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Transportation, Air Pollution, Climate

The Road Ahead in AsiaAugust 19, 2014

Michael P. WalshInternational Consultant

Founding Chairman Board of Directors,

International Council on Clean Transportation

Air Pollution Is Already Reaching Crisis Levels Across Asia Especially PM2.5 And O3

Lelieveld, J., and F. J. Dentener (2000)

模拟 O3浓度分布

Van Donkelaar et al. (2010)

卫星反演PM2.5浓度分布

PM2.5

O3

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Ambient PM2.5 Now Among The Leading Global Risks For Mortality And Lost Years Of Healthy Life In 2010

Contributes to 3.2 million premature deaths worldwide

Costs of Air Pollution:Health Impacts of Road Transport

• Cost to Advanced Economies Plus China and India = $3.5 Trillion per Year– OECD ~ $1.7 Trillion– China ~ $1.4 Trillion– India ~ $0.5 Trillion

• In OECD Countries ~ Half From Road Transport

Source: OECD Secretary General Gurria, , May 21, 2014

Melt descending into a moulin, a vertical shaftcarrying water to ice sheet base.

Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)

We Now Face A New Global Challenge: Climate Change

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Remember 2011!

Severe Drought

Followed By

Extreme Flooding

8Source; WMO GHG Bulletin Number 8

Vehicle Pollution is an Increasingly Important Challenge

Historical High Growth Has Offset Many ImprovementsVehicles Remain Important Contributor To Local,

Regional and Global Pollution

In Your Face! Literally!

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Mobikes Walking In Cars In Buses WHO Guideline0

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micrograms/cubic meter

C ommuters Exposure to Part iculate Matter and C arbon Monoxidein H anoi, Vietnam: A Pilot Study

East W est C enter W orking Paper N o. 64, N ov 2006

PM10 Exposures in Hanoi

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BC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution

• Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture known as particulate matter (PM)– Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM– Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and

biomass, and is a major component of “soot”– Mainly found in the fine particle (PM2.5) fraction, which is most

strongly linked to adverse health effects

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Most Recent Study Says Black Carbon is Second Only To CO2

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Clean Vehicle Technologies

Appropriate Maintenance

CleanFuels

Better Air Quality

Transportation & Land use Planning

Elements of a ComprehensiveVehicle Pollution Control Strategy

Low Emissions

Diesel Vehicles and Engines are Ideal Candidates for Black Carbon Control

• Very high ratio of Black

Carbon to Organic Carbon

• Ubiquitous• Control Technology Exists• Substantial Health Co-

Benefits

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A Critical Technology: Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs)

Trapped SootCell Plugs

Exhaust In(PM, CO, HC)

Exhaust Out (CO2, H2O)

*Removes 90+% BC, PM; also HC and CO

*Requires Ultralow Sulfur Diesel (ULSD)

Emissions standards for mobile sources in China

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Source: Huiming Gong, CSEP

Dealing With Existing VehiclesMust Be A High Priority

Will Dominate Inventory For Several Years

Pre-1981 1981-87 Post 19870

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(g/km)CO

Before Repair After Repair

Results of the British Columbia I/M Program Audit

Strategies For In-use Vehicles• Mandatory Retirement (Scrappage)

– Best applied to the oldest vehicles– Can be the most cost-effective reduction

strategy• Retrofit

– The installation of emissions control equipment on vehicles not yet ready for retirement

– Requires Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel (< 50 PPM) For Most Advanced PM Filters

Transport ProblemsNot Limited To Road Vehicles

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Looking Ahead: 15 Of The World’s Top 20 Ports Are In Asia

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Source: American Association of Port Authorities, 2009

Provided by Rich Kassel

Fuel Cell Vehicles

Battery Electric Vehicles

Plug-In Hybrids

New Energy Vehicles Entering the Market

in California 2012-2015

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Where Do We Go From Here?

Developing a Clean Vehicles and Fuels Roadmap