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Trends in the Global Offshore Industry Marine Money China Ship Finance Conference 10 th May 2017 Piers Middleton Managing Director H. Clarkson & Company Limited

Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

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Page 1: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Trends in the Global Offshore Industry Marine Money China Ship Finance Conference 10th May 2017

Piers Middleton Managing Director H. Clarkson & Company Limited

Page 2: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Agenda

2

Introduction

The global rig market

Subsea

OSV & North Sea perspectives

Page 3: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

3

The oil services market has bottomed

Source: Schlumberger; Bloomberg; Clarksons Platou Offshore

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15 Q3 15 Q4 15 Q1 16 Q2 16 Q3 16 Q4 16

Schlumberger, Quarterly revenues, USDm «All markets have now reached the bottom, including Sub-Saharan

Africa and Asia”

Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard, 20 Jan-2017

Page 4: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Source: IEA; International Oil Daily; Bloomberg; Schlumberger; Clarksons Platou Offshore

4

What’s the shape of the recovery?

V V-shaped?

U U-shaped?

L L-shaped?

Bathtub-shaped?

“We look at 2017 as the starting point of a new multiyear cycle, where the main challenge is actually going to be to reverse the effect of

several years of global E&P underinvestment and then try to mitigate the pending supply

shortage that we see unfolding”

Schlumberger CEO Paal Kibsgaard, 20 Jan-2017

“We need USD 700bn of upstream investment each year” (compared to 2016 USD ~430bn,

IEA estimate)

IEA Executive Director Faith Birol, 30 Jan-2017

Page 5: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

The oil market is rebalancing

5

Global oil demand and supply

Source: IEA; Clarksons Platou Offshore

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

Q112 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17

Mbd

Mbd

Demand Supply

Expect tightening market in H1/17. H2/17 depends on Opec compliance, Russia and shale response

*) Est. with Opec at 32.8 mbd

Page 6: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Global oil demand is robust. Increasingly non-OECD driven

6

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016; The World Bank; Clarksons Platou Offshore

Average demand growth 1965-present: 1.3 mbl/d p.a. The IEA recently revised 2015 and 2016 demand growth numbers to +2 mbl/d and +1.6 mbl/d respectively and now estimates average annual demand growth to 2022 of +1.2 mbl/d (+ 1.5 mbl/d for 2017)

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

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80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Glo

bal G

DP (U

SD tr

n.)

Oil

dem

and

(mbl

/d)

Non-OECD oil demandOECD oil demandWorld GDP

1965: 31 mbl/d

3x

2015: 95 mbl/d

Page 7: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Conventional crude oil resources receiving approval worldwide

Source: IEA analysis based on Rystad Energy (from IEA WEO 2016 report, Nov-16); Clarksons Platou Offshore

This is not sustainable and everything points to a strong recovery, though timing remains uncertain

7

Sanctioning activity over the last couple of years: Dismal, and not enough to meet future demand growth and compensate for depletion

At 96 mbl/d, the world consumes 35

bn. barrels p.a.

Page 8: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

270

150

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2014 2016

NO

K bn

Development cost, selected NCS projects

Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of their 2P reserves

8

Relative cost compression vs. onshore also likely to have an impact forward

Offshore is ~27% of global oil supply

- 44%

Offshore is still vital for majors Offshore costs down substantially

58 % 53 % 48 %59 %

46 %

68 %

90 % 84 %

60 %

42 % 47 % 52 %41 %

54 %

32 %

10 % 16 %

40 %

0 %10 %20 %30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %80 %90 %

100 %

Shel

l

XOM

Chev

ron

Tota

l

BP ENI

Petr

obra

s

Stat

oil

Wei

ghte

d av

g.

2016 production shares

Offshore Onshore

Note 1: Oil production illustrated here represents crude oil and NGL production only. Refinery gains and other liquids (biofuels) excluded (hence, data deviate somewhat from e.g. IEA numbers) Note 2: NPD’s analysis is based on estimates from the operating companies for the following projects: Utgard, Oda, Zidane, Trestakk, Snilehorn, Johan Castberg, Snorre Expansion and Johan Sverdrup ph-2 Source: Clarksons Research Services (CRS); NPD (the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate), based on the operating companies’ own estimates; TechnipFMC; (WoodMack) Clarksons Platou Offshore

Offshore likely to increase relative competitiveness out of the trough as cost structure continues to compress relative to shale (Up to 50% of offshore costs are facilities/engineering, while well services dominate shale costs)

Page 9: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Global rig demand has been at record-low levels through 2015/16

9

JU-fixing at clear all-time low in our time series Floaters: 2016 proves to be another miserable year

Note: Other fixtures relate to Petrobras’ domestic newbuilds / SETE program (2011 & 2012) and NADL/Rosneft (2014) Source: Clarksons Platou Offshore

About 40 rig years fixed for JU’’s globally first two months of 2017 240 rig years at “run-rate”. Not enough, but at least another indication market conditions are about to improve somewhat

Page 10: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Number of working rigs coming down hard across the world

10

Floaters – Currently down to 135 contracted units, further decline is likely

• Latest actual demand in terms of floaters on contract (Dec-16) was 135 units

Source: Clarksons Platou Offshore

Jackups – Number of active working rigs keeps coming down faster than we had estimated

• Latest actual demand (Dec-16), measured by units on contract, was 290 units. This has flattened lately. Summer-16 saw 300 JU’s on contract on average

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

e

2017

e

2018

e

Floater demand: Actual and forecasted

Demand - actual and base case Forecasted fixing activity model

Rig spend model (volume effects) Backlog (no new fixtures)

0

50

100

150

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250

300

350

400

450

500

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

e

2017

e

2018

e

Jackup demand: Actual and forecasted

Demand - actual and base case Rig spend model

Top down model (strip oil price) Bottom up model

Backlog (no new fixtures)

Currently 100-110 likely actually working

290 on contract as of Dec-16

Active fleet utilization is hovering around 70% for both the global floater and jackup fleet. Rates are largely around rig opex-levels, naturally with various nuances

Page 11: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Floater market: We need to go back to 2004 to see corresponding low floater demand (as measured by number of floaters on contract)

11

Source: IHS Petrodata; Clarksons Platou Offshore

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Floaters on contract, monthly since 1986

Page 12: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Updated September 2016. Source: IHS Petrodata; Clarksons Platou Sec.

12

Floaters: Dropping everywhere. Several regions likely to drop further during 2017 before leveling out and gradually increase again

35 3328

3641

48 47

3530

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

US Gulf Of Mexico

4

3 3

4

5

65

4

3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mexico

50

61

74

8478

67

55

3934

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

South America

37 36 38

44 46 4541

3227

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NW Europe

2926

31 3237

43

34

2218

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

West Africa

1112 12

1416

15

9

6 7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Indian Ocean

11

1517

15

13

16

119

7

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SE Asia

11 1110 10 10

11

9

4 4

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Australia/New Zealand

Page 13: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Jackups: 290 units on contract, same level as last trough in 2009 (293). Prior to that, need to go to 2002/03 to see corresponding low number

13

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10 1 4 7 10

86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: IHS Petrodata; Clarksons Platou Offshore

Jackups on contract, monthly since 1986

Page 14: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

15

1921

23 24

20

17

10

6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

US Gulf Of Mexico

32

25 2632

42

52

44

29 26

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mexico

1110 10

8 89

7

54

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

South America

30 3236

41 4247 46

36

28

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NW Europe

15

1921

23 24

20

17

10

6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

West Africa

84 89 94105

120129 130

123112

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Middle East

3330 31 29

32 32 3236

40

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Indian Ocean

37 40

49

57

65 66

50

30 27

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

SE Asia

4

11

2 2

1

21 1

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Australia/New Zealand

Updated September 2016. Source: IHS Petrodata; Clarksons Platou Sec.

14

Jack-up overview: Middle East & Indian Ocean stable/increasing. W.Afr set to increase? Mexico and SE Asia stabilizing, set to increase forward?

Page 15: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Source: IHS Petrodata; Clarksons Platou Offshore

15

Jackup rigcount (rigs on contract) has started flattening

Jackups – Number of active working rigs (on contract), monthly since 2012 – flattening out last 3-5 months

200

250

300

350

400

450

1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11 1 3 5 7 9 11

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Jackups on contract, monthly

Comments

• More than 50% of the contracted JU’s are in the Middle East and Indian Ocean – regions that have seen stable/increasing demand and continue to do so

• Several other regions have seen JU-count drop ~50% from peak. Further drop unlikely

• Majority of JU-drilling is development and re-development/intervention = stable

• Also, quite a bit of the JU’s are used for gas fields = usually more stable than oil

• Oil price +50% since trough will lead oil companies to increase short lead-time investments again = use more JUs

• We are seeing positive market indications (RFIs etc.)

Page 16: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Subsea displays signals of bottoming out. Backlogs will start to build again as oil companies increase sanctioning activity, likely late-17

16

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Q1/

07

Q3/

07

Q1/

08

Q3/

08

Q1/

09

Q3/

09

Q1/

10

Q3/

10

Q1/

11

Q3/

11

Q1/

12

Q3/

12

Q1/

13

Q3/

13

Q1/

14

Q3/

14

Q1/

15

Q3/

15

Q1/

16

Q3/

16

Cameron (OneSubsea) subsea backlog (USDm)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Q1/

07

Q3/

07

Q1/

08

Q3/

08

Q1/

09

Q3/

09

Q1/

10

Q3/

10

Q1/

11

Q3/

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Q1/

12

Q3/

12

Q1/

13

Q3/

13

Q1/

14

Q3/

14

Q1/

15

Q3/

15

Q1/

16

Q3/

16

Subsea EPC (SUBC + TEC Subsea + SPM E&C Offshore) backlog, USDbn

Leading Subsea equipment manufacturer backlog stabilizing last 3-4 quarters…

…and the same is visible in the combined backlog for the world’s three leading Subsea contractors

Source: Subsea 7; Technip; Saipem; FMC Technologies; Interntional Oil Daily; Clarksons Platou Offshore

Global Subsea fleet utilization is currently below 50% and subsea vessel operators are experiencing significant pressure

Page 17: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Subsea construction outlook: Tree awards estimated to bottom out in 2016, pipe installations in 2018. Strong installation/construction rebound 2019+

17

Quest X-mas tree awards outlook scenarios: Tree awards estimated to bottom out in 2016

Subsea pipeline installations to remain low 2016-18 with 2018 being the trough year

• Strong recovery in 2018+ naturally dependent on continued oil price recovery

• FPU awards display same picture as equipment awards ―Three awards in 2015, zero in 2016. YTD-17, we have seen two firm awards, full-year likely to end at 5-6 ―FPU construction/conversion takes 2-3Y installation offshore in 2019/20

Source: Quest Offshore; Clarksons Platou Offshore

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018e 2019e 2020e 2021e

Global - pipeline demand (km)

0-14 Rigid Steel 15-19 Rigid Steel 20-24 Rigid Steel 25+ Rigid Steel Flexible

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

# of

Sub

sea

Tree

s

Award Year

Tree Orders (High) Tree Orders (Mean) Tree Orders (Base)

Page 18: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

30%+ of the global OSV fleet is now stacked…

18

Global lay-ups, current status according to our data Stacking development globally, AHTS and PSVs

Source: Clarksons Research Services; Clarksons Platou Offshore

Total ~1650 vessels, in excess of 30% of the fleet

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2008

-Jan

2008

-Jul

2009

-Jan

2009

-Jul

2010

-Jan

2010

-Jul

2011

-Jan

2011

-Jul

2012

-Jan

2012

-Jul

2013

-Jan

2013

-Jul

2014

-Jan

2014

-Jul

2015

-Jan

2015

-Jul

2016

-Jan

2016

-Jul

2017

-Jan

PSV

AHTS

Page 19: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Proper data capture is challenging in the OSV-segment, but nevertheless, other sources seem roughly in line with our data

19

Graphs and data from recent IHS Petrodata presentation

Total 1500+ vessels…

…corresponding to ~40% of the fleet

Source: IHS Petrodata; Clarksons Platou Offshore

Page 20: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Global OSV utilisation overview

AHTS PSV

20

Source: IHS Petrodata; Clarksons Platou Offshore

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan

2011

Jun

2011

Nov

201

1

Apr 2

012

Sep

2012

Feb

2013

Jul 2

013

Dec

2013

May

201

4

Oct

201

4

Mar

201

5

Aug

2015

Jan

2016

Jun

2016

Nov

201

6

AHTS 10-000+ BHP

Working Term Spot Market

Not Working Out of Market Work

Term Utilisation

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Jan

2011

Jun

2011

Nov

201

1

Apr 2

012

Sep

2012

Feb

2013

Jul 2

013

Dec

2013

May

201

4

Oct

201

4

Mar

201

5

Aug

2015

Jan

2016

Jun

2016

Nov

201

6

PSV 2000+ DWT

Working Term Spot Market

Not Working Out of Market Work

Term Utilisation

Page 21: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

OSV term rates are at or close to opex levels. Likely to remain low as long as overcapacity persists

Source: Clarksons Platou Offshore

0

10

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30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USD

'000

USD

'000

North Sea PSV average term rates

500-749 m2 2,200 - 3,099 dwt 750-899 m23,100+ dwt 900+ m2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USD

'000

USD

'000

Brazil PSV average term rates

500-750 m2 900+ m2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USD

'000

USD

'000

West Africa PSV average term rates

500-749m2 900+ m2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USD

'000

USD

'000

US Gulf PSV average term rates

500-749 m2 750-899 m2 900+ m2

Page 22: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Source: Clarksons Platou Offshore

22

AHTS term rates are at or close to opex levels. Likely to remain low as long as overcapacity persists

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USD

'000

USD

'000

North Sea AHTS average term rates

10-15,999 BHP 16-19,999 BHP 20,000+ BHP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USD

'000

USD

'000

West Africa AHTS term rates

5,000 BHP 10,000 BHP 12,000 BHP 16,000 BHP

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USD

'000

USD

'000

Brazil AHTS average term rates

7,000 BHP 12,000 BHP 15,000 BHP 18,000 BHP 21,000 BHP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

USD

'000

USD

'000

South-East Asia AHTS average term rates

5,000 BHP 7,000 BHP 8,000 BHP 10,000 BHP 12,000 BHP

Page 23: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

North Sea spot rates are bottoming out

AHTS PSV

23

Source: Clarksons Platou Offshore

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GBP '000

10-15,999 BHP 16-19,999 BHP 20,000+ BHP

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

12.5

15

17.5

20

22.5

25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

GBP '000

500-899 m2 900+ m2

Page 24: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Time to consolidate…

24

1999: Worldwide, PSVs > 2,000 DWT (top) and AHTS > 10,000 BHP

Source: Farstad Shipping – Presentation at Pareto conference Sept-99 and Q2/16-presentation; Clarksons Platou Offshore

2016: PSVs > 2,000 DWT and AHTS > 10,000 BHP

Page 25: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Rebalancing? Provided significant vessel attrition, the OSV market could be back in reasonable balance in 2020 (modeled scenario from CP Securities)

25

87 % 88 % 88 % 90 % 91 % 92 % 94 % 94 %91 %

86 % 86 % 88 % 88 %86 %

77 %

66 % 65 %

71 %

80 %

85 %

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E

OSV

flee

t util

izatio

n

# of

ves

sels

OSV supply, demand and fleet utilization - 2001 to 2020E

Production support demand Rig demand Total supply Adjusted supply Adjusted utilization

Source: Clarksons Platou Offshore

Note that there are multiple moving parts and numerous assumptions made to attempt to analyze the market-balance in the OSV market. Estimates and timing thus remain highly uncertain

Page 26: Trends in the Global Offshore Industry · Development cost, selected NCS projects . Offshore is still relevant: ~27% of global oil supply, ~60% of Major’s production and ~55% of

Some other interesting aspects starting to play out in the OSV space, constituting big question marks…

26

Charterer: “We are not going to take stacked boats”

Owner: “We are not going to take boats out of lay up unless at least 6 months charter and compensated”

Everyone: “What’s going to happen to all these stacked boats? How fast will they deteriorate?”

Broker: “How many of these large stacked PSVs have their 5Y SPS coming up during next 1-2 years?”

“What is the viability of the traditional owners’ operating model in a world where Standard/Fletcher Shipping type of companies increasingly operate vessels?”

? Everyone: “How large percentage of the order book will eventually hit the market?”

Charterer: “I’m not willing to look at anything which is less than 3Y at opex”

Charterer: “At the current pace, all these established owners are going out of business, and that’s bad for me! I rely on these companies”

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• The oil services market has bottomed out

• There is a future for Offshore

• Shape and pace of the recovery still uncertain

• Activity is starting to pick up (seismic late-sales, jackup tendering ++)

• All asset-heavy segments (Rig, OSV, Subsea) hampered by significant overcapacity ― Utilization and dayrates will take long to recover ― Substantial attrition needed. If carried out, segments can be rebalanced by 2020 ― We will still see a lot of restructuring, refinancing and consolidation

• Now and the coming 12-24 months likely good time to act on asset transactions for

those aiming to build a solid longer term position

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Summary and conclusions

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