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UBS N di Fi i l S i C fNordic Financial Services Conference19 September 2012p
CFO Peter Johansson, Sampo Group
2
S G l• Sampo Group results• If P&C and non‐life insurance marketsM d Lif d lif i k•Mandatum Life and life insurance markets
• NordeaS di id d k• Sampo as a dividend stock
3
Profit before taxes and comprehensive income
1,000EURm
Sampo Group´s average ROE2005‐2012/H1: 21.9%
Sampo plc excl. NordeaEURm 2011/H1 2012/H1Expenses ‐15 ‐16Net financing costs ‐27 ‐13
42 29
756 804 863800
Profit before taxes Comprehensive income
‐42 ‐29
Net debt in Sampo plc, 30 June 2012EURm
CurrentRate
2 42
7
451400
600 Gross debt 2,300Issued senior bonds and notes 1,697Domestic CP’s issued 603 Interest bearing assets 585
Rate~2.73%
42 44
84
65
294 326
23
4
105 284 341 378
200
‐8
Interest bearing assets 585Liquidity (cash and money market) ‐368Subordinated loans (subsidiaries) ‐217
Net debt 1 715
12
08 Net debt 1,715
If &PC Mandatum Nordea SampoLife Group
4
Fair value reserve by segment and asset class, 30 June 201230 June 2012
EURm Fixed income Equity
Derivat. held for Deferred
taxes FVR netincome q ytrading taxes
P&C insurance 156.4 144.6 ‐ ‐77.9 223.1
Life insurance 112.5 242.1 0.9 ‐87.1 268.4
Holding 1.7 0.5 ‐ ‐0.5 1.7
Sampo Group*) 266.1 387.2 0.9 ‐165.5 488.7
*) Eliminations included and figures after taxA t ll ti EURb 14 0 2 6 *) Eliminations included and figures after taxAsset allocation, EURbn 14.0 2.6Sensitivity, EURm•Equities ‐10% ‐264
+10% 264I t t 100 b 167• Interest ‐100 bps 167rates +100 bps ‐185
5
S G l• Sampo Group results• If P&C and nonlife insurance marketsM d Lif d lif i k•Mandatum Life and life insurance markets
• NordeaS di id d k• Sampo as a dividend stock
6
P&C insurance profit before taxes and comprehensive incomeand comprehensive income
707800EURm
Profit before taxes
Average ROE 2005‐Q2/2012 25.5%
644707
636641
600
Comprehensive income (after tax)
422 442425
308
451
400308
123200
123
02009 2010 2011 1‐6/2011 1‐6/2012
FVR, EURm 142 427 189 221 301(before tax)
7
P&C insurance combined ratio developmentH1 CR %
92.6 90.5 89.9 90.6 91.8 92.1 92.8 92.0 92.7 89.4100
%Long‐term CoR target < 95%
H1 CR‐%2005‐2012/H1Low 89.4Average 92.2Hi h 94 1
25.6 24.3 24.0 23.7 23.7 24.1 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.4
60
80< 95%
• Underwriting excellence andcontinuous efficiency improvement
High 94.1
67.0 66.2 65.9 66.9 68.1 68.0 69.1 68.4 69.4 66.040
• Scale and diversification benefits
Standard deviation
0
20 2.5%
5 4%
5.3%
Ri k ti C t ti
5.4%
5.4%
5.8%
Risk ratio Cost ratio
8
Nordic P&C insurance companies H1 2011/2012Combined ratio %
26100
120Combined ratio,%
92.586 189.4 89.3
96.887.6 85 5
117.1
98
MUTUALS
75.7 72.4 74.3 74.3 69 2 69 8 68 9 71 4 75.4 70 570.1 69.4 81 76
81.272.4
101.6 92.2
2.64.6 1.5 6.4
60
8086.185.5
17 17 16 8 16 8 16 16 2 16 3 16 2 16 915.6 21 5 23.1 21 22 26 24.5 24 24.9
69.2 69.8 68.9 71.4 70.5
20
40
17 17 16.8 16.8 16 16.2 16.3 16.2 16.9 21.5 23.1 21 22
‐1.8 ‐2.1
‐20
0
Expense ratio Claims ratio Ceded business
Source: Company reports
9
P&C insurance H1/2012 ‐ Combined ratio,%140 Ceded business Claims ratio Expense ratio
FinlandCeded business Claims ratio Expense ratio
Sweden
92 280100120140 p
89.4 92.5 96.8 97.4
117.1
80
100
120p
95.2 100.298
17 23.1 24.5 24.9 25.1
72.4 69.4 72.492.2
73.3
0204060 78.9 76 79.6
20
40
60
‐200
If Pohjola Tapiola Fennia Tryg
16.3 22 19.70
If LF Tryg
C d d b i Cl i ti E tiDenmark
Ceded business Claims ratio Expense ratioNorway
906080100120
Ceded business Claims ratio Expense ratio110.6
86.6 92.387.6
64 3 70 572
66 72 760
80
100Ceded business Claims ratio Expense ratio
81.1 86.1 88.193.2 84.0
20.6 16.2 15 16.2
9069.8 71.6 71.4
0204060
16.8 15.6 21.2 18 16.7
64.3 70.5 66 72.7
0
20
40
‐20 If Topdanmark Tryg Alm.Brand ‐20If Gjensidige Sparebank1 Storebrand Tryg
Source: Company reportsIf´s Topdanmark holding 24.6%(of voting shares)
10
Europe’s largest non‐life insurance groupsin 2011 Nonlife businessNonlifein 2011
71.9
62 9
26.9
35 4
0 20 40 60 80 100
ZürichErgo
Non life business % of total premiums
7267
NonlifeGWP, EURbn
24.712 4
CR,%
98.8
98 362.9
70.9
69.9
67.8
35.4
27
27.9
29.6
ErgoAXA
AllianzGroupama
67
376565
12.4
30.044.811.1
98.3
97.9
97.8
97.4
69.2
64.4
69
27.7
32.4
27.6
pMapfreAviva
Generali
7433
33
14.511.2
22.8
96.9
96.8
96.5
68.3
66.3
68.1
27.8
28.6
29.1
AchmeaRSA
Average excl.IF
83100
16.210.5
96.1
94.9
97.4
74.7 17.3If P&C
Claims ratio,% Expense ratio,%
1004.492.0
Source: FundaciónMapfre June 2012
11
If NAV and cumulative dividend
3,4143 500
4,000EURm • NAV contribution from Q4/2004 to Q2/2012 EURbn 4.1
• Payout ratio 84%
2 2642,595
2,5452,470
2,941
2,468
3,008
2,500
3,000
3,500
2,2642,135
1,960
1,577
2,199
1,280
1,7991,980
1,500
2,000
2,500
645 635 712
249
1,280
500
1,000
,
02001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2
2012S
NAV Cumulative dividend* from 2004 IFRS
Sampoownership % 38% 100%
12
S G l• Sampo Group results• If P&C and non‐life insurance marketsM d Lif d lif i k•Mandatum Life and life insurance markets
• NordeaS di id d k• Sampo as a dividend stock
13
Life insuranceprofit before taxes and comprehensive incomeprofit before taxes and comprehensive income
495500EURm Profit before taxes
Comprehensive incomeAverage ROE 2005‐Q2/2012 19.3%
332300
400
p
121 142 13784 105
200
300
84 65
‐80
100
‐115
8
‐200
‐100
2009 2010 2011 1‐6/2011 1‐6/2012
FVR 272 586 282 489 354(before tax)
14
Life insurance companies in Finland600
Premiums written H1/11 90P fi b f H1/11484 482
389
300
400
500Premiums written H1/11
Premiums written H1/12
m 2
65
50607080
Profit before taxes H1/11
Profit before taxes H1/12
m
50
164
51100
200
300
EURm 52
20
7.4
40
121020304050
EURm
420
473
473
59 158
45
50 51
0ML Nordea OP Life Aktia Tapiola Fennia
84 4.9
30 7
010
ML OP Life Aktia Tapiola Fennia
Mandatum Life’s market shares in Finland
23.5 24.722.3
19.9202530
Solvency ratio H1/11 Solvency ratio H1/12Mandatum Life s market shares in Finland
28 8
55.5
40
50
601.‐6.2011 1.‐6.2012
23.2
15.8
15.9
18.0
18.1
11.3
15.9 14.7
05101520
%
22.9
24.5
19.0
42.6
14.2
26.9 28.821.7
13.8
0
10
20
30%
0ML OP Life Aktia Tapiola Fennia Nordea
0
Source: Company reports
15
Mandatum Life NAV and cumulative dividend
1,225 1,225 1,2251,325
1 200
1,400EURm
• NAV contribution from Q4/2001 to Q2/2012 EURbn 2.0• Payout ratio 67%
964 952
836
1,079
865
971
825
1,0251,000
1,200
450
736 756
525
825
600
800
320397
450
204175
325425
200
400
250
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2 20122012NAV Cumulative dividend
* from 2004 IFRS
16
Life insurance in Finland,investment returns, % Threats concerning with‐profit business:
• Higher capital requirements under Solvency II, %
526 Annual average 2007‐H1/2012 H1/2012%
Higher capital requirements under Solvency II• Prolonged low interest rate environment
4.7 4.54.1 4.13.9
4.64.1 4.3
5.24.7
4
5
3.2
2
3.4
3
4
2 1.9
1
2
0Mandatum
LifeKaleva Fennia Life Tapiola Life Aktia Nordea Life
FinlandOP Life
Life Finland
17
Mandatum Life mark‐to‐market investment returnand 10Y gvmt bond yieldand 10Y gvmt bond yield
16.8
141618% With‐Profit business
‐Even under extreme volatility• High ( margin) 13.1 %‐points• Low (margin) 12 1 % points
12
9.711.1
8101214 • Low (margin) ‐12.1 %‐points
Average margin has been 3.09 %‐points
9.7
5.33.92
468
2.5% 3.0%3.5%
1.4
3.3 3.8 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.0 3.0 2.1
4‐202
7.8‐8‐6‐4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1/2012H2/2012 2013 20142005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 H1/2012H2/2012 2013 2014
ML m‐t‐m investment return 10Y average bond yield Guaranteed rate,3.5%
18
Mandatum Life’s investments, 30 June 2012AFS investmentsInvestment allocation AFS investments
Unrealized gains before taxesInvestment allocationTotal EUR 5.4 billion
Other 750
EURm
Money Market9%
Private Equity
Real Estate3%
Other5%
0
417343
485
586560489 475
354
500
Private Equity5%
0 30 64 55 67 36 31 5 2 280
61142253
188 31
8 450
430
364
131 206
353
242
136 181
272343
201282
250
Bonds52%
Equities26%
‐44
‐67
‐33 ‐63 2012 13 16 15 16 13 13 12 70 76 12 1121
19‐242
‐291
‐126
‐48‐106
250
0
Bonds
Duration 1.8 years
52% ‐
‐274‐353
‐500
‐250
08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12
Bonds
Equities
yAverage maturity 2.2 yearsFixed income running yield 5.3%
6/0
9/0
12/0 3/0
6/0
9/0
12/0 3/1
6/1
9/1
12/1 3/1
6/1
9/1
12/1 3/1
6/1
19
If P&C investments, 30 June 2012AFS investmentsInvestment allocation AFS investments
unrealized gains before taxesInvestment allocationtotal EUR 11.6 billion
R l E t t 384427 402
500EURm
Money Market10 %
Equities10 %
Real Estate1 %
9
142
47185
327
258
113
88252
145
142
322
217
384329
221
95
189
402
301
250
‐137
‐216
‐257
330 ‐1
4969 70180
170
199
100
71 108
103
101 150
156
12
‐31
71
1‐8
8
37
0
‐3‐11
‐178
‐311
305
‐176
‐249
‐394‐325
‐500
‐250
EquitiesBonds
Duration 1 1 years
Bonds78 %
‐3
‐568‐635
‐750
500
08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12Duration 1.1 yearsAverage maturity 2.3 yearsFixed income running yield 3.8%
6/0
9/0
12/0 3/0
6/0
9/0
12/0 3/1
6/1
9/1
12/1 3/1
6/1
9/1
12/1 3/1
6/1
20
Nordic currencies and interest rates‐challenging interest rate environment for investments
Sampo Group´sSampo Group sNAV• EUR/SEK• EUR/NOK
Negative
Positive
‐> 7.9.2012
in othercomprehensiveincome
21
S G l• Sampo Group results• If P&C and non‐life insurance marketsM d Lif d lif i k•Mandatum Life and life insurance markets
• NordeaS di id d k• Sampo as a dividend stock
22
Nordea quarterly operating profit
1 200EURm
Nordea´s pre‐provisions volatilityis the lowest among Nordic banks
900
1,200 Operating profit Restructuring charge78
71
3 9 7 99 171
600
900
895 978
932 1,07
885
883
847
781 833
818
832
592
878
730
960 1,07
1,003
949
566
1,029
1,03 1,09
300
0
07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12
1Q0
2Q0
3Q0
4Q0
1Q0
2Q0
3Q0
4Q0
1Q0
2Q0
3Q0
4Q0
1Q1
2Q1
3Q1
4Q1
1Q1
2Q1
3Q1
4Q1
1Q1
2Q1
23
Nordea share price and book value
Nordea´s equity/shareQ4/2009: EUR 5.56
Nordea´s equity/shareQ2/2012: EUR 6.63
Sampo´s acquisition valueEUR 6.46/shareEURm 5,557
Sampo´s book valueEUR 7.40/shareEURm 6,370EURm 5,557 EURm 6,370
24
S G l• Sampo Group results• If P&C and non‐life insurance marketsM d Lif d lif i k•Mandatum Life and life insurance markets
• NordeaS di id d k• Sampo as a dividend stock
25
Sampo as a dividend stock2001‐2011 A di id d i ld 6 75%
Annual dividend yield, %Annual dividend yield, EUR
• Average dividend yield 6.75%• Cumulative dividends EUR 9.95/share
EUR
1.20
1 00
1.15 1.201.2
1.4 6.66.0 6.0 5.7
6.36
7%
0.80
1.00
0.8
1
4
5
0.4
0.6
2
3
0
0.2
2007 2008 2009 2010 20110
1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Calculated using the year‐end share price
26
Sampo and EuroSTOXX indicesTotal return since 2002
31.12.2001=100
Thank you forSampo
Thank you foryour attention!
EuroSTOXX Europe, Banks/Insurance, 50/50
Source: Reuters EcoWin
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012