoption
area (1,000 ha)
Total rice
area b (1,000 ha)
Percentage of MV
adoption (%)
1968-69 23 2,370 2,394 1.0 1969-70 204 2,226 2,430 8.4 1970-71 452 1,959 2,411 18.8 1971-72 675 1,836 2,510 26.9 1972-73 835 1,865 2,700 30.9 1973-74 890 1,860 2,750 32.4 1974-75 950 1,900 2,850 33.3
Problem of MV1 and the introduction of MV2
1972: IR8 & IR5 were affected by BPH and were replaced by TN73-1 (IR1529-6-80), TN73-2 (IR 1561-22-8), IR26 , IR30. 1978: 700,000 ha of rice areas planted to MVs in MRD were damaged by BPH and ragged stunt disease, and IR36 with strong resistance to new BPH was rapidly introduced.Can Tho University developed a new series of MVs with good grain quality and strong resistance to new BPH from 300 line crosses with cultivars containing the BPH-resistance gene from IRRI.IR42 has shown great suitability and virtually replace the traditional medium –height rice varieties in saline-affected rainfed rice field with semi-deep water in MRD.1980s : IR1820-210-2 (IRRI) and CR203(VASI) with highly resistant to blast were widely planted for the blast prone areas in northern VN.
Fig 1a. Changes in MV Adoption and Yields of Rice per Hectare in Northern
Vietnam
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year
Yie
ld (
ton
s/h
a)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MV
rati
o (
%)
Yield
MV ratio
Fig. 1a. Changes in MV Adoption and Yields of Rice per Hectare in Southern
Vietnam 1980-98
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.568
-69
69-7
070
-71
71-7
272
-73
73-7
474
-75
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Year
Yie
ld (
ton
s/h
a)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
MV
rat
io (
%)
Yield MV ratio
=.
Fig.2 Location of major rice growing regions
North Mountain Highland
Red River Delta
North Central Coast
South Central Coast
Central Highland
North East South
Mekong River Delta
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
NMH
NCC
Table 2. Changes in Total Rice Area and MV Adoption by Major Ecological Region in
Selected Years from 1980 to 1998
Adoption Rate of MVs (%)
Year
Total Rice Area (1000
ha) Avg.
NMH RRD NCC SCC CH NES MRD
1980 5,543 16.9 4.7 52.9 10.1 17.3 2.3 9.3 9.7
1985 5,703 28.5 6.4 68.4 11.8 23.0 9.8 16.3 26.4
1990 6,028 47.5 30.8 78.5 17.6 47.6 44.3 41.3 48.3
1995 6,766 76.2 63.8 90.5 62.0 60.8 75.2 79.7 79.8
1998 7,362 87.2 81.2 92.2 87.1 81.9 83.0 91.3 87.7
Table 3. Yield of MVs and TVs (tons/ha) by Major Ecological Region , 1980-1998
NMH RRD NCC SCC CH NES MRD
MVs TVs MVs TVs MVs
TVs MVs TVs MVs TV MVs TVs MVs TVs
1980 2.1 1.3 2.6 2.0 1.6 1.3 2.4 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.2 2.0 2.5 2.3 1985 2.6 2.1 3.2 2.3 2.4 2.1 3.4 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.1 1990 2.9 2.4 3.8 2.1 2.6 2.4 3.5 3.0 2.8 1.9 2.8 2.4 4.0 3.4 1995 3.1 3.0 4.7 2.0 3.2 3.0 3.8 2.8 2.8 1.5 2.8 2.1 4.2 3.3 1998 3.4 2.5 5.3 3.1 3.7 2.5 3.7 2.5 3.0 0.9 3.0 1.5 4.3 2.8
Development of MVs in VN
Shorten the growth duration: OM1490 , OMCS96 (85-90 days)
Saline tolerance THDB (mutant from TVs)
Developed a series MVs with resistance to pest and diseases for IRG areas, and tolerance of salinity and acid sulfate for rainfed areas
Estimation Results of Yield Regression
The model
Ln yit = a0+ a1 MVit + i MVit (Regional Dummy)i +
i (Regional Dummy)i + t (Year Dummy)t + it .The results MV adoption dummy is positive and significant in 1980-98 MV*regional dummies are all negative and significant Coefficient of MV dummy is significantly larger for 1980s than for 1990s The coefficients of MV*NMH, MV*NCC, MV*SCC are neg. and became larger from 1980s to 1990s The coefficients of MV*NES and MV*MRD remained largely in 1980s and 1990sCoefficients of year dummies are positive and significant in 1980s but not so in 1990s compare with the base year 1980
-
Implication of Regression Results
Green Revolution in Vietnam has been sustained by continuous improvement of MVs particularly for relatively favorable rice areas such as in RRD and MRD
Table 5. Basic Characteristics of Sample Villages
and Sample Size of Households
Yield
(ton/ha)
Province District Village Agro-
ecosystem
S. size
Dry Wet
Thai Nguyen
(NMH)
Dai Tu
Dong Hy
Hung Son
Quang Son
IRG. H.land
Rfed .Hland
48
45(38)a
4.6
3.4
4.1
3.5
Hanoi (RRD)
Gia Lam Soc Son
Dong Du Bac Phu
IRG Lland
Rfed L.land
50 50
5.0 3.0
4.2 1.6
Long An (Outer Reg. MRD)
C. Giuoc C. Giuoc
My Loc V.Dong
IRG.L.land
Rfed.Lland
44 50
3.2 2.0
3.5 2.3
Can Tho (MRD)
T.Not
T.Not
Th.An
Th. Thang
IRG.L.land
IRG.Lland
44
45
6.7 7.0
4.5 4.2
Total 376
Table 6. Socio-Economic Characteristics of
Sample Households
Irrigated lowland
Irrigated highland
Rainfed lowland
Rainfed highland
N.sample households 183 48 100 38 Total farm size (ha) 0.94 0.18 0.49 1.37 Rice area (ha) 0.89 0.18 0.36 0.29 Rice cropping intensity
1.98 1.99 1.23 1.21
Age of HH heads 50.1 51.0 44.3 37.2 Schooling of HH heads
5.8 5.8 6.3 5.5
Proportion of fem. heads
20 19 25 47
HH. size (persons) 5.1 5.5 5.2 5.6 Number of workers (15-60 year old)
3.5 3.2 3.2 3.6
Table 7. MV Adoption, Rice Yields, and Fertilizer Application Across Production Environments by Cropping Season a
Irrigated
lowland Irrigated highland
Rainfed lowland
Rainfed highland
MV Adoption (%) Dry season Wet season
99 96
96
100
67 98
89 94
Yield of MVs (ton/ha) Dry season 5.49 (176) 4.63 (48) 3.03 (50) 3.27 (16) Wet season 4.12 (181) 4.09 (48) 1.90 (62) 3.46 (35)
Yield of TVs (ton/ha) Dry season 3.96 (7) n.a. c -- b -- b Wet season -- b n.a. c 2.10 (31) 3.52 (3)
Total fertilizer cost (million VN dong per ha) Dry season Wet season
1.12 (182) 1.03 (181)
1.98 (48) 1.66 (48)
1.28 (51) 0.73 (78)
1.12 (12) 0.73 (35)
Fertilizer in Active Ingredients (Kg/ha)
Dry season 193.7 189.0 125.1 32.3 Wet season 168.4 157.1 125.3 127.1
a Numbers in parentheses are the number of observations. b Numbers of observations are too few (i.e., one or two). c Not applicable.
Estimation of MV Adoption, Fertilizer Application and Yield Function
MV Adoption function- Tobit model (Table 8)
- Dependent Var: Ratio of areas planted to MVs to total rice planted area
- Exp.Variables: IRG dummy, Regional dummies,
Total farm size, Age, Schooling,Family worker, gender of HH heads, dry season dummy .
Results of Adoption Function of MVs
IRG dummy : highly significant particularly for the South VN where irrigation is needed and drainage in dry season and drainage is needed during flooding time in MRD
Three regional dummies : highly significant in North, lower in Outer MRD: MV adoption is high in areas with irrigation and favorable environment.
Paddy area, number of worker, female head dummy are sig.
Environmental factors largely determine the adoption of MVs in 1990s
Fertilizer applicationFertilizer application function whole reigion, North and South
- IRG dummy and two northern region dummy are positive - Outer Mekong Delta dummy :neg. significant due to salinity
and fooding - NMH, RRD dummies were highly sig. Partly due to
restoration of soil fertility brought about by flooding in MRD - Age of HH heads : sig positive –Farmers’ experiences is a
crucial role in Fer. application - Schooling is non sig. : Farmer experiences in rice production
plays a crucial role than schooling
Determinant of rice yield Yield function for whole region, North and South (Table 10)
- IRG dummy positive significant
-The three regional dummies have neg. significant coefficients (equation 1) due to the higher yield in MRD with availability of irrigation water and effective water control
- Total paddy areas is insignificant in equation 1, neg. significant in North, weakly sig. positive in South: Farm size should not effect resource allocation and yields.
- Age: neg. effect-
Concluding RemarksGreen Revolution began in favorable areas and spread to less favorable areas over timeIn VN, Green Revolution started in the late 1970s (whole the country) after the war when the MV2 with resistant to pest and diseases were already availableGreen Revolution has been sustained up to the end of 1990sNational agriculture research system played a criticaly important role in developing location -specific appropriate technologies
Remaining issues
There is needed to analyze the origin and timing of various MVs application
To assess the effects of MV cum irrigation technologies on total factor productivity
Thank you