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TREES AND CONSERVATION
AGRICULTURE IN ARID AREAS ZAMBIA CASE STUDY
MICCA Learning Event – 13 September 2012
Samuel Bell Doctoral Candidate, Dyson School at Cornell University
Director, Shared Value Africa Ltd.
Introduction
• Working in Zambia since 2006
• Doctoral research on sustainable development and synergies
between agriculture and environment
• Project development and carbon finance
• Project Partners include:
• Dunavant Zambia Ltd (cotton company)
• Community Markets for Conservation “COMACO”
• USAID/Profit and Musika International Development
• Research Partners include:
• Innovations for Poverty Action
• Tufts University, Harvard, UCSB
• World Vision / Land O’ Lakes Development
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar
Today’s topics
1. Trees on Farms Programme – Nthaka Yamoyo
• Agriculture in Zambia
• Conservation agriculture (CA) and actors in Zambia
• Adding trees to CA (Faidherbia and Gliricidia) and benefits
• Farmer Economics of trees and conservation agriculture
• Monitoring technology and preliminary data/findings
2. Trees, Conservation Agriculture and Carbon Markets
• Soil carbon accounting methodologies
• Methodologies: limitations for trees with CA
• Project economics
3. Current Research on Adoption- randomized controlled trial
• Objectives and design
• Preliminary Results
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar
Smallholder Agriculture in Zambia
• Degraded soils and low input - low yield (1 - 2 t/ha maize) rain-fed
small subsistence farming systems using ploughing, ridging and
ridge-splitting
• Focus regions average 700-1000mm rainfall, short growing season
• 29% of land is agriculture,
but only 7% arable (FAO)
• 67% of maize producers (1m+ hhs)
farm 1.1ha and no surplus yield
• Rural households increased by 45%
2000-2010
• Agriculture key driver of
very high deforestation rate
• How to improve these stats?
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 1. Trees on Farms Programme
Agroecological Regions of Zambia
Conservation Agriculture in Zambia
• Key Zambian organizations promoting Conservation Agriculture:
• Conservation Farming Unit (est.1996): primary focus tillage & good
agronomy – a leader in developing best practice conservation
agriculture in Zambia
• Community Markets for Conservation (est. 2003): focus on protecting
biodiversity through diversified livelihoods, markets, and CA
• Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, DRZ
• Common Challenges:
• Barriers to adoption
• Weak marketing of immediate benefits (resulting from good agronomy)
• Perceived longer time horizon of investment
• Resource constrained (land and labor)
• Farmer unable to benefit from positive externalities (incentives needed)
• Policy environment distorts incentives, crowds out investment
• Farmer input support programme, Food Reserve Agency
1. Trees on Farms Programme Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar
Trees on Farms Programme - Zambia
Features Trees on Farms Programme
Programme objectives • Increasing agricultural productivity
• Increasing climate resilience
• Climate change mitigation (emission reductions)
Farming systems • Small-scale, subsistence and outgrower agriculture
• Mixed cropping systems
Key activities • Tree planting to enhance conservation agriculture
• Focus on nitrogen fixing species Faidherbia albida
and Gliricidia sepium
Project developer Shared Value Africa Ltd
Aggregation 7,000 farmer households by end of 2012, scaling to
80,000 in 2015. Lead farmer extension structure
Scale-up partners Dunavant Zambia Ltd, Musika International
Development Zambia, others
1. Trees on Farms Programme Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar
Enhancing conservation agriculture with
intercropped legume trees • Conservation agriculture improves SOC by impacting 3
major factors influencing it: 1. Increased quantities of organic materials returned to soils (no burning
and biomass from cover crops)
2. Preservation of soil aggregates: minimum or no tillage, eg permanent
planting basins, magoye ripper, disturbs
Adding trees to the mix (legumes!)
• Sequencing: Gliricidia (short term) and Faidherbia (long term
• Faidherbia is reverse phenology, and very well suited to
interplanting
• No competition with crops in growing season
• Active in dry season; pods for livestock (up to 1000kg/tree) and flowers
for honey in time of scarcity (Barnes, 2003)
• Nutrient cycling from deep soil, high biomass production
• Widespread evidence of yield increases; up to 240-400% (CFU)
• Gliricidia is fast growing legume, can be coppiced
• Added biomass to soils, nitrogen fixing,
• Coppiced biomass for other purposes (energy needs, urban markets)
• Environmental benefits: Climate mitigation, soil health & fertility,
erosion protection, improve soil structure water infiltration etc
• Co-benefits - food security, resilience to weather shocks
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 1. Trees on Farms Programme
Farmer Economics
Get the priorities right:
Evidence on CA in Zambia suggests yields of 5 t/ha maize is feasible (CFU, 2011).
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 1. Trees on Farms Programme
Farmer Economics
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 2. Trees, CA & Carbon Markets
Source: World Bank
Kenya Agricultural Carbon Project:
Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) for a
Learning laboratory • Real time data using mobile-phone based surveys
• Integrated GPS allows for plot geo-referencing
• Cost effective &
user-friendly
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 1. Trees on Farms Programme
M&E for a learning laboratory • Adaptive management key in addressing challenges
• Data arriving real-time, reducing lead-time to include results in
planning
• Survey currently underway, some preliminary results
• ~ 50% of farmers who joined training sessions planted trees
• Some evidence of adoption by those most to benefit:
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 1. Trees on Farms Programme
26
40
63
14
26
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Clay Loam Sand
Average Tree Planting & Survival by Soil Type
Planted Faidherbia
Surviving Faidherbia
13% 12%
5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Good Normal Poor
Crop Residue Burning by Soil Quality (self reported)
Burned
Source: Trees on Farms
M&E for a learning laboratory • How to use this information?
• Refocus training
• Use data analysis to evaluate…
• Causal impact on outcomes?
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 1. Trees on Farms Programme
16%
31%
24%
5%
24%
Biggest Challenges in Tree Planting
Building fire breaks
Managing nursery
Other
preparing field and transplanting seedlings
watering during dry season
Source: Trees on Farms data
Consider alternative models
- Centralized nurseries?
Technology adoption spillovers
- A market for seedlings?
Source: Lewis et al, 2011, PNAS
Trees, CA and Carbon Markets Soil Carbon Accounting Methodologies and Standards
•Increasing soil carbon through conservation agriculture
• applicable only under voluntary markets (eg Verified Carbon Standard),
not Clean Development Mechanism
• Two accounting options
• Measurement – eg “Soil Carbon” methodology (under review)
• activity-based modeling – eg Adoption of Sustainable Land Management
Practices (SALM) (approved)
•Soil carbon meth is broad in scope
• Allows estimates to 90cm depth
•SALM is more focused on CA practices
• Only 30cm max modeled depth.
•Each allow for the inclusion of trees.
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 2. Trees, CA & Carbon Markets
Limitations of methodologies • Methodologies if trees are added to conservation agriculture:
• CDM (AR-AMS0004) allows a default 0.5tC/ha/yr (1.83 tCO2/ha/yr) over
20 years.
• SALM applies AR-AMS0001e for woody biomass and modeling for soil
carbon and nitrogen emissions from legumes
• Both approaches are reasonable measures of soil carbon
increments from conservation agriculture alone, but don’t capture
full potential of trees due to soil depth limitations.
• For example: Maize-Gliricidia (coppiced) led to 60-76 tC/ha in 7-
10yrs (Kaonga, 2009)
• Soil dynamics and greenhouse gas very complex – N02/CH4?
• Chronosequences, or extension of current soil models to include
lower soil profiles?
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 2. Trees, CA & Carbon Markets
Project Economics • High cost of entry, substantial regulatory risks involved
• Aggregation is key
• Institutional setting &
Transaction costs
• Low cost/high quality
monitoring systems
• Donor or grant funding
at outset (public/private)
• Emphasize farmer benefits
and co-benefits
• carbon is a distraction
• Linkages with related
activities
• REDD+
• Household energy needs
(fuelwood cookstoves)
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 2. Trees, CA & Carbon Markets
Project Economics Results of the agricultural mitigation potential screening: Focus on
smallholder mixed cropping systems & best coffee practices
Commodity Smallholder
Mixed cropping
systems
Maize Bio-fuels Coffee Tea Sugar
Area available in
million ha
3 1.6 Semi-arid: 0.9 0.15 0.15 0.14
GHG mitigation
activities
SALM: Agronomy
Nutrient mgmt
Water mgmt
Agroforestry
Set aside land
Residue
mgmt.
Jatropha/Crot
on
1) Fuel-switch
2) AR
1) Shade trees,
multiple
cropping
2) Mulching
3) Fertilizer use
efficiency
Inter-
cropping
no option
in Kenya
1) No/ burning of
residues
2) Mulching
systems
3) Fertilizer related
emissions
Existing
extension
service
0 0 0 + ++ +
Tech. GHG
mitigation
potential in t
CO2e/ha/y.
2 - 5 0.5 1) 1-12
2) 2.5-5.0
High
bandwidth
3 – 8 ----- 7.8 in 3 years
14 in 10 y.
20 in 20 y.
Economic
mitigation
potential
++ ? ? ++ 0 +
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 2. Trees, CA & Carbon Markets
Source: World Bank
Project Economics • Based on preliminary data, Faidherbia 7.6 tCO2/ha per annum
averaged over 20yrs (a large tree)
• Including default 0.5tC/ha per annum soil carbon
• Growth in sigmoidal form –
annualizing returns dependent on
ERPA forward sales (unlikely)
• Very low initial revenue streams
• Paired with Gliricidia
• Fast growing
• Coppicing results in high root
turnover and soil carbon increase
• Climate mitigation and carbon
finance potential increases greatly
through a sequenced approach in Zambia
• BUT - Get the priorities right - primary concern farmer benefits
.
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 2. Trees, CA & Carbon Markets
Yr 0 Yr 20
Randomized Controlled Trial (RCT) Implemented within the Trees for Farms Programme partnering with
Dunavant (out-grower cotton company)
• ~ 1200 total participants in one district, planting 50 FA trees in ½ ha
•Fits into literature on Payments for Environmental Services, but
applicable to agricultural technology adoption challenges
Setting:
•Tree planting: long-term private benefits, with positive externalities
under-provision of tree planting
• Change prices (provide incentives or lower take-up costs) to increase
the provision of tree planting to socially efficient levels.
•Non-binding contracts and uncertain opportunity costs lead to:
• High take-up & low performance
• Increased transaction costs (project implementation costs increase)
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 3. Trees; Research on Adoption
RCT
Objectives:
• How to structure contract design to improve programme performance?
Research design
• Systematic variation in direct incentives and cost sharing of inputs
• Attendance fee to address liquidity issues
• Randomization and controls
Design allows us to
• separate two factors in determining outcomes:
• Selection effect
• Effort effect
• and look for evidence of
• the option value of contract
• Information and liquidity constraints affecting adoption
• the effect of monitoring on outcomes
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 3. Trees; Research on Adoption
RCT – preliminary results Survival data not yet available, but we have transplanting data
• Take-up is decreasing in cost-sharing, and increasing in reward
• 2.2% decrease in probability of take-up for 1000ZMK (USD 0.2)
increase in input price.
• 0.4% increase in probability of take-up for 5000 ZMK (USD 1) increase
in reward
• Compliance (40 trees transplanted) increasing in reward
• 0.1% increase in probability of compliance for 1000 ZMK increase in
reward
• Impact of monitoring and support
• On average, weekly monitoring increases the number of trees planted
by 11, representing a 40% increase from 28
• Tentative conclusion? Cost sharing in order to provide greater
incentives not a good idea. Emphasize monitoring/support!
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 3. Trees; Research on Adoption
RCT – preliminary results
Potential for targeting?
Variability in transplanting (realized uncertainty in performance) as it
is seen by programme implementers:
• Only 20% of this variability is unknown to farmers (individual
uncertainty)
• Remaining 80% of the uncertainty the programme faces is the
result of the different types of farmers out there (related to ability,
constraints, opportunity costs, preferences and the constraints
under which they operate.
Targeting to enhance programme outcomes could be possible.
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar 3. Trees; Research on Adoption
Review and conclusions
1. Trees on Farms Programme – Nthaka Yamoyo • Agriculture in Zambia
• CA practices and actors in Zambia
• Tree ‘technology’ (Faidherbia and Gliricidia) and benefits
• Monitoring technology and preliminary data/findings
2. Trees, CA and Carbon Markets • Market access
• Methodologies and challenges
• Economics and incentives
3. Current research on adoption- randomized controlled trial
• Objectives and design
• Preliminary Results
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar
Thank you
References and links:
Conservation Farming Unit, Zambia: http://conservationagriculture.org/
Barnes, 2003. Faidherbia Albida: Monograph and Annotated Bibliography, Tropical Forestry Papers
no. 41. 267pp. Oxford Forestry Institute (OFI). Oxford, UK. ISBN:0 85704 156 4. ISSN:0141-9668 (an
http://www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/Output/11837/Default.aspx (pdf available - an excellent resource)
Kaonga, Martin L., and Tim P. Bayliss-Smith. 2009. "Carbon pools in tree biomass and the soil in
improved fallows in eastern Zambia". Agroforestry Systems. 76 (1): 37-51.
Lewis D., Kabila M., Mukamba M., Bell S.D., Lee D.R., et al. 2011. "Community Markets for
Conservation (COMACO) links biodiversity conservation with sustainable improvements in livelihoods
and food production". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of
America. 108 (34): 13957-13962.
RCT Research Authors: Jack, K (Tufts); Oliva, P (UCSB); Walker, E (Harvard); Bell, S (Cornell).
Verified Carbon Standard: http://v-c-s.org/
Trees & CA in Zambia – MICCA Webinar
http://conservationagriculture.org/http://www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/Output/11837/Default.aspxhttp://www.dfid.gov.uk/r4d/Output/11837/Default.aspxhttp://v-c-s.org/http://v-c-s.org/http://v-c-s.org/http://v-c-s.org/http://v-c-s.org/