46
aisia siacq OMLNSIOW 513aM ceTMaMIsIaqxa JASIUTAW4JJ 10 aD43aID41 3HT OMITAMITH HIDIJO IJOMHD0UM3 rbomiT ,asD 3rmA .oM 1q gnbhoW HDMAH351 DIMOMODH qO UAH$1U1 JAMOffA 3un3vA thwd3n2sM OOI 81O AM bhdmBD tQI 1xJm3U ,iM jriH ,3ninb&nuJ nidoSi uiX nnIA noinU wnA binD bivnU 01 !u13i1n is 3W bnn in3rnmo3 IuIq!311 ioI noiiu3i3eni nm in insqi3cru3q innim bnn noB nnhthrD 3IdnuInv iol 1bnd3 di3dni13 bnn I3m3ID3M di3dnilH i3Iuobn 310J inndi 3W .nO!iJ31b thiT .(IQ8OS-QRa RT4) 12M 3d3 d b,bivoiq nw noqqua 1ni3nnni1 .3MIB321a2 Ii31B331 nA .knono33 3!1du1 bn 23thw2 iodaJ ni rnnioiq dini a$13flM lo nq i iqnq 31ffl0fl033 lo us3lua InnoiisM 3di lo odi ion bnn aiodiun 3d1 lo orfi ts b23iqx3 noiniqo 01 ion ,ixi 10 &ioii flod .b,vi,i idh hA .nD 3nnA brin 3k3a 'diomiT id QQ1 © ,iib31 lull inrb b3bivolq noiJrrn3q ii3ilqx3 luofiliw b3ioup 3d nm dqniniiq owl b3x3 .3311J0 3di 01 fl3V1 i 331iOfl © fllbu13n!

uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

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Page 1: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

aisia siacq OMLNSIOW 513aM

ceTMaMIsIaqxa JASIUTAW4JJ 10 aD43aID41 3HT OMITAMITH

HIDIJO IJOMHD0UM3

rbomiT ,asD 3rmA

.oM 1q gnbhoW

HDMAH351 DIMOMODH qO UAH$1U1 JAMOffA 3un3vA thwd3n2sM OOI

81O AM bhdmBD tQI 1xJm3U

,iM jriH ,3ninb&nuJ nidoSi uiX nnIA noinU wnA binD bivnU 01 !u13i1n is 3W bnn in3rnmo3 IuIq!311 ioI noiiu3i3eni nm in insqi3cru3q innim bnn noB nnhthrD

3IdnuInv iol 1bnd3 di3dni13 bnn I3m3ID3M di3dnilH i3Iuobn 310J inndi 3W .nO!iJ31b thiT .(IQ8OS-QRa RT4) 12M 3d3 d b,bivoiq nw noqqua 1ni3nnni1 .3MIB321a2 Ii31B331 nA .knono33 3!1du1 bn 23thw2 iodaJ ni rnnioiq dini a$13flM lo nq i iqnq

31ffl0fl033 lo us3lua InnoiisM 3di lo odi ion bnn aiodiun 3d1 lo orfi ts b23iqx3 noiniqo

01 ion ,ixi 10 &ioii flod .b,vi,i idh hA .nD 3nnA brin 3k3a 'diomiT id QQ1 © ,iib31 lull inrb b3bivolq noiJrrn3q ii3ilqx3 luofiliw b3ioup 3d nm dqniniiq owl b3x3

.3311J0 3di 01 fl3V1 i 331iOfl © fllbu13n!

Page 2: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

ÔQ 13q8 nbhoW II8 1QQI idm,3U

T3MI$1HIX JA5L1JTAMMU qo D143UIDT4J 3m orirri

3IDuOq UOMHDOUT4H

TDAHTflA

no i1oq 10 111 di nirnba iol I3iin3oq isi bivoiq mtv th13bI U cfT

brw i3VO i3i1oq ni noiIBFIBv iio1qx iBdi ihu32 th3hiqrn3 uoimun T(1T .ioiv&13d

3i1oq 1a3 II .IB1In3 2i '3i3nobn3 vi1oq 10 Ui th ,nupn lo niI ifii niU1Uq flu .mi1

nth rft nifbiw noiiibno th3iii!oq bnB irnono 01 3Vfl01 ,noi1 1uboqiuq i nb&ri

no Ii nBrI3 ol 231311oq bI rrb 31o1 3d1 iol Ioflno3 bn 1iin3bi 03 V1S23fl cJ &fl ii

01 i iqq 2irli 10 miB fl' .33n3bi3n1 3iIoq B lo 1Bmii bBidnu niBido 01 arkiw

.3nbi3ni 3iIoq 3IBnE 01 aqmn.s iI1B 3inobn 3iIoq 10 noi1ino35r wocl 1Bi12vni

w rIi 31no3 W .iihnd norJB2nqmo3 'ihow -- 3x31no3 i1iq i ',thi w 3uoducnfIT

b1,11a quoi i nw13d b&n i noehaqmo3 B 5Ic1w no lam 13 Z)n5rn11ib-ffi-33fl3111th lo

Ls3iiiIoq n3cfw no lam 1 1dahsv 1a1nmin12ni dliw 1quo lollno3 a bna nark si1oq cfi d 1qfnax 3111 03 b3nilno3 3d iwm nwfth no!u13no3 duoift1A .in3rnui1ni au bzu ia !dahcv

3111 iibino 01 innnoqmi 3d \Bffl Ii 'r1w 233a1121J11i 3113 lscft 3v3i13d w briar! Ia

.1!rI3n3 1om 'li3n3obn3 xIoq lo 2noiia3ilqmi

aD ,nnA 3k3fl r11omiT ibi,i2 1anoi3aniinI iol 13in3D ,ibui2 1anoiiarntnI iol 131n3D

1ood3 no2IiW woibooW 1ood3 no1iW woibooW (1i13vinU no333nh lii3vinU no133nh

t$8O U'I noi33nhq 448O U4 noi33nhq 511ffPIbna

Page 3: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

I

26€ 1A€?6L (roi)!MJ rnpiCp ;o COWbL€ OffcCOUJ62 EO q2cnnou OpG 122J162 2IILLoflUqu IWJTLI 6xb€L!m6u42q!LGqJ? €Cçcq p? jrn CVU6 ;S1LJ GXb6L1WGUç2 JJA6 UcITL9J COIIcLOJ LOnbe6c42 onçcow tOL Iq6uçnJp iuquiqij mpo vi. ocpcLlAJ2 ow uo

JU fJII2 J1ç6LnL& UflLJ Gxb€LrIuSu z oçcu !UJbflc!cJ? q6uGq jrn cJJ8u6osicowc qnLzu O 2CJ 2L6cvx€ WVUBG2 vuq boJ;CG2 bOcGLpS (J) 2JJO2 porn eççc bo,çicvj couqi;iou ,€cç bopcA

1E°' xgwbj€ BG2JGX uq c (jp) COU2JqGL IWb9C o p€ bojiçicsj bLoc€ ou

C613GL 2çB6 A191J?. bgIJGJ gç 2çfTq62 201116 0j MJJ!CJJ L6 LGMGM6q GJOli n'O; 211TG2 cpc cr bBuGJ O 2G2 OAGL ciwG }32 WOAG 211C}1 !22fl62 ow

0L 913 Ju2cLmuGuc9J ASLIBpJG LU 911 vçç€wb

o Guqo6uGiçA uq iu 6L6L cLo-ecçiou9J 2çsTq6e ie counuouuX ITçJJOLe &po bnç boJq62 013 JJ6 LJ7ç L6 q0flpç622 UL6 o bo2-

GIJqosuGT4 IJJOLG 6IJ6LJJ?SUJ?t212 1JI-1Lç62 thpA ic W G 1wbOLçUç o bojic?.JJ6 COIJCGLU2 L9126q JJ6L6 W p6 2b6C1JC 40 6X91.IJbJG CJJO26U HOe61L JJ6201336 O cp }JGOL6C CJ91W2 ULUG LG G136LJ 1J36 LGJGA91JCG 9IJq wuçnq 0JJG JGIJ2 o bLçicnJL GXWbJ6 — t0LJC6L2 cowbGu2çou pGU6Uc2 yJcJ3o1TJJ

JJJG bb6L AJGM2 4JJ6 LGJciA6 Lu6L!ce 0 'Jj6L61Jc UCqGUCG 62c!W9cOL2 cpLonpcJJç GXbJOiç CL022-2çç6 bojic? ALWç10Lr2çVcG Jli2 92 LT11LJ 6XB6L1W6Uç2 0 6LW iUCLG02iL1J? (126 62CLI6 GXGLCI2G2bojic?. GuqoGu6JçA M6 pob€ cjouQ p6U 2 L602OU0J6 1jGLGUCG2 !L022 }J6 opJjic?. 0; JJ626 W6çjJoq q€oj oqGcfnocGJX Jcp coIJeGdflGUc6e owçjioqe (T26 113 IUCJqGUCG U0J?212 €xbjoi AOLIOçIOU 113 açç bopc) msq cou-pçou flUpo2Gq 62UJ062 o o bopc?a Jucq6uc6 JjJe bob€ couibot T[6L6Uq61 wuq COUL0J 0L 0LC62 cJJI jq bopc! c0U6 J 0136 M12J162GCOIJOIJJIC oIJq bojiçicoj couqicJoLr2 MIçJflU 4JJ6 2oç& WOX 6 U6C6220L

O1TCOIJJ62 O JUçGLGeçJ fl 26 bojicA wojciu 12 bJmboaGtiTj ocçiou LG2B0U2JAGGU1J1IJ91J2 O 2çOçG bopc JL0ç0U LJJGL6 cJJG bojci 0L6 jJGUJ26jAG2 c0J6U 02

AOLJOpJG2 I1Jq6Gq 12 0 bopcicor 6couOw? J!cGLOcJTL6 9'qqLG22Ga qG-

2çOçG jGAGJ bOjiCiG2 coil pG 2pIqlGq 92 GJJGL JG4 O. Lj3ç }JBIJq 2CJGOL G2ç1UJ0çIIJ }JG 6j6C o 0A6LIflh1G13 bOjiciGa 013 GCOIJOUJTC OJIcCoLUGe H01GLboLoJ A0L0çi013 1J j0R2 oj0LqGq p2. ;JJG fl 66L0J 22.2çGUJ jJ0j2 LG0ç boç€uçiojbopc2. A0L0ç01r ic JOUR GGZJ LGcoIJJTGqe cJJ6LG0L& cIJOI ebocioj ouqJO 62çiUJç6 €cç o bopciG2 Oil GCOIJOIU!C pGjJA!OIY 0116 1J6G2 0 20JThC6 O

F JU4LOflC4TOU

Page 4: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

3

L°1 6xwb1& CLffPGL uq AuqLvu (raa3)GG pL xwbj uq C polm (ra) uq BtecumG uq MoJbrn (ro)

boj!c!62 qG211Gq w6 62GL opcu U CJJ 2flbbol3 UNULq — Gxb6qcGqO oJqGL OWG1J U2 IJJG) }JUAG OU GGU UpOLc!OIJ LV4G2 JJGL sç UJ iiq ;oJUJ2 L€eçrJCçiu VpoI4ioU JJUA6 9Jmoac U2 JULG 011 GjGC 011 JJG opoLiOu LU162JUL6 011 6iGCI 011 iU-2çUçS 00L4O13 LUG2 08 JWM2 916 61J0LCG0pJ& ouq çpoç

uq 916 02

ID !06L çlio bob6Le1 o,TçpoLa LGboLç uqu ml6xbGcc6q LsarJc Joi. 6x-LGC6JA6q C0UçL0JpU 0L eçoç€ 6Ij6Cc2 oug XGUL IUq1CVI0L2

usvçG çJJG 9j6C 0 CJJ01J62 111 2406 cJJq 2nbboL4 3IJ q'!Jq eJlbboLç bo?mGuç221UG cpoLoCcGLJ24!ce 2ç9ç6 X6q G6Cç2 ouq ?6SL GUGCc2 ; r (ro) ac'-çimsçG ç}JG iwbocç o 2çoç VpOLciOU OIl eçoç€ OpOLcTOIJ LUG2 COIJL0JJIIJ jOL

!ueimoucG boLçopJç? ou çp bLopopflç?. o lop cpvu€ BJUUJC €ç sj (ri) -CLflPGL Vug T0qLJ0IJ (J3) G2çWUç6 çp Gj6Cç O 2ç946 S2i2 OAGLIJi1J& pGoJcJJoucs çox tçs ou w GwbJo?uJJGuç oiq 1A0LJ6L 6VLIJJIJ2 JJçJJIU cp L0UJ6li0LJCPGçIAGGU sipç açoçse OAGL çiw& ço sxbJoLs çps sscç o jtuJ nususbjo?wssuç w2m.-(j NLpO f125 ULIIJ-JGAGJ A0Li0iOU !U 0X L0çG2 qns u bot.ç ço bopc?. qisLsucsefl2iU CL022-2çOçG pcsq Gj6Cc2 G2cwJoc!Ou I3cfTq6a MOLJ pA yiiqseoij ouq AGAiGL

JJJGLG 916 WUUA ecriqis o çp€ SUGL0J jcrnq psp corqssq JJGLG jçscsuç OLJtAOLJCGL2 COUJbGIJ2UçJOU p61I6c2

cpl2 obbioocp 916 20W6.th}JUç IJJOLG 2ilpcJ& ouq 0U1IJ 6 !IIll2cLUc6 UTJ2 112!Uwpc corr2s M6 po cji9 cps cpsoisc!csJ !wbJ!csc!o112 o bojicA suqoGu6cA OLeçoçsq çpo cp btocsqi-its bLoçscçe cJJG UuoJAJ2 L0W po2 çpoç bojicA suqosusA!2 LGdnGuçJA J70!AU 02 q16LGuCs2-!u-qI6L6uCse 62c!W0O1J ic ie aomsçi.useJJ6U GaWUçGq jLOW çJJG qJjGLGUCG ILl çJJG OJ7COWG2 0L çpsea çtAO LOi1b2 B112OL o qGLGuç LouTb o rnqijqnoj çpu o 2ç0ç6 JJJJG GGC o çjs bojicA i2

cpUu6 B16 LG2GULCJJGL 0J20 26I6C2 U COULOJ Loab 6!cJJGL tLOW ocJJsL 2ç9ç62y L6oçw6uç onb !2 8GJGCcGq }IUc ! cflLGCcJA otjsccsq pA çps bopcA

6[GC 0 U bopcA ncc0m62 pscliLssu &ionb9 UL6 COIJJbULGq 60L6 UIJq 06L UpGC0IIJ6 IJCL602IIJJA bobnjoL euq UbbGBL ço 06L U CJ601I N0A 0 q611çiAILT çJJG

UCiqGIJC6 01I8JA212 (l2JIJ C0LJLOJ L0I1b2 6IJJ6L li4cJI!LI OL 0CL022 2ç0çG2 JJUAGcJJG GXSLLJbJG 0 /A0LJCGL2 CoLubsIJaoçrOu PGIJGUc2

COLTCGLIJ2 opoiic Guqo6U6icA B6J0/& 6 C0U2GL cJJG A0JqcA 0 2uICJJ U CJUJW 0Lqsçswius T6L611C62 III bopcis 9LG IUAUL!0Uc çpsu ç}J2 !IJ Uqq LGIJJOAGço COIJçLOJ 0L bGLIJJUIJGIJç q[6LGUC62 !IJ eçUçG bopcisa R JJ6 CPULUCcSLI2cJC2 cpoçCL022-2çUçG XGq 6jGCç 01JUJA22 tA}JGLG cps LG2GULCJJGL uCnqse U xsq GGCç

Page 5: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

3

(b'rer)2 °L IIUWG92i1LGq !U'" IPO6 mçji 9 J'!P JflGJipoOq o, cocçiu pGzJc2

QEIJ'°°q Uq UUG llOG pøç u ,cI.cJcvJ wboij 2çu JJ€LG W9? 69 AGLX q-

!q;pj6 Lo11b 2OflLCG o bopcA JLc!ou W112ç pG fiflA nuq€Leooqru bojicA 12 o bopc?. cjrnuG ou g

th}364J36L 0136 CmJ bnç boj!cA 011 4JJG LjJc piq eqG J U4GL2ççG ALJ-LUJ1UU2 o bopci 12 913 JuiboLç9uç bLGLGthi2içG pGu &uq

OA6L9TJ OIIL 9II9J?2i2 p1jJJ1}1ç2 1119111 122i1GW }L24 I3A6 i9ç]13 }J6 q€-IIJcIqGucG 62çIIJJ9çloIJ 92G 013 9 21119JJ 26ç 0 COULOJ 2c9IG2

J6 R9jJ GxbjoLG pGjO1 }1G GX6Uç o bojic? 6uqo6uGzc?. 91GC2JtOW6U 111 C0UL0j 29G2 0 j40LJ 9L0JU 0U11ccflc 9uq y9229Cpn2Gçç2pGL1IJ 96 113 GXbGL1UJGIJ49J 29G2 O JjGli. 6L2G? 91Jj j4GM AOLIC N9cP }J02G OD9fl92i0L M0LIJ JJGX92 CL11PGL (j1) cowb9LGe 962 o NOW613 o cpijqCfl°' 113 Li01J9 MGft jGX1C0 E1°q C€OL 9UC LG0IJ 0p?. comb9LJu CJJUU6 113 GmbjO?uJJGuç bobrrJ9çJou tço OL 661J2 U(j) G2c?UJ9cG2 1Jcq6uc6 0 913 IUCLG926 ! C9J!0LU2 UJJJ1UJ11IJJ /A96b9bGL2 ou uiunwrnii pi uiq n o cpe w€ipoq EOr. Gx9iubJ& CqJTUIjGCcGq p? CG bojic? 9LG C}1026U JI92 9J2O .91uGq bobnJ9Lç? 2GAGL9J LGCGU

D!61GucGe-Ju-qjGLGucG2 G2çIW9çIOU 113 MJJIC}3 9 2W9jj eGc 0 COULO1 2WG2C0IJL0J onb212Cf122 li9A2 113 eJJiC}J bojicA Guq06uGiç?. w9?. jGC 9q6drr9cA o icpu-eçsM0LjC6L2 90AG 9G 0 'fO vuq 2J1JjG 117613 9G 50 'fO J tA}J9ç 0jjOR2 liG liLifl

MOWGU s€q 50 'fIJ 92 6xbGI4mGuc9r Loffb Li 11262 92 C0UL0J onb20 wisqç€q UJ9çGLrnç? GU62 013 I19G2 O L0fTb2 w9LL6qMGLG uoç bL6/io112J?, [Gcç€q p? c9b CLIIPGL (jc u 2cr1q? o iwb9cçN0LJCGL2 COUJbG1J29çi0L1 9IJ 1126 92 9 C0IJL0J L01T1) JJ026 j0tiL MUG G9LUGL2 tp0

pjp R96 G9WGL2 ft}J0 MGLG bL6Aion2J?. 9jGCG pX W9XIIJJJ1UJ 6IJG c9b 013

C1J9IJG2 117 th0LJ6L2 COUJbGU29çIOU j9li2 9IJq 9jCG 92 cJJG!L oab2nb GAGL Gç j (reao) iq KlJ1GGL (JJ) G2çJUJ9çG nubvcç o

2poirq cpGA GCOLU€ 2J1JJG W0jJGL2 92 C0IJcL0j2 OL /AOUJGU po JflcGJ?.

JJJ NIOLUGU 1147026 O26LA9PJG Cp9L9Cc6u2c1c2 1JJBJCG }JGW 1iujJj6jA cojj€cç ThDC(Ta2Y po eciiq?. imbcç o M€JyL6 p6UGc2 013 0fl260J 0LLU9çi0U (12-

JJJG q6L6ucG2-iu-qGL6uc62 L9UJ6ftuOLjC 12 GXbj0Gq P3 Ell'°°q uuq B9176GXbj9JU 211C}J L6211jc2

cpjq aclbboLç 9li9Lq ye tf6 tijj qICCIIC2 p€joi& bopcA G1Jqo6u6iç? w9A JJGJbbLocGee 9uq brrpjici€q CGLAJCGC — &bb69L o opirnu

Page 6: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

12 bLoAqGq p? DSUOU ()BGL0m! uuq B6LI(Om! (ra2) VU GULflGL 24nq O pG qcçcLwuiou O NOLjGI2 COUJbGU2OU

2LOL Uu OAGLAI6M O ,OLJcGL2 cowbciw OU jG&i2JUçIOU !U 4pi2 cGUçflL? CJP () uuq

LG 113 M}JTC}3 G21WG boflC UcqGUcG CJI !' liOLJGL2AL!c1Ou ! bopc?. cpoicG O1GL uq CLO22 2G2 2.Gc!1J cpc cJJ!2 wAornA o ncp boi!c 12 COUCGbci1H? !UcGL62c!1J' qqou cpGL€ iaOL cJI2G2GQ M6 CJ30026 UjAG iç OL 1J11UJGL O L62OU8 JjJ6 bojiçic'j GCOIJ-uq uqGuJuc? bXwsuç2 tOL J02262 IJcflLL6q 92 LG2JTJ4 O op-LGJçGq IJ'i1L !1113G28!1J21Th9IJCG e 2c9'cG-pueGqbLow cpc boiq W61C97 LGJIJJpiTL8GWGIJc

oim ;u aç ou ocnGq ou br4!csTJ boUc? cJJO!C6 M0LGL2 cowbGu2çIou

3 J/OLJCGL ombGu2ou B6UGU2

uJGLiçu O ?U2LfIUJGUçgJ ALipJG 62W!0Uuq qjsLGucG2_rn-qJGL6uc62 G2çiwcJoIr M6 61JJ .MJcp q2Cn22iOu O }JG LGJA6cpu GxbJoLG wbpcc?ou2 O piqiis tOt CLO22-2ççG xGq GIjGCç G2çTIJJçiO1J

2çç& qUAG cpue 113 MOL1CGL2 COUJbGI32çioU PGUG1J42 qS1L13 ;P! bauoq juouic vuq qGwoLbpic CpmJG& cOGc}J6L IA1JJ CJJUG2 ! bopçicuj J6qGL2pb LuMOL7CGL2 C0Wb6U2JOIJ pGUGJ2 OAGL JJG bGLOq J(3-Ø M6 2}IO J9 26 GCO-bopc? MOLJCGL2 CowbGu2çiou p6UGJc2 M6 C6U 621!Wc6 c136 qGçGLWUUç2 O

41p€oLGçiCsJ tLLUGMOLJC qG2cLpG cJJG IJCqG1JCG uq GAOTOU ot s btçicrrjJJJG LGw!uqGr. ot cpG bubGL 12 OLUG OJJOli2 M6 p?k bLoiqu

bt o G2çiurnçiiJ ice ucq€ucOJGL 122116 ! bripjic jJ1JUCG }JG IJGGq fO JiUqGLCcIJq li}JGLG boJ!c7. COWG2 ow e1J2LMGU2 jOL JJG bojic? C}JUG O/6LJJ Out COUCp1eJOu 12 {OL Lcm.LT 9U

}3G P1 qui€ bopci€e cpmJ6 ic jJote ot cp€ iqG icciou ojtorrb GXBGLJGIJC7II bojiC?. CJJ91JG '$ !A}JO LGebouq 2!WJLJ?. C}JUG2 111

tonbe LtJJ p€ tf}Jo26 OLçHUG8 JJAG GAOJ!Gq a1UJIJLJ J3O2G O 4}JG4LOJ LOI1b8 IMcp NJJiCJJ W692f1L6 JJG GjGC Ot bopcA c}JuG ooq c0IJçLOJCJJOJCG bLG2GIJç2 I12GJ1J .Mg? oLliLq Laç Ic 1A62 112 p2i2 OL 2GJGC1LT COU-

0'-' JJG boeTçJAG CJqG lAG IJJ11JJC cJJc woqGpu fJJG boJ!c!cJ 6couom? ot boJ!c?6X9UJbJG2 bLGeGucGq GJOftV!up1GuC!u OJIçCOIJJG2 O JJ6 toiib fIIJqGL eçnq? JJJ2 !AJJ G Wq6 bjiu 113 IJJG6dcrcGJA LGUGC cJJG GjGC4 O C}J1JG2 III O}JGL ALWJG2 cpc LG 2iwi-rç3J6oneJ?,GeciuJc!Ou o bopc?e GIjGC2 wfiaç 9-J20 pG C92G COULOJ tocrbe q-p? JJG LG2GLCJJGL Jj512 12 1JGCG22L? pIT uoç 211WC!GUc coUqçiou tOt mJpiB2Gq

Page 7: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

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OIIL ØU9J?21 GONuq WXJWflW bw€u 4p6? ØIJOM O zJrn.Gq M0LJC612 M6 mijj S IJ1TUJGL °L qLJGLGIJ4suq bGLWSLJGIJI bI.çWJ !UITLJG2 Suqa mJ4pJU cpG2G PLOS CSGOUG8 2S4G ASL JU WIUIWJTW

GxSwbl& !tOLJCGL2 cowbGU2SIoU q!P!I! pGUGJç2 AUL? ! bS?tUJGUI WSJG OL WbOLSL? cOcSJO" qou Iq& JJGLG wsiA qjGLGUç qfWGUoiJw °L bOJIC? conjq PG IIUGq LOL

JJ6 L11G bLopppçA o u ccIqGuç occnuJu MpJJG cpi2 ie Jcuo!1u ULILT8 q c°JAG pnjq oim pGoLGcTCJ q2cn2eoIr JJJG 92C iq€ 2 jrnç tAOLJCGL2 qo IJOç JCIJOJAirnj?€q bLsIoJT2J? PA D"°'I () iiq Jtj2CIT2! (oY ou JA02G12

bo22ipJpcA o iwbqcç iuor.msçiou 011 bç o JA0LJCGL2 fl12 ps GUy aGcouq cj o bLopJGwa liJJJ (1I1 OLç q J!P!pcA 2A2GW 0 LGqLG22

uGcaeeLA AoJm bLo/ Toll eporqq JAOLJC )r12c 2 JAGJJ B2 uA jcmq o wsuqcu16Wc6 O' JUGtA JJOtA6AGL GL6 12 110 LG20U pGJIGAG cjcJJJG JSMAGL2 IJJJJJç Cbç1TL6 L1J2GL2 pOMGAGL cIJ!2 qo6e iioç 1LIJbJA 12

uoç iwbjA UIJA JIJGWCIGIJCX i bjrnuçn !e UJqG curjX LApoJG ! bLocGae

0L 2GççflU iirniA C2G2 Ji2 drnç6 IJçJTLJ 1 JiçiçioU cOeçjA ercponp LTGGqbtç MO4C6L uq gtw GJ62 }IG 2A216113 N2 mnJ6CG2eL11A C1TWGL20UJG

pi2cOLIC97 J7çGLçI1LG 211G242 W0AGWGI1 cp bLGGIJç 2A2c€w fT6 !IJJ }J6 lOL 2A21Gw 2 6WC6U JJGIJ JAlJJ bLo&qG u €wciGuc aorrrciow JGUJ9 LG20L4 o JJG 2A2çGUJ IU LGLG22 0L JAOLJ bJcG 1111fl1162 y221TLU113EAJJA &)AGLIJIJJGIJç JIJçGLAGUçTOU 12 JALLuçGq E!L2c c}IG GWBJOAGG JAJJO 2 11li1LGq

bLoqncçou bLocGeeGe JUAOJAG L12JC O tAOLJGL IU1flLA A1GJq 110 U9C6229LA LG20I1

Gug0GUGicA tAG MG/A bopcA L1JJGL2 e bnt2rr!u tA€fl-qGu6q 6uq jjiçILl bLo/u2iou 0 /AOLjCGL2 CouJb6lJ2çiolr C!GLiA Ic 12 CGucL9J 4JG bopcAeic 12 iUçGLG2çi1J co GXW1UG MJJA JJG 0AGL1JWGU 11JA COO2G IIJçGLAGIJG JJ3] JjJ6 JAoqGJ

G1JJbiLJCJ LIJJGJAOLJC

6wb1LicJ 2çoLA LG242 OIl P6 bLcic11WL 2çoLA cpc cir p cJJGU bnç }1G2G 113 U2J1G2çi1J AL1PJG2 cJJc UJA qGçGLWIJ6 p6U6 JGAGJ2 jçponp U0çJJTIJ 1112662 1126 2IICTJ bopci I2 12 G22G13çiJ ILl uA or.A o bopcA 6I1qOGIJGcuJ€uc uq cJJG oçpGL 0L ULI HGLG JAG qo CG 2I1C6 OIl /AJJA 0AGLUW6I1OA6LUUJGU 6}JAJ0L .IA62 JAVA G}J/U0LJ 6d11Si0IJ2 0116 tOL 0AGLIJ-

M6 G1U OIIL qT2CrT2201J pA 1Aiu orrç 21wbJ6 moqGj O LIU IJqJAOLJ.C6L2 IJ CGL1U Iq6IJç19pJ6 IJI12T4G2 9'IJq OCCJ1bc!OIJ2cousb6u2çJou GU62 L6 &J20 JIJCGJA JIJ11GUCG WOeç pGAlJA 0ITC0I1JG2 OL

Page 8: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

e

12 coo joii M6 2Oli GJ0M miq€ ncp couqcoue bc€usvpeçic o€umuçM62 cpç 9LG LGJ9ciAGJ? coo p1p uq cowbGu2çIou 0L MOLJC bJcG wlm.wTuju.ru cowb€ueçiou bcJG uq eaoLJcGL2 LG nuqGL-IuaraGq juIJa OGLcc!qGuc u cpsc c& iç cu G 2potIJ c) J0L coaçerruzbçiou eo cpu'c MOLGL2 o vu2 GdtTvflGq CL022 2çG2 O 1JJ6 MoLjq HOMGAGL c}JG IIIGLvcJTLG 2flG22 Vcp vuqvq obc!wvJ !U8C6 LG2JTJc cjvc UJVLIIJVJ fTc!pçA ot couanwbçiouV2 6VC MOLJCGL }JG C0u1JbGIJ2çi0u Mifl G a€ç 20 (g + c)ic !a CIGOL cpvc i = 20 juxie b6LcG!J€ 2VTJJG bLopvpJJç? o vu vccJqGuc

= , {(,) c) + ()0L vi? JGA€J oj cowb6uevçjolr DGU0G pA = jp uu cp€u 20€() cvii p dcrvj vuq MG Cvii 20JA6 0L }3G }JG LUJ M1JJ OUGL

2flbbo2G cpvc MOLJCGL2 b9Lçrcibvçiou oueçvniç jiojqe 6d11vpc n's"U3UUJG uTL] 1P°' C02c2 viq JGU CJ3O02iIJ i' Wvi0UJiG bLoçaJJLGG CpiiJ2 ( iY c) JJJ12 CVU pG eojsq 111 29G2 L2 CJJ0O21IJ ( c)vuq combGiJ2vçou 20 12 LGVGL ot GdIIVJ sr jy UJJ cpooe(.) 0JJGL.M12G JJJG JLm IJJJ12 61121ThG ;ç 0GL2 pG MOLJCGL V bvcJwG o MVG2MGLG MG }JVAG 2Jlbbo2Gq J112 rrcipcA nucçiou !2 (.) uo vcciqi occn vuq

(j_)÷s+c)1'' °'i jJG lop 12 JJJ(12 p12 Gxb6ccGq nc!J!cAcorrjq ncijrçA o MoLJau GJ2GMpGLG JJJG M0LJGL2 bGLcGbçlou JiG MJfl GM0L!GL2 uuiiaç G cowbGuvcGq 0L M0LJU 0L 1J36 ULLiY MG ellbbO2G cc cp

(5.')

0LwvJiuu iç onçbriç bucG ou& uwa bLoUc2 VLG

C0U212ç O tA0 cJJ!u2 MvG JJG VCcITVT4VJ C084 0 vccqGusc !IJ2IILVIJCG

C açvuqrn 0L C0uJbGu2vcJou cJJGU 112 bLGWTIIW 12 r9PL CO22 bGL M0LJGLvccrrvLvflA viLJA 20 r PGIJGUc2 bvAa !u GAGUc o vu vccq6uc VLG

MOLJCGL vCG2 v bLopvppcA o pvA!u vu vccq€ur jp€ uii cvu JU2flLG MOLJCGL

cGcpuJoIoA cpvç brrç2 M0LJc6L2 vç L!21C oii cp iop MG 2ITbb02& Ju bvLcJCJTJVL v

M6 MiJJ COU2JqGL v ULW (OL L0f1b 0 qGIJcvJ jtw2) MJi0 112G v bLoqnccouIJCLGv2!IJ cp€ GUG2 iIJlfILGq MOLJCGL2 thJJO LGCGIAG coo JccJG IU2J1LvIJCG C0!GLvG

diG OAGL1HJJ6IJç pi cp12 M0LJ v OAGLuhuJGIJç CVu LV2G IVP0L2 GXbGcç€q iicipcA pA

Page 9: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

4 1.tOSt %\13? cT 4 cabs 1%%

cra %OW %)J 9O \.w oq coo socn?}JG pG13G W0UqU6 H0IG1GL c}JG ojjoaii LG2iTJ COIJ pG 26G11 2cL0JJc0Lli0LqJ?:

GcfrnJipusrLu Gcçe GwbJo?uJGu 113 42JO 2GC0L IMII C0UL0C 92 9 L62111c oW (M LGçfTLiJ cJJI2 bo82ipijc?. WoWGUcVTJJ?) jrn2 G GxbGc4 !J0r1U OçJJGLouq JGJ2 0 9 LGflCJ0U 113 J00L qGuJouq yç cp' uqn2cL). JGAGI iç wo2 sjao

V WOIJqOcG p1}JGL c}JOIJ ULIJJ2 qGaIL6q JGAGJ L0!262 cJJG ULUJ2 '!1 I9POL C00c2

U11112 oIq pa MOL2G 0cpa c C}J026U pX YJLIJJ th0iiq pa 0LGcO !1JGL!0L — ff0L1CGL2 iioijq IJO 0J1J ouq

011 !AOLJCGL GxbaccGq flc!r!cA J % = % JLI C926 WOUqOçU 9 JGAG OpOAGJ1Uç Jopol. coeçe OLG JJipGL (AGu NoLJcGLa pGflG2) oçs cpoc cJJGLG orrjq G 110GdlnppLJrrw GjGCç OIl St MJJIC MG 9LT0JXG pGJot1 JLW2 9L6 M0L26 O 2IUCG9CCO1TIJ 2JUCG LW 12 JGGb1IJ 9 St 1JJGLG 12 9J20 9 boe2!pJGMOLTGL2 CJJGUJ2GJAG2 baLcGTAG 130 U1IJ 9GL JJG iuCiqGJJCG Oil Z62 12 cvjcaii JIlcO

JJJJII2 cpa 0AGLUWGIJC baLcGiAG2 diG M0LCGL 02 pG1IJ UJ9G pact 0 pX cpa bopc?

= St(S (> •

axbaccaq nçipçA nu (33) 12 1AG1J pAcpa JJ !LI M0G2 /A0LJGL2 Gxb€LJGUc& JJG G[GCc O JJ2 Oil cpa M0LJCGL2 CLiTGjOthGL IA0G cpOU OGLG bLGiiorT2J2 IC ! 602A 0 CJJ6CJ c}J01 GAGU 0JJOM1iJ 0Lcpa UJJ2 I9G bopcA 23UCG 111 0LGL JGGb cpa LiOLJcGL 9 St Ic COIl UO.M OUGL

IC GXCGaq2 cp iojmiçor.A bLo/J2iou JGAGJ J 12 90AG cpoc JGAGJ !C 'fl u'cobcimrni.r HG13CG cpa wouqoçaq Combau2oçou bopcA thflJ O1JA OUGCC ULJJJ2 OIJCGuivuqoca paJOM CJJOC j€taj uuJJ 266 U1J jib LGdJIJLGq JGAGJ rç otiuJorrjq A0pTUçOIJJA 0j6L 92 bor o o cowbau2oçTou bocjoa co oçtocç MOLJCGL2 Vc}J!2 IIUfl iioç JJOAG 211 GGCç thJJGLG cpa JG.129cGq JGAGJ 2 p6JoM cJJ0 ft43iCp cpa ULW2

L1G2 4O C0LLGC cpia pA JGIeJOCIIJ 9 J6A6J ot cowbauoçiou OpOAG C ,iL2ç iioç€ JJOncipcA ia J622 !C orrJq LGCGIAG i iç li0LJc6q 0L M6 aiibboaa cpoc !c0L iIYh1LiG2 cpa 0A€LUUJ6U A1GM2 69Cp MOL!CGL 92 OCCITOUA L€CG1AU 011 Gxbaccaq

9 11JJJIA mJCc!0u (j — ) St() +%(st'+c) 2HJCG 0LJGL2 OLG 11TJqGL C0WbGL120çGqMOLJCGL2 Oc cjJG bLopop!J!CA Ot 911 OCCJqGUC HGUCG A6M2 IAOLJCGL2 02

ffiG 2nbboea OAGL3JW6L7 12 bocauiop2crc IC 6A0J110C62 cpa MGJJ-pGiL1= 1't\( c c

c}10c LW2 Cp0026 JJpG ULW 10P0L qsuouq 2Oc2UG2 IJJG 112110J

cpoc JaiGM orrjq pa 9J6 L912G aajotG pA !UCLG02!U PGIJGUC2 9OAG cP JGAGJ

Page 10: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

cLuil2j6L2 p6UG6U cb!c uq MOLjGL2 JJJ!2 266W2 OL pG C8G th€ u wrnqJjJ? qa€ o woq€j M}J€LG G ØLG uoç gjjo,w jnwb 211W

CçGLI2çJC8 IjGCç JOL 211bBJA vq q€Iiwuq eponJq eo 6uçGL 2111C6 ijjliOL1CGL2 coWbG112çio1J PGLIGUc22 OPGL CJJULCcGL2c!C2 1Jq17açL CJJL-

.LPn2 bopçc2 pGcliLGGIJ JOL miq cbiçj IAifl CpoTcG OpX pO2G pO LG UJOLG 2u1Jbcp6cic cbJçJ2ça mqj c€uq bLqGL JOIiGL p6116-M6 thOfT 6xbGc p€ q6cL6u2u rn y !JJ!cp 2B?2 eçe COL1LOJJ6

= (2)

822m3JiU 811 IUGL1OL 2O1fTOW P3 GUGLJ li6 C81JtALJçG cpG eOjITçJOU adn-(s)

— ,) {r(c)() + [j(c) —] 9(C%%)}=

'/U(c)

JJJG obçiwj pGusç i qçunuq p?.!u bxsi ona 6drrç1ou uq c) = c)+c)+(J

t1}JGL6 jj(c c ) = {v — c) + %c) uq 12 ØLWO'X

) + (i — i) {(c c)i'(c (v—

)) }tILOLICGL2 JjJGIJ cJJGJL OpIGCçIAG fT1JcçioU 2

bopc?. WGL2 ccp ok)' o (j —?)9JU2 nO4C6L2 GLOW J02262 ww jp bm.ari 1mcpGLe afibboeG

iepcq 211111 O &6JJ-p6iIJ O 0LJ6L2 81J JL1112 JJJ IIJAOJAS ojpG1U O 0tIWGL2 o JLLua JjJ112 cp€ obciwj3 w91JqcG thp!c}1 2B? WXUJG2iiiaçiQ OA6LIJ1IJ6U iucGLAGuçTOLr OLG GUGL8J2 UJLTqçG NJJ JOMGL cp6 w6fl-C1TJJ L81262 IIcIJJçA O JJO26 liOLCGL2 JJJ!2 LG2fTJ 2]JOtA2 JJOIi 4JJGW0q6J C811

(i — ) s(s) + + c) < s 2° cjc ep.cu thOLJ6L2 orrç o uaj 26C0LLr26q JpiLq 2!G O 2GCOL COIJçLCç2 flO6/GL 111 JJG iiJ1çi 2inçiOUGU6C4 ou bLoUca GCOUq 2 /iG AG lIlac 2GG1J MOLJCGL2) LJ1G Gxb6cc6q nçzJzç?k 12IGAGI cpc Lm t/ocrq cpooa& LOW pG GIJAGJobG couqciou 12 uo

OSL% O\ UIr JJL2ç uoç€ i JJ6 OA6LUW6U Li2G2 C JlççJG 9pOA6 çjJ€

Page 11: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

t1pJG CLflPGL uq KLflGGL 4L6 GLG itU bmwGçuc9Jj? UI OfIL woqjjjne LGITJ bb6L bBL9rJGI ous omxq p.r (3LJ1GL vuq KLJ1GGL (iai) H0t6A6L

=

U416L5

c) — — +t—

c}IcMIW LGabGCç LsGLA9çioU 11çJç JGAGJ2 2 2cLW pqOLftkLq 1o poti

_9Jo(v((st c s) + %c))\Jo? GJ924!c!c? o jvpoz. qswnq

(r(sc) +c) =p6flJ qsçsi.upusq p?p sjcç) o jpoi enbbj? içp LsbGC; tiss jpsu es cu JUSJA

crncçiou o nçijrç?. cjiec cps? OpcJU cpGLG yje j6c c jo jo25COL CJJ9IJG2 rc 'a(St) p€ !iUJJTIJiJG22 O JpOL€L2 MOLJC ru 26COL2rrbbJA 12 JJoMGq AL uq psucs JJG GdnJ!p4nu.r anbbIA br4cs O JOL 4O }7GUI €XC622 O JJ9 MJJICp ULUJ2 tAorrrq AO IJ4J bLoJuqG !II IJJOqGJ liGLG !POL

CU oo u iuqr2L?.-thqG ti€GIJGCç LOW g wmsqsq psusuc IGAGJsdnçrou2 '(c uq = (c ) qILGCçJ?

bopc) o p€ suqoGuon ,oL li*€2 OL ou.rbjo)wi€uç i6 CVII VJ20 açrrqGLG porqq ps ncrsuç qGWOU2çLVçG 8L6 wuii?. boae!pJs LGV2OIJ2 0L

aoqcsL2 ru drrG2çiou siJçGL V1JSJA212 O,616L) cJJs O GXGLCI2G

cponp; LGJGAVUç o p€ iUqJl2çLA p.r drrsçou Vuq\oL ocowbpcçs cou2iqsLVpJA JpL sxVLub& as orrjq sxbscç BVLULUGçGL2 MG

bopcA re eojiu psr.s LGbLGeGucGq pA ( c o com.a& iu GU6LVJ 0136 cocrjq4pVç LGJGCç cps sxçsiiç O W9'LJCGc VIJJ7LG OL LGq2T4pJTOU bLopJsw cpsPGLG LsbLGesuçGq pA 'j SCO1IOUJIC AVLIVPIG& 6L6 LGbLG2GUGq pA £1 VUq ABLVpJG2

M6 sxbsc pç cps obçiwj bojicA C}Jo!CG JJ LGIJGCç bojçrc AsL!VpJG2Edflc0U (2) J2 V fT2fTJ eçgLç!u boruç or. Gwbp.4cVJ uJoqsje M fl bLsesuç

AIG!? encp psusçe suqosuorrajA qGcsLw!uGq.cpc cowbsueçrou pGUGçe OL t1LOLJGL2 JJLO1IJJ V woqsj VJOIJ J1U62 9LTJ

qçse yj !U ous coijq GVe!JX LVc!OIJ9J!G c!1316 26L!G2 uq CLOCC 26COU AVLVçIO1J

jscc coece uq psusjca o njctseru cowbsueVc!ou eçeçs WVU-

Page 12: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

To

cv G19cccA o mzy WBUSCG coercpBuGg HGLG4 4 12 2GGIJ JJ 113G GJe2c;CIA O 9G M1IJJ LG2bGCç pcujie i dnvj

iu pc GwbJucsJ MOLJC pGJOM1 MG G2WVG fJG GJeCJcA °L M9tGe MIW LG2bGC4 pGuaic

Vff0h 0L pOçJJ Gdr1çiou2 ni orn. Gusb!LicJ ffIJ8J22!& qaAajobeq pajoo eçvça €couowic couq1ç1ou cpa opacca micçiou o cpa bopcA wjai(e) M€uq jpot drrvpc) acouq u adnçou aCce pa boc) CJJO!CG v v tnuccioucombaueçiou GU62 C U hGfl 2 C0L2 cpuc L6Cc JDOL qawmiq TP0L eiibb1Aadrrçiou a?2çGur E1Lac u G&wçiOU cJJc axbIB!ua 1AVG8 (ev?) sa f1UCJ0IJ obbae GUGL91 M6 C9I3 qG2cLp6 OIIL L621TJ2 111 cpa oui ot ( jaec)pa uiojaq IJ 0LJCGL2 C0WB6U2!0IJ bo1!cA HO6/6L ;pG OflOEMU COUCJ(T21011MOL qo iG UGCG22LiJ?. pGJIGAG cpi 12 cpa oujA cpaotA o pA cpa açça cuALiç1OU2 113 bopcia O COITL2& }J!2 12 LT0 couibraca cacwauç o cpa JççGLGU/ULOUUJGU 1jGL2 CLO82 2çca2 uq icpiu 2ccG2 cpa cosijq axbjrnuM0LjGL2 WI2bGLCGbçJOU2 OGL cpaor.A o ancp 1" 20 BL 22 cpa nUqaLJ?dUacouq EG JJAG coLI2JqGLGq lip?. a unpç 266 arrcp pauaça uq jJA6 9Lrraqbo2ep!IcX o Tuqn2çL? Gdrnj!PLinui L6abou2a2 !AOLjU Gwbjo?uauc GJ6C2

cowbau2çiou bcja OL oLJcai. M6 qoua 20 uq cpocJGAGJ o iioLjar cowbau2sçiou ! woqaj M6LG awbJo?aLe cu obçiu.ijjX cpooeapot& MG2 uq awbjouiauç unpc La2bouq o wuqçaq

jo 2rn1nJJLi& cpa cpaoLGcicJ u.ioqaj 22 bsi.ce E1L2c a pw.a coueiqGLGqiiae uq pauaç 113 C002JU couJb6ueçou bcjwaeiuca cpa GwbJo?aL CL62 poric cpa !i0LjSL2 11JLL1ØJ L6 0 arrpec!cncou G4MGGUacçe cpa qaLaa 2p1c!U cpc a onjq axbacç aGa OCCJ7LL1U JyIe 2

JS0L 2ITbbJX L62bou26) oca cpc cpa axauc 0 MOLJGL obçiWi2W vpoirc cciqGuc2com.ea O13G-OL-OUG 2P1t4J1J cocrjq 2cII pa axbjøiuaq p? = Ø }JG &2GUCG o

woqa mpGr.G cpa LUJ2 ua 2Gcc!IJ uq pauauca q6C20IJ !e woqGJaq (o22 W9T6L OUG-0L-0IJG 2JJJciIJ pi€ J 26611J2 AGL J1UflJCGJ

c = o ypoa cpc boiuc u wnç AG < J 1 % > k JJJJT2IGAGI GLG Gmb!0A6L2 0iq OW1TX CP00 P6 PG1JGU 1'1 BGT inG

occm. 1112c c cpa bouc NjJaL6 cpa wuqca !2 PG!IJ 13cL622Gq poa cpa916 cowbI6caJ? 2picGq liOLJGL2 L6ULJG22 oj aJ22c!c!c!€2 LIOça cpc cp!2

ic 2 IUçGL62ç1U 266 orijq iq T !6 thj.Tau swbJo?aL C022cpa !i0LJGL1 12 GUq0GU0uT2JX qaçamuaq p? 6mbJoaL pGJJA0Lo tpicp W622J1L62 cpa iço o cpa pauajca o cpa wuqça co cpa 6wbJo?aL uq

Page 13: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

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boi19q xcilasd a 19fia 1t9V9 didw asrwjgP as aeiJilidsalb !ai3-zaq th9namlsq baa ',bei3eqxs nI (C.q) ibaqa ainias lo aaof ,o iiIidaaib 1anoibnu in9uniaqmi in9uamlsq a cii ilLlaa1

f1ama iol ixwoo3a tadi asiuosta3 iifidaaib uiniamsi 5eldi sdi aau3aib on 111w ew awo11o Mdw o 3n9zYzsq ' ainsasiqsi d3idw ainsnraq 3iidaaib 1ajot nnarinsq :aIaoQ taioJ b anoibaiI

.(in9319q 11) if ta5b baa (ini9q 82) !no 1aibsm ,aiao Eaioi -daaW 2'cei tirnX no mo'D 'v*to'N \'

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.189 taifi iii 13V91

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Page 14: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

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IJJOAG pGIJGç2 OL qepflciG2 uq bGL1LrTJ6L1ç br.pJ qp!;j tijj q cpc cpua iii scouounc i.iq bojçicj couqçou2 Miwiu açç

MG ''1 gjj ° '°!c !" 0111 1JJAei2 pGjotOL !ulrn.ACOU2€U2112 CL028 2vçG2 ou buc!u poqA bLç2 c}JGLG i8 ou LGbJcGwGiJç LBG2

P!J!1 'uq c11026 OL bGLwm.IGuç bLceJ q2vppcA 2nGeç2 cjJ€r. i sL J622O AL1çJOU CL082 2S2 ou UJBXILIJIflIJ MGGJqA 6UG2 tOt n-AffLWIOU tOL GAG 11J1171162 cpwpiu tAGTJ VOAG O C0Wbi12oU O COGwClGuce

aiou ot 2riC bAuYGuçe IJCL626q f1LThJ bGL0f 2 MGJ hL!çJJ cJ'G C06JCJG1J otOL 11C}J pJJTT462 qntii c!w6 bGLoq YB JJflLG A WCGB CJGL qlBbGL-4}JG AGSL2 Jy Oil AGLVG JUcLG2Gq diGit LG qiepipçX bAwxsçeL!11L6 bL61sç2 AGL6B 0 2JS62 LU8X!W111IJ bAwGuça (j qojjta) tOLcicfrjL poqA btçe HGLG' MG tOCJI2 ou bGLwu6uç JU1IILIGB piiq iJq 6AG2

PGU6U2 12 JJG W9XIWITUJ bAuiGuç 9JJoMGq oL bGuiiusuç ilm.A2n2uGq bet-GdGLWUJ9Vd2 ot bGLwuGuç buLçiJ pGuGuce OUG eb€cç ot b6uzsmiGuç br.çwj

qqçou co o 40çJ GU6J2 MG GXUJ1UG JJGJGAGJ

6uGL0eiçA A!GJqa LrrJce e1iiiiJL cpoes onuq n2!u JJ6 wBxIwmii MGGJqA pGuijcdJJO2G bGuoq2 fl2iIJ JJG LciOU rnmu po,.6 cp€ cb s WG2riL6 ot boj!cA

rao mpicp u qtoi cp tLcf!OU uriu vpoi cpa cb rib qrn.uJJGJq ice iioiiiiij WX1WJ1UJ paua C01J2Uç jLOW jg3 uq iu GLoweçça thrcp AGLøG MGGflA 6LU11J2 poa cpa cb AOLIC ni couçtçMJJTCJJ pq cpa OAGLJJ Gj6Cc O quJIuapu t ppcP cpG L9C4OIJ Ot GW6L2 II dJJ'1GLCGA 1UCLG26q ice UJXJWF1W tAGGJCJA PGUGJ1 JGAGJ GA6LA AGLGLow

GSLIJGL2 qntu cpa JØB cpU qo cube iii bGUIJ2AI/DIJI 22CjJiT2Gç2 MGME?(TLG jj cube iU MGM GLeGA uq GM A0LJ BiJGC1 JL6L LC01I 0uq M4JJ1IJ 1AGU 2ççG OAGL 1IJJG jja bLGBGIJç cIJ!2 iIJOLUJç1OU tOt t° 2G2 Ill6LpJG A91içiou 115 tl2CciOU O GL1JGL2 pomq pA cpa cvb poçp pGcRLGGU acscsa

om. eacouq UJG211L6 o atratoeiçA o eççe btotuur Jisata ! COLT2!q-

mJGA2 (cb2) onçoiL1 Loçciou tonba tLOUJ 1O.O jij JJJ2 btoiqa ireJIJJJIUJ pGUG2 cOGcpGL MIçJJ agtuiua iUtOLIIJcioU ,Lous cpa cri11Jc obrrJdioucjcnjucaq c}J62G t!°' OL ap açça cigiu iuoLwçiou ou jaeaq uix-L6J9-caq o ecçae qiaspJicA pGUGç2 115 IAGU Ast MG JJAGLCiO1J O 246 MOLJGL2 /Aiç}J A6LG MGGCJA GL1J1U2 OA6 4}JG cab) 12 JIJAGL2GJAcombaued!ou p6U9Jç2 JJJJG jLC1OL1 O GLL1GL2 OL MJJOIJJ cpa cb ppsqe (ra15511115 IJJOfTU Ot GL1J1IJ2 dPd I1JA DG tab jcaq LOI1JJ coç MOLJGL2

Page 15: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

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r cp 4pLGG iu nucujb1o?iucu OLG 1oiuc? unjcui (L= roa b=j1g)MG ounç LGG J92 10 29G 1UCOIIJG bGL C9b!f9 10 JJ6 LGeLG22!OU bLGeGuçq 10 COJUWU

JJGLGe uq Jf2 !ucJn2Jou qo C9IIG JJ6 LU1I2 ill VJJ?i npecsucic MIJGAGL 1U1C9U 92 9 GGLWJUU 0JIG GWbOLUL? cocoj OL bGLW9UGUI I.C!9J pu9Jc2 bLG2GuccqmJ6?VLG flWOIJ COAGL9G 9 bOGU1JJ? !wboLuc coL to thOLJ(GL2 cowbGu2iou Jbcuoq io.a JJ1 JYG bGLOq OAGL MJJ1CJJ /BLWpJG2 COU2L1TCG JJ1Jg W' C'" b0b0J9c00q062 UO CJJ9UG pG LI1J2 10 uuA 2JTpec9UCiAG M9 J,4GIçJJGL OG2 LL!cçioU o

pG O rn3GwbJo)uJGuc 9LG RIJVAOIJ9pJ&jvijç bLcuicq JIGLG VLG LOPfl2l VO CJJ9UG2 to cp IJWG bGL;oq IT2G JO ciwçyoir JUCfl1OU

cc ! GJqGLJ?. L6211Jc2 IIJ LGqfTCGq 6UGLO2!c?. o qpJçA p6uGç2GjGC OL rnJGWBJOAUJGUc11 [IJCLGØ2G2 ru bLobor. ou o bobrrioubGL c9bJç tiq nu€wbjo?uisuç LsçGa onL pJJJç?. bicj nb u JuqGbGuqGuç1IJCLG2G cocj pGUGç& coflJUGLJçX pGçtGGu eçç€ iucousuq bGuxJuGuç bLc!J PGJJçJç2 €qnccou JU fflJGWbJO?JJJGLYç 9'J20 bbGL

!UcomG b€r. cøbiç L621TJ IU f11ThG TUCLG2Gq GUGLO21ç?. O pop!JJCOWG BGL cbrç 12 9j iwbor.çuç q€çGLwjr.JiJç o bopc? IUCLG TU 2ççG

qGGLunuuçe o Jo(moxJuJrrw ft66Jq). or. cy cJuJG bGr.Joq ieeo-io13J'62JTJç2 OL GdrrçioU (j) JIJ JJ9pJG J JJJJG LTL2 cojnuru bLG2GIJ;2OAGLUOL uq comboelc!ou o cp JGJ9cnLG

jt x y3] aç o jq bopcJcJ r.ipJ JucJrrqp br. WI!!0U obobrrjçiou uq btoboLçJou ot eç bobrqecou pOAG JJG 6 O JJJG AGC4OL

jucowG b€r. cbrç (e qoJJLe) uq uq 01.7€o e€ JGAGJ GCOUOUJIC ALJpJG2 4JJ iUCJfIq62 cJJLGG J2 111

liJGLG \ J2 ?GL €jGCc uq 24ç€ pc€q GuGCc JJJG ccOL [x=\ + k + + ( + r (3.,)

2çJOU 6UG2 111 2 8 JLU6 c M G2çimçG UIJ €dcioçiou o ouuJ'€ç OUG O JJG2€ bojic?. ALJJG2 JJGLG 9 W€92J1L6 o tAoLJcGL2 coi.ub€u-

9uq br.obor.çrou iiq pJqc9oLe o bopcic9j COUcLO! P!Uq129pTJiç? pGUGç2 01.7 J92 JU 29G GCOUOLUIC C0Uq1ç1OU2 92 117 e;sç€ bobnjuçrouIJ9IJ2 O 2ç9ç€ IiLOLJGL2 couJbGu29çiou p2¼ LGL€221U 0111. O11L us€ecm€2

JU 2çG €couounc q€iuoL9bpic 9U bopçJc9J A9L!9P162 MGEdll9c!017 (2) j€q (12 o PGI!GAG J9 br.or.ui GUGLO2 2poITJq LG2bOIJq CJJ91JG2

31 bOHC D6cGLI!U!OU

117 211171J9L EW?2

Page 16: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

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mGIJ• Jj3G26 LG2IIJç2 LG 9ASJJ9pJ6 SLOW JJG JTWOL2o WCL62G 9wboL1A ocj puj a usvntq p) jo( uixrwnw MGGJqA pGuGUc2)

cowboeiçiou o6wbJo?LwGuc mlçjJiU JJG auç€ J COIJLOJJG LOL D€WOCL9cIC OAGLIJOL2

CJO2G miçjj 0 qTeCn22iOIJ O LGJOçIAG LUGL2 O fT21U 2!UJIJOL aOLJGL2 JU CJO26J?.

coinb2oçioIs iu pp o bojic 6uqosuG;c? qq LU J GC4iOIr MGC1122 JJG CL1GL10 tOL 011 liçp!u-2c0cG COLT4LOJ LOI1b LU C026 O MOLJCGL2

bLo/Iqs 0 GUCUJULJC 001U2ç MJJIC}J 0 bopc2 UCqGUCG IJJOA pG WGO2J1LGq M6 cp2-201116 wr.?uu eçoç j€j GcouowIc couqiçiou2 o onb fTUGL 24nq) wo)qjGL6UcGe-iu-qi[€LGuc62 Geç!uJoçioLr JJIU-2çOcG COIJ4LOJ LOiTb 2np1Gc

o 2L04G OGIJ CJJO2GU OAoiq 2J1C OL1Jcç6q AOLJOpJG p102 12 liUJJ1U-20612 bGLOL13JGq 011 eçOçG-JGAGJ 0(TC0WG qoco OL 013 UHCLO-JGAGJ 0JTçCOWG qo4w

p102 62cLU0cG2 0 JJG bopCA2 6[GCc JjJi2 12 MpGcpGL 4JJ6 JUCIqGUCG GeçiWoçJOU

oflccowG GdlTOçiOU 2 iuoqAGLcGIJcj? owiç6q LOW oiçcow€ uio)0JG p!02: c?' AOLJOpJG boç€uçiojj? ojGcce poçp cp bopc?. GcTIiUçJOU ouqbopc C0IJ6 113 911 HJCJqGUCG €cliioçiou UJOA JGOAG GeçIUJOçGa obGu oiiiççq A0L-1LTJJ1GIJCG bopcA priç 0J20 oaacc OIIçCOWG AOLJOpJ62 flL6CJA D!L !UCJII2IOU O }1Go bopc?e OLG 2GU2LçIAG c}J6 !13C1112!0U 0 240G JGAGJ AOLIOPIG2 uoç OUJA

6uGJçk M6 p6J1J th]çJJ CL022-2çoçG pc€q GjjGcc W06J2 ouq 2JJO G241W0ç6B 0

o q1jGLGUc woqGpu 2çLOcGIG2 cob€ ticp boçGuçroj bopc? €uqo-uoii o bopc? Lrcq6UC& !A}JGLG 2b6q9J O1çGUçOU &1JJ pG 1AGU

3 l'q °I. b°fl Iq"J!UG auçp CJTLLG1J GCOIJOUJJC oziq bopc!coJ coUqçoU2comç oi bm.boeGrrr ocçiou p?. 2çoçG OAGLUWGUç2 pL1U bopci€e iuço6C0UOW?. 0J N0LJCGL2 cowbGu2oçiou pnç 2fl62 IUCIqGIJCG 0U9J?2i2 ajionq oc-0 jyp J 0L6 uoç 0UJ? 0 LrqGbGuq6uc !LIcGLG2c IJ c}J!UJC!U oponç bopçicojbGu2oc!ou bo1icIG2 LG2BOLIq 2çSçG GCOUOUJIC ouq bol!e!coJ AoLopJGe IPG

6L0Jj J qGWOU2çLOcG2 li04CGL2 COW-

0AGL0GJ2boç JJOAG WOLG GUGLOfl2 bGLulouGuç botcwj th0LjCGL2 C0U3b6U20 013 GUGJ2 013

JONGL J101126 O JJG JGJ2J0cI1LG JJOq D6WOCL0C 0AGLU0L2 !IJ c}JG LGCGLL

GL2 PG1JGUc2 02 qOG2 013 iUqCoçoL }çGbnpj!C0112 pojq 0 W010LJ LUcoulbo2Gq o Gbnppcou2 02 0 COU2!2cGUcJ? UG.0ç!AG GI1GC 013 JJG 2G Oh0LJC-

W1IJOLTç2 o bojcA GJJGLO21ç? JJJG L0CciOU O JJG rlbb6L p01126 Ot J612J0çI1LG

JJJG bojiçicoj AOLIOPIG2 iucplqGq pi }J2 013022 OLG 101JcJ). 2JJiCoUc qGçGL-

Page 17: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

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MOLL pon bo1jc? GUqo6UGiçA nrijjA 11oq 91J JU2çLJ1WGUçf iHLI9pJG2 vbbLo9cJruq Jc cLoIq!u ori 013 cpL!c) o bnppc €xb€uqicm.c jjJoec açnqe JJB

JJJ1G jucçc 9AG p€u miqGJX IJ2Gq OL GxvUJbJ& JucqGucG ot bLobGi.ç2.

AL1pJ€ j uq bopc? J.rpjG i SLG OLJJOOU9J onb CJJVLCçGLI21C2suq xGq jccr Jpn2 j iJq quoce poe€ COWboU6IJ2 o onçcow€uqoGu6ç? i€ taIfl fl2G co qsIJoçG AWLJS2 U64 O JJG GjGc2 o ( vuq ?GgL

cuc€ o b8tusGçGL J JO 12CfT22 boe2pJG pI2 Cfl26 p). bojc).JJJG cG? 122n6 ou.1 0 bopcA boiuç o iuia coucsu 2IJ azs ouq auiij-

j OL€ IIIJOp2GL.MpJG ouq OLçpOOIJOGLLOL 2çLJ1CçJ1LG ELLOL couJbouGuç s LGbLGeGuçe JJO86 OLCG2 qGç6Lwjuju onçCoWG

0LG 11.1 6IJ6L97I opauç LOUJ (35) oLlq }7GL Gj6C2 OLG 2npenWGq JJGLG !L1 cPG!6L6 2GGIJ 40 TIJJn6UcG iv G2çILuoçiou L62ITJ2 OGdfWçiOI7 (3J) JJJ6 A0LJ0JG8pocjc€çq A0L0JG2 ' LGBLG2GIJç [V H] GCOU0UJ!C ouq bopicsj Liop0AGL06 oç 2çoçG !GA6J 12 0 ?60L 66C ouq !8 0 eçoç pc€q G6C B'6taJJGLG y 12 LOEIL icçot ot CJJOLOCcGLI2IIC2 O LGJ6A0U Lonb O taOLJGL2

= 'jc+ + c + Jc + [t + (3•)

?2 4JJ6U

ou onçcow quoçq pA j6 coiiou!c9r boj!cA JIJcJqGUcG €dnoouowr

EIMbI0AILIGuc qço ia€i opconq GLOW cp6 OLIb o o\ cnsoç€ JJGUJ 2çOçG JGAGI 1121U 60L1J1IJ2 ta6iJJç2 G1 240ç6 JGAGJ W68118

OncOiu LOwçJOJJ oiib o CflLL6U j,obrrjocou 2m.IL6? (cb2)ouq 0L6-MOLJCGL2 cowbGu2oçiou UJOA 1UJJT€IJC6 60LLTIJ2 M6 opçou 60LIJ11J2 W60211L62 GLOW

bjoAmsuç ovq L?62 iv boLcicnIoL WfI2L1G2 ouq occnboçiou2 tapGLG laG 1JJoc

M6 JOOJ OL 6jGC2 O OIJ 0 IJ1TW6L O PUGL6U A0L10PIG2 iuCJrrq1u 6W-(jj) ta}JO 2çITqA pJqqGJJCG O 1aOLJGL2 cOuJbGu2oçiOu !U P!2 L9WGtaOLJCiIJcq6ucG IAIO2 cJILGCcJA LGJ6A0IJ o C"P iq KT6GL

rnçLoqncçiou CGq 6jjGC42 W0q6J2 &LG IJota COWWOU !' JJG OIl bopcA

jooj oç bopcA iUciqGLTcG u g CL022-2GCc1OIJOI LBIIJGlaOLJC jg 2 2CJ1226 IJ2çOcG jx€q 6jGC2 ovq AGOL 6GCç2 iTcp Woqa]e uaççui;€ OIl 8q/ZlJcG OL JJO26M6 PG!U out iLrA62cioçiOu wcp 0 LuoqsJ o bopcA 1IJCq6IJC6 cpoç COIJçLO2 OL

25T XG EIL6C12 jOq6J2

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Page 18: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

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?i uqcçoLe uq 8GJ4pG26 conjq pG ot 92 pG LG2iqfl2 LOW LGLG22IOU2 O IJq 1 LG2bGCcIAGJA ou

bo2aipJ6 OL €xwbj& 2OWG fflJO2GLAj6 WG2JTLG o b6iwi2w sporicpj€a us q€çGr.upJG pocp cpG boJ!c?. uq cp Oi1çCOUJG Ot IIJçGLG2ç ic 12

y aacouq boc6u!s 201ThC6 O P! !2 (TG cp bL6€ucG O flhiO26LAJG AmJ-GWBJUCSJ W&ç46L

qGbGuq2 nbou wu!çnq o 1p !wboLcc6 o ci°' sirpsç psi uq6b6uqGu WJJ1GUC6 ou onçcou.r€ o IUçGLG2ç jp o GjGClounc6q isuspJ€ prs cssi€q pA opeGr.AspJG isrspj€ qcr.wrn bopcA uqCLO22-2cvcG JxGq GGC4 €wsçiow JJJG acouq pscjcç€q o (re) LGbLG2GLIç2

J2 CjGSL GLOW (ag) qsç c}JSLG SLG boçeuçisA L€JwçGq 201TLC62 o ps wGLO JJ5JG G6U qLobbGqthJJ€LG 2iip2içnçrou JJ52 pGGIJ IJJ5G OL LOW (3) sirq th!cJJ bnr Gdnsj

b[ .- I + —f-- —f-- i-Y9:J1 \"J

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= + ()s + (2)npeiçnçiu OL jLOUJ (3) XiGJq2

= (2•t)

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o co€wcJGuca iu boj!cA qGçGuInusçou €dnsçoir jp cJrrsçiou qG2cup1u}JG COGWCIGUc2 ow (ri) s = (1 [(y' + y) x j] cojmim A6COL

X (y + y wsçr.ix o opa6LAc!o1Ja ou GCOUOUJTC SLJc boflc!csJ ASLISpJ€2 D6UOG€dnsçiou UGç O GjGCç2 O 'J AGSL suq !i° 52 = !2

qGuocG COJJ6CAGJA Gcouow!c sug boj!c!csJ A5L5pJG2 cpc q6cGLwus bopcAAGSL 1JcpC5çOL& suq 2ç546 iuqcs4OL2 LOL 21WbJ!C!cA 111 GXbLG82IOII2 OJjOEL

Page 19: uiX nidoSi ,iM noB - NBER

rn iiu occnb9çxou om. GwbIoAwGur wGvnr.qo UOj Cp9UG J JAG IWG 4JJG unwpcJ. O JAOLJGI2 (LpGL iji i.cjiou) €wbo?q

ujpcjjA Jç6L 62çJUJçGq iwbcç o bojic? cpu€ i" rpc o oim GaçJwçOL GXCJIT2IOIJ O ALWJG8 q6c6LI1JJJG poçp boJ!c). uq pGJJAIOLJ OITCOWG2 qL-Gt2 couJb6ueçJoupGuGc& iii cp€ Gcouq cGLIJJ o () JJJJG !UCJ!0ULoW 41G26 OflCOUJ6 6dnçJoue G[GC !2 ouço €eçiwçq tOL .MOLJC-

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oj pw€-eøi)uu 2çç6 j€isj GCOIJOWJC 'uq bopçcJ ir.ipJ qi.w&çicjjAcp sqqcou o xq j€cç us cojmssu bui€ boaiçJAG jjcc-0012 0 oooY uq LGJJqGL2 c !112E1.7flC1JI EJOL °LGfTCG2 2JG o JJ6 GjGC O AOLJGL2 cowb6ueçJou pu€jçe (pow(b-JnG=çyoo) j.J}JG ISJCJfl2IOU o cuJGAL).rn 2BG €cououncLG loujçjA eiIqJcuc us f6 GmbJoXisJ6uc GdiT9çiOIJ tçp S'IJ EJ-2ççieçic o 102Qbjo?uis€u bobrrçiou uq bLoboL!ou GJqGLJ?'. !u cp jjsqq cjJG GuJbJoXwGuc L€LG22IOU j2 us eçç uscow€ bGL cbç eçç€ nuw-ou u.rcp!uG obGLçoLe 6wbJoXwGu tionjq bLGqicc i' c°i"'-''!cr x€q moqGJ JyG pa1J€jca ALJUJ6 uo g ei.urucrnJc UGUG 6IGCçMGIJ OJJGL W602J7L62 SLG n26q) coJm17 buça LGW2 LOW C9JOU-o cpu lu jo wxiwnm jq? pxsijç k O/G (w!JvL L62i1fl2 LG oiiuq

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açyu cp eçç€ 'U aGcçoL,8 oJuu GLOW 16U p.' cpJO AGLG JJOIILJ?k GLU1L1?J.2 o uJcpiuG obGLçoLa visq OIl LC4iOU O liOLJC6L2p6u6e M€ GaçiLuøG j€cç o CJJL1G2 us jo W9XIWflW .tA6GJq? p€ugca ouAøLIJG2 j OL OJ1COIJJ€2 cporrpc G iIflJflGUCGq p?. liOLJCGL2 cowbGueçJou

M6 !JJ2cLc us p.ubcç o GXCpI2JOU iJq UCJfl2OU O qGLGIJ2Cfl22 IJ WOLG qcj pGJOMUJOLG qnjcrqc O btoçcç iuç rn CLO22-2çç6 XGq GjGC4 G2c.UcJOLr M6 "fl2GCcOL J}J2 boçGuçJ p9 LGbL6EGUcGq p? UL2 pLcJcGcGq cGLIJJ IU (weY eJAOLJ.6L2 cowbGu2çiou 6UG2 uq c}JG GWb1O?U3GIJ O JAOLJGL2 !u s bicaJBL

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