Transportation Transportation Infrastructure Projects: Infrastructure Projects:

From Conception to From Conception to ImplementationImplementation

ByProf. S. L. Dhingra

Transportation Systems EngineeringIIT Bombay

The StagesThe Stages

Conception:Conception: Identification of project alternativesIdentification of project alternatives Selection of the best alternativeSelection of the best alternative

Implementation:Implementation: Construction of the projectConstruction of the project Operation and MaintenanceOperation and Maintenance

Classic Four-Stage Sequential Travel Demand Model

Considering Environmental Protection Economy

Trip Generation

Trip Distribution Demand

Modal Split

Traffic Assignment Supply

Study areaInternal zonesExternal zonesPlan PeriodsDemographic and Socio-economic dataProtection of planning variablesTransport networkOrigin and Destination Survey

Travel Demand Modeling Planning Variables

TRIP GENERATION

• Trip Productions

• Trip Attractions

• Aggregate Analysis

• Disaggregate Analysis

• Zonal Models

• Household-based Models

• Regression Models

• Trip-rate Analysis

• Cross-classification Models

Trip Distribution

Growth Factor Method Synthetic Approach

Basic Gravity Model BPR Gravity Model Entropy Maximizing Model Optimization Model

Modal Split Models

Trip end Modal Split ModelTrip Interchange Modal Split ModelsSynthetic Models

Model derived from trip distribution Direct Demand

Analytical tools for modal split Diversion curve Regression analysis Discrete choice modal

Traffic Assignment Models•All – Or – Nothing Assignment Method

•Equilibrium Assignment Methods

•Diversion Models

•Dynamic Assignment Models

•Combined Models

•Direct Demand Model

•Combined Distribution Assignment Model

•Combined Modal Split and Route Choice Models

Tijmrsp

Attraction

1 45

2 903 88

Aj

Production

1 47

2 663 110

Pi

2 3

18 19

32 4

To Zones

1

1 10

2 30

3 5 40 65

45 90 88

47

66110

223

F r o m

Z o n e s

Tijm

Mode II2515

Mode I

40 Route C 3

Route B 17

Route A 5

Tijmr

Tijmrs(Income)

Medium

3

5

High

9Low

17

Work

2

6

Edud.

1Other

9

Trip PurposeEducation

Work

Other

3

12

2

17

Tijmrp

Example of Travel Estimation Process

Example of Travel Estimation Process

Tij

Travel Demand Modeling Other Approaches

Equilibrium Demand Modeling Traveler as consumer of transit trips Micro Economics - Utility Maximization Activity based analysis (Factors)

Individual Traveler Level Type and Time of Activity Community Level Social Level Destination by mode Congestion

Rural Road Planning Process Creation of road development plans Creation of road development plans

(alternatives) for achieving the (alternatives) for achieving the objectives of integrated rural objectives of integrated rural development.development.

Allocating priorities to rural areas Allocating priorities to rural areas under consideration through the various under consideration through the various plansplans

Qualification of the benefits of Qualification of the benefits of alternatives and subsequent comparison alternatives and subsequent comparison between competing plans. between competing plans.

Selection of the ‘optimal’ road Selection of the ‘optimal’ road development plan through the above development plan through the above process.process.

Transport Priority Indices (TPI) in a System’s Framework

The Need: - Huge investments involved and priority needs to be given to villages with higher population and potential market surplus.

The proposals discussed are those initiated by: the State Government of Karnataka the Indonesian rural roads study

group the ARD (Accelerated Rural

Development) road network of Thailand

The Karnataka State Government proposal for

computing TPI

» » Marking or index based system with highest marksMarking or index based system with highest marks for villages with population greater than 1000 people.for villages with population greater than 1000 people.» The indices are based on factors such as population,» The indices are based on factors such as population, village accessibility, local market, regulated market,village accessibility, local market, regulated market, hospitalhospital, , post officepost office, , school, and electrification.school, and electrification.» Each factor is assigned some marks and the priority is» Each factor is assigned some marks and the priority is based on the total marks.based on the total marks.» Drawback of method:- only few factors considered.» Drawback of method:- only few factors considered.

The Indonesian Rural Road Study Group proposal for

computing TPI» 2 components for TPI - Requirement factors and » 2 components for TPI - Requirement factors and

Provision factors.Provision factors.

» Requirement factors such as traffic flow, traffic » Requirement factors such as traffic flow, traffic growth, population density, socio-economic growth, population density, socio-economic benefits expected, area of influence, and network benefits expected, area of influence, and network significance.significance.

» Provision factors such as length of road, surface » Provision factors such as length of road, surface type, surface condition, terrain, carriageway and type, surface condition, terrain, carriageway and formation width, stability of drainage and formation width, stability of drainage and culverts, condition of bridges and major crossings culverts, condition of bridges and major crossings

» TPI given by (Requirement factor score/Provision » TPI given by (Requirement factor score/Provision factor score)*100.factor score)*100.

ARD (Accelerated Rural Development) road network proposal of Thailand for TPI

» 2 Factors: Benefit and Cost factors.» 2 Factors: Benefit and Cost factors.

» Benefit factors such as agricultural production, » Benefit factors such as agricultural production, cultivable land, water availability, population, cultivable land, water availability, population, existing road condition, traffic volume, co-existing road condition, traffic volume, co-operation among people, public utilities and operation among people, public utilities and private enterprises.private enterprises.

» Benefit and Cost scores worked out after giving » Benefit and Cost scores worked out after giving certain marks to all the factors.certain marks to all the factors.

» TPI = (Total Benefit Score) / (Total Cost Score)» TPI = (Total Benefit Score) / (Total Cost Score)

Trip Generation & Distribution in a Systems’ Framework

» Village with the highest TPI is identified and is » Village with the highest TPI is identified and is designated as the origin node.designated as the origin node.

» Destinations to which traffic is generated from » Destinations to which traffic is generated from the origin node are also identified and are the origin node are also identified and are designated as the destination nodes.designated as the destination nodes.

» Primary survey enables traffic estimation from » Primary survey enables traffic estimation from the village by different transportation modes the village by different transportation modes as well as distribution among various links.as well as distribution among various links.

» » For inter zonal trip generation in the village For inter zonal trip generation in the village region, a gravity model is hypothesized and region, a gravity model is hypothesized and calibrated to estimate the slope and intercept calibrated to estimate the slope and intercept coefficients.coefficients.

Organizational Setup for Organizational Setup for Planning and PrioritizingPlanning and Prioritizing

Formation of Technical Advisory Formation of Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)Committee (TAC)

Preparation of proposal/tender Preparation of proposal/tender documentdocument

Guidelines for selection of tendersGuidelines for selection of tenders Pre-bid selectionPre-bid selection Selection of PMCSelection of PMC Selection of contractorsSelection of contractors Proof consultantsProof consultants

UNDP - Government of India Project on Pro-poor

GlobalisationAim:

Informed and participatory pro-poor policy making, strategy and programme formulation

Methodology: Review of already conducted research on pro-

poor and anti-poor impacts of globalisation Additional research and analysis Involvement of the poor in the policy dialogue Making information accessible to lay- person

Methodology for Selection of Methodology for Selection of Proposal Proposal

Organisations short-listed on the basis of initial proposals

Selection of 3 top-ranked proposals based on their presentations

Initial contract awarded to these 3 organisations to further refine and detail their proposal, work plan and project strategy.

Review of final proposals by a panel Project awarded to the highest ranked

proposal

Decision Making

Importance of decision making at every stage during the project

Two important steps in the decision making process Course of action, which contains recognition,

discovery and contraction of ideas Finding alternative strategies

Decision making is complex due to multiplicity of attributes

Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM)

Importance in design and planning Some MCDM techniques:

Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) Fuzzy Set Methodology Metagame Theory

Analytical Hierarchy Process Basic principles of AHP

Hierarchic representation and decomposition

Priority discrimination and synthesis Logical consistency

Series of pair-wise comparisons carried out to obtain the preference order

Each decision alternative assigned a weight

Weights represent the alternatives’ desirability

Applications in fields like: conflict analysis operations research portfolio selection bid evaluation capital budgeting

Transportation planning involves Qualitative

and quantitative analysis including uncertain

Attributes and Characteristics.

Fuzzy Analysis takes care of this important

aspect of transportation planning.

FUZZY SET ANALYSIS

FUZZY LOGIC

Fuzziness in Transportation Analysis

In the study of transportation problems, fuzziness is found in many aspects of analysis

• Perception of data and information, Knowledge base, Statement of goals and objectives, and Problem definition.

General Procedure for Fuzzy Analysis

Define fuzzy problem in detail

Identify all important variables and their ranges

Determine membership profiles for each variable range

Determine rules(prepositional statements ), and

Select defuzzification methodology.

The following are the steps of the methodology:

1. Identifying the modes which will form attributes (i,e., factors) of those coordinated modes.2. Categorizing different interest groups.3. Forming termed rating matrix, with columns as modes and rows as factors.4. Constructing of different rating matrices as per the views of respective interest groups5. Aggregation of rating matrices6. Forming ‘ dominance’ matrix from the dominance of one mode over the other mode7. Calculating the % share of service by each mode in a coordinated system.

The city of Calcutta, with five different mass transit modes, is considered for the case study.

Coordinated Mode

Bus Tram Surface Transport

Underground Railway

Water Transport

Abbreviation BS TR SR UR Wt

The attributes considered for each mode are:Sl. No FACTORS

1 Travel Time

2 Frequency

3 Comfort

4 Cost ( Fare )

5 Congestion ( Traffic )

6 Accident

7 Ease of handling babies and luggage’s

8 Suitability for handicapped and old people

9 Rating in terms of preferences

Rating matrix for commuters’ opinion:

Sl. No. BS TR SR UR WT

1 0.70 0.61 0.75 0.81 0.65

2 0.77 0.69 0.71 0.69 0.66

3 0.61 0.70 0.69 0.83 0.72

4 0.95 0.79 0.68 0.76 .076

5 0.61 0.54 0.66 0.77 0.72

6 0.61 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.78

7 0.32 0.67 0.71 0.81 0.76

8 0.51 0.75 0.77 0.80 0.69

9 0.57 0.70 0.79 0.80 0.74

Sl. No. BS TR SR UR WT

1 0.68 0.58 0.70 0.88 0.65

2 0.66 0.66 0.62 0.78 0.62

3 0.44 0.68 0.58 0.85 0.73

4 0.70 0.74 0.52 0.57 0.72

5 0.61 0.43 0.56 0.90 0.77

6 0.62 0.72 0.70 0.90 0.85

7 0.46 0.62 0.62 0.83 0.67

8 0.46 0.66 0.62 0.72 0.61

9 0.60 0.65 0.72 0.90 0.70

Rating Matrix for Planners Opinion

Rating Matrix for the Researcher’s Opinion

Sl. No. BS TR SR UR WT

1 0.51 0.38 0.83 0.85 0.56

2 0.53 0.61 0.66 0.75 0.73

3 0.40 0.66 0.58 0.73 0.76

4 0.62 0.75 0.61 0.48 0.62

5 0.52 0.50 0.65 0.78 0.78

6 0.45 0.58 0.62 0.75 0.78

7 0.51 0.61 0.62 0.70 0.80

8 0.50 0.59 0.61 0.71 0.78

9 0.61 0.86 0.78 0.82 0.85

The aggregation matrices using pessimistic aggregation and optimistic aggregation are:

Pessimistic Aggregate

Sl. No. BS TR SR UR WT

1 0.51 0.38 0.70 0.81 0.56

2 0.53 0.61 0.62 0.69 0.62

3 0.40 0.66 0.58 0.73 0.72

4 0.62 0.74 0.52 0.48 0.62

5 0.52 0.43 0.56 0.78 0.72

6 0.42 0.58 0.62 0.73 0.78

7 0.32 0.61 0.62 0.70 0.67

8 0.46 0.59 0.61 0.71 0.61

9 0.61 0.65 0.72 0.80 0.70

Optimistic Aggregate

Sl. No. BS TR SR UR WT

1 0.71 0.61 0.83 0.88 0.65

2 0.70 0.69 0.71 0.78 0.73

3 0.61 0.70 0.69 0.85 0.76

4 0.95 0.79 0.68 0.76 0.76

5 0.61 0.54 0.66 0.90 0.78

6 0.61 0.72 0.72 0.90 0.85

7 0.51 0.67 0.71 0.83 0.80

8 0.51 0.75 0.75 0.80 0.78

9 0.67 0.86 0.78 0.90 0.85

Coordinated Modes

BS TR SR UR WT RowSums

BS - 7 8 8 8.5 31.5

TR 2 - 7 8 8 25

SR 1 2 - 8 6 17

UR 1 1 1 - 2 5

WT 0.5 1 3 7 - 11.5

Col.Sums

4.5 11 19 31 24.5 90

Dominance Matrix obtained for Pessimistic Aggregation

Coordinated Modes

BS TR SR UR WT RowSums

BS - 5 7 8 6 26

TR 4 - 6 8 7 25

SR 2 3 - 9 8 22

UR 1 1 0 - 0.5 2.5

WT 3 2 1 8.5 - 14.5

Col.Sums

10 11 14 33.5 21.5 90

Dominance Matrix for Optimistic Aggregation

Final Ranking and % share by each coordinated modes by both the techniques are:

BS TR SR UR WT Total

RelativeRanking

5 4 3 2 1

% share bycoordinated modes

5.0 12.2 21.1 34.5 27.2 100

Ranking and % of modal share for Pessimistic Aggregation

Ranking and % of modal share for Optimistic Aggregation

BS TR SR UR WT Total

RelativeRanking

5 4 3 2 1

% share bycoordinated modes

11.1 12.2 15.6 37.2 23.9 100

•The % modal shares among the co-ordinated modes by both the methods are :

•This indicates the order of priority

•The approaches give the qualitative as well as quantitative appraisal of the share of different mass transit modes.

UR WR SR TR BC

Pessimistic Approach 34.5 27.2 21.1 12.2 5.0

Optimistic Approach 37.2 23.9 15.6 12.2 11.1

METAGAME ANALYSISMETAGAME ANALYSIS

PlayerPlayer OptionsOptions StrategyStrategy OutcomeOutcome Stability AnalysisStability Analysis

Unilateral ImprovementsUnilateral Improvements

Inescapable SanctionsInescapable Sanctions

Inescapable ImprovementsInescapable Improvements

Set theory logic classical

game theory

Metalevel

Analysis

Technique of application (analysis of

choice)

Checking the theory

byexperiment

Application

Situation or conflict :- a ‘game’

Major decision makers :- identified as ‘players’

Specified no. of options with the player

A possible selection of options for a particular player :- his ‘strategy’

Situation where each player chooses a strategy :- ‘outcome’

METALEVEL

ANALYSIS

Application of Metagame Analysis

Case Study for implementation of underground railway system in the city of Calcutta

Conflict between the users and the implementers regarding the fares for underground railway

Stability Analysis

Conflicting conditionChoice values for

the conflicts A B

Stable Solution

I. Implementers want to introduce UR.

They are reluctant to offer fare less than

the existing fare.

I0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1

0

Commuters are interested to use UR and also want less fare than existing one

C1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0

0

II. Implementers are willing to introduceUR and may or may not provide less farethan the existing one

I1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0

0

Commuters are reluctant to use UR ifthe fare is not like the existing one.

C1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1

0

III. Implementers are indifferent to introduce UR and reluctant to offer fareless than the existing one .

I0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1

0

Commuters are willing to avail the service of UR even the fare does not go below the existing one.

C0 1 1 0 1 1 0 0

1

ADVANTAGES helps in the resolution of conflicts helps in the resolution of conflicts

between parties having a difference of between parties having a difference of opinion.opinion.

a non-quantitative method of analysisa non-quantitative method of analysis

LIMITATIONS quite complicated in case of multi player quite complicated in case of multi player

and multi choice conditionsand multi choice conditions May not always lead to a stable solutionMay not always lead to a stable solution

CASE STUDIESCASE STUDIES

The following case studies will be discussed:

Mumbai - Pune Expressway Project

The 50 Flyovers Project (Mumbai Traffic Improvement Mega-Project)

Western Freeway Sea Link Project

Bandra - Worli Sea Link Project, etc.

SUMMARYSUMMARY Traditional four stage Transportation

Planning methodology is discussed. Fundamentals behind the various

techniques adopted in decision making for mega transportation infrastructure projects are discussed.

An insight is provided into the procedure involved from conception to implementation stage supported by case studies of various transportation projects.

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS Projects should be well-conceived and

economically efficient, using latest tools for decision analysis.

Decision analysis should be through PMC , TAC as well as conflict resolution, for different stages in the projects.

It is necessary to have appropriate institutional set up for effective conception, planning, prioritization, decision analysis, PMC/contractor selection and effective implementation through Q/A checks.

Thank YouThank You