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Transformation of the LEWS Program to a Livestock Information Network
& Knowledge System (LINKS)…..extending the technical and human capacity developed for livestock early warning systems to meet market information needs and decision support for livestock producers in East Africa
Lead Institution:Texas A&M University System
Global Livestock CRSPLINKS
Dr. Jerry Stuth, PI
Precipitation
Throughfall
Plant Interception(Evaporation)
Stem Flow
Surface PondingEvaporation
Infiltration
InfiltrationSoil
Evaporation
Runoff
Water TableDeep Percolation
Water Channel
Lateral Flow
Transpiration
Transpiration
Min/Max TemperatureSolar Radiation
PHYGROW Model…a hydrologic based forage production model that accommodates multiple plantsand multiple grazers
Selective GrazingWith Stocking Density Rules
PHYGROWModel Servers
GeostatisticalAnalysis
Climate Imagery
Regional ForageMaps
MinTemperature
Max Temperature
Rainfall
Site Analysis with 90-Day Forecasting
Integration of Models and Imagery
TsavoAbove Normal
MakinduAlert
Predicted -48 %Observed -52 %
Predicted -57 %Observed -45 %
How stable arethe predictions?
On March 1, 2003 two highly contrastinglocations in near proximity were contrastedand later compared with current predictionson May 20, 2003
Forage ConditionsLate May 2003
Expected ChangeIn Forage Conditions
by July 2003
NASAGoddard
NDVI
USGS/EROSFEWS NET
METEOSAT7Infrared Data
Pathfinder AVHRR
WorldSpaceFoundation
ServerALIN
RANET
TAMU-CNRITServer
LEWS AnalysisPortal
(PHYGROW, MappingAutomation)
ASARECACMO @
AfriStarSatellite
NOAA ClimatePrediction CenterRFE Weather Server Data
CD’s
MonitoringEntity
Satellite RadioLinked to PC
Internet
LEWS ASARECA PARTNERS
Ethiopia – Ethiopian Agricultural Research OrganizationKenya – KARI, ALRMP, Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Dev.Tanzania – Ministry of Water and Livestock DevelopmentUganda – National Agricultural Research Organization
OTHER LEWS PARTNERS
ASARECA Animal Research Network Crisis Mitigation OfficeInternational Livestock Research InstituteRegional Center for Mapping Resource DevelopmentDrought Monitoring CenterFamine Early Warning Systems NetworkIntergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD)Arid Land Information Network (ALIN)ACMADRANETFARMAFRICAMpala Research Centre
Building LEWS Regional Teams and Capacity
Vegetation Diversity in East Africa
Mpwapwa, Tanzania
Kiboko, KenyaMbarara, Uganda
Adami Tulu, Ethiopia
Regional NIRS Diet:Fecal Studies
0100200300400500600700800900
100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100
100 150 200 250 300 350
Day of Simulation
He
rba
ce
ou
s S
tan
din
g C
rop
(k
g/h
a)
Actual
PHYGROW
R2 = .85
PHYGROW Validation
Forage Estimation
Vegetation Characterization
Predicted herbaceous standing crop (kg/ha) verses actual clipped standing crop under grazing
Stakeholder Harmonization and Site Monitor Training
Building Institutional Awareness
Building Community Awareness and Confidence
Understanding Community Perception of LEWS Relative to their Forage Situation
• Minister (L&W) supportive, LEWS included in Government Budget 2003/4
• A LEWS office being set up and personnel appointed to facilitate linkages (PM office, Food Security Dept. , other EWS)
• Livestock Early Warning alerts reported at monthly management meetings at the Ministry
• Training at national level for policy makers planned
• Markets improved, Tanzania Livestock Marketing Project to be an agency
Rehabilitated Market
Institutional Commitment
PARIMA-LEWSPastoral Livestock Marketing
Joint Study
Objective: Identifying feasible interventions to
convert mortality losses into marketed offtake
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
% b
egin
nin
g p
eriod s
tocks
1980-811984-851988-891992-931996-97Years
Marketing and MortalitySouthern Ethiopian pastoralists
mortality
net sales
Two issues: 1. What factors limit pastoralists' marketed off-take response? 2. What might be done to foster more responsive pastoral
livestock marketing systems by relaxing those constraints?
Desta 1999
Drought Monitoring Center - Nairobi
Regional Center for MappingResource Development - Nairobi
Columbia University
AU-IBAR - Nairobi
Texas A&MUniversity
East Africa
Rift Valley Fever Working GroupRed Sea Livestock Trade Commission
Livestock Information Network and Knowledge System
For Enhanced Pastoral Livelihoods in East Africa
Core Program – Design and deploy new communication and information technology to create a livestock information system (LINKS) to supportdecision making at multiple scales from policy makers to pastoralcommunities within livestock market chains of Eastern
Module 1 – Expand the forecasting capacity of LINKS via the development of a spatial model of livestock movement and market offtake given constraintsof forage, water, disease, conflict and market prices
Module 2 – Capacity Building/Institutionalization of LINKS system withinpartner institutions
Livestock InformationNetwork and Knowledge
System
1) Livestock Market Locations 2) Livestock Movement Routes3) Water Capacity Along Routes 4) Cross Border Movement5) Forage Conditions6) Disease Quarantine Zones7) Transport Network8) Seasonal Migratory Patterns of Livestock9) Livestock Prices and Volume...and many more
0 100 200 300 40050Kilometers
1:5,005,381±
!( Major Livestock Collection Cemters
Accessibility (Travel Time)High : 36 Hours Low : 0 HoursNatural_Waterbodies
Road TypeConnectorsPrimary and secondary roadsTracks, trails, or footpaths
Updated Livestock Statistics1998-2000
Updated Water InfrastructureFor Livestock Markets Database
Legend
Lakes
Heads/Sq Km
High : 627
Low : 0
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WAJIR
MARSABIT
ISIOLO
MANDERA
GARISSA
SAMBURU
TURKANA
LAIKIPIA
BARINGO
NYERIKITUI
TANA RIVERNAKURU
MERU
NYAMBENE
THARAKA
KOIBATEK
MERU SOUTH
NYANDARUA
EMBUKIRINYAGAMBEERE
Pesi
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Poro
Fino
UranBori Odda
Korr
Diff
Buna
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Merti
Marti
Wamba
Neboi
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Elwak
Dujis
Liboi
Walda
Dabel
Turbi
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Meeri
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Eldas
Mutara
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Sirima
Naibor
Ngobit
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Sipili
Eldera
BulesaKisima
Kotulo
Arabia
Hullow
Banisa
Takaba
Dadaab
Golole
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I llaut
Dukana
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Sebule
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Kotulo
Griftu
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I lpolei
Lamuria
SalaamaOljabet
OlmoranKipsing
Gafarsa
KorbesaSericho
Hambalo
Jaldesa
Sagante
Merille
Kalacha
Maikona
Gerille
Abakore
Wagalla
IlngwesiMakurian
Kimanjoi
Marmanet
Rumuruti
Kulamawe
Barsaloi
Khalalio
Eldanaba
Wargadud
Hagadera
Logologo
Ngurunit
Laisamis
Wargadud
NturukumaNyahururu
Malkadaka
Oldonyiro
Modogashe
Sereolipi
Malkamari
Dagahaley
Wajir-Bor
Arbajahan
HabasweinIresa Boru
Ngare Mara
South HorrSouth Horr
North Horr
Malka Galla
Garba Tulla
Isiolo Town
Bisan Biliku
Archers Post
Maralal Town
Khorof-Harar
Suguta Marmar
Maundu-Ni-Meri
Marsabit Urban
Dambala Fachana
Mandera Township
Livestock Market & Information System