Turkish Neocon Conspiracy 1981

8/8/2019 Turkish Neocon Conspiracy 1981

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'CCRETiCONPIOENTIAL whenEnclosure removed. 1

TO: See Dist r ibut ion L i . t ~ FROM; EUR - Lawrence S. l!:aq .SUBJECT: USC Pol icy toward TIlr ay

An in teragency vorklng group meeting on USG poUcy10; i l l -" ;>' i o ; : r ~ ~ r ; e ! . w i ~ ~ : ; ; ~ ~ : ! n ~ n o i r ~ ~ : i ~ ; ~ f ! ; ; n ~ ;

Room, R . : x l 1 l l ~ MS. David C. Gompert wi l l Chair themeeting-. " ~ o f S The pl.lrp08e of the !LM'atlng i s to bui ld on the . a r 1 i e rEastern Mediterranean IG atudy by pul l ing toge ther .. null'lbaroj! major iSSUII& cur ren t ly cOming to 8 head in US-Turkishra la t iona .The a t tached dra f t paper wi l l se rve a . the fr.,...workfo r the diBcusBion.Plcal le give Jill! Williall\lJ on th e Turkish De.k (632-1562)the name lind t i t l e of your repre! lentat ive a t thEa Septelllber 11

noeetin9DISTRIBUTION LIST:DOD/OARD/ISP - I t t . Richard Per leJCS ' - Lt. Gen. Paul S. GormanCIA -I )ICA - Hi. Terrenea CllthermanT - Mr. BuckleyPM - I t t . Richard BurtEB - Mr. Robert O. Hormata5/1' - Mr. 1',"1,11 woHowit:INR - Ambassador Ronald Spiers!lEA - Alnbaasador Nichola. A. Vel io tes~ l S C - Mr. James RentschlerAttachment:Draf t Paper .

State Dept, review completedSECRETG O S ~ B 7

v&d For ReleASe 2008107109 CIA.ROP83BOO140ROOO100120003-9

25X


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~ " ':': ~ . ~ Approved For Release 2008107/09 CIA-RDP83BOO14OROOO10012Q003-9- .. .. ...!-'I .por t anea of Turkey In Global USC Stn . t e sy

Geography and h ia to ry make Turkey II. cro road . offundlu.antel llSG cur l ty In t e r e . Tr ad i t i o n a l l y . Turkey he.. ved ua in th e c o n t e . t o f tlA1'O and We.ta.,n Europe, 1 . .,fel low de-ocrecy. the arn bulwark o f the southern f lank.tbe guardian o f th e v i t a l a t r a l t . Turke y i . a lao anine : l t r ic loble paJ;"t o f th e f ab r ic o f Eas tern Meditenaneani u It gr. .at ly i n f l ..e"c!!, usa pol icy ."i th ce .pec t toGreece and Cyprua; the f;onverae i. no Ie t rue . For t h l .

The pa . t two year a heve gi ..en Turkey ... -"la jo r new 41 nalonot h lportance to the usc . Togeth e r , the ab:rupt c oval o f our

of a i l i t e ry might in the ' rren ecauc ua, the downwu"d ap1ral ofthe I renian revo lu t ion , and th e uncer ta in outcome ot theI r an - I raq war have moved Turkey to cen te r . tege in usae t r e t e g i c planning fo r Southw t A d a . Beyond i t at r ad1 t iona l - - and v i t e U y t e p o r t a n t - - ro l a in NATO end Europe,Turkey now hea a t l e e e t the p o t e n t i a l to becolla an anchor ot

the th ree t to and In Sout.hwe.t. .... ia . TI,e cruc ia l t a . t to r USC

.RJ)S-3 9 / 8 ! 01A r o ~ e d For Relaasl 2008107109 . CIA.ROP83900140ROOO10012OO1J3.9


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.. ApprovEld For Release 2008107/09 CIARDPS3BOO140ROOO100120003.9 SECRET- , -

protec ted by ""p .nd.d coop . r . t i on with th . I./SG and NATO indeaUng with t .hat . 1 tua t ion .

W. ere e long way f roe t h a t pa in t , and . . . lIay not fu l lyeucc d. Yet , Turk 'y ' e uDdeniable po t . n t i a l r equ i r t ha t w ake a .aJ[imu.oo e f f o r t ~ without d .......ging Our o the r v i t a li n t e r e . t . . Hare then any other COuntry- - inclucUng .egypt Ilndl . r ae l - -Turkey h as .....t. wh i ch , i f aVai lab le to us, could b .c r i t i c a l in IIIlteting a0!!l' of our SWA reGuireOl .n tu awa l l - dhc l p l i n . d and c o h . d v . mil i t a ry fore r u c t u r ' l a. ub . tan t i . l networ k o f i n -p l a c ' I./SG f a c i l iU which could be.:o;panaed and upgraded: geographic pro:o;i ..i ty to SWA: andr sonably good r e l a t i on . with a l l r 'g ion . l a t . t e a , includingl a r 1 . In add i t ion , TUrk.y ha . a h ia to ry - -wi th ao r . wup.wthan wdown."-_of defenae cooP. ra t ion with u . d .. t ing back to1941, and it .h a rea our cOlllaitJlent to ..s . t e rn vI:I.lus. endPOl i t i ca l . y . t ....e, I:I.nd to NATO . How well We ...anage ourb i l a t e ra l r . l a t i on .h ip with Ankc,r., including the conc . rn . theTurk! de. l I . vitl:l.l to i n t . r a : J t . , wil l in l a rge pa r tde t . r a i n . whuther the GOT wi l l c1l00ae to work with uS indefena . of mutual ly p ' rce tv . . , secur i ty i n t e r e . t e in SWA.

Approved For Releue 2008107109 CIA-RDP83BOO140ROOO1001201lO)..9


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SECRET

In USG atrate


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, Approvttd For Release 2008107109 : CIA-RDP838oo140ROOO100120003_9 ;,: - 4 -

th e ne ar terlil. In a negat ive way, however, they i l luo t ra tOl thefunda. ,ental i m p o ~ t a n < ; , e of TurklSh a t a b i l i t y , ot renq th ,western or ient" , t ion to broa.d USG s t ra tog!c i n t e r e s t u .

I I . The N"ture of th e Turkish -A ' .. ri


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. ,.. .-:,...... A"'""'""'ed for Release 2008107/09 CIARDP83BOO140ROOO100120003-9':< ""'-' . ' - , -

gr i . va nc . e . the uni1et . ra1 withdra .a1 ot the J up i t e r l I iee l1.ein 1963, the John.cn l e t t e r of 1964, the USG re e t . raining role1n t he Cyprue c r i ee e o f t.h e 196 ,) ' e and 1974 1 and t.he 1975- 1978p a r t i a l arlla embargo. Turkey a l so . ha res a l l ! . . , conc . rn . ,st.lLlling frel l r .cent . AIa.E"ican hia tory . t ha t the USG lIay not b ea wholly r . 1 i ab1 . or predic t .able par tne r .

At. a l l t i l les , the . k.y t.o t.he h.a1t.h of the T'urkish-Alaarlcanr . la t . iocahip ill h ~ t . h e r Or not. the GOT perce lvea t .hat t.he USGi. =akil l i a -b e f f o r t - t.o l l . lp Turkey in a l l r pec t .Beyon(l . c rupu lou . i l l lpl . lI .ntation of our obl igat . ion . und. r the1980 Oaf .n an(l conolll1c Coop .n.t ion Agre.llent. (DECA) , Turkey

cur i ty a . s i s t a n c . on c onc . s . io n" l t.er.,r;, un relll i t t ingpo l i t i c a l .uppo'rt. in ......t . r n European and o ther donor csp i t .a l . ,"un


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Approved Fer Re. e 2008107109 : CIA-RDP83BOO140R; 100120003-9

p o t e n t i s l donors on Turkey' 6 bebs l f . Because th e Turk6 viewour laborl l ae a "bee t e t f o r t : ~ we cur ren t ly have sn exce l len tb11" t e r a l re l l l t ionehip , perhaps the be s t 6i nce the 1950 ' 6 .Given the naturl! o f th e t i e , however, th ie s i tu" t1on i se:xtrelRely preC"rioUtl. I t could end abrupt ly if the USG fa11edto sus ta in th e pace o f pe r forlilanc e which the Turks need andwant. The GOT ie wa tching care fu l ly to eee whether we cande l iver the FY-1982 a,id l eve l s t h a t have been propolled.

So long ae the Turk6 perceiVe a usa "bes t e f fo r t - in thebrolld . en . . . the Turkiah-A..,ericlIn r .. l s t ionsh ip wi l l pl:oaper .This gives us Ilt l e " s t the chance to achieve OUr . t r a t e g i cob jec t ives fOI: Turkey, inclUding expanded Coopen. t ion in sw ...Conversely, the b i l a t e r s l r e l l l t ionship wOuld Suffer mlljord"m"ge in th e even t o f s prec ip i tous drop in l eve l . of usasecur i ty sss is t l lnce and p o l i t i c a l s upport . In the re su l t an tc l i ..s te o f diminished GOT conf idence , othe r net t lesomeiBBUB,.- - e_g . , Cengre6sional badgering On CyprUS, on r e l s t i o n swith Greece, on th e psce o f r e tu rn to democracy: and snArmenian niche in the prop06ed Holocau s t MU6eulll--would becomemore content ious . We WOuld heve little prospec t o f echievingOur f i t ra tegie ob jee t ives fo r ' I \ lrkey--whether in the eOntext o fNATO. force modernill'lI t ion . democratic and Iiltable government , orcoop .. a t lon in SWA.

A p p r O ~ e d For Release 2008107109 : CIA-RDP63BOO140ROOO100120003-9

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Turkish Neocon Conspiracy 1981