Review of the strategic approach to the problem

of poverty in Montenegro

Uglješa Janković, Phd

Analytic review of approaches in reduction of the poverty in Montenegro.

Presentation results of empirical research implemented in period 2000/2010.

Statistic analyze of consequences for social situation in Montenegro.

Presentation of users of social help in Montenegro.

Data: MONTENEGRO – stats (MONSTAT) and SEEPS.

POVERTY - DESINE

The World Bank and the IMF, with the initiative of the G7 group, launched a program Poverty Reduction Strategy, a new program to support over-indebted and underdeveloped countries.

As part of this program, Montenegro decided to define its strategy to decrease the poverty line. In a wide process actively participated all segments of society: Parliament, local community, social partners, International development partners, and representatives of marginalized social groups (PRSP, 2003: 1-2)

POVERTY

Period of implementation: 1. Empirical search of social polarization in

Montenegro. 2. Stratedgy for reduction of the poverty

in Montenegro (2003). 3. Stratedgy for reduction of the poverty

and social exclusion in Montenegro (2007).

POVERTY

Poverty in food Absolute poverty economy troubles

4.0 9.4 36.4

POVERTY

Poverty in 2003th in Montenegrin population according Strategy, 2003.

In Montenegro, as a measure of absolute poverty line established by the state used consumer basket for a standard household (in 2003 amounted to 116.2euro per consumer unit), a line of economically vulnerable population is set at 50% above the poverty line, 174.3euro.

Poverty

State GINNY 90/10 odnos

Bosna i Hercegovina, 2001 0.26 3.3

Albanija, 2002 0.28 3.6

Mađarska, 1997 0.28 3.5

Srbija, 2002 0.28 6.7

Slovenija, 1997/98 0.28 3.7

Crna Gora, 2002 0.29 5.8

Bugarska, 2001 0.30 4.1

Hrvatska, 1998 0.30 3.9

Makedonija,2000 0.31 4.3

Estonija, 1998 0.38 5.4

Poverty

Polarization

Number in all population

Domical people

RAE people

Izbjegla lica

Raseljena lica

Gini 0.29 0.28 0.38 0.31 0.27

Decile 7.00 6.5 15.4 7.8 5.7

Poverty

Who are the poor in Montenegro?  According to data from the final version of the

"Strategy of development and poverty reduction" absolute poverty is especially present among the RAE population (52.2%), as well as refugees (38.8%) and internally displaced persons (38.6%), while among local population, the percentage was 12.2 (2003).

Poverty

Absolute poverty in Montenegro affects a relatively small percentage of the population by 10.9%, while it ranges between 8.4 and 13.6%, where the poor are concentrated in the central and northern regions and rural areas (Strategy, 2007). 

A large part of the population is vulnerable to poverty. Regardless of how many people are poor, many more are those who are subject to shocks that will make them poor (Strategy, 2007).

It is clear that under the poverty line, according to the strategy, are the dominant members of the RAE population, refugees and displaced persons (Strategy, 2007). 

Poverty

MONSTAT:  

Poverty

Line of the poverty

 

Year

Line of the

poverty

Frequenc

y

poverty

Bias

poverty

Ginny

2006. 144,68 11,3 1,9 0,6 24,4

2007. 150,76 8,0 1,4 0,4 26,4

2008. 163,57 4,9 0,9 0,3 25,3

2009. 169,13 6,8 1,4 0,5 26,4

2010. 169,98 6,6 1,1 0,3 24,3

A) Dummy variable for the period 2003-07, with which we test whether there is a statistically significant change in the number of social assistance during the whole period from 2003 to 2007, which would could be attributed to the effectiveness of the first strategy? (b) Dummy variable for the period 2007-11, with which we test whether there is significant changes in the number of social assistance during the entire period since 2007 by 2011, which could be attributed to the effectiveness of other strategies? (c) Trend variable for the period 2003-07, with which we test whether there is a statistically significant change in trend in the number of social aid during the period from 2003 to 2007, which could be attributed to the effectiveness of the first strategy? (d) Trend variable for the period 2007-11, with which we test whether there is a statistically significant change in trend in the number of social  assistance during the period from 2007 to 2011, which could be attributed to the effectiveness of other strategies?

Dummy variable

YearUsers under the age of 18

Total Female Man

2000. 12.421 5.439 6.982

2001. 13.513 6.079 7.4342002. 15.315 6.831 8.484

2003. 15.677 6.922 8.755

2004. 17.449 7.876 9.573

2005. 18.836 8.192 10.644

2006. 19.188 8.571 10.617

2007. 22.595 10.249 12.346

2008. 27.429 13.558 13.871

2009. 26.159 12.697 13462

2010. 25.213 12.400 12.813

2011. 23.639 11.466 12.173

Conclusion

YearUsers older than age of 18

Total Female Man

2000. 19.203 9.270 9.933

2001. 23.431 10.292 13.139

2002. 25.694 11.756 13.938

2003. 25.477 12.236 13.241

2004. 29.088 13..407 15.681

2005. 26.063 12.472 13.591

2006. 26.756 13.241 13.515

2007. 27.301 13..217 14.084

2008. 28.351 14.297 14.054

2009. 28.398 14.171 14.227

2010. 28.331 14.288 14.043

2011. 28.128 14.190 13.938

Conclusion