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TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities!
Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
We know how to “survive”
MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS
GROWTH 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E
GNP (US$mn) 150.735 150.970 158,804 174,136 129,295 201,206 143,664 182,485 239,121 301,656 362,755 402,103 495,457GNP Growth (annual % chg.) 9,3 0,9 6.0 8.0 -5.5 6.5 -9.5 7.9 5.9 9.9 7.6 6.0 4.7
INFLATION 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E
CPI (annual % chg.) 60,4 71,1 66.0 71.1 125.5 39.0 68.5 29.7 18.4 9.4 7.7 9.7 7.0CPI (12-month average annual % chg.) 60,3 66,0 70.1 66.1 106.3 54.9 54.4 45.0 25.3 8.6 8.2 9.6 8.5
Source: Turkstat, Eczacibasi Securites Research
Average growth rate of 7.2% since 2001
Inflation rate below 10% achieved in the last years
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
Growth
-10-8-6-4-202468
1012
1971
1975
1979
1983
1987
1991
1995
1999
2003
2007E
GNP Growth (y/y)%
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
12,000
15,000
18,000
21,000
24,000
27,000
30,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
FDI Inflows (left) FDI/GNP (right)
US$mn %
Economy- Balance of Payments
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
Projections
2007 2008
GDP (billion USD) 495.46 576.47
GDP growth (%) 4.7% 5.5%
CPI inflation (year end) 7.0% 6.5%
CA Deficit (% of GDP) -6.8% -6.7%
FDI (billion UDS) 20 16
Projections - Economy in TR!
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
FDI Flow – A hot topic for TR
A country;
– which is at the crossroads of energy lines
– with a young and trained population
– and increasing manufacturing capacity
offers solid opportunities for the investors!
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
FDI Flow
Substantial upward trend in the FDI Volume;
– Average annual rate of FDI inflow to TR was
1-2 billion US$ until year 2001
– 2005 FDI inflow to TR is 9,8 billion US$
– 2006 FDI inflow to TR is 20,2 billion US$
– Upward trend still continues...
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
FDI Flow - Some examples in last 3 years
Banking and Finance
• TEB - BNP Paribas (France) - 217 Million USD
• Dışbank - Fortis (Belgium) - 1.16 Billion USD
• Yapı Kredi - Koç Holding + Unicredito (Italy) - 1.5 Billion USD
• Akbank – Citi Group (US) - 3.1 Billion USD
• Garanti Bank – GE Capital (US) – 2.8 Billion USD
• Finansbank – National Bank of Greece - 2.8 Billion USD
• General Insurance – Mapfre (Spain) - 375 Million USD
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
Other Sectors
• Akmerkez Shop. Mall – Corio (Netherlands) - 190 Million USD
• Kent Food – Cadbury Schweppes (UK) - 96 Million USD
• Petrol Ofisi – OMV (Austria) - 1 Billion USD
• Mey Alcoholic Beverages – TPG (US) - 810 Million USD
• Cevahir Mall – St.Martins (Kuwait) - 750 Million USD
• Eczacıbaşı Pharma - Zentiva (Czech) - 612 Million USD
• Enerjisa – Verbund (Austria) - 326 Million USD
FDI Flow - Some examples in last 3 years
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
FDI Flow - Sectors
At the moment FDI mainly goes to;
– Banking and Finance
– Energy
– Transportation
– Real Estate and Land Development
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
FDI Flow – Potential Sectors
Very good opportunities in areas like;
– Energy
– Tourism
– Media
– Consumer Products
– Retailing
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E
US$bn
Net Tourism Revenues
Tourism Figures
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
A few words over ISE
• Established in 1986, a relatively young stock market
• Over the past 19 years:
number of the ISE-listed companies rose from 80 to 326, ISE-100 Mcap from US$1bn to US$141bn
• Around 66% of the IPOs are allocated to foreign institutional investors
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
01836547290108126144162180198216234252270288
Mcap ($bn) (right) Number of firms (left)
Mcap of the ISE & the number of listed companies
Source: ISE
(US$bn)
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
Sectoral Breakdown of Free-Float
• A wide range of companies and sectors, with banks and conglomerates having the largest pie in the free-float Mcap
• A large number of companies having JVs with foreign partners, such as:
Ford Motor – Otosan Fiat Auto – TofasPhillip Morris – Carrefour – Mitsubishi – Sabanci HoldingUniCredito Italiano – Koc HoldingAOL Time Warner – Dogan Media Group
Source: ISE
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
Ban
ks
Con
glom
erat
es
Pet
role
um
C. D
ura
ble
s
Tel
ecom
Ret
ail
Au
tom
otiv
e
Met
als
Bre
wer
ies
Cem
ent
Oth
ers
17
15
7
176
12
518 16
3
223
Number of the ISE-listed companies
- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -
Foreign Holdings - ISE
• During the past 10 years, the share of foreign holdings in the free - float Mcap of the ISE always remained above 30%
• Foreign interest in the ISE in 2007 is still on an up-trend
• ISE is one of the most attractive SEs of the world with lucratively high earnings!
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
85%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,00070,000
F. Holdings ($mn) (right) % share in free-float (left)
(US$mn)
Source: ISE
Thank you for your kind attention.
Tel: +90 212 270 3969 Fax: +90 212 270 7432 Web: www.gyiad.org E-Mail: [email protected]