TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Andrés Monzón, Paul Pfaffenbichler, Elena López, Andrés Olmo UPM-TRANSYT

TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE

UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID

Andrés Monzón, Paul Pfaffenbichler, Elena López, Andrés Olmo

UPM-TRANSYT

www.transyt.upm.es

WORK UNDERWAY IN

WP5

SBF meeting 3/3/2006

http://www.transyt.upm.es/



SCENARIOS-POLICY STRATEGIES

MODEL OUTPUTS- PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

WP5:EVALUATION

AND ASSESSMENT

OF SCENARIOSWP4: SCENARIO IMPACTS

WP3: DEFINITION

OF SCENARIOS

WP6:CONCLUSIONS

AND POLICY GUIDELINES

ACHIEVEMENT OF EU POLICY

GOALS?

EU POLICY

RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER WPs



Outline of the MCA methodology

DEFINITION OF SCENARIOS (WP3)

POLICY OBJ ECTIVES

PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

SCENARIO IMPACTS (MODEL RUNS-WP4)

CRITERIA WEIGHTS

INTEGRATION OF RESULTS

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

CONCLUSIONS (WP6)

EVALUATION MATRIX

VALUE FUNCTIONS



POLICY OBJ ECTIVES

POLICY OBJ ECTIVES


ASSESSMENT CRITERIA

SCENARIO IMPACTS (MODEL RUNS-WP4)SCENARIO IMPACTS (MODEL RUNS-WP4)

CRITERIA WEIGHTS



CONCLUSIONS (WP6)





CONCLUSIONS (WP6)

EVALUATION MATRIX

EVALUATION MATRIX

VALUE FUNCTIONS



ASSESSMENT CRITERIACRITERIA SUB-CRITERIA

Efficiency and security of energy supply

Reducing total energy consumption

Reducing import dependence

Increasing % of renewables

Reducing energy consumption per unit of transport/economic activity

Environmental

Global warming

Emissions of PM/NOx

Emissions of traffic noise

SocialIncreasing transport safety

Improving equity

Competitiveness

Changes in accessibility

Increasing regional GDP

Increasing employment rates

Decoupling transport and GDP growth




CRITERIA SUB-CRITERIA PERFORMANCE INDICATORS



Total energy consumption (toE)

Reducing import dependence % of energy from imports

Increasing % of renewables % of energy from renewable sources


toE/trip

toE/GDP

Environmental

Global warmingCO2/pers-km, t-km

total CO2

Emissions of PM/NOx Atmospheric emissions

Emissions of traffic noise Noise emitted

Social

Increasing transport safety Total Deaths/Injuries

Improving equity Territorial cohesion indicators of accessibility, GDP & employment

Competitiveness

Changes in accessibility % change (each mode)

Increasing regional GDP % change GDP

Increasing employment rates % change unemployment rates

Decoupling transport and GDP growth

(%GDP growth-%transport growth)



RESPONSES TO THE QUESTIONNAIRE

PER COUNTRY

4 2 17

6

37

5 4

Austria Belgium Finland Germany

Italy Spain The Netherlands United Kingdom

•Low rate of anwers in some countries

•Some missing

Finland Norway

Greece Denmark

Portugal Sweden

Switzerland

France

New acc. countries

•Consistency

•Further analysis

Regional

Economic level




8

Reducing import dependence 4Increasing % of renewables 7

Emissions of traffic noise 6

Increasing regional GDP 4Increasing employment rates 6Decoupling transport and GDP growth

4



Environmental

Global warming

Emissions of PM/NOx

Competitiveness

Changes in accessibility 12

Improving equity 9Social

Increasing transport safety 11

20

26

11

7

11

26

28

WEIGHTS BY CRITERIA AND SUBCRITERIA



SOME PREVIOUS CONSIDERATIONS

• Each model provides different indicators each model has a different weighting system

• Difficulty of providing a “common” value function for each indicator each indicator has a different value function in each model.

• No single model provides all the indicators it is not possible to compute a strict “global” utility value

• Scenarios are compared:– individually for each model– both in terms of each of the four criteria groups and “aggregated”

• Models are compared in broad terms: – only the direction of the effect on utility values



0

1

Uti

lity

val

ue

0,9*Least preferred value

1,1*Most preferred value

PERFORMANCE MATRIX

SCORES AGGREGATION

CRITERIA WEIGHTS

VALUE FUNCTIONS



No policies Bussiness as usual

Technology investments

Demand regulation

Integrated policy

Low oil price growth A-1 A0 A1 A2 A3

High oil price growth B-1 B0 B1 B2 B3

Extreme fuel price growth

C-1 C0 C1 C2 C3

COMPARISON ACROSS SCENARIOS AND/OR MODELS

OIL PRICE EFFECT

POLICY EFFECT

EUROPEAN MODELS

ASTRASCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

ASTRA-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

A-1

B-1

B-1

B-1A-1

B-1

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

85.0

ENERGY ENVIRONMENT SOCIAL COMPETITIVENESS

UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

ASTRA-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

A-1

A0A0

A1

A1

A1

A2A2

A2

A2

A-1

A0

A0

A1

5.0

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

85.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

SASISCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

SASI-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

B-1 B-1C-1

C-1

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

SASI-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

A0

A0

A1

A1

A2

A2

A3

A3

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

POLESSCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

POLES-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A0

B0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

POLES-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A0

A1

A2

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

REGIONAL/LOCAL MODELS

DORTMUNDSCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

DORTMUND-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

A-1

A-1

B-1B-1

B-1

B-1C-1

C-1

C-1

C-1

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

DORTMUND-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

A-1A0

A0

A1

A1

A1

A1

A2

A2 A2

A2

A3

A3

A3

A3

A-1

A0

A0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

EDINBURGHSCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

EDINBURGH-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

A-1

B-1

B-1

B-1

A-1

B-1

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

85.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

EDINBURGH-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A1

A1A1

A2

A2

A2

A2

A-1A-1

A-1

A0

A0

A0

A0A1

15.0

25.0

35.0

45.0

55.0

65.0

75.0

85.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

S.TYROLSCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

S.TYROL-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

B-1

B-1

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

S.TYROL-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1A0

A1

A1

A2

A2

A0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

HELSINKISCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

HELSINKI-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

A-1

B-1

B-1B-1

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

HELSINKI-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1

A-1

A-1

A0

A0

A1

A1

A1

A2

A2

A2

A0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

BRUSSELSSCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

BRUSSELS-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1A-1

B-1

B-1

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

BRUSSELS-SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

A-1A-1

A0

A1

A1A2

A2

A0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0


UT

ILIT

Y V

AL

UE

BROAD COMPARISON ACROSS MODELS

ASTRA SASIEnergy 132,0 - Environment 142,4 - Social 115,1 111,3Competitiveness 97,2 61,3

B-1 vs A-1

ASTRA SASI ASTRA SASI ASTRA SASIEnergy 193,4 - 289,0 - 343,6 - Environment 144,8 - 185,2 - 274,0 - Social 116,4 117,1 123,2 125,9 190,1 102,9Competitiveness 71,2 75,9 75,2 85,1 11,0 54,4

A0 vs A-1 A1 vs A-1 A2 vs A-1

FUEL PRICE EFFECT

POLICY EFFECT

EUROPEAN MODELS

A-1=100

FUEL PRICE EFFECT

REGIONAL MODELS (I)

Edin S.Tyr Hel Dort BrussEnergy 110,0 - 237,9 270,4 527,5Environment 113,1 114,8 207,0 136,5 557,3Social 106,8 102,6 177,3 135,2 - Competitiveness 125,9 - - 76,7 -

B-1 vs A-1

A-1=100

POLICY EFFECT


A1 vs A-1

REGIONAL MODELS (II)


A2 vs A-1

A-1=100


A0 vs A-1

Some final considerations

• Heterogeneity among models difficults their comparison• Fuel price increase & modelled policies generally

improves Energy, Environment &Social criteria. • However, they reduce economic growth and constrain

mobility in most cases: reduces competitiveness: which is the trade-off??

• Policy effects: demand regulation performs better than tech.investments in energy&environment criteria

• Planned sensitivity analysis to criteria weights

Documents

TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Andrés Monzón, Paul Pfaffenbichler, Elena López, Andrés Olmo UPM-TRANSYT