Transformation of Waste into Energy in the Pabna Municipality Area of Bangladesh: An Approach of First Order

Decay Model

January 10, 2015

Md. Hafiz Iqbal

Graduate Student

Climate Change and Development (CCD)

E-mail: vaskoriqbal@yahoo.com

Independent University

Dhaka, Bangladesh

1. Why Waste Matters for Pabna: Health, Climate and Environmental Implications

Challenges & Drivers

Baseline Scenario

Projected Waste Trends

Research Questions & Objectives

Conceptual Framework for Enalysis

Methodology

Policy Implications

Fakirpul dumping area, Pabna Municipality Area

Non-functioning treatment Open burning

Human health

• Pabna municipality area has been experiencing rapid population and economic growth which has led to unprecedented levels of consumption and consequently waste generation . • This area is facing waste management crisis as landfills are nearing capacity. • Collected municipal solid waste in Pabna is dumped on land in a more or less uncontrolled manner. Such practice creates serious environmental problems that affect health of humans and animals and cause serious economic and other welfare losses.

• Population: 2.5 million with 3% population growth rate (2011 census)

• Waste generation:52 tonnes/day on average • Collected organic waste: 30 percent/day • Collected waste dumped at Bangla Bazar,

Chetoner more and Fakirpu

(Source: Pabna Municipality , 2015 ; Saha, 2013; BBS, 2012)

CHALLENGES • Lack of records and data especially

composition of waste data • Low level of waste management

collection ~50-75%, (Saha, 2013) • Nearly all collected waste is disposed

in dumpsite • Diminishing landfill capacity • Most of the GHGs emit from waste

sector in Pabna and major portion of GHGs emission is methane

• Low political priority and lack of resources

• Lack of consciousness of city dweller to manage waste

DRIVERS

• Reduce waste amounts

• Reduce emissions and pollution

from waste sector

• Improve waste services

• Potential innovative solutions for

waste in Pabna city

• To generate energy from waste

Labor Wage:

$ 106572

Staff Salary: $ 12180

Fuel: $ 12123

Others: $ 15225

Solid waste management cost breakdown in Pabna Municipality area, 2014

Need the assessment of environmental damage Need the data of medical cost of labor and staffs

Source: Prepared by the author based on his collected data from Pabna Municipality area,2014

Waste management operation cost, 2014: • $146,100 /Year

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

To

nn

es/

ye

ar

Waste collection, given different parameters for population growth, per capita generation, and collection rates, 2015-2055

2% population growth, constant kg/day/cap& 4%

increase/yr collection

4% population growth, constant

kg/day/cap & 4%/yr collection

4% population growth, 2%

kg/day/cap & 4%/yr collection

Projection parameters

Population rate increase 2%, 3% and 4%

Per cap generation rate Constant, 0.5%, 1%

Collection rate Constant, 2%, 3%

Source: Johnson, 2014

This research will analyze costs and benefits of WTE for Pabna Municipality area,

including both economic and environmental considerations and compare it to the costs and

benefits of continued dumping.

The main objectives in this research are to:

• Assess the perceptions and preferences for waste management in Pabna Municipality area.

• Evaluate differences between traditional dumping and Waste-to-energy (WTE) in terms of

economic and environmental costs and benefits.

• Investigate the parameters in which WTE is a feasible alternative to dumping.

• Explore the range in parameters that will support the feasibility of WTE.

Research Question This study seeks to answer three key research questions:

RQ1. What are the future economic and environmental impacts of traditional dumping for

Pabna Municipality area?

RQ2. What are the costs and benefits of WTE (Waste-to-Energy) and how does it compare to

dumping system?

RQ3. What parameters are needed to make WTE feasible for Pabna Municipality area ?

Research Objective

1. Determine population and waste trends under different parameters

2. Conduct baseline assessments for traditional dumping system

3. Conduct WTE scenarios assessments and compare to baseline

4. Conduct sensitivity analysis and impact on IRR

5. Propose policy options, in context of societal awareness and preferences for waste management

Random Survey of household and business in Pabna Municipality area

Time : 7 July ~ 22 September, 2012 Area : Pabna Municipality Area

No. of Respondents : n=301 ( 1. 255 household and 2. 46 business) Data collection method: Questionnaire survey & Secondary source

Questions asked: o Socioeconomic background o Waste disposal practices and costs o Evaluation of the current level of service in WM o Attitudes towards the environment and waste

This paper considers municipal solid waste (MSW) that includes waste from households, bus

terminals and commercial or institutional entities such as school and business. Waste water,

industrial waste, toxic/hazardous waste, medical waste, construction and demolition waste, and

disaster waste are outside of the scope of this study.

Structure of methodology

Existing Data Organizations

Pabna Municipality area: Waste management related data

Field Survey Methane emission date , Household and Business cross-section data and personal interview

Generate empirical results (Salinity free & affected Aus, Aman Boro rice model)

Analysis

Policy implication

Relevant Reference Existing Reference: WTE incineration strategy

The Economic analysis: The economic analysis conducted in this study is a costs -benefits comparison between the status quo traditional dumping of waste management strategy and the alternative WTE incineration strategy.

• The costs and benefits parameters include both financial and environmental considerations. Financial costs include

both capital and operational costs whereas environmental costs are the valuation of net emissions for each scenario.

Financial benefits include revenue received through taxes, tipping fees, and sales of electricity while environmental

benefits are the net emissions reduction for each of the scenario.

• No waste collection cost in the dumping scenario and WTE scenario.

• The economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of both scenarios is calculated and compared. A sensitivity analysis is

conducted to determine the impact on the EIRR given some variable in the assumed parameters.

Dumping system Alternative WTE

Financial and Environmental costs and benefits

Dumping system

Process for estimating baseline dumping costs

Budget from Pabna Municipality

1. Revenue 2. Salary expenses 3. Program expenses - Administrative - Waste service - Education

Cost

1. Collections 2. Transport 3. Disposal

West management with and without capital cost

A. Determine of capital vs operational costs • B. Determine rare vs expected capital costs

WTO Scenario

Bangladesh has no WTO project. Case study of similar area is helpful to determine the overall idea of WTO led project. Bekasi city of Indonesia has such kind of project. Furthermore, the socio-economic condition of the Bekasi city is very similar to the Pabna city. Detail information or data (cost and benefit) of WTE will get from the web site of city office of Bekasi, Indonesia

Financial parameter will be determine by the following approach which is proposed by Tsilemou and Panagiotakopoulos (2006)

Estimation of financial parameter

Y X Where: α and β constants; β < 1 and represents economies of scale, X is design capacity (waste to be treated annually in tonnes per year) Y is cost

Costs Benefits (costs-savings

Construction and capital Operational costs

Debt service

Waste tax Electricity sales

Avoided landfilling and dumping Avoided land and capital expansion

Avoided emissions

The potential costs and benefits (costs-savings) for the WTE analysis are:

Environmental costs analysis

The First Order Decay model

BECH4, SWDS, y: Methane emissions (measured in tCO2e) avoided during the year y by preventing waste from being disposed of at the landfill (SWDS) during the period from the start of the project activity to the end of year y ϕ : Model correction factor to account for uncertainties f : Fraction of methane (CH4) captured at landfill and flared, combusted or used in another manner GWPCH4: Global Warming Potential of methane OX: Oxidation factor, IPCC default values: use 0.1 if there is soil cover or 0.0 if no cover F: Fraction of methane in the landfill gas mix, IPCC default value 0.5 DOCf : Fraction of degradable organic carbon that can decompose, IPCC default value 0.5 MCF: Methane correction factor Wj, x : Amount of organic waste type j disposed in the landfill in year x DOCj : Fraction of degradable organic carbon by weight in waste type j Kj : Decay rate for waste type j x : Year during the crediting period: x runs from the first year of the crediting period (x=1) to the year for which avoided emissions are calculated (x = y) y : Year for which the methane emissions are calculated

It is expected that the economic analysis of the landfill scenario, the current practice of open dumping is unsustainable, both economically and environmentally.

WTE has higher investment and operational costs, its social benefits are far greater than open dumping

Financial benefits to WTE can be possible given an appropriate mix of financial policies.

It is also expected that sensitivity analysis would be highlighted that revenue generating policies like waste tax and feed-in tariffs are critical for the viability of WTE projects.

To aid in the development and public acceptance of such revenue-generating policies, the local government must increase public awareness and appreciation for the full waste management process, from collection to final disposal.

National level initiatives such as National Waste Policy and the feed-in tariff provide a push and pull

strategy for innovation in WTE, but additional policies can help hasten WTE adoption, including more

stringent monitoring and removal of fossil fuel subsidies.

Thank You