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Election 2020

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Verified Voter Omnibus Survey N=1,001 Likely Electorate November 16 - November 20, 2020

We know that on Election Day, those who turn out to vote won't necessarily look like the pool of all registered voters. Some voters are more likely to turn out than others, and polling should reflect that reality. But not everyone who shows up to vote on Election Day is a "likely voter," and often times, pollsters' methods of excluding "unlikely voters" can leave out those who are becoming newly activated.

That's why we at Echelon Insights made the switch not to a "likely voter" sample which arbitrarily excludes certain voters, but to our "Likely Electorate" (LE) frame, which accounts for voter turnout probability in how we weight our national survey.

We surveyed N = 1,001 registered voters in the Likely Electorate online using a voter file-matched sample as part of our monthly Verified Voter Omnibus tracking survey of the 2020 political environment. The sample was weighted to known characteristics of the 2020 “Likely Electorate” population, a frame which takes into account demographic and turnout characteristics of the 2020 electorate.

Meet the Likely Electorate

The Biden Administration

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Donald Trump run for President in 2024Joe Biden run for re-election in 2024

Only 46% of Biden Voters Want Him to Run in 2024

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Likely Electorate

Trump Voters

Biden Voters 15%

80%

47%

39%

14%

27%

46%

6%

26%

Yes Unsure No

Q. If Joe Biden becomes President, would you like to see…

Likely Electorate

Trump Voters

Biden Voters 94%

20%

59%

3%

16%

9%

4%

63%

32%

No Mandate for Prioritizing a Progressive Agenda, Even Among Biden VotersQ. If you had to choose, which of these would you most like to see Joe Biden address as President?

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Likely Electorate

Trump Voters

Biden Voters 41%

6%

25%

8%

17%

13%

51%

77%

62%

Bringing the economy and unemployment back to where

they were before the pandemic

Unsure Pursuing a bold progressive agenda on issues like

health care and climate change

Tax Increases, Public Option Far Down the List of Priorities

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Controlling the growth of new coronavirus infections

Ensuring economic recovery and job creation

Expediting the distribution of a coronavirus vaccine

Repairing race relations

Raising taxes on the wealthy

Creating a public health insurance option

Rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change

Cooperating with other nations

Rejoining the World Health Organization

None of these/Something else 19%

4%

7%

7%

9%

10%

11%

26%

33%

42%

Q. Which two of these would you consider the top priorities for Joe Biden to address as President?

Biden Supporters More Open To Idea Of Split Senate ControlQ. Assuming that Joe Biden is certified as the winner of the election, which party do you want to control the Senate?

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Likely Electorate

Trump Voters

Biden Voters 87%

2%

45%

7%

8%

10%

6%

90%

45%

The Republican Party Unsure The Democratic Party

Checks & Balances, Debt Are Top Messages Against Dem Trifecta

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One party having full control of government without checks and balances

Using the pandemic to push unrelated big spending projects and plunging the country further into the debt

Raising taxes in the middle of a recession

Defunding and undermining police departments

Moving the country in the direction of socialism with higher taxes and a government takeover of health care

Putting the country into another economically devastating lockdown

Opening up the border and reversing sensible border control measures

Packing the Supreme Court with liberal judges 41%

37%

38%

37%

35%

34%

33%

32%

7%

6%

5%

6%

6%

6%

6%

6%

52%

56%

57%

58%

59%

60%

61%

62%

Very/Somewhat Concerned

Unsure Not Very Concerned/ Not Concerned At All

Q. Joe Biden currently leads in the vote count for President and control of the Senate will be decided by two special elections in Georgia in January. If Democrats win control of the Presidency and both houses of Congress, rate how concerned you would be about each of the following.

Latinos Most Worried About Efforts To Defund Police

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One party having full control of government without checks and balances

Using the pandemic to push unrelated big spending projects and plunging the country further into the debt

Raising taxes in the middle of a recession

Defunding and undermining police departments

Moving the country in the direction of socialism with higher taxes and a government takeover of health care

Putting the country into another economically devastating lockdown

Opening up the border and reversing sensible border control measures

Packing the Supreme Court with liberal judges

64% 65% 62%

58% 65% 61%

58% 59% 60%

55% 65% 59%

55% 58% 59%

54% 54% 59%

55% 59% 59%

46% 57% 52%

Independents Latino Voters Suburban Voters

Q. Joe Biden currently leads in the vote count for President and control of the Senate will be decided by two special elections in Georgia in January. If Democrats win control of the Presidency and both houses of Congress, rate how concerned you would be about each of the following. [Answering Very/Somewhat Concerned]

The Republican Primary

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Majority of GOP Wants to See Trump as Leading VoiceQ. Thinking ahead to the next four years if Joe Biden becomes President, would you like to see Donald Trump continue to be the leading voice for Republicans, or do you think it’s time for someone new to fill that role? [Asked of GOP+GOP-leaning Voters]

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GOP+Lean

GOP+Lean College

GOP+Lean NonCollege 57%

46%

53%

Donald Trump

27%

39%

31%

Someone new

16%

15%

15%

Unsure

Verified Voter Omnibus post-election survey of N=1,001 in 2020’s Likely Electorate, including n=465 Republicans & leaners Conducted November 16-20, 2020, MOE +/- 3.1%, GOP MOE +/- 4.5%

A Third Want Trump’s Policies with More Disciplined LeadersQ. If Joe Biden becomes President, which approach do you think Republicans should take in the next four years? [Asked of GOP+GOP-leaning Voters]

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GOP+Lean

GOP+Lean College

GOP+Lean NonCollege 43%

31%

39%

They should continue with Donald Trump as the leader of the party

30%

39%

33%

They should continue with Donald Trump’s policies but

with new leaders with a more disciplined personal style

14%

21%

16%

They should move away from Donald Trump and look to new leaders who are more like George W.

Bush or Mitt Romney

Verified Voter Omnibus post-election survey of N=1,001 in 2020’s Likely Electorate, including n=465 Republicans & leaners Conducted November 16-20, 2020, MOE +/- 3.1%, GOP MOE +/- 4.5%

#1 Concern for the GOP: Not Fighting Like Trump

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Q. Which of the following concerns you the most about the Republican Party if Joe Biden becomes President? [Asked of GOP+GOP-leaning Voters]

New leaders won’t fight like Donald Trump

New leaders will abandon Donald Trump’s policies

The party will continue to be run by Donald Trump and his supporters

None of these

Unsure 13%

10%

13%

19%

44%

Verified Voter Omnibus post-election survey of N=1,001 in 2020’s Likely Electorate, including n=465 Republicans & leaners Conducted November 16-20, 2020, MOE +/- 3.1%, GOP MOE +/- 4.5%

Trump Tops 2024 GOP Consideration, But Pence is Close 2ndQ. Which candidates would you consider supporting for the Republican nomination for President in 2024? You may choose as many as you like. [Asked of GOP+GOP-leaning Voters]

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Donald Trump Mike Pence

Ted Cruz Donald Trump, Jr.

Nikki Haley Marco Rubio

Tucker Carlson Dan Crenshaw

Mitt Romney Tim Scott

Ron DeSantis Rand Paul

Mike Pompeo John Kasich Tom Cotton

Greg Abbott Unsure 15%

5%7%7%

8%9%9%10%10%

11%12%

16%20%

22%32%

45%52%

The following candidates were tested but received

under 5% vote share:

Josh Hawley (4%) Ben Sasse (2%)

Larry Hogan (1%) Elise Stefanik (1%)

Verified Voter Omnibus post-election survey of N=1,001 in 2020’s Likely Electorate, including n=465 Republicans & leaners Conducted November 16-20, 2020, MOE +/- 3.1%, GOP MOE +/- 4.5%

Beyond our own public releases, the Verified Voter Omnibus is a resource companies and organizations can use to answer mission-critical questions through add-on questions to the monthly survey. It's the perfect tool for tracking a few core questions over time or gathering that one bit of crucial public opinion data you need right now.

By adding on to the Verified Voter Omnibus, you’ll receive:

Hands-on assistance with drafting your questions Full topline and crosstabs with 2020 election questions included A customized slide deck with your results

Contact omnibus@echeloninsights.com for more information.

Your questions answered by real voters