UK Foresight Programme - Overview

ASSOCHAM Conference:

“Calamities: Nature or Human Action? Challenges and Responsibilities”. 5 March 2014, New Delhi.

Professor Sandy ThomasHead of the UK Foresight Programme

Foresight Programme

“Helps make decisions today that are resilient to the future”

1. Foresight Projects: major studies looking at key issues 10 - 100 years in the futurewhere science and technology are the main drivers for change, or offer key solutions

2. Horizon Scanning / Policy Futures Projects: small projects aiming to answer specific policy questions

3. Foresight Toolkits and Networks: share best practice within and across government

Foresight reports

MigrationMigrationComputer Computer TradingTrading DisastersDisasters IdentityIdentity

ObesityObesityLand UseLand UseMental Mental CapitalCapitalGlobal FoodGlobal Food

Infectious Infectious DiseasesDiseases

Intelligent Intelligent InfrastructureInfrastructure

Brain Brain ScienceScience

Cyber Cyber TrustTrust

FloodingFlooding

2008

20132012

2010 2007

200620052004

20092011

Five ChallengesFive Challenges

A Balancing future demand and supply sustainably

C Ending Hunger

D Meeting the challenges of a low emissions world

BAddressing the threat of future volatility in the food system

Maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services while feeding the world

EE

Food system contributes to climate change

• 10-12% GHG emissions

• 30% including land conversion

• CH4 from ruminants and irrigated rice

• N2O from fertilisers

• In all cases climate change makes ending hunger more difficult

Include in climate change negotiations

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the UK food supply chain, 2007

Source: Defra statistics.

Reducing Risks of Future Disasters(2012)

1.Identify risk

2.Decide how to respond to risk

3.Act to address risk

4.Monitor outcomes

1

2

3

4

For disaster risk, science plays an important role at each stage

This framework is used in many sectors for addressing risk:

RRFD’s key messages• More people are at risk than ever from natural hazards, particularly in developing countries. This number will rise over the next 30 years.

• The use of science to reduce the effects of future natural hazards such as floods, droughts and earthquakes must be stepped up and adopted more widely.

• Emergency response is vital but it’s important to ask whether more can be done to anticipate these events and limit their impacts, saving lives and livelihoods.

• Choosing to deploy resources for disaster reduction, but science has the potential to help make these decisions.

• It tells us why disasters happen, where many of the risks like and for many disaster when they will occur.

• So disaster and death are not the inevitable consequence of greater exposure to hazards. Impacts can and should be stabilised.

Source: UNICEF 2012

Source: CERN

Nature 2011, Vol. 478

Migration and Global Environmental Change

Key Messages

•Trapped populations

•Movement towards environmental risk

•Migration as adaptation

•Action required now

Flooding and Coastal Defence

Scenario analysis By 2080 BAU leads to increased risk in all scenarios:

Up to 20-fold increase in economic damages to £20 billion p.a.;environmental degradation; andincreased social vulnerability

2002

National Enterprise

LocalStewardship

WorldMarkets

GlobalSustainability

Quantitative and qualitative modelling coupled with scenario analysis, map future risks and the impact of response measures.

By combining response measures, future risk can be reduced to acceptable levels.

How has “Future Flooding” impacted decision making?

2080

“Business as usual” leads to unsustainable risk

Response portfolio reduces risk to acceptable levelsImpact

FF significantly informs:• Increased government spend on flood defence;• England’s 20-year strategy for flood risk management;• Recommendations and action in response to UK 2007 flood events;• Legislation – Flood and Water Management Act 2010; and• Major infrastructure planning – eg Thames Estuary 2100 project

How Foresight achieves impact

Early and sustained stakeholder management

•High quality analysis

•Innovation throughout

•Project scope and relevance

•Timing

•Review

Looking ahead to 2050 - a new era for sustainable manufacturing

Future of Manufacturing (2013)

The Future of Cities (early findings - late 2014)

Recent and ongoing projects

UK Foresight Programme - Overview

ASSOCHAM Conference:

“Calamities: Nature or Human Action? Challenges and Responsibilities”. 5 March 2014, New Delhi.

Professor Sandy ThomasHead of the UK Foresight Programme