TREMOVE: from policy simulations to support for emissions projections

European Commission - DG Environment

Jacques DelsalleJacques DelsalleUnit C5 – Energy and EnvironmentUnit C5 – Energy and Environment

TREMOVE: from policy simulations to TREMOVE: from policy simulations to support for emissions projectionssupport for emissions projections

TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections TFEIP Workshop on Emission Projections

Thessaloniki, 30/10/2006Thessaloniki, 30/10/2006

European Commission - DG Environment Energy and Environment

Impact Assessment of Transport Impact Assessment of Transport Policies with TREMOVEPolicies with TREMOVE

TREMOVE model: a basic tool for the Impact Assessment of TREMOVE model: a basic tool for the Impact Assessment of transport-related policy proposals at EU level.transport-related policy proposals at EU level.

Analysis of the economic and enviromental impacts of transport and environment policies, focusing on vehicle technologies / emission factors and economic instruments

1st version for Auto Oil II (1998-2000) (9 countries, road only) New version developed for CAFE and NEC (21 countries, all modes) Further development on track: all Member States + Accession / Candidates

Countries, better user interface, more flexibility) The model is / will be used for:The model is / will be used for:

Euro 5/6, Euro VI Emission standards CO2+Cars Strategy Review Truck retrofit Infrastructure charging (Eurovignette) Fuel and vehicle taxation Technical options for maritime pollution


A complex model…A complex model…

Source: Transport & Source: Transport & Mobility LeuvenMobility Leuven


Stakeholder consultation & Stakeholder consultation & transparencytransparency

2001 Model review:2001 Model review: Decision to further develop Tremove 1, to cover all EU-15 MS + future MS, and all

transport modes Data sources should be preferently EU-wide. Link with SCENES for complex policy

scenarios. TREMOVE Contact groupTREMOVE Contact group

2001-2002, ad-hoc group of modellers and country experts. 2004: enlargement to CAFE-WGTSPA members: need to further calibrate based on

country data 13 versions in 3 years. 13 versions in 3 years.

v2.32b used in Euro 5/6 (march 2005) v2.40 used for ASSESS and country consultation end 2005 v2.43b used for CO2+Cars impact assessment V2.44 to be used for Euro VI

Not all model versions and baseline available on the website (only end-products Not all model versions and baseline available on the website (only end-products for consultation and contract deliverable)for consultation and contract deliverable)

Principle: complex but not a black box: all parameters and dataset are available.Principle: complex but not a black box: all parameters and dataset are available.


Example of TREMOVE simulation Example of TREMOVE simulation for a Euro-standard scenariofor a Euro-standard scenario

Scenario:Δ Cost vehicle

Δ Emission factorsΔ fuel consumption

Δ cost for transport (purchase +

running)

Δ transport demand

Δ new cars sales

Δ split between vehicle categories (size, fuel)

Δ vehicle stock

Δ Emissions

Absolute cost

Relative lifetime costs

Emission factors


TREMOVE model structure TREMOVE model structure and data needsand data needs

Transport demand ModuleTransport demand ModuleTransport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of Transport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of

transport supplytransport supply

Transport demand ModuleTransport demand ModuleTransport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of Transport users reactions to changes in generalised prices of

transport supplytransport supply

Vehicle Stock ModuleVehicle Stock ModuleEstimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural Estimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural scrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demandscrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demand

Vehicle Stock ModuleVehicle Stock ModuleEstimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural Estimate sales of new vehicle taking into account natural scrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demandscrappage, price of new vehicles and transport demand

Pollutant Emissions ModulePollutant Emissions ModuleCalculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases Calculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases

emissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspectiveemissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspective

Pollutant Emissions ModulePollutant Emissions ModuleCalculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases Calculate fuel consumption, pollutant and greenhouse gases

emissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspectiveemissions, in a « Well to Wheel » perspective

Welfare ModuleWelfare ModuleCalculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of Calculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of

public funding, and environmental benefitspublic funding, and environmental benefits

Welfare ModuleWelfare ModuleCalculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of Calculate changes in consumer and producer surplus, cost of

public funding, and environmental benefitspublic funding, and environmental benefits

Transport demand BaselineTransport demand BaselineExogeneous: from DG TREN models or national baselinesExogeneous: from DG TREN models or national baselines

Demand volumes Demand volumes and patterns, and patterns,

costscosts

Demand volumes Demand volumes and patterns, and patterns,

costscosts

Data needsData needs

vehicle stock by vehicle stock by technology, coststechnology, costsvehicle stock by vehicle stock by

technology, coststechnology, costs

Emission Emission inventoriesinventoriesEmission Emission

inventoriesinventories

Demand elasticities Demand elasticities of substitutionof substitution

Demand elasticities Demand elasticities of substitutionof substitution

Parameters for Parameters for vehicle choice and vehicle choice and

stock renewalstock renewal

Parameters for Parameters for vehicle choice and vehicle choice and

stock renewalstock renewal

Emission Factors Emission Factors (COPERT, JRC-WtW)(COPERT, JRC-WtW)

Emission Factors Emission Factors (COPERT, JRC-WtW)(COPERT, JRC-WtW)

External cost values, External cost values, revenue recycling revenue recycling

optionsoptions

External cost values, External cost values, revenue recycling revenue recycling

optionsoptions

KnowledgeKnowledgeneedsneeds


Transport demand baseline Transport demand baseline is exogeneousis exogeneous

TREMOVE needs a consistent and detailed transport TREMOVE needs a consistent and detailed transport demand forecast as inputdemand forecast as input Evolution of transport volumes [pkm,tkm]

Per transport mode / freight category Per region (metropolitan, other urban regions, rural) Per road type Per time period (peak or off-peak)

Evolution of transport user prices [€/km] Currently European network model ‘SCENES’ is used to

produce baseline: Consistent between countries Calibrated on Transport In Figures (Eurostat)


SCENESSCENES

The SCENES model is a European-wide multi-modal integrated passenger and The SCENES model is a European-wide multi-modal integrated passenger and freight transport model. freight transport model.

The model provides transport demand forecasts for both 2010 and 2020, based on a set of macro-economic and trade assumptions.

A traditional four-stage model:A traditional four-stage model: Trip generation determines the frequency of origins or destinations of trips in each

zone by trip purpose , as a function of land uses and household demographics, and other socio-economic factors

Trip distribution matches origins with destinations, often using a gravity model function, equivalent to an entropy-maximizing model.

Mode choice computes the proportion of trips between each origin and destination that use a particular transportation mode.

Route assignment allocates trips between an origin and destination by a particular mode to a route.

Features:Features: Freight demand model based on regional economic model (REM) using input-output

techniques or trade-based matrices of goods movements. The passenger demand model uses a uniform trip generation and distribution

mechanism, based on the age, employment and car ownership profiles of the population in each model zone


Vehicle Stock modellingVehicle Stock modelling

Surviving StockSurviving Stock the stock per vehicle category surviving from the year t-1 is calculated, based on

Weibull functions where survival decreases with the age of the car. New Sales (Stock Size)New Sales (Stock Size)

Translation of the demand (vehicle-km in year t) into “desired stock”, based on the average mileage of the vehicle category (fleet and transport volume statistics of 1995 or later)

The difference between desired stock and surviving stock gives the sales of new vehicles in year t.

Vehicle Types and Technologies (Stock Composition)Vehicle Types and Technologies (Stock Composition) Amount of new vehicles (small cars) divided into vehicle types (small gasoline car,

small CNG car etc.) using a car sales logit model. The model estimates the shares of the vehicle types based on the total lifetime price of

the car, insurance, maintenance, fuel, and consumer preferences. Detailed Vehicle-kmDetailed Vehicle-km

For each vehicle type, we obtain a complete description of the forecasted age structure and thus technology structure.

The annual mileage per vehicle type evolves with the vehicle’s age. Combing this with the age structure we obtain, for each type, an estimate of the number of vkm driven by vehicles of a given age.


Calibration issuesCalibration issues

A double consistency is required: Vehicle volume = Activity number / load factor = Vehicle stock x mileage

The model is sophisticated (bottom-up approach) and extremely data-hungry if we want accuracy in the results

Statistics on vehicle stock and lifetime parameters not updated (1995, TRENDS project ESTAT/TREN).

Better info at national level, but time consuming. Consistency with fuel consumption:

Split urban/non urban, speeds Fuel tourism and transit

Emissions: Copert IV still not implemented (in a few weeks…) Earlier introduction euro standards & retrofit not included

No established process for bilateral consultation No close co-operation so far with other energy/climate/air models


Transport demand:Transport demand:baseyear 2000 calibrationbaseyear 2000 calibration

Billions passenger.km cars

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

TREMOVE

PRIMES

TIF 2005

TIF 2004

UBA submitted to IIASA/TML

Billions tonne.km HDT (truck >3.5tonnes)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

TREMOVE = TIF = UBA PRIMES

ktoe/tkm

-10.010.030.050.070.090.0

110.0130.0150.0

German

y

Franc

e

United

King

dom

Austri

a

Belgium

Denm

ark

Spain

Finlan

d

Greec

e

Irela

nd Italy

Luxe

mbu

rg

Nethe

rland

s

Portug

al

SwedenEU15

TREMOVE

PRIMES

ktoe/pkm

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0

German

y

Franc

e

United

King

dom

Austri

a

Belgium

Denm

ark

Spain

Finlan

d

Greec

e

Irelan

dIta

ly

Luxe

mbu

rg

Nethe

rland

s

Portug

al

SwedenEU15

TREMOVE

PRIMES

Examples for GermanyExamples for Germany Consistency across countriesConsistency across countries


Objectives 2006-2007Objectives 2006-2007

Short-term: Focus on vehicle stock data 1-year project to be launched in Dec 06 Use the database, TREMOVE and COPERT 4 to improve and ensure

consistency of transport emission calculations (EMEP/CORINAIR) Work in cluster with transport and energy models

TREMOVE (DG ENV / TML / LAT / IPTS) TRANS-TOOLS (DG TREN / IPTS) PRIMES (NTUA) – Transport module POLES (IPTS): currently some transport modules (e.g. Air)

Model maintenance and further improvement under a stable context JRC (IPTS+IES) EC4MACS LIFE consortium

Transform the former « Tremove Contact Group » into an expert group on transport modelling

EC / UNECE / EEA / Member States / Other models & research projects Exchange of information and common understanding on transport demand

projections, vehicle stock, emission factors, costs, etc.


MilestonesMilestones

By March 2007 (TML)By March 2007 (TML) Flexibility to introduce National or alternative baselines More friendly user interface

Later in 2007 (JRC-IPTS)Later in 2007 (JRC-IPTS) Revised source code and user interface, better coupling with COPERT.

TREMOVE then converted into a practical tool that can be used by MS TREMOVE then converted into a practical tool that can be used by MS for their transport stock and emissions projections.for their transport stock and emissions projections.

To be discussed at next TREMOVE contact group meetings (Dec 2006, Feb 2007)

Consistency across EU. Enable detailed modelling of the impact of regulations and economic

instruments on modal shift, vehicles and fuels sales. Specific request: TREMOVE currently enlarged to 10 additional Specific request: TREMOVE currently enlarged to 10 additional

countries:countries: Remaining EU-25 (Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovakia),

Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Turkey, by Jan 2007. Need to contrast the available information on transport demand, vehicle

stock, etc. with the detailed assumptions used for emissions inventories and projection

European Commission - DG Environment

Jacques DelsalleJacques DelsalleUnit C5 – Energy and EnvironmentUnit C5 – Energy and Environment

Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

Documents

TREMOVE: from policy simulations to support for emissions projections