TSUNAMI READY PROGRAM ZONAS SISMICAS Victor A. Huérfano

MAPA DE INUNDACION Aurelio Mercado

Numerical ModelingNumerical Data Base

Saving lives and property depends on how well the community is prepared

Historical ObservationsInstrumental Data Base

Bathymetry/Topographic dataPopulation and Infrastructure

Hypothetical Tsunami Scenarios (Seismology/Previous work)

Computer Simulations

Initial Conditions(Mansinha and Smylie)

Propagation and run up (TIME project, Shuto)

Alert System Worst Case ScenarioVulnerability

Real Time MonitoringForecastingObservations

Messages(Protocols)

Tsunami Hazard Planning Education and Outreach

PR TWMP

ZONAS SISMICAS Y SISMICIDAD LOCAL

BACKGROUND

Puerto Rico

Dominican Rep.

HaitiJamaica

Cuba

Virgin Islands

Lesser Antilles

Trinidad

PLATE BOUNDARIES

Cocos Plate

Caribbean Plate

South America Plate

North America PlatePuerto Rico Trench

Muertos Trough

Anegada Passage

19ºN Fault Zone

Septentrional Fault MonaCanyon

17871670

1943

1867

1918

1946

186717 casualties

191840 (100) casualties

1946100 (1790) casualties

16922000 (???) casualties

1780300 (???) casualties

1842300 (???) casualties

1564

1770

Shepherd, et al, (1992)

1670 MM = VII, San Germán y San Juan1787 M @7-8,MM = VII-VIII, Costa Norte, Este y Oeste1867 M =7.3, MM = VIII, Islas Vírgenes, Tsunami 20’1918 M = 7.3, MM = VIII, Área Oeste de PR, Tsunami 20’1943 M = 7.5, MM = V, Noreste de Puerto Rico

Soufriere

Kick’em Jenny

EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS and Active Volcanoes

MEDICIONES DE GPS Jansma, 2000

TSUNAMIS EN PUERTO RICO

Intensity H (m)

I-V < 1.0

VI 2.0

VII-VIII 4.0

IX-X 8.0

XI 16.0

XII 32.0

Puerto Rico Trench

Septentrional Fault Zone

Mona Canyon

Muertos Trough Anegada Passage

Sombrero Seismic Zone

19ºN Fault Zone

VI Basin

CARIBBEAN PLATE

PUERTO RICO

PLACAS TECTONICAS: Sismicidad Mundial

Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)

DISTRIBUCION LOCAL DE SISMICIDAD

Clinton, Cua, Huèrfano, von Hillebrandt and Martinez (2006)

(J. Joyce)

(ten Brink)

(P. Dillon)

PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

||||

||||

||||

||

||

||||

||

||||

( Masson and Scanlon )

PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

||||

||||

|||| ||

||

||

||

||||

||

|| ||

|| ||||

||

||||

||

||||

||

||

||

( D. Larue )

PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

(N. Grindlay )

PUERTO RICO FAULT SYSTEMS

(W. McCann )

ZONAS SISMICAS Y MODELAJE NUMERICO

PRT-ASegments: 24Maximum M: 8.0Recurrence T: 3800

PRT-BSegments: 27Maximum M: 8.0Recurrence T: 3800

19ºNSegments: 16Maximum M: 7.6Recurrence T: 3300

SOMBRERO SZSegments: 24Maximum M: 7.7Recurrence T: 1200

ANEGADA P.Segments: 28Maximum M: 7.7Recurrence T: 3700

LEEWARD LZ.Segments: 11Maximum M: 7.0Recurrence T: 3000

MUERTOS T.Segments: 28Maximum M: 7.7Recurrence T: 3700

SEPTENTRIONAL F.Segments: 14Maximum M: 7.8 (ref)Recurrence T: 1900

MONA CANYONSegments: 24Maximum M: 7.5Recurrence T: 2000

EASTERN DR.Segments: 9Maximum M: 7.2Recurrence T: 800

SOUTHWESTERN Segments: 36Maximum M: 6.6Recurrence T: 1800

NORTH PLATFORMSegments: 25Maximum M: 6.8Recurrence T: 2500

PUERTO RICO REGION

Faults: 102Segments: 268 Maximum M (Faults): 7.6Maximum M (Segments): 7.2Seismic Catalogue: 10031Waveform Catalogue: 3518Quakes used: 4422Depth: ≤ 50 kmOffshore SeismicityCompleteness: 3.2 Ml (Outside)

( Huérfano )

PR-TWMP Numerical Data Base

TSUNAMI GENERATION AND ATACK

GEOMETRY, SIZE and TIMING

HYPOCENTER

MALLAS UTILIZADAS EN LAS SIMULACIONES

A : 27 sec/arcB : 9 sec/arcC : 3 sec/arc

R5: Strike = 122Dip = 80Rake = 90Mw = 7.7

{Geometry

Size…….

TSUNAMIEVACUATION MAP

Ponce, PR

QUE PODEMOS HACER?