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Transition to a Sustainable
BioeconomyData, Innovation, Technology and Governance, what we need
to do post COVID-19-
Maximo Torero
Growing Human Pressure
Climate change
Surprise
Ecosystem decline
Source: Johan Rockstrom: Let the environment guide our
development
World hunger is still increasing
Up by 10 million people in one year and nearly 60 million in five years
Looking beyond hunger
Over 2 billion people do not have regular access to safe, nutritious and sufficient food
The world is not on track to eradicate hunger
If recent trends continue, the number of hungry people would surpass 840 million by 2030
The world is not on track to defeat malnutrition
While there is some progress in child stunting and breastfeeding, child overweight is not
improving and adult obesity is rising
COVID-19 poses a serious threat to food security
The pandemic may add as many as 132 million people to the total number of hungry in 2020. It may also reduce nutrient intake and diet quality, thus increasing the risk of malnutrition
We are not on track towards ending hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition
The impact of COVID-19 on Extreme Poverty
88-115 million people pushed to
extreme poverty in 2020
The impact of COVID-19 on undernourishment
83-132 million people pushed to
undernourishment in 2020
More than 3 billion people in the world cannot afford a healthy diet
Average percentage of the population who could not afford a healthy diet in 2017
How this can be done?
6
Data
Complements
(Governance, human capital
and institutions)
Technology
Innovation
Key accelerators
Challenge 1: Improve
efficiency or shift of
potential frontier essential
in building back better
Stochastic Profit Frontier
C
Production of maize
Production of wheat
Frontier of possibilities of production
Frontier of possibilities of production increases
But interventions need to be tailored to countries’ contexts and objectives
Reducing food loss and waste benefits society, but trade-offs exist
Improved food security
and nutrition
Reduced natural resource
use and GHG emissions
Improved productivity and
economic growth
Adapting strategies to country context
Objectives are different from country to country. They should formulate strategies in
line with their objectives.
Aligning objectives and intervention entry points along the food supply chain
Environmental
sustainability
objectives
Food security
and nutrition
objectives
Increase water quality and
reduce water scarcity
Preserving land
GHG emission reduction
Plastics reduction
Food redistributionIncreased quality and nutritional
food content
Reduced prices for
consumers
Farmer income generation
Post-harvest loss reduction for increased food
availability
Farm Consumer
Upstream Downstrea
m
How this can be done?
Target interventions to solve bottle-necks
prioritizing hunger and poverty reduction
In dark green high priority areas
o Identify key constraints that need to be resolved to release potential of farmers (all agricultural sectors)
o Identify existing projects and gaps
In red critical, lacking agricultural potential areas
o Create mechanisms to increase resilience
How this can be done?
Bring together all geo-spatial information: Hand in
Hand Geospatial
https://data.apps.fao.org
Example: Identifying optimal locations for storage facilities in
South Saharan Africa
Nigeria: A closer look to a Hand-in-Hand country
Challenge 2: We need to
value externalities positive
or negative
Nature and climateImpacts on the planet and the
biosphere
Assessing systemic
riskImpacts on resilience
Food system as an
economic activityImpacts on jobs and finance
Impacts on
human lifeImpacts on inequalities
and health
Quantification Framework for Food Systems
Extended concept: One Health with zoonotic disease
Simple Illustration
Challenge 3: Is not only
supply!
ADDITIONAL DEMAND FOR BIOMASS
Growing population
Growing income
Need for alternative to fossil carbon chains
Increased production
Reduced supply for final consumers
Reduced supply for
intermediate consumers
New Demand for crops
Increase in yield and
area, extension of
cropland, and reduction
of other crops
GROWING DEMAND
Additional food demand
Additional Bioenergy demand
Additional industrial
Hunger?
Substitution effects
Feed
Other sectors (agrifood,
cosmetics)
Substitution effectsBiomass demand
SUPPLY AND DEMAN
Challenge 4: Bioeconomy
needs to be inclusive
SUPPLY AND DEMAN
• Huge opportunity for smallholders
• Huge potential for contract farming
• But we need an appropriate regulation framework
Final Remarks
Agriculture is critical for
Employment
Economic development
Food Security
Important changes in key drivers
Demand drivers changing rapidly
Land constraints
Water constrains
Climate change
Bioeconomy offers a huge
opportunity
But we need proper regulatory
environment
Gains in efficiency and potential
Increase value added
SAI
Bioeconomyneeds to be
inclusive
Thanks!
