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TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

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Page 1: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities!

Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

Page 2: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

We know how to “survive”

MACROECONOMIC PARAMETERS

GROWTH 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E

GNP (US$mn) 150.735 150.970 158,804 174,136 129,295 201,206 143,664 182,485 239,121 301,656 362,755 402,103 495,457GNP Growth (annual % chg.) 9,3 0,9 6.0 8.0 -5.5 6.5 -9.5 7.9 5.9 9.9 7.6 6.0 4.7

INFLATION 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E

CPI (annual % chg.) 60,4 71,1 66.0 71.1 125.5 39.0 68.5 29.7 18.4 9.4 7.7 9.7 7.0CPI (12-month average annual % chg.) 60,3 66,0 70.1 66.1 106.3 54.9 54.4 45.0 25.3 8.6 8.2 9.6 8.5

Source: Turkstat, Eczacibasi Securites Research

Average growth rate of 7.2% since 2001

Inflation rate below 10% achieved in the last years

Page 3: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

Growth

-10-8-6-4-202468

1012

1971

1975

1979

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

2003

2007E

GNP Growth (y/y)%

Page 4: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

27,000

30,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

FDI Inflows (left) FDI/GNP (right)

US$mn %

Economy- Balance of Payments

Page 5: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

  Projections

  2007 2008

GDP (billion USD) 495.46 576.47

GDP growth (%) 4.7% 5.5%

CPI inflation (year end) 7.0% 6.5%

CA Deficit (% of GDP) -6.8% -6.7%

FDI (billion UDS) 20 16

Projections - Economy in TR!

Page 6: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

FDI Flow – A hot topic for TR

A country;

– which is at the crossroads of energy lines

– with a young and trained population

– and increasing manufacturing capacity

offers solid opportunities for the investors!

Page 7: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

FDI Flow

Substantial upward trend in the FDI Volume;

– Average annual rate of FDI inflow to TR was

1-2 billion US$ until year 2001

– 2005 FDI inflow to TR is 9,8 billion US$

– 2006 FDI inflow to TR is 20,2 billion US$

– Upward trend still continues...

Page 8: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

FDI Flow - Some examples in last 3 years

Banking and Finance

• TEB - BNP Paribas (France) - 217 Million USD

• Dışbank - Fortis (Belgium) - 1.16 Billion USD

• Yapı Kredi - Koç Holding + Unicredito (Italy) - 1.5 Billion USD

• Akbank – Citi Group (US) - 3.1 Billion USD

• Garanti Bank – GE Capital (US) – 2.8 Billion USD

• Finansbank – National Bank of Greece - 2.8 Billion USD

• General Insurance – Mapfre (Spain) - 375 Million USD

Page 9: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

Other Sectors

• Akmerkez Shop. Mall – Corio (Netherlands) - 190 Million USD

• Kent Food – Cadbury Schweppes (UK) - 96 Million USD

• Petrol Ofisi – OMV (Austria) - 1 Billion USD

• Mey Alcoholic Beverages – TPG (US) - 810 Million USD

• Cevahir Mall – St.Martins (Kuwait) - 750 Million USD

• Eczacıbaşı Pharma - Zentiva (Czech) - 612 Million USD

• Enerjisa – Verbund (Austria) - 326 Million USD

FDI Flow - Some examples in last 3 years

Page 10: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

FDI Flow - Sectors

At the moment FDI mainly goes to;

– Banking and Finance

– Energy

– Transportation

– Real Estate and Land Development

Page 11: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

FDI Flow – Potential Sectors

Very good opportunities in areas like;

– Energy

– Tourism

– Media

– Consumer Products

– Retailing

Page 12: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E

US$bn

Net Tourism Revenues

Tourism Figures

Page 13: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

A few words over ISE

• Established in 1986, a relatively young stock market

• Over the past 19 years:

number of the ISE-listed companies rose from 80 to 326, ISE-100 Mcap from US$1bn to US$141bn

• Around 66% of the IPOs are allocated to foreign institutional investors

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

01836547290108126144162180198216234252270288

Mcap ($bn) (right) Number of firms (left)

Mcap of the ISE & the number of listed companies

Source: ISE

(US$bn)

Page 14: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

Sectoral Breakdown of Free-Float

• A wide range of companies and sectors, with banks and conglomerates having the largest pie in the free-float Mcap

• A large number of companies having JVs with foreign partners, such as:

Ford Motor – Otosan Fiat Auto – TofasPhillip Morris – Carrefour – Mitsubishi – Sabanci HoldingUniCredito Italiano – Koc HoldingAOL Time Warner – Dogan Media Group

Source: ISE

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

Ban

ks

Con

glom

erat

es

Pet

role

um

C. D

ura

ble

s

Tel

ecom

Ret

ail

Au

tom

otiv

e

Met

als

Bre

wer

ies

Cem

ent

Oth

ers

17

15

7

176

12

518 16

3

223

Number of the ISE-listed companies

Page 15: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

- Young Executives and Businessmen Association of TURKEY -

Foreign Holdings - ISE

• During the past 10 years, the share of foreign holdings in the free - float Mcap of the ISE always remained above 30%

• Foreign interest in the ISE in 2007 is still on an up-trend

• ISE is one of the most attractive SEs of the world with lucratively high earnings!

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

85%

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

05,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00050,00055,00060,00065,00070,000

F. Holdings ($mn) (right) % share in free-float (left)

(US$mn)

Source: ISE

Page 16: TURKEY An old partner with new opportunities! Vienna Economic Forum, 05th of November 2007, Vienna AUSTRIA

Thank you for your kind attention.

Tel: +90 212 270 3969 Fax: +90 212 270 7432 Web: www.gyiad.org E-Mail: [email protected]