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7/31/2019 UCS Report. Heat in the Heartland. 60 Years of Warming in the Midwest
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Climate Changeand Your health
Heat in the Heartland60 Years of Warming in the Midwest
7/31/2019 UCS Report. Heat in the Heartland. 60 Years of Warming in the Midwest
2/40
A U T H O R S
Elzbet Mtn Pee is a public health analyst
ormerly with the Climate & Energy Program o the
Union o Concerned Scientists.
T Sn is a climate scientist with the Climate
& Energy Program o the Union o Concerned Scientists.
Jlnne L. WteNewsme is the Kendall Science
Fellow in Climate Change & Public Health at the Union
o Concerned Scientists.
Luence S. Klksten is a research proessor in the
Department o Geography and Regional Studies at
the University o Miami.
Jenne K. Vns is a consultant or Applied
Climatologists, Inc.
Ksten We is a reelance science writer.
A c k n O w l e d g m e n T S
This report was made possible through the generous
support o the Barr Foundation, The Energy Foundation, the
Fresh Sound Foundation, The Grantham Foundation or the
Protection o the Environment, the Scherman Foundation,
The Viola Fund, and members o the Union o Concerned
Scientists.
The authors would like to express their gratitude to the many
people at UCS who provided thoughtul review o the report,
including Steven Frenkel, Angela Anderson, Kathleen Rest,
Rachel Cleetus, Brenda Ekwurzel, Peter Frumho, Heidi Moline,
Lisa Nurnberger, and Nancy Cole.
External reviewers including Claudia Tebaldi (Climate
Central), Marie S. ONeill (University o Michigan School o
Public Health), Richard B. Rood (University o Michigan), Rupa
Basu (CA Oice o Environmental Health Hazard Assessment),
George Luber, Gino Marinucci, and Paul J. Schramm also pro-
vided invaluable eedback on an earlier version o this report.
Lexi Shultz made substantial contributions to its develop-
ment, and the authors would like to thank her or her eorts.
We are greatly appreciative o Nancy Cole, Dena Adler,
Bryan Wadsworth, Sandra Hackman, and David Gerratt or
their tireless dedication to the production o the report.
Organization affiliations are for identification purposes only.The opinions expressed in this report are the sole responsibilityof the authors.
July 2012
Union o Concerned Scientists
All rights reserved
Photos: (top to bottom) iStockphoto.com/Mari; JupiterImages; iStockphoto.com/Ridoranz; iStockphoto.com/Lisa F. Young; iStockphoto.com/bowdenimages
Cover photos: (top, L to R) iStockphoto.com/Sandra L. Nicol; iStockphoto.com/agentry; iStockphoto.com/LSOphoto;(bottom, L to R) iStockphoto.com/EdStock; iStockphoto.com/gchutka;
Gary Braasch
7/31/2019 UCS Report. Heat in the Heartland. 60 Years of Warming in the Midwest
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Climate Change
and Your health
c O n T e n T S
2 Executive Summary
5 Introduction
9 How We Analyzed Summer
Weather Trends in the Midwest
10 Accounting for Urban HeatIsland Effects
11 Evaluating Daytime and
Nighttime Trends
12 Findings: The Midwest
Is Heating Up
12 Changes in Summer Weather
Patterns
14 Changes in Overnight Temperature,
Humidity, and Heat Index
16 What the Future Could Bring
17 The Impact of Dangerous
Summer Weather on Health
18 Quantifying the Health Effects
of Extreme Heat
23 Climate Change and Hot Weather
25 Building Resilient Communities
25 How Communities Can Protect
Health during Extreme Heat
27 How Midwest Cities Are
Taking Action
30 Where Do We Go from Here?
31 References
36 Endnotes
Figures
7 Figure 1: The Heat Index
8 Figure 2: Source Regions andMovements of Air Masses
11 Figure 3: Sample Heat Index Forecast
for July 21, 2011
13 Figure 4: Frequency of Moist Tropical+
Air Masses in St. Louis from 1946
to 2011
16 Figure 5: A Future with More Days
above 90F
21 Figure 6: Heat Disorders
23 Figure 7: Scorching Summers
Become the Norm24 Figure 8: Southern Weather Comes
to Illinois
Table
20 Projected Deaths Each Year from
Extreme Summertime Heat
Boxes
6 Weather 101
8 Types of Air Masses
11 Spotlight on 201113 A Closer Look at Our Trend Analysis
18 City-by-City Results
22 How Heat Affects Health
26 Tools and Programs for Adapting
to Climate Change
Heat in the Heartland60 Years of Warming in the Midwest
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2 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
Executive Summary
Sweltering summer heat is not only uncomortable
but can also be lethal. Heat is actually the biggest
weather-related killer in the United States, claiming,
on average, more lives each year than oods, light-
ning, tornadoes, and hurricanes combined. High
temperatures can lead to dehydration, heat exhaus-
tion, and heatstroke, especially among vulnerable
populations. These include the elderly, children, andpeople with preexisting medical conditions such as
cardiovascular and respiratory disease, or other
chronic diseases such as diabetes.
he summer o 2011 was a cc. all bt igt tt ptd bvvg tpt, nd tt bk cd t t. sc
ticky, ty, nctbl t i pid t bc vn cn clit . Btt, id dy nt jt nctbl. ett kill. 1999 t 2003, ttl 3,442 dt
lting p t t t ptd(CDC 2006). and t g likly t b ltn t l tll. mdicl in vy in t yty cctiz tltd dt, ti icliying t ting t c (Bnd st 2002).
hig tpt cn ld t dydtin, ttin, nd ddly ttk. Vy t t
cn l ggvt iting dicl cnditin, c dibt, pity di, kidny di, nd tdi (B 2009; mtngl t l. 2007; snzt l. 1999). ubn idnt, t ldly, cildn,gicltl k, nd ppl it ipid ltnd liitd bility pticlly cptibl ttltd illn nd dt (B 2009; oNill ndebi 2009; CDC 2008). ai plltnt c znnd pticlt tt y l k in cnct itt, cbting it lt ct (B 2009).
Dng t i nt jt t cncn.1 s71 pcnt pndnt t mc 2012 pll vt in Gn By, wI, nd Gnd rpid, mI, blivd tt t pttn in ti v cngdin cnt y (mlln Gp 2012).
Tg iginl c, nd tt t t nd t v v indd bc cn, n vg, in t ntin tlnd v tlt i dcd. In t d, ny bby bliving in t midt v ldy cd t cngding ti liti.
w cd n t midt bc it nylg ppltin cnt nd i pjctd t n inc in t v t clit (oNill ndebi 2009; ml nd bldi 2004). wit it igly
vibl clit, t midt i l n t tnitiv gin n it c t n pn tciv t.
Heat waves have become more common over the
last six decades, on average, in the ive large midwestern
cities we studied. Scientists project that this trend
will worsen over the next century.
Thinkstock
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 3
We drew on weather data rom the 1940s and 1950s to the present to determine how changes in summer heat have already aected
the more than 65 million people who live in the Midwest. We targeted fve large citiesChicago, Cincinnati, Detroit, Minneapolis, and
St. Louisto gain a deeper understanding o the local eects o extreme heat, which can inorm eorts to minimize health risks.
Cincinnati
Chicago
Minneapolis
Detroit
St. Louis
btt ndtnd t tnd c tigin, nlyzd t in v j bn nd v nby ll citi: Cicg nd Pi, IL;Cincinnti nd ld, oh; Dtit, mI; Lingtn,KY; minnpli nd rct, mN; nd st. Li
nd Clbi, mo. w ind cng in ti t pttn ing intin dtingbck t t 1940 nd 1950, n cplt digitlt cd bc vilbl in t citi.
w cd n t yt clld i :vt bdi i tt dn t t nd .w pld t t nb dy it dngly t i , ic linkd tn lt ik, ll cl, dy i cngd v t lt 60 y.
w l ind vg dyti nd nigtti tpt nd idity lvl itin t
t yt v cngd v ti. w did bc ig tpt, lck cling li t nigt,nd ig idity ll cntibt t tltd illn(Pd t l. 2005; wl 2002).
w id nt nly t ndtnd t cngd in t midt, bt l t dligt n t iptnc citylvl t t iniiz t lt ik t clit cng.
Ky nding c incld:
Dangerouslyhotsummerdaysarebecoming cn c t midt. Ti tndp ging ik pblic lt nd llbing.
Techaracteristicsofthisdangerousweather l cnging. ht i v bctt nd id ding nigtti , pl. In citi, nigtti tpt itin typ i c 4 t 5 v i dcd.
Tenumberofhot,humiddayshasincreased,n vg, c t midt inc t 1940
nd 1950, il t, dy dy v bctt. Heatwaveslastingthreedaysorlongerhavealso
bc cn v t lt i dcd.
Photos: (Chicago) iStockphoto.com/Veni; (Detroit) iStockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr; (Minneapolis) iStockphoto.com/Davel5957; (St. Louis) iStockphoto.com/Kubrak78; (Cincinnati) iStockphoto.com/Davel5957
Map: NOAA ( 2012 Google; 2012 Cnes/Spot Image; 2012 TerraMetrics)
7/31/2019 UCS Report. Heat in the Heartland. 60 Years of Warming in the Midwest
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4 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
Dangerously hot summer days are becoming more common, and summer nights hotter and more humid, across the Midwest,
on average. These trends pose growing risks to public health and well-being. (Above let: Minneapolis. Above right: Chicago.)
dy st. Li bt dng
tdy t v c y tn it did in t1940, pl. Relieffromheatishardertond.Allthecities
tdid n v cl, dy dy in t.
Whileurbanheatislandeectsplayaroleinhigheri tpt in lg idtn citi, llciti cdd iil inc in t nb t dy. Ti ggt tt ig tpt nt d lly t c ct.
implctns ou nns
T nding ggt vl iplictin pbliclt. T t typ tt v bc cn in t midtvy t, id i , ndt, dy i citd it tltdilln nd dt (Ntinl wt svic 2005;sidn nd Klktin 2004; ebi t l. 2004). Vyt, id i inc t ik yptilvtd bdy tptil t, dy i i t ik dydtin (Vn t l. 2010;eptin nd mn 2006; mii, mlci, ndCnd 1987).
ht v, ic l bcing c
n, t ct n lt (sidn nd Klktin 2010). riing vnigt tpt lpbltic, bc lck nigtti li inct ik tltd cplictin (Pd tl. 2005).
w cnnt ign t ptntil cnqnc clit cng, inclding t ik ddly t v.w t invt in pvntiv t ptctpblic lt nd v liv ding t t vnt.a ti pt , t citi tdid ldytking tp t iniiz t lt ct dng t t. hv, ny t citi till
lly nppd.w t l tk ggiv ctin t dc ttpping iin t bning il l. I d nt, tpt ill likly cntin t i(Ntinl rc Cncil 2011), nd ill vt cp it t ct t t n dilyliv, lt, nd cny dcd t c.
w nd ttgi t bt bild clitilintcniti nd dc t glbl ing iintt diving clit cng. o lt nd llbingnd t cildndpnd n it.
Without aggressive action to reduce global warming emissions, the world our children live in will most likely be
much hotter.
iStockphoto.com/jimkruger Sam Spade
iStockphot o.com/Mari iStockphot o.com/STEFANOLUNARDI
iStockphoto.com/ChristopherBernard
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 5
Introduction
In summer 2010, large portions o western Russia, including Moscow,
endured an intense heat wave thatalong with wildfres that blanketed
the city with toxic smogkilled tens o thousands o people nationwide.Continued emissions o heat-trapping gases are projected to make heat
waves more likely in the uture. Above, people wear ace masks to protect
their lungs while visiting Moscows Red Square.
he summer o 2011 was a cc. It t ttt inct in Dt Bl t 1930,it 42 tt pting bvnl t
pt, nd tt bking cd tt (Ntinl Clitic Dt Cnt 2011).
sc t int jt nctbl. et tkill. 1999 t 2003, 3,442 dt lting
p t t t ptd (CDC 2006).ht v in t cnt pt v tck t midt d. pl, t v in st. Li ndKn City, mo, in Jly 1980 cd 57 pcntnd 64 pcnt inc in dt, pctivly (Jnt l. 1982). a t v in milk tt y cntibtd t 91 dt (wikpt t l. 2002).
on t t in u.s. t v ccdin Jly 1995, n cdtting tpt gippdCicg. m tn 700 dt in t city vntlly ttibtd t tt t t vnt (Plcki tl. 2001). hpitl cd 1,072 diin tnvgtly dydtin, ttk, nd ttin (snz t l. 1999).2
sc tgdy ccd gin n n vn lg clin t 2003, n t v nd lting ild in wtn ep killd ny 70,000 ppl (rbin t l. 2008). ant tt vnt in 2010 ld t n titd 55,000 dtc ri (Bipd t l. 2011).
sc tgdi cld bc cn tplnt , pcilly i ttpping iin c c vicl, p plnt, nd dttin cntin t clib. Clit dl pjcttt gin ill intn, qnt,
nd lnglting t t vnt in t cndl ti cnty (oNill nd ebi 2009; ml ndbldi 2004).
ncv tnd tt y ldy b ccing, invtigtd t t nb dnglyt dy ll cl, dy dy cngd v ti in v lg idtn citind v ll citi v t pt i dcd. wcd n t midt bc it nj ppltin cnt, nd i pjctd t c
t v t clit (oNill nd ebi 2009;ml nd bldi 2004).
Ti pt pnt t lt iginl c. w did nt dign tdy t dtint t tnd nd t ncdclit cng. hv, t lt t 10 citi cn in t t cp it t lt ik t clit cng. d tt nd, l ind t t v lg idtn citi ldyding t pp dng t vnt.
Heat waves in the recent past
have struck the Midwest hard. Such
weather isnt just uncomortable
extreme heat kills.
JohnRichter
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6 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
Wt is Wete?Weather is the short-term state o the lower atmo-
sphere, or tropospherethe air mass that surrounds
us. Weather includes day-to-day temperature, precipi-
tation, wind, and cloud cover. Climate, in contrast, reers
to average atmospheric conditions over decades or
longer (NASA 2005).
Wt is het Wve?The National Weather Service usually deines heat
waves as periods o abnormally and uncomortably
hot and unusually humid weather (National Weather
Service 2009a).The weather service issues heat advisories and ex-
cessive heat warnings when predicting unusual periods
o hot weather.
However, there is no universal deinition or heat
wave: it typically relects not only weather patterns but
also a populations ability to cope with a temperature
spike. What people might call a heat wave in New Eng-
land, or instance, probably would not qualiy as such
in sizzling southern Arizona.
Wt is te het inex?The heat index describes how hot it really eels, given
relative humidity as well as air temperature. I the air
temperature is 96F and the relative humidity is 65 per-
cent, the heat index is an oppressive 121F (Figure 1)
(National Weather Service 2012a).
Relative humidity is the amount o water vapor in
the air at a certain temperature, compared with how
much the air could hold at that temperature (National
Weather Service 2009b). When humidity is very high,
perspiration does not evaporate, and the human body
gets little, i any, relie rom the heat (Hajat, OConnor,
and Kosatsky 2010).
Weather 101
Wt is dew Pnt Tempetue?Dew point is a measure o atmospheric moisture:
a higher dew point indicates that more moisture ispresent in the air. The dew point temperature is the
level to which air must cool to become saturated with
moisture, at which point it condenses on suraces
(National Weather Service 2009). Dew point tempera-
ture is amiliar to anyone who has seen temperatures
all overnight to the point where dew orms on leaves
and car windows.
Wt is n a Mss?An air mass is a large volume o airusually hundreds
to thousands o miles acrosswith similar tempera-
ture and humidity levels throughout. Air masses
tend to take on the characteristics o the areas where
they orm. However, their properties can change as
they move across areas with dierent surace condi-
tions (Figure 2, p. 8) (National Weather Service 2010;
Ritter 2010).
For example, a moist tropical air mass is hotter and
more humid in the southeastern United States, nearer
its source region, than it is in the northeastern United
States (see box, p. 8). A moist tropical air mass is simi-
larly warmer at all locations in July than it is in January
(Sheridan 2002). This report ocuses on air masses typ-ically associated with Midwest summer heat waves.
The heat index describes how hot it really eels,
given relative humidity and temperature. When humidity
is very high, perspiration does not evaporate and
the body gets little relie rom the heat.
JupiterImages
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 7
The heat index
describes how
hot it eels, given
relative humidity
as well as air
temperature. When
humidity is very
high, perspiration
does not evaporate,
and the human
body gets little,
i any, relie rom
the heat. Hot
air masses have
become hotter and
more humid during
nighttime hours
over the last six
decades in the
Midwesta recipeor a rising heat
index.
igUrE 1. Te het inex
Airtemperature(F)
Relative humidity (%)
F 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
110 136
108 130 137
106 124 130 137
104 119 124 131 137
102 114 119 124 130 137
100 109 114 118 124 129 136
98 105 109 113 117 123 126 131
96 101 104 108 112 116 121 126 132
94 97 100 102 106 108 114 119 124 129 136
92 94 96 99 101 105 108 112 116 121 126 131
90 91 93 95 97 100 103 105 109 113 117 122 127 132
88 88 89 91 93 95 98 100 103 106 110 113 117 121
86 85 87 88 89 91 93 95 97 100 102 105 108 112
84 83 84 85 86 88 89 90 92 94 96 98 100 103
82 81 82 83 84 84 85 86 88 89 90 91 93 95
80 80 80 81 81 82 82 83 84 84 85 86 86 87
The inamous
Chicago heat
wave o July 1995,
which blanketed
the city in swelter-
ing smog, led to
more than 700
deaths and 1,072hospital admissions.
Scien-tists project
that such lethal heat
waves will become
more common
unless we take
strong immediate
steps to reduce our
global warming
emissions.
GaryBraasch
7/31/2019 UCS Report. Heat in the Heartland. 60 Years of Warming in the Midwest
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8 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
d PlThis type o air mass, with cold and dry air, usually
maintains the lowest temperatures and humidity along
with clear skies. Dry polar air masses usually advance
into the Midwest rom northern regions such as Canada,
on a north, northwest, or northeast wind.
d MeteThis type o air mass usually has milder temperatures than
dry polar yet is still dry (low humidity). Dry moderate
air can occur when another type o air mass traverses
dry land.
Types o Air Masses
d TpclThis type o air mass is associated with the hottest yet
very dry conditions, with very clear skies. It is common
in large continental areas lacking water bodies.
Dry tropical air masses can advance into the
Midwest rom desert regions in the U.S. Southwest
and Mexico, or beneath high-pressure weather systems.
O all the types o air masses cited here, dry tropical
days occur least requently in the Midwest.
Mst PlTypical conditions are cloudy, humid, and cool, some-
times with light precipitation. Moist polar air is presentwhen an air mass has recently moved in rom a cool
ocean or large lake. In the Midwest, dry polar air
lowing over the Great Lakes can pick up moisture and
turn into a moist polar air mass.
Mst MeteThis type o air mass is considerably warmer and more
humid than moist polar. Conditions tend to be cloudy
and overcast, with light precipitation. It can occur
when warm air meets cool air just north o a warm
ront, creating moderate conditions.
Mst TpclThis is the warmest and most humid type o air mass,
and thus creates the most discomort. In the Midwest,
it is commonly transported rom the tropical Atlantic
and the Gul o Mexico, or occurs ater a warm ront
passes.
Mst Tpcl+The most oppressive subset o moist tropical air, this
air mass is most oten associated with heat-related
mortality. It is present when both morning and ater-noon temperatures are above the mean on a moist
tropical day.An air mass is a vast body o air overhead thatdefnes the weather around us. It can extend or
hundreds or thousands o miles, and has similar
temperature and humidity properties throughout.
The arrows indicate common movements o air
masses rom their source regions. The moist tropical
(MT) and dry tropical (DT) air masses are most
associated with increased health risks.
MPdP
MP
dTMT
MT
igUrE 2. Suce rens n Mvements a Msses
Thinkstock
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 9
How We Analyzed Summer WeatherTrends in the Midwest
Much can change in 60 years, including weather. We analyzed some 60 year
o data on summer weather in fve large midwestern cities: Chicago, Cincin
Detroit, Minneapolis, and St. Louis. We ound that the types o hot weather
undermine human health (dry tropical and moist tropical+) have become m
common, on average. Meanwhile cool, dry summer days (dry polar), which
oten bring rereshing relie rom summer heat, are becoming less common
o uNDersaND ChaNGes IN
t pttn nd t igt b divingt cng, cd n t yt knn i ( wt
101). By vlting i intd iplytpt, bl t pvid dtild
pict t cng in t pttn tt vctlly bn pincd by midtn v tlt 60 y.
w nlyzd 60 y dt n i in v lg idtn citi: Cicg, Cincinnti,Dtit, minnpli, nd st. Li. w c tciti t pnt bt t ntn nd tnmidt, nd t ct piity t t Gt Lk ll cntinntl lctin.
w l nlyzd intin n i in vll citi itin 150 il t lg citi, tdtin t bn t ilnd ct plying ignicnt l in ny tpt tnd. Tll citi inclddPi, IL (pid it Cicg),Lingtn, KY (Cincinnti), ld, oh (Dtit),rct, mN (minnpli), nd Clbi, mo(st. Li).3 Bc i cv ndd vntnd q il, c ll lcl t iil t tt it lg cntpt.4
w btind ti intin t NtinlClitic Dt Cnt, cplt digitl cdbgin t dint y dint citi: 1948 Cicg, 1948 Cincinnti, 1959 Dtit, 1945 minnpli, nd 1946 st. Li. w nlyzd
t cd tg 2011. Incpting ll t vibl, d llknn t dl, t ptilynptic clictin ssC, t cliy c dyt int n i typ i (Gn tl. 2011; sidn nd Dlny 2003; sidn 2002).6
w tn cd nlyi n t typ i: vy t nd id (n t bt ittpicl knn it tpicl+), t nd dy (dytpicl), nd cl nd dy (dy pl). T dy tpicl nd it tpicl+ i t iptnt n lt, ty linkd t gt ik
Dry tropical (hot and dry)
and moist tropical+ (very hot
and humid) air masses
are linked to a greater risk
o heat-related deaths.
wit c n t t, liitd tdy pid t Jn, Jly, nd agt. w nlyzddt n tnn nd nigtti i nd d pinttpt, i p, cld cv, nd indvlcity btind nd cdd t n ipt tttin p city.5 pt d py tt dyti nd nigtti p.
EnvironmentalProtectionAgency/JohnH
.White
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10 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
Urban centers tend to be hotter than surrounding areas.
Heat absorption by paved suraces, a lack o cooling vegetation,
and intense heat-emitting activities, such as transportation
and industrial processes, combine to produce the urban heat
island eect.
To determine whether heat trends simply reected urban heat island eects, we collected data on fve
small cities at least 10 miles rom the fve larger cities. Although there were some dierences between
large and small cities, several common patterns emerged, suggesting a contribution rom regional
climate change, not simply urban heat island eects.
tltd dt (Ntinl wt svic 2005;ebi t l. 2004; sidn nd Klktin 2004).
T qncy givn typ i t nb dy tt it i pntvi in c city y t y. eining t 60y cd lld t tnd v ti.
w l ntd t dtin i ttc dngly t dy v bc l cn.rc n tt n vl dy ppiv t ct n lt (Klktin t l.2011). stdi v l linkd t lt t cnctiv dy lvtd tpt nd idity tgt tlity (B nd st 2002).
vlt t t dng t v, invtigtd t tdylng n vy
t, id (it tpicl+) nd t, dy (dytpicl) i v bc cn.7(w did nt nlyz tdylng t v t ll citi bc ti nd ccntint.)
inlly, invtigtd t c typ i bc id, pntd by d pint tpt, in c city, t gin n tnd in ltiv idity. spciclly, lkd t t 3:00 .. nd 3:00 p.. i tptnd d pint tpt (pnting dyti ndnigtti vl) c typ i ding c dy n cd.
accuntn Ubn het isln EfectsIn l , t nd t vgttin pvid dnd lp cl t i plnt l t vp. In
bn , cling vgttin i tn in t pply. ll bilding, d, nd t pvd c inciti l bb nd tin t tn d t tpn pc nd plnt li l lcl, ndciti l tt tppd t lly tgtt nigt (envinntl Ptctin agncy 2012).
a city bzzing n ctivitic tnpttin, indtil pc, nd t ptin n pplincit t (envinntl Ptctin agncy 2012b). ubn citct cnl innc ind nd ngy bptin. Tdinc in nigtti tpt btn lgcity nd it nding cn t b c 21.6 (ok 1988). w pid c lg city it nby ll cityt lp ditingi btn bn t ilnd ctnd t c tnd in tpt nd idity.
RasidelSlika
Thinkstock
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 11
w nd tt i lg city d ing tndtt nt ppnt in t ll city, tt tnd likly lgly d t bn t ilnd ct. Ibt t lg nd t ll city cdd iiling tnd, it likly nt d piily t t
ct.8
Evlutn dtme n Nttme Tensmny tdi tt invtigt n pndt t dt jt n ti ding tdy (andn nd Bll 2009; Dvi t l. 2003b).hv, bn t ilnd ct tngt tnigt (mcCty t l. 2010; ok 1988). and igvnigt tpt citd it tltdilln nd dt (oNill nd ebi 2009; Pdt l. 2005).
w t lkd t i tpt nd d
pint tpt t 3:00 .. nd 3:00 p.. ctyp i . ot u.s. cintit v l d tt
in the summer o 2011, the UnitedStates was hit hard with the kind ostiling heat wave that a changing
climate can bring (Figure 3).
Forty-twostatesreportedabove-
average summer temperatures,
and our states broke records or
high temperatures (National
Climatic Data Center 2011).
Heatanddroughtacrossthe
Southwest and the southern
plains caused 95 deaths and
some $12 billion in losses to
crops and livestock (National
Climatic Data Center 2012). DuringaheatwaveinJuly,the
National Weather Service issued
heat advisories and warnings
aecting some 140 million
Americans and nearly 1 million
square miles, rom the central
United States to the East Coast
(National Climatic Data Center
2011).
Spotlight on 2011
The summer o 2011 brought record-breaking heat to much o the country.
On this day in July, the heat index orecast topped 105F or much o the
Midwest. In the cities we investigated, potentially dangerous hot summer
days have become more common over the past six decades, on average.
igUrE 3. Smple het inex ecst Jul 21, 2011
ppc t vlt link btn t tptnd tlity (Dvi t l. 2003; Ci t l. 2002).
scintit v l d tt ppc t tdy linkbtn t nd lt in K, Itly, Cnd, ndCin (Bccini t l. 2011; L t l. 2010; n t l.
2004; sidn nd Klktin 2004). pl, ntdy d tpt nt t 5:00 .. nd5:00 p.. t nlyz t ltinip btn tt nd blnc pn cll in nt (Dlnynd sidn 2006).
We included temperature
data collected at 3:00 a.m.
because high overnight
temperatures are associated with
heat-related illness and death.
65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120
NOAA
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12 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
Findings: The Midwest Is Heating Up
our INVesIGaIoN uNCoVereDbl inc in dngly tt in t midt. Ppl living int gin v pincd t t
cng ding ti liti.spciclly, nd tt t i citd
it l lt ctdy tpicl nd ittpicl+v bc cn in t mid
t v t lt i dcd, n vg. ht i lting t dy lng v l bc cn, n vg. mnil cl, dy dy (dy pl) v bc l cn.
T cctitic t typ t vl cngd. wit cptin, t i v bc bt tt nd id,pticlly t nigt. ovnigt tpt ndbt typ t i pcilly t, dy iv in in ny citi. pl, n dytpicl i i pnt in st. Li, tptt 3:00 .. 4.4 ig tdy tn 66 y g.
D pint tpt nd ti ltividity v l incd ignicntly in t t citi. T vnigt t ind l n vidnc inc.
w nd dinc btn lg nd llciti, bt vl cn pttn gd ( bl).Ti tngly ggt tt t cng ncvdt ginl clit cng, nt iply bnt ilnd ct.
Cnes n Summe Wete Pttens
Very Hot, Humid Days Are Occurring More Often
nns Le CtesVy t, id i (it tpicl+) pp tb c cn tdy tn in t 1940. Cincinnti, Dtit, nd st. Li ignicnt incin t nb it tpicl+ dy c ,vn tg t t i in ncn. pl, st. Li n tic nyvy t, id dy (it tpicl+) it did in tlt 1940, n vg.
nns Smll Ctes
T nb dy c vy t, id(it tpicl+) t yt in ll v llciti. T inc ttiticlly ignicnt int citi: Lingtn, Pi, nd ld. In Lingtn, pl, t nb it tpicl+ dy tn dbld, bt t ding typicl t t bginning t tdy pid t bt
v c in t t cnt dcd.
Very Hot, Dry Days Are Also BecomingMore Common
nns Le Ctes
Cng in t nb dy it t, dy (dytpicl) i t l cnitntc t v lg citi. Dy tpicl dy bc cn in Cicg, Dtit, nd minnpli,bt ti inc ttiticlly ignicnt nly inDtit. In st. Li, t qncy dy tpicldy cngd littl, il Cincinnti pincd
ligt dp.
nns Smll Ctes
T nb dy it t, dy t yt (dytpicl) d inc in t ll citi, btt tnd nt ni ttiticlly ignicnt.In ct, t qncy dy tpicl i in rct ctlly dclind t ignicnt t. hv,vll tnd ggt it di t idi in t ll citiiil t t nd in t lg citi.
Heat Waves Are Occurring More Often
Tdylng ttc t i lccing c tn. st. Li, pl,cdd n vg t tdylng n it tpicl+ nd dy tpicl i nnlly in t 1940. Tt nb inc tndbld, t n vg vn c t v cy tdy.
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 13
our analysis allows us to see changes in each variable over time, giving us a trend line, or slope. In
our study, the y-axis represents either the number o days each summer that an air mass occurs,
or the temperature within that type o air mass. The x-axis represents time, in years. The slope o the
line can tell us how much the number o days or temperature is changing over time. By multiplying
the slope by the total number o years, we end up with a value that signiies the change or the entire
period.
A common statistical measure known as the p-value indicates whether a trend is statistically
signiicant. A p-value o less than 0.05 is usually considered statistically signiicant. Such a p-value
indicates that there is less than a 5 percent likelihood that a trend is due to chanceand thereore that
there is a 95 percent likelihood that the trend relects the actor we are investigating (Ambaum 2010).
Trends with p-values rom 0.05 to 0.1 are not considered statistically signiicant. However, such
p-values indicate that there is less than a 10 percent chance that a reported trend is random, so we
consider such trends important.Figure 4 depicts an example rom our indings: the number o days each summer that a moist
tropical+ air mass was present over St. Louis rom 1946 to 2011. The strong positive slope indicates an
overall increase in the number o such daysabout nine over the study period. With a p-value o
0.000 (less than 0.05), this increase is statistically signiicant.9 The ull results or all 10 cities can be
ound in the online technical appendix.
A Closer Look at Our Trend Analysis
p=0.000
igUrE 4. equenc Mst Tpcl+ a Msses n St. Lus m 1946 t 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Airmassfrequency(daysper
summer)
1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 2006
Year
St. Louis experienced an average o three annual
three-day-or-longer runs o dangerously hot air masses
in the 1940s. That number has more than doubled,
to an average o seven such heat waves today.
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14 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
Our investigation uncovered
measurable increases in dangerously
hot weather in the Midwest.
People living in the region have
experienced these weather changes
during their lietimes.
The Number of Cool Summer Days Is Declining
nns Le CtesT incidnc cl, dy (dy pl) i ll v ti in ll v lg citi. and in vy citycpt Cincinnti, tt dc ttiticllyignicnt. In Cicg, intnc, t nb dy pl dy c y dppd by n dy vydcd, 40 pcnt vll dp in t nb c dy nnlly 1948 t tdy. and t ylyqncy dy pl dy in Dtit dppd tn t c dcd, t city n vg 10.5 cl, dy dy c tn in 1959. wit
Cool, dry summer air masses have become less requent in both small and large
cities in the Midwest. In Toledo, home o the Mud Hens, a Detroit Tigers arm team,
the number o days with such weather declined rom about 12 per typical summer
in the 1940s and 1950s to about three in 2010. These cooler days used to be a
welcome and rereshing respite rom summer heat.
cl dy n t clnd, idntpinc l li t t.
nns Smll Ctes
Cl, dy (dy pl) i bc lcn in ll t ll citi cpt rct. Inld, t nb dy pl dy dclind bt 12 p typicl in t 1940 nd 1950t bt t in 2010.
Cnes n ovent Tempetue,humt, n het inex
Overnight Temperatures Are Rising
nns Le Ctesovnigt (3:00 ..) tpt d c tng tnd tn tnn (3:00 p..) tpt. Int lg citi, tnn tpt citdit givn typ i did nt i c vti, nd cld ligtly. ovnigt tpt, in cntt, incd ntbly.
In Dtit nd st. Li, dy pl, dy tpicl, ndit tpicl+ i ll d, nd t inc ttiticlly ignicnt. In t vciti, t ldy vy t nd id it tpicl+
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 15
i bc ignicntly . T nly cptin ccd in Cincinnti, , n tt ncl, tpt ll t i cngdlittl, in bt t tnn nd vnigt.
s citi kd tnd in vnigt t
pt. pl, in Dtit, vg vnigttpt n t, dy (dy tpicl) dy d4.3 v 52y pid. and Dtit nt niltd pl. In st. Li, vg vnigt dytpicl tpt bt 4.4.
ovnigt inc it tpicl+ i t ll bt till ntbl, givn tt ti typ t ldy t t vnigt tpt. ec city cpt Cincinnti d ttiticllyignicnt inc in it tpicl+ vnigt tpt: 1.7 in Cicg, 2.1 in Dtit, 1.6 inminnpli, nd 2.1 in st. Li.
wt , dinc btn dyti ndnigtti tpt pp t b ning in tciti. Ti tnd y b iptnt in ndtndingt ipct ig t n n lt, bt nnd in t t, lck nigtti t li bn linkd t inc in tltd illn (oNillnd ebi 2009; Pd t l. 2005).
nns Smll Ctesa in t lg citi, nigtti i in t llciti v gnlly bc tt v ti. ovll,vy t nd id (it tpicl+), t nd dy (dytpicl), nd cl nd dy (dy pl) i in t
ll citi d ntbly in t nigtti, bt ntin t tnn.
In Clbi, vnigt tpt tcl dy pl nd t tt dy tpicl i .In Lingtn, Pi, nd ld, vnigt tpt incd ll t i . s tinc izbl. In Clbi, t ipt i in n gicltl gin ll tid t city,vg vnigt tpt ding dy tpiclt 3.7 v 66 y.
Nighttime Dew Point Temperatures Are Rising
nns Le Ctes
ovnigt d pint tpt t i tndd t inc v ti. pl, Dtit ndminnpli bt n inc in vnigt dpint tpt it tpicl+ i . Inst. Li, vnigt d pint tpt dytpicl t by tn 7. Tt cngcntibtd t ntbl i in vnigt ltividity ding c t, 63 t 71 pcntn vg.
a it tpt tnd, tnn d pinttpt did nt cng ignicntly v ti.T cptin n inc in t d pinttpt dy tpicl t in st. Li,nd dc in t d pint tpt dy
tpicl t in Dtit.I t it cntnt dy tpicl i
inc, y c t tld int t ittpicl ctgy. Ti cn cc i i, iccn ld t vp, bc cn.10
I dy tpicl i bcing it, iing d pint tpt ggt, tn ittpicl+ dy ld bc cn, t tpn dy tpicl dy. Tt y plin yt qncy it tpicl+ i i iing pidly tn tt t typ i ,nd y dy tpicl i bcing ligtly
l cn.
nns Smll Ctes
a in lg citi, t it cntnt nigtti i in ll citi gnlly incd inc t1940 nd 1950. In ld, vnigt d pint tpt dy tpicl i bt 5 v gly 55y pid, il vnigt i tpt by bt 3.8. T cng cpnd tn inc in vnigt ltiv idity 3.5 pcnt in t typiclly dy i .
Very hot, humid weather increases the risk o hyperthermia
elevated body temperaturewhich can result in disability or death.
When humidity is very high, body sweat does not evaporate, and
people obtain little or no relie rom the heat. In St. Louis, or
example (shown above at the citys Gateway bus and train station),
overnight relative humidity under dry tropical air masses rose rom
63 percent to 71 percent rom 1946 to today, reducing nighttime
relie rom extreme heat.
RebeccaKoenig
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16 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
The Heat Index Also Risespt nd ltiv idity bt ct tt ind, t t i ctlly l. invtigt ti , vltd cng int vnigt t indic Cicg nd st. Li n
vy t, id (it tpicl+) nd t, dy (dytpicl) dy.
In Cicg, t vg t ind 2.6 nit tpicl+ dy, nd 0.1 n dy tpicl dy.In st. Li, t vg t ind 3.8 n ittpicl+ dy, nd 4.4 n dy tpicl dy.
T izbl inc cld ct ppl lt.In st. Li, t n vnigt t ind vgn 80 bt typ t i , dinglittl t li. scintit v linkd bt ig nigtti tpt nd ig ltiv idity t inc in tltd illn nd dt (oNill nd
ebi 2009; Pd t l. 2005).
Wt te utue Cul BnI glbl ing iin cntin t ti cntpc, t midt cld c vn tt .11an li uCs pt pjctd ny dy ittpt bv 90 nd 100 t citi in tdy cld c nd ti cni (uCs 2009). pl, Cicg cld tn 70 dy ittpt bv 90 c y td t nd
ti cnty, n vg (ig 5). und liin cni, nd t dt glblnd ginl ing, t nb c dy lddp by l.
scintit l pct t nb dngly t
dy v 100 in Cicg t inc dticllynd t igiin cni, pdcing nt c dy. Ty l pjct vg tpt t i tn 3 v t nt vl dcd, nd by n tdiny 13 td tnd t cnty. und liin cni,tt inc ld dp by l.
all t citi in tdy cn pct t t nb t dy c y i v t cing cnty. pl, st. Li ill c tn 100 dyc y bv 90 by t nd t cnty nd igiin cni, ccding t t uCs
pt. Ti nb dp t ligtly tn 60dy nd liin cniigligtingt iptnc t cic k.
ot dng t ggt iil t t midt. pl, t viil t tt in ep in 2003, ic clidtnd liv, cld cc vy t y int midt by t nd cnty nd igiin cni (usGCrP 2009).12
A previous UCS analysis considered two possible utures: one with ewer heat-trapping
emissions, and one with more. Under a high-emissions scenario, midwestern cities such
as Chicago will ace many more summer days above 90F. The number o such days is also
projected to rise across the region under a lower-emissions scenario, but less markedly
(Union o Concerned Scientists 2009a).
igUrE 5. a utue wt Me ds bve 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
020102039 20402069 2070209919611990
Daysperyearover90F
Days over 100F
19611990 20702099
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 17
The Impact o Dangerous SummerWeather on Health
Heat poses more risk or the elderly and the immobile, especially i they already have diabetes, respiratory disease, kidney
disease, or heart disease. Many elderly people try to endure heat waves in unsae conditions without ully understanding theirdangers. As the U.S. population ages, heat-related illnesses and deaths are expected to become more prevalent. Extreme heat
also poses a particular danger to athletes and outdoor workers, who may disregard warnings about heat-related illness.
hIGh emPeraures aND hu-idity lvl p i tt t pbliclt. Vy t, id t inct ik yptilvtd bdy
tptnd t, dy t i t ik dydtin (Vn t l. 2010; eptin nd mn2006; mii, mlci, nd Cnd 1987). Tipct t n ppl llbing dpnd n ti
p t ig tpt plngd pid intn t, ti ndlying lt, nd ti cnic nd cil vlnbility, ll cti gin invtd in t lp idntcp it t.
s gp pcilly vlnbl t t dng t t. ht i pticl zd ppl pyiclly ctiv, inclding bt ind k it inil cc t cling yt nd tdk (hnn t l. 2011). Ppl ply tdpt l t ik n t tpt clib.
ht t i c likly t cc in tivtdnd lit tlt digd t ning t tinnd cpt (Vn t l. 2012).
T ldly l t gt ik tltdlt cplictin (B, Dinici, nd st2005; Diz t l. 2002). old individl t igik ptly bc t t cn ggvt itingdicl cnditin c dibt, pity di,
kidny di, nd t di (mtngl t l.2007; snz t l. 1999).
T u.s. idnt v g 65 i clibing, gly 13 pcnt tdy t pdictd 20 pcnt by 2030. a t ppltin g, cn pct tltd illn nd vn dt (oNillnd ebi 2009). on tdy tlity t vin st. Li t 1930 tg t 1960 ndtt ppl gd 40 t 80 d t gtt ik dying in 1936 t v. Ding 1966 t v,
iStockphoto.com/agentry iStockphoto.c
C O N T I N U E D O N P . 2 0
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18 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
City-by-CityResults
Cc,iL
19482011(63 years)
dett,Mi
19592011(52 years)
Mnnepls,MN
19452011(66 years)
St. Lus,Mo
19462011
(65 years)
Cncnnt,oh
19482011
(63 years)
d a i Ly S U M M E r W E a T h E r T r E N d S
Very hot, humid days and hot, dry days are
both dangerous to human health, while cool, dry daysbring relie rom the summer heat and humidity.
Very Hot,
Humid Days
Hot,
Dry Days
Cool,
Dry Days
N i g h T T i M E S U
High nighttime tem
bring no relie romhe
Temperature and Humidity in Very Hot, Humid Nig
Temperature Dew
In this chart we identifed statistically signifcant values at*p
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 19
a T h E r T r E N d S
igh relative humidity
ng people at risk ors and death.
perature and Humidity Changesin Hot, Dry Nights
ThrEE-dayhEaT WaVE TrEN dS
Three consecutive days o highheat and humidity can increaseheat-related illness and death.
Average Increase in Heat Waves
Harmul to Human Healthmperature Dew Point
cese2.6
incese2.8
cese*4.3
incese1
ecese0.8
decese1.4
cese*4.4
incese*7.7
cese0.6
decese1.1
incese1 pe e
incese2 pe e
incese1 pe e
incese*4 pe e
> 3
W h a T T h E U T U r E M i g h T L o o K L i K E
Assuming current carbon emissions trends continue(equivalent to the higher-emissions scenario), the Midwest will
likely ace scorching summer days with temperatures thatsoar above 90Fand even 100Flate in this century.
I carbon emissions are signicantly curtailed (lower-emissions
scenario), ar ewer summer days will be extremely hot.
The data or this section were compiled rom other sources. This reports originalresearch does not include projections o potential uture climate changes.
n 1 n Cuent n LweEmssns Scen n heEmssns Scen
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
020102039 20402069 2070209919611990
Daysperyearover90F
Days over 100F
19611990 20702099
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 21
Clnt 2010). hv, c tn itpt nd ltiv idity lvl, d pinttpt, n indict t t (B ndst 2002).
Heat-Related Mortalityevlting tltd tlity i cllnging. Tad hc Citt t Ntinl acitin mdicl ein cnd ttibting dtt ttk ypti i bdy tpt t lt 105 t t ti dt, t dcd p
n d cng in ntl tt nd d lvtdlvl liv nd cl nzy (Dng t l. 1997).
hv, dpit ti cndtin, intn pt cdivcl, pity, nd cbvcl di t ndlying c dt vnn t n iptnt cntibting ct (Bnd st 2002). a c tdy lg btnt vnt nd dt y l cc, t cplicting clictin dt (mtin t l. 2011;andn nd Bll 2009; B nd st 2002).
I cnt t ttpping iin cntin, t Cnt Di Cntl (CDC) pdict
tt nnl tltd dt ill c 3,000 t5,000 by 2050 (CDC 2009). (Note: Te CDC basesthese projections on the A1FI scenario or heat-trappingemissions o the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.)Ppl in t ntnt citi, nt cclitd t dtic inc in i tpt, vlnbl t t t (Ci 2002).Ppl living in tt glly ig ti tpt, nd t liv cl t tqt, lly btt bl t ittnd ig t(hjt nd Ktky 2010).
Heat-Related Illnesseshtltd illn cc lng pct, ltivly in t t ptntilly ddly ttk (ig 6). Ppl tltd illn nt bdy nl tpt cntl yt i nbl t ctivly glt it intnl tpt(Bc nd Kncl 2002).
ht cp, t tin, nd ttk t cnditin t likly t nd ppl t t gncy n tpt i. ht cp
cc n vy ting nd t intk pt tbdy lt blnc, cing cping t cl int lg, , nd bdn. ht tin cp ting, n, nd cnin, ltg iti ild tn ttk, nd i typiclly citdit c bdy tpt 98.6 t 104.altg t ypt cn b ling, ttin i nt ncily li ttning nl itpg (Glz 2005).
ht tin cn ti pg t ttk. m cnly, ttk c n ddnly,
Heat index Possible heat disorders for people in higher-risk groups
Exteme dne
130F or higher Heatstroke/sunstroke highly likely with continued exposure.
dne
105F to 130F Sunstroke, heat cramps, or heat exhaustion likely, and heatstroke
possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.
Exteme Cutn
90F to 105F Sunstroke, heat cramps, and heat exhaustion possible with
prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.
Cutn
80F to 90F Fatigue possible with prolonged exposure and/or physical activity.
Source: National Weather Service, online at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/brochures/heat_wave.shtml.
igUrE 6. het dses
The heat index
describes how
hot it really eels,
given relativehumidity as well
as air temperature.
As the heat index
rises, so does the
risk o heat-related
illness and death.
The share o U.S. residents over
age 65 is climbing, rom roughly
13 percent today to a predicted
20 percent by 2030. As the
population ages, we can expect
more heat-related illnesses
and even deaths.
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22 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
When the air temperature climbs above
body temperature and humidity is high,
the bodys cooling mechanisms become
less eective. The resulting symptoms
include those shown here.
Head
Symptoms o heat exhaustion can
include headache, dizziness, irritability,atigue, and loss o coordination.
Hallmarks o heatstrokea medicalemergencyinclude marked changes
in mental status, such as conusion,delirium, irritability, loss o conscious-
ness, and seizures.
Mouth
Increased thirst, dry mouth, andother symptoms such as weakness
and nausea oten signal dehydrationa loss o water or salts because o heavy
sweating or inadequate uid intake.
I let untreated, dehydration canlead to serious health eects.
Heart
Your heart has to work
harder to keep your body
rom overheating whenoutside temperatures rise.
Tachycardia (rapid heartbeat)can occur with heat exhaus-
tion, and cardiac arrhythmias
(abnormal or irregular heartrhythms) can occur with heat-
stroke. Patients with a historyo cardiovascular disease and
high blood pressure are at
greater risk o hospitalizationduring heat waves.
Lungs
Asthma, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease, and otherrespiratory diseases can worsen
when temperatures spike. Peoplewith pneumonia and inuenza
are also at greater risk o hospital-ization during a heat wave.
Kidneys
Heatstroke can leadto kidney ailure.
Liver
Heatstroke can injurethe liver.
Arms and Legs
Heat cramps can cause
painul muscle spasmsand cramping in the
arms, shoulders, andlegs.
Skin
Heat rashalso called
prickly heat, or miliariaoccurs when sweat ducts
become blocked. It is mostcommon in babies, and in
hot, humid environments.
Flushed, pale, or clammyskin and prouse sweating
can be signs o heatexhaustion.
Source: Becker and Steward 2011; Glazer 2005;Lugo-Amador, Rothenhaus, and Mouyer 2004;Semenza et al. 1999.
How Heat Afects Health
Illustration:AmandaWait&AnnieBissett/Nonproftdesign.com
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 23
itt t ning ign t tin. Btn tt it tt, ttk i n gncy.at plngd p t t t, t bdycn cpltly tp ting. unbl t cl itltg ppitin, t bdy c tpt cn
clib bv 105. Bld p dp nd plpd p. witt gncy ttnt, ti dngly lvtd bdy tpt ld t nzy lnctin, gn dg, nd dt (stnill 1972).
ct bynd t dict pyicl ct igtpt cn inc t ik tltdilln. Nigtti tpt n c ct.wn tpt in ig int t nigt, pplv n li t dyti t nd tgt ik tltd illn nd dt (oNillnd ebi 2009; Pd t l. 2005).
ozn l inc t ik tltd lt
cplictin. ozn cbt lng di c t, nd cn c bting difclti vn inlty ppl (uCs 2011; It, D Ln, nd Lippn2005; Cdy t l. 1992). ozn plltin i pctd ti lng it tpt v c t unitdstt (Jcb nd winn 2009).
Clmte Cne n ht Weteavg u.s. tpt v ldy incd by2 v t pt 50 y cbn diid nd tttpping iin v ccltd in ttp. and ty pjctd t i nt7 t 11 by t nd ti cnty nd igcbniin cni, nd 4 t 6.5 nd liin cni. T inc likly t
ct t, cyt, nd pblic lt kdly(Kl, mlill, nd Ptn 2009).
ec n dcd inc t 1970 bn tttn t lt, it 2000 t 2010 t ttt n cd (andt 2010; Nasa 2010). In t 1950, cd
l tpt jt likly t cc cdig. Ding t lt 10 y, in cntt, t unitdstt pincd tic ny cd ig cd l. By 2050, cintit pjct tt cdig ill tnb cd l by 20 t 1 (mlt l. 2009).
md nd pjctd cng in tptbynd t vg pi t ct pblic lt dictly. Ntbly, vg glbl nigtti tpt v in pidly tn vg dytitpt (Gnv, Cyn, nd Icblli 2009;alnd t l. 2006). Tt n dlling cl
lly ding t nigt, nd ppl gt l li t t.ht v, t, bcing cn. ov
t pt dcd, t nb t t vnt incd bt in t unitd stt nd nd tld (IPCC 2012; IPCC 2007). accding t u.s.gvnnt pt, igidity t v vbc bt qnt nd intn in tlt 30 t 40 y (Kl, mlill, nd Ptn 2009).
In t y t c, n ntily n t gii likly t g in ny pt t ld. InCicg, intnc, vnt iil in gnitdt t ddly 1995 t v pjctd t ccvy t y, vn i dc cbn iin (ig 7 nd 8, p. 24). I d nt cb t
igUrE 7. SccnSummes Becmete Nm
I our heat-trapping emissions
continue to rise at current rates,
summers in the Midwest are
projected to become much hotter.
Under a high-emissions (A1FI)
scenario (right), average summertemperatures are projected to
rise by more than 3F over the
next several decades, and by
an extraordinary 14F toward
the end o this century. Under
a lower-emissions (B1) scenario
(let), that increase would be
halved. (For more inormation,
see www.ucsusa.org/mwclimate.)
2070
2099
2010
2039
F above average summer temperature (19611900)
Lower-Emissions Scenario Higher-Emissions Scenario
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24 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
19611990
20102029
20402059
20802099
20402059
20802099
Higher-Emissions Scenario
Historical Baseline
Lower-Emissions Scenario
Average for Both Higher-
and Lower-Emissions Scenarios
iin, c t vnt likly t tikgly t ti c y (hy t l. 2009).
T midt i nt t nly gin t ik. In t
Ntt, pl, i cntin n pt ig ttpping iin, Btn i pjctd tc tn 60 dy v 90 c y by tnd t cnty, nd tn 20 dy v 100.and, i cntin it ig cbn iin, nytn tt pctd t v tic ny dyc y bv 90 by t nd ti cnty tt nd t tntit cnty (Kl, mlill, ndPtn 2009).13
Clit cng y ldy b cting nypct t, inclding tpt nd pcipittin, nd cing inc in t tltd
vnt c dgt nd ild. s tdi
v ttd t dtct cng in t t tt cnitnt it lngt clit cng. Dtining t c nd ct pcic intnc t
t in n ging c. Nvtl, cintit pining y t link pcict vpticlly t tt bk llticdt lgcl clit cng.
scintit invtigting t 2003 epn tv, intnc, cncldd it ig cndnctt clit cng n ctiviti d dbldt ik n t t vnt tt gnitd(sttt, stn, nd alln 2004). siilly, t tv nd mc in Jly 2010, c ndtt t nly 20 pcnt cnc tt t tv ld v ccd itt clit cng
(rt nd C 2011).
igUrE 8. Suten Wete Cmes t illns
Source: UCS 2009a.
Scientists project that
Illinois will ace hotter
temperatures and less
summer rain undercontinued climate change.
The red outlines show the
kind o southern summers
Illinois could see during
this century under a
higher-emissions (A1FI)
scenario. Analysts expect
the state to ace hotter
summers even under
a lower-emissions (B1)
scenario, as the yellow
outlines illustrate.
Ozone pollutionwhich is expected to rise along
with temperatures over much o the United Statesincreases
the risk o heat-related health complications by exacerbating
lung diseases such as asthma and causing breathing
diiculties even in healthy people.
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 25
Building Resilient Communities
Building resilience in the ace o extreme heat requires commitment and collaboration. For example, planners can reduce
the urban heat island eect by expanding green spaces such as parks and rootop gardens (Chicago, let). Ofcials can also
develop heat-response plans that include educating and checking on residents and setting up cooling centers, such as at
Detroits Farwell Recreation Center (center, during a 2010 heat wave). Residents can also take proactive steps, such as
drinking plenty o water, spending at least a ew hours a day in air conditioning, and avoiding strenuous activity.
aLarGe BoDY o sCIeNIIC eVI-dnc indict tt cbn ittd n ctiviti c bning il lnd ctting dn t i vy likly i
ing plnt tpt (IPCC 2007). a ti tdy, t dy nd t v v ldybc cn c t midt. In tt gin nd bynd, cniti t nd y t dpt
t t dng t cnditin.wil vl j citi, inclding Cicg,viplntd clit ctin pln gncypn pln t t, t ltt id i tillvy n t t cniti. a 2010 vy 70cniti c t cnty nd tt jt 30 dpg t pvnt tltd illn nd dt ding t v (oNill t l. 2010).14 mny tcniti citd lcl ldip diving tpg. Lck ind lcl ldip, lng it tg c, t likly n nycniti v ild t dvlp c pg.
altg cniti v bn l t dpt t,l tpn pln ctiv in dcing dt t v. at t 1995 Cicg t v, pl, t city dvlpd pln tt cbliv dcd tltd dt ding nt tv in 1999 (Lb nd mcGin 2008).
o c, cniti cn g nly t ptct ti idnt. ridnt t l cng tibvi t ty ding t t vnt, c by dinking plnty t, pnding t lt dy in i cnditining, nd viding dictnin, lclic bvg, nd tn ctivity(envinntl Ptctin agncy 2006). hv,c t pblic till il t cgniz t dng
t v, nd ny tik individl d nttk pctiny . ht ctin pln tt incld tc nd dctin (Lb ndmcGin 2008).
hw Cmmuntes Cn Ptect heltun Exteme hetT envinntl Ptctin agncy Excessive HeatEvents Guidebooktlin vl tp tt fcilcn tk t iniiz t lt ct c vnt(envinntl Ptctin agncy 2006). T tpincld: Communicatingthedangerofextremeheatby
ning lti pblic cc t intin nt ik nd pppit pn, tg bdct di, bit, nd tll pn lin
Establishingandfacilitatingaccesstoair-cnditind pblic lt
Photos (L to R): City o Chicago; Detroit Free Press/Andrew J. Jackson; iStockphoto.com/LSOphoto
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26 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
ederal agencies and other organizations are providingresources and developing tools and programs to helpcommunities prepare or dangerous heat events.
eel inttves The White House Climate Change Adaptation Task
Force, composed o representatives rom more than 20
ederal agencies, is developing recommendations on
how the government can strengthen its programs to
better prepare the nation or the eects o climate
change (Whitehouse.gov 2012).
The CDCs National Environmental Health Tracking
Program collects data on the health eects o multiple
hazards, rom asthma to air pollution. The CDC recently
added a component that will allow users to ind inor-
mation on climate change and health, such as tempera-
ture, heat-related death, and heat vulnerability.15 The
CDCs Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative is also
helping state and city health departments prepare or
and respond to the health eects o climate change
(CDC 2012).
The NationalWeather Service has developed a Heat/
Health Watch Warning System to alert citizens to dan-
gerous heat events up to ive days in advance.16
TheNational Weather Service irst tested the system in Phila-
delphia, then expanded it to 30 cities, and now plans to
extend it to all cities with populations o 500,000 or
more (Kalkstein 2009; National Weather Service 2005).
TheEnvironmental ProtectionAgency released itsEx-
cessive Heat EventsGuidebookin 2006 with the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Federal
Emergency Management Agency, and the CDC. The
guidebook gives public health oicials inormation on
the impact o such events so they can assess local
health risks. The guidebook also oers a menu o steps
that oicials can include in programs to respond to suchevents.
The Global Change Research Act of 1990 requires
the ederal government to produce a National Climate
Assessmenta status report on climate change science
and its eectsevery our years. The report is based on
observations across the county, and inorms eorts to
mitigate and adapt to climate change (Globalchange.
gov2012).
Tools and Programs or Adapting to Climate Change
ote Ntnl, Stte, n Lcl inttves TheGeospatialEmergencyManagementSupportSystem,
developed by researchers, integrates maps, real-time
weather data, and other inormation to help policy
makers track the local eects o climate change and
identiy populations most vulnerable to them (Hough-
ton et al. 2012).
ThenonprofitICLEILocalGovernmentsforSustainability
has developed the Climate and Air Pollution Planning Assis-
tant, a tool to help local governments identiy opportuni-
ties or reducing global warming emissions (ICLEI 2012a).
TheClimateResilientCommunitiesProgram,alsodevel-
oped by ICLEILocal Governments or Sustainability, pro-
vides real-world examples, training and networking, and
technical guidance to help local governments enhance
their ability to cope with climate change, including heat
waves (ICLEI 2012b).
TheNationalAssociationofCountyandCityHealthOffi-
cials (NACCHO) works with local governments to address
the public health eects o climate change by improv-
ing coordination and communication. NACCHO is con-
ducting one-year demonstration projects in six U.S.
states, including communities in Illinois and Minnesota
(NACCHO 2012). TheAssociationofStateandTerritorialHealthOfficialshas
developed a Climate Change Collaborative to research,
develop, and compile promising practices, success stories,
and tools to help state and territorial health agencies
mitigate and prepare or climate change.
TheResourceInnovationGroup,affiliatedwiththeCenter
or Sustainable Communities at Willamette University,
has developed guidebooks or integrating planning or cli-
mate change into the work o county, regional, and tribal
public health agencies (Resource Innovation Group 2012).
The guidebooks include Public Health and Climate Change:
A Guide for Increasing the Capacity of Local Public HealthDepartments and Ready for Change: Preparing Public Health
Agencies for the Impacts of Climate Change
TheGeorgetownClimateCenteratGeorgetownUniver-
sity has created a clearinghouse or climate action and
adaptation plans rom communities across the country.
The clearinghouse, aimed at policy makers, public health
proessionals, and urban planners, eatures plans rom
Midwest states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois
(Georgetown Climate Center 2012).
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 27
As part o the St. Louis heat-response team, Mayor
Francis Slay went door to door with other city ofcials
during the heat wave o summer 2011, checking on
residents and oering resources to help them stay
cool.
Directlyassessingand,ifneeded,interveningonbl t t gtt ik, inclding l individl, ld ppl, nd t itknn dicl cnditin
Establishingsystemstoalertpublichealthocials
bt igik individl t in ditding n t t vnt, c lit tidnt nd tlpn tlin ty cn cll
wil ll cniti cn bnt t tl ndplnning inititiv, bn nigbd niqlycptibl t t t. ofcil, bn plnn,nd citct ld k pcil t t itigtiing tpt in t nigbd, c bypnding t nt vgttin in pblic pc,dpting tndd ctiv ng nd pvingtil, nd ling glbl ing iin (h
ln t l. 2006).Clit cng ct c city nd tt in niqy, nd plicy k t b lcl pttn (Gind t l. 2010). sccl tpnpln qi cllbtin ng ny gnci ndgniztin, citypcic citi n t ik t t nd td t c idnt t t ik,nd cnictin pln. Dvlping c cpniv pln ill qi t nd nding, bt ty vitl t pping t t tpt tc (Lb nd mcGin 2008).
hw Mwest Ctes aeTkn actn
Chicago
Action PlAns And ResouRces
Cicg dvlpd n et wt optinPln, ic t ofc egncy mngnt ndCnictin vi nnlly nd pdt ndd in cdintin it t gnci.17 T plncll ng ctin ding t t vnt,inclding: Opening24-hourcoolingcenters Conductingpolicechecksofseniorsandat-risk
individl Inspectinghigh-riskbuildings(i.e.,buildings
it n i cnditining) t n tt indnd vntiltin yt pting pply
otheR initiAtives
a pt t Kp Cl Illini cpign, t tt digntd tn 120 cilitiinclding26 in Cicg cling cnt. opn 8:30 .. t 5:00 p.. mndy tg idy, tciliti idnt cl, ctbl plc t tyn t dy.18
Chicago is a national leader in
climate change preparation and
mitigation. The citys Climate
Action Plan includes many steps
to save lives in a heat emergency.
h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 27
WarrenNichols
Photo: (Chicago) iStockphoto.com/Veni
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28 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
Cincinnati
Action PlAns And ResouRces
Cincinnti d nt v n fcil t ctin pln,ltg t city tkn tp t dl it t
v: TeCincinnatiHealthDepartment(CHD)
nit dily t ct, i tlt, nd dignt t gnci.
TeCincinnatiDrugandPoisonInformationCnt l i pcil lt lt dingt t vnt.
Tecityopensrecreationcenterstoserveascling cnt ding pid civ t.
TeCHDandtheCDCstudiedtheriskfactors dt ding t v. T cnd tt ppl tking dictin nd ppl
it ntl illn pcilly vlnbl tt t (Ki t l. 2001). a lt, tChD pciclly tgtd t gp pcil tc t ding t v.
otheR initiAtives
oi d nt pibit pblic tiliti tning g lcticity n ty t l p c cling ding pid t t. hv,t tt d qi 30dy dly in tility dicnnctin, i dicl pinl cti tt tt tpld ndng n individl lt.19
Detroit
Action PlAns And ResouRces
T city divid t n pln nd ctivitibtn t Dptnt hlt nd wlln
Ptin, t ofc hlnd scity nd egncy mngnt, nd t rctin Dptnt.T aicn rd C, t slvtin ay, ndcnity vlnt lp iplnt t pln. WhentheNationalWeatherServiceidentiesan
t t vnt, t lt dptnt ndt dvii nd cdint t pning ctin nd t cling cnt.
TehealthdepartmentsAllHazardPlan,egncy mngnt egncy optinPln, nd t rctin Dptnt ptcl pning cling cnt tk ct ding
t gnci. Localmediahelppublicizethecoolingcenters
nd t c cping it t vnt.
otheR initiAtives
T mtDtit Clit Jtic k c, cpd vlnt t cdic, cil vic, nd gvnnt ct, d in 2011 t in t ik tltd illn, nd tpvid c t tik ppltin. mt cntly,Dtit wking envinntl Jtic, in ptnip it Dtit hlnd scity nd t
ntiti, d t Dtit Clit actin Cllbtiv t bild pblic n clit cngnd it ct n idnt.20
28 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
Photos: (Cincinnati) iStockphoto.com/Davel5957; (Detroit) iStockphoto.com/DenisTangneyJr
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 29
Minneapolis
Action PlAns And ResouRces
minnpli li n t et wt ann it egncy optin Pln n t Ntinl
wt svic i t dviy t ning. TecitysHeatHealthWatchwebsitepostssuch
dvii nd ning.21 Minneapolisocialsconductdoor-to-doorwell
n cck ding c vnt, nd pt lit pblic icnditind bilding byppl d nt v i cnditining in ti.22 ofcil dvlping pln pt.
TelocalDepartmentofHealthandFamilysppt k clly it rglty svicnd egncy Ppdn nd t minntDptnt hlt t lp idnt pp
t t vnt.
otheR initiAtives
und tt l, pblic tiliti cnnt tn lcticity n t Ntinl wt svic idn civ t tc, t dviy, civ tning.23
T tt l dvlpd n et ht lKit tt incld ppltinbd p tt lcl cil cn t tgt tik ppltin.24
St. Louis
Action PlAns And ResouRces
T city st. Li hlt Dptnt n et pt Pln.25a pt t pln, ni
ting bidity nd tlity, t villncpcd, nd t gniztinl cllbtin idntid.26
at t v in 1980, lcl fcil nd cnity gniztin d optin wt svivl (ows) t pvnt illn nd dt tt cld t.27 T ows nit tct nd il nd tlpn cll t ltb t ning nd dvii. T gpl pvid nd intll i cnditin dicllyndy individl.28
otheR initiAtivesT tt rdy in 3 pg lp idnt pp gncy vnt, inclding t v.29 T mii Dptnt hlt nd sni svic l cling cnt c t tt ding tt vnt.30
mii d nt pibit pblic tiliti tning g lcticity n ty t l pc cling ding pid t t.31hv, t tt d pvid gidnc t ldttnd it dicnnctin n king itnc ngy bill.32
h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 29
All communities can beneit rom specially designed tools
and planning initiatives to deal with the heat. Urban neighborhoods,
however, are uniquely susceptible to extreme heat and special
eorts are needed to protect these residents.
Photos: (Minneapolis) iStockphoto.com/Davel5957; (St. Louis) iStockphoto.com/Kubrak78
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30 U N i o N o C o N C E r N E d S C i E N T i S T S
exreme hea eVeNs BeCame intn nd cn in t mid
t v t pt i dcd. midtnv pincd t cng in tding ti liti. wil did nt dign tdy t dtin t c cng t n ctiviti, nding cnitnt it pjctd ing tnd.
a pvi uCs pt d tt t ik dngly t t in t midt i likly t g cntin t l ttpping iin ndt clit . und igiin cni,nin j citiinclding t v in ti pt pjctd t t lt 60 dy v 90 c y,nd 20 dy tpping 100, by t lt 30 y ticnty (hy t l. 2009).
scintit l pjct tt t v in Ntaic nd ep ill bc intn, qnt, nd lnglting (IPCC 2012). und liin cni, t midt cn pct t v cpbl t t dvtting 2003 epn t v vy dcd by t lt 30 y tcnty vy t y nd igiincni (hy t l. 2009).
ov t vy lng t, clit cng cldk td tpt nbblnd pibly
Where Do We Go rom Here?
A midwestern landscape (right) shows wind turbines scattered across arm felds. By shiting to renewable energy
sources like wind and dramatically limiting our use o ossil uels, we can curb some o the extreme eects o climat
change and help minimize health risks rom hot weather. The energy choices we make today will shape the world
we and our children live in tomorrow.
ltlding t ttt nt in ny pt t ld (sd nd hb 2010). T cic
k tdy ill dtin ic t cni cc.wil nlyi tt dng
i v bc cn, ti i nly n t pblic lt ik citd it glbl ing. mny pctd, inclding ningzn plltin, dgdd t qlity, tbk tbn di, bctil ndvil di tnittd by qit, tick, nd, nd dgt, d, nd ltd cp il(uCs 2011).
Lcl ppdn i citicl t ptcting pbliclt nd ving liv ding t t vnt(unin Cncnd scintit 2012). hv, l nd cpniv ntinl ttgy t ctclitilint cniti nd dc t ttpping iin tt diving clit cng.
w cn c t ignicntly l glbling iin. By iting t nbl ngyc nd dticlly liiting il l, cn vid t t t clit cng.w cn l k cicbt individl nd citytt iniiz t lt ik dngly t t.
(LtoR):iStockphoto.c
om/bow
denimages;Dori([email protected]
nfo)
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h E a T i N T h E h E a r T L a N d 31
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