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Tree-Ring Chronologies of Western North America:California, Eastern Oregon and Northern GreatBasin with Procedures Used in the ChronologyDevelopment Work Including Users Manuals
for Computer Programs COFECHA and ARSTAN
Authors Holmes, Richard L.; Adams, Rex K.; Fritts, Harold C.
Publisher Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona (Tucson,AZ)
Rights Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents. The University of Arizona.
Download date 16/06/2018 02:31:32
Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/304672
TREE -RING CHRONOLOGIES OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN
CALIFORNIA, EASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
WITH
PROCEDURES USED IN THE CHRONOLOGY DEVELOPMENT WORK
INCLUDING
USERS MANUALS FOR COMPUTER PROGRAMS COFECHA AND ARSTAN
BY
RICHARD L. HOLMES, REX K. ADAMS AND HAROLD C. FRITTS
LABORATORY OF TREE -RING RESEARCH
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
TUCSON, ARIZONA 85721
1986
CHRONOLOGY SERIES VI
SUPPORTED BY THE
U. S. NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATIONGRANTS ATM -8026732 AND ATM -8303 i 92
TREE -RING CHRONOLOGIES OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA:
CALIFORNIA, EASTERN OREGON AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
with
PROCEDURES USED IN THE CHRONOLOGY DEVELOPMENT WORK
including
USERS MANUALS FOR COMPUTER PROGRAMS COFECHA AND ARSTAN
by
Richard L. Holmes, Rex K. Adams and Harold C. Fritts
Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research
University of Arizona
Tucson, Arizona 85721
1986
Chronology Series VI
Supported by the
U. S. National Science Foundation
Grants ATM -8026732 and ATM -8303192
ABSTRACT
Well replicated tree -ring samples were collected, dated
and measured for California west of the Sierra Nevada,
eastern Oregon and the northern Great Basin. A computer
program was developed and used to check crossdating quality.
Another computer program to generate and analyze tree -ring
chronologies was evaluated, further developed cooperatively
and used to produce chronologies for the dated site
collections.
This report contains these site chronologies in three
versions along with site descriptions and chronology
statistics. Users manuals are included for the two computer
programs. The effect on a chronology of poor crossdating is
discussed, and a study of standardization of tree -ring
measurement series is reported. Some new techniques are
described for processing tree -ring samples.
1
Jeffrey pine from the Buenavista site in California.
2
TABLE OF CONTENTSPage
List of Figures and Tables 4
Introduction 6
Background 7
Collection Strategy 7
Site Selection 8
Sampling 8
Crossdating, Measurement and Related Procedures . . . 9
Standardization and Chronology Development 14
X -ray Densitometry 14
Effects of Undiscovered Absent Rings 16
Evaluating Standardization Procedures 20
Details of Documentation 29
Details of Sample Mounting and Preparation 32
Sources of Data and Computer Programs 36
Acknowledgements 37
Literature Cited 38
Appendix 1: Quality Control of Crossdating andMeasuring: A Users Manual for ProgramCOFECHA 41
Appendix 2: Users Manual for Program ARSTAN 50
Appendix 3: Site Chronologies 66
3
LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Page
Figure 1. Map of tree -ring site chronologies 10
Figure 2. The relationship between sample size andsignal -to -noise ratio 15
Figure 3. Plot of crossdated and counted chronologiesfrom Jeffrey pine at Sorrel Peak, California. . 19
Figure 4. Two detrending curves fit to a tree -ringmeasurement series 22
Figure 5. Power spectra for two site chronologiesproduced by the INDEX /SUMAC and by theARSTAN methods 28
Figure 6. Dating and measurement conventions 31
Figure 7. Increment core mount for optical and x -raydensitometric processing 33
Figure 8. Table press for clamping mounted cores whileglue hardens 35
FIGURES APPEARING IN SITE CHRONOLOGIES (APPENDIX 3):
Figure A3 -1 ARSTAN chronology for Site 4, Horse Ridge,Oregon, Juniperus occidentalis . . 77
Figure A3 -2 ARSTAN chronology for Site 10, JarbidgeCanyon, Nevada, Juniperus scopulorum 98
Figure A3 -3 Western juniper of the northern subspeciesoccidentalis), at Site 11, Hager Basin,
102California
Figure A3 -4 ARSTAN chronology for Site 14, DaltonReservoir, California, Pinus ponderosa. . . . 112
Figure A3 -5 Ponderosa pine, Site 26, at Snow WhiteRidge, California 157
Figure A3 -6 Western juniper of the southern subspecies(australis) at Site 28, Kaiser Pass,
162California
Figure A3 -7 Jeffrey pine at Site 30, Buenavista,California 170
Figure A3 -8 ARSTAN chronology for Site 33, Sorrel Peak,California 130
4
TABLES Page
Table 1. Tree -ring chronology collections, 1981 to1985 11
Table 2. Selected statistics of Standard tree -ringchronologies 12
Table 3. Tree -ring collections from which nochronology was derived 13
Table 4. Selected statistics of chronologies and commoninterval analysis of maximum latewood densityand ring width obtained by x -ray densitometry 17
Table 5. Selected statistics àf chronologies and commoninterval analyses of crossdated and countedtree -ring measurement sets 17
Table 6. Effects of various standardization optionson selected chronology statistics 24
Table 7. Chronology statistics after curve -fittingwith INDEX or ARSTAN, Calamity Creek site . . 26
Table 8. Chronology statistics after curve- fittingwith INDEX or ARSTAN, Antelope Lake site. . . 27
5
INTRODUCTION
This is the final report of a chronology developmentproject supported by the United States National ScienceFoundation, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, ClimateDynamics Research Section, through Grants ATM -8026732 andATM -8303192. The principal Investigator was Harold C.Fritts. Richard L. Holmes was the senior research assistantand directed the field collection and the chronologydevelopment work. Rex K. Adams was research assistant andfor one year Virginia C. Kirby was research technician onthe project.
The major objective was to develop a relatively denseand uniform grid of long, well -replicated, climaticallyresponsive tree -ring chronologies for California west of thecrest of the Sierra Nevada and the Cascade Range, and foreastern Oregon and the northern Great Basin. Thesechronologies are now added to existing data to enhancespatial reconstruction of past climatic variability. Thisvolume contains the summary data on these tree -ringchronologies, along with descriptions of their statisticsand site characteristics.
The project work involved several innovations in recordkeeping, sample preparation and data processing. Amongthese are an efficient format for field notes, a versatilecore mount, a technique for straightening twisted cores,mounting and surfacing methods, and dating marks which donot interfere with subsequent densitometric use of thesamples. A computer program to assist quality control ofcrossdating and measuring was developed and used on alltree -ring data generated on the project. A computer programto produce tree -ring chronologies was developed by Edward R.Cook at Lamont -Doherty Geological Observatory, and wastested, further developed and used to produce allchronologies on this project. Users manuals for bothcomputer programs were written on this project and areincluded in this report.
6
BACKGROUND
Well -dated tree -ring chronologies (Stokes and Smiley,1968) covering a wide geographic area can provide yearlyproxy data for studies of climatic and hydrologic variationover both space and time (Earle and Fritts, 1986; Fritts etal., 1971, 1979; Hecht 1985; Hughes et al., 1980; Stocktonand Meko, 1983). The rings can be crossdated to the exactseason and year in which they were formed (Stokes andSmiley, 1968); and tree -ring chronologies can be developedfrom measurements along replicated radii sampled from manytrees in a limited geographical area.
The ring measurements are usually mathematicallytreated by a procedure called "standardization ", whichremoves the biological growth trend. Indices are calculatedby dividing the ring measurements by an estimated growthvalue, and the indices are averaged for all samples ofadequate quality to obtain the chronology values (Fritts,1976) .
Prior to this project, few tree -ring site chronologieshad been developed for California west of the crest of theSierra Nevada and the southern Cascade Range, or for easternOregon and the northern Great Basin. Keen (1937) took v-cuts from some 265 cut stumps of ponderosa pine in Oregoneast of the Cascade Range, and developed tree-ringchronologies for five sites. Antevs (1938) took v -cuts fromsome 100 cut stumps of ponderosa pine near Susanville,California and Lakeview, Oregon, and developed tree -ringchronologies for these two sites. Existing chronologieseither coverOd a relatively short time span, were ofinadequate quality for climatic studies, had too littlereplication or required updating because they were developedmore than 48 years ago.
In addition a great many areas had been disturbed soseverely by human activity such as logging, mining, railroadconstruction and fires that few old trees remained forpaleoclimatic analysis. A systematic collection effort inareas not well represented by quality tree -ring chronologieswas important to assure that this information from old treeswas not forever lost.
COLLECTION STRATEGY
The choice of species to sample was based partly on the
results of an exploratory field trip undertaken in October1980 to prepare for this project, and partly on exploratorysampling done on each field expedition. The speciesyielding the best quality tree -ring series in the region arewestern juniper (Juniperus occidentalis, both the northernsubspecies occidentalis and the southern subspeciesaustralis); Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum);ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa); Jeffrey pine (Pinus
7
jeffreyi); and sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana).
Five field expeditions averaging three weeks each werecarried out, two in the summer of 1981 and one each in thesummers of 1982, 1983 and 1985.
SITE SELECTION
A critical step in the production of useful tree -ringchronologies is to find stands of trees with a clear andmarked ring growth response to climatic variations.Information on species range, distribution, size andpotential age was obtained from the literature. Personnelof the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and theU.S. Department of the Interior National Park Service andBureau of Land Management also provided many leads thathelped us find trees suitable for sampling. Within therecommended areas it was usually necessary to locate steep,rocky, well- drained, generally south -facing slopes withwidely spaced trees and relatively sparse ground cover tofind the maximum age and ring -width variability needed foran optimum tree -ring chronology. The individual trees wereselected by their appearance and by examining the characterof the rings from an exploratory core. Trees with arelatively sparse crown, massive and irregularly taperingtrunk, few but heavy branches and generally unsymmetricappearance were usually the oldest with the strongest year -to -year ring -width variability, which is associated with astrong climatic response (Fritts, 1976). To the extentpossible, trees were avoided that had evidence of majorinjury from fire, lightning strike, ice storms, wind damage,branch cutting, logging, road building or other disturbance.
Undisturbed stands that fulfill requirements of age,year -to -year ring -width variability and crossdating weresometimes difficult to find, so some disturbance by man wasunavoidable in most of the pine sites. In such cases thesite description includes the type and severity ofdisturbance that was noted.
The juniper sites appear less disturbed than those forthe other species, but some junipers were cut for fencepostsand firewood. Most stands of juniper contain only youngtrees under 90 years of age. In those stands where a fewolder trees could be seen, old trees suitable for chronologydevelopment could usually be found with some searching.
SAMPLING
Generally two increment core samples were taken fromopposite sides of each tree. More than two cores were takenin the case of a particularly old individuals with markedyear -to -year variability in ring width. Between thirty and
8
fifty trees were sampled if that many suitable trees couldbe found in the area. This provided ample replication sothat any cores from young trees or cores revealing sitedisturbance or growth anomalies could be deleted from thesample in order to enhance the overall reliability of thechronology.
Records were kept, with description and sketch of thelayout of the site, showing where trees were sampled andincluding information on access, latitude, longitude andelevation, and details on geology, ground cover, standdensity and associated species. This information ispresented in the site descriptions and some is listed inTable 2. Photographs (35 mm color slides) were taken of thesite and of some typical trees. Detailed notes were made oneach sampled tree, including succinct characterization ofheight, diameter, appearance of trunk, crown and foliage,visible scars, relationship to nearby trees, direction andsteepness of slope, and from where on the trunk the coresamples were extracted.
Figure 1 and Table 1 present information on all sitecollections from which chronologies were derived. Table 3contains information on other site collections from which nochronology was developed.
CROSSDATING, MEASUREMENT, AND RELATED PROCEDURES
Core samples were dried, mounted, surfaced andexamined. Some cores were rejected for further processingbecause they 1) spanned short time periods (under 150 to 200years), 2) had weak crossdating as indicated by a lowcorrelation with other cores in the site, 3) containedobvious scar tissue or other evidence of severe injury,4) exhibited pronounced growth surges, periods ofsuppression or badly twisted segments, or 5) were found tohave indistinct ring boundaries.
The remaining cores were dated. Binocular zoommicroscopes (7 to 45 power) were used to examine the coresand the procedures of crossdating followed those of Stokesand Smiley (1968). After all rings were dated, widths weremeasured to the nearest 0.01 mm on computerized measuringmachines as described by Robinson and Evans (1980). Spotchecks of some measurement series were made by Holmes toassure their accuracy. A second and more thorough check wasmade using a computer- assisted method, Program COFECHA,developed by Holmes (see Appendix 1). This method examinesall series from a site throughout their length, pointing outlocations within series that may have weak or erroneouscrossdating or measurement error. These cores andmeasurement series were then reexamined by a researcher toevaluate the possible weaknesses and to make correctionswhere they were necessary. A second run of Program COFECHA
9
o
OREGON
SPR
COMHOR CAL
aLOS LIT
STEGRA
IDAHO
SHR HAG
DAL TIMJAC
CALIFORNIA LIK
J
ANT NEVADA
SSHBLU
ANTr
HHA I FEL LEMSJM DON
Scale
SNOJeffrey pine Pines jeffreyi
JAR
TREE -RING SITE CHRONOLOGIES
Site code appears adjacentto species symbol
Western juniper Juniperus occidentalis
Rocky Mountain juniper Juniperus scopulorum
Ponderosa pine Pines siderosa
DDFKAI Sugar pine Pinus lambertiana
BLAs
O
BUE
KEN
PIU SOR
500 km
300 mi
Figure 1. Map of tree -ring site chronologies.
l0
Table
Order
N - S
1. Tree -ring chronology collections, 1981 to 1985,
Site Species Latitude
Code Site name State code North
listed north to south.
Longitude Altitude Trees
West meters sampled
1 SPR SPRING CANYON OR Juoc 44 54 118 55 1340 -1610 39
2 COM COMMITTEE CREEK OR Juoc 44 10 120 14 1486 -1518 31
3 CAL CALAMITY CREEK OR Juoc 43 59 118 48 1433 -1494 40
4 HOR HORSE RIDGE OR Juoc 43 58 121 04 1109 -1183 43
5 FRE FREDERICK BUTTE OR Juoc 43 35 120 27 1433 -1554 50
6 LOS LOST FOREST OR Pipo 43 22 120 18 1364 -1384 26
7 LIT LITTLE JUNIPER MTN OR Juoc 43 08 119 52 1524 -1768 49
8 STE STEENS MTN OR Juoc 42 40 118 55 1625 -1686 48
9 GRA GRASSHOPPER TRAIL ID Juoc 42 31 116 48 1689 -1713 49
10 JAR JARBIDGE CANYON NV Jusc 41 56 115 25 1753 -1951 38
11 HAG HAGER BASIN CA Juoc 41 46 120 45 1518 -1530 27
12 SHR SHARP MTN CA Juoc 41 44 121 49 1335 -1500 42
13 TIM TIMBERED MTN CA Juoc 41 43 120 45 1555 -1616 16
14 DAL DALTON RES CA Pipo 41 39 120 58 1463 -1524 20
15 JAC JACKSON MTS NV Juoc 41 18 118 26 2024 -2170 43
16 LIK LIKELY MTN CA Pije 41 09 120 34 1744 -1878 16
17 ANT ANTELOPE LAKE CA Pije 40 09 120 36 1366 -1561 26
18 ANT ANTELOPE LAKE CA Pipo 40 09 120 36 1366 -1561 15
19 BLU BLUE BANKS CA Pije 39 40 122 58 1537 -1659 30
20 HHA HELLS HALF ACRE CA Pije 39 36 122 57 1890 -1954 13
21 SSH SUMMIT SPRINGS HILL CA Pipo 39 36 122 44 1756 -1811 15
22 LEM LEMON CANYON CA Pije 39 34 120 15 1707 -2012 36
23 FEL FELKNER RIDGE * CA Pila 39 30 122 40 1433 -1555 35
24 SJM ST JOHN MTN CA Pipo 39 26 122 41 1427 -1939 27
25 DON DONNER SUMMIT CA Pije 39 19 120 21 2201 -2329 11
26 SNO SNOW WHITE RIDGE CA Pipo 38 08 120 03 1696 -1743 15
27 DDF DEVILS DANCE FLOOR CA Pije 37 45 119 45 1951 -2084 17
28 KAI KAISER PASS CA Juoc 37 17 119 05 2633 -2829 36
29 BLA BLACK CREEK CA Pipo 37 15 119 16 1774 -1902 36
30 BUE BUENAVISTA CA Pije 36 43 118 55 2146 -2414 50
31 KEN KENNEDY MEADOWS CA Pije 36 02 118 11 1902 -2146 31
32 PIU PIUTE MTNS CA Pije 35 32 118 26 1951 -2012 22
& Pipo
33 SOR SORREL PEAK CA Pije 35 26 118 17 1975 -2256 25
* Collected by other than University of Arizona personnel.
11
Table
Order
N - S
2.
Selected statistics of 'Standard tree-ring chronologies
Auto-
Auto-
Site
Spec
Chronology
No of
No of
Mean
Std
corn
regr.
code
code
time span
trees
radii
sens
dev
ord 1
model
Error variance
Stndrd Arstan
Common
interval
1SPR
Juoc
1405 -1982
31
59
.29
.35
.44
2.0130
.0086
1847 -1982
2COM
Juoc
1260 -1982
22
40
.27
.31
.41
2.0104
.0069
1747 -1982
3CAL
Juoc
1396 -1982
29
49
.27
.28
.23
2.0059
.0051
1774 -1981
4HOR
Juoc
1281 -1982
36
66
.58
.53
.31
2.0114
.0109
1755 -1982
5FRE
Juoc
1097 -1982
32
76
.46
.41
.19
3.0062
.0055
1750 -1982
6LOS
Pipo
1459 -1982
23
48
.30
.38
.61
2.0044
.0054
1624 -1982
7LIT
Juoc
1377 -1982
35
66
.43
.39
.23
5.0099
.0075
1781 -1982
8STE
Juoc
1501 -1982
25
50
.25
.26
.35
2.0035
.0025
1785 -1982
9GRA
Juoc
1492 -1984
30
61
.27
.28
.27
2.0049
.0028
1769 -1976
10
JAR
Jusc
1334 -1984
21
42
.27
.28
.28
3.0070
.0050
1764 -1984
11
HAG
Juoc
1310 -1980
24
54
.23
.24
.27
2.0058
.0037
1803 -1980
12
SHR
Juoc
1548 -1982
27
50
.31
.33
.29
2.0243
.0222
1801 -1981
13
TIM
Juoc
1654 -1980
13
22
.22
.25
.43
2.0075
.0048
1777 -1972
14
DAL
Pipo
1357 -1980
20
43
.21
.30
.65
3.0077
.0077
1692 -1975
15
JAC
Juoc
1267 -1984
29
72
.27
.27
.28
2.0068
.0055
1758 -1981
16
LIK
Pije
1653 -1980
14
27
.24
.27
.48
3.0038
.0040
1859 -1980
17
ANT
Pije
1471 -1980
25
56
.15
.20
.60
3.0040
.0038
1727 -1980
18
ANT
Pipo
1484 -1980
13
32
.17
.21
.57
3.0043
.0054
1703 -1975
19
BLU
Pije
1318 -1980
24
57
.16
.19
.45
3.0054
.0044
1656 -1926
20
HHA
Pije
1497 -1980
13
30
.15
.17
.40
3.0039
.0028
1682 -1948
21
SSH
Pipo
1582 -1980
12
26
.15
.17
.35
3.0053
.0036
1686 -1830
22
LEM
Pije
1415 -1980
34
64
.20
.24
.50
2.0039
.0028
1783 -1980
23
FEL
Pila
1543 -1980
28
56
.15
.19
.54
3.0040
.0029
1825 -1964
24
SJM
Pipo
1500 -1980
25
55
.16
.18
.38
3.0076
.0041
1706 -1974
25
DON
Pije
1510 -1980
611
.17
.22
.50
1.0083
.0077
1551 -1861
26
SNO
Pipo
1557 -1980
13
26
.19
.20
.31
3.0055
.0048
1768 -1980
27
DDF
Pije
1441 -1980
16
35
.15
.18
.42
1.0060
.0039
1711 -1935
28
KAI
Juoc
1140 -1981
28
54
.19
.25
.58
5.0059
.0042
1795 -1981
29
BLA
Pipo
1527 -1981
33
67
.15
.20
.53
3.0030
.0032
1700 -1925
30
BUE
Pije
1434 -1981
38
62
.14
.17
.45
3.0050
.0035
1703 -1958
31
KEN
Pije
1607 -1981
29
58
.40
.41
.45
3.0071
.0043
1732 -1976
32
PIU
Pije
1528 -1981
22
48
.22
.28
.58
2.0032
.0033
1764 -1950
& Pipo
33
SOR
Pije
1505 -1981
25
46
.29
.42
3.0046
.0035
1692 -1947
Table 3.
Tree -ring collections from which no chronology was derived
Site
Spec
No of
Altitude
Date
Site name
code
County
State
code
trees
meters
Lat N
Long W
collected
WHEELER POINT
WHE
WHEELER
OR
Juoc
61519 -1522
44
58
119 54
JUL 1983
TAMARACK MTN
TAM
GRANT and
Juoc
19
1134 -1341
44
56
119 41
JUL 1983
WHEELER
OR
WILLIAMS PRAIRIE
WIL
CROOK
OR
Pipo
71451 -1457
44
16
120 14
JUL 1983
YELLOWJACKET LAKE
YEL
HARNEY
OR
Juoc
52
1512 -1536
43
53
119 19
JUL 1983
GLASS BUTTES
GLA
LAKE
OR
Juoc
51433 -1433
43
30
120 07
JUN 1983
HART MTN REFUGE
HAR
LAKE
OR
Juoc
51615 -1639
42
32
119 46
JUN 1983
JACK CREEK SUMMIT
JCS
ELKO
NV
Pial
35
2621 -3109
41
32
115 58
JUN 1985
YOUNGS CORRAL
YOC
LAKE
CA
Pipo
13
1402 -1488
39
16
122 45
JUL 1981
LEWIS MTN
LEW
TUOLUMNE
CA
Pipo
23
1427 -1622
38
01
120 09
SEP 1981
RETCH HETCHY RES
HET
TUOLUMNE
CA
Pije
24
1610 -1741
37
58
119 48
SEP 1981
POOPENAUT PEAK
P00
TUOLUMNE
CA
Pije
32
1524 -1585
37
54
119 50
SEP 1981
Pipo
9
PILOT RIDGE
PIR
TUOLUMNE and
Pipo
17
976 -1585
37
49
120 00
SEP 1981
MARIPOSA
CA
MONO HOT SPRS
MON
FRESNO
CA
Pije
34
2121 -2292
37
21
119 01
JUL 1982
FLORENCE LAKE
FLO
FRESNO
CA
Pije
18
2256 -2341
37
17
118 59
JUL 1982
GRAHAM HILL
GRH
SANTA CRUZ
CA
Pipo
12
256- 268
37
02
122 02
AUG 1982
WISHON RES
WIS
FRESNO
CA
Pije
16
1999 -2219
36
58
118 58
JUL 1982
PATTERSON BLUFFS
PAT
FRESNO
CA
Pije
22
2097 -2292
36
56
119 04
JUL 1982
MINERAL KING
MKR
TULARE
CA
Pipo
13
1829 -1951
36
27
118 42
SEP 1981
KERN RIVER
KER
TULARE
CA
Pipo
10
1609 -1780
36
06
118 29
JUL 1982
DOME ROCK
DOM
TULARE
CA
Pije
17
1975 -2201
36
03
118 32
JUL 1982
GREENHORN MTNS
GRE
KERN
CA
Pipo
23
1426 -1487
35
35
118 39
JUL 1982
SAN GORGONIO
SGE
SAN BERNARDINO
CA
Pifl
168
2743 -3246
34
07
116 54
1971 -79
was used to verify that all changes were correct and thedata set was clean and ready for chronology assembly.
STANDARDIZATION AND CHRONOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
Computer program ARSTAN was used to standardize thering width series and to assemble the chronology. Thisprogram had been developed by Edward R. Cook of Lamont -Doherty Geological Observatory, and it was perfected incooperation between him and Holmes (Cook, 1985 and Appendix2). This program employs advanced time -series and relatedstatistical techniques such as autoregressive modeling andbiweight robust estimation of the mean value function. Wehelped to develop and utilized the option that estimates thegrowth function first by fitting exponential or straightline curves, indexing, and removing any remaining trends byfitting a relatively rigid cubic smoothing spline to theindices and recalculating the indices.
A chronology with many replicated samples has a highersignal -to -noise ratio than one made up of few samples, andthe standard errors of chronology indices are smaller, asillustrated in Figure 2.
Three chronology representations are generated: (1)
"Standard," using the standardized series combined withbiweight robust mean estimation without autoregressivemodeling; (2) "Residual," the residuals from autoregressivemodeling of individual series combined using the biweightrobust mean estimation (these are called white noiseresiduals because they have a nearly uniform amount ofvariance at all frequencies); and (3) "ARSTAN," achronology derived by adding the modeled common persistenceto the residual chronology. All three chronologyrepresentations are included in this report.
Statistics are calculated by Program ARSTAN for theentire length of the chronology, and for a subset of serieswhich span a common time interval (see Appendix 2). Thissubset is computed so as to contain the maximum possiblenumber of rings.
X-RAY DENSITOMETRY
It was intended at the outset of the project to producewood density chronologies by x -ray densitometric analysis.The cores were mounted in a way that allowed for density aswell as ring width analysis. A test site early in theproject was processed using Jeffrey pine cores from LikelyMountain, California, one of our smaller site collections.In addition to ring -width analysis, the data were processeddensitometrically by A. S. McCord to produce series ofannual ring widths and maximum latewood densities. The
14
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igna
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0.0
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se-
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oise
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oise
0.00
14
S/N
Rat
io-
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0.5
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S/N
Rat
io-
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io -
12.
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/N R
atio
- 53
.43
1400
1450
1500
1550
1600
1651
'0
1700
1750
16ó0
YE
RR
S
Figure 2.
The relationship between number of trees and cores, standard error, and
the signal -to -noise ratio for the Hager Basin Juniperus occidentalis chronology.
technology for other types of measurement using our systemhad not been developed at the time of the test. Thechronology of maximum latewood densities is presentedfollowing the ring -width chronology for Likely Mountain.
The x -ray densitometric processing required over tentimes the personnel time expended in optically measuringring width (also see Cleaveland, 1983). In addition, theorientation of the rings in the core sample must be verynearly perpendicular for x -ray analysis. This reduced thenumber of rings that could be analyzed so that the resultingdata set was smaller by 47 percent. Conkey (1982) foundthat in red spruce (Picea rubens) in Maine, wood densityvariation had a stronger common signal than ring widths. Onthe other hand, Cleaveland (1983, p 149) found that forDouglas -fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), ponderosa pine andpinyon pine (Pinus edulis) growing in semiarid parts ofnorthwestern New Mexico aand southwestern Colorado, densitydata are inferior to ring -width measurements forcrossdating.
In the test case (Table 4), the standard deviation, themean sensitivity and the common signal in the density dataproved to be substantially smaller than that of the ringwidth data. The correlation between trees in the density setwas only 71 percent as large as the correlation betweentrees in the ring -width set; the signal -to -noise ratio was51 percent of the ratio for the ring -width set; and thevariance contained in the first eigenvector was 75 percentof that in the ring -width set.
At that time there was a large backlog of cores andsites that had been collected for the project. With thereduced funding level at that time, we concluded that all ofthe quality ring -width data should be processed beforeattempting more density work. There were so many new andexcellent sites collected in subsequent years, that we havenot had the time and resources to return to the more labor -intensive densitometric part of the project. All cores havebeen documented, mounted, and archived in anticipation ofeventual densitometric analysis.
EFFECTS OF UNDISCOVERED ABSENT RINGS
How much would a tree -ring chronology be affected bythe existence of undiscovered locally absent rings, and bythe consequent erroneous dating of the ring sequence? Thefollowing exercise was carried out to illustrate the effect.
Sorrel Peak, a site with a relatively high proportionof absent rings, was selected for this study. There are 144locally absent rings in a data set of 14723 ringmeasurements for this site (.978 percent). It is a Jeffreypine site near the southern end of the Sierra Nevada in
16
Table 4. Selected statistics of chronologies and common intervalanalyses of maximum latewood density and ring width obtained byx -ray densitometry from Likely Mountain, California, Jeffreypine. The chronology spans the interval AD 1699 to 1980 (282years) with 8 trees and 16 radii. The common interval includesall trees and radii, and spans AD 1857 to 1979 (123 years).
Standard chronology
A B
Maximumlatewood Ring Ratiodensity width A/B
Mean sensitivity .087 .227 .38
Standard deviation .099 .273 .36
Autocorrelation order 1 .369 .464
Common interval analysis
Mean correlationsAll radii pairs .421 .589 .71
Only between trees (Y variance) .404 .573 .71
Only within trees .630 .769 .82
Signal -to -noise ratio 5.42 10.72 .51
Agreement with population .844 .915 .92
% variance in eigenvector 1 45.7 60.8 .75
Table 5. Selected statistics of chronologies and common intervalanalyses of crossdated and counted tree -ring measurement sets. The
chronology, derived from the Sorrel Peak Jeffrey pine samples,including 25 trees and 46 radii, and spans the years AD 1505 to 1981(477 years). The common interval spans 256 years from AD 1692 to1947, including 21 trees and 32 radii.
A B Ratio
Standard chronology Crossdated Counted B/A
Mean sensitivity .288 .100 .35
Standard deviation .312 .206 .66
Autocorrelation order 1 .430 .818 1.90
% variance due to autoregression 20.5 69.5 3.39
Common interval analysis
Mean correlations:All radii pairs .584 .278 .48
Only between trees (Y ) .578 .276 .48
Only within trees .788 .355 .45
Signal -to -noise ratio 26.06 7.24 .28
Variance in eigenvector 1 59.5 31.7 .53
17
California, with desirable chronology characteristics (Table5).
This data set was altered by deleting all zero valuesrepresenting the absent rings and moving the assigned yearsforward in time to fill the gaps. These altered data werecalled the "counted" data set as they simulated the resultthat would be expected from counting the rings from the barkto the center without using crossdating techniques.
In checking the crossdating of the two data. sets,Program COFECHA (see Appendix 1) calculates a meanintercorrelation among the crossdated series of .807 withtwo 50 -year segments flagged as possibly having problems,while for the counted series the intercorrelation was .313with 444 segments flagged.
Table 5 includes selected statistics for the two datasets calculated by program ARSTAN (Appendix 2). In thisexample, when the absent rings were deleted, the meansensitivity declined to 35 percent of that for thecrossdated set, the standard deviation declined to 66percent, the first order autocorrelation increased by 90percent and the proportion of variance due to autoregressionincreased 239 percent. The means of the correlationsbetween series declined to 45 and 48 percent. The signal -to -noise ratio declined to 28 percent and the variance ineigenvector 1 declined to 53 percent of that for thecrossdated set.
The mean chronologies for these two data sets aresuperimposed on one another in Figure 3. Values in thecrossdated chronology are emphasized with dots. The plot atthe very top of the graph shows the sample size -- thenumber of samples included for each year -- and the numbercorrectly dated and misdated. Proceeding inward from thebark on each counted sample, dating is in agreement until1972, the date of the outermost absent ring. From thatpoint inward to the center, many of the rings are misdated.The ring for 1972, for example, is absent in 11 out of the27 series, so the ring width for 1971 is erroneously enteredin its place for 11 cores.
Examination of Figure 3 reveals that as the proportionof misdated rings increases, the high- frequency varianceappears to diminish. In particular, the years of very highor low growth do not show up as such. Going back throughtime, most series accumulate more than one undiscoveredabsent ring, and the series become misplaced by severalyears. As more series exhibit this trait, the low- frequencyvariance becomes gradually more prominent and displacedforward in time. Note for instance the displacement of low -frequency waves around 1755, 1710, 1670, 1650 and 1555 to1568.
18
40-
W J L ÿ20 2.0
,../
SAMPLE DEPTH
DRIED
MISORTED
II
'I
1.5-
ó 1.
0z
-40
-20
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s
0.5 -
0.0
1510
1520
1530
1540
1550
1560
1570
1580
40 2.0
1600
1610
1620
1630
1640
1650
1660
1670
1680
1690
1700
1710
1720
1730
1740
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S
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\SAMPLE DEPTH
-40
-20
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-
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
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1830
1840
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1860
1870
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S
2.0
1.5
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1960
1970
1913
0
1.0
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-0.
0
Figure 3.
Plot of crossdated and counted chronologies from Jeffrey pine at Sorrel
Peak, California.
Values in the crossdated chronology are emphasized with dots.
Sample size is shown above, indicating the number of dated and misdated rings for
each year.
This exercise suggests that if crossdating is not wellperformed, due to undiscovered absent rings or otherreasons, the variability of the series is reduced, with agreater percent of variance at low frequencies and adisplacement forward in time. As indicated in the commoninterval analysis, the common signal is reduced by lowermean correlations among series, lower signal -to -noise ratioand a smaller proportion of variance expressed by the firsteigenvector.
EVALUATING STANDARDIZATION PROCEDURES
Before any chronologies were developed on this project,we selected a dated and measured Jeffrey pine collectionfrom Baja California on which we could experiment withdifferent standardization techniques. The chronology hadbeen developed for the site and is published. Themeasurement series from the site were divided into twogroups: seven trees (fourteen radii) where the negativeexponential curve could be fit ( "expo" series), and sixtrees (twelve radii) where it could not be fit. Aregression line had been fit to these trees to develop theoriginal chronology. These were called the "regression"series. Two trees were rejected for this analysis becausetheir radii were dissimilar.
Analyses of variance and power spectra were run onchronologies composed of all thirteen trees, of the seven"expo" series and of the six "regression" series. Thechronologies were generated from series standardized byseveral methods: negative exponential curve (for exposeries), regression line (for regression series), polynomial(regression series) and cubic smoothing splines of differentstiffness. Power spectra revealed that a large proportionof the variance in chronologies was contained in the verylow frequencies ( >= 100 years), producing a "spike" on thespectrum plots for the chronologies where the negativeexponential, regression line or very stiff spline had beenused. This "spike" was less pronounced when the data werestandardized with a polynomial function or flexible splineswith 50% frequency response over time periods of 150 yearsor less.
It was suggested by Cook that the cubic spline mightenhance the error in the most recent part of a chronologywhich' will be referred to as an "end effect ". Thishypothesis was tested by using various standardizationmethods and calculating the mean of the 10 standarddeviations of the residuals for the latest decade of thechronology. A large standard deviation would indicate alarge spread in core indices and possible "end effect" ofthe standardization curve. It was found that the standarddeviation was smallest for flexible splines and those of
20
medium stiffness, and largest for the regression line, thevery stiff splines and the negative exponential curve. Weconcluded that the spline has no appreciable end effect.However, we were hesitant to use flexible splines as theywould remove low -frequency variation. We began examining andcomparing various standardizing techniques for use in theproject.
In October, 1983, Cook provided computer Program ARSTANto the Laboratory. At that time, Cook was concerned that anartificial frequency distribution might be induced by usingsplines of the same stiffness for initial detrending of thering -width series. For this reason and in order to leavemore low frequency variance in the longer series, Cook andHolmes decided to express spline stiffness as a percent ofseries length rather than by a fixed stiffness. Accordingto Cook, this artificiality was later shown to be extremelysmall, if it exists at all. Expressing the spline stiffnessas a percent of the series length was neverthelessconsidered to be an improvement.
Power spectra were then run on chronologies whosecomponent radii were detrended by using splines of stiffnessexpressed as various percentages from 16% through 200% ofthe series length. As expected, the stiffer splines ( > 60 %)produced a low -frequency spike, very flexible splines( < 30 %) had spectra with little very low- frequency variance,and the splines between 30% and 50% had moderate amounts oflow - frequency variance. There was a marked change in thelow -frequency peak for splines with stiffness from 50% to60 %.
In order to see what was occurring when a particularcurve was fit to a measurement series, the curve was plottedsuperimposed on the data series (Figure 4). One conclusionfrom examining these plots was that a negative exponentialcurve usually fits well over the early third or so of thedata where tree growth is declining steeply, but then oftenrides along for many consecutive decades above or below thelocal mean in the relatively flat later two -thirds or so ofthe data. A stiff spline, on the other hand, follows wellthe local mean of the middle and later part of the series,but cannot bend sharply enough to fit the steep early partof the ring -width data. We wondered if this problem withthe trend fitting could be resolved by applying both curvesto the data without removing too much of the information atlow frequencies.
A procedure we called the "double detrending" (two -stage curve fitting and standardization) procedure wasdeveloped and tested. First, a negative exponential curveis fit to the ring -width series using least squaresprocedures and the usual index value is calculated. Thisproduces a more or less stationary time series with ahomogeneous variance, but the conversion to indices
21
2.4
Z.Z 2.0-
I
1.6
1-6
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1 .4 1.2-
1.0
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1500
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4
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IT
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1850
1900
1950
Figure 4.
Two detrending curves fit to a tree -ring measurement series.
The light
smooth line is a negative exponential curve; the heavy line is a cubic smoothing
spline of stiffness equal to the series length, 512 years.
Note that the exponential
curve fits well the early third of the series, but is almost entirely below the series
from 1590 to 1750, and above the series from there to 1950.
The spline, on the other
hand, fits well the later two - thirds of the series, but cannot bend sharply enough to
accommodate the steep decline from 1460 to 1590.
introduces some trend which is magnified near the end wherethe fitted growth curve reached its lowest value. Second, astiff cubic spline (with 50% of the variance removed forperiods equal to the length, n, of each series) is fit andthe index is divided by its value to correct for trends thathad not been removed or that had been introduced by fittingthe negative exponential curve. This is different from thespline in Figure 4 as that was fit directly to the ring -width data and not the indices calculated from theexponential curve.
This method proved effective in reducing the pronouncedlow- frequency spectral spike on series to which a negativeexponential curve could be fit, but the spline seemed toostiff for series where no exponential curve could be fitted.To these series the second stage of detrending wasaccomplished first with a spline with stiffness of 50% theseries length. Holmes wrote the double detrendingcapability into program ARSTAN. Later consultation betweenCook and Holmes, along with accumulated experience,indicated that a somewhat stiffer spline would be desirable,and it was agreed that two -thirds of the series length was adesirable stiffness for series where a negative exponentialcould not be fit first. Following these detrendingoperations, ARSTAN calculates and removes any linear trendbefore it begins time -series modeling. The indices are thenaveraged to produce what is called the "STANDARD"chronology, e.g. one that resembles the usual chronologyproduced by INDEX.
Plots of power spectra and of series with detrendingcurves superimposed, along with printout from runs ofProgram ARSTAN using double detrending, were sent to Cook.After he had a chance to examine the plots and perform someanalyses, he concurred in the importance of removing thegrowth function as precisely as possible before furtherdetrending and time -series analysis.
It was reasoned that if "double detrending" improvesstandardization, the standard deviation of the core indicesthat are averaged to obtain the yearly mean chronology indexwill be smaller on average than if it is done with singledetrending. Runs were made of Programs INDEX /SUMAC andARSTAN on a number of ring -width data sets. Table 6shows some of the statistical effects of different optionsranging from using only INDEX /SUMAC to using many of theoptions offered by ARSTAN. There was a very small increasein mean sensitivity from option 1 through 8 and a very smalldecrease in the standard deviation. The autoregressivemodeling and biweight mean appear to reduce the first orderautocorrelation to some extent. The mean of correlationcoefficients between the different radii increases fromoption 1 through 8. The mean correlation between trees isan estimate of the percent signal in the individual treeradii (Wigley et al., 1982). Thus the signal estimate
23
Table 6: Effects of various standardization options on selected chronology statistics.
Data are for Juniperus
occidentalis from Calamity Creek, Oregon for 10 selected trees, 2
cores per tree, chosen for negative exponental
growth trend.
The chronology covers the interval AD 1403 to 1982; the common interval AD 1772to 1982.
Program
Options
used
Chronology
Mean sensitivity
Standard deviation
Autocorr. order 1
Common interval
Mean correlations:
All radii pairs
Only between trees
Only within trees
1
INDEX /SUMAC
2
ARSTAN
3
ARSTAN
4
ARSTAN
5
ARSTAN
6
ARSTAN
Expo curve
Expo curve Expo curve Expo curve Expo curve
Double
*Biweight
Linear
Linear
detrending
mean
detrending detrending
Linear
Biweight
detrending
mean
.289
.305
.273
.396
.378
.707
.289
.305
.273
.407
.383
.732
.288
.299
.255
.407
.383
.732
.289
.308
.275
.410
.386
.734
.290
.302
.257
.410
.386
.734
.289
.304
.268
.430
.407
.750
7
ARSTAN
8
ARSTAN
Double
Double
detrending
detrending
Linear
Linear
detrending
detrending
Biweight
Biweight
mean
mean
AR- modeling
(full ARSTAN
process)
.290
.300
.251
.431
.407
.749
.294
.293
.175
.520
.498
.807
* Note:
Inter -series correlations are the same for the program runs in columns 1 and 2.
Mean correlations in SUMAC are arithmetic means; in ARSTAN they are computed
using a Fisher Z- transform appropriate for deriving the mean of bounded values
such as correlations.
increases from 37.8% of the variance for INDEX /SUMAC to49.8% for 8, the full ARSTAN analysis. A 2% rise in signalcan be attributed to the double detrending and a 9% rise insignal can be attributed to autoregressive modeling.
The data in tables 7 and 8 document the statistics ofchronologies treated with the curve fitting of INDEX orARSTAN and then combined using the arithmetic and biweightmeans along with the autoregressive modeling of ARSTAN. Themean sensitivity, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis andautocorrelation show only small differences. The error wasgenerally but not always lower in the Residual version. Forexample, the ratio of error variances of the Residual/Standard for all but the INDEX analysis in Table 8 weresmaller than one.
The mean correlations are higher for the ARSTAN thanthe INDEX computations. The between -tree correlationsreflect the common signal which is often two to threepercentage points higher for the ARSTAN than for the INDEXanalysis. The percent variance explained by the firsteigenvector is generally higher for the ARSTAN chronology.
Figure 5 shows four power spectra for two differentsite chronologies. The chronologies for 2A and 2C weretreated like program INDEX /SUMAC and those for 2B and 2Dwere treated with all of the ARSTAN options. The spectrabetween sites are markedly different but there are fewdifferences between the two standardization treatments. in
the juniper chronology, the peak frequency at 3/100 issomewhat smaller for the ARSTAN version.
It was concluded from these data that the ARSTANprogram was as good as if not superior to the INDEX /SUMACversion. The Standard version is similar to the INDEX /SUMACversion. However, the ARSTAN program has the addedadvantage of producing a Residual version of the chronologyas well as the ARSTAN version, which adds the meanautoregressive structure back into the residual chronology.Therefore, the ARSTAN program was used to produce all of theproject chronologies.
25
Table 7: Chronology statistics after curve fitting with INDEX orARSTAN, using ARSTAN to compute arithmetic or biweight robustmeans, and then processing the chronology using the autoregressivemodeling of ARSTAN. Data are
Calamity Creek, Oregon. Theto 1982 with 29 trees and 49
AD 1774 to 1981 with 27 trees
for Juniperus occidentalis fromchronology covers the interval AD 1396radii, and the common interval covers
and 44 radii.
Expo or Poly Double Detrended
Curve fitting option used: (With INDEX) (With ARSTAN)
Type of mean used: Arith Biwt Arith Biwt
Chronology
Mean sensitivity .272 .272 .272 .273
Std deviation .281 .278 .281 .278
Skewness .503 .471 .529 .482
Kurtosis 3.574 3.567 3.701 3.667
Autocorrelation order 1 .240 .233 .235 .232
Error variance Standard .00631 .00602 .00625 .00586
Error variance Residual .00504 .00516 .00495 .00514Ratio error var Resid /Std .799 .857 .791 .876
Common interval
StandardMean correlation
All radii pairs .419 * .442 *
Only between trees (Y) .412 .434
Only within trees .715 .739
Signal -to -noise ratio 18.9 20.7% variance eigenv 1 43.1 45.3
ResidualMean correlationAll radii pairs .526 .533
Only between trees (Y) .519 .526
Only within trees .784 .792Signal -to -noise ratio 29.1 30.0
% variance eigenv 1 53.3 54.1
* Note: Common interval analysis is identical forarithmetic and biwight robust means.
26
Table 8: Chronology statistics after curve fitting with INDEX orARSTAN, using ARSTAN to compute arithmetic or biweight robustmeans, and then processing the chronology using the autoregressivemodeling of ARSTAN. Data
Lake, California. The chronology1980 with 28 trees and 581727 to 1980 with 24 trees
are for Pinus jeffreyi from AntelopeAD 1473 to
covers AD
Double Detrended
covers the intervalradii, and the common intervaland 39 radii.
Expo or Poly
Curve fitting option used: (with INDEX) (with ARSTAN)
Type of mean used: Arith Biwt Arith Biwt
Chronology
Meansensitivity .149 .150 .150 .151
Stddeviation .202 .202 .204 .205
Skewness -.226 -.250 -.170 -.168
Kurtosis 3.595 3.780 3.681 3.898
Autocorrelation order 1 .606 .608 .605 .608
Error variance Standard .00427 .00355 .00451 .00391
Error variance Residual .00435 .00379 .00438 .00377
Ratio error var Resid /Std 1.021 1.068 .972 .966
Common interval
StandardMean correlation
All radii pairs .315 * .351 *
Only between trees (Y) .306 .343Only within trees .617 .607
Signal -to -noise ratio 10.6 12.5
% variance eigenv 1 33.2 36.8
ResidualMean correlation
All radii pairs .302 .310
Only between trees (Y) .297 .305
Only within trees .506 .508
Signal -to -noise ratio 10.1 10.5
% variance eigenv 1 32.1 32.9
* Note: Common interval analysis is identical forarithmetic and biweight robust means.
27
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
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0.0
00
n.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
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00
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9
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,,,1,
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0OS
0.10
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0.0
a 0.00
1,,1
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,,,,1
i, ,,,
,11
,,,, 1
1,
,,,,,,1,
0.05
0.10
0.15
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0.0
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0.40
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FREQUENCY CYCLE/YERR
00.50
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0. 0
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
0.50
FREQUENCY CYCLE/YERR
Figure 5.
Power spectra showing the distribution of variance by frequency for two sites, with chronologies A and
C produced by the INDEX /SUMAC method and B and D by the ARSTAN method.
All spectra were produced with 100 lags.
Spectra A and B are for Calamity Creek, Oregon, for the interval AD 1493 to 1982; C and Dare for Antelope Lake,
California, AD 1511 to 1980.
DETAILS OF DOCUMENTATION
The relevant details of procedures used in this projectare described in these pages. A brief discussion of samplelabeling, dating notation and identification codes forlabeling tree -ring data sets follow the guidelines of theLaboratory of Tree -Ring Research. The site information,sample mounting and specimen preparation sections generallyare methods unique to this project.
SITE INFORMATION
A permanent record containing all informationpertaining to the tree -ring collections is kept in threemanila folders labeled by site name for each site.
The first folder, labeled "Site collection," containsthe field notes made during sample collection, and a large -scale map showing the location of site collections.
The second folder, labeled "Dating and measurement,"contains notes on crossdating the specimens, skeleton plots(if any) and any additional notes on the samples themselves.Printout from computer program COFECHA is included in thisfolder.
The third folder, labeled "Chronology and analysis,"holds information on the assembly of chronologies for thesite, and analyses performed on the chronologies. Printoutsuch as that from computer program ARSTAN is included inthis folder.
SAMPLE LABELING AND DATING NOTATION
Mounted cores are labeled with a six or eight- charactercode for site, tree number and radius; the date (month andyear) of collection; and species code. Conventionally coresare labeled with the bark to the right. Labels are writtenon the corner of the core mount to allow a maximum of clearspace adjacent to the core for notations to be made laterpertaining to the dating and measurement of the core.
When working with the specimens, it is important todistinguish between cores or portions of cores that havebeen dated with a high degree of confidence and those thatare only tentatively dated or merely sequenced (counted).Pencil marks only are used for tentative dating orsequencing, and the note "tent dtd..." followed by theinterval so dated, initials and date. If dating is of highconfidence, the dating marks are pinpricked, preferablyalong one edge of the core, and annotated "dtd..." followedby the dated interval, initials and date. The symbol "0" isused to denote a pith date. For example, the note
29
DTD 0 1323-1984 RKA 10/85
would be read, "Dated from pith at year 1323 through 1984 byRKA in October 1985."
Details are recorded on the core mount, written smalland as close as possible to the pertinent ring, such asfrost -damaged rings, reaction wood, injuries and informationuseful for documenting decisions on dating or forcommunicating this information to the person who willmeasure the core (Figure 6). Among the symbols used are:
(ab)
(w)
(m)
(f)
locally absent ringwedge ringmicroringfaint ring
As with the dating, the dates of the interval measured,initials of the measurer and date of measurement were notedon the mount. Often a few rings near the pith were excludedfrom measurement because of the uncertain climatic responseof a very small tree. If a core was taken during thegrowing season of the tree, the outside ring, which wouldnot be complete, was not measured.
IDENTIFICATION CODES FOR TREE -RING SERIES
Ring measurement series
In April 1984 the series identification code at theLaboratory of Tree -Ring Research was expanded from six toeight alphanumeric characters to accommodate the greatervariety of data now being generated. It includes from leftto right:
Characters 1 to 3 Three -letter site abbreviation4 to 5 Two -digit tree number
6 One -letter designation of the treeradius
7 to 8 Two -letter data -type code(two blanks here indicate ringwidth.)
The identification is entered in the site collectionnotes, written on the core sample mount or on the bulksample, entered on the computerized measurement file andsubsequently appears on any computer -generated printoutwhich makes use of the data series.
Index series
Standardization of a series of ring measurements alongone core produces a ring index series (Appendix 2) which is
30
One ring
Earlywood Latewood
Decade
1810
Double Microring ring(d) (m)
Absent
ring(ab)
Decade(10 rings)
1a
1950 1960 1970 1980
Bark toward the right -1
Half- century
Wedge Faintring ring(w) (f)
(ab)
then(m)*
Century
1900
m)
then(ab)*
1850J 11,1
Measureas zero
Annotate this example as:1854d, 62m, 73m, 76ab, 89w, 98f1907ab, 08m, 24m, 25ab
WAINMeasure perpendicular tothe latewood boundary
1900
* Consult dating notes
Place dating marks along edges of core,leaving center clear for better visibilityand for x -ray densitometric processing.v
Crack measure wood onlynot the space
Figure 6. Dating and measurement conventions.
31
identified by the first six characters of the identificationcode. Special conventions are followed in assigning codesto summaries of two or more index series. A zero in theradius designation (sixth character) indicates that thisindex series is a summary of several radii within one tree,or a special summary for statistical analysis. A nine inthe sixth character indicates a site chronology.
Chronology series
A chronology for a site is developed by combiningindexed series from many cores sampled from different treesgrowing on the site. This chronology is identified by athree- letter site abbreviation, an assigned two -characterspecies code and a number indicating the type of chronology(9 for a climatic chronology, 0 for a statisticalchronology, for example) .
A four -letter code is also used which more or lessmatches the first two letters of the genus and species name,except when two genera or species begin with the sameletters. When this occurs one is changed to avoidconfusion. For example for the genus Picea, "PC" is usedrather than "PI" to avoid confusion with the genus Pinus,and for Pinus monticola, "PIMT" is used rather than "PIMO"to avoid confusion with Pinus monophylla.
Summary of identification codes
The 8 digit code used to identify tree -ring series oncomputer inputs and outputs is indicated as A for alphanumeric, # for numeric and 0 for a zero value.
AAA # #0
AAA002
Site codeTree numberRadius number when more than one radius
per tree is sampledType of data (Two blanks here indicate
ring widthSummary of ring -width data for all cores
from tree ## on site AAASummary of all core class 2s from site AAA
DETAILS OF SAMPLE MOUNTING AND PREPARATION
Preparation of increment core samples is an exactingtask that must be done carefully to provide the bestpossible surface for ring measurement. A method of coremounting was developed on this project that facilitates bothoptical measurements and X -ray densitometry measurementwithout remounting. The steps required for preparation aredescribed here.
32
Groove - 4.5 as wide
- 2.5 as deep
core to press -fit
5 sa
14_- 20 or 25 as -pi
Site, tree, core and
species identification
Figure 7.
Increment core mount for optical and x -ray densitometric processing.
MANUFACTURING CORE MOUNTS
Poplar wood was selected for core mounts because it iseconomical, widely available, clear -grained and the mostmachinable wood in common use. Boards were prefinished to astandard core mount width depending on requirements for X-ray densitometry. At first a width of 25 mm was used toaccommodate a router- planer with a one -inch feed opening.Due to recent changes in technology of x -ray densitometry,core mounts are now manufactured with a 20 mm width.
Boards were then cut into lath that were 20 or 25 mmwide and about 5 mm thick, somewhat thicker than the corediameter which generally is 4.3 to 4.5 mm. The laths werecut into lengths to accommodate the cores, with 40 mm extraon each end.
A groove was cut with a router bit along the center ofone face of the lath. The groove was made just wide enoughfor the cores to fit with gentle pressure by using a 3/16inch (4.76 mm) router bit. Depth of the groove was justover half the core diameter. The groove did not extend tothe ends of the mount, but stopped about 30 to 40 mm fromeach end (Figure 7).
MOUNTING CORES
A mount was selected with a groove of adequate lengthto accept the core, and the core identification was recordednear one end of the mount. Some cores were twisted at thetime of collection by the action of the increment borerentering the tree. These cores were straightened by gentlytwisting them in the opposite direction while exposed to ajet of steam until the wood grain was parallel throughoutits length. Removal of the core from the steam whileholding the proper orientation allowed the wood to hardenwithout distortion while cooling. A steaming teakettle orEhrlenmeyer flask with stopper and bent tube was used forthis process.
The groove in the mount was filled with polyvinylacetate emulsion glue ( "white glue "), and the core waspressed in with the grain of the core precisely vertical sothat the final polished surface would be a cross -section.Excess glue was wiped off with a damp cloth or sponge. Theglue will not influence wood density measurements since itwill be completely cut off from above and below the coreduring preparation for x -ray densitometry.
Mounted cores were clamped immediately while the gluehardened. A padded table as shown in Figure 8, allowedseveral mounts to be clamped at once. Additional weights wereplaced on top to make the clamping firmer. After a few hours theglue was hard and the mounted cores were removed to air -dry,making room for more freshly mounted cores.
34
Handle
Covered with polyethylenesheeting not shown)
--- Desk top
Firs foam pads,12 mm (1/2 in)
/-----Nounted coresTable
Tape Desk top
1
Front
Firm foam pad Polyethylene sheeting
Mounted core
Not hinged orconnected
View from front,press closed
Figure 8. Table press for clamping mounted cores while gluehardens.
35
SURFACE PREPARATION FOR OPTICAL MEASUREMENT
After the glue hardened, cores were surfaced lightly,one at a time, by using a board and wedge inserted into asanding belt. A few strokes with a medium coarse belt(about 220 grit) produced a flat surface, which was thenpolished with a fine grit belt (about 320 to 400). Finalpolishing was accomplished by hand with a small piece (about80 by 100 mm) of fine (360 to 500 grit) sandpaper backed bya 25 mm by 50 mm by 8 mm rubber eraser. Tan coloredaluminum oxide sandpaper was strongly preferred overblack silicon carbide, because the latter may leave blackspecks which severely interfere with the visibility ofdifficult ring series. Sanding down to a level flush withthe core mount makes polishing difficult, and glue maybecome smeared across the surface obscuring the cellstructure. Sanding should stop about 1 mm above the surfaceof the mount.
A clean polished surface can be obtained permitting aclear view of the cell structure of each ring. Preliminarydating marks were made lightly in pencil along one edge ofthe core. After the dating was verified, permanent markswere made along the edge with a sharp pencil or dissectingneedle.
SOURCES OF DATA AND COMPUTER PROGRAMS
All tree -ring chronologies listed in Appendix 3 as wellas the basic ring -width measurements have been contributedto and are available through the International Tree -RingData Bank (ITRDB), Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research,University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, U.S.A.Computer programs COFECHA (Appendix 1) and ARSTAN (Appendix2), and a variety of other programs for tree -ring dataanalysis, are available from the Data Processing Section ofthe Laboratory of Tree Ring Research.
36
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Many people and institutions have assisted this projectin a variety of ways. Maurice Roos, Chief of the FloodHydrology Division, California Department of WaterResources, Sacramento, and William Mancebo, Fresno office ofthe Department of Water Resources, provided personnel and avehicle for some of the field work. Stein Buer, Larry Bakerand Kenneth Lloyd of the same department provided valuablefield assistance. Lester O. White of the Mendocino NationalForest (retired) provided dated ring -width measurements fora sugar pine site and also assisted in the collection in theMendocino National Forest. Robert W. Tosh of the Universityof LaVerne, Mentone, California, donated samples from highaltitude limber pine in the San Gorgonio Peaks of California.
Others who gave assistance in field work includeWallace Woolfenden of the Stanislaus National Forest, ThomasStohlgren and Thomas Warner of Sequoia -Kings Canyon NationalPark, Jason M. Greenlee of Santa Cruz, California and GlenSecrist of the Boise (Idaho) District, Bureau of LandManagement. Without exception the superintendents, rangersand other personnel of the U. S. Forest Service, ParkService and Bureau of Land Management were very helpful andprovided valuable information on location and access tostands of trees of potential interest.
Wu Xiangding, visiting scholar from Beijing, PeoplesRepublic of China, joined us for a full month of field work.Martin R. Rose, Christopher J. Earle, Thomas P. Harlan andAlexander S. McCord, personnel of the Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research, also participated in the collection work.Thanks are given to Jacqueline Mather and Barbara Malloy fortranscription and review of the text.
This material is based upon work supported by theNational Science Foundation under grants ATM- 8026732 andATM-8303192. Any opinions, findings and conclusions orrecommendations expressed in this publication are those ofthe authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of theNational Science Foundation.
37
LITERATURE CITED
Antevs, Ernst
1938 Rainfall and tree growth in the Great Basin.American Geographical Soc éty of New York, 97 pp.
Biasing, T. J., D. N. Duvick and E. R. Cook.
1983. Filtering the effects of competition from ring -with series. Tree -Ring Bulletin 43:19 -30.
Cleaveland, Malcolm K.
1983 X -ray densitometric measurement of climaticinfluence on the intra- annual characteristics ofsouthwestern semiarid conifer tree rings. Ph.D.Dissertation, Department of Geosciences, Univer-sity of Arizona, Tucson, 177 pp.
Conkey, Laura E.
1982 Eastern U.S. tree -ring widths and densities asindicators of past climate. Ph.D. Dissertation,Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona,Tucson, 204 pp.
Cook, Edward R.
1985 A time - series analysis approach to tree -ringstandardization. Ph.D. Dissertation, Departmentof Geosciences, University of Arizona,Tucson.
Cook, Edward R. and Kenneth Peters
1981 The smoothing spline: a new approach to standard-izing forest interior tree -ring width series fordendroclimatic studies. Tree -Ring Bulletin 41:45 -53.
Earle, Christopher J. and Harold C. Fritts
1986 Reconstructing riverflow in the Sacramento Basinsince 1560. Final Report to the CaliforniaDepartment of Water Resources, Agreement No.DWRB- 55395, 122 pp.
Fritts, Harold C.
1963 Computer programs for tree -ring research. Tree -
Ring Bulletin 25(3- 4):2 -7.
38
Fritts, Harold C.
1976 Tree rings and climate. Academic Press, London,567 pp.
Fritts, Harold C., T. J. Blasing, B. P. Hayden and J. E.Kutzbach
1971. Multivariate techniques for specifying tree -growthand climate relationships and for reconstructinganomalies in paleoclimate. Journal of AppliedMeteorology 10(5):845 -64.
Fritts, Harold C., G. R. Lofgren and G. A. Gordon
1979 Reconstructing seasonal to centenary variations inclimate from tree -ring evidence. In InternationalConference on Climate and History, 8 -14 July, 1979,Review Papers, p 29 -58. Climatic Research Unit,University of East Anglia, Norwich, U. K.
Graybill, Donald A.
1982 Chronology development and analysis. In Climatefrom Tree Rings, M. K. Hughes, P. M. Kelly, J. R.P- filcher and V. C. LaMarche, Jr., eds., p 21 -30.Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Hecht, A. D., ed.
1985. Paleoclimate Analysis and Modelling, John Wileyand Sons, New York.
Holmes, Richard L.
1983 Computer- assisted quality control in tree -ringdating and measurement. Tree -Ring Bulletin 43:69 -78.
Hughes, M. K., P. M. Kelly, J. R. Pilcher and V. C.LaMarche, Jr.
1980 Report and recommendations of the Second Inter-national Workshop on Global Dendrocl mátology. TheOrganising Committee of the Second InternationalWorkshop on Global Dendroclimatology, Belfast.
Keen, F. P.
1937 Climatic cycles in eastern Oregon as indicated bytree rings. Monthly Weather Review 65(5):175 -188.
39
Parker, M. L.
1967 Dendrochronology of Point of Pines. MastersThesis, Department of Anthropology, University ofArizona, Tucson, p 91 -100.
Parker, M. L.
1971 Dendrochronological techniques used by the Geo-logical Survey of Canada. Geological Survey ofCanada Paper 71 -25, p 26, Department of Energy,Mines and Resources, Ottawa.
Robinson, William J. and R. Evans
1980 A Microcomputer -Based Tree -Ring Measuring System.Tree -Ring Bulletin 40:59 -63.
Stockton, C. W. and D. M. Meko
1983 Drought recurrence in the Great Plains as recon-structed from long -term tree -ring records.Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 22:17 -29.
Stokes, Marvin A. and Terah L. Smiley
1968 An introduction to tree -ring dating. The Univer-sity of Chicago Press, Chicago, 73 pp.
Wigley, T.M.L., K. R. Briffa and P. D. Jones
1984 On the average value of correlated times series,with applications in dendroclimatology and hydro -meteorology. Journal of Climate and AppliedMeteorology 23(2):201 -13.
40
APPENDIX 1
QUALITY CONTROL OF CROSSDATING AND MEASURING
A USERS MANUAL FOR PROGRAM COFECHA
Richard L. HolmesLaboratory of Tree -Ring Research
University of ArizonaTucson, Arizona 85721
Introduction
Program COFECHA is a computer routine written in ANSIStandard Fortran -77. The main purpose of Program COFECHA isthe identification of tree -ring data that may have possibledating errors (Holmes 1983).
Before the program can identify these errors, it musttransform the tree -ring series in the following ways.First, the dated and measured ring series are filtered byfitting a 20 -year cubic spline (Cook and Peters 1981), andthen dividing the series values by the corresponding splinecurve values to remove low- frequency variance. Second, thehigh- frequency residual is subjected to a log transformationto equalize proportionally the variability among small andlarge rings. Third, a master dating series is derived bycalculating the mean value function of all filtered andtransformed series.
Individual filtered and transformed series are thentested against the master dating series. The master seriesis adjusted each time by temporarily removing the componentcontributed by the series under consideration. Correlationsare then computed between short segments of the series (50years is the default value) and corresponding segments ofthe adjusted master series. For each segment, the programchecks that the correlation is positive and highlysignificant, and also that it is higher when matched asdated than when shifted forward or backward from that point.Single measurements are noted that have zero values (locallyabsent rings) or which are statistical outliers afterfiltering and transformation.
The correlation among correctly crossdated seriesvaries with the species of trees from which they werederived, geographic area, type of site, amount of standcompetition and degree of disturbance to the site. Throughtime, a given tree may suffer differing amounts of stressfrom competition for light and moisture with other trees,competition for moisture with ground cover, root access tosoil moisture, and from disturbance such as fire and insectattack (Fritts 1976, pp. 107 -113, 213 -223, 300 -311). Forthese reasons, Program COFECHA does not provide precise
41
accept /reject criteria for making objective decisions as towhether a series has been crossdated correctly throughout.Because the appearance of tree -rings contains manyclues to crossdating in addition to ring width, the programshould not be used as a substitute for visual crossdating onthe wood sample. Rather it is intended to aid data qualitycontrol by conducting a thorough examination of all seriesfrom the first to the last value (excepting the end of thatseries which extends beyond all others), giving thedendrochronologist an independent tool to confirm theaccuracy of dating and measurement. It may be used toaccept or reject series or portions of series for inclusionin a site chronology.
Program COFECHA has proven economical and very easy torun, has saved a great deal of personnel time and provides amore reliable quality control check than was previouslyfeasible. Program COFECHA has been implemented at severalinstitutions in addition to the Laboratory of Tree -RingResearch at the University of Arizona. It has been found tobe valuable in working with Cedrela and Juglans, tropicalhardwood genera from northwestern Argentiná Fitzroya andNothofagus (Southern Hemisphere beech) from subantarcticforests in Patagonia; and Taxodium (cypress) fromsoutheastern United States, as well as the species andregion of chronology development of this project. Tests ontree -ring data from arid sites in the southwestern UnitedStates have also yielded excellent results. The programwill likely be useful in other locales such as uppertreeline sites, high latitudes and moist forests. It may beespecially helpful to an investigator working alone or in asmall group, or with unfamiliar species.
Running Program COFECHA
The program reads tree -ring measurement data from twofiles, designated ' TAPE1' and ' TAPE2', written in standardtree -ring measurement (or optionally, index) format.
TAPE 1 contains the dated measurements from a site.These series are used to form the master series againstwhich each individual series is compared. Most of theseries in this file should be correctly dated so that themaster series computed by Program COFECHA will reflectrelatively accurate crossdating. TAPE 2 contains ring -measurement series that are undated (counted), or whosedating is unknown or doubtful. These will not be used tocompute the master series, but will be compared with it tosee where they match best. If there are no problematicalseries, this file is omitted.
On the University of Arizona CYBER 175, the main program andall required subroutines are contained in program library RLHLIB,ID = RLH. On tapes provided for users at other institutions, the
42
main program and all subroutines are written on a single file.Following is a sample of job control lines for running
Program COFECHA on the University of Arizona CYBER 175computer.
JOBNAME,BNPW, - --.
ATTACH,TAPE1,Dated series,ID = - --.ATTACH,TAPE2,Counted series,ID = - - -.ATTACH,RLHLIB,ID =RLH.LIBRARY,RLHLIB.COFECH.
Control -ZTITLE OF PROGRAM RUN
,T100,CM200K,ST76,PO.
(Optional)
(End of record mark)(Optional; must bepresent if defaultvalues are to bechanged)
To override any of the following default values, thekeyword is written starting in column 1 and is followed byan equals sign (=) or by one or more spaces. They mayappear in any order. None of these input lines are requiredby the program.
Keyword Default Parameter
SPLINE 20SEGMENT 50LAG 25ACCEPT .3281
TRANSFORM 1
PLOTALL 0
INDEX1
INDEX2
(Stiffness of the spline filter)(Length of segments tested)(Lag between successive segments)(Correlation confidence level for flag-ging segments)
(Apply a log -transform to filteredseries:Yes = 1, No = -1)
(Make bar plot for all series: No = 0,Yes = 1)
(If this line is omitted, TAPE1 ismeasurement format; if present, TAPE1is index format.)
(If this line is omitted, TAPE2 ismeasurement format; if present, TAPE2is index format.)
Files produced by Program COFECHA
OUTPUT: All results are written on this file forprinting.
MASTER: This file contains the normalized masterdating series in Tree -Ring Laboratory index format. Savethis file if desired for plotting or other use.
43
Data formats
Subroutine TRIR is used to read or write in index ormeasurement format, and may be used to put any data fileinto standard format. This subroutine has additional entrypoints TRMR, TRIW and TRMW, meaning Tree -RingIndices /Measurements Read /Write.
Ring measurement format
Read: (A8,I4,10F6.2)Write: (A8,I4,10I6) Uses 72 columns
A8: Series identification, up to 8 characters alphanumeric.
I4: Date of first measurement in decade. First line maystart in any year and finishes the decade out to theyear ending in 9. Subsequent lines begin on decadeyears ending in 0.
10 F6.2 Ring measurements. First line for a series maycontain less than ten values, in which case they arein the leftmost fields. Subsequent lines contain tenvalues. Last line has a flag value of 999 in the fieldfollowing the last measurement value. If the last valueis for a year ending in 9, an additional line is neededto contain a 999 in the first field.
Ring measurement format permits six significant digits,or five if there may be negative values (space is needed fora minus sign).
Ring index format (Also called Chronology format)
Read: (A 6, I 4,10 (F 4.3, 13) )
Write: (A6,I4,10(I4,13)) Uses 80 columns
A6: Series identification, up to 6 characters alphanumeric.
I4: Date of first index value in decade.
10(F4.3,13): Indices and number of samples. First line foran index series may contain less than ten values, inwhich case the first (left -most) fields are filled with'9990' for the index and ' 0' for the number of samples.Subsequent lines contain ten pairs of values. Unusedfields in the last line of a series are also filled with'9990' and ' 0'. If the last value is for a year endingin 9, an additional line of '9990' and ' 0' is needed.If the number of samples is recorded as zero throughoutthe series, it is assumed to be an index series for asingle radius with sample size throughout of one.
Index format permits four significant digits, 'or three
44
if there may be negative values (space is needed for a minussign) .
Description of output from Program COFECHA
Printed output of Program COFECHA appears in sevenparts.
PART 1. The dated and measured ring series arefiltered to remove the low- frequency variance. Unless theuser specifies otherwise, a log- transform will be performedon the filtered series, in order to weigh proportionaldifferences in ring measurement more equally. A smallconstant is added before transformation to avoid thepossibility of taking the logarithm of zero in case of alocally absent ring. Filtering and transformation, byremoving low- frequency variance and using only the high -frequency variance, simulates the dendrochronologist'sperception on visual examination of a ring series forcrossdating.
Experience with data sets from California suggests thatthe optimum job of discovering errors without also pointingout a considerable number of places where no problem exists,was done by using a spline length of 20 years. A stifferspline leaves too much long -term variance in the series, andthe resulting filtered series is not responsive enough tothe dating, while a more flexible spline is too responsive,and is likely to cause many correctly dated segments of aseries to be flagged for reexamination. A master datingseries is computed as the mean of all the series, derived inthe same way a conventional chronology is calculated fromindex series of individual radii (Graybill 1982). In Part 1the master series in standardized form (mean = 0, standarddeviation = 1) is listed vertically for easy reference,along with the number of individual series that are averagedto obtain the value for each year. Following this is a barplot of the master series, which is a visual aid to acrossdating check. The coefficients of variation (100 timesthe standard deviation divided by the mean) are printed in athird list. When only one series enters the master series(N =1), the coefficient of variation cannot be calculated.
Each series is temporarily removed from the masterdating series to avoid comparing the series against itself.The series is then tested segment by segment against theadjusted master series for crossdating and general measuringaccuracy, by calculating correlations for each 50 -yearsegment of the series under examination with the masterseries matched at the point of crossdating, and also at eachposition from 10 years earlier ( -10) to 10 years later ( +10)
than dated. Experience indicates that ten years on eitherside is adequate to locate most crossdating errors, andshould also catch errors made by slipping a decade while
45
measuring. Spanning more years would unnecessarily inflatethe time required for computing. Successive segments testedare lagged 25 years, giving a 50% overlap. In order to testto the ends of the series, the first segment begins with thefirst year of the series and the last ends with the lastyear. Intermediate segments begin on years evenly divisibleby the lag, 25. The overlap of the first two and last twosegments is therefore usually greater than 25 years.
A segment length of 50 years provides sufficientdegrees of freedom so that there are few segments with highor low correlation occurring by chance, and the correlationat 99% significance is not so high that a great manysegments are flagged. Yet 50 years is short enough to allowdetection of dating errors of a few years in length, andthus allow the dendrochronologist to narrow the search fordating problems.
If in any time interval a major proportion of theseries that make up the master series are incorrectly dated,the master series itself may not contain the correct dating,and most or all of the series will show low correlation forthe time interval. Test runs of the program show that ifthere are several samples, more than half may be erroneouslydated in a given time interval, and the program will stillcorrectly identify the series containing the error while notflagging the remainder. The inclusion of some erroneousseries in the master series, though not to be preferred,does not destroy the correct dating pattern.
PART 2. Correlations of each segment of the series,matched with the master, are printed in a table.Correlation values less than 0.3281, representing the 99%confidence level of significance in a one -tail test of thedistribution of the correlation coefficient with 48 degreesof freedom (N =50), are underlined and flagged. At the rightmargin the number of flagged correlations and the totalnumber of segments for the series appear.
PART 3. A line is printed for any segment whichcorrelates higher at some position other than where it wascrossdated, or which correlates below the 99% confidencelevel. This line shows the correlation of the segment ateach position from -10 to +10. The value as dated (position+0) is underlined, and the highest value between positions -10 and +10 is underlined and bracketed. The highestcorrelating position is also printed in the column labeled"HIGH." For clarity, a horizontal line separates series,and an open dashed line denotes non -consecutive segments.Nothing is printed in Part 3 if the segment does not "fail"according to the criteria described above. If no suchsegments are found in the entire data file, only a messageto this effect is printed at the end of Part 2.
46
PART 4. A table is printed of descriptive statisticsof the ring measurement series processed. It includes thetotal number of segments in each series, how many segmentswere found to have a low correlation with the master datingseries (flagged "A "), and how many matched better at otherthan the dated position (flagged "B "). The mean correlationof the series is given, along with standard time seriesstatistics of the measurements before and after filteringwith the spline.
PART 5. A list is made of those measurement valuesthat are zero (locally absent ring), or are statisticaloutliers after filtering and transforming, defined for thispurpose as being over +3.0 or -5.0 standard deviations fromthe master dating series value for that year. Theseindividual rings are identified as possible sources ofdating or measurement error, although in many cases they arecorrect.
PART 6. For each series, year -to -year differences inring measurement which differ by 4.0 standard deviations ormore from the mean of the same year -to -year differences ofthe other series are printed.
PART 7. This part appears only if there are ringmeasurement series in the optional second data file (TAPE2),or if any series in the TAPE1 file begins earlier than theyear 200 AD. The purpose of this part of the program is tofind the most probable dating of unknown series which appearto be of good quality, yet cannot be confidently dated byskeleton plot or other commonly used techniques. Seriesincluded here may be those of uncertain dating or thosesimply counted and measured. This part is nearly identicalin concept to Parker's (1967 and 1971) Shifting Unit DatingProgram.
This part indicates the most probable crossdating forthese series. As with the series in the main data file,correlations are calculated for 50 -year segments of thecounted series lagged successively 25 years, but now atevery position from beginning to end of the master series.For each segment the eleven highest correlation values areprinted (the eleven best matches), beginning with thehighest correlation ( "CORR #1 "), along with the number ofyears to add to the counted series to obtain the indicatedmatch. If the same number appears consistently in one ofthe "ADD" columns of the #1, #2 or #3 correlation, there isa high probability that the series may be dated correctly byadding this number to the count of each ring. The datingshould of course be verified on the wood sample by thedendrochronologist, since in addition to ring width, ringappearance contains clues to crossdating.
47
Interpretation of program output
The recommended use of Program COFECHA for data qualitycontrol is to examine parts 2 through 6 of the output toconfirm correct crossdating and subsequently to select thoseportions of series in which the dating and measurementshould be rechecked. Once remeasurement of portions of aseries has been done, another computer program, SESQUI, maybe used to assess the precision of the measurements usingthe method described by Fritts (1976 pp. 250 -252) .
If a segment of a series is listed in Part 3 of theprogram output, one of three things may be indicated:
(1) The crossdating may be erroneous. Crossdatingerrors are usually indicated in Part 3 by the occurrence ofa low correlation at the dated position (zero) and a muchhigher correlation at some position nearby the datedposition, say at +1 or -1, +2 or -2. If the misdatingcontinues for more than a few rings, two or more successivesegments may correlate higher at the same nonzero position.A value of +2, for example, suggests that two rings may nothave been recorded (locally absent ?) near the beginning ofthe segment, and /or two extra rings (double ?) recorded nearthe end. Picking out crossdating errors is done veryreliably by Program COFECHA. Dating errors should beconfirmed by examining the rings, corrected, and ProgramCOFECHA rerun to confirm the change and to documentcrossdating quality of the site collection.
(2) There may be a single or a few large errors inmeasuring. Most measurement errors will have the effect oflowering the correlations of the segments in which theyoccur. Segments correlating lower than the 99% confidencelevel are flagged in Part 2 and listed in Part 3. Thesesegments are good candidates for remeasurement to check forerrors in the original measurements. If the highestcorrelation shown in Part 3 is at position +10 or -10, theperson doing the measuring may have "skipped" a decade orrepeated it, although this type of error is far less likelyto occur with the use of modern automated methods of datacapture (Robinson and Evans 1980). A check of the outputfrom Part 5 will reveal statistical outliers, which may alsobe measurement errors. This part also lists dates oflocally absent rings (zero values), which should beindependently confirmed, since they are determined from thepatterns in ring features by the dendrochronologist'sjudgement.
(3) There may have been a disturbance to the growth ofthe tree. A fire, sudden removal of competition, severeinsect infestation or other environmental changes abruptlyaffecting the tree in question differently from others inthe stand, may cause ring growth to be anomalous for one ora few years, and thus produce low correlation in one or two
48
segments. This phenomenon was noted by L. O. White(personal communication), who observed in his sitecollection of Pinus lambertiana from the Mendocino NationalForest, California, that evidence of fire often occurredwithin segments of somewhat low correlation as listed byProgram COFECHA, segments which were nevertheless correctlydated.
After corrections are made, Program COFECHA should berun on the corrected measurements to provide finaldocumentation confirming the correct crossdating of the sitecollection.
Conclusions
Program COFECHA provides an efficient method of tree -ring data quality control by thoroughly checking thecrossdating of tree -ring site collections as a whole, andlocating possible errors in dating or large measurementerrors. It also serves as documentation of the crossdatingquality of dendrochronological data sets.
The Literature Cited section preceding Appendix 1contains the references for this appendix.
Acknowledgements for the development of Program COFECHA
The development of Program COFECHA was carried out atthe Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research, University of Arizona,Tucson with support of the U. S. National Science FoundationGrants ATM -8026732 and ATM -8303192, H. C. Fritts, principalinvestigator. Thanks are given for suggestions, discussionand review of the text to Harold C. Fritts, John P. Cropper,Janice M. Lough, Rex K. Adams, Valmore C. LaMarche, Jr. andMargaret Harrington of the Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research;Josh A. Boninsegna and Ricardo Villalba of the InstitutoArgentino de Nivologia y Glaciologia, Mendoza, Argentina;Malcolm K. Cleaveland, formerly of the U. S. GeologicalSurvey, now at the University of Arkansas, Fayetteville; andMichael J. Duever of the National Audubon Society.
49
APPENDIX 2
USERS MANUAL FOR PROGRAM ARSTAN
by EDWARD R. COOKLamont -Doherty Geological Observatory
of Columbia UniversityPalisades, New York 10964
and RICHARD L. HOLMESLaboratory of Tree -Ring ResearchUniversity of ArizonaTucson, Arizona 85721
Introduction
Computer program ARSTAN embodies several concepts nothitherto applied to tree -ring chronology development. Itwas developed and written by Edward R. Cook at the Tree -RingLaboratory, Lamont -Doherty Geological Observatory,Palisades, New York. The concepts are fully expounded inhis doctoral dissertation, "A Time- Series Analysis Approachto Tree -Ring Standardization" (Cook, 1985).
In October, 1983, Cook provided Program ARSTAN to theLaboratory of Tree -Ring Research, University of Arizonawhere it was adapted to ANSI Standard Fortran 77 by RichardL. Holmes. Several improvements have been incorporatedsince that time.
Program ARSTAN produces chronologies from tree -ringmeasurement series by detrending and indexing these series,then applying a robust estimation of the mean value functionto remove effects of endogenous disturbances.Autoregressive modeling of index series is used to enhancethe common signal. An option allows removing an exogenousdisturbance effect from all series using an interventionanalysis model.
How Program ARSTAN operates
On execution, Program ARSTAN performs the followingtasks:
(1) Files are opened with the following names:DATA existing file; ring measurement seriesINPUT existing file; run control instructionsOUTPUT new file; printed output of program
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The following files are created in Tree -RingMeasurement (M) format or Index (I) format and may be savedfor future use:
CHRONS Chronologies produced by program (I)
STDEV Standard deviations of chronology indices (I)
AMPLIT Principal components amplitudes (M)
DATAIN *Ring measurement series (M)
CURVE1 *First detrending curves (M)
INDEX1 *Series after single detrending (M)
CURVE2 *Second detrending curves (M)
INDEX2 *Series after double detrending (M)
RESIDS *Residuals of series. (M)
* (Saved on request only)
(2) Run control instructions are read from input and theoptions specified by the user are printed.
(3) Ring measurement data series are read. For each series:(a) series are detrended as specified by the user;(b) decade means plots are printed;(c) an exogenous disturbance period is detrended, if
requested;(d) variance of the series is stabilized, if requested;(e) the detrended series is written on a disk file for
saving, if requested.
(4) Ring measurements and/or indices of each series arelisted, if requested.
(5) Statistics of each series are calculated and printed,before and after detrending.
(6) Multivariate autoregressive modeling is performed.This task consumes a large amount of computer time. Intest runs, detrending required about 15% of computingtime, autoregressive modeling 60 %, chronology computa-tion 12 %, and common interval analysis 11 %. Thefollowing are computed in the autoregressive modeling:(a) Lag -product sum matrices(b) Pooled lag -product sums(c) Pooled autocorrelations(d) Yule -Walker estimates of pooled autoregression(e) Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)(f) Autoregression coefficients based on first -minimum
AIC search (unless constrained by user) andselectedautoregressive modeling order
(g) Impulse response function weights of the pooledautoregression process
(h) Box -Pierce two standard error limits of residualautocorrelation function based on the pooledautoregression coefficients.
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(7) Univariate autoregressive modeling is performed, fittingan autoregressive process of the selected order to eachseries, and the following are computed for the residualseries:(a) Statistics for each series(b) Autoregressive coefficients for each series and the
variance explained by autoregression(c) Normalized residuals which are outliers overthree
standard deviations from mean.
(8) Multivariate autoregressive modeling is performed onthe residual series to determine if residual multi-variate lag effects remain. The following are computedas before:(a) Lag -product sum matrices(b) Pooled lag- product sums(c) Pooled autocorrelations(d) Yule -Walker estimates of pooled autoregression(e) Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)(f) Selected autoregression order.
If no significant multivariate persistence remainsafter the univariate fitting, the autoregression orderselected now should be zero.
(9) The 'STNDRD' version of the chronology is computed.Detrended tree -ring index series are combined into amean value function containing the series selected bythe user in the chronology mask. Means for each yearare computed at the user's option as either thebiweight robust estimate or the arithmetic mean (Cook,1985). The biweight mean is an integral part of theARSTAN methodology and is strongly recommended.Printed along with the chronology indices are thesample depth and statistics on the chronology,including the distribution of yearly values,autocorrelation structure and the gain or loss inefficiency of robust estimation of the mean. If noautoregressive modeling is done, this is the onlyversion of the chronology produced.
(10) The residual (not whitened) version, 'RES NW', iscomputed in the same manner as the STNDRD version, thistime using the residual series resulting from step (7)above. The same statistics are also printed for thischronology.
(11) The portion of the residual chronology containing fouror more series is modeled up to the autoregressive orderselected in the first multivariate autoregressivemodeling in step (6f). If the first -minimum AIC searchresults in a selected order greater than zero, theentire residual chronology is whitened using the auto -regressive coefficients from this modeling. Theresulting white noise residual ('RESID') chronology
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version is printed along with sample depth andstatistics on the chronology including distributionof yearly values and autocorrelation structure.
(12) Using the autoregressive coefficients selected in thefirst multivariate autoregressive modeling in step (6f),the pooled autoregression is added to the residualchronology to produce the 'ARSTAN' chronology. Printedalong with this version of the chronology are thesample depth and statistics on the chronology includingthe first four moments of yearly values and autocorre-lation structure.
(13) A comparison is made between the 'STNDRD' and 'ARSTAN'chronology versions as to their variance and the corre-lation between them for 50 -year intervals with 25 yearoverlaps, and for the entire chronology. The errorvariance is compared for the 'STNDRD' and 'ARSTAN'chronology versions to determine what improvement hasbeen made in the chronology by autoregressive modeling.
(14) If the user provides more input lines with chronologymask, another set of chronology versions is produced asin steps (9) through (13) .
(15) A common interval is required for correlation andrelated computations. This interval is specified bythe user. The common interval is the maximum time spanwhich is completely covered by a maximum number ofradial index series. That is, this interval is theperiod of time for which this product of the length ofthe common time interval times the number of seriescompletely covering this interval is the greatest.This effectively omits from the analysis those spans ofyears for which there is a minimum of comparative data.The resulting interval calculated contains the greatestnumber of tree rings whose radii cover the spancompletely. The detrended series are analyzed for thistime span and the following are computed for thatinterval:
(a) statistics on individual detrended series andon the 'STNDRD' chronology version;
(b) a matrix of correlations for all possible pairsof series and for each series with thechronology;
(c) average correlation with confidence limits forall pairs, those between trees, those withintrees and those between the series and thechronology;
(d) signal -to -noise ratio based on number of trees;(e) estimated agreement of the sample chronology
variance with that of the theoretical popula-tion chronology, and of samples of reducedreplication (Wigley, Briffa and Jones, 1984);
(f) eigenvalues, eigenvectors and amplitudes for
53
the requested number of principal components,along with statistics on the amplitude seriesincluding distribution of yearly values andautocorrelation structure.
(16) A common interval analysis is carried out as in step(15), using the individual residual series and the'RESID' chronology version. The residual series arethe results of autoregressive modeling of the detrendedseries and contain approximately equal amounts ofvariance at all wavelengths; by analogy to light wavefrequencies, these are white noise series, and theanalysis describes the white noise fraction of theunmodeled individual series and chronology.
(17) The residual version (autoregressively modeled) of eachseries and the chronology used in (16) is subtractedfrom its detrended version used in (15) to produceseries containing only the variance that was removed byautoregressive modeling. By analogy to light, this isthe red noise fraction of the unmodeled series andchronology, since more of its variance is at the longerwavelengths than at the shorter ones. A commoninterval analysis is also done on these series.
(18) A one -page resume is produced of the most importantstatistics of the chronologies. The resume is of theproper size for photocopying on 8.5" by 11" paper.
(19) Chronology versions are printed in easy -to -readvertical format.
Comments on running Program ARSTAN
In running Program ARSTAN, one should carefully selectamong the available options and make certain that the jobcontrol lines are written correctly.
Detrending is intended to remove overall trend in tree -ring measurement series, and to remove part of the varianceat extremely low frequencies approaching the total length ofthe series. Information on climatic variance at these verylow frequencies is not contained in the time series in anycase. Detrending causes the time series characteristics ofthe various measurement series to be more similar to eachother, and prepares them for subsequent autoregressivemodeling. If the detrending accomplishes the task ofremoving a large proportion of the non -climatic variability,autoregressive modeling may only marginally improve the timeseries characteristics of the 'STNDRD' chronology versionwhen producing the 'ARSTAN' version.
Fritts (1976, p. 254 -290) discusses at length theconcept and reasons for detrending tree -ring series. In
54
detrending, three curve -fitting techniques are commonlyused.
(1) Negative exponential curve.
A negative exponential curve of the form
Y = A * e ** ( -B * t) + D
is fit to the data set. An iteration procedure is used,which continues until the improvement of the fit is verysmall. If the fitted curve has a negative constant (D) or apositive slope, the fitted curve is rejected and a a linearregression is fit to the data (Fritts et al., 1969). The
coefficients of the equation are applied to the data toestimate the growth curve, and the data are divided by theestimates to obtain the indices that are stationary with amean of 1.00. The negative exponential curve conforms to atheoretical decrease in annual tree growth increments due tothe geometry of an increasing trunk diameter but as shown inAppendix 3, the precision of the fit is better at thebeginning than at the end of the time sequence.
(2) Linear regression line.
The simplest detrending method is to fit a leastsquares regression line through the data. It conforms to notheoretical model of tree growth, and is probably best usedon series that are very short or that have an unusual growthpattern that the negative exponential curve cannotaccommodate.
(3) Cubic smoothing spline.
This method smoothly fits a succession of cubicpolynomial curves to the data in one pass (it is not aniterative process). It follows the path of the data much asa draftsman's flexible ruler would do. Its elegance lies inits predictability and in the certainty of its time seriesbehavior. The amount of variance to be removed at aparticular frequency can be precisely specified; it willremove more variance at lower frequencies, less at higherfrequencies. In other words, its flexibility can be exactlyspecified and is almost infinitely adjustable. In ProgramARSTAN, the 50 percent cutoff wavelength for the spline canbe specified by the user (Cook and Peters 1981).
On plotting tree -ring data and the curves fit to them,we have observed that frequently the curves do not fitideally. An exponential curve often fits very well theearliest third or so of a series where the slope is steeplynegative and the curvature is strong. Toward the middle andlater parts of the series, it may tend to ride along for acouple of centuries almost entirely above or below theactual values of tree growth, yielding long stretches of low
55
or high indices. On the other hand, a very stiff cubicspline (50 percent frequency cutoff at 300 years or more),may follow the data far better than the exponential curvefor the later two- thirds of the series, but it may be toostiff to follow the bend in the steeply downward trendingearly part of the series.
A two -stage process of detrending frequently solvesthis problem by fitting a negative exponential curve andcalculating the indices to flatten the series, then fittinga cubic spline of stiffness (50 percent frequency cutoff)equal to the length of the series to follow the local meanof the data, and calculating the indices again. Amodification is used for those series that cannot be fit byan exponential curve and a linear regression is usedinstead. After the indices are calculated, a spline is fitwith stiffness of two -thirds the length of the series.
The double detrending option is the default in ProgramARSTAN, and it will take effect if the first three controlcard options are zero or blank. For most of the otheroptions the default (zero) value should also besatisfactory. If the control card is completely blank, allthe default options are selected.
On our current system, tape REKs show the first 50characters of the first line of a file. Program ARSTANautomatically places the date and time into columns 37 to 50of the chronology header lines. For this reason it is agood idea to have a full and unique identification of therun contained in the first 36 characters of the title, whichwill also appear in the header for the chronologies.
Data formats
See the section by the same name in the Users Manualfor Program COFECHA (Appendix 2) for information on dataformats.
Chronology versions produced pi program ARSTAN
In the file created by the program with logical filename 'CHRONS' and also printed in the output are severalversions of the site chronologies with different time- seriescharacteristics.
(1) 'STNDRD' version.
This version is produced in a manner similar to thatused in traditional chronology generating programs such asINDEX /SUMAC (Graybill, 1982). A chronology is computed ofseries of tree -ring data that have been detrended by curve-fitting to remove a large part of the variance due to causes
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other than climate. Program ARSTAN provides several choicesof how this chronology is computed. Single or two -stagedetrending of individual series may be done with a varietyof options; indices for a series may be computed either asratios (by division) or as residuals (by subtraction); anintervention model may be applied if desired; variance maybe stabilized over time; and the mean value function may becomputed either as biweight robust estimated means or asarithmetic means. If no autoregressive modeling is done,the STNDRD chronology is the only version produced.
(2) 'RESID' version.
The initial (nonwhitened) residual version ('RES NW)is produced in the same manner as the STNDRD version, but inthis case the series summarized are residuals fromautoregressive modeling.
If modeling of the residual chronology reveals that itis an autoregressive process, the chronology is whitened bymodeling the portion of the chronology containing four ormore series, and applying the model to the entire residualseries. This produces the 'RESID' chronology version. Ifthe RES NW chronology is not an autoregressive process, theRESID chronology is identical to it. The earliest date ofthe RES NW and RESID versions may be one or more years laterthan the STNDRD. An option is provided on chronologycontrol line 2, to force whitening of the residualchronology.
(3) 'ARSTAN' version.
Pooled autoregression is added to the RESID version toproduce the ARSTAN chronology. The pooled autoregressioncontains the persistence common and synchronous among alarge proportion of series from the site, without includingthat found in only one or a very few series (Cook, 1985).It is intended to contain the best climatic signal availableat the present state of the art. The earliest date of theARSTAN chronology is usually the same year as the STNDRD, orintermediate between the STNDRD and RESID chronologyversions.
If common interval analysis is done, the requestednumber of principal component amplitudes for the commoninterval are written on the AMPLIT file (default is 4).Three sets of principal component amplitude series areproduced: for the detrended series, white noise fractionand red noise fraction respectively.
If another pair of chronology input lines is provided,another set of chronology versions (STNDRD, RESID, ARSTAN)is computed according to the next chronology mask andinstructions.
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To run program ARSTAN:
Prepare 'INPUT' control lines according to instructions.Attach ring measurement data with logical file name
'DATA'.Attach program library and declare it a library. Request
permanent file space for 'CHRONS' and for any otherfiles to be saved.
Execute ARSTAN.Catalog the 'CHRONS' file and any others to be saved.
Control instructions:
First line -- Run title up to 80 characters long.
Second line -- Main control parameters, right -justified infields of 5 characters:
Col 1 to 5 FIT1First detrending option:
0: By default, if 'FIT1' and subsequent options 'FIT2'and 'FIT3' are all zero, an exponential curve is fit,followed by a spline with half -power cutoff (stiff-ness) equal to the length of the series. If anexponential cannot be fit, a linear regression isused, followed by a spline of stiffness equal to 2/3the series length.
The following values in 'FIT1' have these effects:
1: A negative exponential curve is fit, or if itfails, a linear regression line is fit.
2: A negative exponential curve is fit, or if it fails,a linear regression line of negative slope ora horizontal line through the mean is fit.
3: A linear regression line is fit.
4: A horizontal line is fit through the mean.
5 or greater: Spline is fit with stiffness of thismany years.
Negative: Spline with stiffness of this percent of theseries length is fit. For example, if 'FIT1' is -75,spline stiffness is 75 percent of each series length.
Col 6 to 10 FIT2Second detrending option as described above. Choicesare the same as for 'FIT1'. If 'FIT1' is nonzero and'FIT2' is zero, no second detrending is done.
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Col 11 to 15 FIT3Percent stiffness of alternate spline. If curvespecified by 'FIT1' cannot be fit, second detrendingspline stiffness is this percent of the spline indi-cated by 'FIT2'. For example, if 'FITI' is I, 'FIT2'is -100 and 'FIT3' is 67, first detrending is exponen-tial curve and second is spline of stiffness = 'N'
1.00. If exponential cannot be fit, first detrendingis regression line and second is spline = 'N' * 1.00* .67. If 'FIT3' is zero or blank, this value is 67.
Col 16 to 20 FIT4Minimum spline stiffness -- spline length will neverbe less than this value. If zero or blank, minimumstiffness is 100. One may not wish to fit a veryflexible spline to short series in order to conservein the series a persistence structure similar to thatof the longer series.
Col 21 to 25 NEXIt may be necessary to alter or treat some seriesdifferently. NEX will contain the number of seriesthe user will select for special treatment. Thetreatments that can be specified include exceptions tothe above general curve -fitting procedure, truncationof data at either end or omission from processing.The treatments are listed on the NEX lines that follow.The maximum number here is 50.
Col 26 to 30 INDXOptions for computing indices:0: Ratio; measurement divided by curve value.1: Residual; measurement minus curve value.
Col 31 to 35 IPOptions for autoregressive modeling method:0: The same order autoregressive process as selected
by multivariate autoregressive modeling is fit toeach series using its own coefficients.
-1: Each series is modeled as an autoregressiveprocess where the order is selected for eachseries by first -minimum Akaike InformationCriterion search.
-2: No autoregressive modeling is done. The chronologyis computed by the standard method only.
>0: User override of the first- minimum Akaike informa-tion criterion search. The order to be fit toeach series is specified by a positive value.
Col 36 to 40 MASKIf this value is zero, no mask is read from input, andall series are used for computing the pooled autore-gression model. Set this value to 1 if a subset of theseries is to be used. Include the mask on an input
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line after the lines (if any) for series to get specialtreatment. Each column of the mask corresponds sequen-tially to the respective series. Enter a '1' if theseries is to be used, or a '0' if it is to be bypassed.This option may be invoked if there is reason to believethat a subset of the series is uncontaminated bydisturbance and therefore has the cleanest stochasticstructure for modeling and for producing the 'ARSTAN'chronology.
Col 41 to 45 PLOT0: Line printer plotsof decade means of measurements,
detrending curves and indices for each series.-1: No line printer plots of individual series.
Col 48 to 50 STATDescriptive statistics computed for individual series.Place a letter 'N' in the following columns to omitstatistics for:
Col 48: Ring measurement seriesCol 49: Detrended index seriesCol 50: Residual series from autoregressive modeling
Col 51 DATA FORMATIf tree -ring data are to be read in INDEX format, placea letter 'I' in column 51. Default is to read data inring measurement format.
Col 53 to 55 LISTList the individual series values. Place any letterin the following columns to obtain full listings for:
Col 53: Ring measurement series
Col 54: Detrended index series
Col 55: Residual series from autoregressive modeling
Col 56 to 60 SAVESave individual series on disk file. Place any letterin the following columns to save these series in tree -ring measurement format (name of file created is inparentheses):
Col 56: (DATAIN) Original ring measurement series
Col 57: (CURVE1)(CURVE2)
Curves from first detrending andfrom second detrending
Col 58: (INDEX1) Series after single detrending
Col 59: (INDEX2) Series after double detrending
Col 60: (RESIDS) Residuals of series
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Col 61 to 65 INTYIf a stand -wide (exogenous) disturbance is known tohave occurred, the starting year of the disturbance maybe entered here, and an intervention model is thenapplied to each series. If this value is zero, nointervention model is done.
Col 66 to 70 INTFDetrending option for exogenous disturbance interval.Options are the same as for 'FIT1'.
Col 71 to 75 IVSStabilization of time series variance:
0: No variance stabilization is done.1: Stabilize variance of each detrended index series.2: Stabilize variance of the chronology only.
Col 76 to 80 IVFTDetrending option for variance stabilization. Optionsare the same as those for 'FITl', plus the following:-1: Do square root transform.-2: Add 1 to each value in series and do log transform.
From zero to 50 optional lines as specified by thevalue of NEX above are inserted here to indicate the kind ofspecial treatment required, such as detrending, curve -fitting, truncation at the beginning and /or the end oromitting the series from processing. Each line contains anyor all of the following, in format (A8,2X,415):
Col i to 8: Series identification
Col 11 to 15: 'FIT1' value for this series only
Col 16 to 20: 'FIT2' value for this series only
Col 22 to 25: Beginning year of series after truncation
Col 26 to 30: Ending year of series after truncation.If either beginning or ending year specified is out ofthe date range of the series, this series will beomitted from processing. BEWARE: An omitted seriesis not counted in the sequencing, so check carefullythe pooled autoregression and chronology masks forproper sequencing.
An additional optional line is added next for thepooled autoregression mask if the MASK control parameter isgreater than zero. Each column corresponds to a seriessequence number. Enter a '1' if the series is to be used,or a '0' if it is to be bypassed.
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Chronology computation instructions are entered next on2 or 3 lines per chronology:
Line #1 (Optional) -- Chronology title
Line #1 (or 2), A mask is entered into Col 1 to 80 aswas done for the autoregression mask described above.Each column corresponds to a series sequence number.For common interval analysis, series from a giventree are coded sequentially '1', '2', '3'. Asample mask might be:
1212123412011212121230121
Trees #1 and #2 have two series each, tree #3 hasfour series, etc. This coding is necessary forcalculating the average correlation for pairs withinand between trees, and for computing the signal -to-noise ratio. A zero embedded in the mask causes thatseries to be skipped.
Line #2 (or 3), Common interval analysis instructions:
Col 1 to 4 IFCThis is the first year of common intervalanalysis. If zero, no analysis is performed.
Col 6 to 9 ILCLast year of common interval analysis.
Col 10 to 11 SUM0: Biweight robust mean chronology is
computed.-1: Arithmetic mean chronology is computed.-2: No chronology is computed.
Col 12 to 13 IRPRewhitening option for removing persistencein residual chronology
0: Rewhitening is done if needed to the auto -regressive order selected by full -minimumAIC. The maximum order is constrained notto exceed the pooled autoregressive order.
>0: Rewhitening is done up to the order speci-fied. This option overrides the AIC, but inany case the order will not exceed the orderof the pooled autoregression model.
Col 14 to 15 STAT0: Individual series statistics are computed
for common interval.-1: No individual series statistics for common
interval.
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Col 16 to 17 LISTO: Long list and printer plot of chronology.
-1: No long list or printer plot.
Col 18 to 19 NEIGThe number of eigenvectors and principalcomponent amplitudes to be calculated fromthe common interval, printed and saved in file'AMPLIT'. If the number entered is greaterthan the number of series, all that can becalculated are saved. The following entriesdesignate special conditions:
0: The default number of four eigenvectors andamplitudes are printed and saved.
<O: No eigenvectors or amplitudes are calculated.
On the University of Arizona CYBER 175, Program ARSTANrequires 350K of central memory. An example of the jobcontrol lines for Program ARSTAN as used on the Universityof Arizona CYBER 175 computer follows:
NAME,BN ,T300,CM377K,ST76,P0.PW,ATTACH,DATA,Ring measurement file,ID=ATTACH,RLHLIB,ID =RLH.LIBRARY,RLHLIB.REQUEST,CHRONS,PF.REQUEST,STDEV,PF.REQUEST,AMPLIT,PF.ARSTAN.CATALOG,CHRONS,Site chronologies,ID = ,RP =999.CATALOG,STDEV,Standard deviations,ID= ,RP =999.CATALOG,AMPLIT,Principal component amps,ID ,RP =999.
Control -Z (End -of -file marker)PUNTA BANDA, BC [Juniper] (Title for run)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (Control parameters)1231121212121231212123121212311211212 (Chronology mask)1741 1980 0 0 0 0 0 (Common interval)
The above lines are the only instructions required for astandard run of Program ARSTAN. The following lines areoptional, and if present, follow the control parameter line.The number of these lines is placed in column 25 of thecontrol parameter line, in this example, '5'.
Instructions for "exceptions" to control parameters:
PBA12A 3 0 0 0 (Single detrending, regres-sion line)
PBA14B 1 120 0 0 (Double detrending: expon-ential then 120 -yearspline)
PBA10A 0 0 1473 0 (Omit part before 1473)PBA04D 0 0 0 1973 (Omit part after 1973)PBA17C 0 0 -999 0 (Omit series from processing
Autoregression mask (If this line is present, place a '1' incolumn 40 of the control parameter line.)
1111101111111011111100111111111101111
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Subroutines required by Program ARSTAN
On the University of Arizona CYBER 175, the main programand all required subroutines are contained in program libraryRLHLIB, ID = RLH. On tapes provided for other users, the mainprogram and all subroutines are written on a single file. In
addition to the main program, ARSTAN, the followingsubroutines are needed: ADRED, ARCOR, ARSTA, ARSUM, BIWGT,COMPAC, COPY, CRONY, CURVE, DETRND, DIVSER, FTAUTO, HOM VAR,HTDQL, MATINV, MEMPR, PAGE, PLTDEC, POOL, PROB, PRTDAT, RANK,RESUME, SPLINE, STAT2, TREND, TRIR.
The program dimensions may be modified to handle moreseries (or less) and /or a longer (or shorter) chronology, by
changing the PARAMETER statement following the PROGRAM line inARSTAN. 'M XS' should be set to one greater than the maximumnumber of series; 'MXY' to nine more than the maximumchronology length.
The Literature Cited section preceding Appendix 1contains the references for this appendix.
Acknowledgements of support in development of Program ARSTAN
The work of both authors was supported by the Division ofAtmospheric Sciences, Climate Dynamics Research Section, U. S.
National Science Foundation.
Edward R. Cook, Tree -Ring Laboratory, Lamont -DohertyGeological Observatory, Palisades, New York, was supported by
Grant ATM-8108459.
Richard L. Holmes, Laboratory of Tree -Ring Research,University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, was supported by GrantATM -8303192.
We are indebted to Harold C. Fritts for much consultationand advice on studying the time series characteristics ofchronologies produced by the program. David W. Stahle of theUniversity of Arkansas, Fayetteville and Jose A. Boninsegna,Instituto Argentino de Nivología y Glaciologia, Mendoza,Argentina, users of program ARSTAN since its early days, have
made valuable comments and suggestions which have led to
significant improvements. We thank Margaret Harrington,Barbara Molloy and Jacqueline Mather for transcription andreview of the text.
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APPENDIX 3
S I T E C H R O N O L O G I E S
The site chronologies appear in the order of their latitude,
north to south, numbered as in Tables 1 and 2.
See Figure 1 for a map of chronology site locations.
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TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE SPR Site no. 1
Site name: SPRING CANYON and SHARP RIDGESpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalis
LODGEPOLE PINE, Pinus contortaCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: GRANTAdministration: UMATILLA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Dale, OR 1951Elevation: 1340 -1610 m Latitude: 44° 54'N Longitude: 118° 55'WNo. of trees sampled: JUOC 38 No. of core samples: JUOC 72
PICO 1 PICO 1
Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
This collection is from two subsites in the southwest portion of Umatilla NationalForest in northeastern Oregon. The 29 trees of the Spring Canyon subsite are 11.2 km(7 mi) south of the small village of Dale and 8 km (5 mi) southeast of U.S. Highway395. They are on a flat- topped ridge overlooking Spring Canyon and Bully Creek. The 9trees of the Sharp Ridge collection, 8 km (5 mi) east -southeast of Spring Canyon, areat scattered locations along the Sharp Ridge Road. Both locations have an igneousbedrock base of basalt and andesite in flat- topped flow ridges and rock piles. Theaccumulated soil is thin (20 to 40 cm) on both the flat ridgetops and on the moderate(6° to 12 °) southwest and south facing slopes. In the Spring Canyon subsite the standis open, mostly western juniper with a few ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). The
openness may be a result of cutting and forest fires. The understory is sagebrush(Artemisia spp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp) and many wildflowers and grasses. At the Sharp Ridge subsite the stand is a closed mixed coniferforest of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), Douglas -fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii),lodgepole pine and some firs (Abies spp). Western juniper are fairly sparse. Theunderstory here is similar to Spring Canyon, though thinner and with less sagebrush.In both subsites juniper is beset with heartrot and by the moss called "Old Man'sBeard."
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSPRING CANYON, OREGON [JUOC]Chronology 1405 to 1982 (578 years) 31 trees, 59 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMeanMedianMean sensitivityStandard deviationSkewnessKurtosis
Autocorrelation orderPartial autocorr. orderPartial autocorr. order
1.000 1.000 1.001.982 .958 .972
.290 .339 .298
.347 .313 .330
.591 .691 .651
3.927 4.168 3.920
1 .437 -.047 .285
2 .070 -.044 .162
3 -.027 -.025 -.022
Variance from autoregression 21.9 pct 13.0 pct
Error variance .013002 .008551Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .658
Common interval 1847 to 1982 (136 years) 27 trees, 43 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radiiBetween trees (Y variance)Within trees
Signal -to -noise ratio
.427 .482
.420 .474
.742 .787
19.52 24.35Agreement with pop. chron. .951 .961
Variance in eigenvector 1 43.90 pct 49.22 pctChron, common interval mean 1.014 1.005Chron. common interval st dev .257 .230
67
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SPRING CANYON, OREGON JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1405 144 87 60 731410 82 76 200 102 123 125 135 90 1271420 142 156 62 151 107 125 92 128 881430 32 124 111 38 138 84 36 44 511440 151 189 187 63 69 33 88 128 971450 57 28 65 58 69 94 181 82 108
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ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1460 77 94 107 86 111 118 104 114 64 202 1 1 1 1 1 1
1470 200 140 99 144 47 57 42 80 112 50 1 1 1 1 1 2
1480 110 125 181 104 126 109 86 44 80 72 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1490 80 89 110 93 63 90 126 118 96 192 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1500 119 115 67 182 96 207 158 96 89 72 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1510 64 74 58 37 60 57 48 67 72 143 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1520 129 111 126 85 94 142 85 51 83 71 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1530 94 44 54 50 118 127 143 93 146 160 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1540 122 101 109 82 104 102 75 99 139 94 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1550 111 167 99 97 79 128 85 183 139 99 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1560 114 105 94 87 155 88 167 58 38 76 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 51570 68 94 94 131 119 134 96 79 99 112 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51580 111 50 141 167 84 118 149 109 157 73 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1590 123 69 90 52 49 57 143 158 103 110 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1600 83 107 108 86 79 67 65 70 81 74 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4
1610 140 92 66 50 62 63 74 135 79 46 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1620 29 84 112 48 112 38 21 39 65 86 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
1630 83 48 118 183 104 121 98 74 98 62 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
1640 88 124 128 62 66 59 71 79 110 141 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1650 123 155 159 90 237 108 181 74 149 148 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1660 95 115 90 93 100 75 218 153 137 183 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1670 173 181 157 97 99 98 67 64 115 73 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1680 56 121 113 76 77 79 149 147 65 43 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1690 28 54 69 123 87 153 63 83 63 78 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5
1700 86 136 102 92 136 75 67 41 67 65 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1710 64 57 95 80 70 89 122 62 64 62 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
1720 93 113 112 109 95 99 103 131 77 141 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
1730 91 150 128 113 57 84 74 125 183 116 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8
1740 99 62 99 127 99 110 114 114 105 130 10 11 12 14 14 14 14 16 17 17
1750 116 109 119 79 78 117 83 77 134 114 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19
1760 140 126 105 118 67 106 120 131 111 92 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 22 22 22
1770 118 102 88 112 102 114 88 92 88 87 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23
1780 88 109 86 90 106 107 95 61 83 94 23 24 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 26
1790 83 128 95 102 76 87 81 75 104 123 26 26 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 28
1800 77 117 90 108 89 101 102 81 96 120 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 29 29 29
1810 90 98 104 104 130 106 118 86 115 94 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31
1820 110 101 107 118 112 140 101 79 86 121 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32
1830 88 68 112 94 78 111 65 87 86 125 33 33 34 34 35 36 36 36 37 37
1840 63 127 104 85 90 100 79 84 102 66 38 38 38 41 44 45 46 47 47 47
1850 83 118 79 109 115 133 120 111 120 71 47 48 48 48 49 49 49 50 50 50
1860 127 121 111 108 125 70 105 66 106 80 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 51 51
1870 103 77 68 120 87 146 82 139 99 102 51 53 53 54 54 54 54 54 55 54
1880 64 101 76 92 119 132 72 77 101 106 54 54 54 54 55 55 55 55 55 55
1890 78 123 96 88 116 84 107 113 127 92 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
1900 165 102 107 102 115 118 127 135 125 117 55 55 59 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
1910 90 126 117 140 152 159 134 72 85 82 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
1920 87 124 88 134 63 70 49 72 51 74 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
1930 60 54 68 67 110 91 86 98 82 97 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
1940 72 150 128 110 84 80 101 107 126 80 55 55 55 54 54 54 54 54 54 54
1950 79 71 74 99 132 90 121 115 132 84 54 54 54 54 53 53 53 53 53 53
1960 106 102 97 86 120 97 97 113 90 135 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53
1970 120 122 88 85 84 70 97 141 126 77 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52
1980 127 128 78 52 52 52
69
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE COM Site no. 2
Site name: COMMITTEE CREEKSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalis
PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: CROOKAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 1:250,000 series, Bend, OR and Ochoco
National Forest map 1979Elevation: 1486 -1518 m Latitude:44° 10'N Longitude: 120° 14'WNo. of trees sampled: JUOC 29 No. of core samples: JUOC 65
PIPO 2 PIPO 4
Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA, WXD
Site description:
The three subsites comprising the Committee Creek collection are 75.2 km (47 mi)east- southeast of the town of Prineville, Oregon, near the headwaters of CommitteeCreek, a small tributary of the North Fork of the Crooked River, at the southernboundary of the west portion of Ochoco National Forest. All the subsite areas are onthe slopes and ridge tops of igneous basalt outcrops. Two subsites are on moderatelysteep (8° to 14 °) south -southeast and east facing slopes. A third subsite is across thevalley and the sampled trees are on a much steeper (20° to 25 °) west to southwestfacing slope. The sampled juniper ranges from 5 to 11 m in height and 47 to 90 cm indiameter. The presence of stumps indicates logging and limbing. There are also a fewfire -scarred trees. In the third area many of the sampled trees have spiked crowns ordead branches. Many of the junipers have heartrot, where the wood produced prior toabout 1740 has rotted away. This is an unusual setting for a western juniper site asthere are also ponderosa pine, western larch (Larix occidentalis) and some firs (Abiesspp) in a mixed conifer forest. The understory consists of sagebrush (Artemisia spp),rabbit brush (Crysothamnus spp) and mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus spp).
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSCOMMITTEE CREEK, OREGON [JUOC]
Chronology 1260 to 1982 (723 years) 22 trees, 40 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.001 1.000Median .988 .972 .990Mean sensitivity .273 .289 .266Standard deviation .311 .261 .297Skewness .354 .528 .395Kurtosis 3.263 3.632 3.346
Autocorrelation order 1 .413 -.003 .375Partial autocorr. order 2 .202 -.005 .197Partial autocorr. order 3 .070 -.045 -.005
Variance from autoregression 16.7 pct 14.1 pctError variance .010361 .006877Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .664
Common interval 1747 to 1982 (236 years) 17 trees, 23 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .510 .603Between trees (Y variance) .496 .592Within trees .785 .817
Signal -to -noise ratio 16.72 24.67Agreement with pop. chron. .944 .961Variance in eigenvector 1 52.44 pct 61.56 pctChron. common interval mean 1.041 1.013Chron. common interval st dev .292 .263
70
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COMMITTEE CREEK, OREGON JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1262 208 106 132 165 194 150 113 105 1 1 1 1
1270 79 87 53 64 56 42 56 120 154 144 1 1 1 1
1280 151 130 139 168 110 73 61 132 104 75 1 1 1 1
1290 61 110 41 90 122 115 36 31 59 33 1 1 1 1
1300 78 20 57 85 46 90 61 97 57 49 1 1 1 1
1310 69 52 58 99 76 31 68 84 102 98 1 1 1 1
1320 86 114 121 75 78 172 137 165 127 158 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1330 141 151 171 104 144 123 109 146 67 127 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1340 98 147 101 121 71 98 99 103 97 124 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 31350 158 71 96 71 106 81 93 99 97 88
31360 112 81 75 110 132 118 109 116 89 59 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31370 111 87 89 103 126 131 86 57 73 109 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31380 79 98 78 69 101 109 100 101 101 104 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1390 85 94 89 79 89 57 57 51 90 77 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1400 134 131 153 82 116 118 73 59 58 72 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1410 58 71 87 69 84 94 102 107 80 84 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51420 83 120 90 116 92 116 84 116 63 86 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1430 110 88 85 79 85 132 91 99 126 99 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71440 122 112 112 109 102 79 120 118 82 91 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 81450 95 102 80 109 112 86 129 112 77 116 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
1460 85 102 130 97 80 103 74 107 80 106 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11
1470 152 122 115 119 96 94 141 94 102 91 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
1480 116 128 154 119 138 127 139 109 93 105 11 11 II 11 11 11 11 11 11 12
1490 108 100 114 131 91 90 114 114 96 153 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1500 83 97 77 111 124 145 136 138 140 116 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1510 94 181 135 78 80 67 54 84 67 129 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
1520 96 106 98 105 74 131 119 91 108 106 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
1530 120 74 78 73 68 90 124 107 131 157 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
1540 89 93 127 105 126 105 71 84 125 74 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
1550 84 120 114 92 82 67 60 128 81 101 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12
1560 106 86 89 80 180 69 124 80 105 113 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1570 88 56 115 100 144 114 105 131 147 143 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1580 93 58 117 118 94 86 110 132 160 119 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1590 140 102 127 63 62 59 90 147 117 153 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1600 104 131 120 102 105 70 80 89 114 69 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1610 205 119 105 68 80 82 99 159 105 80 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1620 41 109 94 77 114 73 44 65 57 67 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1630 48 51 41 128 118 123 115 95 115 90 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1640 116 162 210 139 96 75 79 81 141 76 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1650 110 90 85 46 78 79 103 36 94 86 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1660 73 142 94 121 83 73 133 122 104 121 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1670 118 102 136 100 85 81 93 78 119 8216
16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
1680 85 154 109 103 98 96 115 114 72 96 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 1616901700
50 5896 117
6499
7666
117111
9466
6257
8583
6954
5455
1617
1617
1617
1617
1617
1717
1717
1718
1718
1710 62 60 65 78 73 89 87 54 42 73 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
1720 76 71 119 76 94 86 108 133 44 73 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
1730 80 70 108 86 96 56 70 124 161 127 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 21
1740 132 63 98 114 108 152 119 112 108 152 22 26 29 29 31 31 32 33 33 331750 191 33 152 92 101 130 100 102 128 127 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 331760 116 49 111 133 62 119 150 158 124 108 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 351770 106 07 113 133 101 83 132 110 92 97 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351780 116 15 94 76 126 119 110 86 65 85 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 361790 102 28 90 71 69 72 84 62 91 117 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 361800 79 24 100 109 72 113 69 69 97 127 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 361810 105 03 120 152 123 101 127 77 128 67 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 36 361820 85 81 130 101 101 174 139 103 71 102 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 361830 86 58 63 64 68 143 68 75 73 108 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 361840 37 113 78 63 68 125 87 73 90 57 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 361850 55 105 109 134 106 155 113 99 90 60 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 35 351860 114 142 133 104 140 88 149 83 135 103 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351870 99 89 64 113 102 115 84 157 106 144 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351880 63 111 83 89 121 183 86 71 56 75 35 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 331890 42 108 92 83 136 96 111 130 110 97 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 321900 165 113 115 121 140 136 144 115 132 90 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 321910 101 103 105 110 157 125 144 65 65 91 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 311920 96 142 105 163 61 107 82 99 81 93 31 31 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 301930 74 69 80 61 87 95 122 107 108 88 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 29 291940 95 117 115 91 52 54 39 70 92 62 29 29 29 27 27 26 26 26 26 261950 75 72 65 89 76 60 85 72 99 68 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 251960 93 89 107 122 134 127 135 142 102 134 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 251970 117 99 110 94 99 79 105 146 171 112 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 251980 127 120 81 25 25 25
72
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE CAL Site no. 3
Site name: CALAMITY CREEKSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: HARNEYAdministration: MALHEUR NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Calamity Butte, OR 1961Elevation: 1433 -1494 m Latitude: 43° 59'N Longitude: 118° 48'WNo. of trees sampled: 40 No. of core samples: 91Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA, WXD
Site description:
The site collection consists of two subsites on opposing bluffs of a smalltributary drainage of Calamity Creek in eastern Oregon. Access to this area is fromU.S. Highway 395, 13.6 km (8.5 mi) east on the Van -Silvies Road. The intersection ofthe Van -Silvies Road and U.S. Highway 395 is 17.6 km (11 mi) south of the village ofSeneca and 54.4 km (34 mi) north of the town of Burns. Both subsites are on steep (20to 45 °) slopes and vertical cliffs of mixed metamorphic schists and igneous outcropsthat overlook the Van -Silvies Road and Calamity Creek, 1.2 km (0.8 mi) west of IthemaSpring. The slopes predominantly, face south, southeast and east. On the bedrockoutcrops and the cliffs there is almost no soil, while on the bluff tops and in some ofthe colluvial slopes there is 30 to 100 cm of sandy or ashy soil. For the majority ofthe sites the stand is open, with a few clusters. The juniper ranges from 4 to 11 m inheight and 44 to 120 cm in diameter. Many trees have large basal branches and multipletrunks. Juniper is the only tree in the area, though ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa)grows downslope near the banks of Calamity Creek. The understory is open and consistsof sagebrush (Artemisia spp), bitter brush (Purshia spp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp)and rabbit brush (Crysothamnus spp) with native and non -native grasses. Cattle grazein the area. Some trees have fire scars or cut limbs, and there are a few stumps.Many trees have heartrot inward from the early to middle 1700s. As a footnote, manystone flakes and broken stone artifacts are present, indicating human utilization ofthese bluffs.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSCALAMITY CREEK, OREGON [JUOC]
Chronology 1396 to 1982 (587 years) 29 trees, 49 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 .998 1.000Median .976 .976 .971Mean sensitivity .273 .300 .281
Standard deviation .278 .266 .274
Skewness .482 .400 .476
Kurtosis 3.667 3.710 3.664
Autocorrelation order 1 .232 -.002 .172Partial autocorr. order 2 .131 -.014 .137
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.006 -.055 -.060
Variance from autoregression 6.6 pct 5.2 pctError variance .005865 .005141
Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .877
Common interval 1774 to 1981 (208 years) 27 trees, 44 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .442 .533
Between trees (Y variance) .434 .526
Within trees .739 .792
Signal -to -noise ratio 20.72 29.99Agreement with pop. chron. .954 .968
Variance in eigenvector 1 45.31 pct 54.07 pctChron. common interval mean 994 995Chron. common interval st dev .256 .249
73
74
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CALAMITY CREEK. OREGON JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1398 98
9
103
0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 1
1400 89 136 146 125 59 115 86 68 105 87 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 21410 105 84 66 69 86 114 79 153 146 110 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31420 141 150 106 92 87 170 65 121 26 99 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 41430 105 106 89 96 96 124 74 90 97 72 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 41440 120 99 137 113 96 82 91 108 77 82 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 41450 103 115 102 90 80 75 122 117 63 73 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 51460 69 89 104 75 57 99 72 77 61 114 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51470 146 118 93 127 82 41 95 93 108 103 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51480 83 95 120 97 136 113 84 57 75 62 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51490 74 85 92 96 91 107 151 96 83 126 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61500 105 103 62 112 107 98 134 109 121 95 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61510 126 73 93 81 89 59 95 109 49 137 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61520 76 106 89 136 98 107 148 82 81 61 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61530 105 66 28 85 101 149 186 157 144 104 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 81540 67 123 112 109 58 89 87 97 129 87 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81550 98 102 94 112 69 85 129 181 145 118 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 91560 131 99 104 85 181 72 118 111 153 78 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91570 64 60 100 101 136 111 96 141 102 136 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91580 75 77 121 103 75 102 96 142 125 102 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91590 86 93 103 85 48 59 133 172 112 134 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91600 58 114 115 131 118 112 116 122 164 104 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 101610 178 110 115 41 69 94 ,118 156 79 91 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 111620 86 131 94 80 152 97 72 132 89 102 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 111630 105 119 67 172 138 140 124 96 93 107 11 11 11 Il 11 11 11 12 12 121640 135 149 209 86 114 80 85 83 99 109 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 121650 93 51 47 46 62 68 111 45 87 81 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 131660 92 85 84 128 91 89 126 78 93 95 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 141670 111 140 120 76 76 69 104 69 108 100 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141680 91 202 77 82 123 138 101 108 100 113 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 151690 74 86 66 86 135 85 63 97 91 110 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 161700 110 104 117 64 83 62 65 95 73 81 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161710 78 83 79 104 87 113 113 47 88 61 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 181720 82 41 98 84 97 95 83 118 78 48 18 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 201730 102 121 125 105 116 60 84 111 127 136 20 20 20 21 21 21 23 23 23 241740 122 74 85 95 81 114 112 113 108 139 27 28 32 33 33 33 37 37 38 381750 158 110 129 75 83 83 74 91 107 87 39 39 42 42 44 44 44 44 44 441760 143 138 85 111 81 79 144 170 117 130 44 44 44 45 45 45 47 47 47 471770 78 95 104 135 89 132 101 92 92 81 47 47 47 48 49 49 49 49 49 491780 101 138 95 71 96 75 110 96 71 105 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491790 93 133 113 73 59 69 83 64 93 122 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491800 40 96 103 149 56 135 119 81 105 156 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491810 111 119 140 115 141 99 90 106 103 94 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491820 85 67 95 106 71 120 117 97 44 93 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491830 86 48 86 81 72 100 98 80 90 90 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491840 68 106 100 76 64 120 96 84 74 73 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491850 106 155 106 129 82 120 90 76 78 62 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491860 91 122 129 95 136 61 129 85 116 101 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491870 76 89 62 86 80 137 91 148 135 144 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491880 87 103 77 85 136 131 104 98 122 102 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491890 66 115 94 98 166 98 131 102 120 96 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491900 148 120 101 91 113 137 109 104 121 77 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491910 67 87 112 114 127 126 110 57 67 90 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491920 88 154 69 156 27 123 85 132 85 93 49 49 49 49 49 48 48 48 48 481930 115 62 80 79 57 72 93 73 114 67 48 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 46 461940 98 146 136 103 101 107 83 112 106 58 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461950 93 81 82 130 83 69 99 79 75 90 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 451960 86 94 80 119 125 133 103 129 89 120 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451970 122 112 83 100 87 90 97 113 126 87 45 45 45 45 45 44 44 44 44 441980 159 130 92 44 44 43
75
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE HOR Site nò. 4
Site name: HORSE RIDGESpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalieCountry :U.S.A. State :OREGON County:'DESCHUTESAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Horse Ridge, OR 1967,
photo revised 1981Elevation: 1109 -1183 m Latitude: 43° 58'N Longitude: 121° 04'WNo. of trees sampled: 43 No. of core samples: 92Date of collection: JUN 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
The summit of Horse Ridge along U.S. Highway 20 is 33.6 km (21 mi) southeast ofthe city of Bend in central Oregon. The site collection is from five subsitesscattered for 6.4 km (4 mi) along U.S. Highway 20 north of Horse Ridge on a series offlat basalt lava flows and boulder piles. On the bedrock areas soils are very thin,but off the bedrock there are 50 to 100 cm of aeolian sand deposits. Most of thesampled trees are on nearly flat locations. In the sloped areas, the slope does notexceed 10 °, though some trees are on cliffs at the margins of basalt flows. Most ofthe slopes face southwest, south and southeast. The stand is very open and isexclusively western juniper. The'sampled trees range from 5 to 11 m in height and 40 to150 cm in diameter. The understory is also very open and consists of sagebrush(Artemisia spp), rabbit brush (Crysothamnus spp), snake weed (Gutierrezia spp) andnative and non -native grasses. Cattle graze in the area. Most of the standdisturbance is from wood cutting rather than fire. There is a good deal of heartrot inmost junipers inward from the 1730s and 1740s. This site is the lowest in elevationcollected on the project.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSHORSE RIDGE, OREGON (JUOC)Chronology 1281 to 1982 (702 years) 36 trees, 66 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.001Median 1.003 1.009 1.012Mean sensitivity .585 .639 .578Standard deviation .526 .497 .516Skewness .178 .029 .176Kurtosis 2.504 2.661 2.536
Autocorrelation order 1 .307 .002 .275Partial autocorr. order 2 .039 -.069 .021Partial autocorr. order 3 .033 .021 .033
Variance from autoregression 10.2 pct 7.7 pctError variance .011401 .010874Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .954
Common interval 1755 to 1982 (228 years) 33 trees, 55 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .653 .691Between trees (Y variance) .647 .686Within trees .857 .874
Signal -to -noise ratio 60.53 72.26Agreement with pop. chron. .984 .986Variance in eigenvector 1 65.29 pct 69.14 pctChron. common interval mean 1.002 1.005Chron. common interval st dev .458 .434
76
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Figure A3 -1.
ARSTAN chronology for Site 4, horse
Ridge, Oregon, Juniperus
occidentalis.
78
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HORSE RIDGE, OREGON JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1281129013001310
1186757
12310866
152
14136
11987
4178137123
147 15597 11617 85
145 82
154246428
1905279
104
136104137144
112617019
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1320 13 37 93 121 88 120 155 190 101 92 1 1 1
1330 133 78 124 157 145 21 161 250 173 1101340 53 93 133 60 47 93 128 98 107 62 2
1350 74 32 16 18 48 66 114 131 42 185 2
1360 197 111 86 91 34 39 132 205 204 27 2
1370 136 102 39 151 81 117 160 39 98 26 31380 72 47 78 98 59 157 124 227 116 131 31390 31 116 99 90 40 102 101 84 142 9 4
1400 23 213 167 160 201 220 94 18 53 62 4
1410 8 118 172 12 140 103 154 224 125 179 4
1420 197 143 166 200 100 57 55 67 22 75 51430 68 30 41 60 33 64 41 49 122 83 51440 173 195 173 92 23 54 45 125 100 189 51450 155 73 82 88 111 110 189 118 78 150 51460 116 120 109 197 164 59 128 124 59 110 51470 158 68 92 83 109 4 55 38 40 35 51480 15 59 75 142 238 123 82 148 171 96 51490 151 84 100 136 41 114 150 104 99 23 51500 133 17 12 106 147 81 147 73 76 71 7
1510 95 198 151 24 68 16 64 7 12 63 71520 35 30 69 92 120 159 151 114 85 10 71530 140 163 6 113 122 146 212 12 173 176 7
154015501560
1237
230
73107118
18713047
154159 .
90
237 10135 69
159 52
29103115
89195103
426898
9423275
888
1570 57 14 49 65 107 88 31 176 119 13 81580 16 23 65 72 45 53 130 197 193 143 91590 115 96 158 63 34 15 145 151 15 205 9 11 11 11 11 11
1600 30 191 173 199 54 101 173 48 193 170 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 13 13
1610 152 161 87 97 78 26 46 159 118 54 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14
1620 65 123 4 124 88 151 23 54 85 31 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1630 91 44 4 120 70 107 56 132 125 64 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1640 93 191 149 141 81 23 17 65 114 123 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1650 152 64 4 20 02 103 131 65 102 112 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 161660 74 123 103 25 00 203 264 157 179 71 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
1670 42 99 123 170 14 110 70 97 59 57 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161680 62 100 146 168 80 131 62 103 73 110 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15
1690 64 74 90 106 39 10 79 111 31 48 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 17 171700 144 178 163 24 06 58 39 118 54 117 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
1710 51 86 67 149 46 121 114 27 89 116 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19
1720 35 14 77 30 82 70 122 202 140 28 19 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 221730 135 39 147 144 113 18 23 39 81 50 23 23 23 23 23 23 25 27 28 281740 92 76 132 172 96 155 154 173 148 108 28 29 29 32 34 41 46 50 50 521750 149 137 113 72 105 72 70 71 63 45 55 56 56 58 59 60 60 60 60 601760 71 145 80 80 62 84 103 118 148 155 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 601770 33 132 113 165 172 140 103 113 52 88 60 60 60 61 61 61 62 62 62 631780 76 133 119 15 141 106 113 103 62 173 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 631790 152 126 108 11 21 72 125 141 167 130 63 63 63 63 63 63 64 64 64 641800 1 88 130 130 116 152 159 41 103 128 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641810 137 131 110 69 42 101 96 77 138 115 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641820 120 78 75 97 71 132 148 129 34 12 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641830 138 90 136 23 63 153 154 65 59 103 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641840 87 92 111 71 55 72 83 58 67 57 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641850 62 115 133 198 141 95 90 95 43 101 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641860 93 97 131 175 67 105 184 143 147 35 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641870 95 49 91 162 50 81 126 104 107 127 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641880 62 122 115 126 136 158 124 76 75 94 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641890 88 134 63 126 168 120 127 134 42 117 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641900 87 177 143 163 186 159 97 111 136 113 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641910 149 124 147 97 52 81 131 65 12 72 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 62 621920 96 122 83 104 32 138 26 109 92 47 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 621930 64 13 66 15 12 55 28 52 78 9 62 62 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 61
1940 65 32 115 141 45 108 98 23 155 101 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61
1950 135 173 112 149 155 13 136 135 127 13 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61
1960 94 68 137 154 59 181 96 161 0 142 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 601970 165 154 100 72 123 42 21 105 162 121 60 60 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 591980 171 135 178 59 59 59
79
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE FRE Site no. 5
Site name: FREDERICK BUTTESpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: DESCHUTES and LAKE.
Administration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 1:250,000 Crescent City, OR 1955, revised 1970Elevation: 1433 -1554 m Latitude: 43° 35'N Longitude: 120° 27'WNo. of trees sampled: 50 No. of core samples: 125Date of collection: JUN 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
This site is in central Oregon 96 km (60 mi) southeast of the city of Bend. It
consists of 14 subsites scattered along a county road from 4.8 km (3 mi) south of U.S.Highway 20 to the north edge of Christmas Valley, 28.8 km (18 mi) south of U.S. Highway20. Frederick Butte is the midpoint along this sampling transect. All but one subsiteare on very low flat basalt lava flow benches in 10 to 20 cm of aeolian sandy soil.Some of the trees are off the basalt bedrock benches in deeper (10 to 50 cm) aeoliansand. The exception is at the 960 Ranch in Christmas Valley, in deep (100 to 200 cm)aeolian /alluvial sand. The trees sampled here are very large, but dating reveals theyare not as old as trees from other subsites. Of the subsites only one area hadappreciable slope (4° to 6° to the southeast). All other subsites are on flat ground.The western juniper stands are open with occasional fairly dense clusters around basaltbedrock outcrops. All the juniper is short (4 to 9 m) but fairly large in diameter (50to 225 cm). Many trees have large basal branches and multiple trunks.. The understoryis open sagebrush (Artemisia spp), buck brush (Ceanothus app) and native and non -nativegrasses. There is little evidence of forest fires; wood cutting and limbing are themajor stand disturbance. Cattle also graze in the area. The oldest dated tree forthis project has an inside date of A.D. 1096. Though most of the trees are probablyquite old, heart -rot inward from the 1730s and 1740s causes a major problem inobtaining old cores. Included in this collection are five trees from Glass Buttes,33.6 km (21 mi) east southeast of Frederick Butte. The setting on the south side ofClass Buttes is similar, but the flat lava flow bedrock has a great deal of obsidian(volcanic glass).
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSFREDERICK BUTTE, OREGON [JUOC)Chronology 1097 to 1982 (886 years) 32 trees, 76 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 .999Median .993 1.005 1.002Mean sensitivity .457 .491 .456Standard deviation .414 .403 .418Skewness .210 .181 .275Kurtosis 3.166 3.283 3.404
Autocorrelation order 1 .195 -.037 .226Partial autocorr. order 2 .040 -.034 .134Partial autocorr. order 3 .047 -.023 -.062
Variance from autoregression 4.2 pct 6.3 pctError variance .006235 .005486Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .880
Common interval 1750 to 1982 (233 years) 29 trees, 53 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .553 .614Between trees (Y variance) .543 .605Within trees .844 .871
Signal -to -noise ratio 34.44 44.34Agreement with pop. chron. .972 .978Variance in eigenvector 1 55.49 pct 61.45 pctChron. common interval mean .996 .998Chron. common interval st dev .359 .338
30
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FREDERICK BUTTE. OREGON JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
097 123 100 18100 86 149 189 157 81 174 145 159 118 97 1 1 1 1 1
110 87 109 109 107 160 95 81 109 93 96 1 1 1 1 1
120 123 124 89 154 85 82 86 198 169 144 1 1 1 1 1
130 77 42 22 154 155 48 138 168 165 95 1 1 l 1 1
140 10 40 83 82 36 7 4 74 32 110 1 1 l 1 1
150 69 132 126 102 42 13 37 60 65 104 1 1 1 1 1
160 107 37 106 48 37 63 82 97 58 110 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2170 28 42 64 104 11 118 69 129 166 119 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2180 126 98 142 11 74 7 82 45 130 65 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2190 118 58 133 93 66 145 123 130 56 62 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2200 104 132 186 129 146 133 49 122 97 159 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2210 63 105 84 44 222 149 231 40 138 136 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2220 187 124 125 61 148 116 98 140 132 135 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3230 122 68 123 112 123 144 17 78 82 67 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3240 186 219 114 182 101 18 161 150 177 129 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4250 67 66 122 108 70 135 113 102 54 148 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4260 58 61 127 101 54 95 85 68 75 57 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4270 120 23 41 22 111 79 121 119 100 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4280 90 100 115 92 111 37 74 135 129 122 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4290 117 155 90 74 19 73 16 58 78 40 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5300 37 74 106 143 77 190 124 48 240 98 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5310 272 196 103 70 111 58 28 52 152 126 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5320 75 220 241 202 85 152 214 253 87 82 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5330 189 122 138 95 89 2 140 128 192 174 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5340 78 180 92 104 29 123 131 135 85 123 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6350 92 25 20 64 17 72 112 107 16 107 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7360 97 57 59 73 20 113 154 159 149 64 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7370 44 50 72 91 55 64 99 89 103 16 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8380 100 51 76 92 68 111 94 146 94 86 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8390 26 120 69 94 108 107 131 117 97 73 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9400 78 157 131 140 122 155 77 47 28 43 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10410 37 140 144 47 106 77 124 118 82 71 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10420 113 121 157 138 108 52 101 84 19 123 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10430 116 146 52 126 77 134 100 97 149 58 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10440 192 155 226 133 63 148 93 145 122 158 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10450 130 135 85 110 41 86 96 84 77 74 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13460 70 94 114 131 102 60 102 109 84 126 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13470 153 92 139 108 110 32 61 55 77 64 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13480 49 91 69 104 162 116 169 119 138 84 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13490 134 96 99 123 78 100 124 88 112 63 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13500 79 66 59 147 134 95 117 96 87 62 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14510 68 131 145 83 104 51 77 35 42 138 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14520 64 103 129 196 130 123 105 98 72 23 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14530 127 83 19 98 101 121 137 79 134 153 14 14 14 14 15 15 16 17 17 17540 52 62 104 95 127 89 82 84 58 80 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17550 35 129 110 146 55 78 98 173 129 168 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17560 158 83 80 82 165 59 129 107 137 90 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17570 97 29 66 149 139 76 63 129 95 55 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18580 11 77 81 111 94 116 105 154 115 97 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18590 71 66 95 33 28 41 115 128 58 188 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18600 44 144 129 158 161 118 153 59 138 102 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19610 106 129 104 94 80 77 55 145 62 68 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19620 60 141 80 125 158 135 57 125 65 50 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19630 101 86 31 168 165 162 88 136 127 63 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18640 89 161 162 136 110 57 58 84 101 47 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 15 15650 120 60 40 57 85 63 172 71 113 64 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 15660 34 151 91 81 91 126 116 58 113 122 15 15 15 14 12 12 12 13 13 13670 84 113 111 102 97 112 94 99 96 24 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14680 83 98 113 143 149 100 33 121 81 122 14 14 14 16 16 16 17 17 18 18690 103 47 106 127 121 36 117 108 45 78 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19700 145 175 183 62 153 66 57 101 58 121 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20710 110 119 115 161 58 115 137 64 96 79 20 20 20 22 23 25 25 27 27 28720 63 18 73 62 79 118 107 189 112 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30730 143 85 112 71 138 57 53 53 97 86 32 35 35 35 37 37 39 41 44 44740 116 73 92 106 119 162 149 133 112 103 44 45 48 49 52 56 57 58 58 58750 124 62 96 95 113 60 51 67 85 61 59 59 59 59 59 59 58 59 59 59760 66 136 99 115 63 57 103 109 143 147 59 59 60 60 60 61 61 61 61 63770 67 108 105 145 113 104 43 71 48 103 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 64 64 64780 87 134 117 62 117 75 102 82 68 130 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 65 65790 152 160 95 43 31 53 117 122 148 145 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65800 8 172 139 154 130 114 131 88 115 132 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65810 124 152 135 91 90 104 113 100 138 115 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
83
FREDERICK BUTTE, OREGON JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1820 116 93 62 112 118 172 145 118 86 15 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651830 120 82 102 37 49 120 100 74 93 70 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651840 89 41 106 43 75 73 76 100 74 102 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651850 115 97 78 136 101 88 84 115 73 84 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651860 74 124 151 102 66 103 157 131 134 70 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651870 84 54 89 105 91 68 118 144 121 116 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651880 68 121 67 93 108 147 98 89 72 75 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651890 100 146 108 116 162 76 73 102 70 111 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651900 107 125 127 90 163 130 163 152 95 102 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651910 87 112 89 126 166 107 156 64 18 85 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651920 93 154 88 135 45 155 39 148 78 35 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 651930 45 18 88 41 24 58 57 64 99 54 65 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 63 631940 107 105 139 138 102 101 107 60 119 77 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 621950 98 113 116 144 138 29 150 96 94 40 62 62 62 61 61 61 61 60 60 601960 100 72 83 128 79 162 121 138 44 127 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 59 59 591970 121 113 88 55 126 76 81 75 190 102 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 591980 142 124 133 59 59 59
84
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE LOS Site no. 6
Site name: LOST FORESTSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: LAKEAdministration: LOST FOREST RESEARCH NATURAL AREAMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Moonlight Butte, OR 1981
and Sandrock, OR 1981Elevation: 1364 -1384 m Latitude: 43 ° 22'N Longitude: 120° 18'WNo. of trees sampled: PIPO 23 No. of core samples: PIPO 54
JUOC 3 JUOC 4
Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
This collection comes from an unusual ponderosa pine forest in central Oregon.According to information posted at the north entrance to Lost Forest Research NaturalArea, it is 64 km (40 mi) from any other pine forest. Access is either 46.4 km (29 mi)north -northwest from U.S. Highway 20 along an unpaved county road, or from anunnumbered county road 16 km (10 mi) to the south that runs between the village ofChristmas Valley and U.S. Highway 395. The site collection consists of five subsitesscattered over 4.8 km (3 mi) along the road through the Lost Forest Research NaturalArea. The subsite areas are nearly identical in appearance: flat to slightly slopedwith 100 to 2.00 cm of aeolian sand in nearly stabilized dunes deposited on and aroundbedrock of igneous flows and rock piles. The sampled ponderosa pine range from 6 to 19m in height and 25 to 128 cm in diameter in fairly open stands and isolated trees.Western juniper is present in very limited numbers. The open understory consists oftall sagebrush (Artemisia spp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp) and native and non -nativegrasses. There is evidence of forest fires and extensive cutting of larger trees. Thepines do not suffer from heartrot as do the junipers.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLOST FOREST, OREGON [PIPO]Chronology 1459 to 1982 (524 years) 23 trees, 48 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 .996Median 1.010 1.013 .991Mean sensitivity .300 .337 .299Standard deviation .379 .293 .392Skewness -.003 -.199 .003Kurtosis 2.660 2.932 2.634
Autocorrelation order 1 .612 .063 .658Partial autocorr. order 2 .121 -.002 .131Partial autocorr. order 3 -.004 .039 -.009
Variance from autoregression 38.9 pct 45.3 pctError variance .004355 .005422Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.245
Common interval 1624 to 1982 (359 years) 14 trees, 25 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .601 .550Between trees (Y variance) .588 .540Within trees .813 .734
Signal -to -noise ratio 20.01 16.41Agreement with pop. chron. .952 .943Variance in eigenvector 1 61.19 pct 56.56 pctChron. common interval mean .986 .997Chron. common interval st dev .376 .288
85
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LOST FOREST. OREGON PINUS PONDEROSA
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1459 100 1
1460 87 97 65 86 137 174 141 77 114 131 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1470 104 174 148 116 156 100 87 93 94 65 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 31480 68 52 47 60 123 159 199 134 119 144 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 41490 43 52 40 73 77 84 125 132 93 117 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 61500 85 96 96 120 112 110 162 150 140 122 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1510 89 156 137 122 122 113 75 57 37 63 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91520 76 79 105 142 146 145 120 123 156 80 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91530 115 97 35 75 88 75 132 107 132 150 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 101540 94 85 133 143 129 128 100 110 90 103 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
1550 23 43 57 86 53 66 83 111 129 160 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
1560 154 140 118 106 130 78 89 119 131 105 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 14 141570 89 63 57 84 91 73 41 62 80 62 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141580 26 19 65 85 84 83 101 127 165 154 14 14 14 14 16 17 18 18 18 191590 130 104 161 63 46 20 85 93 102 131 19 19 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 231600 72 140 148 132 153 141 166 82 133 132 23 23 23 24 25 25 25 26 26 261610 152 165 158 176 109 121 66 117 91 50 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 271620 9 21 51 61 68 100 69 93 57 60 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 281630 50 75 31 98 111 143 96 109 109 69 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 281640 117 177 172 148 138 90 82 116 129 91 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 29 29 291650 92 38 20 20 35 35 42 22 48 21 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291660 7 26 51 70 89 73 96 45 83 121 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 301670 112 128 146 157 149 155 118 107 86 73 30 30 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 301680 41 89 69 95 126 102 64 111 113 146 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301690 154 78 91 102 111 63 97 135 71 96 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 311700 108 126 189 76 141 131 146 129 81 144 31 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 321710 149 113 139 169 116 186 172 84 92 97 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 321720 91 25 57 76 70 109 117 143 113 35 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 331730 81 77 117 121 130 86 55 59 60 65 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 341740 95 90 79 120 115 163 164 169 137 202 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 36 361750 175 117 147 123 118 141 44 42 68 35 36 36 36 36 36 37 38 38 38 381760 48 84 82 91 99 89 68 68 80 83 38 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 391770 66 87 122 123 140 178 109 85 82 121 39 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 40 401780 109 96 109 77 104 100 102 87 71 120 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 411790 106 158 154 86 67 39 60 94 116 149 42 42 42 42 42 44 44 44 44 441800 73 132 125 143 100 120 114 84 98 123 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 451810 115 118 108 81 106 91 93 90 121 102 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 461820 106 142 95 102 135 156 167 146 171 82 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461830 127 102 142 74 58 83 110 107 111 72 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461840 58 27 48 19 58 79 57 65 44 41 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 471850 54 78 74 106 110 102 49 30 22 38 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471860 56 83 70 58 46 55 98 119 123 93 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471870 107 70 88 91 99 100 102 137 141 160 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471880 129 160 94 90 80 123 79 78 100 72 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471890 64 118 104 128 181 120 111 135 73 81 47 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461900 93 83 98 93 130 134 123 190 192 181 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461910 152 149 157 176 171 144 184 137 75 95 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461920 83 115 70 100 67 88 63 82 100 36 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461930 51 2 33 1 29 13 15 33 50 28 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461940 47 59 83 103 113 112 98 82 106 71 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461950 79 105 103 82 110 74 129 148 121 85 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461960 123 139 107 127 115 134 162 133 55 157 46 46 46 46 46 45 45 45 45 451970 111 112 133 58 72 60 67 77 98 129 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451980 148 156 158 45 45 45
Ú/
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE LIT Site no. 7
Site name: LITTLE JUNIPER MOUNTAINSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: HARNEYAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 1:250,000 Burns, OR 1955, revised 1970Elevation: 1524 -1768 m Latitude: 43° 08'N Longitude: 119° 52'WNo. of trees sampled: 49 No. of core samples: 97Date of collection: JUN 1983 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, WXD
Site description:
Little Juniper Mountain is 9.6 km (6 mi) east of U.S. Highway 395 along a gravelcounty loop road in southeastern Oregon. It is 52.8 km (33 mi) southwest of theintersection of U.S. Highway 395 and U.S. Highway 20. The collection comes from asingle location west of and paralleling the gravel road and southeast of Little JuniperMountain 1.6 km (1 mi). The sampled trees are on flat low igneous rhyolite and weldedtuff benches with minimal soil accumulation, and in fairly flat colluvium 20 to 40 cmthick. Slope is from 2° to 10 °. Some trees are at short dropoffs at the margins ofthe benches. The site faces southeast to northeast. The stand is exclusively westernjuniper of all age classes. The sampled trees range from 4 to 10 m in height and 39 to129 cm in diameter. The understory is open with sagebrush (Artemisia spp) and rabbitbrush (Chrysothamnus spp) dominating along with native and non -native grasses. Fires,wood cutting and limbing have taken a toll on some trees and contribute to standdisturbance. These juniper exhibit pronounced heartrot inward from the 1730s and1740s. A collection of 14 cores from 8 trees in a very similar setting at JuniperMountain, 35.2 km (22 mi) south of Little Juniper Mountain, were added to thiscollection.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLITTLE JUNIPER MOUNTAIN, OREGON [JUOC]Chronology 1377 to 1982 (606 years) 35 trees, 66 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 5) ARSTANMean 1.000 .991 .998Median 1.005 1.006 .995Mean sensitivity .427 .451 .421Standard deviation .393 .367 .401Skewness .183 -.091 .198Kurtosis 3.276 2.702 3.153
Autocorrelation order 1 .235 -.005 .316Partial autocorr. order 2 .118 -.048 .107Partial autocorr. order 3 .005 .002 -.089
Variance from autoregression 6.1 pct 11.2 pctError variance .009923 .007472Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .753
Common interval 1781 to 1982 (202 years) 34 trees, 57 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .656 .702Between trees (Y variance) .652 .699Within trees .828 .848
Signal -to -noise ratio 63.73 78.98Agreement with pop. chron. .985 .987Variance in eigenvector 1 65.59 pct 70.20 pctChron. common interval mean 1.004 .997Chron. common interval st dev .371 .343
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LITTLE JUNIPER MOUNTAIN. OREGON
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5
13781380 87 97 128 101 90 1041390 42 68 40 I04 123 1221400 159 270 199 180 140 1621410 74 144 168 107 66 731420 124 141 131 77 83 801430 96 150 102 76 72 1021440 93 105 137 173 95 1321450 143 174 106 117 69 621460 85 119 185 190 159 461470 152 77 85 42 96 531480 103 68 44 66 123 411490 91 112 91 162 112 1231500 9 154 125 215 172 571510 60 62 123 89 76 591520 12 97 95 129 135 1331530 Iii 116 37 139 135 1421540 59 36 86 99 121 1211550 67 136 145 143 71 691560 113 48 86 40 130 901570 80 72 53 103 120 721580 22 52 109 125 110 441590 125 48 77 9 27 31
1600 19 145 129 109 137 1151610 118 112 108 79 59 941620 31 111 69 101 192 1921630 111 lil 33 113 136 1761640 124 139 164 113 63 491650 110 86 12 47 64 771660 20 114 92 134 92 781670 68 106 148 96 105 911680 91 Ill 131 140 186 1351690 94 49 41 114 135 451700 143 156 136 61 135 1411710 104 68 93 177 54 1491720 94 36 105 62 83 1071730 86 47 98 68 107 351740 122 96 127 147 131 1641750 Ill 84 82 75 99 1001760 114 120 114 155 88 401770 66 100 121 162 147 1281780 122 120 108 38 106 1031790 126 130 112 20 67 461800 20 126 118 170 87 1451810 118 138 68 69 65 1001820 103 90 72 110 72 1681830 114 89 91 66 61 1411840 94 24 90 12 89 431850 134 157 134 193 164 1201860 126 154 149 46 81 741870 65 56 66 83 81 1151880 83 Ill 72 105 121 2071890 81 161 100 94 149 531900 86 69 96 74 110 1731910 95 100 97 61 112 701920 76 135 74 101 25 1211930 69 8 103 41 20 841940 92 139 161 179 180 1131950 84 110 96 129 93 691960 65 68 80 116 138 1621970 133 178 126 58 76 731980 134 155 123
JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTAL'S
6 7 8 9
122 44104 86 86 71151 112 148 94104 92 83 8844 116 66 4247 97 2 12095 102 122 35166 187 156 18679 88 102 9958 98 72 14441 67 118 64115 107 85 71153 80 126 78107 108 135 7233 79 13 94157 119 146 32134 128 152 20493 89 90 134
102 140 104 111105 113 66 5096 135 124 76109 162 162 134105 138 85 168177 148 197 128107 123 47 2798 123 89 75
119 80 133 1946 82 84 75169 65 149 52110 51 87 8665 75 56 5540 138 95 14467 73 49 11779 113 28 82
153 72 71 63106 137 78 1665 105 76 125155 136 108 13449 50 81 7190 74 143 15649 37 57 114134 109 96 141105 110 82 14595 70 88 129109 92 111 88152 106 100 39119 107 59 9529 95 71 92140 149 62 103129 116 120 8195 144 144 111136 99 92 7667 107 118 117
141 108 127 8994 68 42 7551 117 92 5067 74 108 6773 54 128 86
111 101 139 5983 135 27 12160 80 150 123
0
1
1
1
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ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 1
1 1 1 1 l 1 1
l 1 1 1 1 1 1
l 1 1 1 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 3
3 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 3 3 3 3 3 34 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 44 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 55 5 5 5 5 4 44 4 4 4 4 4 4
4 4 4 4 4 4 4
3 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 3 3
3 3 3 3 3 3 33 3 3 3 3 4 33 3 3 3 3 3 45 5 5 5 5 5 68 8 8 8 8 9 9
11 12 12 12 12 12 12
20 24 28 34 38 40 4046 46 47 47 47 47 4850 51 51 51 52 53 5354 54 54 54 56 56 5759 59 59 60 60 60 6061 61 61 61 61 61 61
61 61 61 61 61 61 61
61 61 61 61 61 61 61
61 61 61 61 61 61 6161 61 61 61 61 61 61
61 61 61 61 61 61 6161 61 61 61 61 61 61
61 61 61 61 61 61 6161 61 61 61 61 61 61
61 61 61 61 61 61 6161 61 61 61 61 61 61
61 61 61 61 61 61 6161 51 61 61 61 61 6!61 61 61 61 61 61 6161 61 61 61 61 61 6161 61 61 61 61 61 6161 61 61 61 61 60 5959 59 59 59 59 59 5959 59 59 59 59 59 59
90
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE STE Site no. 8
Site name: STEENS MOUNTAINSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: OREGON County: HARNEYAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Fish Lake, OR 1968
Tombstone Canyon, OR 1968Roaring Springs, OR 1967
Elevation: 1625 -1686 m Latitude: 42° 40'N Longitude: 118° 55'WNo. of trees sampled: 48 No. of core samples: 102Date of collection: Jun 1983 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA, WXD
Site description:
This site consists of four subsites scattered for 20.8 km (13 mi) along the SteensMountain Loop Road 24 km (15 mi) southeast of the small village of Frenchglen and 17.6km (11 mi) west of Steens Mountain in the southeast corner of Oregon. Access is fromState Highway 205. The closest subsite to Steens Mountain is a fairly flat igneousbasalt lava boulder and cobble field. Soil accumulation is 10 to 20 cm of aeolianmaterials. Two other areas are along the Steens Mountain Loop Road 4.8 km east ofCatlow Rim and 2.4 km (1.5 mi) west of Bald Headed Camp. They are on the upper portionof a set of 30 m high igneous basalt flow benches. To the west away from the benchmargin the land is nearly level (2° to 12 °) east facing slope. Several of the sampledtrees are near the east bench margin which has nearly vertical drops. Soil here is athin aeolian deposit. In most areas the stands of western juniper are open thoughthere is clustering of trees near the breaks in slope. Western juniper is the onlytree in the area. Other species include sagebrush (Artemisia spp), rabbit brush(Crysothamnus spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp), wild onion (Allium spp) and native and non-native grasses. According to a BLM representative in Burns, Oregon, nearly 75 percentof Steens Mountain, including Catlow Rim, has been logged. There is evidence of forestfires, and in the early and middle 20th century the land was heavily grazed by sheep.The sampled junipers range from 3 to 10 m in height and 38 to 130 cm in diameter, andexhibit heartrot inward from the 1730s and 1740s.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSTEENS MOUNTAIN, OREGON (JUOC)Chronology 1501 to 1982 (482 years) 25 trees, 50 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.001 .999Median 1.018 1.018 1.008Mean sensitivity .253 .280 .253Standard deviation .264 .241 .246Skewness -.196 .013 -.056Kurtosis 3.508 3.295 3.225
Autocorrelation order 1 .350 -.006 .213
Partial autocorr. order 2 .125 -.045 .062Partial autocorr. order 3 .019 -.009 -.009
Variance from autoregression 12.5 pct 4.3 pctError variance .003548 .002542Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .716
Common interval 1785 to 1982 (198 years) 25 trees, 48 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .452 .532Between trees (Y variance) .435 .514
Within trees .751 .821
Signal -to -noise ratio 19.25 26.47Agreement with pop. chron. .951 .964
Variance in eigenvector 1 45.99 pct 53.48 pctChron. common interval mean 1.002 1.001Chron. common interval st dev .217 .213
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STEENS MOUNTAIN, OREGON JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1502 88 123 112 117 106 93 102 91 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1510 97 90 102 108 90 80 52 109 77 98 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
1520 101 98 79 110 115 144 82 68 78 42 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1530 92 85 40 78 97 126 138 127 132 141 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1540 60 79 112 107 139 92 92 117 140 102 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1550 106 107 105 109 75 90 120 154 84 86 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1560 91 95 100 68 127 72 94 90 111 92 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1570 98 87 79 111 140 118 94 117 103 103 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1580 53 99 111 113 91 108 137 123 113 92 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1590 112 94 94 46 74 91 126 123 125 107 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 7
1600 35 104 99 93 103 115 130 84 141 84 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1610 143 108 137 104 82 108 126 133 51 101 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1620 76 142 129 81 161 125 68 86 97 109 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
1630 60 78 25 138 146 128 109 79 93 75 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10
1640 103 100 117 100 64 56 108 82 113 106 10 10 10 10 10 IO 10 10 10 10
1650 124 100 64 109 132 66 98 51 82 78 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
1660 63 127 87 100 75 70 124 109 107 115 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11
1670 132 132 155 98 145 111 116 96 139 111 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1680 78 179 133 107 151 146 95 152 121 126 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 15
1690 97 108 29 35 68 54 47 56 59 73 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1700 109 106 114 81 114 80 63 113 63 80 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16
1710 98 66 81 140 97 106 118 52 50 77 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
1720 85 67 113 112 91 103 107 113 71 71 16 16 16 16 16 16 18 18 18 19
1730 105 103 107 108 95 41 106 159 155 86 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21
1740 87 60 67 123 75 108 154 139 95 157 22 24 24 26 26 27 27 28 28 29
1750 141 128 101 106 101 103 85 75 103 89 32 32 32 33 34 34 36 36 37 38
1760 120 142 102 113 70 91 125 109 112 84 39 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 42 42
1770 104 98 95 108 88 97 108 88 73 75 42 42 42 43 45 46 46 46 46 47
1780 123 86 82 69 122 88 110 86 71 111 47 47 47 48 48 50 50 50 50 50
1790 97 117 126 80 71 97 92 63 85 123 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
1800 88 113 106 159 81 128 98 74 89 119 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
1810 97 113 108 72 126 110 114 69 108 89 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
1820 94 101 80 120 120 133 109 94 90 114 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
1830 109 63 88 78 69 149 106 99 95 92 50 50 50 SO 50 50 50 50 50 50
1840 86 88 74 56 87 101 91 81 105 62 50 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
1850 104 125 90 129 112 120 105 100 84 56 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
1860 116 142 114 51 127 76 125 116 113 114 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
1870 110 109 83 98 91 106 98 131 112 116 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
1880 80 114 90 105 139 165 120 99 96 102 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
1890 80 110 89 63 130 82 86 113 106 95 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1900 130 91 123 90 93 111 111 96 90 84 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1910 71 81 102 121 129 126 116 64 62 79 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1920 111 133 82 106 66 138 112 115 89 108 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1930 99 44 96 62 107 104 93 83 98 87 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1940 77 144 131 129 130 120 102 104 115 71 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1950 99 105 97 111 105 74 102 100 96 58 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1960 82 80 106 117 121 113 80 99 52 109 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1970 121 95 82 86 85 114 104 81 114 116 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1980 137 135 94 48 48 48
93
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE GRA Site no. 9
Site name: GRASSHOPPER TRAILSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentelisCountry: U.S.A. State: IDAHO County: OWYHEEAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Pleasant Valley, ID 1973Elevation: 1689 -1713m Latitude: 42° 3'N Longitude: 116° 48'WNo. of trees sampled: 49 No. of core samples: 106Date of collection: JUL 1985 Collectors: RLH, RKA, VCK, CJE
Site description:
This is a western juniper site in southwestern Idaho in the south end of theOwyhee Mountains if km (5 mi) south of the North Fork of the Owyhee River. Access isthrough the town of Grand View 78 km (52 mi) to the northeast along a gravel roadidentified as the Mudflat -Deep Creek Road. There are three subsite areas: the majorityof the collection are at,the subsite along a jeep track called Grasshopper Trail 3.2 km(2 mi) south of the Deep Creek Road. The trees are growing in the bedrock of a seriesof low gently sloped (2° to 8 °) benches with occasional short cliffs of igneousrhyolite. These benches have 10 to 20 cm of soil. In the drainages there is moresoil, up to 100 cm or more. The slopes generally face south and. southeast. Thesampled trees range from 2.5 to 19 m in height and 25 to 200 cm in diameter. The standis open with a few locations having clusters of juniper. Juniper is: the only tree inthe site, although curlleaf mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus.latifoliva) is nearly bigenough to be considered a tree in this area. Additional species are the sagebrush( Artemisia spp), bitter brush (Purshia spp), some buckwheats (Eriogonum spp), wildonions (Allium spp)., composites and grasses.. The site contains stumps and limbed treesand also shows signs of fires. Historic period: hunting camps are present as well asprehistoric artifacts. of chert.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS'GRASSHOPPER TRAIL, IDAHO [JUOCJChronology 1492 to 1984 (493 years)
Chronology type STNDRD
30 trees, 61 radii
RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.001 1.000Median .974 .979 .983Mean sensitivity .270 .294 .276Standard deviation .278 .262 .266Skewness .372 .326 .407Kurtosis 3.249 3.174 3.285
Autocorrelation order 1 .268 -.002 .157Partial autocorr. order 2 .122 -.004 .093Partial autocorr. order 3 .034 -.021 -.032
Variance from autoregression 9.2 pct 3.5 pctError variance .004862 .002842Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .585
Common interval 1769 to 1976 (208 years) 26 trees, 43 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .477 .596Between trees (Y variance) .470 .591Within trees .739 .800
Signal -to -noise ratio 23.07 37.52Agreement with pop. chron. .958 .974Variance in eigenvector 1 48.71 pct 60.20 pctChron. common interval mean .988 .992Chron. common interval st dev .249 .244
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GRASSHOPPER TRAIL. IDAHO JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTAL'S
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 l 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1494 130 75 135 73 92 71 4 4 4 4 4 41500 94 120 93 104 109 60 134 88 105 95 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51510 73 83 64 64 88 56 105 100 68 146 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71520 112 126 63 83 81 106 109 69 84 77 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71530 93 68 62 61 73 125 144 128 153 191 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71540 101 103 100 84 118 119 119 87 166 125 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91550 114 98 119 89 53 81 95 162 119 97 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91560 83 87 86 45 135 47 89 73 114 80 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91570 70 77 83 71 83 99 96 125 114 107 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101580 88 85 119 171 73 113 119 128 139 95 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 101590 88 72 60 70 63 54 94 108 121 138 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 111600 47 81 88 123 129 96 130 109 193 107 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 101610 135 119 101 88 91 109 130 122 52 104 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 111620 74 126 84 77 143 124 67 136 104 92 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 15 151630 95 92 50 112 111 121 114 69 118 110 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 15 171640 155 114 190 118 85 50 131 79 98 118 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 171650 143 77 66 59 93 82 131 37 77 90 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 161660 111 124 87 112 89 96 141 83 100 120 16 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 181670 132 175 144 96 120 108 80 72 66 83 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 191680 93 112 104 104 145 121 135 117 107 97 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 211690 61 85 80 108 138 107 74 85 116 111 21 22 22 22 22 24 24 24 25 251700 112 119 105 59 104 106 101 85 71 81 26 26 27 28 28 29 30 30 30 301710 129 99 76 103 84 92 100 54 38 93 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 34 341720 112 96 89 102 101 81 84 140 69 70 35 35 36 36 35 36 36 36 36 391730 99 92 120 92 81 46 121 128 132 86 39 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 42 421740 119 72 47 86 64 129 128 107 91 169 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 44 441750 142 105 112 100 88 116 82 105 93 108 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 46 47 481760 140 143 77 78 77 88 140 144 139 111 49 50 50 50 50 51 51 51 51 521770 94 100 90 102 64 124 92 63 69 79 52 52 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531780 137 97 66 69 115 101 129 104 70 138 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 54 54 551790 93 112 144 66 77 82 91 75 90 102 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 561800 106 94 98 169 60 143 115 49 90 135 56 56 56 56 57 57 57 57 57 571810 112 128 100 73 91 77 133 84 139 96 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571820 107 95 89 80 118 138 122 98 94 104 57 57 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 541830 96 42 108 80 78 109 105 103 95 128 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 541840 70 99 57 65 76 119 71 80 92 71 54 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531850 66 85 69 107 84 91 84 99 70 60 53 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 521860 100 127 101 88 125 73 131 94 156 126 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 521870 104 83 84 118 83 110 116 152 130 157 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 521880 73 116 119 126 157 158 95 100 115 80 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 521890 85 125 99 62 126 98 103 102 116 93 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 521900 132 93 108 71 90 151 128 105 138 75 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 511910 72 108 86 106 126 119 107 64 90 79 51 51 51 51 51 50 50 50 50 501920 83 143 86 144 48 117 113 96 80 92 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 49 49 491930 97 69 100 59 94 99 75 50 101 71 49 49 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 481940 100 124 83 99 88 105 74 85 115 89 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 481950 83 101 109 135 73 74 112 114 118 95 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 481960 90 79 112 151 106 121 73 110 75 92 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 481970 111 119 125 77 74 95 95 123 109 93 48 48 47 47 47 47 47 44 44 441980 149 138 66 127 131 44 43 43 42 41
96
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE JAR Site no. 10
Site name: JARBIDGE CANYONSpecies collected: ROCKY MOUNTAIN JUNIPER, Juniperus scopulorumCountry: U.S.A. State: NEVADA County: ELKOAdministration: HUMBOLDT NATIONAL FOREST and BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Jarbidge, NV -ID 1945Elevation: 1753 -1951 m Latitude: 41° 56'N Longitude: 115° 25'W
No. of trees sampled: 38 No. of core samples: 83Date of collection: JUL 1935 Collectors: RLH, RKA, VCK, CJE
Site description:
The old mining town of Jarbidge is in northeast Nevada 16 km (10 mi) south of theIdaho -Nevada border. The Rocky Mountain juniper site consists of five subsite areasalong the high benches above the Jarbidge River north of the town for 12.8 km (8 mi),on very steep (40° to 60 °) west- facing slopes with several trees at the edges of highcliffs. Bedrock is igneous rhyolite. Soil is almost nonexistent as the very steepslopes descend in a series of benches 230 m from the upper rim to the canyon floor ofthe Jarbidge River. The stands in most of the subsite areas tend to be open, althoughthere is clustering around certain bedrock situations such as the heads of colluvialboulder landslide chutes. The sampled trees range from 3 to 9 m in height and 25 to 98cm in diameter. Rocky Mountain juniper is the only tree in the area, though curlleafmountain mahogany (Cercocarpus latifolius) grows nearly to tree size here. Othervegetation includes sagebrush (Artemisia spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp), wild rose (Rosaspp), raspberry (Rubus spp), many wild flowers and grasses. Being close to a boomingmining town made the trees vulnerable to disturbance. Even though the slopes are verysteep, there are many stumps and limbed trees, and some trees exhibit fire scars.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSJARBIDGE CANYON, IDAHO [JUSC]Chronology 1334 to 1984 (651 years) 21 trees, 42 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .992 1.001Median .989 1.003 .992
Mean sensitivity .269 .251 .263
Standard deviation .276 .215 .267
Skewness .541 -.155 .444
Kurtosis 4.938 3.665 4.522
Autocorrelation order 1 .282 .003 .250Partial autocorr. order 2 .169 -.010 .129
Partial autocorr. order 3 .046 -.075 .010
Variance from autoregression 4.7 pct 4.1 pct
Error variance .006950 .005032Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN / STNDRD) .724
Common interval 1764 to 1984 (221 years) 18 trees, 33 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .413 .455Between trees (Y variance) .400 .442Within trees .665 .707
Signal -to -noise ratio 12.01 14.25Agreement with pop. chron. .923 .934
Variance in eigenvector 1 43.39 pct 47.10 pctChron. common interval mean .985 .992
Chron. common interval st dev .218 .204
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JARBIDGE CANTON. NEVADA JUNIPERUS SCOPULORUM
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1335 116 122 104 147 116 1 1 1 1 1
1340 136 167 203 228 165 128 151 190 162 155 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1350 45 147 150 115 143 92 54 160 1 1 5 182 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1
1360 1 1 7 96 55 81 105 68 97 110 141 59 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1370 127 1 1 1 110 166 157 194 124 62 91 149 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1380 99 59 52 56 89 134 119 159 120 77 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1390 109 51 113 42 148 52 126 71 84 73 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1400 125 75 44 43 129 178 63 54 151 135 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1410 89 89 149 90 96 105 78 110 146 40 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1420 137 128 80 93 47 68 85 143 93 116 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1430 63 58 44 25 37 102 75 51 77 93 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1440 105 139 100 141 81 99 84 146 180 128 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1450 67 91 97 107 120 86 89 86 109 101 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5
1460 70 88 113 106 93 108 102 115 81 136 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
1470 113 94 107 105 63 62 136 98 85 49 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
1480 91 88 81 80 87 72 111 106 95 81 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
1490 106 107 70 74 77 60 113 72 90 111 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
1500 103 99 64 96 106 91 82 84 78 106 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 91510 92 98 115 88 102 66 92 92 66 114 10 10 10 10 II 11 11 11 11 11
1520 91 98 87 83 99 109 98 95 110 111 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
1530 89 88 69 60 73 83 108 103 110 137 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1540 110 124 80 85 109 83 103 56 113 103 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
1550 105 107 114 88 48 97 97 119 130 106 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
1560 114 116 107 92 152 71 110 89 106 98 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
1570 54 86 106 91 108 133 86 130 96 76 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14
1580 31 88 96 110 71 104 128 125 128 120 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1590 102 131 92 78 115 64 130 111 119 155 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
1600 88 90 74 84 115 114 136 85 158 86 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17
1610 130 114 117 113 96 127 129 110 90 95 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 201620 110 116 96 95 137 118 53 110 74 92 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1630 84 86 31 127 99 116 12! 86 120 92 21 21 21 22 22 22 21 21 21 21
1640 143 124 172 101 108 56 111 73 94 91 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 23 231650 149 102 120 71 74 73 84 73 89 83 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 251660 104 110 64 87 113 99 107 88 78 103 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 251670 113 115 107 86 119 108 89 72 112 116 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 251680 90 114 91 105 132 127 109 98 91 103 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
1690 98 118 143 138 143 86 87 74 90 121 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
1700 95 95 107 78 99 117 76 95 49 79 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 261710 89 111 75 113 85 96 113 37 71 93 26 27 27 27 28 28 28 30 30 301720 01 84 93 106 110 107 130 160 96 43 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301730 07 87 96 105 93 38 106 116 109 88 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 32
1740 05 76 95 104 70 91 110 96 89 134 32 32 32 32 33 34 34 34 34 341750 15 97 101 81 90 137 77 64 107 97 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 351760 19 164 111 99 79 37 138 103 96 104 35 35 35 35 37 37 37 37 37 371770 15 116 113 104 73 108 118 69 87 85 37 37 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 391780 03 92 69 79 93 76 87 91 72 122 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 38
1790 11 127 150 111 72 96 98 97 60 114 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 371800 03 104 97 147 79 130 93 86 92 105 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
1810 99 113 122 102 100 104 124 87 105 99 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 371820 06 107 91 84 93 101 110 82 104 132 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 371830 16 93 165 101 64 106 95 105 92 99 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
1840 92 115 84 94 83 102 51 87 33 89 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
1850 71 99 76 113 125 118 85 108 112 67 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 371860 103 105 107 67 84 80 106 113 152 144 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 371870 121 117 103 115 96 108 103 133 138 112 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
1880 56 83 90 80 115 142 82 128 106 62 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 371890 98 101 82 80 107 63 77 101 90 84 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
1900 70 93 74 93 91 98 106 120 111 99 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37
1910 108 96 86 116 114 119 104 65 85 94 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 36
1920 84 106 84 106 63 126 87 77 72 83 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
1930 100 60 100 48 76 86 79 71 80 91 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
1940 65 99 88 116 108 135 104 117 109 99 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
1950 82 118 131 97 99 58 80 97 104 92 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36
1960 84 90 130 113 100 119 68 95 108 103 36 36 36 35 34 34 34 34 34 34
1970 125 145 118 109 87 128 111 136 128 107 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
1980 120 119 117 90 118 34 34 34 34 34
100
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE HAG Site no. 11
Site name: HAGER BASIN RESERVOIRSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MODOCAdministration: MODOC NATIONAL FORESTMapreference: USGS 15' series, Steele Swamp, CA /OR 1962Elevation: 1518 -1530 m Latitude: 41° 46'N Longitude: 120° 45'WNo. of trees sampled: 27 No. of core samples: 58Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, KL
Site description:
The site is near the south end of Hager Basin in northeast California, northwest ofthe town of Alturas, southwest of Hager Ranch, 0.8 km (0.5 mi) and 23 km (14.3 mi)north of Big Sage Reservoir. The two subsite areas are just to the west and east ofCrowder Flat Road (Modoc County Road 73). The sampled trees are located on fairly flatto gently west sloping (0° to 8 °) bedrock basalt flows in a series of low shallowbenches. Soil development is minimal, and depth is less than 10 cm except in a fewpockets where aeolian sands and silts have collected. This stand of western juniper isvery open with 10 to 20 m or more between trees. There are many young trees here inaddition to the older ones that were sampled. The sampled trees are from 6 to 12 m inheight and 63 to 140 cm in diameter. The site shows evidence of wood cutting andlimbing, but there does not seem to be much fire damage. Many of the larger trees arehollow and wood rats or pack rats have built nests inside. Cattle also graze at thesite. Western juniper is the only tree form in this area. Sagebrush (Artemisia spp)is a very low shrub, and there is bitter brush (Purshia spp), some wild rose (Rosa spp)and native and non -native grasses.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSHAGER BASIN, CALIFORNIA [JUOC]
Chronology 1310 to 1980 (671 years) 24 trees, 54 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.000Median .984 .994 .989Mean sensitivity .230 .249 .230
Standard deviation .243 .218 .242Skewness .500 .303 .499Kurtosis 4.103 3.263 4.282
Autocorrelation order 1 .270 -.001 .274
Partial autocorr. order 2 .115 -.015 .105
Partial autocorr. order 3 .003 -.070 -.062
Variance from autoregression 10.4 pct 10.5 pctError variance .005807 .003658Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .630
Common interval 1803 to 1980 (178 years) 23 trees, 38 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .432 .505Between trees (Y variance) .423 .498Within trees .687 .701
Signal -to -noise ratio 16.85 22.83Agreement with pop. chron. .944 .958
Variance in eigenvector 1 44.59 pct 51.65 pctChron. common interval mean .987 .995
Chron. common interval st dev .230 .213
101
Figure A3-3. Western juniper of the northern subspecies (occidenta1is), growing on basalt flat at Site 11, Hager Basin, California. The tree being sampled measures 8 m in height and 68 cm in diameter at breast height, and dates
102 from AD 1409.
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HAGER BASIN RESERVOIR. CALIFORNIA JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTAL'S
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1312 103 142 102 131 92 84 73 86 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1320 47 111 91 31 33 163 113 229 99 85 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21330 145 68 174 164 95 69 79 104 75 98 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4
1340 126 128 109 108 92 65 79 83 70 109 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 51350 101 44 100 57 105 63 102 113 96 99 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 71360 88 105 80 109 100 98 109 117 115 94 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 81370 106 82 97 103 149 21 75 110 102 91 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81380 42 43 66 84 90 21 152 113 110 77 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91390 79 78 97 99 128 21 105 80 132 103 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91400 108 89 84 75 129 81 104 100 123 100 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101410 87 116 118 77 125 36 109 120 129 102 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
1420 101 104 89 94 77 10 75 110 47 100 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 121430 116 85 90 80 93 34 62 78 69 54 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 121440 99 87 118 101 108 99 88 107 68 86 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 121450 85 99 90 91 98 86 108 110 93 99 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 121460 93 105 121 104 81 108 71 79 79 109 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 131470 151 97 123 95 89 59 84 97 110 97 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 141480 101 119 95 84 108 136 133 114 123 127 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141490 117 103 84 127 102 72 136 88 92 112 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 131500 72 108 73 130 125 114 110 91 90 102 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 131510 104 143 104 72 75 77 93 82 87 136 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 131520 131 117 93 117 113 115 114 71 96 91 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 121530 127 109 87 74 82 84 105 120 119 144 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 121540 108 56 83 94 78 92 66 76 91 90 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 131550 94 102 122 107 83 79 103 144 118 131 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 141560 106 108 123 65 161 96 121 102 109 93 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 131570 69 58 100 91 106 107 84 96 95 60 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 131580 56 67 118 94 84 98 120 132 104 104 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 15 151590 85 69 105 77 100 57 109 147 113 144 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151600 79 100 106 114 97 102 120 131 142 84 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151610 178 127 107 81 94 124 126 154 100 117 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151620 82 120 79 71 97 96 55 86 109 91 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151630 67 62 63 118 126 143 94 73 122 69 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151640 95 101 98 110 83 64 84 79 77 97 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151650 114 82 89 87 116 66 101 39 74 67 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151660 81 120 84 120 89 75 122 74 79 91 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141670 97 137 149 129 145 83 86 86 113 130 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 151680 167 141 128 106 122 126 75 140 118 114 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 171690 71 74 108 95 149 121 90 105 93 81 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 201700 132 130 113 67 130 148 114 103 100 98 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 221710 106 79 100 110 108 125 100 56 71 57 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 231720 71 86 107 81 75 91 110 143 93 66 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 251730 93 84 126 82 111 93 108 106 132 93 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 291740 94 61 73 93 81 103 105 135 115 150 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 301750 100 107 103 84 81 99 77 BO 93 113 30 29 29 30 32 32 32 32 33 331760 157 157 145 130 97 133 133 119 108 120 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 341770 137 115 86 100 95 106 52 97 75 90 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 37 371780 121 87 107 93 121 146 115 89 85 103 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 39 391790 111 114 114 101 68 93 78 76 77 115 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 421800 83 102 97 158 105 145 101 71 100 139 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 431810 92 93 129 84 129 72 98 110 113 103 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431820 83 68 84 93 90 113 109 99 87 50 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 44 441830 84 58 96 76 70 97 113 77 74 71 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 44 44 441840 74 75 82 74 71 117 100 88 105 88 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441850 105 131 103 130 91 119 88 102 91 63 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441860 121 108 99 89 86 59 90 63 90 116 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441870 76 64 77 83 73 85 82 111 118 108 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441880 78 96 109 114 128 162 111 113 97 58 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441890 66 134 101 95 122 98 113 83 108 93 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441900 130 117 128 95 123 159 125 135 126 115 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441910 94 122 124 94 147 116 110 68 71 74 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441920 81 129 86 119 59 104 84 94 100 96 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441930 88 72 80 69 92 102 96 60 97 89 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441940 98 111 123 134 114 123 83 118 134 83 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 431950 107 110 101 166 110 87 97 138 124 101 43 43 43 43 42 42 42 42 42 421960 86 75 89 94 111 117 83 83 74 90 42 42 42 42 40 40 40 40 40 401970 120 131 89 77 81 63 78 114 113 91 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 401980 122 40
104
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE SHR Site no. 12
Site name: SHARP MOUNTAINSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: SISKIYOUAdministration: KLAMATH NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Bray, CA 1950Elevation: 1335 -1500 m Latitude: 41° 44'N Longitude: 121° 49'WNo. of trees sampled: 42 No. of core samples: 86Date of collection: JUL 1983 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA, WXD
Site description:
The Sharp Mountain site in north central California consists of eight subsiteareas scattered from the northeast flank of Sharp Mountain northwestward 4.8 km (3 mi)to a location just southwest of Tecnor. The subsites are further scattered south 11.2km (7 mi) between Long Prairie and Wild Horse Mountain. Access is through Bray, 11.2km (7 mi) east of U.S. Highway 97 and 14.4 km (9 mi) southwest of Tecnor, or from thenorth off Forest Road 45N0.5. All the subsites, with the exception of one area on thesloping northeast flank of a cinder cone volcano remnant, are on nearly level toslightly sloping basalt bedrock flows or boulder -cobble fields. Soil development isminimal with 20 to 30 cm of accumulated aeolian sands and silts and some weatheredparent material. All but one of the subsite stands are open. The majority of thetrees are young. Sampled trees range from 5 to 12 m in height and 50 to 141 cm indiameter. Nearly every subsite has evidence of extensive stand disturbance both bycutting and by fire. Cattle also graze throughout the area. In several locations,ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) and incense cedar (Libocedrus decurrens) grow with thejuniper. Mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus spp), low sagebrush (Artemisia spp), bitterbrush (Purshia spp) and several species of native and non -native grasses are alsopresent. Heart rot of the western juniper is a frequent occurrence at this site. Veryfew cores going back prior to the 1740's were collected at this site. Two partialcross sections were recovered from stumps in hopes of obtaining a longer chronology,but they proved to be no older than the majority of the trees.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSHARP MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [JUOC]
Chronology 1548 to 1982 (435 years) 27 trees, 50 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 .998 1.001Median 1.006 1.014 .998
Mean sensitivity .306 .274 .299
Standard deviation .327 .233 .324Skewness .283 -.073 .350
Kurtosis 5.375 2.698 5.418
Autocorrelation order 1 .288 -.005 .318
Partial autocorr. order 2 .142 -.034 .111
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.069 -.029 -.083
Variance from autoregression 19.6 pct 19.1 pctError variance .024251 .022209Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .916
Common interval 1801 to 1981 (181 years) 18 trees, 30 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .433 .477
Between trees (Y «ariance) .420 .465
Within trees .696 .713
Signal -to -noise ratio 13.05 15.64
Agreement with pop. chron. .929 .940
Variance in eigenvector 1 45.34 pct 49.23 pctChron. common interval mean 1.006 1.001
Chron. common interval st dev .290 .248
105
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SHARP MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1549 102
0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1
1550 67 118 197 80 91 90 65 125 72 165 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1560 66 76 59 117 128 101 138 95 117 135 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1570 113 44 90 72 15 22 83 110 219 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1580 0 0 137 153 109 124 146 128 121 91 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1590 64 74 43 60 62 15 118 143 105 136 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2
1600 90 85 90 92 98 109 100 89 186 88 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1610 224 124 97 79 75 118 127 252 110 131 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1620 96 106 78 89 84 108 40 110 128 80 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1630 83 113 97 226 123 116 89 83 96 61 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1640 94 118 120 66 83 50 103 108 92 121 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1650 101 75 72 86 75 29 71 23 40 35 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1660 116 122 138 149 174 150 119 39 108 131 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1670 97 123 159 115 164 94 74 103 138 132 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
1680 171 169 127 91 114 91 68 100 115 170 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1690 94 54 100 95 120 73 94 100 102 91 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1700 143 123 128 47 105 99 103 132 85 112 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1710 52 80 96 97 82 98 113 47 81 102 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
1720 86 67 105 103 103 96 134 127 71 75 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 7
1730 82 88 94 52 128 89 103 117 122 102 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9
1740 105 73 99 99 91 110 91 97 74 115 11 12 13 14 16 18 19 19 20 20
1750 92 105 108 83 90 84 69 68 109 100 20 20 21 22 23 23 24 24 25 25
1760 103 103 102 103 98 120 117 106 114 121 25 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 30
1770 130 84 86 102 109 116 84 104 93 109 30 30 31 31 31 32 33 33 33 33
1780 117 128 92 72 111 117 85 73 46 84 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 35 35
1790 96 114 131 91 65 75 102 106 106 148 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 36 36
1800 88 125 147 154 120 136 117 99 108 115 37 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39
1810 107 98 113 81 124 91 95 101 140 109 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 41
1820 90 93 85 125 57 136 118 108 40 49 42 42 42 42 42 42 41 41 41 41
1830 91 88 115 100 91 122 106 78 101 131 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43
1840 102 57 104 44 66 111 105 91 102 111 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45
1850 77 120 95 119 94 103 69 113 108 85 45 45 46 47 47 47 47 47 48 48
1860 79 96 98 97 74 74 118 82 126 99 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1870 80 67 88 70 82 39 108 131 165 128 48 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
1880 88 122 107 110 153 153 126 135 119 83 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
1890 105 136 85 105 143 95 128 84 100 75 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49
1900 124 118 126 106 126 129 125 120 86 80 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
I910 74 96 97 125 138 121 113 73 52 65 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1920 46 107 95 91 26 89 54 91 66 55 48 48 47 47 46 44 44 44 44 43
1930 62 40 70 37 36 54 54 33 59 34 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43
1940 103 132 111 135 99 116 89 93 132 82 43 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 41
1950 85 78 96 133 124 92 144 124 163 93 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1960 96 110 116 143 151 145 108 136 102 115 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1970 116 156 104 68 102 85 60 97 114 74 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1980 115 115 98 41 41 40
107
108
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE TIM Site no. 13
Site name: TIMBERED MOUNTAINSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalis
PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MODOCAdministration: MODOC NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Big Sage Reservoir, CA 1962
USCS 15' series, Jacks Butte, CA 1962Elevation: 1555 -1616 m Latitude: 41° 44'N Longitude: 120° 45'WNo. of trees sampled: JUOC 15 No. of core samples: JUOC 29
PIPO 1 PIPO 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, KL
Site description:
Timbered Mountain is a low basalt flow mesa northwest of the town of Alturas innortheast California. It is 15.5 km (9.3 mi) north -northwest of Big Sage Reservoir and0.4 km (0.3 mi) east of Crowder Flat Road (Modoc County Road 73). Three subsites weresampled, all with evidence of much wood cutting, some evidence of fire and extensivecattle grazing. One subsite is on the gently sloped (0° to 8 °), basalt boulder- cobble-covered southwestern and southeastern flanks of Timbered Mountain. A second subsite islocated 0.8 km (0.5 mi) north and west of Timbered Mountain along Modoc County Road 73in a similar setting. The soil is thin, 10 to 30 cm, with occasional deeper pockets.The stand of western juniper is very open to moderately dense on top of TimberedMountain. It is a mixed age stand and with some heartrot and infestations of moss andmistletoe. The sampled trees are 8 to 14 m in height and 43 to 103 cm in diameter.The ponderosa pine occurs as isolated trees scattered among the juniper. Associatedvegetation includes low sagebrush (Artemisia spp), bitter brush (Purshia spp) andperennial and annual grasses. The third subsite consists of the Big Sage Reservoircollection, which was combined with this collection. It is 1.5 km (0.9 mi) west of BigSage Reservoir, and 14 km (8.4 mi) south southeast of the first two subsites. It issimilar but more nearly flat and with less woodcutting.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSTIMBERED MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [JUOC]
Chronology 1654 to 1980
Chronology type
(327 years)
STNDRD
13 trees, 22 radii
RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.004 1.000Median .980 1.003 .987Mean sensitivity .220 .246 .214
Standard deviation .253 .217 .252Skewness .214 .024 .206Kurtosis 3.169 3.459 3.314
Autocorrelation order 1 .435 -.004 .467
Partial autocorr. order 2 .084 -.003 .083Partial autocorr. order 3 .052 -.034 -.005
Variance from autoregression 22.5 pct 24.5 pctError variance .007529 .004787Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .636
Common interval 1777 to 1972 (196 years) 11 trees, 16 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .495 .537Between trees (Y variance) .482 .526
Within trees .738 .745
Signal -to -noise ratio 10.24 12.20Agreement with pop. chron. .911 .924
Variance in eigenvector 1 52.15 pct 56.21 pctChron. common interval mean 1.016 1.009Chron. common interval st dev .271 .231
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109
TIMBERED MOUNTAIN. CALIFORNIA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5
1656
JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
6 7 8 9
81 84 36 124
0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 1 1 1
1660 103 109 100 116 77 70 85 41 73 120 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
1670 110 110 106 75 108 83 65 98 105 114 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1680 151 172 117 90 106 92 46 102 99 85 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31690 88 89 108 95 129 90 80 91 65 79 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 6 61700 87 90 100 62 112 120 93 99 85 82 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61710 86 111 112 112 78 91 99 86 101 65 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1720 103 67 106 109 96 103 115 160 101 70 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1730 93 113 125 69 123 130 123 126 122 83 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 91740 90 86 102 114 104 123 113 120 108 126 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10
1750 70 90 99 102 88 108 90 81 97 102 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 14 14
1760 127 131 108 102 87 93 96 119 125 125 14 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
1770 108 85 73 92 78 90 55 87 72 106 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 18
1780 108 108 106 79 122 140 132 133 124 153 18 18 18 18 17 17 17 18 18 18
1790 133 154 151 123 86 88 84 84 85 128 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 181800 83 108 112 155 126 152 114 102 106 136 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 191810 107 116 105 86 103 77 89 86 103 96 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21
1820 97 87 63 68 81 90 115 105 108 40 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1830 85 74 106 89 76 86 84 79 78 71 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 211840 71 55 70 60 68 97 82 79 113 97 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 211850 121 141 125 142 127 125 84 107 101 76 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1860 151 147 135 112 100 81 124 98 125 124 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1870 79 70 76 91 94 81 80 98 96 78 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1880 61 81 74 81 109 147 110 110 103 49 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1890 71 114 83 87 117 110 111 128 115 98 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1900 147 147 137 95 114 144 125 137 128 111 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1910 88 126 85 78 132 94 90 77 62 83 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1920 70 122 86 99 34 98 50 69 105 93 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1930 77 32 84 73 45 99 93 73 113 97 21 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 201940 133 140 137 152 99 94 90 92 111 105 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 201950 125 119 119 184 148 93 112 151 161 88 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19
1960 67 42 66 106 129 129 90 84 92 110 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 18 18 181970 130 144 101 89 99 75 70 92 100 89 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
1980 99 17
110
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE DAL Site no. 14
Site name: DALTON RESERVOIRSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MODOCAdministration: MODOC NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Jacks Butte, CA 1962Elevation: 1463 -1524 m Latitude: 41° 39'N Longitude: 120° 58'WNo. of trees sampled: 20 No. of core samples: 41Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, KL
Site description:
The sampled areas extend 6 km (3.6 mi) along Mowitz Road between Mowitz Butte tankand the road to Dalton Reservoir. Mowitz Butte is 18.2 km (12 mi) north of CaliforniaState Highway 139. All the subsites are on flat basalt flow cobble and boulder fields.Soil is 10 to 40 cm thick and mostly of aeolian origin. In this area ponderosa pine isdominant, and the stands range from very open to fairly dense, with an almost closedcanopy in some areas. Sampled trees range from 10 to 22 m in height and 64 to 135 cmin diameter. The stands are mostly of mixed age, but in some locations they appear tobe second growth after logging or fire. Cattle graze in the areas. Western juniper(Juniperus occidentalis), mountain mahogany
grasses
- CHRONOLOGY
(Cercocarpus spp), sagebrush (Artemisiaspp) and native and non -native
PROGRAM ARSTAN
share the landscape
STATISTICS
with the ponderosa pine.
DALTON RESERVOIR, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]Chronology 1357 to 1980 (624 years) 20 trees, 43 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .997 .995Median .998 1.000 .995Mean sensitivity .209 .247 .209Standard deviation .298 .211 .283Skewness .128 -.244 .021Kurtosis 4.566 3.646 4.304
Autocorrelation order 1 .647 -.007 .594Partial autocorr. order 2 .133 .039 .158Partial autocorr. order 3 .007 -.018 .058
Variance from autoregression 41.8 pct 37.3 pctError variance .007677 .007723Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.006
Common interval 1692 to 1975 (284 years) 15 trees, 26 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .455 .408Between trees (Y variance) .442 .397Within trees .722 .636
Signal -to -noise ratio 11.88 9.89Agreement with pop. chron. .922 .908Variance in eigenvector 1 47.26 pct 42.94 pctChron. common interval mean .998 .997Chron. common interval st dev .270 .213
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Figure A3-4.
ARSTAN chronology for Site 14, Dalton Reservoir, California, Pinus
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DALTON RESERVOIR. CALIFORNIA PINUS PONDEROSA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1358 70
9
33
0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY.
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 1
1360 50 84 91 92 108 121 77 48 80 129 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1370 108 94 75 128 152 147 147 184 120 109 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1380 139 134 89 121 96 153 131 123 103 108 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1390 125 137 44 93 134 136 188 245 188 109 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1400 117 94 96 64 99 81 77 120 47 55 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
1410 58 80 77 71 81 49 57 60 54 108 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1420 133 113 117 112 90 109 94 102 65 101 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1430 21 21 17 27 22 45 32 58 47 37 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1440 52 58 109 80 97 106 119 1I7 39 49 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1450 89 97 97 83 150 98 145 122 122 102 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 61460 100 112 129 135 76 114 70 87 85 103 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7
1470 98 131 125 115 82 135 53 81 112 88 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71480 94 95 54 71 87 94 105 103 94 91 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81490 97 101 106 98 99 79 141 120 89 121 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7
1500 62 80 99 130 121 97 103 114 132 164 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 81510 169 140 129 114 100 98 76 79 80 109 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81520 127 107 84 124 132 152 112 113 138 106 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81530 119 125 82 86 137 95 122 119 119 163 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81540 116 117 121 103 126 108 91 127 104 109 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 91550 109 129 105 100 70 98 95 123 161 160 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91560 126 123 112 95 116 112 124 119 127 132 9 9 9 10 11 11 II 11 11 11
1570 95 91 98 95 98 103 79 99 102 68 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1580 37 47 76 96 88 92 89 137 132 140 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1590 123 111 87 g2 94 99 100 118 113 124 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1600 111 126 133 95 89 100 112 121 122 111 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1610 142 128 116 132 84 103 80 110 103 63 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 131620 69 91 96 94 103 112 78 92 86 58 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 131630 71 72 54 100 127 128 120 108 122 67 I3 13 13 13 14 14 16 16 16 161640 99 117 106 74 90 78 67 112 96 101 16 17 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 191650 95 83 79 64 68 29 55 35 54 58 19 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1660 88 87 76 96 77 66 89 63 79 120 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 221670 104 114 107 142 136 124 90 102 88 92 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 241680 89 122 97 86 111 112 82 108 109 105 24 25 25 27 27 27 27 27 27 271690 105 100 104 89 95 89 94 113 95 100 27 28 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291700 Ill 100 145 92 96 125 119 109 113 106 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291710 100 III 114 116 102 127 125 87 83 86 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291720 91 35 74 98 76 88 98 111 90 80 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291730 93 106 117 80 78 91 83 101 119 47 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 30 30 301740 62 52 82 93 103 138 138 147 86 114 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301750 91 97 111 113 94 129 83 80 95 119 30 32 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
1760 109 126 133 95 89 125 97 90 116 103 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 311770 114 90 107 102 83 116 37 58 49 75 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
1780 93 63 81 63 88 86 90 78 85 97 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 321790 94 143 108 111 88 79 83 70 74 105 32 32 32 33 33 33 33 34 34 341800 100 97 105 133 114 125 144 128 127 165 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 35 35 361810 148 146 155 124 160 110 114 89 127 113 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 361820 99 108 58 69 85 97 110 104 115 59 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 38 38 381830 83 76 117 110 95 111 132 124 137 71 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 40 40 401840 93 70 80 69 62 98 77 91 86 89 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1850 92 110 112 106 103 143 100 106 97 81 41 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 401860 118 143 99 109 80 81 124 90 123 118 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 401870 96 69 89 93 89 126 89 122 116 116 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 401880 75 127 95 93 107 152 100 117 106 37 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 401890 53 81 75 96 116 97 96 110 84 73 40 40 40 40 40 38 38 38 38 381900 131 110 98 93 110 102 101 142 136 114 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381910 102 88 91 127 126 131 121 93 73 85 38 38 38 38 38 36 38 38 38 381920 73 102 75 98 32 58 58 57 81 48 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381930 58 31 45 38 33 54 49 31 62 47 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381940 59 82 118 129 76 101 119 121 97 81 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381950 119 121 119 154 144 119 118 150 151 105 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381960 81 86 105 122 107 132 153 100 97 146 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381970 114 124 152 99 94 99 86 86 100 104 38 38 38 38 38 38 37 37 37 371980 124 37
114
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE JAC Site no. 15
Site name: JACKSON MOUNTAINSSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: NEVADA County: HUMBOLDTAdministration: BUREAU OF LAND MANAGEMENTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Bottle Creek, NV 1961Elevation: 2024 -2170 m Latitude: 41° 18'N Longitude: 118° 26'WNo. of trees sampled: 43 No. of core samples: 113Date of collection: JUN 1985 Collectors: RLH, RKA, VCK, CJE
Site description:
The Jackson Mountains, which constitute the eastern boundary of the Black RockDesert, are in the northwestern corner of Nevada, 80 km (50 mi) in a straight linenorthwest of Winnemucca. By road, U.S. Highway 95 north, State Highway 140 west,Leonard Creek Road south and Jackson Creek Ranch Road south, it is over 120 km (75 mi)to the Jackson Mountains site area. Jackson Creek Ranch Road, which parallels thenorth -south trend of. the Jackson Mountain Range along the west side of the mountains,has a spur road that follows Jackson Creek into the Jackson Mountains. On the westside of the summit near the road crest, a side road heads north to three abandonedmines. The sampled stand, consisting solely of western juniper, is both above andbelow this road. Though mostly very open, in some locales there are dense clusters oftrees. Most of the trees are on moderately steep (12° to 35 °) slopes and cliffs.Bedrock consists mainly of shales, with interbedded conglomerates, quartzites andsandstones. Most of the soils are thin (10 to 20 cm) in all but the shale bedrock. In
the shale /clay locations soil may be over 100 cm deep. The sampled trees range from 3to 10 m in height and 45 to 295 cm in diameter. Sagebrush (Artemisia spp), gooseberry(Ribes spp), lupines (Lupinus spp), composites and grasses comprise the understory.There are three running water draws that support riparian vegetation in the bottoms,but most of the slope areas are dry and well drained. There are many limbed trees andtree stumps, perhaps due to activity at the nearby mines. A few of the trees alsoexhibit fire scars. Both the historic period, with cabin foundations, roads and trashpiles, and the prehistoric period, with obsidian and chert artifacts are represented atthe site.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSJACKSON MOUNTAINS, IDAHO [JUOC]
Chronology 1267 to 1984 (718 years) 29 trees, 72 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.000Median 1.005 1.002 1.002Mean sensitivity .267 .287 .260Standard deviation .267 .248 .261Skewness -.093 -.111 -.008Kurtosis 3.327 3.331 3.064
Autocorrelation order 1 .283 .010 .276Partial autocorr. order 2 .050 .002 .049Partial autocorr. order 3 .036 -.017 -.003
Variance from autoregression 8.9 pct 8.1 pctError variance .006784 .005502Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .811
Common interval 1758 to 1981 (224 years) 24 trees, 37 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .398 .447
Between trees (Y variance) .389 .436Within trees .700 .760
Signal -to -noise ratio 15.29 18.58Agreement with pop. chron. .939 .949Variance in eigenvector 1 41.47 pct 45.68 pctChron. common interval mean .993 .997Chron. common interval st dev .253 .231 115
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JACKSON MTNS. NEVADA JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1269 108 1
1270 115 69 79 68 101 61 48 121 68 96 2 2 21280 86 96 127 172 129 77 111 122 97 125 2 2 21290 116 103 58 102 120 104 55 38 67 91 3 3 31300 100 126 119 100 I13 177 101 106 130 73 3 3 31310 88 150 98 96 142 60 64 76 115 68 5 5 51320 104 82 112 70 28 52 30 81 57 79 5 5 51330 133 137 123 117 124 66 76 113 126 119 7 7 71340 151 137 138 142 130 104 115 106 98 121 8 8 81350 68 73 77 92 100 91 108 124 89 106 8 8 81360 88 88 63 112 97 88 88 102 91 80 8 8 81370 80 91 127 127 132 94 92 75 91 71 8 8 81380 90 12 86 103 125 115 110 108 124 126 8 8 81390 126 20 120 91 141 89 67 76 94 99 9 9 91400 107 17 87 101 116 78 88 75 88 95 8 8 81410 53 09 111 71 97 113 91 111 85 91 9 9 91420 124 15 95 139 121 92 102 146 63 111 1 1 1 1 13 13 13 1 1 1
1430 86 57 55 55 57 102 83 98 109 73 1 1 1 1 15 15 15 1 1 l
1440 87 11 139 132 60 101 78 123 138 114 1 1 1 1 16 16 16 1 1 1
1450 106 00 92 109 69 109 79 104 78 94 1 1 1 1 17 17 17 1 1 1
1460 81 96 135 135 70 82 95 83 87 112 1 1 1 1 17 17 17 1 1 1
1470 134 12 124 63 80 79 68 84 128 61 1 1 1 1 17 17 17 1 1 1
1480 76 97 83 95 134 108 159 120 107 111 l 1 i 1 17 17 17 I 1 21490 116 93 118 90 97 80 111 108 114 38 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 2 2 21500 56 113 120 147 131 113 107 105 92 134 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 211510 96 150 123 111 105 55 83 103 46 126 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 211520 118 121 83 86 119 136 106 109 103 68 21 21 20 20 21 21 21 22 22 221530 123 101 35 72 107 108 99 122 153 154 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 231540 131 59 93 73 96 82 80 78 87 119 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 251550 113 132 149 130 54 79 94 159 132 122 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 251560 115 67 100 100 170 101 107 95 116 80 25 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 26 261570 63 87 70 92 105 103 79 120 112 68 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 281580 19 72 78 117 89 55 88 125 139 121 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 281590 107 92 64 82 73 65 123 98 126 142 28 28 28 28 30 30 30 30 30 321600 37 131 133 108 127 151 123 131 142 83 32 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 341610 131 95 127 75 98 103 115 126 97 108 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351620 77 84 78 73 133 131 62 93 116 76 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351630 91 64 42 114 130 143 110 63 107 104 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351640 125 105 173 133 138 81 108 76 110 119 35 35 35 36 36 37 37 38 38 381650 114 113 80 69 66 46 115 85 122 74 38 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 39 391660 80 160 88 120 101 88 117 61 98 87 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 421670 111 101 96 54 121 95 68 82 88 101 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 44 44 451680 99 172 110 112 133 109 94 142 119 100 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 46 46 461690 67 65 91 138 141 70 90 116 84 104 46 46 46 46 46 46 47 47 47 471700 100 115 121 56 105 158 116 63 87 102 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 481710 96 94 100 110 106 96 109 87 84 96 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 481720 113 79 94 88 113 109 130 163 129 14 48 48 50 50 50 51 51 51 51 511730 135 129 148 85 109 36 109 95 111 80 51 51 52 51 50 50 51 51 51 511740 84 92 99 128 82 124 136 134 95 149 51 51 51 51 51 52 52 52 52 531750 88 105 99 84 80 68 46 66 63 66 53 53 53 53 53 52 53 53 55 551760 81 122 78 104 75 100 124 92 133 99 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531770 96 97 95 122 82 93 67 35 66 70 53 53 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 541780 102 94 76 94 98 95 109 100 90 136 54 55 56 56 56 56 56 57 57 571790 126 136 125 102 87 69 79 64 91 117 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571800 125 104 97 136 92 130 58 79 102 128 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 581810 94 146 109 93 100 111 109 88 65 103 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 581820 115 114 87 107 88 136 142 102 120 87 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 581830 88 68 114 108 102 110 96 104 100 106 58 57 57 56 56 56 56 55 55 551840 93 62 68 60 70 99 63 67 113 85 54 54 54 53 53 53 53 53 53 531850 82 118 114 103 121 139 99 107 89 77 53 53 53 53 53 53 52 52 52 521860 102 125 117 66 130 95 142 87 120 127 52 52 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 511870 132 84 105 91 74 62 76 124 115 87 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 511880 77 110 111 92 141 176 112 88 123 57 51 51 51 51 50 50 50 50 50 501890 67 115 83 95 119 100 86 130 86 90 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 501900 131 114 89 71 99 99 134 126 112 96 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 501910 87 109 86 154 135 114 126 74 71 75 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 49 491920 84 133 77 119 48 105 90 100 70 76 49 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 481930 88 55 87 58 51 94 109 108 146 100 48 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461940 113 163 119 149 I40 109 98 78 70 65 46 46 46 46 46 46 45 45 45 451950 49 81 108 110 65 59 71 104 123 60 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451960 82 91 97 131 108 113 61 72 77 102 45 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 431970 124 153 114 110 100 119 100 148 126 103 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431980 140 118 89 128 135 43 43 42 42 42
117
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE LIK Site no. 16
Site name: LIKELY MOUNTAINSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: LASSENAdministration: MODOC NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Likely, CA 1962Elevation: 1744 -1878 m. Latitude: 41° 09'N Longitude: 1200 34'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 15 No. of core samples: PIJE 31
JUOC 1 JUOC 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, KL
Site description:
The small town of Likely is in the northeast corner of California on U.S. Highway395. The old volcanic cone of Likely Mountain, shown on some maps as South ForkMountain, is 8.8 km (5.5 mi) south of the town of Likely. The mountain is 4 km (2.5mi) west of U.S. Highway 395. Two subsite areas were sampled, one on the southeastflank of Likely Mountain and the other on the southwest side of an igneous basalt ridgejust northeast of Likely Mountain. Subsite area 1 consists of six trees on a flattopped ridge with a thin aeolian and colluvial soil. There is evidence of a recentforest fire in parts of the area. Another subsite has ten. sampled trees on a steepslope (12 to 28°) of basalt boulder -cobble colluvium. This area has evidence of forestfire and human disturbance such as an old roadbed and some stumps. The sampled treesrange from 9 to 20 m in height and 60 to 155 cm in diameter. Both pine and juniper areregenerating strongly; the mature trees occur as scattered individuals. Mountainmahogany (Cercocarpus spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp), sagebrush (Artemisia spp) and manygrasses compose a dense understory.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLIKELY MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1653 to 1980 (328 years) 14 trees, 27 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 .994Median 1.027 1.006 1.015Mean sensitivity .237 .268 .236Standard deviation .274 .231 .277Skewness -.229 -.214 -.238Kurtosis 3.023 3.419 2.990
Autocorrelation order 1 .476 .005 .503Partial autocorr. order 2 .239 .036 .250Partial autocorr. order 3 .024 -.024 .038
Variance from autoregression 26.7 pct 29.6 pctError variance .003768 .003950Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN / STNDRD) 1.048
Common interval 1859 to 1980 (122 years) 13 trees, 22 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .567 .547Between trees (Y variance) .555 .538Within trees .785 .735
Signal -to -noise ratio 16.25 15.14Agreement with pop. chron. .942 .938Variance in eigenvector 1 58.12 pet 56.50 pctChron. common interval mean 1.010 1.005Chron. common interval st dev .289 .230
118
LIKELY MOUNTAIN. CALIFORNIA
PILAUS JEFFRETI
STANDARD CHRONOLOGY
TREE RING INDICES
NUMBER OF SAMPLES
DATE
01
23
45
67
89
01
23
45
67
89
1553
57
112
82
145
56
54
43
1660
52
93
50
72
52
32
66
70
83
117
1670
111
119
130
83
115
70
82
130
102
118
1680
119
108
140
132
168
133
115
135
103
126
1690
114
22
60
86
106
79
100
147
115
128
1700
126
102
124
49
74
131
81
103
91
89
1710
85
89
99
119
85
139
123
113
118
73
1720
116
79
110
95
125
119
121
108
105
45
1730
110
132
139
99
121
108
150
91
108
52
1740
50
74
93
111
125
145
136
148
88
130
1750
72
116
133
92
87
110
100
91
103
83
1760
108
110
80
84
82
94
109
85
112
112
1770
61
70
77
89
92
98
57
37
68
85
1780
61
73
63
49
80
99
90
76
53
107
1790
112
131
128
92
82
69
80
90
52
118
1800
80
114
115
132
122
137
123
110
111
135
1810
130
143
101
113
105
111
103
115
111
121
1820
123
124
93
79
107
126
136
112
124
97
1830
116
92
149
108
110
117
128
102
120
67
1840
84
54
79
66
76
96
61
80
82
73
1850
84
103
116
120
112
130
97
98
96
68
1860
104
142
104
110
88
90
137
111
121
115
1870
110
78
104
99
79
107
101
121
121
99
1880
80
125
94
84
116
143
107
94
73
40
1890
73
97
81
100
127
121
121
134
133
114
1900
170
171
112
95
121
118
105
174
151
145
1510
131
123
78
132
130
93
106
84
73
81
1920
66
114
89
94
48
77
73
81
87
60
1930
73
38
66
29
27
43
51
37
94
64
1940
84
95
112
125
93
103
120
81
96
93
1950
90
112
94
124
116
88
120
137
147
75
1960
86
58
92
103
110
114
116
102
76
129
1970
119
119
136
105
109
128
85
97
133
85
1980
160
11
11
1'
11
11
11
I1
11
11
11
1I
11
11
I1
11
22
22
22
24
55
55
77
78
88
88
88
88
88
88
88
88
88
88
88
99
99
99
10
10
11
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
Il
11
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
18
18
18
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
22
22
22
22
23
24
25
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
24
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23 23 23 23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
LIKELY MOUNTAIN. CALIFORNIA
PINUS JEFFREY'
RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY
TREE RING INDICES
NUMBER OF SAMPLES
DATE
01
23
45
67
89
01
23
45
67
89
1656
1660
1670
1680
1690
1700
1710
1720
1730
1740
1750
1760
1770
1780
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
83
122
62
93
108
110
120
68
112
96
127
101
104
10
87
110
109
70
109
39
89
95
106
121
122
80
116
95
129
139
128
78
65
100
113
119
63
121
130
79
114
108
74
89
62
74
93
101
77
94
81
68
119
127
115
75
79
118
111
127
113
124
75
104
112
111
80
74
113
86
151
93
95
64
103
84
100
116
122
116
116
144
91
100
99
70
110
101
77
130
85
85
102
118
92
109
1ÓÓ
138
64
131
80
131
91
102
92
59
96
57
102
110
121
124
93
118
91
127
82
64
110
114
108
106
120
86
159
73
115
150
1228780
130
119
124
8190
104
107
77
10597
111
97 97
102
79
80
119
132
117
121 5465
82
109
113
97
5569
99 85
153
139
110
93
134
112
102
110
117
78
121
105
128
107
116
12493
115
141
109
109
789789
10278
109
122
150
42
102
95
90
143
87
123
116
148
83
108
114
94
109
97
140
69
114
128
99
93
119
83
61
51
99
82
93
102
103
93
98
111
128
94
119
88
70
102
78
92
142
100
100
121
88
82
109
120
94
165
101
80
92
99
91
75
118
75
116
131
I10
92
77
95
61
101 9486
10390
103
92
100
57
104
117977592
103
106
111
11497
93
111
11269
115
120
77
100
129
100
129
71
131
70
129
111
117
116
6345
51
123
85
110
110
127
129
1148059
72
10188
5196
112937084
96
51
13474
11 1314
1517
1717
20
21272727
2727272723
232323
2222
11
1
11
11
11
1I
I1
11
11
11
12
22
22
55
67
88
88
88
88
88
88
8
99
910
111314
15
17
1717
20
22
27
2727 2727
23
2323
2322
13
15
15 17
17
1720
2227
2727272727
2723
23232322
10
11 1315
16
17
1717
202227
27272727272723
232323
22
13
15
16
17
17
1720
22
27 272727272727
23
2323
2222
8
10
11
10
11
11
11
11
13
13
14 5
15
15
15
15
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17
17 8
17 18 17
20
20
20
20
021
23
24
25
26
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
27
226 3
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
LIKELY MOUNTAIN. CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREY!
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1653 57 112 82 141 56 49 47 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1660 49 88 43 64 48 23 59 62 72 108 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1670 102 110 125 80 113 72 80 132 100 114 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1680 120 107 135 118 164 130 112 139 106 128 1 1 1 I 1 2 2 2 21690 119 23 64 84 102 80 107 147 121 133 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 5 51700 130 90 113 45 67 131 84 104 92 88 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 81710 84 85 97 116 84 135 126 109 114 72 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81720 115 82 108 96 128 121 121 111 102 50 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81730 111 135 139 100 130 108 148 91 106 56 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81740 49 73 89 106 122 142 135 151 87 130 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81750 77 117 135 93 87 109 99 93 101 84 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91760 108 109 78 83 80 89 110 83 111 112 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11
1770 66 64 74 82 89 100 57 33 63 80 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 131780 56 70 59 43 75 93 86 73 61 102 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 141790 109 127 127 92 81 72 78 87 80 115 14 14 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151800 80 111 113 132 120 136 123 110 114 139 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 171810 131 144 101 116 107 111 105 116 114 122 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 171820 125 126 97 79 105 I26 137 113 125 95 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 171830 117 94 151 114 111 119 130 104 123 71 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 201840 89 57 81 68 77 99 62 85 84 76 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 211850 87 106 119 123 115 136 97 99 95 69 21 22 22 22 22 23 24 25 26 271860 103 140 104 109 86 90 136 111 121 114 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271870 109 78 104 99 78 107 98 120 120 99 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271880 81 125 91 84 114 142 105 93 72 40 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271890 73 94 80 98 127 117 120 134 133 117 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271900 170 171 115 97 125 119 105 173 151 145 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271910 133 124 83 131 132 94 107 84 72 80 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271920 66 112 87 96 51 76 74 80 86 59 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 24 231930 71 39 64 30 26 44 50 39 92 65 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 231940 81 96 113 127 94 106 121 84 98 94 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 231950 89 113 93 126 118 89 118 137 146 77 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 231960 85 58 89 101 108 Ill 115 101 75 126 23 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 221970 113 113 130 101 104 126 88 95 130 84 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221980 158 22
120
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLIKELY MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIJE] MAXIMUM LATEWOOD DENSITYChronology 1699 to 1980 (282 years) 8 trees, 16 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.002Median 1.001 1.004 1.005Mean sensitivity .087 .097 .088
Standard deviation .099 .090 .105
Skewness -.188 -.293 -.220Kurtosis 2.739 3.311 2.788
Autocorrelation order 1 .369 .023 .419Partial autocorr. order 2 .183 .008 .149
Partial autocorr. order 3 .224 .041 .270
Variance from autoregression 19.0 pct 24.1 pctError variance .001593 .001613Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN / STNDRD) 1.013
Common interval 1857 to 1979 (123 years) 8 trees, 16 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .421 .375Between trees (Y variance) .404 .358
Within trees .630 .586
Signal -to -noise ratio 5.42 4.45Agreement with pop. chron. .844 .817
Variance in eigenvector 1 45.74 pct 41.58 pctChron. common interval mean 1.000 .998Chron. common interval st dev .099 .087
121
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LIKELY MTN, CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREY'
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1699
7
MAXIMUM RING DENSITY
8 9 0 1
108
2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1
1700 117 112 119 78 90 126 108 110 96 92 1 1 1 1 1 I 1 1 1 2
1710 88 92 93 98 91 96 94 83 94 88 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21720 94 87 87 96 96 104 100 107 107 114 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21730 122 117 121 116 121 118 106 103 109 84 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21740 95 89 114 115 103 108 118 114 112 116 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21750 100 113 119 99 100 106 105 87 109 102 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -2 2 21760 98 100 85 106 103 89 104 109 98 113 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 31770 98 91 88 87 75 92 90 76 94 97 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 51780 88 85 84 70 105 107 87 97 93 104 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 61790 109 111 116 109 103 90 118 106 92 114 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71800 104 100 99 111 102 106 107 103 107 95 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81810 107 108 101 101 97 104 lOt 107 101 99 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81820 103 110 91 91 95 102 103 92 98 95 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81830 102 85 106 111 96 102 108 98 109 87, 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 111840 100 81 98 83 88 102 86 106 95 88 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 131850 98 109 109 103 105 105 100 108 105 98 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 16 16 161860 100 113 101 105 97 103 106 102 101 104 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161870 102 91 101 96 95 100 100 94 102 97 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161880 95 110 104 99 101 114 108 101 93 78 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161890 99 98 88 95 104 109 111 112 112 112 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161900 120 117 102 99 111 106 108 111 108 111 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161910 114 110 94 111 114 91 99 99 86 91 16 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161920 80 89 101 98 86 88 79 101 92 80 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161930 88 89 91 74 80 86 77 78 98 94 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161940 88 95 106 110 93 97 108 103 96 101 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161950 100 102 95 106 110 88 119 120 117 87 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161960 99 90 92 109 106 100 105 99 80 118 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161970 114 92 119 106 101 109 100 81 98 100 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161980 111 15
123
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLIKELY MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIJE] RING WIDTHS FROM DENSITOMETRYChronology 1700 to 1980 (281 years) 8 trees, 16 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.011Median .996 1.005 1.005Mean sensitivity .227 .256 .219Standard deviation .273 .218 .284Skewness .394 .024 .370Kurtosis 5.200 2.937 4.853
Autocorrelation order 1 .464 -.025 .532Partial autocorr. order 2 .202 -.024 .254Partial autocorr. order 3 -.018 .048 .004
Variance from autoregression 34.6 pct 42.3 pctError variance .007127 .008205Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.151
Common interval 1857 to 1979 (123 years) 8 trees, 16 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .589 .525Between trees (Y variance) .573 .512Within trees .769 .680
Signal -to -noise ratio 10.72 8.39Agreement with pop. chron. .915 .893Variance in eigenvector 1 60.82 pct 55.16 pctChron. common interval mean 1.005 1.009Chron. common interval st dev .280 .219
124
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LIKELY MTN, CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREY'
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
RING WIDTH FROM DENSITOMETRY ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1700 238 154 188 94 80 152 115 95 131 95 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 21710 112 91 91 114 87 122 113 66 98 76 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21720 84 63 84 71 102 87 96 94 101 50 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21730 103 139 127 99 127 95 125 80 109 49 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21740 38 48 53 86 87 111 129 122 92 138 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21750 89 113 135 97 94 105 92 51 71 94 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21760 111 135 80 78 78 105 116 93 106 137 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 31770 89 105 73 62 72 71 75 39 80 98 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 51780 73 83 59 54 72 92 90 67 60 96 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 61790 104 122 124 90 85 61 84 91 81 114 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71800 77 101 106 127 127 138 122 117 123 149 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81810 137 158 105 115 118 117 102 117 106 107 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81820 117 119 80 79
,92 119 134 112 108 81 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
1830 112 92 132 104 115 115 139 105 121 70 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 11
1840 95 58 72 63 69 96 68 78 81 76 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 131850 89 111 121 123 121 126 92 97 96 68 13 13 13 13 13 15 15 16 16 161860 98 136 101 120 90 93 137 114 121 127 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161870 109 90 107 106 81 111 97 125 116 101 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161880 86 130 100 91 117 143 112 99 81 40 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161890 71 89 75 97 127 118 125 147 142 125 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161900 177 180 123 108 114 120 105 172 146 153 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161910 132 124 96 129 131 104 104 86 73 78 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161920 63 99 81 94 54 79 75 80 89 59 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161930 75 33 67 31 25 46 50 35 87 62 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161940 85 97 117 134 105 117 129 93 105 98 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161950 93 118 102 129 124 94 118 139 147 84 I6 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161960 88 56 89 102 107 113 111 119 84 126 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161970 124 126 131 109 105 127 91 99 129 85 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161980 149 15
126
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE ANT Sites no. 17, 18
Site name: ANTELOPE LAKESpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaDOUGLAS -FIR, Pseudotsuga menziesii
Country: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: PLUMASAdministration: PLUMAS NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Antelope Lake, CA 1978
Kettle Rock, CA 1978Genesee Valley, CA 1972
Elevation: 1366 -1561 m Latitude: 40° 09'N Longitude: 120° 36'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 26 No. of core samples: PIJE 57
PIPO 15 PIPO 33
PSME 2 PSME 3
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, SB
Site description:
Antelope Lake is a reservoir from damming Indian Creek and several other smalltributaries of the Feather River. It is 37 km (23 mi) northeast of the small villageof Taylorsville on Forest Road 29N43. The site includes four subsite areas whichborder this forest road and are from 1.6 km (1 mi) to 14.4 km (9 mi) southwest of thedam. All of the subsite areas are similar. The bedrock granite, characteristic of theSierra Nevada mountain range, has been weathered to a depth of 5 to 50 cm. The ridgesand slopes have thin soil while the benches, gully bottoms and flat areas haveconsiderably more. Slopes vary from 3° to 32° with a few of the sampled trees on theedges of short drops. Slopes face from northeast to southeast. The sampled treesrange from 12 to 26 m in height and 51 to 146 cm in diameter. The stand density varieswith both slope angle and slope aspect: east and south facing steep slopes are open.The flatter areas and the north and northeast slopes have dense mixed conifer forestsof ponderosa pine, Jeffrey pine, Douglas -fir, white fir (Abies concolor) and incensecedar (Libocedrus decurrens). All conifers appear healthy and all are regenerating.Several species of tree form and shrub form oaks (Quercus spp) are abundant. Barberry(Berberis spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), shepherd's bane (Chamabatia spp), manyspecies of composites, grasses, legumes and mustards indicate that the site is mesic.There is disturbance by logging, bulldozed roads and fires.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSANTELOPE LAKE, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1471 to 1980 (510 years) 25 trees, 56 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .998 1.002Median 1.013 1.006 1.020Mean sensitivity .145 .170 .140
Standard deviation .198 .152 .201Skewness -.238 -.479 -.353Kurtosis 3.782 3.942 3.633
Autocorrelation order 1 .596 -.006 .639
Partial autocorr. order 2 .140 -.005 .168Partial autocorr. order 3 ,102 .004 .075
Variance Erom autoregression 34.2 pct 41.7 pctError variance .004018 .003818Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .950
Common interval 1727 to 1980 (254 years) 22 trees, 34 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .348 .315Between trees (Y variance) .340 .309
Within trees .615 .522
Signal -to -noise ratio 11.32 9.83
Agreement with pop. chron. .919 .908
Variance in eigenvector 1 36.74 pct 33.60 pctChron. common interval mean .992 .998
Chron. common interval st dev .194 .143127
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TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1474 119 112 115 104 104 103 2 2 2 2 2 2
1480 109 144 121 123 127 147 141 128 122 124 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4
1490 121 114 12t 1t2 116 105 109 101 107 71 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 .5 5 51500 80 97 111 128 124 83 93 90 86 104 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7
1510 91 75 103 91 105 94 49 109 70 103 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 91520 113 102 97 95 123 127 101 105 118 89 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101530 94 97 64 73 87 90 123 105 123 127 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101540 77 48 92 88 82 87 84 94 84 97 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101550 99 124 104 97 86 109 103 116 128 135 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12
1560 131 125 119 123 131 116 115 98 99 107 12 12 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 141570 88 80 91 89 103 114 56 89 89 51 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1580 21 53 52 64 85 89 78 108 123 116 14 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161590 102 114 101 89 95 66 90 105 105 123 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 171600 96 117 103 97 99 114 99 99 103 97 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 181610 113 138 112 115 93 128 88 110 97 87 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 191620 84 88 96 99 98 115 61 73 94 60 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 17 171630 66 56 77 103 121 140 132 129 104 66 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 191640 105 142 112 114 118 112 104 120 113 109 19 18 18 19 19 20 20 20 21 21
1650 107 107 110 96 88 74 85 59 66 80 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 241660 114 114 99 98 96 84 103 66 72 97 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 251670 100 107 115 106 128 111 87 90 104 112 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 281680 105 108 125 104 114 120 100 16 118 107 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 251690 107 100 99 95 109 97 83 07 117 103 25 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 301700 117 99 132 92 85 107 100 01 110 119 30 32 32 32 32 32 33 33 34 351710 109 85 99 108 105 126 124 16 107 95 36 37 38 38 38 38 38 39 39 401720 108 84 73 94 87 83 94 03 110 99 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 421730 115 116 118 102 93 106 102 17 123 67 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421740 88 96 105 104 114 128 111 13 79 113 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421750 96 103 103 97 105 113 87 88 84 102 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 43 431760 90 113 101 95 86 100 100 93 97 85 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 44 441770 77 75 82 91 92 85 47 38 51 62 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451760 69 72 71 51 79 89 94 77 88 97 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451790 98 107 119 116 97 78 83 88 91 106 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461800 99 127 109 122 120 117 111 116 118 145 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461810 131 137 144 138 122 108 112 117 119 124 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461820 118 90 70 72 78 94 110 115 116 68 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 47 47 481830 85 91 108 111 93 122 124 121 111 109 48 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491840 107 101 102 98 74 109 75 79 83 79 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491850 74 80 77 97 71 104 90 97 93 84 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491860 117 134 105 115 87 89 107 99 116 108 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 49 491870 100 85 103 111 110 124 108 112 118 129 49 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 481880 102 120 105 99 107 109 84 91 84 75 48 48 48 48 48 48 47 47 47 471890 70 85 96 105 110 114 117 117 119 104 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 46 461900 151 136 119 124 132 125 134 160 166 137 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461910 136 129 107 117 96 87 101 101 88 105 46 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451920 85 105 89 110 69 87 98 79 83 58 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451930 78 77 57 66 67 58 57 48 64 58 45 45 45 44 44 44 42 42 42 421940 72 86 92 105 87 104 106 105 91 85 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421950 89 97 80 117 103 87 93 105 118 110 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1960 78 112 105 120 126 125 123 103 112 118 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1970 108 97 115 79 89 100 78 59 104 87 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1980 97 41
129
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSANTELOPE LAKE, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]Chronology 1484 to 1980 (497 years) 13 trees, 32 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .999 1.001Median 1.006 1.014 1.009
Mean sensitivity .172 .205 .169
Standard deviation .215 .173 .208
Skewness -.075 -.348 -.045Kurtosis 3.461 3.069 3.372
Autocorrelation order 1 .572 .003 .552Partial autocorr. order 2 .160 -.021 .166
Partial autocorr. order 3 .063 -.065 .025
Variance from autoregression 35.2 pct 32.9 pctError variance .004278 .005369Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN / STNDRD) 1.255
Common interval 1703 to 1975 (273 years) 11 trees, 24 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .396 .362Between trees (Y variance) .376 .350
Within trees .606 .507
Signal -to -noise ratio 6.63 5.91Agreement with pop. chron. .869 .855
Variance in eigenvector 1 41.89 pct 38.85 pctChron. common interval mean 1.007 1.002Chron. common interval st dev .215 .170
130
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131
ANTELOPE LAKE. CALIFORNIA P1NUS PONDEROSA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 t 2
ARSTAN CRRONOLOGT
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1485 101 96 96 114 114 1 1 .1 1 1
1490 99 130 97 133 121 103 100 85 82 87 1 I 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
1500 68 77 92 100 89 100 77 103 88 122 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 31510 102 113 117 107 111 119 67 82 61 83 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1520 99 90 92 130 147 147 137 136 147 114 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 51530 116 101 85 81 93 100 119 118 102 141 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7
1540 85 72 100 82 94 87 79 82 79 103 7 7 7 7 791550 89 116 83 88 78 86 97 110 124 132 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
1560 109 106 87 106 105 100 124 118 118 122 9 9 9 9 9 991570 100 94 98 119 103 116 46 68 90 64 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9
1580 30 55 83 97 109 108 83 110 130 117 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91590 100 110 84 89 86 51 88 107 85 99 11 11 11 11 11 I I1 11 11 11
1600 94 102 88 96 94 128 129 105 119 112 11 11 11 11 11 1 11 11 11 11
1610 149 147 127 107 103 135 113 140 99 94 11 11 11 11 11131620 60 78 78 83 89 108 73 82 10I 74 13 13 13 13 13 3 13 13 13
1630 62 47 67 86 104 111 103 103 75 53 13 13 13 13 13 3 13 14 14 151640 78 115 87 86 102 87 79 96 88 85 15 16 16 16 16
91650 103 110 104 98 89 71 81 55 66 82 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 191660 94 107 91 115 99 114 126 88 85 104 19 19 19 19 19 9 19 19 19 191670 108 114 120 115 104 111 87 92 100 110 19 19 19 19 21 21 22 23 231680 87 109 118 98 106 118 105 124 124 126 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 25 2516901700
114108
10985
109124
10887
12988
106118
79101
124118
112131
83125
2527
2527
2527
2628
26 2728 28
2728
2728 2817101720
103112
7691
I0577
122106
101104
13194
146121
131116
114134
7587
2828
2828
2828
2828
28 2828 28
28 2828
2828
2828
17301740
11196
108107
123113
106127
95122
118135
104116
121123
12181
78107
2828
2828
2828
2828
28 2829 29
2829
28 2829 29
1750 93 96 110 90 108 119 84 86 80 104 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 301760 92 116 96 94 92 94 93 95 99 95 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301770 79 89 96 109 104 109 58 43 56 72 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301780 85 76 85 53 87 104 100 64 88 96 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301790 93 117 117 125 93 70 71 86 96 109 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 311800 99 115 88 108 116 110 110 113 110 138 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 3I1810 128 134 144 130 127 104 115 89 113 111 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
1820 109 71 71 54 81 117 105 108 66 79 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 311830 69 86 110 107 88 115 122 118 94 94 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
1840 105 110 94 108 68 114 78 69 75 65 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 311850 75 89 75 88 64 96 87 84 94 69 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 1
18601870
93108
11192
84108
93121
7592
86125
115102
104112
105105
107124
3131
31
31
3131
31 31 3131 30
3130
3130
3130
3130
1880 87 120 89 94 99 126 91 100 92 70 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291890 70 111 104 116 123 110 135 141 120 107 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291900 152 127 131 123 128 127 149 174 167 145 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291910 116 113 108 110 100 91 116 93 86 114 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291920 85 106 87 108 68 82 107 96 101 67 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291930 100 92 65 61 76 66 71 54 80 74 29 29 29 29 29 29 27 27 27 271940 85 102 116 130 104 120 126 118 92 65 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271950 93 101 82 123 117 88 104 118 120 106 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271960 90 106 107 127 116 125 114 98 97 115 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271970 100 94 105 73 83 97 75 47 97 74 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 26 26 261980 90 26
132
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE BLU Site no. 19
Site name: BLUE BANKSSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE,Pinus jeffreyi
INCENSE CEDAR, Libocedrus decurrensCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MENDOCINOAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Plaskett Ridge, CA 1967Elevation: 1537 -1659 m Latitude: 39° 40'N Longitude: 122° 58'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 29 No. of core samples: PIJE 65
LIDE 1 LIDE 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LOW, KL
Site description:
The name "Blue Banks" derives from the metamorphic serpentine bedrock which rangesin color from a light robins' egg blue to a very dark green. Access to Blue Banks inthe northern Coast Ranges of California is through Elk Creek west southwest 43.2 km (27mi). Elk Creek is 33.6 km (21 mi) west of Willows on State Highway 162. There isalmost no soil on Blue Banks, some colluvial- alluvial soil in the gully bottoms andoutwash flats, and igneous bedrock outcrops nearby with more soil. The majority of thesampled Jeffrey pine are on fairly steep (15° to 35 °) northeast, east and southeastfacing serpentine slopes. A few sampled trees are in flat locations. The height ofsampled trees is 6 to 22 m, and diameter ranges from 46 to 170 cm. The stand is veryopen on the serpentine bedrock ridge, but denser in areas of less serpentine. Thereare sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana), red fir (Abies magnifica) and incense cedar exceptin the pure serpentine outcrops. Some oaks (Quercus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylosspp) and buck brush (Ceanothus spp) comprise the understory. In addition, there arenative and non -native grasses, buckwheats (Eriogonum spp), some lupines (Lupinus spp)and composites.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSBLUE BANKS, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1318 to 1980 (663 years) 24 trees, 57 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .996 1.001Median .981 .987 .977Mean sensitivity .157 .161 .153Standard deviation .195 .144 .191Skewness 1.338 .500 1.339Kurtosis 8.594 3.695 8.634
Autocorrelation order 1 .449 -.001 .448Partial autocorr. order 2 .178 -.008 .155Partial autocorr. order 3 .102 -.062 .145
Variance from autoregression 19.5 pct 15.9 pctError variance .005447 .004417Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .811
Common interval 1656 to 1926 (271 years) 16 trees, 30 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .299 .343Between trees (Y variance) .285 .334Within trees .553 .508
Signal -to -noise ratio 6.38 8.03Agreement with pop. chron. .865 .889Variance in eigenvector 1 32.55 pct 36.74 pctChron. common interval mean 1.008 1.004Chron. common interval st dev .168 .149
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BLUE BANKS. CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREY'
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1320 110 83 99 114 79 72 75 76 65 58 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1330 85 86 96 1 1 0 105 71 163 154 136 160 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1
1340 232 213 166 137 132 107 103 102 98 83 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 21350 120 82 107 77 102 80 93 109 122 104 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1360 83 71 62 65 85 78 96 137 87 93 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21370 93 112 110 81 104 81 82 64 79 119 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21380 128 69 157 124 49 80 55 85 112 61 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1390 63 102 107 99 161 118 111 78 108 110 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21400 125 92 119 93 131 98 91 75 106 91 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21410 89 124 152 Iii 159 156 124 126 139 96 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 41420 117 116 110 121 95 78 83 114 100 113 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 61430 91 90 110 66 84 85 53 67 79 94 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 91440 85 103 104 112 111 102 130 127 99 117 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91450 107 96 93 115 137 105 104 78 93 91 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91460 120 97 105 107 93 99 73 83 83 77 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 101470 95 102 87 96 76 84 80 101 106 93 10 10 10 10 10 10 ii 11 11 11
1480 104 100 96 116 109 90 98 64 85 89 11 11 11 11 11 I1 11 11 11 11
1490 95 109 92 84 94 88 135 91 119 118 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 131500 91 107 109 112 96 126 90 95 107 93 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 151510 67 96 94 89 81 85 83 95 97 92 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161520 103 100 85 89 87 84 85 78 95 106 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 161530 94 82 80 74 115 96 107 82 125 124 17 17 17 19 19 19 20 20 21 211540 100 110 110 127 109 90 83 94 88 100 21 20 20 20 20 20 22 24 24 241550 129 122 115 100 80 80 103 96 115 110 24 24 24 26 26 26 26 26 26 261560 96 118 115 114 109 90 116 93 88 98 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261570 94 108 107 101 99 119 103 116 114 113 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261580 92 92 111 118 104 139 115 106 113 104 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 301590 116 110 108 82 118 84 78 103 103 100 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 311600 110 79 129 97 76 101 102 105 112 107 31 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 331610 133 113 99 112 86 90 84 107 110 98 34 34 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 351620 102 109 134 91 100 87 86 88 84 86 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 36 371630 82 92 117 115 105 115 123 86 85 100 37 37 37 37 37 37 38 38 38 381640 83 122 142 115 122 107 79 96 85 87 38 38 38 38 38 39 39 39 39 391650 93 93 106 81 105 96 99 91 98 96 40 40 40 40 40 40 41 41 41 411660 90 101 91 110 92 87 93 103 93 106 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 411670 105 113 92 125 113 97 95 85 99 81 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 421680 90 137 106 77 85 87 75 86 94 82 42 42 42 42 41 41 40 40 40 401690 83 107 82 80 83 112 95 96 83 88 40 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 36 381700 98 90 138 90 102 109 95 111 114 87 37 37 37 39 39 39 39 39 39 391710 119 92 97 90 83 99 99 101 86 98 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 401720 111 109 113 110 89 90 127 120 92 88 40 40 43 43 43 44 44 44 44 451730 93 97 114 91 71 79 83 104 119 113 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451740 111 88 108 92 107 99 96 100 74 106 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451750 94 104 101 99 80 118 93 88 119 106 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 46 451760 93 123 113 100 86 112 103 106 120 87 45 45 46 47 47 47 47 47 47 471770 110 77 84 100 91 90 101 86 84 93 47 47 47 47 47 47 46 45 45 451780 103 74 81 72 85 87 93 92 92 85 45 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 46 461790 98 105 109 119 108 107 96 89 94 115 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461800 98 87 88 116 108 105 95 103 102 124 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461810 128 115 132 125 146 98 119 103 110 107 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461820 79 81 100 83 100 104 95 87 118 113 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 45 45 451830 83 87 114 95 87 92 90 111 107 90 45 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441840 95 111 92 95 92 108 97 90 87 79 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441850 70 100 104 97 102 108 109 113 86 61 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 431860 101 108 72 89 104 71 106 85 99 104 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431870 93 92 91 98 91 128 98 105 102 108 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431880 90 93 99 95 127 166 110 99 97 112 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431890 81 89 128 97 120 124 115 147 124 130 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431900 158 136 122 120 98 110 107 142 135 100 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431910 99 103 127 161 130 127 129 98 91 118 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431920 91 110 83 127 95 79 113 91 79 76 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 42 42 411930 77 103 97 73 115 79 '92 81 88 103 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 39 391940 93 111 115 110 106 97 79 102 96 94 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 391950 95 97 92 88 104 85 74 97 114 85 39 38 38 38 37 37 37 37 37 371960 81 85 95 86 102 90 90 73 93 96 37 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351970 81 79 105 84 84 63 72 93 77 74 35 34 33 33 32 31 31 29 29 281980 97 28
135
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE HHA Site no. 20
Site name: HELLS HALF ACRESpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MENDOCINOAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Hull Mountain, CA 1967Elevation: 1890 -1954 m Latitude: 39° 36'N Longitude: 122° 57'WNo. of trees sampled: 13 No. of core samples: 28Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LOW, KL
Site description:
Hell's Half Acre is a small 2.5 square km (1 square mi) meadow area in the CoastRange of northern California near the headwaters of the Eel River. It is 35.2 km (22mi) west of the village of Elk Creek, which is 33.6 km (21 mi) west of Willows on StateHighway 162. In this meadow area four subsites were sampled. There is very littleslope at any subsite, and the slope is a maximum of 150 and south facing in a fewlocations. Bedrock where exposed is a metamorphic schist in three areas and igneous inone. The site is in a colluvial situation with over 40 cm of soil. The sampled treesrange from 9 to 16 m in height and 73 to 135 cm in diameter. In the exposedmetamorphic schist the stand is open. Off the bedrock, the stand is a closed mixedconifer forest of Jeffrey pine, sugar pine ( Pinus lambertiana) and red fir (Abiesmagnifica). The understory is buck brush (Ceanothus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylosspp) and in some locations willow (Salix spp). All of the subsite areas show evidenceof fire and logging.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSHELLS HALF ACRE, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]
Chronology 1497 to 1980 (484 years) 13 trees, 30 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.004Median .982 .995 .991
Mean sensitivity .151 .180 .160
Standard deviation .175 .157 .169Skewness .332 .038 .290Kurtosis 3.507 3.524 3.693
Autocorrelation order 1 .403 -.041 .291
Partial autocorr. order 2 .069 -.047 -.037Partial autocorr. order 3 .131 -.026 .154
Variance from autoregression 13.9 pct 6.5 pctError variance .003867 .002770Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .716
Common interval 1682 to 1948 (267 years) 10 trees, 19 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .288 .366Between trees (Y variance) .270 .352Within trees .541 .564
Signal -to -noise ratio 3.70 5.44Agreement with pop. chron. .787 .845
Variance in eigenvector 1 32.52 pct 39.93 pctChron. common interval mean 1.000 1.000Chron. common interval st dev .161 .155
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HELLS HALF ACRE. CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREY!
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1497 144 159
9
151
0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 I I
1500 1 1 8 142 100 118 121 1 1 8 86 77 81 107 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1510 116 146 106 102 94 111 70 84 101 78 1 I 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4
1520 109 42 77 80 115 98 80 80 98 112 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 6
1530 96 96 82 79 115 99 99 111 149 133 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8
1540 95 115 96 94 94 79 73 106 85 105 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
1550 131 124 120 108 78 83 9! 73 96 85 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10
1560 87 132 126 137 125 107 94 75 94 95 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 II 11
1570 89 94 88 95 102 105 91 106 108 100 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12
1580 101 88 112 121 96 127 113 97 124 111 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14
1590 126 99 91 80 109 89 86 116 102 93 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 17
1600 121 69 95 77 78 98 93 91 101 83 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18
1610 102 107 91 109 104 101 87 99 111 92 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 19 19
1620 99 105 120 114 108 93 88 83 92 80 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20
1630 90 99 119 121 100 99 133 100 89 112 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
1640 97 120 142 122 116 123 89 87 92 89 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
1650 83 96 106 87 Ill 89 79 86 87 92 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
1660 91 106 103 117 92 102 116 121 91 129 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 23
1670 139 120 76 115 111 94 101 98 112 99 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24
1680 90 134 108 74 85 88 99 83 99 98 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
1690 104 116 99 99 108 125 88 92 78 93 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
1700 95 93 121 96 101 124 95 82 108 81 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
1710 99 88 111 105 91 89 98 117 107 105 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
1720 115 114 114 115 86 92 128 109 82 77 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1730 102 110 102 97 91 113 104 101 104 128 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1740 88 69 91 109 115 122 110 107 87 91 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1750 97 89 83 84 68 86 89 86 94 99 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1760 82 116 109 93 102 129 106 100 114 81 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1770 103 77 96 91 88 90 101 98 86 108 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
1780 111 83 95 79 100 91 88 91 120 98 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
1790 93 117 101 107 120 114 87 94 100 107 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
1800 119 76 82 108 97 114 105 110 98 118 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
1810 110 121 118 105 124 114 117 94 97 97 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28
1820 84 90 102 80 99 89 110 86 124 128 28 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 27
1830 89 93 134 101 103 90 73 102 100 91 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25
1840 100 114 77 98 92 87 97 101 108 97 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1850 91 104 122 85 82 120 104 111 89 49 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1860 97 120 66 85 100 84 76 92 90 108 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1870 96 71 91 107 92 136 100 105 121 95 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1880 83 115 107 101 127 161 80 82 106 105 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
1890 66 98 116 80 96 108 74 107 115 103 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 26
1900 134 135 95 92 97 87 98 117 107 90 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
1910 78 101 130 137 111 118 109 92 95 124 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
1920 94 89 104 131 99 80 142 79 49 62 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24
1930 90 111 98 73 135 115 110 98 110 122 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24
1940 102 102 110 109 101 104 109 116 92 120 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 23
1950 121 107 86 73 77 75 88 107 124 101 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 231960 66 95 121 91 106 102 120 90 93 109 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
1970 99 68 85 92 67 75 82 99 105 107 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1980 118 21
1J3
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE SSH Site no. 21
Site name: SUMMIT SPRINGS HILLSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
SUGAR PINE, Pinus lambertianaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: GLENNAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Felkner Hill, CA 1968Elevation: 1756 -1811 m Latitude: 39° 36'N Longitude: 122° 44'W
No. of trees sampled: PIPO 14 No. of core samples: PIPO 27
PILA 1 PILA 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LOW
Site -description:
Summit Springs Hill in the Coast Range of northern California is 17.6 km (11 mi)west northwest of the village of Elk Creek. Elk Creek is 33.6 km (21 mi) northwest of
the town of Willows on State Highway 162. The sampled trees range from 5 to 18 m inheight and 45 to 106 cm in diameter, and are on the southwestern ridge and flank ofSummit Springs Hill. The south southwest to east facing 10° to 30° slopes have very
little soil accumulation. Bedrock is a metamorphic mix of schists and greenstone. Theopen overstory is a combination of ponderosa pine and sugar pine. The limited, openunderstory of buck brush (Ceanothus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp) and some oaks(Quercus spp) is in completion with many young conifers. According to a localforester, a quarry operation in 1974 removed large amounts of rock and soil from thesouth southeast section of Summit Springs Hill. A large bare scar is still veryprominent. The forester also said the area has been logged at least twice, in 1950 -52and in 1977. Many large stumps were observed, and there is evidence of forest fires.The large amount of disturbance may have caused the stand to be open.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSUMMIT SPRINGS HILL, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]Chronology 1582 to 1980 (399 years) 12 trees, 26 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 .999 .996
Median .993 .993 .987
Mean sensitivity .150 .165 .151
Standard deviation .166 .144 .162
Skewness .104 .238 .190
Kurtosis 3.480 3.124 3.518
Autocorrelation order 1 .351 -.006 .299
Partial autocorr. order 2 .181 .011 .154
Partial autocorr. order 3 .109 -.082 .032
Variance Erom autoregression 17.5 pct 13.4 pct
Error variance .005278 .003627Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .6872
Common interval 1686 to 1830 (145 years) 9 trees, 19 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .241 .294
Between trees (Y variance) .212 .275
Within trees .496 .465
Signal -to -noise ratio 2.42 3.42
Agreement with pop. chron. .707 .774
Variance in eigenvector 1 29.50 pct 33.75 pctChron. common interval mean 1.006 .997
Chron. common interval st dev .156 .140
139
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SUMMIT SPRINGS HILL. CALIFORNIA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5
PINUS PONDEROSA
6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1583 46 78 64 97 117 102 93 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1590 159 138 89 75 91 140 77 89 93 78 1 1 1 1 I I 2 3 3 41600 87 69 91 67 72 66 78 59 94 82 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 51610 124 84 62 98 84 122 110 106 135 87 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 71620 111 117 128 98 116 92 88 85 89 89 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 13 131630 85 105 124 111 124 121 123 90 103 107 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 151640 92 137 136 123 107 103 80 91 87 110 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151650 107 106 103 97 132 105 113 94 111 103 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151660 99 105 109 128 95 104 108 111 115 127 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 171670 108 123 94 107 85 72 69 72 84 99 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 17 17 171680 95 133 100 77 85 87 72 74 87 86 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 191690 95 128 99 97 103 105 93 117 88 94 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 201700 107 108 156 98 113 112 95 106 110 77 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 211710 99 88 105 94 95 117 108 109 87 95 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221720 92 105 106 104 80 87 96 101 91 77 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221730 102 109 100 92 79 93 79 81 84 78 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221740 70 77 97 92 101 94 103 87 77 98 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221750 105 105 94 90 84 117 81 81 110 101 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221760 94 122 105 84 68 94 111 100 123 96 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221770 128 81 102 109 103 118 104 94 91 106 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221780 120 74 103 97 107 119 115 107 125 104 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221790 104 130 122 118 92 73 75 81 87 108 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 231800 90 81 92 106 116 108 95 97 103 119 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 231810 112 125 129 110 118 96 120 86 99 116 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 231820 103 111 108 103 100 93 90 84 122 88 23 23 23 24 24 24 24 24 24 241830 82 84 108 93 82 99 92 104 101 91 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 231840 98 108 87 94 95 131 119 107 96 104 22 22 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 201850 96 111 110 100 93 106 104 106 83 56 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 171860 93 97 73 94 99 82 111 91 107 99 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 161870 101 84 98 94 93 122 90 105 96 109 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161880 80 97 84 105 119 131 96 106 101 110 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 15 151890 89 88 104 91 108 108 100 134 121 112 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 151900 123 128 114 103 87 96 102 111 110 86 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141910 107 89 121 128 106 115 113 96 92 121 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141920 97 122 83 121 100 79 117 85 97 78 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141930 96 118 100 84 130 86 93 76 98 101 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141940 97 104 119 102 105 108 106 125 108 114 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141950 98 104 86 93 111 81 84 98 114 87 14 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 131960 91 107 96 97 110 118 91 90 96 114 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 121970 93 81 103 85 90 71 83 68 82 86 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11
1980 113 11
141
142
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE LEM Site no. 22
Site name: LEMON CANYONSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
SUGAR PINE, Pinus lambertianaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: SIERRAAdministration: TAHOE NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Sierraville, CA 1955
USGS 15' series, Loyalton, CA 1955Elevation: 1707 -2012 m Latitude: 39° 34'N Longitude: 120° 15'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 35 No. of core samples: PIJE 70
PILA 1 PILA 1
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, SB, MRR, RR
Site description:
The mouth of Lemon Canyon is 4 km (2.5 mi) east southeast of the village ofSierraville in eastern California, near the California- Nevada border 32 km (20 mi) westof Reno, Nevada. The site consists of four subsites over 3.8 km (2 mi) along LemonCanyon Road east of the mouth of Lemon Canyon and west of the intersection ofCottonwood Road, and a fifth subsite in Dark Canyon 3.8 km (2 mi) north of LemonCanyon. The bedrock geology of all the subsites is an igneous mixture of lightlyweathered basalts, andesites, latites and dacites. In several locations there areunconsolidated ashy materials in colluvial and alluvial outwashes. The majority of thesampled trees are on moderately to fairly steep (14° to 32 °) southwest and west facingslopes and ridge crests. Soil in most subsites is very thin except in the ashy outwashcolluvial -alluvial locations where soil depth is over 50 cm. The stand density isopen; the crowns of the older trees do not touch. This may be a reflection of loggingand fires as cut stumps of large trees can be seen in every area. This is particularlyevident in Dark Canyon where many trees show long scorch marks and there are largelogged areas. Vigorous young trees are replacing the logged and burned out trees.This is a mixed conifer forest with Jeffrey pine, sugar pine, red fir (Abiesmagnifica), western juniper (Juniperus occidentalis) and incense cedar (Libocedrusdecurrens). The understory consists of sagebrush (Artemisia spp), bitter brush(Purshia spp), mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp),barberry (Berberís spp), several composites and some varieties of grasses.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSLEMON CANYON, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1415 to 1980 (566 years) 34 trees, 64 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 .998Median 1.004 1.012 1.006Mean sensitivity .199 .228 .198Standard deviation .235 .198 .221Skewness -.249 -.427 -.264Kurtosis 3.659 3.719 3.671
Autocorrelation order 1 .504 .010 .433Partial autocorr. order 2 .152 -.003 .095Partial autocorr. order 3 -.013 -.002 -.007
Variance from autoregression 22.8 pct 16.3 pctError variance .003928 .002794Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .711
Common interval 1783 to 1980 (198 years) 32 trees, 58 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .393 .439Between trees (Y variance) .385 .433Within trees .748 .718
Signal -to -noise ratio 20.02 24.47Agreement with pop. chron. .952 .961
Variance in eigenvector 1 40.09 pct 44.73 pctChron. common interval mean 1.004 1.001Chron. common interval st dev .222 .195
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143
LEMON CANYON, CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREYI
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESQATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1415 53 73 102 82 84 1 1
1420 74 90 117 90 101 119 67 86 81 46 1 1 1 1 1
1430 64 93 72 86 83 68 94 75 75 73 1 1 1 1 1
1440 87 62 49 19 43 60 89 98 107 91 1 1 I 1 1
1450 138 129 141 129 173 105 118 108 121 79 1 1 1 1 1
1460 130 95 122 121 70 102 67 93 125 121 1 1 1 1 1
1470 138 112 117 120 97 124 128 112 126 81 1 1 1 1 1
1480 145 111 143 158 106 121 103 118 148 128 1 1 I 2 2 2 2 2
1490 78 99 109 79 71 44 95 87 74 60 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31500 49 74 85 125 110 107 132 111 105 109 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31510 117 137 90 132 105 71 45 102 54 87 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31520 100 138 120 66 103 131 97 74 102 102 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 41530 94 87 60 68 82 111 102 96 105 125 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 51540 101 66 83 126 104 87 75 88 81 97 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51550 101 116 131 123 84 94 123 122 128 149 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 101560 107 94 99 101 122 110 118 100 102 99 11 11 11 11 11 1 11 11 11 11
1570 85 89 124 115 122 121 72 102 107 77 11 11 11 11 11 1 11 11 11 11
1580 15 63 88 114 102 126 131 143 139 137 11 11 11 11 I1 1 11 12 12 12
1590 116 120 97 88 112 90 96 106 103 111 12 12 12 12 13 3 13 13 15 151600 105 107 119 105 99 102 97 86 115 97 15 15 15 16 16 6 16 16 16 171610 136 125 104 75 81 107 88 107 109 74 19 19 19 19 19 9 20 20 20 201620 83 89 93 93 100 119 93 85 99 36 20 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 221630 79 86 87 113 106 106 136 93 93 47 22 22 22 23 23 23 24 24 24 241640 74 121 135 144 145 128 92 99 102 107 24 24 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 281650 118 89 112 96 81 49 96 72 73 94 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 311660 114 145 120 145 117 80 122 71 106 113 31 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 321670 106 114 113 114 132 114 83 95 114 113 32 33 33 34 34 34 34 35 35 361680 87 119 101 92 108 98 106 110 111 93 36 36 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381690 98 72 99 91 100 98 102 118 93 137 38 39 39 39 39 40 40 40 40 401700 122 89 123 71 65 94 71 90 94 87 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41 411710 96 88 100 108 99 119 124 105 74 80 41 41 41 42 42 43 43 44 44 441720 91 77 86 107 97 109 129 121 97 62 44 44 44 45 46 46 47 47 47 471730 100 95 115 108 103 101 105 101 116 103 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 481740 96 84 99 106 103 124 108 108 74 111 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 481750 106 97 94 100 96 124 84 79 100 96 48 48 48 48 50 50 50 50 50 501760 104 126 100 98 88 70 100 97 105 106 50 50 50 50 51 51 51 52 52 521770 105 96 103 120 116 125 60 57 77 87 52 52 53 55 55 55 56 57 57 581780 106 88 72 65 92 101 106 70 85 101 58 58 59 62 62 62 62 62 62 631790 95 103 118 112 89 48 69 80 81 100 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 631800 103 97 104 109 127 127 119 101 115 138 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 631810 147 151 122 Iii 114 105 127 111 123 127 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 631820 118 101 53 77 87 107 120 108 143 43 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 63 631830 89 88 128 Ili 105 108 121 122 118 116 63 63 63 63 63 64 64 64 64 641840 102 85 87 92 66 115 84 79 86 89 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641850 74 80 115 109 98 115 82 103 81 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641860 103 123 74 95 88 65 112 90 112 111 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641870 95 67 95 105 81 102 91 111 103 117 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641880 68 92 93 84 105 148 89 110 93 83 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641890 90 100 103 98 122 112 91 107 99 97 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641900 143 135 94 89 100 110 112 157 153 114 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641910 93 94 91 130 114 91 106 98 90 97 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641920 93 133 80 111 42 102 122 80 101 69 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 64 641930 102 99 73 53 79 76 75 54 85 64 64 64 63 62 62 62 62 61 61 611940 110 126 136 131 99 119 115 115 97 95 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 601950 101 116 105 118 97 99 105 125 131 109 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 601960 77 72 92 117 116 114 115 94 110 125 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 601970 101 108 115 73 98 86 52 67 92 73 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 601980 92 60
144
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE FEL Site no. 23
Site name: FELKNER RIDGESpecies collected: SUGAR PINE, Pinus lambertianaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: GLENNAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Felkner Hill, CA 1968Elevation: 1433 -1555 m Latitude: 39° 30'N Longitude: 122° 40'WNo. of trees sampled: 35 No. of core samples: 56Date of collection: NOV 1977 Collector: LOW
Site description:
This site was collected, dated and measured by Lester O. White, retired foresterof the Mendocino National Forest, who contributed the measurements to the Laboratory ofTree -Ring Research. Samples were examined and dating verified by project personnel.The site is in the northern Coast Range of California, on a northwest to southeasttrending ridge that parallels Ponderosa Way, a forest road above Briscoe Creek 16 km(10 mi) southwest of the village of Elk Creek. The gravelly loam soils are derivedfrom sedimentary rocks of the Great Valley sequence. The sampled flat ridge top waslogged in 1967 and most of the samples are v -cuts from the stumps of the old growthsugar pine which appears to have been in an open stand. Associated tree species areponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), knobcone pine (Pinus attenuata), incense cedar(Libocedrus decurrens), Douglas -fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and understory of oaks(Quercus spp), mountain mahogany (Cercocarßus spp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp) andmanzanita (Arctostaphylos spp).
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSFELKNER RIDGE, CALIFORNIA [PILA]Chronology 1543 to 1980 (438 years) 28 trees, 56 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.009 .997Median 1.010 1.018 1.009Mean sensitivity .146 .153 .143Standard deviation .186 .137 .167Skewness -.800 -.592 -.817Kurtosis 4.870 5.176 4.802
Autocorrelation order 1 .538 -.016 .413Partial autocorr. order 2 .260 -.044 .217Partial autocorr. order 3 .110 -.011 .104
Variance from autoregression 19.2 pct 11.8 pctError variance .003950 .002934Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .743
Common interval 1825 to 1964 (140 years) 26 trees, 49 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .237 .367Between trees (Y variance) .229 .363Within trees .575 .561
Signal -to -noise ratio 7.73 14.81Agreement with pop. chron. .886 .937Variance in eigenvector 1 26.10 pct 38.20 pctChron. common interval mean 1.010 1.002Chron. common interval st dev .138 .126
145
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FELKNER RIDGE. CALIFORNIA PINUS LAMBERTIANA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1544 53 54 49 55 64 58 1 2 2 1 2 21550 71 77 69 61 49 34 56 93 100 100 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21560 72 89 105 119 109 83 85 90 91 72 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21570 90 80 108 76 111 109 111 97 118 84 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31580 55 96 73 40 54 74 93 81 95 89 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 51590 94 07 78 60 88 91 96 112 111 124 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61600 13 09 134 109 92 122 112 85 108 105 6 6 6 7 7 7 9 9 9 91610 33 12 117 82 111 104 85 97 100 127 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 111620 17 20 120 106 97 104 81 107 80 85 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 111630 10 99 121 136 131 119 121 80 84 78 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 131640 00 17 123 123 133 120 110 106 110 127 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 141650 04 06 108 87 118 88 101 96 112 103 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141660 04 13 95 115 107 106 108 63 125 103 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 161670 96 17 100 102 120 98 98 77 108 92 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 171680 01 43 111 96 107 93 75 89 88 104 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 181690 96 16 98 96 107 91 92 97 101 108 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 191700 10 02 146 96 112 93 90 113 100 88 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 211710 86 95 106 86 98 104 109 98 107 89 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 211720 93 04 109 105 101 98 115 123 77 74 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 23 241730 97 81 107 83 118 97 100 109 118 132 24 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 25 251740 118 97 114 103 108 115 96 95 87 104 25 25 25 27 27 27 27 27 27 271750 103 91 117 95 94 122 79 85 98 101 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 301760 101 120 98 101 85 102 110 110 107 119 30 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301770 124 92 109 121 112 111 84 91 87 82 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301780 103 87 94 106 121 121 128 109 92 100 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 321790 108 123 123 131 88 93 111 84 88 107 32 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 361800 84 95 81 107 113 121 116 105 123 118 37 38 38 41 41 42 42 42 44 451810 110 112 126 107 120 109 121 98 109 117 45 45 46 46 46 46 46 47 47 471820 104 93 90 95 84 99 88 98 113 34 47 48 48 49 50 51 51 51 51 511830 92 81 96 96 94 109 104 103 108 106 51 52 52 52 52 53 53 53 53 531840 98 95 102 91 81 110 93 92 97 86 53 53 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 541850 75 95 95 104 108 110 102 108 96 74 54 54 54 55 55 55 55 55 55 551860 III 110 103 108 104 80 109 89 112 118 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 551870 94 89 99 83 88 91 97 97 100 121 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 551880 101 Ill 90 102 118 104 106 107 110 99 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 54 541890 98 102 110 88 103 108 109 110 99 103 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 541900 122 120 111 98 96 107 96 113 105 94 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 53 531910 90 101 96 104 109 123 108 90 72 88 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531920 78 99 79 103 62 96 101 103 95 85 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531930 102 113 100 92 123 86 98 92 107 87 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531940 108 122 124 121 124 97 97 110 109 103 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531950 99 115 100 99 107 97 101 122 120 89 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531960 119 103 91 115 88 101 90 97 96 107 53 53 53 53 53 52 50 50 32 321970 89 110 104 84 101 89 73 73 90 117 32 32 32 32 30 30 30 30 2 21980 39 2
147
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE SJM Site no. 24
Site name: SAINT JOHN MOUNTAINSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
SUGAR PINE, Pinus lambertianaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: GLENNAdministration: MENDOCINO NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, St. John Mountain, CA 1968Elevation: 1427 -1939 m Latitude: 39° 26'N Longitude: 122° 41'WNo. of trees sampled: PIPO 26 No. of core samples: PIPO 57
PILA 1 PILA 2
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LW, KL
Site description:
Saint John Mountain is in the Coast Range of northern California, 40 km (25 mi)west southwest of the town of Willows. Access is through the small village ofStonyford, 11.2 km (7 mi) northwest to Saint John Mountain. The mountain separates theNorth Fork from the Middle Fork of Stony Creek. The three subsite areas, along theroad which climbs the southeast ridge of the mountain, have a bedrock base of meta -volcanic rocks. Two subsites are in relatively flat (2° to 15 °) locations along thesoutheast ridge crest of the mountain. Some sampled trees are on steep drops at themargins of the ridge. The subsites face northeast, east and southeast. In the flatterareas there is moderate accumulation of soil to a depth of 30 cm. At the ridge marginsthere is almost no soil. The sampled trees range from 6 to 19 m in height and 39 to 89cm in diameter. The dominant ponderosa pine is in open to semi -open stands. Sugarpine and red fir (Abies magnifica) are also present. At the higher elevations theunderstory is thin; at lower elevations ground cover consists of buck brush (Ceanothusspp), bitter brush (Purshia spp) and manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp). According to alocal forester, there is less disturbance by man here than at any other local timberstand. Many trees bear the scars of forest fires or signs of insect infestations.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSST. JOHN MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]
Chronology 1500 to 1980 (481 years) 25 trees, 55 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.001
Median .985 .989 .991
Mean sensitivity .158 .181 .166
Standard deviation .179 .160 .164
Skewness .517 .248 .395
Kurtosis 3.619 3.565 3.641
Autocorrelation order 1 .379 -.037 .170
Partial autocorr. order 2 .169 -.056 .095
Partial autocorr. order 3 .130 -.048 .129
Variance from autoregression 15.8 pct 4.4 pct
Error variance .007555 .004118Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .545
Common interval 1706 to 1974 (269 years) 17 trees, 31 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .238 .290
Between trees (Y variance) .223 .280
Within trees .581 .528
Signal -to -noise ratio 4.88 6.62
Agreement with pop. chron. .830 .869
Variance in eigenvector 1 26.45 pct 31.43 pctChron. common interval mean 1.001 1.002
Chron. common interval st dev .161 .150
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9611
286
117
8289
9497
115
116
2929
2929
2929
2929
3030
1670
101
120
101
116
127
114
8779
107
100
3232
3233
3333
3434
3434
1670
9511
790
115
118
101
7877
115
105
3131
3232
3232
3333
3334
1680
101
154
100
8486
9590
9395
9734
3436
3636
3636
3636
3616
8010
215
483
7380
106
9599
101
102
3434
3434
3436
3636
3636
1690
9712
510
210
394
120
101
100
7594
3737
3838
3939
3939
3939
1690
9812
895
9889
120
9595
7110
136
3636
3737
3838
3939
3917
0010
610
114
192
113
125
100
106
113
7740
4040
4141
4141
4141
4117
0011
310
314
079
108
117
9110
310
773
3939
3940
4040
4141
4141
1710
100
8498
9871
9810
110
193
9941
4141
4141
4141
4141
4117
1010
387
106
101
7710
910
910
791
9941
4141
4141
4141
4141
4117
2094
104
115
111
9287
120
119
8783
4141
4141
4141
4141
4141
1720
9610
411
610
785
8612
311
679
8241
4141
4141
4141
4141
4117
3010
598
114
9085
116
111
118
131
131
4139
3939
4040
3941
4141
1730
110
103
116
8887
120
109
114
122
119
4139
3939
3939
3839
3939
1740
9584
9810
810
510
010
099
8294
4141
4141
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4141
1740
7874
9911
210
796
9998
8310
041
4141
4141
4141
4141
4117
5011
911
710
610
078
126
9281
115
108
4141
4141
4242
4242
4444
1750
123
116
9993
7313
185
8111
910
641
4141
4141
4141
4242
4217
6090
119
100
9378
9599
9710
476
4444
4444
4444
4444
4444
1760
8911
994
8879
105
105
101
105
7542
4444
4444
4444
4444
4417
7011
371
110
110
9811
210
790
8585
4444
4443
4343
4343
4343
1770
121
7312
011
098
108
103
8885
9244
4444
4343
4343
4343
4317
8097
7086
6989
9387
9010
890
4343
4343
4343
4444
4444
1780
107
7599
8110
710
596
9711
593
4343
4343
4343
4343
4344
1790
111
127
112
116
9788
8980
8810
944
4444
4646
4646
4647
4717
9011
412
410
411
090
8791
8699
118
4444
4444
4444
4646
4646
1800
98B
O76
106
102
105
106
102
B7
116
4747
4747
4748
4848
4848
1800
102
8282
122
109
109
104
100
8711
946
4747
4747
4747
4748
4818
1010
911
312
010
612
812
112
511
112
312
848
4848
4848
4848
4848
4918
1010
711
011
597
121
109
113
9611
211
748
4848
4848
4848
4848
4818
2098
110
107
8811
410
310
710
312
792
4949
4949
4950
5050
5151
1820
8510
210
286
116
101
106
9612
585
4848
4949
4949
4949
5050
1830
7493
134
9192
8589
100
103
8951
5151
5151
5151
5151
5118
3073
9814
190
9086
9610
810
792
5051
5151
5151
5151
5151
1840
9396
8285
7310
989
94B
695
5151
5151
5151
5151
5151
1840
9710
287
9282
122
9510
090
103
5151
5151
5151
5151
5151
1850
8693
9988
9211
298
108
7958
5151
5150
5050
5049
4949
1850
9110
210
694
9811
710
011
076
6351
5151
5050
5050
4949
4918
6098
9766
8289
7110
483
8811
048
4747
4747
4747
4747
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6011
210
977
9610
283
118
9110
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648
4747
4747
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4747
4718
7088
7582
8479
100
7399
9410
347
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4747
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4718
7090
8091
9791
112
8011
099
110
4747
4747
4747
4747
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1880
9610
586
101
127
144
8191
9710
647
4747
4747
4747
4747
4718
8096
106
8710
612
714
061
8493
111
4747
4747
4747
4747
4747
1890
8594
110
8911
610
410
714
512
013
147
4747
4747
4747
4747
4718
9085
9611
388
118
100
104
138
105
114
4747
4747
4747
4747
4747
1900
153
141
125
112
104
120
9112
511
791
4747
4747
4747
4747
4747
1900
131
114
9589
8811
161
125
102
8047
4747
4747
4747
4747
4719
1098
101
118
126
101
107
101
8584
118
4747
4747
4747
4747
4747
1910
9210
112
312
088
9793
8386
125
4747
4747
4747
4747
4747
1920
8810
893
133
9299
125
8610
882
4747
4747
4747
4747
4747
1920
8811
189
133
8496
122
7910
877
4747
4747
4747
4747
4747
1930
102
134
105
9314
672
9694
110
106
4747
4747
4746
4646
4646
1930
107
136
9885
142
6096
9311
710
447
4747
4747
4646
4646
4619
4011
112
612
911
110
111
510
311
210
011
146
4646
4646
4646
4646
4619
4011
012
011
996
8910
898
108
9210
946
4546
4646
4646
4646
4619
5084
102
8878
108
8282
9913
199
4646
4646
4646
4645
4545
1950
7910
589
8511
686
9010
813
894
4646
4646
4646
4645
4545
1960
109
9912
210
710
810
197
8187
106
4545
4545
4545
4545
4545
1960
104
9212
099
101
9493
8293
114
4545
4545
4545
4545
4545
1970
7379
8274
8973
7780
109
8945
4545
4545
4343
4342
4119
7081
9097
8910
585
9295
124
9545
4545
4545
4343
4342
4119
8012
041
1980
126
41
SAINT JOHN MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5
PINUS PONDEROSA
6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1500 90 139 110 99 104 121 131 115 122 149 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1510 111 145 105 94 95 66 71 94 83 102 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1520 114 9t 83 155 114 77 93 59 102 95 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3
1530 82 116 BO 103 110 96 110 113 111 106 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
1540 71 81 III 102 86 79 107 123 86 140 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1550 124 112 105 107 64 85 106 107 94 104 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5
1560 105 107 102 97 108 96 87 64 75 76 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
1570 73 85 91 97 88 101 92 116 90 93 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1580 46 75 102 111 94 128 98 104 121 109 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8
1590 109 102 97 60 88 91 74 109 77 88 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10
1600 101 100 112 74 72 89 91 78 100 96 11 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 15
1610 105 93 79 87 75 91 85 104 107 94 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
1620 96 95 99 90 102 88 76 86 88 84 16 18 18 18 21 21 21 21 21 21
1630 103 103 138 117 105 104 137 92 92 112 21 21 21 22 23 23 24 25 25 25
1640 88 133 147 109 109 117 75 92 90 126 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26
1650 119 96 110 80 123 88 100 90 108 91 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 29 29 29
1660 93 110 86 115 84 86 92 91 110 116 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 30 30
1670 97 120 97 117 124 107 85 79 110 102 31 31 32 32 32 32 33 33 33 34
1680 101 156 94 80 85 99 90 94 98 99 34 34 34 34 34 36 36 36 36 36
1690 96 127 99 100 44 1I9 98 96 73 95 36 36 36 37 37 38 38 39 39 39
1700 108 99 140 88 III 124 95 107 112 75 39 39 39 40 40 40 41 41 41 41
1710 101 86 99 99 74 103 105 103 93 99 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1720 95 101 115 109 89 88 121 117 83 85 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1730 107 99 114 91 87 119 110 116 130 129 41 39 39 39 39 39 38 39 39 39
1740 91 81 99 108 105 98 100 99 83 97 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1750 120 116 104 99 76 127 87 78 117 104 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 42
1760 88 120 97 88 80 99 100 97 105 76 42 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441770 116 74 113 112 98 111 107 90 86 89 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 431780 101 71 91 75 96 99 91 94 112 93 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 44
1790 113 128 111 119 100 91 93 83 93 113 44 44 44 44 44 44 46 46 46 461800 101 83 81 116 107 109 110 104 91 120 46 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 48 48
1810 110 113 122 105 128 119 121 108 120 126 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
1820 94 108 107 87 116 103 107 102 127 92 48 48 49 49 49 49 49 49 50 501830 75 97 136 92 93 90 91 104 105 92 50 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51
1840 97 101 85 89 78 113 92 97 90 99 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51
1850 89 98 104 93 97 116 101 112 81 61 51 51 51 50 50 50 50 49 49 49
1860 104 101 71 91 97 76 111 90 95 116 48 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471870 91 79 89 90 84 105 77 103 98 106 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471880 98 106 89 104 128 144 74 90 95 105 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471890 84 93 110 86 115 103 105 142 114 123 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47
1900 145 129 111 103 95 112 84 122 106 81 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471910 93 98 118 122 94 102 97 81 83 118 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471920 86 107 91 130 90 96 125 82 107 81 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 47 471930 101 135 102 90 147 68 95 95 110 105 47 47 47 47 47 46 46 46 46 461940 111 125 126 107 98 113 101 110 97 110 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 461950 82 102 89 80 111 83 85 104 133 98 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 45 45 451960 109 99 121 105 105 99 94 81 88 108 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451970 78 84 92 81 97 80 84 89 116 94 45 45 45 45 45 43 43 43 42 41
1980 125 41
150
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE DON Site no. 25
Site name: DONNER SUMMITSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
WESTERN WHITE PINE, Pinus monticolaLODGEPOLE PINE, Pinus contorta
Country: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: NEVADAAdministration: TAHOE NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series,Norden,CA 1955, Photo revised 1979Elevation: 2201 -2329 m Latitude: 39° 19'N Longitude: 120° 21'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 8 No. of core samples: PIJE 16
PIMT 2 PIMT 4
PICO 1 PICO 1
Date of collection: JUL 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, SB
Site description:
This is one of the highest sites collected on this project. The site is on thesouthwest end of Boreal Ridge 0.8 km (0.5 mi) southeast of U.S. Interstate 80 and 67.2km (42 mi) west of Reno, Nevada. Access to the site is through the ski areas on thenortheast side of Boreal Ridge or from the small village of Norden, 2.4 km (1.5 mi)west of Donner Pass Summit on the old U.S. Highway 40. Bedrock is an igneous basalt -andesite ridge. The soil is very thin, less than 10 cm, except on the colluvial slopeswhere it is nearly 30 cm thick. The sampled trees are from the edge of the southwestridge line with near vertical drops below them, and from the south and southeast facesof the steep (12° to 28 °) colluvial slopes. Sampled trees are 6 to 20 m in height and25 to 144 cm in diameter. This stand of mixed conifers, Jeffrey pine, western whitepine and lodgepole pine, is very open with considerable distance between mature trees.The understory is diverse, with sagebrush (Artemisia spp), lemonade berry (Rhustrilobata), bitter brush (Purshia spp), buckwheats (Eriogonum app), several compositesand many grasses. There is some evidence of human disturbance such as a few cut stumpsand old electric lines. The trees on this ridge experience long harsh winters, withvery deep snow and high winds, and several of the trees have been struck by lightning.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSDONNER SUMMIT, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1510 to 1980 (471 years) 6 trees, 11 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 1) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 .998Median .986 1.002 .980Mean sensitivity .174 .211 .172Standard deviation .217 .184 .210Skewness .413 .227 .353Kurtosis 3.643 3.352 3.608
Autocorrelation order 1 .496 -.045 .484Partial autocorr. order 2 .020 -.127 -.009Partial autocorr. order 3 .204 .124 .183
Variance from autoregression 24.1 pct 23.7 pctError variance .008295 .007703Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .929
Common interval 1551 to 1861 (311 years) 4 trees, 5 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii. .460 .489Between trees (Y variance) .429 .451
Within trees .573 .620
Signal -to -noise ratio 3.00 3.29Agreement with pop. chron. .750 .767
Variance in eigenvector 1 56.58 pct 58.85 pctChron. common interval mean 1.006 1.002Chron. common interval st dev .203 .175
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DONNER SUMMIT, CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREY!
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1510 83 115 132 121 98 120 126 117 100 83 1 1 1 1 I I 1 1 1 1
1520 92 107 86 60 73 90 60 88 88 86 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1530 57 84 77 57 96 82 98 91 94 114 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 31540 87 89 113 109 133 110 63 98 89 94 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31550 109 116 110 97 76 81 92 75 107 104 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51560 115 107 116 128 108 121 103 89 95 101 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51570 72 98 102 89 118 128 84 81 75 93 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51580 119 73 82 115 114 137 122 96 103 108 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51590 122 128 104 95 120 110 98 135 138 117 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51600 141 85 95 78 79 81 111 96 85 104 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51610 122 143 107 129 120 158 107 103 129 85 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51620 117 107 92 114 109 91 115 104 114 112 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51630 110 91 123 116 128 89 120 115 104 93 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51640 88 102 93 103 131 120 82 92 90 110 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51650 122 105 106 90 94 91 98 87 84 59 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51660 98 118 84 101 80 77 80 100 97 93 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51670 93 81 70 97 104 132 78 76 91 92 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51680 63 89 70 61 61 69 89 69 90 77 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51690 104 115 105 93 86 110 84 74 57 89 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51700 103 66 66 68 82 123 91 79 106 102 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51710 113 93 109 113 110 105 108 101 72 86 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51720 86 63 91 109 113 120 142 122 104 70 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51730 94 134 118 130 101 109 120 123 115 125 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61740 101 82 96 124 113 120 120 124 87 89 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71750 120 115 70 45 39 59 73 82 89 86 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71760 72 99 104 93 103 116 83 111 123 84 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71770 108 88 104 103 102 104 103 108 88 110 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71780 128 93 71 71 97 89 84 68 96 109 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71790 111 121 120 104 114 83 72 76 82 97 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 71800 119 111 136 I11 106 113 119 122 84 84 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91810 92 102 93 91 123 141 131 118 126 114 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 101820 95 75 89 79 87 94 97 89 126 158 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101830 97 106 140 127 121 88 97 135 149 90 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101840 100 94 77 74 68 84 95 97 98 93 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101850 102 95 131 133 117 129 86 113 89 54 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101860 91 125 82 94 82 77 88 90 100 104 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 101870 91 65 87 97 83 107 82 84 102 100 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101880 91 109 119 80 121 196 130 128 155 121 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101890 101 130 137 95 86 106 139 136 130 87 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101900 137 147 91 110 124 118 100 145 154 107 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101910 89 90 109 137 126 100 110 83 76 107 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101920 81 80 73 98 94 86 116 112 106 83 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 101930 65 81 78 51 107 83 71 62 80 97 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 91940 92 94 143 91 77 86 91 89 61 100 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81950 94 74 83 76 116 93 82 101 110 93 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81960 76 76 97 87 86 98 124 97 99 113 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81970 101 89 77 63 73 101 113 128 137 154 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81980 140 8
153
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE SNO Site no. 26
Site name: SNOW WHITE RIDGESpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: TUOLUMNEAdministration: STANISLAUS NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Strawberry, CA 1979Elevation: 1696 -1743 m Latitude: 38° 08'N Longitude: 120 °03'W
No. of trees sampled: PIPO 14 No. of core samples: PIPO 32PIJE 1 PIJE 2
Date of collection: SEP 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LB
Site description:
The site is 5.6 km (3.5 mi) southwest of Strawberry on state Highway 108. All buttwo of the sampled trees are north of Highway 108, and the west end of the site isadjacent to Bald Mountain, on an igneous (pyroclastics) ridge that parallels Highway108. Soil depth is quite variable, ranging from 20 to 60 cm in some of the ashy,cindery areas. Slope angle varies from a few flat areas up to 25° in one location.The sampled trees range from 5 to 24 m in height and 25 to 129 cm in diameter. On themain part of the dry rocky ridge and down slope from the ridge crest for a shortdistance, the stand of trees is very open and the understory is sparse. Off the dryrocky ridge the forest is lush with many young trees and a dense understory. Whileponderosa pine and Jeffrey pine are the most prevalent conifers, sugar pine (Pinuslambertiana) and incense cedar (Libocedrus decurrens) are also present. The understoryconsists of buck brush (Ceanothus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), mountainmahogany (Cercocarpus spp), some composites and native and non -native grasses. Beingclose to a major highway has contributed to the disturbance of the stand. Many treeshave been cut, and in one area an underground telephone cable may have caused rootdamage. Fire damage is also evident.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSNOW WHITE RIDGE, CALIFORNIA (PIPO]Chronology 1557 to 1980 (424 years) 13 trees, 26 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.001 1.004Median .988 .985 .985Mean sensitivity .187 .203 .185Standard deviation .202 .184 .203Skewness .478 .515 .442Kurtosis 3.543 3.706 3.373
Autocorrelation order 1 .313 .000 .318Partial autocorr. order 2 .201 -.020 .199Partial autocorr. order 3 .129 -.037 .101
Variance from autoregression 15.9 pct 15.3 pctError variance .005456 .004752Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .871
Common interval 1768 to 1980 (213 years) 9 trees, 16 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .407 .444Between trees (Y variance) .389 .427Within trees .649 .670
Signal. -to -noise ratio 5.73 6.71Agreement with pop. chron. .851 .870Variance in eigenvector 1 44.60 pct 47.90 pctChron. common interval mean 1.002 1.001Chron. common interval st dev .202 .179
154
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SNOW WHITE RIDGE. CALIFORNIA PINUS PONDEROSA
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1558 126 127 1
1560 123 96 116 99 90 48 I12 84 79 82 1 1 1 1 1 2
1570 78 76 92 78 95 112 113 151 92 90 2 3 3
1580 72 66 125 133 113 131 107 121 126 100 3 3 4
1590 107 108 82 59 84 72 81 112 93 114 5 6 61600 102 122 126 141 127 122 128 83 161 116 7 7 7
1610 126 117 93 91 81 124 98 96 100 105 7 7 7
1620 114 128 101 85 107 103 IOl 79 81 66 7 7 81630 75 78 72 94 82 105 118 81 92 98 8 8 81640 67 135 143 97 118 lia 79 117 76 101 8 8 81650 90 96 94 83 115 65 97 65 94 80 8 8 81660 63 100 79 118 79 105 117 110 110 104 8 8 81670 90 118 131 160 140 138 77 82 125 101 9 9 91680 97 179 112 105 109 102 76 94 122 86 9 9 IO 1
1690 79 105 114 86 93 94 87 108 83 106 1 1 10 10 1 1 1 1 10 1
1700 116 88 136 81 82 Ill 80 92 78 89 1 1 11 11 11 il 11 11 11 11
1710 91 69 100 104 102 100 104 98 81 89 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12
1720 91 92 116 148 116 100 127 122 114 80 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1730 113 111 106 84 86 102 91 91 120 112 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1740 84 90 98 90 95 98 118 104 76 140 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1750 108 106 104 87 75 124 68 74 81 97 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13
1760 76 124 97 91 87 102 102 90 108 86 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 16 16
1770 128 88 128 129 101 121 99 86 79 84 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
1780 96 77 80 71 85 94 92 79 71 92 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16
1790 103 131 144 117 111 86 76 94 87 112 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
1800 108 87 90 126 126 125 108 88 120 127 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
1810 138 120 139 118 159 120 138 95 131 112 17 IB 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
1820 Ill 92 85 87 80 95 111 89 118 98 18 18 18 19 19 20 20 20 20 201830 71 86 132 81 68 92 91 105 111 108 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21
1840 108 100 83 84 78 139 81 73 79 67 21 21 21 23 23 24 24 24 24 251850 71 82 80 93 83 109 90 98 76 55 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261860 103 103 70 84 85 64 99 88 127 113 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261870 117 125 121 120 95 127 104 124 107 118 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261880 92 115 91 106 120 169 111 111 114 107 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261890 94 112 113 107 120 107 121 141 108 105 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261900 143 125 112 103 90 110 98 103 98 82 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261910 88 89 94 130 109 105 85 69 66 92 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261920 84 95 68 114 85 99 119 82 116 78 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261930 85 115 72 58 96 59 78 62 90 90 26 26 26 25 26 26 26 26 26 261940 92 120 97 108 78 111 129 117 100 81 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261950 96 113 73 97 120 95 96 117 136 104 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261960 102 115 102 121 128 110 102 64 83 86 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261970 96 91 100 81 117 87 100 94 99 95 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 251980 86 25
156
Figure A3-5. Ponderosa pine at Site 26, Snow \Vhite Ridge, California, 14 m tall and 72 cm in diameter, dating from AD 1570. Old age and open-growth conditions are indicated by long, large-diameter, and down-trending lower branches. In general, ponderosa pine is more responsive to drought and slightly longer-lived than Jeffrey pine.
157
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE DDF Site no. 27
Site name: DEVILS DANCE FLOORSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: MARIPOSAAdministration: YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARKMap reference: USGS 15' series, Yosemite, CA 1956Elevation: 1951 -2084 m Latitude: 37° 45'N Longitude: 119° 45'WNo. of trees sampled: 17 No. of core samples: 37Date of collection: SEP 1981 Collectors: RLH, RKA, LB
Site description:
The site encompasses the top of a large granite dome called the Devil's DanceFloor, above Big Oak Flat Road. Access to the site is from Tamarack Flat Campground tothe south 1.2 km (0.8 mi). Being on the granite dome, the stand is very open with 20 to30 or more meters between trees. Soil on the dome is almost nonexistent except incracks and small catch basins. Slope angle varies from flat on the dome top tovertical at the dome margins. The dome environment leads to a stunted, wind flaggedappearance for many of the trees. Sampled tree sizes range from 3 to 19 m in heightand 48 to 161 cm in diameter. While being in the National Park has protected the treesfrom adverse affects by humans and by fires, their dome location has made the treesgood lightning rods and subjects them to wind. On the dome the trees are almostexclusively Jeffrey pine. Off the dome there is a dense mixed conifer forest of ofsugar pine (Pinus lambertiana), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), red fir (Abiesmagnifica) and white fir (Abies concolor) with a dense understory of several species ofmanzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp), wild rose (Rosa spp) andbarberry (Berberis spp). The view of the Yosemite Valley from this dome isspectacular.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSDEVILS DANCE FLOOR, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]Chronology 1441 to 1980
Chronology type
(540 years) 16
STNDRD
trees, 35 radii
RESID (AR 1) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.004 1.000Median .985 .992 .986Mean sensitivity .149 .175 .152Standard deviation .177 .156 .167Skewness .366 .365 .422Kurtosis 3.097 3.121 3.034
Autocorrelation order 1 .425 -.008 .329Partial autocorr. order 2 .091 -.051 -.012Partial autocorr. order 3 .115 .074 .114
Variance from autoregression 16.9 pct 10.3 pctError variance .005976 .003865Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .647
Common interval 1711 to 1935 (225 years) 10 trees, 21 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .247 .319Between trees (Y variance) .220 .300Within trees .574 .555
Signal -to -noise ratio 2.81 4.28Agreement with pop. chron. .738 .811Variance in eigenvector 1 28.97 pct 35.10 pctChron. common interval mean 1.011 1.007Chron. common interval st dev .162 .153
158
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DEVILS DANCE FLOOR. CALIFORNIA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5
PINOS JEFFREY'
6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1442 97 89 95 110 116 105 ill 121 1 l 2 2 2 2 2 2
1450 128 90 102 97 102 77 88 91 98 83 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1460 88 102 137 97 83 99 87 117 96 87 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1470 99 98 77 87 75 72 75 86 96 93 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 21480 90 79 76 69 98 95 82 77 76 88 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1490 79 112 107 75 98 79 119 85 98 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
1500 64 109 115 96 84 87 82 65 83 20 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 31510 116 89 103 113 104 97 114 120 105 12 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3I520 141 147 100 75 99 129 103 120 116 18 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 41530 93 143 135 84 112 110 104 82 121 35 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1540 109 96 101 113 117 84 83 126 72 78 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1550 99 115 129 141 111 89 102 98 120 19 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1560 90 116 114 85 101 112 123 112 87 82 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1570 92 113 99 83 92 109 78 119 119 81 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51580 71 70 82 99 93 106 83 88 102 128 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51590 107 111 94 92 104 95 76 122 100 95 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 71600 100 81 131 125 146 134 146 106 123 105 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 91610 109 112 113 118 105 146 109 100 120 109 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11
1620 102 95 97 107 115 94 86 83 94 86 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12
1630 89 78 71 91 97 88 110 68 74 90 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 131640 84 98 103 103 118 132 82 90 101 139 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 151650 124 93 118 101 103 65 104 88 91 89 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 161660 75 91 84 99 91 88 105 102 92 85 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 181670 101 100 85 99 124 136 113 92 106 94 18 18 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 201680 92 122 99 81 87 92 75 85 83 79 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 201690 83 107 107 91 86 87 86 116 116 108 20 20 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 241700 115 102 114 83 91 128 96 68 57 79 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 261710 91 84 85 106 86 82 81 106 94 100 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271720 95 93 88 98 120 84 115 112 90 75 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271730 103 112 125 102 102 90 96 98 101 111 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271740 109 95 111 100 92 132 109 104 95 111 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 291750 112 93 90 94 100 140 118 86 123 117 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 291760 107 120 101 108 91 91 94 104 126 97 29 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 311770 123 90 109 108 93 112 121 92 85 102 31 31 31 3! 31 31 31 31 31 311780 120 101 95 81 92 92 92 89 95 90 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 33 331790 93 87 101 88 91 73 79 100 100 104 33 33 33 33 33 33 35 35 35 351800 95 74 110 110 100 118 115 88 98 128 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351810 117 157 131 88 111 110 128 124 127 114 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351820 101 102 76 76 83 98 122 91 114 107 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351830 80 80 120 90 84 71 85 98 127 108 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351840 102 86 71 85 89 127 79 79 94 108 35 35 34 34 34 34 33 33 33 331850 97 105 117 119 108 106 84 112 81 70 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 331860 102 109 89 96 91 79 110 94 129 117 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 331870 116 93 90 98 81 121 107 113 100 113 33 33 33 33 32 32 32 32 32 321880 92 111 119 97 106 151 86 105 127 107 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 321890 99 100 102 83 100 108 97 131 119 115 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 31 31 311900 130 125 111 103 82 106 90 107 92 88 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 311910 85 93 96 142 130 79 100 85 73 89 31 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 28 281920 91 113 94 123 97 105 121 79 90 82 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 281930 100 125 92 81 90 82 90 97 105 111 28 28 28 28 28 28 27 27 27 271940 88 85 103 104 71 83 97 98 90 99 27 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 241950 88 98 74 90 102 74 79 112 132 92 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 241960 68 80 106 90 105 98 102 97 112 114 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 231970 103 78 102 119 108 110 102 117 115 111 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 231980 124 23
160
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE KAI Site no. 28
Site name: KAISER PASSSpecies collected: WESTERN JUNIPER, Juniperus occidentalisCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: FRESNOAdministration: SIERRA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Kaiser Peak, CA 1953Elevation: 2633 -2829 m Latitude: 37° 17'N Longitude: 119 °05'WNo. of trees sampled: 36 No. of core samples: 86Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, SB
Site description:
Kaiser Pass, is 9.6 km (6 mi) east northeast of Huntington Lake, traversed by
State Highway 168. At an altitude of over 2600 m, this site, consisting of threesubsites, is the highest, most southerly western juniper site for this project. Thejuniper here is of the variety australis; all other western juniper sites sampled areof the variety occidentalis. Two subsítes are south of the summit of Kaiser Pass .2 km(.1 mi), while a third subsite is 2.4 km (1.5 mi) north of the Kaiser Pass summit.Bedrock is granite on very steep (15° to 40 °) west southwest to east southeast facingslopes with some vertical cliffs. Soil is derived from the weathered granite and isvery thin, less than 10 cm. Most of the trees in these very open stands are growing inbedrock cracks and very shallow catch basins. While the sampled western juniper is notparticularly tall, ranging from 5 to 17 m in height, trunks are massive, 60 to 296 cmin diameter, often with large multiple stem trunks and basal branches. On the openslopes, western juniper is the dominant tree. At breaks in slope such as cliff basesand outwashes, there are red fir (Abies magnifica), some Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi)and lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorts). The understory is an open mix of low oaks(Quercus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), gooseberry (Ribes spp) and many wildflowers such as lupines (Lupinus spp), Indian paintbrushes (Castilleja spp), buckwheats(Eriogonum spp) and a variety of composites. Several of the western junipers exhibitlarge fire scars, and many appear to have heartrot. The stand is healthy and isregenerating.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSKAISER PASS, CALIFORNIA [JUOC]
Chronology 1140 to 1981 (842 years) 28 trees, 54 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 5) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.002 1.003Median .998 .989 .992
Mean sensitivity .191 .181 .185
Standard deviation .250 .165 .238
Skewness -.224 .356 -.049Kurtosis 4.181 3.531 3.805
Autocorrelation order 1 .575 -.005 .536
Partial autocorr. order 2 .184 -.059 .227
Partial autocorr. order 3 .219 -.025 .176
Variance from autoregression 23.6 pct 24.5 pctError variance .005854 .004229Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .722
Common interval 1795 to 1981 (187 years) 23 trees, 36 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .350 .402
Between trees (Y variance) .342 .396
Within trees .629 .633
Signal -to -noise ratio 11.97 15.09Agreement with pop. chron. .923 .938
Variance in eigenvector 1 37.10 pct 41.88 pctChron. common interval mean 1.014 1.004Chron. common interval st dev .198 .156
161
162
Figure A3-6. Western juniper at Site 28, Kaiser Pass, California, with triple trunk and a common base. The trunks measure 103, 82 and 81 cm in diameter and the tree is 9 m tall. This tree is of the southern subspecies (australis), and dates from AD 1587.
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KAISER PASS. CALIFORNIA JUNIPERUS OCCIDENTALIS
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1141 148 151 123 133 131 159 158 56 481150 115 103 108 77 78 86 58 16 73 621160 73 65 92 99 100 86 125 71 88 801170 119 72 97 113 i14 128 114 72 31 581180 88 71 108 31 35 68 85 82 46 581190 67 102 115 146 139 141 139 90 121 1041200 127 131 122 106 127 119 125 112 196 1341210 160 157 139 123 98 147 95 107 80 961220 111 109 97 97 111 109 144 88 108 1281230 122 115 109 153 138 104 140 83 134 1671240 113 107 155 130 123 132 144 128 97 1481250 111 100 107 109 110 80 107 83 19 491260 82 84 110 128 123 121 128 85 104 1201270 81 133 95 110 87 128 68 82 116 1001280 63 87 89 91 84 27 80 115 75 701290 75 105 80 45 84 83 74 31 72 461300 90 69 80 91 78 52 79 100 74 1021310 76 49 50 27 102 30 51 52 31 351320 57 69 39 38 41 56 67 64 93 721330 79 92 118 95 151 153 153 142 153 1311340 118 122 115 118 107 127 137 124 129 144 2 2 2 2 2 2 21350 133 132 156 167 128 124 127 100 105 118 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31360 124 112 115 90 104 84 105 96 120 125 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 41370 108 102 118 120 145 105 121 97 116 116 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 41380 112 136 108 122 103 120 105 110 115 111 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 51390 107 101 117 114 126 80 82 87 87 88 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 61400 80 80 73 82 89 95 94 79 75 92 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61410 60 83 89 49 73 80 64 84 85 73 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61420 122 101 140 143 113 83 72 100 121 136 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 61430 112 90 96 99 87 92 100 91 84 97 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 71440 124 113 89 97 91 99 86 98 87 92 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
1450 96 83 80 89 73 92 83 91 70 72 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 81460 109 92 115 111 82 98 119 120 58 113 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81470 155 119 132 113 104 99 94 119 103 79 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 81480 116 120 95 105 146 124 104 94 107 123 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 91490 116 148 153 150 128 120 131 117 116 120 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 101500 58 94 101 107 122 115 81 75 65 103 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
1510 95 78 86 100 91 75 92 113 83 84 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
1520 95 93 105 96 125 137 113 109 127 109 10 10 10 11 11 11 Il 11 11 11
1530 126 113 99 80 122 122 96 90 88 116 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 131540 102 84 95 94 92 94 95 101 78 122 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14
1550 80 102 112 134 83 90 148 115 106 119 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1560 104 106 106 116 130 120 104 115 124 79 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1570 74 85 87 99 92 82 87 128 103 72 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 131580 68 120 69 103 81 97 85 83 90 127 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
1590 97 92 89 85 114 70 126 105 106 116 14 14 14 16 16 16 16 17 18 181600 93 107 96 90 132 134 121 84 115 103 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 191610 101 121 104 85 118 122 112 143 108 92 19 18 18 18 19 19 19 19 19 191620 104 98 65 93 95 131 79 95 97 88 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 201630 85 66 64 94 79 76 112 71 77 75 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 201640 84 91 117 85 116 124 110 118 138 129 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
1650 129 122 118 85 100 65 113 58 67 84 21 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 21 211660 115 111 83 81 87 93 111 84 89 78 21 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 231670 102 116 121 105 115 104 106 123 119 125 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 24 24 241680 122 122 111 122 88 99 95 103 104 103 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 271690 79 76 116 99 103 94 100 127 114 123 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 291700 112 97 116 89 127 148 112 96 102 113 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 301710 77 101 90 88 72 67 76 98 88 82 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 321720 96 81 78 87 64 101 103 97 92 66 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 321730 108 94 89 81 133 98 115 98 90 89 32 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 33 331740 132 132 114 124 104 163 112 124 97 114 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 34 341750 102 108 106 93 91 85 90 96 105 89 36 37 37 37 38 38 39 39 39 391760 114 107 91 112 103 95 117 108 116 90 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 39 39 381770 98 96 97 99 102 91 109 86 98 88 38 38 38 38 38 38 39 39 39 391780 85 90 78 84 87 78 86 87 73 86 39 38 39 40 40 40 40 40 41 421790 94 88 116 77 93 76 70 85 84 110 42 42 42 43 43 44 44 44 44 441800 101 89 94 98 87 106 82 84 75 105 44 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 441810 103 118 104 119 136 112 122 135 121 120 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441820 120 117 112 96 84 122 127 96 94 99 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431830 113 101 147 92 87 102 94 94 116 89 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431840 87 75 88 90 73 131 90 107 116 97 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431850 98 82 124 115 89 95 70 106 80 83 43 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1860 96 91 96 102 114 100 113 101 85 81 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 Al 41
1870 93 71 72 78 81 84 86 80 99 98 41 41 Al 41 41 41 41 41 41 411880 92 111 104 93 137 154 110 111 135 125 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1890 141 130 91 138 127 135 122 132 110 95 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 401900 118 149 107 98 127 113 126 106 102 100 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 401910 96 122 82 106 123 103 110 96 87 90 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 391920 84 95 81 78 69 102 93 67 66 79 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381930 64 91 78 59 76 87 105 89 105 87 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381940 102 100 95 92 74 89 87 86 90 74 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381950 98 95 105 83 110 87 94 102 119 81 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381960 68 84 96 93 84 97 95 106 82 130 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381970 103 91 113 99 105 117 105 124 160 122 38 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 371980 139 114 37 37
165
166
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE BLA Site no. 29
Site name: BLACK CREEKSpecies collected: PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosa
JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiINCENSE CEDAR, Libocedrus decurrens
Country: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: FRESNOAdministration: SIERRA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Shaver Lake, CA 1953
Shuteye Peak, CA 1953Elevation: 1774 -1902 m Latitude: 37° 15'N Longitude: 119° 16'WNo. of trees sampled: PIPO 34 No. of core samples: PIPO 74
PIJE 1 PIJE 3
LIDE 1 LIDE 2
Dates of collection: OCT 1980 and JUL 1982Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, SB, TPH, ASM
Site description:
Black Creek is one of many short tributary creeks of the San Joaquin River in theSierra National Forest of eastern California. It is 5.6 km (3.5 mi) northwest of thevillage of Big Creek and 7.2 km (4.5 mi) west of Huntington Lake on the Stump SpringsRoad. The moderately deep (10 to 50 cm) sandy soil derived from Sierra Nevada graniteis on steep (10° to 30 °) colluvial slopes. The predominant slope direction for allfour subsites is west. The sampled trees range from 12 to 25 m in height and 83 to 129cm in diameter, and though the forest is open, this is a result of logging. There isalso evidence of forest fires in some of the subsites. Some trees have mechanicalscars such as bulldozer scrapes. The fairly dense, mixed conifer forest of ponderosapine, Jeffrey pine, sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana), Douglas -fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii), white fir (Abies concolor) and incense cedar, along with the diverseunderstory of oaks (Quercus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), buck brush (Ceanothusspp), many wildflowers, lupines (Lupinus spp), mariposa tulips (Calochortus spp) andcomposites, attests to the mesic nature of this site location. Core samples taken inOctober 1980 were combined with those taken in July 1982.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSBLACK CREEK, CALIFORNIA [PIPO]
Chronology 1527 to 1981 (455 years) 33 trees, 67 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTANMean 1.000 1.000 1.000Median .978 .988 .975
Mean sensitivity .148 .174 .143
Standard deviation .202 .165 .210
Skewness .405 .338 .350
Kurtosis 3.439 3.693 3.407
Autocorrelation order 1 .532 .037 .610
Partial autocorr. order 2 .162 .006 .064
Partial autocorr. order 3 .055 -.019 .034
Variance from autoregression 31.8 pct 37.4 pct
Error variance .003007 .003162Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.0514
Common interval 1700 to 1925 (226 years) 16 trees, 30 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .354 .345Between trees (Y variance) .341 .334
Within trees .613 .562
Signal -to -noise ratio 8.28 8.04
Agreement with pop. chron. .892 .889
Variance in eigenvector 1 37.80 pet 36.57 pctChron. common interval mean 1.005 1.003
Chron. common interval st dev .190 .151
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BLACK CREEK. CALIFORNIA PINUS PONDEROSA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
527 139
8
92
9
94
0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAHPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 1 1
530 108 105 107 99 103 86 127 85 107 132 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 3540 115 83 82 85 81 57 57 74 44 78 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3550 138 135 106 135 127 112 137 88 74 75 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3560 78 69 74 55 84 106 96 81 104 67 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3570 54 79 94 93 119 114 110 107 86 84 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3580 46 57 49 89 58 71 70 94 116 145 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3590 123 109 103 61 90 76 76 136 104 141 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4600 130 121 113 141 123 121 139 113 178 122 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4610 113 110 102 105 102 135 98 108 94 86 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5620 82 91 96 92 87 86 95 88 94 91 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 10 10630 91 95 98 96 94 114 112 86 83 86 12 13 13 13 15 16 16 16 17 17640 88 123 123 111 123 123 103 111 109 134 18 19 19 21 21 21 21 21 24 24650 124 124 128 104 92 79 105 87 85 89 24 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 29660 92 107 100 III 107 108 121 104 96 83 29 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30670 88 118 119 135 143 129 98 85 94 98 31 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 33680 92 109 102 97 96 101 84 94 108 92 33 33 33 34 35 35 35 36 36 36690 81 81 110 94 90 102 91 104 105 129 36 36 36 36 37 37 37 37 37 37700 139 89 114 88 84 111 79 74 75 89 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39710 94 76 98 III 97 92 103 107 103 106 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 39 39 39720 100 104 97 119 98 105 123 122 103 63 39 39 39 39 39 39 41 41 41 41730 96 102 98 83 79 94 84 74 97 94 41 41 41 41 41 42 42 42 42 42740 90 97 97 92 92 88 97 119 102 140 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42750 114 101 83 83 90 110 75 76 96 93 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 44 44760 93 132 105 91 84 91 99 94 101 95 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44770 123 116 113 109 106 102 89 62 72 86 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44780 86 74 77 66 87 98 90 79 69 83 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45790 86 100 118 126 103 63 59 87 98 112 45 45 45 45 45 48 48 48 48 48800 124 112 95 104 114 111 116 109 112 138 48 49 49 49 50 50 50 51 51 51810 146 141 129 137 166 153 146 112 130 126 51 51 52 53 53 53 53 54 56 57820 116 103 81 83 77 108 126 113 136 100 57 57 58 58 58 58 58 58 59 59830 82 86 109 86 73 91 92 96 109 120 59 60 60 61 61 61 62 62 62 63840 123 83 107 94 86 119 84 79 76 82 63 62 62 62 62 61 60 60 60 60850 90 96 102 120 108 133 105 98 68 57 59 59 59 60 60 60 60 60 59 59860 86 97 78 87 72 66 91 100 128 109 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59870 110 116 124 110 88 106 97 90 104 112 59 59 59 60 60 60 60 59 59 59880 96 103 76 81 97 123 98 100 91 89 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59890 91 105 100 130 131 116 111 125 107 105 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59900 132 142 132 127 120 128 129 148 139 118 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 59910 111 108 95 101 116 99 103 84 80 93 59 59 59 59 59 59 58 58 58 58920 85 101 86 120 85 94 115 94 97 72 58 58 58 58 58 58 57 55 55 55930 73 76 63 58 62 60 66 64 94 89 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 53940 94 119 141 158 114 128 160 156 101 75 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53950 86 106 93 97 129 93 90 98 136 94 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51960 87 84 92 94 89 96 89 82 79 105 51 51 51 51 51 50 50 50 50 50970 84 77 80 83 101 97 86 67 116 111 50 50 50 50 50 49 48 48 48 48980 94 105 48 33
168
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE BUE Site no. 30
Site name: BUENAVISTASpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: TULAREAdministration: SEQUOIA NATIONAL FOREST and
SEQUOIA and KINGS CANYON NATIONAL PARKSMap reference: USGS 15' series, Giant Forest, CA 1956Elevation: 2146 -2414 m Latitude: 36° 43'N Longitude: 118° 55'WNo. of trees sampled: 50 No. of core samples: 107Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR, TW
Site description:
Buenavista Peak, in east central California, for which this series of six subsiteareas is named, lies inside the boundary of Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parksalong the Generals' Highway (State Highway 180) at the north end of the Parks, andState Highway 198 at the south end. One subsite is located on the northwest flank ofBuenavista Peak inside the Parks boundary; all other subsites are on Sequoia NationalForest lands. Bedrock consists of granite in either a rock pile, ridge or dome. Soil
accumulation is minimal in the rock pile and dome locations. On the ridge there issandy soil over 30 cm thick. Three subsites are on steep slopes (18° to 33 °) withvertical dropoffs. Three others are less steep (8° to 18 °) with a few flat locations.Slope directions are variable. The sampled trees range from 6 to 18 m in height and 63to 147 cm in diameter. No subsite area has escaped unscathed by fire. Every area butone exhibits some indications of logging operations. In one subsite logging activitiesappear to be within the last 5 to 10 years. Given the altitude of over 2100 m and thepresence within 1 mi of three subsites of Sierra sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum), amore moisture -dependent species, it would be expected that this area would be a densemixed conifer and deciduous forest. There are Jeffrey pine, sugar pine (Pinuslambertiana), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta), red fir (Abies magnifica) and white fir(Abies concolor), along with several species of oaks (Quercus spp), ashes (Fraxinusspp) and maples (Acer spp). The understory is also diverse and fairly dense except onthe domes. Manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp) is the dominant shrub, but gooseberry (Ribesspp), buck brush (Ceanothus spp), bitter
as lupines
- CHRONOLOGY
brush (Purshia spp) and several other shrubs(Penstemon spp)are present. Wild flowers such
and composites are abundant.
PROGRAM ARSTANBUENAVISTA, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]
Chronology 1434 to 1981 (548 years)
(Lupinus spp), penstemons
STATISTICS
38 trees, 62 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTAN
Mean 1.000 1.000 1.000
Median .981 .997 .996
Mean sensitivity .141 .168 .143
Standard deviation .167 .147 .153
Skewness .323 .178 .268
Kurtosis 3.214 3.471 3.136
Autocorrelation order 1 .447 -.059 .299
Partial autocorr. order 2 .151 -.035 .052
Partial autocorr. order 3 .090 -.068 .016
Variance from autoregression 18.8 pct 8.9 pct
Error variance .005024 .003468Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .690
Common interval 1703 to 1958 (256 years) 35 trees, 54 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .315 .397
Between trees (Y variance) .311 .394
Within trees .572 .577
Signal -to -noise ratio 15.79 22.79
Agreement with pop. chron. .940 .958
Variance in eigenvector 1 33.25 pct 41.03 pctChron. common interval mean .997 1.000
Chron. common interval st dev .163 .153169
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171
BUENAVISTA. CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREY'
TREE RING INDICES
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1434 92 118 101 90 88 98 1 1 1 1 1 1
1440 105 114 104 113 37 117 134 129 136 112 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 21450 127 77 108 106 23 102 104 110 118 103 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 31460 105 80 146 113 21 125 62 93 78 110 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 31470 136 120 88 104 94 105 97 101 120 111 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 41480 129 111 100 97 20 92 101 84 67 111 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 41490 99 103 107 87 02 86 95 73 85 82 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 41500 74 78 95 67 08 79 73 78 93 143 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 61510 100 86 92 103 87 84 94 99 92 86 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 9 91520 110 105 101 97 05 112 91 91 120 107 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91530 96 110 78 61 01 97 90 78 94 123 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 91540 94 91 96 97 16 97 87 06 75 96 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 131550 98 100 127 126 16 90 108 98 106 116 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 141560 91 88 75 85 00 105 105 01 95 88 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 151570 76 81 92 86 93 104 102 17 106 79 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 181580 68 94 85 107 95 105 107 07 115 109 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 191590 92 111 105 84 102 118 100 18 92 98 20 21 21 22 23 24 24 24 25 251600 111 86 114 100 117 117 126 11 117 102 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 291610 101 107 97 91 94 108 101 01 120 98 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 311620 101 89 94 103 95 93 85 78 99 91 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 32 321630 86 76 93 83 96 96 118 75 78 95 32 32 32 33 33 34 34 34 34 361640 98 120 141 138 128 115 93 103 106 125 37 37 38 38 39 39 40 40 41 421650 119 113 130 114 99 68 91 89 102 96 42 42 42 42 42 42 43 43 44 451660 89 102 89 101 105 99 122 107 101 97 45 45 46 46 46 46 47 47 47 471670 100 114 104 105 113 115 94 93 99 100 47 48 48 48 49 50 50 50 51 521680 88 128 111 103 95 91 96 93 105 87 53 54 54 54 55 55 55 55 55 551690 78 91 99 81 86 98 90 113 99 110 56 56 57 57 57 57 57 58 58 591700 114 110 109 95 93 122 92 73 67 76 59 60 60 61 61 61 61 61 61 611710 86 76 78 99 96 90 95 112 104 107 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 621720 101 98 91 102 96 108 127 107 105 66 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 621730 92 106 102 102 101 94 96 105 103 109 62 62 62 62 62 62 62 61 61 611740 116 107 104 105 101 125 96 110 79 110 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611750 92 84 79 77 79 95 82 75 95 89 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611760 94 114 101 99 86 99 98 101 105 89 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611770 125 95 124 121 101 10 109 103 85 87 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611780 109 82 88 87 97 00 99 87 85 93 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611790 88 100 116 95 106 81 69 95 100 104 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611800 104 80 97 101 106 04 90 94 90 121 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 6t 61 611810 115 139 122 88 126 04 118 127 128 112 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611820 103 93 91 83 85 19 122 91 111 122 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611830 83 84 120 85 99 01 109 126 131 112 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611840 114 98 77 91 87 22 81 84 82 96 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611850 100 98 120 118 82 96 79 105 81 70 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 611860 105 30 97 114 98 82 115 99 113 112 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 601870 113 01 85 91 80 125 94 ill 98 112 59 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 581880 89 17 101 98 114 151 89 102 106 93 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 58 57 571890 97 07 99 85 115 108 100 116 109 102 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571900 121 44 109 89 87 99 104 124 129 112 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571910 84 93 97 142 114 78 87 74 83 91 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 56 56 561920 88 11 91 104 91 113 124 65 86 76 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 561930 87 28 85 69 106 79 103 91 100 121 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 561940 99 97 116 101 76 102 118 121 84 94 56 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 551950 104 08 89 94 126 81 84 103 135 88 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 541960 65 83 97 90 113 102 115 87 89 90 54 54 54 53 53 53 53 52 51 511970 72 78 100 102 99 76 101 114 109 100 51 51 51 51 51 49 49 49 48 481980 87 113 48 48
172
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE KEN Site no. 31
Site name: KENNEDY MEADOWSSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi
PINYON PINE, Pinus monophyllaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: TULAREAdministration: SEQUOIA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 15' series, Monache Mountain, CA 1956Elevation: 1902 -2146 m Latitude: 36° 02'N Longitude: 118° 11'W
No. of trees sampled: PIJE 29 No. of core samples: PIJE 58PIMO 2 PIMO 4
Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR
Site description:
Kennedy Meadows is a 40 square km (16 square mi) open meadow land along the eastside of the central portion of Sequoia National Forest in southeastern California, westof the south end of the Owens Valley. It is accessible from U.S. Highway 395, 41 km(25.5 mi) south southwest along Forest Road 23S03. It can also be reached from thewest or Kern River side via Forest Roads 22S05 and 21S02 about the same distance. The
site collection is from three subsites from 0.8 km (0.5 mi) to 4 km (2.5 mi) west ofKennedy Meadows. Soil is thin, less than 30 cm, on a bedrock base of granite bouldersand outcrops on steep (12° to 35 °) slopes and ridges trending north to south. The
sampled Jeffrey pine ranges from 11 to 24 m in height and 59 to 128 cm in diameter.The two sampled single- needle pinyon pine are 9 and 10 m tall and 65 and 75 cm in
diameter. On the ridges and rock piles the stands tend to be open, while off the rocks
and ridges the forest is fairly dense. In the lower subsite, single -needle pinyon is
the dominant tree species. In other subsites, Jeffrey pine is dominant or co- dominant
with pinyon. Juniper (Juniperus spp), oaks (Quercus spp) and several other shrubs such
as sagebrush (Artemisia spp), mountain mahogany (Cercocarpus spp), manzanita(Arctostaphylos spp) and rabbit brush (Chrysothamnus spp) comprise the understory. An
indicator of the xeric nature of this site is the presence of prickly pear cactus(Opuntia spp). Several archaeological artifacts were photographed.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSKENNEDY MEADOWS, CALIFORNIA [PIJE]
Chronology 1607 to 1981 (375 years) 29 trees, 58 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTAN
Mean 1.000 1.000 1.002
Median 1.022 1.048 1.031
Mean sensitivity .401 .461 .404
Standard deviation .409 .361 .411
Skewness -.141 -.607 -.217
Kurtosis 2.456 2.945 2.536
Autocorrelation order 1 .446 .010 .452
Partial autocorr. order 2 .107 -.021 .071
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.102 -.066 -.180
Variance from autoregression 21.8 pct 23.5 pct
Error variance .007073 .004267
Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .603
Common interval 1732 to 1976 (245 years) 26 trees, 44 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .717 .708
Between trees (Y variance) .713 .705
Within trees .869 .832
Signal -to -noise ratio 64.56 62.22
Agreement with pop. chron. .985 .984
Variance in eigenvector 1 71.77 pct 71.12 pct
Chron. common interval mean .985 .993
Chron. common interval st dev .427 .366
173
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KENNEDY HEADOUS. CALIFORNIA FINDS JEFFREY!
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
1607 137 134
9
124
0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUHBER OF SAHPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2 4 41610 146 147 136 18 87 122 157 149 119 116 2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 41620 139 100 51 103 98 137 63 93 103 59 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 61630 97 66 54 III 55 137 107 62 61 76 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 71640 120 137 162 114 90 110 91 77 90 153 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 101650 91 140 125 45 17 23 99 94 75 104 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 141660 127 162 155 99 131 72 51 16 63 35 14 15 15 15 17 17 20 21 21 211670 20 55 83 94 116 115 41 99 110 112 21 21 23 23 23 23 25 25 27 281680 137 97 146 117 90 122 81 138 142 136 28 30 30 30 32 33 36 36 36 381690 50 2 84 116 113 94 114 137 123 124 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 40 40 401700 151 87 157 102 97 146 52 50 55 83 40 41 42 42 42 42 43 43 44 441710 54 96 115 120 94 96 101 128 116 96 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 451720 140 95 107 126 117 119 172 151 127 12 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 47 47 471730 90 114 120 83 130 40 54 40 108 61 47 48 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 501740 91 104 123 150 170 207 188 171 86 96 51 5! 51 51 51 50 50 51 51 521750 97 72 101 80 56 53 56 54 84 60 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 53 531760 107 125 112 111 129 18 130 91 142 93 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 531770 77 111 126 95 130 145 108 36 35 70 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 541780 84 106 43 20 98 93 111 129 53 110 54 54 54 54 54 54 55 55 55 551790 122 134 155 162 84 1 30 124 100 165 55 55 56 56 56 57 57 57 57 571800 107 141 143 112 149 53 127 57 59 87 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571810 90 134 68 58 99 72 133 123 157 173 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571820 129 152 47 45 50 106 157 136 166 47 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571830 88 106 166 131 71 68 19 113 111 137 57 57 57 57 '57 57 57 57 57 571840 159 41 111 20 47 34 70 61 81 93 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571850 104 72 124 129 134 169 37 47 26 86 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571860 94 133 138 68 39 80 94 113 170 166 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571870 92 86 134 120 150 135 146 14 117 37 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571880 75 79 33 26 ' 66 94 94 122 138 137 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571890 152 187 120 157 73 142 112 134 5 25 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571900 29 104 92 87 53 105 110 158 168 182 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571910 161 145 90 120 156 133 168 144 145 123 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571920 146 157 140 61 2 69 94 86 60 63 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571930 106 82 111 81 35 85 81 103 117 107 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 571940 119 134 156 175 146 149 149 124 26 45 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 55 551950 54 50 84 93 91 63 95 82 90 42 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 541960 59 14 79 71 64 97 99 115 113 151 54 53 53 53 53 53 53 52 52 521970 109 98 40 100 108 95 48 110 131 151 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 51 51 511980 194 141 51 50
175
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE PIU Site no. 32
Site name: PIUTE MOUNTAINSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyi,
PONDEROSA PINE, Pinus ponderosaCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: KERNAdministration: SEQUOIA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Lake Isabella South, CA 1972Elevation: 1951 -2012 m Latitude: 35° 32'N Longitude: 118° 26'WNo. of trees sampled: PIJE 12 No. of core samples: PIJE 26
PIPO 10 PIPO 20
Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, RKA, MRR
Site description:
The Piute Mountains are in south central California in the southernmost portion ofSequoia National Forest south of Isabella Lake. The four collected subsite areas arescattered for 1.6 km (1 mi) along the Saddle Springs Road (Forest Road 27S02) betweenStudebaker Flat and the Valley View Mine. Access is from State Highway 178 through thevillage of Bodfish, then south 2.4 km (1.5 mi) to Ball Mountain and southeast on SaddleSprings Road past Bald Eagle Peak. The Saddle Springs Road parallels a northwest tosoutheast trending granite ridge. There are a few granite rock piles, but most of thegranite is weathered into 1 to 2 m of deep sandy soil on moderate to steep (8° to 22 °)northwest, northeast and southeast facing slopes. The sampled trees range from 8 to 20m in height and from 54 to 122 cm in diameter. The overstory of mixed conifers Jeffreypine, ponderosa pine, sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana) and white fir (Abies concolor) isfairly dense with open areas due to forest fires or logging. The understory is densewith oaks (Quercus spp), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp), buckbrush (Ceanothus spp) andsome sagebrush (Artemisia spp). There is also some yucca (Yucca spp) which is anindicator of moderately xeric conditions.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSPIUTE MOUNTAIN, CALIFORNIA [PIJE, PIPO]Chronology 1528 to 1981 (454 years) 22 trees, 48 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 2) ARSTAN
Mean 1.000 1.000 .994
Median 1.013 1.025 1.003
Mean sensitivity .216 .250 .213
Standard deviation .279 .223 .287
Skewness -.128 -.357 -.140Kurtosis 2.856 3.121 2.834
Autocorrelation order 1 .580 .056 .624
Partial autocorr. order 2 .115 -.017 .071
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.011 -.016 -.019
Variance from autoregression 32.7 pct 38.1 pct
Error variance .003172 .003310Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) 1.043
Common interval 1764 to 1950 (187 years) 21 trees, 38 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)Among all radii .518 .480Between trees (Y variance) .509 .473
Within trees .760 .697
Signal -to -noise ratio 21.81 18.86
Agreement with pop. chron. .956 .950
Variance in eigenvector 1 52.57 pct 49.21 pctChron. common interval mean 1.019 1.003
Chron. common interval st dev .295 .227
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177
PIUTE MOUNTAINS. CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREY! & PINUS PONDEROSA
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
1528 45 36
1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 1
1530 30 99 72 46 82 84 100 117 94 108 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1
1540 80 70 43 48 42 40 44 61 62 79 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1550 95 99 122 120 92 89 94 103 107 1 1 1 1 1 1 t 1 I 1 I 1 I
1560 98 105 90 79 136 130 127 122 133 143 1 1 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1
1570 127 79 69 110 116 120 102 136 94 67 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 31580 21 98 98 126 89 44 102 108 126 129 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6
1590 93 134 112 110 114 115 116 63 60 86 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 11 12 12
1600 64 94 100 112 117 128 121 106 160 119 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
1610 153 138 118 66 96 123 125 124 120 127 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
1620 123 94 85 114 106 118 84 96 103 59 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15
1630 90 82 49 86 61 105 107 59 79 82 15 15 15 15 15 16 i6 16 16 16
1640 112 155 157 133 144 138 105 113 106 141 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 181650 132 132 126 68 29 42 77 76 77 82 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 201660 141 140 133 129 131 101 96 60 88 68 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 221670 61 81 106 109 115 134 58 81 76 91 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 24 25 251680 94 121 131 115 104 108 87 119 132 93 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 261690 90 67 102 101 103 115 117 135 123 143 26 26 26 26 27 27 28 29 29 291700 150 109 136 105 97 139 104 72 70 89 29 29 29 30 30 30 31 31 31 31
1710 73 73 95 102 100 107 95 104 108 113 31 32 32 32 32 32 33 33 33 331720 127 92 71 104 88 99 115 121 114 34 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 34 35 351730 77 96 91 72 104 47 72 65 125 102 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351740 99 116 130 142 138 161 147 146 105 115 35 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 38 381750 105 77 106 78 72 92 61 65 95 71 38 38 39 39 39 40 40 40 42 431760 93 129 114 107 102 67 124 106 110 107 44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 451770 67 112 104 93 116 130 77 47 40 52 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 43 43 431780 53 58 35 19 75 88 82 90 60 100 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431790 105 124 134 133 97 47 53 105 87 92 43 43 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451800 83 93 118 113 128 107 105 97 80 140 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
1810 116 152 111 100 127 136 146 140 163 159 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451820 168 152 92 86 68 114 143 116 148 91 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451830 97 118 161 105 80 86 90 115 143 139 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 451840 126 70 94 50 50 72 64 64 78 85 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44
1850 101 76 89 106 87 114 71 87 57 67 44 44 44 44 44 44 43 43 43 431860 78 87 71 82 38 47 64 76 108 109 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42
1870 97 98 117 113 88 91 106 48 96 47 42 42 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431880 54 88 76 70 98 131 107 119 120 107 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431890 125 143 126 160 161 164 158 152 105 98 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431900 115 130 121 100 99 119 125 152 163 146 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431910 118 112 110 138 137 110 109 90 74 99 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431920 108 125 82 114 83 111 122 86 117 98 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431930 105 90 104 87 51 81 78 61 81 87 43 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 41 41
1940 96 109 131 148 116 114 142 104 77 71 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
1950 94 102 67 99 104 85 94 86 99 45 41 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 38 361960 54 44 65 78 104 100 96 112 122 104 36 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 331970 98 88 69 95 119 87 81 83 89 97 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 331980 100 102 33 33
173
TREE -RING COLLECTION SITE SOR Site no. 33
Site name: SORREL PEAKSpecies collected: JEFFREY PINE, Pinus jeffreyiCountry: U.S.A. State: CALIFORNIA County: KERNAdministration: SEQUOIA NATIONAL FORESTMap reference: USGS 7.5' series, Claraville, CA 1972Elevation: 1975 -2256 m Latitude: 35° 26'N Longitude: 118° 17'W
No. of trees sampled: 25 No. of core samples: 48Date of collection: JUL 1982 Collectors: RLH, MRR, RKA
Site description:
Sorrel Peak is in the Piute Mountains at the eastern boundary of the southernmostsection of Sequoia National Forest in south central California. The sampled trees arefrom three subsites accessible from Piute Mountain Road (Forest Road 28S01). Two areasare on the northwest end of St. John Ridge, 1.2 km (0.8 mi) northeast of Lander Meadow.The sampled trees are on a north- facing very steep (26° to 35 °) colluvial slope. Theopen stand of Jeffrey pine is growing in 1 to 2 m of weathered granitic sands below thebreak in slope of the St. John Ridge cliff face. In two areas, there are single -needlepinyon (Pinus monophylla), and the understory consists of scattered oaks (Quercus spp),sagebrush (Artemisia spp) and rabbit brush (Chrysothamnus spp). A third subsite areais 3.2 km (2 mi) south of Lander Meadow on the northwest flank of Sorrel Peak justabove an abandoned mine shaft. The west- facing slopes here are moderate to steep (18°to 30 °) with vertical dropoffs. Deep granitic sands, bedrock outcrops and rock pilescover the site, and the stand is somewhat denser. There are signs of recent logging.Some trees show fire scars and several have insect damage. Associated species includewhite fir (Abies concolor), manzanita (Arctostaphylos spp) and varieties of oak(Quercus spp). The sampled trees range from 8 to 20 m in height and from 44 to 96 cmin diameter.
PROGRAM ARSTAN - CHRONOLOGY STATISTICSSORREL PEAK, CALIFORNIA (PIJE]Chronology 1505 to 1981 (477 years) 25 trees, 46 radii
Chronology type STNDRD RESID (AR 3) ARSTAN
Mean 1.000 1.000 .999
Median 1.030 1.044 1.031
Mean sensitivity .291 .332 .294
Standard deviation .314 .278 .304
Skewness -.257 -.751 -.428
Kurtosis 2.856 3.745 3.061
Autocorrelation order 1 .418 .006 .379
Partial autocorr. order 2 .150 -.028 .112
Partial autocorr. order 3 -.056 -.078 -.142
Variance from autoregression 18.9 pct 16.5 pct
Error variance .004615 .003485Ratio of error variance of chronologies (ARSTAN /STNDRD) .755
Common interval 1692 to 1947 (256 years) 21 trees, 32 radiiDETRENDED RESIDUALS
Mean correlations SERIES (WHITE NOISE)
Among all radii .621 .649
Between trees (Y variance) .616 .645
Within trees .807 .791
Signal -to -noise ratio 33.69 38.18
Agreement with pop. chron. .971 .974
Variance in eigenvector 1 62.78 pct 65.62 pct
Chron. common interval mean 1.022 1.011
Chron. common interval st dev .320 .288
179
2.0 1.8-
1.6-
1.4-
1.2-
x_
1.0
z_
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6017
8018
0018
2018
4018
6018
8019
0019
2019
4019
6019
80Y
EA
RS
Figure A3 -8.
ARSTAN chronology for Site 33, Sorrel Peak, California, Pinus ffreyi.
2.0
-1.8
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-0.8
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SORREL PEAK. CALIFORNIA PINUS JEFFREYI
TREE RING INDICESDATE 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2
ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY
NUMBER OF SAMPLES3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1505 73 88 99 146 130 1 1 1 1 1
1510 112 104 89 112 65 53 79 79 99 88 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
1520 46 48 67 73 105 92 91 108 80 63 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 51530 70 105 88 97 104 133 113 90 110 150 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 51540 100 86 78 102 140 112 99 80 66 88 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 71550 106 121 131 136 124 107 98 101 118 126 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 91560 121 104 107 97 118 128 118 123 115 94 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
1570 103 48 104 84 83 73 63 113 102 44 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
1580 28 99 97 125 88 50 104 121 102 152 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12
1590 47 124 89 104 112 119 135 73 91 96 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 121600 81 136 126 123 123 154 131 103 153 122 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 13
1610 148 147 106 13 87 94 129 128 129 104 13 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 151620 111 95 112 110 98 118 62 100 104 91 15 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 18 181630 96 75 57 89 63 103 93 40 48 74 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 201640 102 124 137 106 124 116 93 85 83 122 20 20 20 22 22 22 24 24 24 241650 104 121 134 57 28 37 97 91 99 103 24 24 24 25 25 26 28 28 28 281660 124 141 143 123 137 67 67 31 99 63 29 29 29 30 31 31 32 32 32 331670 41 97 104 123 126 135 47 105 100 125 33 33 33 33 33 33 34 34 34 341680 138 127 155 119 84 126 62 132 128 125 34 34 34 34 34 35 35 36 36 371690 73 19 115 95 98 113 97 117 88 130 37 37 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381700 148 127 162 100 111 140 69 59 60 72 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381710 64 92 98 111 88 137 95 120 107 104 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 381720 133 132 111 135 112 120 177 138 111 45 38 38 38 38 39 39 40 40 40 401730 97 88 98 56 101 30 68 50 107 72 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 411740 99 107 123 127 129 135 122 130 82 85 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 42 421750 113 64 85 57 55 59 68 64 103 79 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 411760 93 103 102 101 108 25 119 84 120 83 41 41 41 42 42 43 43 43 43 431770 91 107 103 65 104 120 99 34 64 92 43 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 44 441780 104 109 55 64 121 106 112 112 70 102 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441790 99 124 141 133 86 6 67 95 104 124 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441800 95 115 121 94 136 77 130 89 82 133 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 441810 84 156 114 77 108 104 130 126 167 149 44 44 44 43 43 43 43 43 43 431820 91 139 68 43 73 103 140 118 170 71 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431830 109 109 173 135 71 61 81 123 149 141 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431840 173 53 97 28 66 62 104 65 107 121 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431850 132 104 131 133 117 159 41 56 51 79 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 431860 119 124 109 68 21 70 87 112 141 126 43 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421870 76 84 108 93 101 109 120 21 112 58 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421880 82 79 55 47 86 95 94 102 124 123 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421890 139 149 122 139 104 129 112 139 19 46 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421900 63 123 103 101 77 104 118 138 131 150 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421910 131 119 110 139 155 138 146 123 121 120 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 42 421920 122 133 116 95 38 110 115 91 94 67 42 42 42 41 40 40 40 40 40 401930 112 108 118 74 49 85 86 100 96 97 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 401940 106 124 129 137 121 132 130 119 52 71 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 36 351950 76 56 89 79 80 64 80 74 96 51 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 351960 85 35 92 81 104 111 110 106 113 120 35 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 311970 106 87 27 102 100 66 101 115 125 123 29 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 271980 132 128 27 27
182
