Transport systems of tomorrowAugust 2017 | Andrew Jackson, Deputy Chief Executive

What I will cover

Where are we now

Where we might end up – how the transport system might change over the next

20 years

What that means for health outcomes

Transport has an important impact on health

outcomes

Clarity of connection

Deaths

InjuryAir quality

Inactivity

Mental health

Even a small change would bring benefits

5%

cycling on

short

urban trips

=116

activity

5.6

pollution

5

cyclist

DEATHS

Auckland example

5%

walking or cycling

on 2kms trips

and cycling 5kms

=5%

vkt

$225m pa

health benefits

Active travel is declining in NZ

Active transport has been decreasing

12 Source: Ministry of Transport , 25 Years of New Zealand Travel, 2015

Mode of Travel to School in New Zealand – Ages 13-17

Two transport futures are debated

Sustainable versus Smart

Sustainable OR

•Avoid

•Shift

•Improve

Smart

•Data based

•Customer centric

•Intelligent

Accessibility preference virtualphysical

Accessibility preference

Re

lati

ve

co

st

high

low

virtualphysical

Accessibility preference

Rel

ativ

e

co

st

high

low

virtualphysical

Global Locals

Travellers’ Paradise Digital Decadence

Co-operative and Close

3%53%

25%35%

Percentage change in total vkt from 2014 to 2042

Disruptions to transport

• AV

• Platform technology

• System management

Technology

• Virtual

• Use not own

• Plan not hopeSocial

Disruptions to transport

• AV

• Platform technology

• System management

Technology

• Virtual

• Use not own

• Plan not hopeSocial

Seamless

Siloed

Disruptions to transport

• AV

• Platform technology

• System management

Technology

• Virtual

• Use not own

• Plan not hopeSocial

Hesitant Novelty

chasing

Regulation 2025

16

Novelty

chasing

Hesitant

Seamless

Siloed

Slowly and surely

Can’t get enoughKeeping our boundaries

Embracing connectivity

Regulation 2025

17

Novelty

chasing

Hesitant

Seamless

Siloed

Slowly and surely

Can’t get enoughKeeping our boundaries

Embracing connectivity

$0.31

$0.97

$0.63

$0.46

Accessibility preference

Rel

ativ

e

cost

high

low

virtualphysical

Travellers’ Paradise Digital Decadence

25%35%

Percentage change in total vkt from 2014 to 2042

Factors affecting travel choice

Comfort

Cost

Convenience

Changing cost of travel – Wellington City

2016

Commuting by private car

5kms x 2 @ 0.97c/km = $10 car

$14 parking

$24 total cost per day by car

Commuting by PT

$20 cost per day of PT

$10 price per day of PT

Changing cost of travel

2016

Commuting by private car

5kms x 2 @ 0.97c/km = $10 car

$14 parking

$24 total cost per day by car

Commuting by PT

$20 cost per day of PT

$10 price per day of PT

Comfort

Cost

Convenience

$14

Cars 70% vs PT 18%

Changing cost of travel

2016

Commuting by private car

13.5kms x 2 @ 0.97c/km = $26 car

$15 parking

$41 total cost per day by car

Travel by PT

$20 cost per day of PT

$10 price per day of PT

2035

Commuting by AV fleet

5kms x 2 @ 0.31c/km = $1.50 car

$0 parking

$3 total cost per day by AV fleet

Commuting by PT

$14 cost per day of PT

$7 price per day of PT

Changing cost of travel

2035

Commuting by AV fleet

5kms x 2 @ 0.31c/km = $1.50 car

$0 parking

$3 total cost per day by AV fleet

Commuting by PT

$14 cost per day of PT

$7 price per day of PTComfort

Cost

Convenience

$3

Mobility patterns today: era of private cars

Vehicle

ownership

Journeys

Personal Communal

Public

transport

Private

fleets

Personal

Future Mobility patterns: fleet era

Vehicle

ownership

Journeys

Personal Communal

Public

transport

Private

fleets

Personal

Accessibility preference

Rel

ativ

e

cost

high

low

virtualphysical

Travellers’ Paradise

35%

Percentage change in total vkt from 2014 to 2042

Future mobility – the opportunities and challenges

What does this mean for Government?

Government may no longer

Fund PT to ensure access and choice

Regulate for carbon from transport

Government will still need to

Broader role on health

Regulate for safety and security

Regulate for economic issues

Provide infrastructure, physical and virtual

Manage for access

What estimated social costs

could transport policy potentially impact?

0123456789

Bill

ion

$/Y

ear

All Causes

Transport Only

Transport comes at a significant cost of lives

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

All Causes

Transport Only

Will we need to change the balance of our

investments?

050

100150200250300350400450

Mill

ion

$Road SafetyPromotion

Police Road SafetyProgramme

Road SafetyImprovements

EmergencyAmbulance Services

ACC Client TravelReimbursements

How much transport spending is at least partly directed at

addressing each of these health impacts?

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Mill

ion

$

Police Road SafetyProgrammeRoad Safety Promotion

Roading Improvements

Kiwirail Freight

Electric Vehicle Programme

Walking and CyclingProgrammesPublic Transport Services

Total Mobility Programme

SuperGold CardProgrammeEmergency AmbulanceServicesACC Client TravelReimbursements

Air quality – do we have a solution

Percentage of how many vehicles come from Japan and

from other sources (per year)

Japan = 223,000

Other = 62,000

Number of new and used imports (per year)

132,000 new

153,000 used

Stock of vehicles – 3.5 million

vehicles in New Zealand

Used New

Light vehicles imports into New Zealand

Note: Japanese stock of EVs= 138,000

New EV entrants to the Japanese market approximately 30,000 per

year.

In August 2016, 0.48 percent of all light vehicle registrations in New

Zealand are EVs.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

BEV 59.3%48.3%37.9%28.4%20.0%12.0% 4.0% 1.6% -0.8%-5.6% -11.1 -15.8 -20.8 -21.2 -21.3 -21.3

PHEV-P 49.8%39.7%30.2%21.3%13.3% 5.6% 3.9% 2.1% -2.2%-6.2% -10.7 -14.9 -14.9 -15.0 -15.1 -15.1

PHEV-D 56.9%47.1%37.7%29.0%21.1%13.6%11.9%10.1% 5.9% 1.8% -2.8%-7.0%-7.1%-7.2%-7.2%-7.3%

-35%

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

New electric vehicle four year ownership compared with internal combustion engine – petrol

KEY

BEV – pure EVs

PHEV – Petrol (P)

PHEV – Diesel (D)

Source: Ministry of Transport

Will MaaS improve access?

Five levels of MaaS

For the user

► Information of transport choices available to the customer

► Common payment platform for the customer

Of the transport system

► Coordinated services

► Management of services (pricing)

► Integration of the services (one algorithm to rule them all)

What we did What we foundWhy

Impacts on Accessibility• Demand-responsive public transport generates much more equitable levels of

accessibility across the city.

• Maps of classes of weighted average straight-line equivalent speed from each

grid cell to all others with distance greater than 1 km (using PT)

Urban Mobility: System Upgrade

Gini coeffs. for avg. linear speed

Current: 0.37Taxibus+Metro: 0.23

For each cell as origin, avg of values to each destination weighted by the O->D flow

But what about inactivity?

The future is Sustainable and Smart

Avoid

Shift

Improve

Mobility

PT

Fleet

Access

Active and ride share

System