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TRENDS SHAPING EDUCATION 2019
http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/trends-shaping-education.htm
2
Trends Shaping Education 2019
Stimulate reflection about the
future of education
Determine robust data on
trends
Intention and purpose
Inform strategic thinking
Policy makers• Ministry retreats,
strategic thinking
workshops
Researchers/teacher
educators
• Inclusion in teacher
education curriculums,
education futures
Students
• Tool in classrooms,
strategic thinking for
associations
Educational practitioners
• Futures thinking, global
mega-trends
3
Trends Shaping Education
Spotlights Workshops
Tailor-made for countries
• Contact the Trends team to develop a
workshop
Upcoming spotlights
• Financial education in a digital
world
• Play
Most recent
• Writing in a changing world
• EdTech
Structure
• 1 to 1 ½ days
• 20 to 30 educational leaders and policy
makers
Outcomes
• Strengthening futures thinking capacity
• Identifying challenges and opportunities
for medium-long term
High usability
• Concise information
• Practical examples of policies
from other countries
4
Trends Shaping Education 2019
1
Shifting global
gravityModern culturesPublic matters Security
Living longer,
living better
5432
Five thematic chapters:
“Systems” “Individuals”
GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEINGMODERN
CULTURES
Chapter 1
Global mobility
Research & Development
Global markets
Sustainable consumption
Wealth & Inequality
Growing middle class
Shifting global wealth
Air transport
R&Dspending
E-waste
Artificial Intelligence
Migration
Global value chains
The rise of the global middle class
0
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9
20
05
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17
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29
He
ad
co
un
t (b
illi
on
s)
% o
f w
or
ld p
op
ula
tio
n
World middle class share of world population World middle class World population
Within the next decade the majority of the world population will consist of the middle class
Estimates of the size of the global middle class, percentage of the world population (left axis) and headcount
(right axis), 1950-2030
Source: Kharas, H. (2017), The unprecedented expansion of the global middle class, an update,
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/global_20170228_global-middle-class.pdf. Kharas, H.
(2010), The emerging middle class in developing countries, https://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf. Figure 1.2
More people on the move
-30
20
70
120
170
220
270
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017
Mil
lio
ns
of
pe
op
le
Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Northern America Oceania
Estimates of international migrant stock by region of destination, 1990-2017
Source: United Nations (2017), "International migrant stock: The 2017 revision" (database),
www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/data/. Figure 1.5
Chapter 2
GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEINGMODERN
CULTURES
Civic participation
Inequality
Group rights
Rurality
Multiculturalism
Income gap
Online news
Sovereignty referendums
Employment
City networks
Tax havensDemographics
Sovereignty
Declining voter turnout
Change in average voting rates per decade in OECD countries, 1990s and 2010s
Source: International IDEA (2018), International Voter Turnout Database, www.idea.int.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Au
stra
lia
Lu
xe
mb
ou
rg
Be
lgiu
m
Den
ma
rk
Sw
eden
Tu
rkey
Ice
lan
d
No
rwa
y
Au
stri
a
Net
her
lan
ds
New
Zea
lan
d
Ita
ly
Ger
ma
ny
Sp
ain
Isra
el
OE
CD
av
era
ge
Irel
an
d
Fin
lan
d
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Hu
ng
ary
Ca
na
da
Est
on
ia
Gre
ece
La
tvia
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Slo
va
k R
epu
bli
c
Slo
ve
nia
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ko
rea
Ja
pa
n
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Mex
ico
Lit
hu
an
ia
Po
lan
d
Fra
nce
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Ch
ile
% o
f v
oti
ng
tu
rn
ou
t
1990s 2010s
Figure 2.3
Increasing online information
Individuals using the Internet (last 3 months) for reading/downloading the news online, 2005 and 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% o
f In
ter
ne
t u
se
rs
2005 2017
Figure 2.4
Source: OECD (2018), ICT Access and Usage by Households and Individuals (database). https://stats.oecd.org/.
Chapter 3
GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEINGMODERN
CULTURES
Nuclear testing
Household debt and savings
CyberEconomic
National Environmental
Health
Antibiotic resistance
Road safety
Security experts
Natural disasters
Job security
War and conflict
Growing cyber risk
World’s biggest data breaches by method of leak (billions of records lost), 2004-2018
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
4,5
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Re
co
rd
s l
os
t (b
illi
on
s)
accidentally published hacked inside job lost / stolen device or media poor security
Figure 3.3
Source: Information is Beautiful (2018), “World’s biggest data breaches: Selected loses bigger than 30.000
records”, https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/worlds-biggest-data-breaches-static/.
Natural disasters increasing worldwide
Number of recorded events, 1900-2018
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
190
0
190
5
1910
1915
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0
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5
20
00
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20
15
Nu
mb
er
of
ev
en
ts
Figure 3.7
Source: EM-DAT (2018), The Emergency Events Database - Université catholique de Louvain (UCL) - CRED,
www.emdat.be.
Chapter 4
GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEINGMODERN
CULTURES
Dementia
Pensions “Elderhood”Work
Ageing:New challengesSilver economy
Healthy ageing
Medical advancements
Active retirees
Civic engagement
Purchasing power
Retraining / reskilling
Digital fraud
Years in retirement increasing
Average across all OECD countries, 1970-2016
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1970 1985 2000 2015
15 years on average in 1970
22 years on average in 2016
Women
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1970 1985 2000 2015
11 years on average in 1970
18 years on average in 2016
Men
Time in retirement Retirement age
Source: OECD (2017), Pensions at a Glance 2017: OECD and G20 Indicators,
https://doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2017-en.
Dementia rates growing
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45M
exic
o
Tu
rkey
Slo
va
k R
epu
bli
c
Ko
rea
Po
lan
d
Cze
ch R
epu
bli
c
Isra
el
Hu
ng
ary
Irel
an
d
Un
ited
Sta
tes
Ch
ile
Slo
ven
ia
Icel
an
d
Ca
na
da
Lu
xem
bo
urg
New
Zea
lan
d
Au
stra
lia
La
tvia
Lit
hu
an
ia
Est
on
ia
OE
CD
av
era
ge
No
rwa
y
Net
her
lan
ds
Den
ma
rk
Un
ited
Kin
gd
om
Sw
itze
rla
nd
Bel
giu
m
Au
stri
a
Sw
eden
Fin
lan
d
Sp
ain
Gre
ece
Fra
nce
Po
rtu
ga
l
Ger
ma
ny
Ita
ly
Ja
pa
n
So
uth
Afr
ica
Ind
on
esia
Ind
ia
Ch
ina
Bra
zil
Russian…
Nu
mb
er
of
pe
op
le 2017 2037
People with dementia per 1 000 population (all ages), 2017 and estimates for 2037
Source: OECD (2018), Care Needed: Improving the Lives of People with Dementia,
https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264085107-en
Increasingly digital
Different Internet uses by age group (last 3 months), OECD average, 2008, 2013 and 2017
Figure 4.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017 2008 2013 2017
...daily or almost every day ...for finding informationabout goods and services
...for seeking healthinformation
...for Internet banking
% o
f in
div
idu
als
us
ing
th
e I
nte
rn
et.
..
Younger adults (16-24) Adults (16-74) Older adults (55-74)
Source: OECD (2018), ICT Access and Usage by Households and Individuals (database), https://stats.oecd.org/.
Chapter 5
New family structures
Meat production
Gender in work
Ethical consumption
Modern familiesVirtual
becoming reality
The connected economy
Gig economy
Gender equity
Labour forceparticipation
Shareconomy
Electricvehicles
Youth empowerment
GLOBALISATION DEMOCRACY SECURITY AGEINGMODERN
CULTURES
Freeing up work?
Combined registered users of Upwork and Freelancer
Sources: OECD (2017), OECD Employment Outlook 2017, https://doi.org/10.1787/empl_outlook-2017-en.
Figure 5.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Mil
lio
n u
se
rs
Fathers becoming more involved
Number of OECD countries granting paid paternity leave, 1975-2016
Source: OECD (2018),”Length of paid father-specific leave (indicator)”, OECD Gender Data Portal,
http://www.oecd.org/gender/data/. Figure 5.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Nu
mb
er
of
co
un
trie
s
Thank you!
For more information:
www.oecd.org/education/ceri/trends-shaping-education
