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What is UFORE?= Urban Forest EffectsScience-based computer model that
quantifies urban forest structure, functions, and values
Collection of analysis toolsSpecialized analysis for urban ecosystemsMore at www.ufore.org
Overview & Process I
Overview & Process Ecosystem“Functional units of interacting abiotic, biotic, and
cultural (anthropogenic) components”Includes all trees
Public/privateNative/exotic/”utopian”
No systematic management of individuals, but we can manage the population
Population contributes to common good at much lower cost/benefit ratio than street trees
Status of UFOREFully operational as program
Over 10 years in development In SAS code at FS Syracuse
Direction: David Nowak, Project Leader Programmer: Dan Crane
Being converted to desktop app (Windows)
i-Tree 1.0: UFORE “shell” makes everything now much easier
Overview & Process
UFORE calculatesStructure, e.g.
Leaf area and biomassSpecies and DBH distribution
Function, e.g.VOC emissions Pollution removal Effect on building energy useTotal carbon stored
Value based on structure, function
Overview & Process
Sounds like STRATUM…SimilaritiesSimilar questions
Structure, function, value Implications for management
Similar goals
DifferencesDifferent populations
STRATUM: street trees UFORE: whole ecosystem
Some differences in methods, often b/c of differing populations
Overview & Process
What good is it?Aid planning and managementImprove forest designsProject future impactsAssess impact of catastrophic events Justify programs
Overview & Process
How does it work?Uses field data to calculate structureUses structure data to calculate
functionUses function data to calculate valueUses value data to draw conclusions
and make recommendations
The Devil lurks, as always, in the details
3 questions
I ask when evaluating models:Do I understand the numbers?Can I trust the numbers?Can I use the numbers?
I want to drill down one level in an effort to answer these questions, “peek under the hood”
Overview & Process VI
Let’s examine one relatively *simple* set of calculations: CARBON
Start with allometric¹ equations estimating above-ground biomass from species and DBH ¹ = relation of the growth of a part of an organism to
the growth of the whole
Convert with species-specific factor:
above-ground biomass whole tree biomass
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/ncas/reports/pubs/tr05afinal.pdf
Regression of DBH as predictor of biomass
Overview & Process VIAdjustment 80% less biomass for open-grown urban
trees than regression formulae computeBased on field measurements of 30 street trees
(1994 Chicago study)Probably due to pruning
How much of biomass is carbon?Stored C biomass x 0.5
Chow and Rolfe 1989, et al
Overview & Process VIUse growth and mortality rates for annualStart with published and/or field data for each
species and DBH classAdjust growth (C storage) for
Site (e.g., park 1.78 times less growth than street) Growing season length Condition of tree
Adjust mortality (C release) for % of condition class Rapid release (above ground, populated areas) Slow release (below ground, unpopulated areas)
Growth - Mortality net annual C storage
Overview & Process VIValueMultiply net annual stored C by
$22.80/tC Based on the estimated marginal
social costs of carbon dioxide emissions (Fankhauser, 1994).
Stochastic model provides a distribution of outcomes from which means can be calculated.
“Rough order-of-magnitude assessment”
Nature 443 (October 5, 2006)
What’s the point?!We can begin to understand and therefore trust the numbers
Because of that, we can use the numbersAdvocacy Strategic planningAction
UFORE, like STRATUM, is a powerful tool for promoting sustainable management of urban forest resource.