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What We Did
Online Tracking Survey
National Survey of UK Grocery Shoppers
N=1,076
Wave=11
Fieldwork: 7th – 9th May 2021.
Why did we do it?
To enhance our understanding of the impact of Brexit
and its ensuing economic effects on UK consumers
and also to understanding their perceptions and
attitudes to Ireland and Irish produce.
Source: The Guardian, 2021
Methodology and Context
Bord Bia are continuing the tracking of UK grocery shoppers to
gauge how the Brexit situation is impacting on attitudes towards
the Rep. of Ireland and the core food & drink export categories.
This study is conducted via a nationally representative survey
of UK grocery shoppers online and this is the 11th wave of
research conducted to date. The fieldwork for this period was
conducted between the 7th – 9th May 2021.
The survey focuses on a range of Brexit related topics including
understanding the mood of the nation, personal impact based on
economic situation, perceptions of Rep. of Ireland food and drink
vs. key competitor markets around being local, openness to
choosing, trust, visibility and premium credentials. It also
evaluates the extent that Rep. of Ireland food and drink would be
missed should Brexit encourage a price increase or a limitation in
availability of Irish produce.
Bord Bia’s research partners for this project is
Source: The Guardian, 2021
Mood of the Nation & Perceived Impact of Brexit on Food & Drink
Photo by Markus Spiske on Unsplash
In the United Kingdom, the consumer
confidence survey measures the level of
optimism that consumers have about the
performance of the economy in the next 12
months. The GfK Consumer Confidence is
derived from the survey of about 2,000
consumers who are asked to rate the
relative level of past and future economic
conditions including personal financial
situation, climate for major purchases,
overall economic situation and savings
level.
Consumer confidence has significantly
improved since Jan’21 indicating a much
more positive outlook for the year ahead.
Mood of the Nation and Economic Outlook
Currently the UK is at its highest level of consumer confidence since early March 2020, as the UK rolled out vaccines rapidly and set out a path for reopening the economy (GFK, 22th April 2021)
United Kingdom Consumer Confidence | 1981-2021 Data | 2022-2023 Forecast |
Calendar (tradingeconomics.com)
Brexit Referendum Day
In hindsight, do you think Britain
was right or wrong to leave the EU?
Was Britain Right or Wrong to leave the EU ?(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
45%
44%
11%
RIGHT
WRONG
DON’T KNOW
From Bord Bia’s Brexit Pulse Survey May 2021
Of respondents who voted leave vs. remain:
LEAVE REMAIN
RIGHT 84% 12%
WRONG 9% 80%
DON’T KNOW 8% 7%
Even as Brexit becomes embedded and ‘real’, the
public opinion remains almost as you were in terms of
the perceived wisdom of this policy.
If there was another Brexit referendum
tomorrow, how would you vote?
Leave or Remain: would you vote differently tomorrow?
43%
45%
6%
LEAVE
Of respondents who voted leave vs. remain
LEAVE REMAIN
LEAVE 84% 9%
REMAIN 9% 84%
DON’T KNOW 5% 5%
REMAIN
DON’T KNOW
Interestingly as many previous Remain voters
would now vote to leave as previous Leave
voters would now vote to remain. The lead for
Remain overall driven by consumers previously
ineligible to vote.
From Bord Bia’s Brexit Pulse Survey May 2021
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
Only 3 in 10 (34%) UK Shoppers think
that Brexit will be positive for the UK
grocery shopper with 68% expecting that
it will result in higher prices for groceries.
Photo by Alex Green from Pexels
4 in 10 (40%) UK grocery shoppers feel
there will be less choice in the future due to
Brexit while 35% expect that the quality of
produce will be negatively impacted.
Photo by Richard Burlton on Unsplash
Photo by Steve Harvey on Unsplash
Only 3 in 10 (32%) of UK Shoppers are consciously trying
to buy more British food (this is less than half (48%)
among previous leave voters).
Perceived Impact of Brexit on Grocery Shopping in UK
18%
28%
32%
34%
35%
40%
58%
If I have the choice, I will avoid groceryproducts from the EU because of Brexit
I have noticed that certain foods I buyhave not been as easy to get because
of Brexit
I am consciously trying to buy moreBritish food because of Brexit
Overall, I think Brexit will be positive forUK grocery shoppers
I expect the quality of some products onour grocery shelves to be negatively
impacted by Brexit
I think there will be less choice for UKshoppers in the future due to Brexit
I expect Brexit will lead to higher pricesfor UK grocery shoppers
Leave Remain
41% 76%
22% 61%
17% 55%
62% 11%
48% 23%
20% 40%
28% 11%
Here are some things that have been said about the impact of Brexit on grocery shopping in the UK.
For each of these can you please say whether you agree or disagree?
NET Agree
(Somewhat / Strongly)
The emotional divide between
previous voting behaviour is
evident in terms of attitudes
towards grocery shopping with
previous remain voters much
more likely to expect negative
grocery impacts as a result of
Brexit.
Many previous leave voters
however are sceptical about the
potential fall out on grocery
related to Brexit.
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
Personal Impact
Photo by Alex Perez on Unsplash
Your ability to travel/ go on holidays
Personal Impact of Economic Situation on…
To what extent do you think the current economic situation is having a negative or positive impact for you personally in each of the following areas?
34%37% 37% 33%
41% 38%
63% 63% 65%
45%
39%
44%
45% 45% 46%41% 45%
24% 24% 21% 34%
42%
8%7% 8% 9% 9% 7% 6% 6% 6%
10% 11%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Negative Impact No Impact Positive Impact
Your optimism for the future
46%
52% 47% 49% 53% 53%61% 57% 62%
39%33%
25%22% 24% 25%
19%
21% 22% 22% 18%23% 30%
18%17% 20% 17%
21%
18% 11% 15% 13%
28%
30%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Negative Impact No Impact Positive Impact
While levels of positivity remain stable across economic related attitudes, there is a marked decrease in the perceived levels of negative economic impact that Brexit is having on consumers’ lives.
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
40%
43%
40%
42% 45% 45% 50% 47% 47%
30% 25%41%
41%
41%
39% 38% 40%33% 36% 36%
47%
57%
6%6% 8% 9% 8% 7% 9% 11% 10% 10% 9%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Negative Impact No Impact Positive Impact
Your personal finances
Your job security and prospects
22%
24% 23% 23% 24% 27%
34%
33%32%
21%16%
53%52% 52% 51% 52% 54%
42%46% 47%
55%64%
6%6% 8% 8% 6% 6%
7%7% 7%
8% 9%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Negative Impact No Impact Positive Impact
Personal Impact of Economic Situation on…
To what extent do you think the that the current Brexit deal is having a negative or positive impact for you personally in each of the following areas?
… however the clear erosion of negativity from a personal economic perspective is not translating to the same extent in food & drink terms. While notably negativity towards the EU is evident
How you feel about the EUHow you feel about the EU
33%
43%
15%
MAY 21
Negative Impact No Impact Positive Impact
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
The cost of food and drink in the UK
49%52%
47% 49% 53% 53%61%
54% 55%48% 45%
35%33% 33% 32% 31% 32% 30% 32% 32% 31%
38%
6%6% 8% 7% 6% 6% 7%
9% 6% 8% 8%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Negative Impact No Impact Positive Impact
28%
31% 30% 29% 36% 31%41% 28% 30% 30% 30%
53%53% 54% 53%
48%55%
43%
55% 55%50% 53%
7%6% 8% 8% 9% 7%
9%
10% 8% 11% 9%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Negative Impact No Impact Positive Impact
Accessing the food and drink you enjoy
6%
7%
7%
8%
9%
10%
10%
11%
13%
13%
14%
19%
26%
28%
29%
Fresh bread
Butter
Cheddar cheese
Tea
Fresh pork
Beer
Fresh beef
Premium chocolate
Coffee
Fresh poultry
Red Wine
Fresh fish
Fresh vegetables
Continental Cheese
Fresh fruit
And which, if any, of the following type(s) of food and drink are you concerned about with regard to availability of these post - Brexit?
Foods most Concerned about Availability post-Brexit
8%
8%
12%
15%Premium chocolate (n=351)
Fresh beef (n=418)
Butter (n=697)
Cheddar cheese
(n=728)
Concern over Availability among Regular
Buyers of each food type…
The level of concern for key
Irish export categories is lower
than those from mainland
Europe (e.g. fruit & veg and
continental cheese)
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
66% 63% 67% 69% 66% 69% 66%73%
65% 66% 65%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 May 21
Considered a Friend or Foe to the UK…
For each of the following countries/ regions, would you currently consider them a ‘friend’ or ‘foe’ of the UK’s?
Friend
ROI considered a ‘Friend’ over time
56%
42%
32%
30%
18%
7%
7%
6%
7%
11%
30%
37%
44%
63%
65%
70%
Foe
-10
-1
+6
-6
-10
-3
+1
=
The Rep. of Ireland has maintained strong friend status despite apparent pressure on relationships with other EU members and with the EU itself. This indicates a decoupling of association among UK shoppers
regarding the Rep. of Ireland and its relationship to the EU.
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
58%
64%
72%
73%
74%
80%
81%
88%
85% 86% 86% 85% 89% 87%82%
87% 85% 88% 88%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Openness to choosing Food & Drink from…
To what extent are you open to choosing food and drink from these markets currently?
Openness to choosing Food & Drink
from….
Openness to choosing Food & Drink from ROI over time
UK Shoppers remain as open as ever to choosing Food & Drink from the Rep. of Ireland…
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
The Continued Importance of Trust
The reality is that the Rep. of Ireland is still the
most trusted European origin for food and
drink outside of the UK, and is growing over time
while the EU and other EU countries are
decreasing.
Given the increasing importance of TRUST in the
grocery environment currently, it appears
paramount that Irish producers reinforce the trust
that UK shoppers have for Irish food and drink
produce when engaging with retailers in the
current Brexit climate.
49%
46%
47%
59%
I trust food and drink from hereTotal Grocery Shoppers May’21
+4
-8
-5
-1
v Jan 21
17%
30%
36%
41%
45%
46%
59% =
=
=
-1
=
+1
+1
Origin Equity for Food & Drink
I trust food and drink from here
Their food adheres to really high
quality standards
Reassured if a food or drink product
is from here
The best alternatives to UK food
Produce food in an environmentally
sustainable way
I see plenty of their food and drink
produce available
Happy to pay a little more for
Countries outperforming
Rep. of Ireland (exc NI)Rank
Looking at this list of things that other people have said about origins of food and drink, can you please choose the countries/regions to which you believe each applies
New Zealand continues to outperform Rep. of Ireland across key food & drink equity measures, but Rep. of Ireland has improved on its trust and reassurance credentials. Visibility remains a key concern however.
46%
Rank
Change
39% 32%37%
63%
47%
44%
27% 23%+1
-2
+2
+4
*
2
2
2
2
2
4
3
+4
52%
+5
*New statement
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)
53% 57% 61% 57% 64% 60% 57% 57% 56% 55% 59%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
I trust food and drink from here
37% 43% 43% 43% 46% 46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 41%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
The best alternatives to UK food
36% 40% 40% 41% 44% 45% 39% 46% 42% 41% 45%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Reassured if a food or drink product is from here
34% 33% 32% 34% 38% 39% 36% 37% 36% 34% 36%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Produce food in an environmentally sustainable way
Looking at this list of things that other people have said about origins of food and drink, can you please choose the countries/regions to which you believe each applies
Rep. of Ireland Equity for Food & Drink over time
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
23% 24% 27% 24% 31% 31% 25% 29% 25% 25% 30%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
I see plenty of their food and drink produce available
14% 11% 14% 12% 16% 15% 14% 17% 15% 16% 17%
JAN 19 MAR 19 MAY 19 JUL 19 SEP 19 NOV 19 MAY 20 AUG 20 OCT 20 JAN 21 MAY 21
Happy to pay a little more for
If anything, endorsement of Rep. of Ireland on these key equity aspects for Food &Drink is increasing of late.
19%
46%
49%
52%
52%
58%
58%
62%
65%
Extent of missing Irish Food & Drink
Now thinking about Irish food and drink, imagine a scenario where there is significant increase in price or limitation on availability due to Brexit. To what extent would you miss each of the following, if at all?
Would miss Irish <CATEGORY> if increase in price or limitation on availability
Cheddar Cheese
Butter
Chocolate
Beef
Sausage
Yogurt
Mushrooms
Lamb
Whiskey
All Grocery Shoppers
The aforementioned affinity of British shoppers towards Irish meat , dairy products and butter is evident as these categories would be the most missed among regular buyers of these categories if an increase in price or limitation on
availability occurred as a result of Brexit.
Change v
Jan 2021
+2
+1
+2
+3
-6
+2
-4
+5
-1
56%
65%
64%
67%
72%
72%
75%Beef (n=418)
Cheddar Cheese
(n=728)
Premium Chocolate
(n=351)
Butter (n=697)
Mushrooms (n=555)
Yogurt (n=711)
Whiskey (n=91)*
Among Regular Buyers of Change v
Jan 2021
+4
+2
+2
-1
-4
-4
-5
* Caution Small Base
(Base: Grocery Shoppers 18+ in the United Kingdom, n=1,076)