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6/12/2018
1
Global Transport: Challenges & Opportunities
TU-Graz Lectures for the Course“Energy Systems Analysis”
June 2018
David McCollumResearch Scholar
IIASA Energy Program
Source: https://www.freepik.com/free-vector/transport-elements-collection_1170138.htm
Sonia Yeh, Sustainable Energy Futures, 2017
How people traveled in 2005 (Mode Shares)
PKM: passenger kilometer
Source: S. Yeh
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2
Source: Schäfer, Heywood, Jacoby, Waitz (2009)
Travel Time Budget: Stability (Zahavi, 1970s)
Travel Time Budget: Stability (Marchetti, 1994)
Time-use surveys, 1965/66 and early 2000sRome in the Middle Ages
Travel
Personal care & meals
Household & family care
Leisure & study
Sleep
Rome in the Middle-Ages and today
Sources: Schäfer
Work = ↓
Sleep, leisure/study, personal care, meals = ↑
Travel = ~~
2-3 km
10 km
C. Marchetti: City boundaries grow at rate proportional to avg. speed of fastest mode => 1 round-trip per day to city center in ~1.2 hr.
Travel Money Budget:Transport continues to become more affordable
Source: Schäfer, Heywood, Jacoby, Waitz (2009)
In 1882, average cost of rail travel in US was $0.20 (in 2000$). By 2020 only $0.05.Meanwhile, GDP/cap increased by 10x.
Air transport => biggest decline since 1950 (by 2/3rd)
Travel Money Budget => 5-10% of GDP spent on travel, increasing w/ GDP
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Growth in Global Mobility (1950‐2005)
Source: Schäfer, Heywood, Jacoby, Waitz (2009)
Shift from Slow to Fast (1950‐2005)
Source: Schäfer, Heywood, Jacoby, Waitz (2009)
Where are we heading?
Sources: https://uberexpansion.com/uber-provides-helicopter-flights/, https://skift.com/2017/08/19/private-jet-companies-and-airlines-know-how-to-profit-from-the-eclipse/
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Example Implication: “Peak Car” in the US
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Au
tom
ob
ile T
raffi
c V
olu
me
per
Ca
pita
, pk
m
Year
Source: Schäfer and Victor (2000)
Air Travel Demand
Source: Schäfer (2017)
•Benefits of mobility include…•Education•Employment•Connect markets (labor/manufacturing to consumers)
•Tourism•Recreation•…
Why do we travel?
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What problems does transport cause?
Source: J. Axsen
Congestion
Economic losses
Oil dependence
Air pollution
Climate change
Sonia Yeh, Sustainable Energy Futures, 2017
Global transport energy consumption – by mode
2W & 3W
Bus
Cars and light trucks
Heavy-duty trucks
Passenger rail
Air travel
Domestic shipping and rail
International shipping
Fu
el c
on
sum
ed
(E
J/yr
)
2010
Source: S. Yeh
Global transport energy consumption – by mode and fuel
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3, Figure 8.5
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Global transport GHG emissions – by mode
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3, Figure 8.1
Road transport(mostly passenger, but freight growing quickly)
Air transport
Water transport
Rail transport
Note: Indirect emissions from production of fuels, vehicle manufacturing, infrastructure construction etc. are not included.
Global transport GHG emissions – by region
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3, Figure 8.3
Why all these problems in transportation?
EngineersInefficient technology, lack of good alternatives
Economists: Market failuresEnvironmental externalities (GHG emissions, air pollution)
Common pool resources (too much congestion)
Consumers undervalue fuel savings
PsychologistsIdentity, attitudes, social norms, habit
Sociologists, geographersThe broader “system” (industry, policy, infrastructure), lock-in
Urban plannersLand-use problems, need for high-density
Source: J. Axsen
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The solutions?(focus on GHGs)
The ‘legs of the stool’ represent the different ‘levers’ available for reducing transport GHGs
Source: https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/sustainability/energy/workshops_and_peer_exchanges/seattle_10_2008/gccseattle.cfm
3- (or 4-) legged stool
Transportation GHG policy cantarget specific “legs of the stool”
Transportation GHGs = (GHG/MJ) x (MJ/km) x (km/person) x (# of people)
1. Transform fuels (reduce GHG/MJ): reduce carbon intensity of fuel via fuel switching– Replace gas with lower carbon fuels (e.g., electricity, biofuels)
2. Transform vehicles (reduce MJ/km): improve vehicle fuel efficiency– E.g. smaller, down-weighted, more efficient, hybridized
3. Transform behaviour (reduce km/person): decrease demand for motorized mobility (i.e., VMT) – Change land-use management (more mixed and dense
land-use, ‘walkable’ and ‘bike-friendly’, transit-oriented)
– Encourage mode switching (e.g., transit use)
– Gas tax, tolls, ‘pay per km’ insurance, allow congestion…
Travel/Behaviour
Source: J. Axsen
6/12/2018
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‘ASIF’ decomposition (Schipper et al., 2000)
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3, Figure 8.2
A I F S
Relevance: Greenhouse Gas Emissions
GGE = GGE
EE
PKTPKT
Advanced Technologies
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The future of transportation
What will it look like in 2030-50?
This?
Source: J. Axsen
Alternative Fuel Vehicle Pathways
Source: https://www.featurepics.com/online/Alternative-Fuel-Race-Hybrid-Hydrogen-Etc-1225502.aspx
Source: Hwang (2013)
Biomass Biofuels
Flex Fuel Vehicle
The future of transportation
What will it look like in 2030-50?
The “3 Revolutions”
Electric?
Autonomous?
Shared?
Source: J. Axsen
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10
#1: Electric VehiclesCountries with the most electric vehicles
Source: IEA Global EV Outlook 2018
Stock
Sales
53 kWh24 kWh
16 kWh
Types of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)
4 kWh
~100-150 km electric range
Nissan Leaf
~56 km ~500 km gasoline
+300km electric range
Tesla Roadster
Toyota Prius PHV
Chevy Volt (Opel Ampera)
20 km ~800 km gasoline
Plug-inHybrid(PHEV)
BatteryElectric(BEV)
Comparing Battery Sizes:Source: J. Axsen
EV benefits depend on upstream electricity supply
LifecycleGHGsg/km
Conventional
Hybrid
PEVs
PEV
Note: Alberta is only getting
cleaner over time
PEVs
Conventional
Hybrid
Source: J. AxsenHydropower
Coal,Natural gas
Renewables, Nuclear, Natural gas
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#2: Autonomous vehicles (AVs)
Fully Autonomous
Source: J. Axsen
Huge uncertainty about the ultimate impact of AVs
“Utopia”• Fewer accidents
• Platoons of self-driving trucks
• Need fewer parking spots
• No wasted commuting time
• Reduce congestion(?)
• More accessible for variety of “drivers”
“Dystopia”• Could increase # of vehicles
• Could increase total VMT (circle the block?)
• May not be electric
• Safety / computer malfunctions
• Truck and taxi drivers out of work
Source: J. Axsen
AVs can create “heaven or hell”:cut GHGs by 50%...or double them!
Save Energy
Extra Energy
Source: Wadud et al., 2016: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.12.001Source: J. Axsen
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#3: Shared mobility
Source: J. Axsen
Combine the “3 Revolutions”to save the world?
Source: J. Axsen
Source: J. Axsen
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13
Botma & Papendrecht, TU Delft 1991 & GIZ
22 000 80 0009 0002 000 14 000 17 000 19 000
BRT –Single Lane / Articulated Bus
Heavy Rail(e.g. Hong Kong)
Light Rail
Corridor Capacity(people per hour on 3.5 m wide lane in the city)
Source: Creutzig
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)
Seto et al., IPCC Ch. 12 (2014)
Source: Creutzig
Policies
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What policies can support AFVs?
Purchase incentives Rebates, tax breaks, fee reductions
Non-monetary benefits Carpool lane access, free parking
Chargers Home: incentives, building codes, streamlined permittingWork: workplace incentivesPublic: deployment, incentives
Demand-focused policies
ZEV mandate Direct AFV deployment requirements
Efficiency standards Fuel economy credits for AFVs
Low-carbon fuel standard Carbon reduction credits for electricity sold
R&D support Funds for various research activities
Supply-focused policies
Adapted from: Melton et al. (2017), Energy PolicySource: J. Axsen
Multi-pronged efforts to promote advanced vehicle adoption are more effective than a single sectoral or economy-wide policy
Sectoral strategies and policies
Targets for cumulative vehicle sales, sales quotas, vehicle mandates
Vehicle efficiency or emission standards
Vehicle sales incentives (purchase subsidies, tax credits, fee‐bates, reduced registration fees)
Vehicle manufacturer support (RD&D, production subsidies)
High transport fuel taxes (also carbon taxes or pricing)
Government and company vehicle procurement policies, other demonstration & test fleets
Trialling in car clubs or car‐sharing networks
Recharging and refuelling public infrastructure investments
Workplace or home charging incentives
Preferential parking or roadway access; reduced congestion charges or tolls
Promotions, social marketing, outreach, information campaigns
Consumer preferences
Financial Upfront
capital cost
+ ++ ++ +
Fuel cost + ++ + +
Non‐financial
Risk aversion
+ + + ++ ++ + ++
Model variety
++ + + + +
Refuelling availability
+ + ++ ++ ++ ++ +
Range anxiety
+ + + ++ ++ ++
Example countries where strategies and policies have been implemented
Norway, Netherlands, UK, USA (10 states with California mandates), China, France, Germany
Norway, Netherlands, UK, USA, Japan, China, France, Germany
Norway, Netherlands, UK, USA, Japan, China, France, Germany
Norway, Netherlands, UK, USA, Japan, China, France, Germany
Norway, Netherlands, UK, France, Germany
UK, USA, Japan, China, France
France, Germany, Netherlands, USA
Norway, Netherlands, UK, USA, Japan, China, France, Germany
USA, France
Norway, Netherlands, UK, USA, Japan, France, Germany
Norway, Netherlands, UK, USA, Japan, China, France, Germany
Notes: ++ indicates a strong or direct influence on consumer preference; + indicates a weak or indirect influence on consumer preference; based on authors’ assessment. The selection of countries here represented >90% of global electric vehicle sales in 2014.
Strong coordination needed across different levels of government (national, state/provincial, and local)
Are efficiency standards for passenger LDVs stringent enough? … perhaps so …
US 2025[2]: 1.3EU 2021: 1.2
China 2020[1]: 1.5
India 2021: 1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
MJ
/km
(n
orm
ali
zed
to
CA
FE
Te
st
Cyc
le)
US EU Japan China India
Source: the ICCT: „Global Comparison: Light‐duty Fuel Economy and GHG“ (May 2014 update, http://transportpolicy.net/)
Solid lines: historical performanceDashed lines: enacted targets Dotted lines: proposed targets or targets under study
[1] China's target reflects gasoline vehicles only. The target may be higher after new energy vehicles are considered. [2] The U.S. standards are fuel economy standards set by NHTSA, which is slightly different from GHG stadards due to A/C credits.[3] Supporting data can be found at: http://www.theicct.org/info‐tools/global‐passenger‐vehicle‐standards.
PASSENGER CARS ONLY
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• Governments across the world have set ambitious targets for EVs. (Collectively, by 2025, sales of ~7 million per year, or ~30 million cumulative stock … compared to >1000 million passenger vehicles globally at present)
• Automakers also have big plans. (e.g., VW Group has pledged that BEVs will comprise 20-25% of its annual sales by 2025; 2-3 million per year.)
• A consortium of companies, governments, and other organizations announced at the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 21) the “Paris Declaration on Electro-Mobility and Climate Change and Call to Action”.
Ambitious targets for electric-drive vehicles have been announced
Source: http://newsroom.unfccc.int/media/521376/paris-electro-mobility-declaration.pdf
Stated targets:• 100 million electric-drive LDVs by
2030 (~ 3 million at end-of-2017)• 400 million electric-drive 2/3-wheelers
by 2030 (~250 million today)
Transport mitigation measures in NDCs• 75% of NDCs explicitly identify
transport as a mitigation source (among 160 NDCs, 2016-Aug-01)
• 63% propose trans. mitig. measures
• 9% include transport emission reduction targets
• 12% include assessments of country-level transport mitigation potential
• Strong bias toward passenger transport: included in 91% of NDCs identifying specific transport modes, while freight is only in 29%.
• High-speed rail (2%), aviation (5%), and walking and cycling (14%) receive less attention.
• High-income countries => vehicle eff. standards and biofuels/elec/H2
• Low/middle-income countries => [eff./fuels] + public transport, vehicle import restrictions, ‘green’ freight
Source: http://www.ppmc-transport.org/overview_indcs/
Based on analyses by SLoCaT, Ricardo, GIZ, and German BMUB
Mixed urban development reduces travel demand
Seto et al., IPCC Ch. 12 (2014)
Source: Creutzig
6/12/2018
16
Land use policies to reduce urban emissions
Seto et al., IPCC Ch. 12 (2014)
Source: Creutzig
Push policies• Car traffic restrictions• City toll• Reduce available lanes• Parking fees• Speed limits
Pull policies• Better public transport• Safe space for cycling and
walking• Prioritisation of bicycles• Bicycle racks
Land use policies• Compact cities• Polycentric cities• Avoid urban sprawl• No greenfield development• Mixed use neighbourhoods
Source: Creutzig
Transport and the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Source: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/
Road traffic accidentsAir quality
Energy efficiency
Reliable/resilient infrastructure
Public transport
Transport (fossil) fuel subsidies
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Future scenarios
Transport mitigation requirements for 2°C target
Transport: A Roadblock to Climate Change Mitigation?F. Creutzig, P. Jochem, O. Edelenbosch, L. Mattauch, D. P. van Vuuren, D. McCollum, J. Minx (2015)Science, 350(6263), 911-912
Source: Creutzig
Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Mitigation burden of transport sector impacts, and is impacted by, mitigation elsewhere in the system.
51
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3, Figure SPM.7
~2 ºC || including CCS
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Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
Transport mitigation burden could either be light or heavy before 2050.
52
~2 ºC || no CCS
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3, Figure SPM.7
Urban policies to halve global transport emissions by 2050
• Halving of transport sector GHG emissions until 2050 possible but ambitious; requires high CO2 price, efficiency standards, and additionally: rapid electrification, and strong urban policies
• Multiple behavioral options for reducing GHG emissions in the transport sector to support urban solutions
• Especially endogenous preferences point to wider implications for economic theory
Creutzig et al., Science 2015Mattauch et al., TRD, 2015
Source: Creutzig
Different communities and their approach to climate change mitigation
Evolving Narratives of Low‐Carbon Futures in Transportation (2015) F. Creutzig, Transport Reviews
Source: Creutzig
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19
Comparing narratives of three transport communities
Evolving Narratives of Low-Carbon Futures in Transportation (2015) F. Creutzig, Transport Reviews
Methodological Focus, objectives, and solutions influence each other
Source: Creutzig
Which ‘levers’ hold the biggest potential, or could/should be pulled hardest? …not entirely clear…
• ‘Economics-based’ IAMs (GCAM and MESSAGE) favor low-carbon fuels. [endogenous]
• ‘Expert-based’ transport-only models (MoMo and Roadmap) favor vehicle efficiency improvements. [exogenous]
• Changes in activity / behavior (mode-shifting, demand avoidance) are more pronounced in MoMo and Roadmap.
• MoMo and Roadmap see the transport sector bearing a greater mitigation burden than GCAM and MESSAGE.
Results from the iTEM global transport-energy model comparison (Yeh et al., 2016)
2 integrated assessment
models (‘economics-
based’)
2 transport-only models
(‘expert-based’)
Future global transport CO2 emissions –comparing different kinds of models
Source: IPCC AR5 WG3, Figure 8.9
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• Technology adoption decisions (e.g., vehicle choices) are influenced by BOTH financial AND non-financial considerations.
• Financial attributes: upfront (capital) costs and expectations about future operating and fuel costs (affected by fuel efficiency)
– Pretty well understood and nearly always included in energy-economy / systems models.
• Non-financial attributes: available models and brands, perceived risks, comfort, vehicle range and refueling/recharging station availability
– Less well understood. Sometimes included in vehicle choice models (discrete choice or agent-based), but very rarely in energy-economy / systems models.
• Consumer preferences for these financial and non-financial attributes are very heterogeneous (within and across societies).
Vehicle choices depend on more than just techno-economic considerations
GEM‐E3 IMAGE MESSAGE TIAM‐UCL WITCHIMACLIM
EDVShareofTotalLDVPassenger‐Kilom
eters(2050)
Average across models = 24% (range: 15-34%)
Global, economy-wide carbon pricing is assumed as climate policy in both scenarios from 2020 onward (100 US$2010/tCO2 held constant over time).
Sectoral actions targeting consumers’ non-financial preferences are necessary for promoting EDVs; carbon pricing is insufficient
Model=>
Average across models = 1% (range: 0-3%)
McC
ollu
m, W
ilso
n e
t al
. (20
18).
Nat
ure
En
erg
y.
Learning OutcomesNow, you should be able to:1. Summarize the historical development of transportation
systems and main drivers of development
2. Explain the benefits and problems associated with transport.
3. Identify a few of the common technological and policy solutions to overcoming transport problems
4. Describe the “legs” of the transport GHG stool and the ASIF approach commonly used to decompose emissions drivers
5. Articulate the direction the global transport is heading and what that depends on, as well as how transport researchers make future projections
Source: J. Axsen
6/12/2018
21
Questions?Comments?
Contact: David McCollum ([email protected])
Back-up slides
Source: Magazine of the OeAMTC (Austrian Automobile Association), March 2017 issue
Flying cars courtesy of a Dutch manufacturer(reserve yours now)
Flying (drone) taxis in Dubai(coming July 2017)
“The automobile has been perfected. No further improvements are necessary.”
-- Allgemeine Automobil Zeitung of Berlin, 1921