Planning for Automated Vehicle Technologies

Impact on Energy

Tyler C. Folsom, PhD, PE

Project Manager, Qi2, Kent, WA

Professor, University of Washington, Bothell, WA

Tyler@TFolsom.com

Easy predictions:

Safer roads Self-driving taxis blur the distinction

between public and private transportation

Less need for parking

Four Futures

1. Cars with improved Driver Assistance Systems (DAS) but still requiring a driver.

2. Cars that typically drive themselves; no license required.

3. Transit based vehicle automation.4. People moving from fixed homes to

automated Recreational Vehicles. (requires #2)

Why do big cars appeal?

Be able to haul peak load and passengers

SafetyComfortStatus

Automation supports smaller vehicles

Base two-person pods can connect to form larger vehicles.

The vehicle can be right-sized for the task at hand.

If traffic accidents are rare, a motorcycle is almost as safe as an SUV.

Small vehicles need not be cramped or Spartan.

Ultra-light PRT+

Reduced car ownership Motorcycles that are almost as safe as an

SUV Post-automotive cities Energy efficiency of 1000 (one thousand)

mpg equivalent [1] Urban transportation based on renewable

electricity Increased highway capacity with no new

construction [2] Public transportation more convenient,

faster, safer and cheaper than private transportation

Typical urban car average speeds

Location Mi/h km/h Notes

U.S. average commute

28 45 Average trip length is 12 mi. [3]

U.S. EPA city fuel rating

19 31 City driving cycle assumes 43% stopped or decelerating [4]

Japan city fuel rating 15 24 52% stopped or decelerating [4]

Mumbai, India 5-19 8-30 Minimum and maximum average speed [5].

Yakima, WA, USA 23.9 38.5 Average of 44 segments posted for 35 mph during PM peak. [6]

Typical light rail average speeds

Location Mi/h km/h Notes

Tokyo, Japan 16 26 Marunouchi line from Kasumigaseki to Ikebukuro travels 10.8 km in 25 minutes

New York City, USA 17.4 28.1 Average subway scheduled speed [7]

Seattle, USA 22 35 Downtown to airport is 15.5 mi, scheduled in 38 minutes plus 5 minute average wait time [8].

Vancouver, Canada 28 45 Does not include wait times

MARTA, Atlanta, USA 28.8 46.5 Average scheduled speed [7]

Washington, DC, USA 29.5 47.6 Average scheduled speed [7]

Typical light rail average speeds

Power to move a land vehiclePower = K1 * m * v + K2 * v3

Rolling + Aerodynamic

m: mass; v: velocity

The less-simplified version needs additional rolling power to overcome slopes or stop-and-go [9].

Ultra-light Electric Transit Predictions

Once there is a large pool of depleted batteries, energy can be harvested any time the sun shines or the wind blows.

Major reduction in fossil fuel consumption.

Less air and water pollution; improved public health.

Fewer green-house gasses.Oil is no longer a strategic commodity,

and military spending can decrease.

Possible Planning Implications Less required parking. A few remote

lots, rather than at each building. Human-scaled communities? Increased / decreased sprawl? Parking for vehicular homeless? Distributed solar & wind power

generation? Reduced need for heavy buses /

trucks → lighter roads?

Sources

[1] Tyler C. Folsom, Energy and Autonomous Vehicles, IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, Summer 2012, draft on www.qi2.com/index.php/transportation

[2] S. E. Shladover, “Reasons for operating AHS vehicles in platoons”, in Automated Highway Systems, P.A. Ioannou, Ed, New York, NY, Springer, 1996.

[3] Federal Highway Administration (2009) Summary of Travel Trends – 2009 National Household Travel Survey.

[4] S. C. Davis, S. W. Diegel and R. G. Boundy, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 29. July 2010 table 4.32. online cta.ornl.gov/data

[5] http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-01-18/mumbai/30638447_1_kmph-coastal-road-travel-speed

[6] City of Yakima, Travel Speed Study of Urban Streets Using GPS and GIS, 2002. http://www.yakimawa.gov/services/gis/files/2012/05/reportman.pdf

[7] Matt Johnson, Average scheduled speed: How does Metro compare? 2012. http://greatergreaterwashington.org/post/5183/average-schedule-speed-how-does-metro-compare/

[8] http://www.soundtransit.org/Rider-Guide/Link-light-rail[9] F.R. Whitt and D.G. Wilson, Bicycling Science, 2nd ed, Cambridge, MA:

MIT Press 1982.