TSS Project Update and Demo of Selected Tools

WRAP IWG Meeting

Santa Fe, NMDecember 7, 2006

Outline

• WRAP Technical Information Centers• TSS Overview• Status of TSS functionality• Future TSS work• TSS training

• Demo of selected TSS tools

WRAP Technical Information CentersVisibility Information Exchange Web System (VIEWS): VIEWS provides on-line access to monitoring data, research results and special studies related to visibility. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/

Regional Modeling Center: The WRAP’s Regional Modeling Center at the University of California Riverside provides state and tribal agencies with sophisticated modeling of regional haze in the Western United States. http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/

Emissions Data Management System: An emission inventory data warehouse for states and tribes. The system provides a consistent, complete and regional approach to emissions data management and tracking. http://www.wrapedms.org/

Causes of Haze Assessment: A detailed analysis of ambient monitoring data for regional haze in the WRAP region. http://www.coha.dri.edu/

The Technical Support System integrates a number of different information resources under one web-based umbrella. http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss

WRAP Data Centers Support the TSS

Data CentersPlanning/Decision Tool

& Summary Data

Haze monitoring data

Modeling analysis results

Emissions data

Monitoring analysis results

TSS Overview• TSS url: http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/tss/• TSS focus has been to prepare tools to support SIP

writers’ needs– Dynamic tools – interactive, based on data queries

• Graphs• Tables• Maps

– Static tools – analyses/products generated outside of the TSS, often placeholders for planned dynamic tools

• Recent work incorporates Tribal areas in tools• Where possible, data tables have been made available

for download so analysts can examine data and reformat graphics as required

Status of TSS Functionality

• Green – Substantially functional, results or information generally available

• Yellow – Functional, but somewhat incomplete at this time

• Red – Not substantially functional or complete

Home Page

Resources Page

WOE Checklist Page

Source Apportionment Page

Integrated Mapping and Analysis Tool

• On-going site evolution and tool development• TSS training anticipated:

– 2 WebEx style sessions (early 2007)– 1 classroom style session (spring 2007)

• TSS data updates:– Emissions updates (mid-2007)– Results from control strategy modeling (mid-2007)– IMPROVE data updates for 2005 and 2006

• TSS linkage with other web sites/data nodes:– Fire Emissions Tracking System (FETS)– Emissions Data Management System (EDMS)

Future TSS Work

• Early 2007 – set tentative dates today?• WebEx style – no travel required• 60-90 minutes• Use well-defined syllabus

– Session 1: Go through entire WOE Checklist?– Session 2: Explore source attribution tools?

• Will request that IWG participants do some homework prior to each session– Review of specific documents on the TSS– Review of tools included in the syllabus so that

participants will have some specific questions

TSS Training

Demo of Selected TSS Tools

Following slides contain notesto be covered in the demo

Red text = left hand navigation bar “clicks”

• Resources/Emissionshttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Emissions.aspx

• Summaries:– Downloadable Excel spreadsheets– Annual and seasonal– State and county– WRAP and entire RPO domain

Emissions Summaries

• Resources/Monitoring/Analysis Resultshttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/LinkBrowser/LinkBrowser.aspx?action=baseline

– Select “Model Response and Preliminary Glide Slope Calculations”

• Summaries:– Graphs– Model response (2018 – baseline results) for worst

days– Preliminary glide slope with predicted 2018 value

• Old IMPROVE Algorithm• Default natural conditions• Final numbers will change, but general results not expected to

differ significantly at most sites

2018 Proj./Glide Slope Calculation (1)

• Resources/Weight of Evidencehttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Tools/WOEChecklist.aspx

– Select a site under the “Start” tab– Select the “Class I Area” tab– Scroll down to “Reasonable Progress Goal”– Select 3rd bullet (species glide slopes)

• Summaries:– Graphs and data– Species glide slopes

• New IMPROVE Algorithm• New natural conditions• Does not yet display the 2018 projected values

2018 Proj./Glide Slope Calculation (2)

• Resources/Weight of Evidencehttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Tools/WOEChecklist.aspx

– Select the “Class I Area” tab– Scroll down to “Class I Area Summary Table”– Select 1st (only) bullet

• Summaries:– Not yet implemented – sample table next slide– Does sample table meet IWG needs?

Tabular Summary of WOE Results

Tabular Summary of WOE Results –SAMPLE*

Summary Table for Worst Visibility Days Strawberry Mountain and Eagle Cap Class I Areas, Oregon 2000-04

Baseline Conditions

(Mm-1)

2064 Natural

Conditions (Mm-1)

2018 URP

(Mm-1)

2018 Base Case

(Mm-1)

2018 Control Case

(Mm-1)

Change In Statewide

Emissions1 (tons / %)

Change In Upwind

Weighted Emissions1

(%)

Change In WRAP Antrho

Contribution1

(%)

Other Apportion-

ment Results

SO4 7.75 1.13 5.79 7.65 / PSAT PMF NO3 15.8 0.94 10.8 11.9 / PSAT PMF OC 24.1 1.88 16.2 23.0 / PMF EC 4.21 0.2 3.08 2.81 / PMF FS 1.27 0.5 1.08 2 2 / PMF CM 4.77 1.8 3.97 2 2 /

Not Applicable

PMF DV3 17.9 7.54 15.3 17.0 4 Not Applicable 1 Represents change between control case and 2000-04 baseline condition. 2 Visibility projections not available due to model performance issues. 3 Unitless value. 4 This becomes the reasonable progress goal for the worst visibility days.

*Courtesy of Lee Alter

• Resources/Emissions (emissions graphs) http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Results/Emissions.aspx

• Resources/Monitoring/Monitoring Data Browserhttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Tools/MonitoringData.aspx– Select the “Time Series” tab

• Tool selections include:– Mass or extinction– Old or new IMPROVE algorithm– Various time and averaging periods

Annual/Seasonal Pollutant Graphs

• Resources/Monitoring/Monitoring Data Browserhttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Tools/MonitoringData.aspx– Select the “Time Series” tab– Choose: “worst 20%”, “daily”, years 2000-2004– Copy/download data

• Same page; select “Source Apportionment” and then “Organic Aerosol Tracer” tabs– Results show contribution to organic carbon of:

• Anthropogenic secondary OC (man-made VOCs and fire)• Biogenic secondary OC (natural VOCs and fire)• Anthropogenic AND biogenic primary OC (fire; other)

– Full analysis would include knowing periods of wildfire impact

Exploration of a “Fire Signature”

• Short answer: NO• AQ model required to predict visibility from

changes in emissions• Data mining may help understanding of

emissions/extinction• Review PSAT and WEP results to identify

relative contributions from source regions

Tool For Emissions Rollback? (1)

• Resources/Area of Interesthttp://vista.cira.colostate.edu/TSS/Tools/Results.aspx– Select the “Source Apportionment”, then “SOx NOx Tracer” or

“Weighted Emissions Potential” tabs– “SOx NOx Tracer” provides PSAT concentration attribution results

• Select “2 – By Region” to identify most important source areas• Select “1 – Time Series” to determine seasonal impact of source

areas– “Weighted Emissions Potential” (WEP) provides a back trajectory

residence time and distance weighting to emissions sources• Select map graphic of emissions densities, residence times, or WEP

results• Select Excel file to see relative “contributions” by source types and

categories

Tool For Emissions Rollback? (2)

• Black Canyon is represented by the Weminuche (WEMI) IMPROVE site

• Review PSAT results for WEMI; identify relative contribution from Utah (how do they change in 2018?)

• Review seasonality of Utah impacts• (Currently there are no Weighted Emissions

Potential maps for this site)

How does Utah impact Black Canyonof the Gunnison, CO?

Nitrate PSAT Results

Sulfate PSAT Results

Nitrate/Sulfate Contribution from UT

• Zion is represented by the ZION IMPROVE site

• Review PSAT results for ZION; identify relative contribution from Nevada

• What are the dominant source categories?• Review seasonality of Nevada impacts• Review the Weighted Emissions Potential

(WEP) maps and spreadsheets for this site

How does Nevada impact Zion, UT?

Nitrate PSAT Results

Sulfate PSAT Results

Nitrate/Sulfate Contribution from NV

WEP – Emissions and Residence Time

Residence Time

NOx Emissions

WEP – NOx, SOx, PEC ResultsNOx Results SOx Results

PEC Results

NOx WEP “Contributions” for ZIONSources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence

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Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire