Treasury Bills Forecast

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    UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES DILIMAN

    EXTENSION PROGRAM IN PAMPANGA

    PHILIPPINE TREASURY BILL RATES PROJECTIONS

    A PARTIAL REQUIREMENT

    FOR

    BM 145: INVESTMENTS

    Prepared B:

    Sapnu, Clarissa T.

    2012 - 22!1

    BM 145 SV!X" Se#$%d Se&e'(er" A#ade&)# Year *+15,*+1-

    S./&)((ed ($:

    Pr"#. N$rissa Cal%a

    Da(e $0 S./&)'')$%

    &a' 21, 201!

  • 8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast

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    *

    Su%%ar'

     T)' paper 0$#.'e' $% (e pr$2e#()$% $0 P)3)pp)%e Trea'.r B)33 Ra(e' 0$r .%e

    *+1- Fa#($r' (a( #$.3d a6e#( (e ra(e' $0 Trea'.r B)33' are a3'$ e&pa')7ed )% ()'

    paper

     Trea'.r B)33' $r T,/)33' are 'e#.r)()e' )''.ed / (e 8$9er%&e%( Te are

    #$%')dered (e 'a0e'( )%9e'(&e%( /e#a.'e $0 (e)r r)',0ree %a(.re P.r#a')%8

     Trea'.r /)33' &ea%' (a( $. are 3e%d)%8 &$%e ($ (e 8$9er%&e%( Trea'.r B)33'

    are a9a)3a/3e )% (ree (e%$r': ;1,da" 1a( $. /)d 0$r

    ?$&pe()()9e /)dd)%8' are 0$r /)88er )%9e'($r' T$ de(er&)%e (e a&$.%( $0 'e#.r)()e'

    a9a)3a/3e 0$r #$&pe()()9e /)dder'" (e %$%,#$&pe()()9e /)d' are @r'( ded.#(ed 0r$&

    (e ($(a3 a&$.%( $0 'e#.r)( a%d (e re'( )' a9a)3a/3e ($ #$&pe()()9e /)dder' Te

    8$9er%&e%( (e% a''e' (e )8e'( /)dd)%8' a%d a>ard (e #$rre'p$%d)%8 >)%%er'

    !)%%)%8 /)d' are %$( p./3)#3 a%%$.%#ed /.( (e a&$.%( $0 (e 'e#.r)()e' $6ered )'

    re3ea'ed / (e 8$9er%&e%(

    I%9e'()%8 $% Trea'.r B)33' )' &ade ea')er >)( &$re @%a%#)a3 )%'()(.()$%'

    $6er)%8 (e 'e#.r)()e' I%9e'($r' #a% pr$#eed ($ (e)r pre0erred /a%' ($ )%.)re

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    =

    a/$.( (e)r Trea'.r /)33' pr$8ra&' I%9e'($r' #a% a3'$ d)re#(3 #e# (e pr$8ra&'

    $6ered / (e B.rea. $0 Trea'.r" (e 8$9er%&e%( 'e#($r re'p$%')/3e 0$r &a%a8)%8

     Trea'.r B)33'

    F$r (e pa'( @9e ear'" (e (re%d $0 Trea'.r /)33 ra(e' a' /ee% .#(.a()%8

    d.e ($ '$&e e9e%(' (a( #a.'ed a% e)(er )%#rea'e $r de#rea'e $% (e ra(e' S$&e

    $0 (e'e e9e%(' are C1 BSP' %e> p$3)#)e'" C* #a%8e )% (e 3e9e3 $0 8$9er%&e%(

    'pe%d)%8" a%d C= US Fed' )%.e%#e $% (e &are(

    M$%)($r)%8 (e ra(e' $0 (e Trea'.r /)33' )' e''e%()a3 )% p3a%%)%8 0.(.re

    )%9e'(&e%(' a%d a''e'')%8 )%9e'(&e%( p$r(0$3)$ D)6ere%( 0$re#a'()%8 &$de3' #a%

    /e .'ed )% pr$2e#()%8 (e 0.(.re (re%d $0 Trea'.r /)33 ra(e' I% ()' paper" =

    0$re#a'()%8 &e($d >ere .'ed: C1 Na9e appr$a#" C* M$9)%8 a9era8e &e($d"

    a%d C= Tre%d F$re#a'()%8 M$de3 Be3$> are (e 0$re#a'(ed 9a3.e' 0$r .%e *+1-

    .')%8 (e (ree 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d'

    Na()$ Appr"a*+ &")in A)$ra$ Tr$n Anal'sis

    1-a' 1-4 155* Q* =*+5

    1/2-a' 1-5+ 1-*- Q* ==1-

    !-a' 1

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    4

    * S.pp3a I%#rea'e )% 8$9er%&e%( 'pe%d)%8 )%#rea'e' '.pp3 $0 T,/)33'

    )%#rea')%8 (e ra(e/ De#rea'e )% 8$9er%&e%( 'pe%d)%8 de#rea'e' '.pp3 $0 T,/)33'

    de#rea')%8 (e ra(e= E#$%$&)# #$%d)()$%'

    a EJpa%')$% )%#rea'e' ra(e' 0$r T,/)33'/ Re#e'')$% de#rea'e' ra(e' 0$r T,/)33'

    4 I%a()$% eJpe#(a()$%'a H)8 )%a()$% eJpe#(a()$% )8 ra(e' 0$r T,/)33'/ L$> )%a()$% eJpe#(a()$% 3$> ra(e' 0$r T,/)33'

    I% pr$2e#()%8 (e 0.(.re (re%d $0 Trea'.r B)33'" )( )' )&p$r(a%( ($ #$%')der /$(

    .a%()(a()9e a%d .a3)(a()9e 0a#($r' Q.a%()(a()9e 0a#($r' '.# a' 0$re#a'(ed 9a3.e'

    #a% e3p )%9e'($r' 0$re'ee p$'')/3e 0.(.re ra(e' 0$r T,/)33' Q.a3)(a()9e 0a#($r' '.#

    a' (e $%e' &e%()$%ed a/$9e '$.3d a3'$ /e #$%')dered /e#a.'e (e'e 0a#($r'

    &)8( a6e#( 0.(.re )%9e'(&e%( de#)')$%' I% (e e%d" )( )' '()33 .p ($ (e )%9e'($r ($

    de#)de Te &e%()$%ed 0a#($r' are $%3 )%d)#a($r' $% $> 'pe#)@# 'e#.r)()e' >)33

    /ea9e Te per'$%a3)( $0 (e )%9e'($r )' a3'$ a &a2$r 0a#($r (a( a6e#(' )'Ker

    )%9e'(&e%( de#)')$%'

    Tal$ "# C"n3$n3s

    I I%(r$d.#()$%5

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    5

    A !a( are Trea'.r B)33'5

    B H$> Trea'.r B)33' !$r-

    ? ! I%9e'( $% Trea'.r B)33'-

    D H$> ($ I%9e'( $% Trea'.r B)33'

    II Pre'e%(a()$% $0 Da(a<

    A O9era33 Tre%d $0 Trea'.r B)33'<

    B Trea'.r B)33 Ra(e' F$re#a'(1+

    a Na9e F$re#a'()%8 Me($d1+

    / M$9)%8 A9era8e Me($d11

    # Tre%d F$re#a'(1=

    ? Fa#($r' (a( A6e#( Trea'.r B)33 Ra(e'1

    III ?$%#3.')$%1<

    IV Appe%d)J1;

    Appe%d)J A 1;

    Appe%d)J B *+

    Appe%d)J ? *1

    V B)/3)$8rap*4

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    -

    I. In3r"u*3i"n

    A. 4+a3 ar$ Tr$asur' Bills5

     Trea'.r B)33' $r T, /)33' are '$r(,(er& pr$&)''$r %$(e' )''.ed / (e

    Na()$%a3 G$9er%&e%( Te'e are d)re#(" .%#$%d)()$%a3" a%d 0.33 8.ara%(eed

    $/3)8a()$%' $0 (e Rep./3)# $0 (e P)3)pp)%e' T, /)33' are (e &$'( a#()9e3, (raded

    7er$,#$.p$% de/( )%'(r.&e%('1 T /)33' are /e'( re#$&&e%ded 0$r )%d)9)d.a3 a%d

    #$rp$ra(e )%9e'($r' >$ are 3$$)%8 0$r '$r( (er& a%d r)',0ree )%9e'(&e%(

    a3(er%a()9e' I% (e P)3)pp)%e' (e B.rea. $0 Trea'.r &a%a8e' (e Trea'.r B)33'

     T, /)33' are 'e#.r)( )''.ed / (e G$9er%&e%( B.)%8 $%e &ea%' (a( $.

    are 3e%d)%8 &$%e ($ (e G$9er%&e%( U'.a33" T,/)33' are '$3d 0$r 3e'' (a% >a(

    (e are a#(.a33 >$r( F$r eJa&p3e" a T,/)33 &a /e >$r( Pp1"+++" /.( $. #a%

    /. )( 0$r Pp;++ T, /)33' are )''.ed >)( ;1,da'" 1

  • 8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast

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    PV Pr)%#)pa3 Va3.e $0 Trea'.r B)33

    ( (er& $r (e%$r Ce8 ;1 da'

    d d)'#$.%(

    B. H"6 Tr$asur' Bills 4"r7 

     Trea'.r /)33' are )''.ed (r$.8 a #$&pe()()9e /)dd)%8 pr$#e'' a( a.#()$%'

     Te a.#()$% >)33 '(ar( >)( a% a%%$.%#e&e%( 0r$& (e 8$9er%&e%( Te 8$9er%&e%(

    >)33 )''.e (e p./3)# $6er)%8 >)( (e a&$.%( $0 (e T,/)33' ($ /e a.#()$%ed >)( (e)r

    #$rre'p$%d)%8 &a(.r)( da(e' CSee Appe%d)J A a%d B Tere are (>$ (pe' $0 /)d':

    %$%,#$&pe()()9e a%d #$&pe()()9e I% %$%,#$&pe()()9e /)dd)%8" $. >)33 re#e)9e (e

    0.33 a&$.%( $0 (e 'e#.r)( a( (e re(.r% de(er&)%ed a( (e a.#()$% N$%,#$&pe()()9e

    /)d' are .'.a33 './&)((ed / '&a33 )%9e'($r' a%d )%d)9)d.a3' !)( #$&pe()()9e

    /)dd)%8" $. a9e ($ 'pe#)0 (e re(.r% (a( $. >$.3d 3)e ($ re#e)9e I0 (e re(.r%

    $. 'pe#)0 )' ($$ )8" $. &)8( %$( re#e)9e a% 'e#.r)()e'" $r 2.'( a p$r()$% $0 

    >a( $. /)d 0$r ?$&pe()()9e /)dd)%8' are 0$r /)88er )%9e'($r'=

     T$ de(er&)%e (e >)%%)%8 /)d'" (e B.rea. $0 Trea'.r >)33 >$r (e)r >a

    d$>% (e 3)'( $0 (e /)dder'" a##ep()%8 (e )8e'( /)d' F)r'(" (e depar(&e%( &.'(

    %$> (e a&$.%( $0 'e#.r)()e' a9a)3a/3e 0$r (e %$%,#$&pe()()9e /)dder' T)' )'

    d$%e / './(ra#()%8 (e %$%,#$&pe()()9e /)d' 0r$& (e ($(a3 a&$.%( $0 'e#.r)()e'

    $6ered Te re'( $0 (e a&$.%( >)33 (e% /e a9a)3a/3e 0$r (e #$&pe()()9e /)dder'

     Te de(a)3ed 3)'( $0 a##ep(ed a%d re2e#(ed #$&pe()()9e /)d' )' %$( re3ea'ed ($ (e

    p./3)#" /.( (e ($(a3 a&$.%( $0 /)d' re#e)9ed a%d ($(a3 a##ep(ed are &ade a9a)3a/3e

    C. 4+' In)$s3 "n Tr$asur' Bills

    S)%#e )%9e'()%8 $% #$&pa% '($#' )' #$%')dered r)'" $. &)8( >a%( ($

    #$%')der )%9e'()%8 $% 8$9er%&e%( 'e#.r)()e' '.# a' Trea'.r B)33' T)' (pe $0 

    )%9e'(&e%( )' r)',0ree /e#a.'e (ere )' a 9er 3$> #a%#e (a( (e 8$9er%&e%( >)33

    de0a.3( $% )(' $>% #.rre%# de/( Te)r '$r(,(er& %a(.re )' a3'$ a 0a#($r /e#a.'e

    $. >)33 %$( $>% (e& 3$%8 e%$.8 0$r )%a()$% ($ a9e a #a%#e ($ ')8%)@#a%(3

    = $/a" Mar Trea'.r B$%d A.#()$%: ?NB? EJp3a)%' CNBC. a%.ar *4" *+1=((p:KK>>>#%/##$&K)dK1++4+5+;- Ca##e''ed Ma 1" *+1-

  • 8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast

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    er$de (e)r 9a3.e A( (e 'a&e ()&e" (e 3a> re.)re' (e Trea'.r ($ pa (e& /a#

    F.r(er&$re" ')%#e (e Trea'.r #a% pr)%( )(' $>% &$%e" (ere' e''e%()a33 %$

    #a%#e (a( $. >$%( /e pa)d /a#4

    I%(ere'( #a% a3'$ /e 8e%era(ed /e0$re $r $% (e &a(.r)( da(e $0 (e 'e#.r)( T$.8 T,/)33' are %$( (e )8e'( pa)%8 )%9e'(&e%( a9a)3a/3e" (e a&$.%( $0 

    )%(ere'( )' #$%')dera/3 )8 e%$.8 (a% %$r&a3 'a9)%8' a##$.%( $r ()&e dep$')(

    a##$.%(

    . H"6 3" In)$s3 "n Tr$asur' Bills

    !ere ($ /. (rea'.r /)33' )% (e P)3)pp)%e'

     Y$. #a% p.r#a'e T,/)33' 0r$& a /r$er $r dea3er Y$. #a% a3'$ p.r#a'e d)re#(3 0r$&

    (e B.rea. $0 Trea'.r (r$.8 (e)r p./3)# $6er)%8' A3(er%a(e3" $. #a% a3'$

    p.r#a'e 0r$& /a%' $r $(er @%a%#)a3 )%'()(.()$%' (a( $6er Trea'.r B)33' Be3$>

    are '$&e $0 (e )%'()(.()$%' (a( $6er' Trea'.r B)33'5

    1. PNB 8P+ilippin$ Na3i"nal Ban79

    • M)%)&.& )%9e'(&e%( )' P*++"+++

    •  Te%$r' are a9a)3a/3e )% ;1" 1

  • 8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast

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    ;

    •  Tra%'a#()$% D$#.&e%( : ?$%@r&a()$% N$()#e

    Fea(.re': I( #a% /e .'ed a' #$33a(era3 0$r 3$a%' >)( BDO I%(ere'( )%#$&e $% (e

    )%9e'(&e%( )' './2e#( ($ *+ @%a3 >)($3d)%8 (aJ

    . BPI 8Ban7 "# 3+$ P+ilippin$ Islans9

    • M)%)&.& p.r#a'e P1++"+++ 0$r =-4,Da (rea'.r /)33'

    • )%(ere'( ra(e )' './2e#(ed ($ *+ (aJ

    . &$3r"an7 

    • M)%)&.& a&$.%( re.)red: P5++"+++

    •  Te%$r' $0 ;1" 1)# )' de(er&)%ed /a'ed

    $% 'e9era3 0a#($r' '.# a' (e de&a%d a%d '.pp3 0$r (e 'e#.r)(" a%d (e )%a()$%

    ra(e Te '.&&ar $0 (e Trea'.r B)33 ra(e' per ear )' '$>% )% Appe%d)J ?

    - A/$.( G$9er%&e%( Se#.r)()e' Bureau of Treasury. ((p:KK>>>(rea'.r8$9pK

    pa8e)d14=+ Ca##e''ed Ma 1-" *+1-

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    1+

    F)8.re 1

     Te @8.re a/$9e '$>' (e (re%d $0 (e P)3)pp)%e Trea'.r B)33' 0r$& *+1+ ($

    pre'e%( A' '$>% $% (e @8.re" (ere )' a .#(.a()%8 (re%d $% (e ra(e' $0 (e

    (rea'.r /)33' 0$r (e pa'( 5 ear'

    I% (e /e8)%%)%8 $0 *+1+" (e 8$9er%&e%( ad '$3d P5-55 /)33)$% >$r( $0 T,

    /)33' )% a% a.#()$% 3$>er (a% (e pr$8ra&&ed 'a3e $0 Pa' 14 /a')' p$)%(' 3$>er

    G$%7a3e'" Ir)' ? ;1,da Trea'.r /)33' d$>% Philstar. a%.ar *-" *+1+((p:KK>>>p)3'(ar#$&:

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    11

    (a% (e pre9a)3)%8 /e'( /)d' a( (e P)3)pp)%e Dea3)%8 a%d EJ#a%8e ?$rp" >)#

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    %eJ( p$3)# ra(e &$9e<

    I% *+1*" (e )e3d $% (e /e%#&ar ;1,da (rea'.r /)33' r$'e *+1 /a')'

    p$)%(' ($ a% a9era8e *14< per#e%( a' (e 8$9er%&e%( (r)ed ($ (e&per )%9e'($r'

    p.' 0$r )8er ra(e' I%(ere'( ra(e' $% /$( (e 1 $%e per#e%(

    A##$rd)%8 ($ (e Na()$%a3 Trea'.rer" (e pre9)$.' )e3d $% (e /e%#&ar /)33' &)8(

    a9e /ee% ($$ 3$> (a( (e &are( #$rre#(ed .p>ard 1+

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    >a' re#$rded >)( 1+-5 A##$rd)%8 ($ (e B.rea. $0 (e Trea'.r" (e (aper)%8 /

    (e US Federa3 Re'er9e pr$&p(ed /a%' ($ 'ee )8er )e3d' H$>e9er" eJ(er%a3

    de9e3$p&e%(' '$.3d %$( #a.'e a 'arp r)'e )% 3$#a3 )%(ere'( ra(e' /e#a.'e (e

    e#$%$&)# 0.%da&e%(a3' $0 (e P)3)pp)%e' re&a)%ed '$3)d R)' a9er')$% d.e ($ (e

    US Fed' (aper)%8 dr$9e ra(e' a( (e a.#()$% a/$9e pre9a)3)%8 'e#$%dar &are(

    ra(e'" pr$&p()%8 (e a.#()$% #$&&)((ee' de#)')$% ($ re2e#( /)d'11

    < ;1,da T,/)33 Y)e3d r)'e' ($ +;1; Inquirer. N$9e&/er *" *+11

    ((p:KK/.')%e'')%.)rer%e(K*

  • 8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast

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    1*

    B (e e%d $0 *+15" Trea'.r /)33 )e3d' r$'e a#r$'' (e /$ard aead $0 a 3)e3

    US Federa3 Re'er9e ra(e )e A##$rd)%8 ($ (e Trea'.r" A&)d ea3( %a()$%a3

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    ad2.'(&e%( )% 3)8( $0 (e p$'')/3e Fed ra(e 3)0(,$6 )% De#e&/er1*

     Te e9e%(' a/$9e are '$&e $0 (e 0a#(' /e)%d (e .%'(a/3e ra(e $0 Trea'.r /)33'

     Tere are 'e9era3 0a#($r' (a( #$.3d a6e#( (e )%(ere'( ra(e' '.# a' 8$9er%&e%('

    $>% p$3)#)e' a%d (e US Fed Te 'a3e $0 Trea'.r B)33' )' (e 8$9er%&e%(' >a $0 

    /$rr$>)%8 &$%e T.'" )( )' )&p$r(a%( ($ &$%)($r (e ra(e $0 Trea'.r B)33 /e#a.'e )(

    )' a3'$ a% )%d)#a($r $0 $.r e#$%$&' ea3(

    B. Tr$asur' Bill Ra3$s :"r$*as3

    D)6ere%( 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d #a% /e .'ed ($ 0$re#a'( (e 0.(.re ra(e' $0 (e

     Trea'.r B)33 I% ()' paper" (ree 0$re#a'()%8 &$de3 >)33 /e .'ed ($ 0$re#a'( (e

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    a. Na()$ :"r$*as3in &$3+"

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    &e($d" (e 3a'( per)$d' a#(.a3 9a3.e' are .'ed ($ 0$re#a'( (e %eJ( per)$d' 9a3.e

    >)($.( ad2.'()%8 (e& $r a((e&p()%8 ($ e'(a/3)' #a.'a3 0a#($r'

    201! 1-a' 1/2-a' !-a' All &a3uri3i$s

     Januar' 1-

  • 8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast

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    1=

    &a' 1-4 1-5+ 1)33 /e .'ed ($ &ae (e 0$re#a'(

    i. !"#ay Forecast  

    P$ri" 1-a' Ra3$ -p$ri" &")in

    A)$ra$:$ruar' 8201$rdpre''#$&K*+1+K+5K+-K0$re#a'(,0r)da,($p)#,&$9)%8,a9era8e,&e($d',*K Ca##e''ed Ma *+" *+1-

  • 8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast

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    14

    &ar*+ 14++April 1-;-&a' NI Jun$ 14

  • 8/16/2019 Treasury Bills Forecast

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    15

    G)9e% (e .ar(er3 da(a" (e @r'( '(ep )% (e (re%d 0$re#a'()%8 &e($d )' ($

    #$&p.(e 0$r (e #e%(er &$9)%8 a9era8e )% $rder ($ arr)9e a( a##.ra(e 'ea'$%a3

    )%d)#e' T$ 8e( (e ?MA" (ae (e a9era8e $0 (e ra(e' 0$r e9er @9e .ar(er'

    i. !"#ay Tren# Forecast  

     Y$ar ;uar3$r 1-a' C&A S$as"nal

    Ra3i"

    201 * 0./!

    = 0.!!/

    4 0.001 +-4 +++1-

    201 1 1.0!< + $s$as"nali?$ Ra3$s

    201 0./! 1*45 +=1+

    0.!!/ 1+

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