ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 1

Thierry DUJARDINDeputy Director, Science and Development

OECD Nuclear Energy Agency

Trends towards Sustainability in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

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Global Nuclear Energy Policy

GLOBAL 2011 December 11-16, 2011Makuhari Messe, Chiba, Japan

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Scope and objectivesApproach

THE STUDY

Technical progress (past and coming decade and the longer term)National and international progressPolicies

FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS

TRENDS

Outline

Forthcoming publication (expected by the end of the year)

STATUS

Note: assessments largely developed prior to Fukushima

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Investigate developments in the NFC

Update the 2002 publication:

Scope and Objectives

Over the past decadeIn the next ten yearsIn the longer term

Analyse the sustainability elements of NFCsEconomic (cost, optimise use of resources)Social (enhance safety, proliferation resistance)Environment (reduce impacts)

“Trends in the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Economic, Environmental and Social Aspects”

Focus on policy and strategies Review experience and perspectives in policy making

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Emphasis on sustainabilitySustainability criteria

EnvironmentResource UtilizationWaste ManagementInfrastructureProliferation Resistance and Physical ProtectionSafetyEconomics

Approach

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Mining & milling Increase of uranium demand and resource baseIncrease in mining and milling costs, uranium prices & price volatilityChange around 2003/04 (new reactors on line, improved capacity factors & up-rating of existing NPPs, stocks almost used up)Price reduction post FukushimaResources expected to be sufficient for ~100 years of supply (at 2008 reactor requirement levels) provided timely achievement of existing and committed plans of capacity expansion Challenges due to more difficult approval processes & increasing public resistance to miningGreater use of in-situ leaching (ISL)Consolidation of best practices New entrants

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Price reduction post FukushimaResources expected to be sufficient for ~100 years of supply (at 2008 reactor requirement levels) provided timely achievement of existing and committed plans of capacity expansion Challenges due to more difficult approval processes & increasing public resistance to miningGreater use of in-situ leaching (ISL)Consolidation of best practices New entrants

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

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80 000

tU

YearWorld Requirements World Production

Trends in the past decade and near future Front end

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Optimisation of designs & improvements of behaviourIncreased burnup and initial enrichmentsWider use of MOX and REPU fuel utilisation - but someuncertainties in the future use post FukushimaPossible bottle neck: zirconium fabrication in case of strong nuclear development

Trends in the past decade and near futureFront end

Enrichment

Fuel design &

fabrication

Centrifuge displacing diffusion enrichment (20% in 2001 40% in 2010)Reduced enrichment tails assaysEnlargement of enrichment capacityDevelopment of laser enrichment still continuing, approaching pre-industrial readiness

Conversion Higher conversion prices 4 big players account for 90% of nominal capacityReplacement, modernisation and expansion of capacity

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Longer fuel cyclesIncreasing output: higher load factors & upratingsLoad following Lifetime extension

Reactor operations

Trends in the past decade and near futureReactor & Back end

Spent fuel & waste

management

Progress with deep geological repositories for the disposal of SF and HLW Reversibility / retrievability Interim storage of SF and HLW – greater adoption of dry storage capacity & centralised facilities

Reprocessing Technological progress favouring efficiency, flexibility & reduction of dischargesGrowing reprocessing capacities

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Gen IV reactorsFuel design & fabrication R&DPartitioning & transmutationADSThorium Fuel CycleUnconventional uranium resources

Advanced systems and fuel cycles

In the longer term

Small & Medium ReactorsHigh conversion thermal reactorsNon-electric use of nuclear

Innovative nuclear energy applications & concepts

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Discussion mainly focused on historical challenges

Trends in countries and global effortPolicy considerations (1)

Disposal of spent fuel and high level waste Reprocessing of spent fuel Non-proliferation and safeguards Safety

Principal policy drivers Security of supply / heavy reliance on energy importsEnvironmental concerns

Little emphasis of policies squarely on sustainability

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Dichotomous approach maintainedSome increase of recycling (sizeable in France)

Disposal of spent fuel and high level waste Geological repository – favoured option Legal and institutional frameworksGreater public consultationEstablishment of agencies for radwaste managementProgress with site identification, i.e. in Finland & Sweden, but high profile setback with Yucca MountainRegional and transnational approachesCouncil Directive 2011/70/EURATOM & Joint Convention

Reprocessing of spent fuel

Trends in countries and global effortPolicy considerations (2)

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Still overarching priorityFukushima Dai-ichi events - strengthen safety standards and international cooperation, focus on accident response, influence on policy decisions ?Council Directive 2009/71/EURATOMHarmonisation: MDEP, ENSREGIndependence of regulatory authorities

Safety

Broaden focus to complete fuel-cycle and infrastructure assessments and comprehensive State-level approachAttention to vulnerabilities of societal infrastructureIncreased attention to non-traditional targets, e.g. cyber-attacks& information theft

Non-proliferation and safeguards

Trends in countries and global effortPolicy considerations (3)

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New build & prospects of growth (could slow-down post Fukushima)Prevalence of OFC, with some partial recycling for existing fleet and NPPs under construction U demand from non-OECD countries expected to impact OECD countriesIncreased U prices & price volatility, butNo short-term constraints from shortage of resourcesYet – need for investments and timeliness of mining projects

Findings (1)

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Little incentive to close the fuel cycle(from a resource utilisation perspective) Overall only incremental progress towards sustainability

Step changes not market-driven government action required

Step changes in sustainability linked to deployment of Advanced FCsIncreased weight of global strategies (GENIV, INPRO & IFNEC) & international approaches (e.g. fuel banks or regional repositories)

Findings (2)

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To support nuclear development governments would need to:

Waste management - Progress towards implementation of deep geological repositories must remain a high priority

ensure efficiency in necessary approval processesensure long term security of supply (from conventional & unconventional sources) consider coupling energy policies with supporting fiscal policies(& market incentives) to ease risk management, particularly for the implementation of new technologies with long lead timeswork with mining industry to ensure that best practices are applied

further R&D to optimise geological disposal solutions and to address issues related to prolonged interim storage of spent fuel challenges such as licensing, public acceptance, knowledge retention must be addressed

Recommendations (1)

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Advanced reactors and closed fuel cycle

Integrated approach to the analysis of the economy ofthe fuel cycle (from mining to waste management) needs to be further developedWork towards universally agreed indicators to assess sustainability of NFC must continue

Governments need to ensure adequate regulatory frameworks & resources to enable transition to fast neutron systemsOn-going R&D and international cooperation in advanced FC should be further promoted

Recommendations (2)

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Global Nuclear Energy Policy

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Nuclear Energy Policy – Key DriversGlobal energy demand

Population growthEconomic growth, especially in developing countries

Increasing prices of fossil fuelsIncreasing volatility of pricesSecurity of energy supply (& diversity)Nuclear energy – domestic source

Climate changeNeed to “decarbonise” electricity production

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None of these drivers was modified due to the Fukushima Daiichi

accident

However, the public opinion has been very much impacted by the accident

Although there is no certainty, the accident will likely slow the development

of nuclear power in the medium term

ThD / December 13, 2011 GLOBAL 2011 2020

Challenges Ahead - BeforeFinancing capital-intensive nuclear units

Reducing business risksEnhancing economic and safetyperformance simultaneouslyImplementing HLW repositories

Social acceptanceStrengthening involvement of civil societyon nuclear energy issuesDeveloping innovative reactors and fuel cyclesPenetrating new markets (hydrogen, heat,potable water) Securing qualified human resources

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Challenges Ahead - AfterThe same ones

+The lessons from Fukushima need to be integrated in the design and the sitting of new plantsAdequate measures should be taken from the result of the safety reviews on existing reactorsRestoring public confidence

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Concluding Remarks (1)Current world energy model not sustainableIt prepares a “dirty, unsecure and expensive” future

There is no “silver bullet”It is essential to keep all low-carbon energy options open and to avoid idolising or demonising any technologyNuclear energy is part of the solution (triple win)

Reduction of CO2 emissionsIncreased security of energy supplyEconomics benefits

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Concluding Remarks (2)But

All lessons from Fukushima need to be drawnExisting reactorsFuture reactors

Transparency and increased international cooperation essential

Identifying and implementing best practicesRestoring public confidence likely the mostdifficult challenge

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Thank you for your attention