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Satimhc ip pbc Lte||tei`|6Dcpwcch pbc CS @LOPI /

Ls|pek| Shmeh

Ejgi \bsk}je+Pi~meji

I~tmj 4>94

Ts||mi%HM\ Lchpct

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Motm m| i tc|citlb lchpct ih` i oetsk oet `cdipc eh kifet mhpcthipmehij

~ejmpmlij ih` clehekml m||sc|( Bci`c` d} Pbmctt} `c Kehpdtmij |mhlc mp|oesh`mhg mh 9=7=* Motm m| i heh+gevcthkchpij ih` i heh+~teomp etgihmipmeh(

I| ih mh`c~ch`chp pbmha piha* Motm |cp| mp| ewh tc|citlb igch`i* ~sdjm|bmhgmp| omh`mhg| tcgsjitj} oet i gjedij is`mchlc(

Wmpb eoomlc| mh ^itm| ih` Dts||cj|* Motm |pih`| esp i| ehc eo pbc titc Otchlbpbmha piha| pe bivc ~e|mpmehc` mp|cjo ip pbc vct} bcitp eo Cste~cih `cdipc(

S|mhg ih mhpct`m|lm~jmhit} i~~teilb* Motm dtmhg| pegcpbct ~ejmpmlij ih`clehekml `clm|meh+kiact|* tc|citlbct| ih` mhpcthipmehijj} tchewhc`cr~ctp| pe ihmkipc mp| `cdipc| ih` tc|citlb ilpmvmpmc|(

Pbc e~mhmeh| cr~tc||c` mh pbm| itpmljc itc pbc ispbet| ijehc ih` `e

hep tcojclp pbc eoomlmij vmcw| eo pbcmt mh|pmpspmeh|(

Ts||mi%HM\ Lchpct Ijj tmgbp| tc|ctvc` Motm ^itm|* 4>94

M\DH 6 =72+4+

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

9

Motm

Ispbet

Ejgi \bsk}je+Pi~meji m| i vm|mpmhg |lbejit ipLithcgmc Cste~c mh Dts||cj|* wbctc bct tc|citlboels|c| eh CS ih` Ts||mih ~ejml} pewit` Satimhc*Kej`evi* ih` Dcjits|( \bsk}je+Pi~meji m| i oetkct`mtclpet eo pbc Mhpcthipmehij Lchptc oet ^ejml} \ps`mc|*i jci`mhg mh`c~ch`chp Satimhmih pbmha piha(

Otek 4>>? pe 4>9> |bc ~itpmlm~ipc` mh pbc`cvcje~kchp eo pbc Cste~cih Lekkm||meh| @cc~

ih` Lek~tcbch|mvc Otcc Pti`c Itci oetksji "@LOPI-* jci`mhg ipcik eo Satimhmih cr~ctp| pe i||c|| pbc mk~ilp eo pbc ospstc CS+Satimhc @LOPI ih` pbc tci`mhc|| eo pbc Satimhmih gevcthkchp pemk~jckchp pbc CS+Satimhc I||elmipmeh Igch`i( Mh 4>>2 \bsk}je+Pi~meji |ctvc` mh pbc Satimhmih gevcthkchp* i`vm|mhg pbc `c~sp}~tmkc kmhm|pct eh Cste~cih mhpcgtipmeh( Dcpwcch 4>>4 ih` 4>>0 |bc|ctvc` i| i |cleh`c` cr~ctp* i`vm|mhg pbc Satimhmih Kmhm|ptmc| eoClehek} ih` Oetcmgh Iooimt| eh CS+Satimhc tcjipmeh|(

\bc bej`| i DI ih` KI otek pbc A}mv Mh|pmpspc eo MhpcthipmehijTcjipmeh|1 ih` ih K\l otek pbc Cste~cih Mh|pmpspc eo pbc Jeh`eh

\lbeej eo Clehekml|(

^tcvmes| Weta|

^spmh ih` Satimhc6 Pbc Lijk Dcoetc pbc \petk* Lekkchpit}*Lithcgmc Cste~c*94 Kitlb 4>941]ihsaev}lb ih` pbc Cste~cih Shmeh6 9 pe >* Lekkchpit}*Lithcgmc Cste~c* 44 @clckdct 4>991Lbclakipc oet ]ihsaev}lb5 Lekkchpit}* Lithcgmc Cste~c*9= Elpedct 4>991

Satimhc| \}|pckml Cttet* Lekkchpit}* Lithcgmc Cste~c* 4= Fsj}4>991Satimhc ih` Ts||mi6 Cvct Lje|ct Hcmgbdet|5 ^ejml} Espjeea*Lithcgmc Cste~c* Fshc 4>99(

Lehpilp

c+kimj6e|bsk}jepi~mejiNlcm~(etg

http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=47459http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=47459http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=47459http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=46294http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=46294http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=46294http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45750http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45750http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45750http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45188http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45188http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45188http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=44597http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=44597http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=44597mailto:oshumylotapiola@ceip.orgmailto:oshumylotapiola@ceip.orgmailto:oshumylotapiola@ceip.orgmailto:oshumylotapiola@ceip.orghttp://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=44597http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45188http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=45750http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=46294http://carnegieeurope.eu/publications/?fa=47459

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

4

Motm

Lehpchp|

MHPTE@SLPMEH ((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((( Pbc ~sdjml `cdipc ih` pbc mhpctc|p| eo Satimhc| cjmpc| (((((((((((((((((((( 4

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

|* Satimhc| clehek} omhijj} |pitpc`mp| tclevct} ih` |}|pckml tcoetk mh citj} 4>>>( Wbmjc pbc clehek}ti~m`j} gtcw d} 4>>2* mp| ptih|oetkipmeh tckimhc` shomhm|bc`( Pbcigch`i eo pbc lsttchp gevcthkchp sh`ct ^tc|m`chp _mapet]ihsaev}lb m| dcmhg `tmvch d} pbc mhpctc|p| eo i |kijj gtes~ eo~ce~jc( Pbm|* pegcpbct wmpb pbc cjclpetij l}ljc* kiac| pbci`kmhm|ptipmeh `m|mhljmhc` pe mk~jckchp ~imhosj ih` jehg+iwimpc`

|ptslpstij tcoetk|( Pbc clehekml ltm|m| eo 4>>2+4>>= ~sp Satimhc|ehj} |ckm+ptih|oetkc` clehekml ke`cj mh ysc|pmeh( Pbc lje|c`hipstc eo Satimhc| clehek} ih` bmgb `c~ch`chlc eh jew vijsc+i``c` cr~etp| itc ih sh|s|pimhidjc di|m| oet clehekml gtewpb( Petcpsth pe `esdjc+`mgmp G@^ gtewpb ih` ~sp pbc clehek} eh i ~ipb eo|s|pimhidjc `cvcje~kchp* pbc leshpt} bi| pe |cca crpcthij tc|estlc|ih` dclekc ketc e~ch( Bewcvct* Satimhc| di` mhpcthipmehijtihamhg* jila eo |sd|pihpmij hipstij tc|estlc| ih` tchp+|ccamhgclehek} `ec| hep kiac mp ih ipptilpmvc O@M `c|pmhipmeh(

Satimhc m| hew ip i lte||tei`|( Pbctc itc pbtcc ~e||mdjctei`| pe piac( Pbc omt|p* ih` jci|p ~tedidjc* m| pe |pi} eh mp| ewh ih`

lehpmhsc ds|mhc|| i| s|sij* m(c( pe tcpimh i tcjipmvcj} lje|c`clehek} lehptejjc` d} i |kijj gtes~ eo ds|mhc||kch* wmpb jmppjclek~cpmpmeh ih` jmkmpc` clehekml otcc`ek( Pbc |cleh`* ih` lsttchpj}ke|p oci|mdjc* m| pe |mgh ih I||elmipmeh Igtcckchp "II- wmpb pbc CSpbip mhljs`c| i @cc~ ih` Lek~tcbch|mvc Otcc Pti`c Igtcckchp"@LOPI-( Hcgepmipmeh| wmpb pbc CS itc hew omhijmc`6 pbc igtcckchpwi| omhijj} mhmpmijc` ip pbc ch` eo Kitlb 4>94hep wmpbesp kslblehptevct|}( Bewcvct* ostpbct |pc~|* |slb i| |mghmhg ih` tipmomlipmeheo pbc igtcckchp `c~ch` |ejcj} eh pbc Satimhmih |m`c( Pbc pbmt`* ih`ke|p lehptevct|mij* lbemlc m| pe femh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh wmpb Ts||mi*Dcjits| ih` Aiiab|pih ih` ckdita eh ostpbct Ke|lew+jc`mhpcgtipmeh ~tefclp|(

Satimhc| lbemlc wmjj hep ehj} iooclp pti`c ojew| wmpb mp| pwehcmgbdet|( Mp wmjj ij|e mh`mlipc pbc |~cc` ih` `mtclpmeh eo |ptslpstijtcoetk|* et jila pbctceo( Satimhc| lbemlc wmjj ij|e bivc ih mk~ilp eh

Ih citjmct vct|meh eo pbm| ~i~ct wi| ~tc|chpc` ip i lehoctchlc etgihmc` d} Motm mh pbcotikcweta eo pbc Csti|mih Pti`c Pi|a Oetlc "CPPO-* 97 Elpedct 4>99( Pbc CPPOi``tc||c| pbc `mooctchp lekkctlmij ih` clehekml mhpcgtipmeh ~tefclp| mh Csti|mi ih`pbcmt mk~ilp eh `ekc|pml ih` oetcmgh ~ejmlmc| eo pbc |pipc| lehlcthc`(

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

0

Motm

pbc CS ih` Ts||mi( Satimhc m| i ac} leshpt} wmpbmh pbc CS| Ci|pcth^itphct|bm~ mhmpmipmvc "Ci^-( Mp m| omt|p eo ijj pbc jitgc|p leshpt} mh pbcCi^ tcgmeh wmpb i ~e~sjipmeh eo oetp}+|mr kmjjmeh( Mp m| ij|e pbc leshpt}pbip mhmpmijj} bi` pbc dmggc|p hskdct eo |s~~etpct| ikehg pbc CSkckdct |pipc|( Satimhc wi| pbc omt|p leshpt} pe dc eooctc` `cc~clehekml mhpcgtipmeh ih` ~ejmpmlij i||elmipmeh wmpb pbc CS( Wmpbmh pbc^itphct|bm~* pbc CS mhvc|pc` leh|m`ctidjc ~ejmpmlij li~mpij eh Satimhcih` pbc CS+Satimhc II%@LOPI wmjj |ctvc i| i ke`cj oet tcjipmeh|wmpb epbct Ci^ leshptmc|(

Oet Ts||mi* |ptmvmhg pe tcdsmj` i lje|cj} jmhac` clehekml itciwmpbmh pbc ~e|p+\evmcp |~ilc* Satimhc ~ji}| i ac} tejc( WmpbespSatimhc* pbc ~e|p+\evmcp |~ilc| |cleh` jitgc|p clehek}* pbcLs|pek| Shmeh ih` ostpbct mhpcgtipmeh ~tefclp| ki} dc sh|s|pimhidjcmh pbc jehg pctk(

Evct pbc ~i|p kehpb|* Satimhc| jci`ct|bm~ bi| tc~cipc`j}

lehomtkc` pbc leshpt}| mhpctc|p mh |mghmhg ih` tipmo}mhg pbcI||elmipmeh Igtcckchp wmpb pbc CS( Kcihwbmjc* Ts||mi| mhvmpipmeh pefemh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh bi| dcch leh|m|pchpj}* dsp ~ejmpcj} `cljmhc`(Bewcvct* kih} Wc|pcth ih` Ts||mih ed|ctvct| |pmjj ysc|pmeh pbcmttcvct|mdmjmp} ih` ltc`mdmjmp} eo pbm| `clm|meh( Pbc kckdct|bm~ mh pbcLs|pek| Shmeh ki} dtmhg lbci~ Ts||mih gi| pbip eoomlmij A}mv m| mh`mtc hcc` eo( Satimhmih eoomlmij| ij|e acc~ kiamhg tcoctchlc| pe pbcLs|pek| Shmeh depb mh ~sdjml `cdipc| ih` ~tmvipc lehvct|ipmeh| wmpbpbc CS eoomlmij|(9

Pbc `clm|meh eo wbmlb ~ipb pe piac bi| }cp pe dc piach*bewcvct( Wbch pbc pmkc lekc|* mp wmjj dc ki`c d} ~tc|m`chp]ihsaev}lb ijehc( Shoetpshipcj} oet Satimhc* mp wmjj hep dc ki`cdi|c` eh cr~ctpm|c ih` lijlsjipmeh| eo pbc hipmehij mhpctc|p1 tipbct* mpwmjj dc mhoetkc` d} oilpet| pbc mhpctc|p| eo pbc ~tc|m`chp ih` bm|chpestigc(

9Mhpctvmcw| wmpb bmgb jcvcj eoomlmij|* A}mv* oijj 4>99(

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

3

Motm

CS Eooct6 Mhpcgtipmeh wmpb Jehg+Pctk Dchcomp|

Pbc Cste~cih Shmeh bi| jehg dcch ih mk~etpihp pti`mhg ~itphct oetSatimhc* wmpb cr~etp| ih` O@M otek mp| kckdct |pipc| mhltci|mhg`tikipmlijj} dcpwcch 9=== ih` 4>>2( @c|~mpc pbc 4>>2+4>>= omhihlmij ltm|m|* pbc CS tckimhc` Satimhc| dmggc|p pti`mhg~itphct wmpb i 40 Etihgc tcvejspmeh |bmopc` pbc ~ctlc~pmeh eo Satimhcwmpbmh pbc CS( Hep mh i ~e|mpmeh pe eooct i kckdct|bm~ ~ct|~clpmvc*pbc CS |sggc|pc` `cc~ct lehptilpsij tcjipmeh|( Pbc lehptilpjipct`sddc` pbc I||elmipmeh Igtcckchp "II-wi| |s~~e|c` pe tc~jilcpbc tipbct vigsc 9==2 ^itphct|bm~ ih` Lee~ctipmeh Igtcckchp pbip*pegcpbct wmpb pbc ~tevm|meh| eo pbc Gchctijmc` \}|pck eo^tcoctchlc|* `comhc` CS+Satimhc tcjipmeh|( Pbc hcw igtcckchpimkc` ip Satimhc| ~ejmpmlij i||elmipmeh ih` clehekml mhpcgtipmeh wmpbpbc CS(

4\pipm|pml| otek @G Pti`c*

:bpp~6%%pti`c(cl(cste~i(cs%`eljmd%`el|%4>>?%|c~pckdct%pti`elU99>0%93* 4>>0*:www(csm(cs%T\LI\%W^+Pcrp|%>0U93(~`o81 F( Jihgdcmh Etgihmmhg Tcgsjipet}Lehvctgchlc Esp|m`c pbc CS* Wetamhg ^i~ct* AOG Otcmc Shmvct|mpip Dctjmh*@clckdct 4>99* :bpp~6%%s|ct~igc(os+dctjmh(`c%aogcs%aogw~%w~|ctmc|%Wetamhg^i~ctAOGU

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

?

Motm

Hcgepmipmeh| eh pbc II wctc jishlbc` mh Ocdtsit} 4>>7 wmpbpbtcc lbi~pct|eh ~ejmpmlij* fs`mlmij ih` |clpetij lee~ctipmehe~chc` mkkc`mipcj}( Satimhc femhc` WPE mh Ocdtsit} 4>>2* ijjewmhgpbc jishlb eo hcgepmipmeh| eh i @LOPI(

Iopct i ots|ptipmhg |pijckipc mh @LOPI hcgepmipmeh| mh 4>>2+4>>=* pbc CS ih` Satimhc omhijmc` pbc pija| mh Elpedct 4>99( Otek ipclbhmlij ~emhp eo vmcw* pbc `cij m| ijtci`} `ehc( Dts||cj| ih` A}mvmhmpmijc` pbc igtcckchp mh Kitlb 4>94* ~tcvchpmhg ostpbctke`momlipmeh| pe pbc pctk|( Bewcvct* pbc hcrp |pc~|* |slb i| |mghmhgih` tipmomlipmeh mh pbc Cste~cih ^itjmikchp ih` 47 CS kckdct |pipc|~itjmikchp| itc mh ysc|pmeh(

Pbc CS bi| i hskdct eo tci|eh| pe dc lehlcthc` idespSatimhc| `mtclpmeh( Omt|pj}* pbc CS m| lehlcthc` idesp pbc |pipc eo`ckeltil} mh Satimhc wmpb i hskdct eo ac} e~~e|mpmeh jci`ct| ih`pbcmt ijjmc| dcmhg ~te|clspc`* |cckmhgj} eh ~ejmpmlij gtesh`|( Wmpbesp

i ~te~ct tc|~eh|c otek eoomlmij A}mv "m(c( tc|ejspmeh eo ~ejmpmlijj}kepmvipc` li|c| igimh|p pbc e~~e|mpmeh* ~te~ct leh|pmpspmehij tcoetkih` pbc leh`slp eo otcc ih` oimt cjclpmeh| mh Elpedct 4>94-* pbc CSki} bivc he epbct lbemlc dsp pe ~sp pbc |mghmhg eo pbc II%@LOPI ehbej`( A}mv| omhij `clm|meh m| ~tc|chpj} `moomlsjp pe ~tc`mlp( \cleh`j}* mpm| shlctpimh bew Satimhc wmjj tcilp pe Ts||mi| eooct pe femh pbcLs|pek| Shmeh( Pbc CS sh`ct|pih`| pbip pbc Satimhmih jci`ct|bm~ m|hew mh `mtc hcc` eo lbci~ct gi|* ih` `ec| hep ahew bew tc|m|pihpSatimhc m| mh tcijmp} pe Ts||mi| pbtcip|(

Pbc lehlc~psij otikcweta ih` pbc |le~c eo pbc @LOPI wctcdi|c` eh pbc 4>>0 Oci|mdmjmp} \ps`} lek~mjc` d} i gtes~ eo Cste~cihih` Satimhmih clehekm|p|(0 Pbc |ps`} |sggc|pc` pbip Satimhc|clehekml gtewpb lesj` he jehgct `c~ch` eh bmgb `ckih` ih` bmgb~tmlc| oet kcpijjstgmlij ~te`slp| "ehc eo Satimhc| ac} cr~etp|- mhwetj` kitacp|( I ketc e~ch ih` ptih|~itchp clehek} wmpb ioivetidjc ds|mhc|| ljmkipc ih` dcppct gevcthihlc wi| hcc`c` pekiac Satimhmih mh`s|ptmc| ketc lek~cpmpmvc* ih` ch|stc |s|pimhidjcclehekml gtewpb(

Illet`mhg pe pbc |ps`}* pbm| lesj` hep dc ilbmcvc` pbtesgb|mk~jc otcc pti`c "m(c( ostpbct cjmkmhipmeh eo |mk~jc pti`c dittmct|-* i|~e|p+WPE chpt}* Satimhc wi| chpctmhg @LOPI pija| wmpb mk~etp`spmc| oet igtmlsjpstij ih` mh`s|ptmij ~te`slp| ijtci`} jewctc` pe9>(??# ih` 0(=3# tc|~clpmvcj}*3 cr~etp pitmoo| |lbc`sjc` oet gti`sij

tc`slpmeh* cr~etp ysepi| dcmhg cjmkmhipc` eh depb |m`c|* ih` 2>+=>#

0LC^\* MOW / ML^\* Pbc ^te|~clp| eo @cc~ Otcc Pti`c dcpwcch pbc CS ih`

Satimhc* 4>>?*:bpp~6%%icm(~mpp(c`s%2*:www(wpe(etg%chgjm|b%pbcwpeUc%illUc%i9UsatimhcUc(bpk8(

http://aei.pitt.edu/32595/1/34._Prospect_of_Deep_Free_Trade_between_the_EU_and_Ukraine.pdfhttp://aei.pitt.edu/32595/1/34._Prospect_of_Deep_Free_Trade_between_the_EU_and_Ukraine.pdfhttp://aei.pitt.edu/32595/1/34._Prospect_of_Deep_Free_Trade_between_the_EU_and_Ukraine.pdfhttp://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/a1_ukraine_e.htmhttp://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/a1_ukraine_e.htmhttp://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/acc_e/a1_ukraine_e.htmhttp://aei.pitt.edu/32595/1/34._Prospect_of_Deep_Free_Trade_between_the_EU_and_Ukraine.pdfhttp://aei.pitt.edu/32595/1/34._Prospect_of_Deep_Free_Trade_between_the_EU_and_Ukraine.pdf

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

7

Motm

eo pbc |ctvmlc| |clpet lekkmppc` pe osjj jmdctijmipmeh(? Pbs| pbc hcwCS+Satimhc pti`c `cij wi| |s~~e|c` pe ge ostpbct* dc `cc~ct "m(c(`cij wmpb dcbmh`+pbc+det`ct ed|piljc| pe pti`c pbtesgb pbc i`e~pmeh eopbc CS pti`c ilysm|-* ih` ketc lek~tcbch|mvc* "m(c( levct pti`c mhgee`| ih` |ctvmlc|-( Pbm| wesj` mk~j} pbc mk~jckchpipmeh eo CShetk|* |pih`it`| ih` ~tilpmlc| pbtesgb mh|pmpspmeh+dsmj`mhg(

Mh clehekml pctk|* |slb i ke`cj wi| hep hevcj pe pbc CS(\mkmjit pija| wctc bcj` d} pbc Shmeh wmpb Lbmjc7 ih` jipct eh wmpb\espb Aetci(2 Pbc OPI| wmpb pbc|c leshptmc| ij|e chvm|mehc` pbci~~termkipmeh eo |pih`it`| ih` hetk|( Bewcvct* i| pbc|c leshptmc|`m` hep i|~mtc oet CS kckdct|bm~* depb wctc otcc pe lbee|c pbc`cgtcc eo lek~jmihlc wmpb pbc CS pti`c ilysm|( I~~termkipmeh wesj`ke|pj} bi~~ch mh itci| pbip bivc i `mtclp cooclp eh pti`c wmpb pbc CS(

Pbc CS+Satimhc @LOPI lih tesgbj} dc `mvm`c` mhpe pwe ~itp|6i pitmoo eooct ih` pbc i`e~pmeh eo pbc CS pti`c ilysm|( Pbc oetkct wi|

dsmjp eh Satimhc| WPE lekkmpkchp|* m(c( jew mk~etp `spmc| ih` itipbct jmdctijmc` |ctvmlc| |clpet( Gmvch pbm|* pbc pitmoo eooct pija| wctc|s~~e|c` pe illeshp oet idesp ehj} 9># eo pbc evctijj @LOPIigch`i( ]cp pbc mhpctc|p| eo |ekc Satimhmih mh`s|ptmc| "c(g(ispekedmjc- ih` pbc igtmlsjpstij jedd} psthc` pbc pitmoo eooct pija| mhpepbc kimh dippjcgtesh` dcpwcch pbc CS ih` Satimhc( \cvctij pmkc|iopct Ocdtsit} 4>>2* pbc CS wi| lje|c pe ~sppmhg hcgepmipmeh| ehbej`(=

Hcgepmipmeh| eh pbc `cc~ ih` lek~tcbch|mvc ~itp wctc bcj`wmpbmh pbc oejjewmhg wetamhg |sd+gtes~|6 pti`c ih` |s|pimhidjc`cvcje~kchp1 tsjc| eo etmgmh1 |ctvmlc|1 li~mpij ih` c|pidjm|bkchp1mhpcjjclpsij ~te~ctp} tmgbp|1 gcegti~bml mh`mlipmeh|1 ls|pek| ih` pti`coilmjmpipmeh1 ~sdjml ~telstckchp1 lek~cpmpmeh6 ihpm+pts|p1 lek~cpmpmeh6|pipc im`1 |ihmpit} ih` ~b}pe|ihmpit} |pih`it`|1 pti`c tcjipc` chctg}m||sc|1 `m|~spc |cppjckchp1 ptih|~itchl}1 otis`1 pti`c `coch|ckclbihm|k|1 ih` pclbhmlij dittmct| pe pti`c(9>

Otek pbc vct} pmpjc| eo pbc|c |sdgtes~| mp m| ~e||mdjc pelehljs`c pbip pbc ospstc @LOPI wesj` bivc i tipbct wm`c levctigc(Bewcvct* pbc `cgtcc eo Satimhc| lek~jmihlc wmpb pbc CS ilysm| mhpbc|c itci| wi| ihepbct `moomlsjp m||sc mh pbc hcgepmipmeh|( Mhmpmijj}* pbcCS |sggc|pc` pbip Satimhc i| i heh+lih`m`ipc leshpt} bi` i tmgbp pe

?Mh|pmpspc eo Clehekml Tc|citlb* Le|p| ih` dchcomp| eo OPI dcpwcch Satimhc ih`

pbc Cste~cih Shmeh* A}mv* 4>9>*:www(mct(lek(si%omjc|%Deea|%ElmhaiUv}ptip%elmhaiUvmptipUchg(~`o8(7

I||elmipmeh Igtcckchp pija| wctc lek~jcpc` mh 4>>4* OPI chpctc` mhpe oetlc mh4>>>7* pbc IIwi| |mghc` mh Elpedct 4>9>* OPI ~tevm|mehijj} i~~jmc` otek Fsj} 4>99(=

Mhpctvmcw wmpb Cwi \mhewmcl* CS lbmco hcgepmipet eh CS+Satimhc @LOPI*Aekkct|ihp Satimhc* Elpedct 4>9>* :bpp~6%%aekkct|ihp(si%`el%934>>==8(9>

Femhp tc~etp eh @LOPI hcgepmipmeh|* 2 Hevckdct 4>9>*:bpp~6%%cci|(cste~i(cs%satimhc%`el|%femhpU~tegtc||Utc~etp0Ui||elmipmehUch(~`o8(

http://www.ier.com.ua/files/Books/Ocinka_vytrat/ocinka_vitrat_eng.pdfhttp://www.ier.com.ua/files/Books/Ocinka_vytrat/ocinka_vitrat_eng.pdfhttp://kommersant.ua/doc/1520099http://kommersant.ua/doc/1520099http://kommersant.ua/doc/1520099http://eeas.europa.eu/ukraine/docs/joint_progress_report4_association_en.pdfhttp://eeas.europa.eu/ukraine/docs/joint_progress_report4_association_en.pdfhttp://eeas.europa.eu/ukraine/docs/joint_progress_report4_association_en.pdfhttp://eeas.europa.eu/ukraine/docs/joint_progress_report4_association_en.pdfhttp://kommersant.ua/doc/1520099http://www.ier.com.ua/files/Books/Ocinka_vytrat/ocinka_vitrat_eng.pdf

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

2

Motm

lbee|c pbc `cgtcc eo lek~jmihlc mh pbc kifetmp} eo itci|( @mvctgmhgotek pbc cr~ctmchlc eo epbct ~itphct|* Satimhc ch`c` s~ bivmhgtipbct jmkmpc` mhojschlc* wmpb pbc CS bivmhg i ljcit* heh+hcgepmidjc jm|peo lekkmpkchp| `ckih`c` otek pbc leshpt}( Ojcrmdmjmp} wi| ~e||mdjcehj} mh i ocw itci|* oet mh|pihlc* chvmtehkchpij ~ejml}* wbctcmk~jckchpmhg pbc CS ilysm| m| cr~ch|mvc ih` wbctc cvch illc||mehleshptmc| bivc bi` jehg ptih|mpmeh ~ctme`|(99 Ijj lekkmpkchp|mhljs`mhg pbc |le~c eo lek~jmihlc ih` pbc pmkcjmhc oet pbcmk~jckchpipmeh pegcpbct wmpb ptih|mpmeh ~ctme`| wctc ~sp mh pbcihhcrc| pe pbc @LOPI ~itp eo pbc I||elmipmeh Igtcckchp(94

@LOPI6 ~epchpmij le|p| ih` dchcomp|

I hskdct eo |ejm` |ps`mc| wctc ~te`slc` dcpwcch 9=== ih` 4>9> d}Satimhmih ih` mhpcthipmehij cr~ctp| eh pbc oci|mdmjmp} ih` mk~ilp eo iospstc CS+Satimhc @LOPI( Pbc} bmgbjmgbp pbc dchcomp| eo |slb ihigtcckchp oet depb ~itpmc|( Pbc c|pmkipc| ~tevm`c` d} pbc 4>>0 CS+osh`c` Oci|mdmjmp} \ps`} ih` lehomtkc` d} pbc 4>>7 Mk~ilpI||c||kchp |sggc|pc` pbip pbc @LOPI wesj` `cjmvct wcjoitc gimh|eo pbc et`ct eo 0+7#* ih` lehljs`c` pbip mh pbc jehg tsh pbc|c gimh|lesj` dc `esdjc` et ptm~jc`(9< Depb |ps`mc| ij|e |sggc|pc` pbip pbctc`slpmeh eo li~mpij le|p| wesj` jci` pe ostpbct 0+3# wcjoitc gimh|*ih` pbc mk~tevckchp eo mh|pmpspmeh| mh Satimhc wesj` mhltci|c pbcleshpt}| G@^ mh pbc tihgc eo 4> pe #( \ps`mc| leh`slpc` d}jci`mhg Satimhmih pbmha+piha| |s~~etpc` pbm| d} lehljs`mhg pbip pbc@LOPI wesj` |pmksjipc tcij G@^ gtewpb ih` mh pbc jehg tsh mk~tevc

pbc wcjoitc eo bes|cbej`|(90

Illet`mhg pe pbc|c Satimhmih cr~ctp|* pbc ysihpmpipmvc dchcomp|

wesj` ij|e dc |s~~etpc` d} depb ~e|mpmvc ih` hcgipmvc ysijmpipmvclbihgc| mh pbc |betp ih` jehg tsh( Pbctc wesj` dc he ljcit je|ct| etwmhhct| i| pbc le|p| eo @LOPI wesj` dc |bitc` d} pbc |pipc*ds|mhc|| ih` leh|skct|( Ip pbc |ikc pmkc* ysihpmpipmvc dchcomp|wctc `cckc` ketc jmacj} pe dc cr~ctmchlc` mh pbc kc`msk ih` jehgpctk gmvch 3+9> }cit ptih|mpmeh ~ctme`| oet pbc mk~jckchpipmeh eolctpimh hetk| ih` |pih`it`| i| wcjj i| oet |mk~jc pti`c tc|ptmlpmeh|hcgepmipc` d} pbc CS ih` Satimhc( Le|p| tcjipc` pe lek~jmihlc ih`e~chmhg* bewcvct* wesj` jmacj} ckctgc mh pbc |betp ih` kc`msk pctk*`sc pe tcoetk eo mh|pmpspmeh| et pbc ltcipmeh eo hcw ehc| "c(g( |ihmpit}

99Mhpctvmcw| wmpb Satimhmih gevcthkchp eoomlmij|* A}mv* \c~pckdct 4>9>(

94Lithcgmc Cste~c%Mh|pmpspc eo Wetj` ^ejmpml| Satimhc vm`ce lehoctchlc eh pbc CS+

Satimhc @LOPI* Fshc 4>9>9>7*:bpp~6%%pti`c(cl(cste~i(cs%`eljmd%`el|%4>>7%fshc%pti`elU933(~`o8(90

MCT* e~( lmp( Q?[(

http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2007/june/tradoc_135055.pdfhttp://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2007/june/tradoc_135055.pdfhttp://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2007/june/tradoc_135055.pdfhttp://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2007/june/tradoc_135055.pdf

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

=

Motm

ih` ~b}pe|ihmpit} |pih`it`|* lek~cpmpmeh ~ejml}-(

Pidjc 9( Le|p| ih` dchcomp| eo pbc CS+Satimhc @LOPI

Dchcomp| Le|p|

\pipc ^ejmpmlij hcsptijmp} eo pbc~tefclp* ketc ~tc`mlpidjclest|c eo leshpt}|`cvcje~kchp

Mk~tevc` pti`c wmpb pbc CS

Ketc O@M* ke`cthmipmeh

Bmgbct ds|mhc|| ilpmvmp}*mhltci|c` pir tcvchsc|

Le|p| eo lek~jmihlc wmpbCS ilysm| oet pbc |pipc

^e||mdjc lje|mhg `ewh eods|mhc|| mh |ekc |clpet|ih` fed je||c| tc|sjpmhg mh|elmij `m|lehpchp

Lek~cpmpmeh oet O@M* le|p|eo ke`cthmipmeh pbip ki} dcbmgbct pbih ivimjidjcmhvc|pkchp|

Ds|mhc|| Dcppct illc|| pe pbc tmlbc|pkitacp eo 3>> kmjjmehleh|skct|

Dcppct `ekc|pml ds|mhc||ljmkipc oet ijj* ketcptih|~itchl}

Ketc lek~cpmpmvc Satimhmihgee`| eh mhpcthipmehijkitacp mh jehg tsh

E~chmhg eo hcw ds|mhc||e~~etpshmpmc|* |slb i| CS~sdjml ~telstckchp

Le|p| eo lek~jmihlc wmpbCS |pih`it`| oet ds|mhc||"mh`mvm`sij ih` |bitc` wmpbpbc |pipc-

Le|p| oet tchp+|ccact| ih`pbe|c wbe dchcomp pbtesgbletts~pmeh ih` tc` pi~c

^e||mdjc lje|mhg `ewh eo|ekc ds|mhc|| "`c~ch`mhgeh pbc |clpet-

Bmgbct le|p| eo lek~jmihlcoet pbc |pipc ih` ds|mhc|| mhpbc |betp tsh

Bmgbct le|p| eo lek~jmihlcoet ds|mhc|| "`c~ch`mhg ehpbc |clpet-

Bmgbct lek~cpmpmeh wmpbmhSatimhmih ~sdjml ~telstckchp`sc pe ~itpmlm~ipmeh eo CSlek~ihmc|

Leh|skct| Dcppct ysijmp} ih` ketc`mvct|momc` ~te`slp| ih`|ctvmlc|

^e||mdjc bmgbct ~tmlc| oetgee`| ih` |ctvmlc| mh |betppctk

Mhltci|c mh gi~ dcpwcchwigc| eo |amjjc` ih`

sh|amjjc` jidet* ~e||mdjc fedje||c| ih` `cljmhmhg mhlekc|

\estlc6 Ispbet| ihij}|m| di|c` eh MCT "4>>?* 4>9>- ih` ML^\ "4>>?- |ps`mc|(

Pbc pidjc idevc ~tevm`c| i gchctij evctvmcw eo pbc dchcomp|ih` le|p| oet pbc Satimhmih |pipc* ds|mhc||c| ih` leh|skct|(Satimhmih cr~ctp| itgsc pbip evctijj pbc @LOPI wmjj bivc i ~e|mpmvcmk~ilp eh pbc clehek}* ih` pbip dchcomp| wmjj espwcmgb pbc le|p|(I|m`c otek ketc gchctij le|p| ih` dchcomp|* pbctc wmjj dc |clpet ih`mh`s|pt} |~clmoml mk~jmlipmeh|( Mh pbc id|chlc eo pbc omhij ~sdjmlj}ivimjidjc pcrp eo pbc @LOPI "ih` pbc lje|c` hipstc eo pbc pija|-* |slb

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

9>

Motm

mk~jmlipmeh| wctc |mksjipc` d} pbc Satimhmih cr~ctp|( Gmvch pbcjmkmpc` oetkip eo pbm| ~sdjmlipmeh* ehj} ehc le|p ih` dchcomp ihij}|m| m|~tevm`c` dcjew( Mp lehlcth| pbc mhpte`slpmeh eo pbc CS ilysm| mh ehcac} i|~clp eo pbc ds|mhc|| chvmtehkchp6 lek~ih} jiw(

Pidjc 4( Le|p| ih` dchcomp| eo pbc mk~jckchpipmeh eo Lek~ih} jiw

Le|p| Dchcomp|

\pipc Bmgb i`kmhm|ptipmvc le|p|oet ltcipmeh eo pbc ~sdjmlj}e~ch hipmehij tcgm|ptipmeh|}|pck oet lek~ihmc|*|~clmijmc` lestp oetmhpcjjclpsij ~te~ctp} kippct|(Lek~cpmpmvc `m|i`vihpigcotek jewct `m|lje|stctcysmtckchp| mh oetcmghlek~cpmpet|' bekcleshptmc|( Bmgb le|p| eojcgij lee~ctipmeh mh |ekcmhpcthipmehij i|~clp| eodihats~pl}(

Ketc cooclpmvc ijjelipmeh eoli~mpij ih` O@M gtewpb(Illc|| pe pbc jewct le|p eoli~mpij ih` ketc jmysm`omhihlmij mh|ptskchp|(Chbihlc` coomlmchl} oteklek~cpmpmeh( Mhltci|c`mhpcgtipmeh pe pbc Cste~cih|elmij ih` clehekml |}|pck(

Gtcipct lehom`chlc eomhvc|pet| mh pbc |pidjcotikcweta eh pbc Satimhmihkitacp(

Ds|mhc|| Lek~cpmpmvc `m|i`vihpigcotek mhoetkipmeh `m|lje|stc(Bmgb le|p| eo mhpte`slpmeh eoMhpcthipmehij Illeshpmhg\pih`it`| "MI\-*Mhpcthipmehij OmhihlmijTc~etpmhg \pih`it`| "MTO\-ih` pbcmt ~ctkihchp s|c(

Bmgb le|p| eo |pipspet}is`mp ih` ijj pbc `sc`mjmgchlc lbcla|(Ditgimhmhg `m|i`vihpigcotek pbc `m|lje|stc pe|s~~jmct| ih` ls|pekct|(

Jewct ivctigc le|p eoli~mpij( Illc|| pe ketc jmysm`kitacp|( Ivem`c` jmpmgipmehijjcgmhg mhi`cysipcmhoetkipmvc `m|lje|stc(Ditgimhmhg i`vihpigc otekls|pekct|' ih` |s~~jmct|'mhoetkipmvc `m|lje|stc( Bmgbct

jcvcj eo ~te~ctp} tmgbp|~tepclpmeh `sc pe mhpcthipmehijlee~ctipmeh(

Leh|skct| Jewct ivctigc le|p eoli~mpij( Illc|| pe ketcjmysm` kitacp|( Ivem`c`jmpmgipmeh ijjcgmhgmhi`cysipc mhoetkipmvc`m|lje|stc( Ditgimhmhg

i`vihpigc otek ls|pekct|'ih` |s~~jmct|' mhoetkipmvc`m|lje|stc( Bmgbct jcvcj eo~te~ctp} tmgbp| ~tepclpmeh`sc pe mhpcthipmehijlee~ctipmeh(

Pbc leh|skct ~tepclpmeh~tevm`c` d} mhoetkipmvc`m|lje|stc

\estlc6 MCT mk~ilp i||c||kchp "4>>7-

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

99

Motm

Satimhmih `cdipc eh pbc @LOPI

I tclchp |ps`} d} i gtes~ eo Satimhc |lbejit| hepc` pbip Satimhmihhcgepmipet| pch` pe dc e~ch pe lekkmppmhg pbc leshpt} pe tcjipmvcj}|sd|pihpmij lek~jmihlc wmpb CS hetk| ih` |pih`it`|(93 Pbc |ps`}ihij}c` pbc mk~jckchpipmeh eo pbc CS+Satimhc Ilpmeh ^jih "4>>0+4>>2- ih` pbc CS+Satimhc I||elmipmeh Igch`i "4>>= ehgemhg-(Illet`mhg pe CS hcgepmipet|* |slb lehljs|meh| lih dc crpch`c` pehcgepmipmeh| eh pbc CS+Satimhc @LOPI(9?

Pbm| lih dc cr~jimhc` d} pbc evctijj |s~~etp oet Cste~cihmhpcgtipmeh `cljitc` d} pe~ ~ejmpmlij jcvcj| eo depb pbc ]ihsaev}lb ih`]s|blbchae i`kmhm|ptipmeh|( Mh 4>>?* Satimhc| jci`ct|bm~ wcjlekc`pbc m`ci eo `cc~ct clehekml ih` ~ejmpmlij tcjipmeh| wmpb pbc CS( Pbctipmomlipmeh eo Satimhc| WPE illc||meh ~tepelej* wm`cj} |cch i| iomt|p |pc~ pewit`| lje|ct pmc| wmpb pbc CS* wi| |s~~etpc` d} 099 K^|

eo pbc 03> mh pbc Satimhmih ~itjmikchp( Pbc lsttchp gevcthkchp|4>9>+4>90 tcoetk ~tegtik dmjjc` pbc CS+Satimhc @LOPI i| i|ptipcgml geij oet Satimhc(97Pbc ~tc|m`chp| `tiop jiw eh pbc ~tmhlm~jc|eo mhpcthij ih` crpcthij ~ejml} `comhc` pbc geij eo edpimhmhg CSkckdct|bm~ ~ct|~clpmvc ih` pbc mk~jckchpipmeh eo @LOPIlekkmpkchp| i| i oetcmgh ~ejml} ~tmhlm~jc(92 Ji|pj}* Satimhc|~itjmikchp i`e~pc` i tc|ejspmeh eh pbc ti~m` lek~jcpmeh eo @LOPIpija| wmpb pbc CS `stmhg pbc crptiet`mhit} |c||meh Eh pbc |pipc ih`~te|~clp| eo cvcje~kchp eo clehekml tcjipmeh| dcpwcch Satimhc* pbcCS "OPI- ih` pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh bcj` mh Ki} 4>99(

Kih} mh Satimhc| ~ejmpmlij cjmpc |cc pbc II%@LOPI i| i

|}kdej eo Satimhc| ~termkmp} pe pbc CS tipbct pbih i| i |cp eo jcgijj}dmh`mhg lekkmpkchp| ih` |~clmoml kci|stc| eo i`i~pipmeh(9= ]cp* pbcigtcckchp m| hep |cch i| chesgb* wmpb ih CS kckdct|bm~~ct|~clpmvc tckimhmhg pbc sjpmkipc geij( \ekc ~ejmpmlmih| wesj` jmacpe |cc pbc lek~jcpmeh eo pbc pija| `stmhg pbcmt pchstc* i| pbc} dcjmcvcmp wesj` wmh pbck i``mpmehij vepc|( Pbm| m| c|~clmijj} mk~etpihp oet pbc^itp} eo pbc Tcgmeh| "pbc lsttchp tsjmhg ~itp}-* i| mp bi| eopch dcch~ctlcmvc` i| i ~te+Ts||mih ih` |ekcpmkc| ihpm+jmdctij ilpet mhSatimhc| ~ejmpml|(

Wbch mp lekc| pe pbc mk~jckchpipmeh eo Satimhc| Cste~cihlekkmpkchp|* pbc lsttchp jci`ct|bm~ mh A}mv |st~tm|mhgj} |cc| pbc

93F( Wejlsa ih` A( Jihgdcmh* Lehvctgchlc wmpbesp kckdct|bm~5 Pbc Mk~ilp eo

pbc Cste~cih Shmeh mh pbc Hcmgbdetbee`6 Cvm`chlc otek Satimhc* Festhij eoCste~cih ^sdjml ^ejml}* \c~pckdct 4>99(9?

Mhpctvmcw wmpb CS hcgepmipet|* \c~pckdct 4>99(97

Gevcthkchp tcoetk ~tegtik 4>9>+4>90(92

Jiw eh pbc ~tmhlm~jc| eo mhpcthij ih` crpcthij ~ejml}* 4>9>(9=

@m|ls||meh| wmpb tc~tc|chpipmvc| eo Satimhmih K^|* dmg ds|mhc|| mh depb A}mv ih`pbc tcgmeh| eo Satimhc(

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

94

Motm

@LOPI i| ih i ji litpc crctlm|c(4> Bivmhg i tclet` eo ~eetmk~jckchpipmeh eo mhpcthipmehij lekkmpkchp|* `sc pe pbc ~tc|chlc eokih} ds|mhc|| mhpctc|p| mh|m`c pbc ~itjmikchp ih` |ptehg jmha|dcpwcch pbc i`kmhm|ptipmeh ih` dmg ds|mhc||* Satimhc bi| ijj ~tc+tcysm|mpc| pe ~ctoetk di`j} wmpb pbc mk~jckchpipmeh eo @LOPIlekkmpkchp|( Mh i``mpmeh* pbc leshpt} bi| vct} jew mh|pmpspmehijli~ilmp} pbip ki} mk~c`c mk~jckchpipmeh* illet`mhg pe cr~ctp|(49

Pbc cjmpc|* pbc jelij ds|mhc|| ih` pbc ~sdjml ip jitgc tckimhwm`cj} shoikmjmit wmpb pbc tcij lehpchp eo pbc @LOPI( Pbc CS m|i||elmipc` wmpb ~te|~ctmp} ih` otcc`ek| "mhljs`mhg clehekmlotcc`ek|-* ih` evctijj ~sdjml |s~~etp oet CS mhpcgtipmeh tckimh| ip3>+?>#44 "ih` m| iooclpc` ketc d} `ekc|pml `cvcje~kchp| pbih CSilpmeh|-( Pbc ~sdjml ip jitgc `ec| hep bivc `cpimjc` mhoetkipmeh idesppbc @LOPI( Eh pbc ehc bih`* pbm| lih dc ipptmdspc` pe pbc lje|c`hipstc eo pbc hcgepmipmeh| wmpb pbc `tiop igtcckchp dcmhg lehom`chpmij(Eh pbc epbct* pbc ~sdjml m| shjmacj} pe gcp mhpctc|pc` mh pbc `cpimj| eo

clehekml mhpcgtipmeh* occjmhg jmppjc pts|p mh ih} gevcthkchp ilpmvmpmc|ih` dcmhg wettmc` idesp pbcmt ewh |betp+pctk |stvmvij tipbct pbih|ptipcgml ~tefclp|(4>>+4>99-* :bpp~6%%tiskaev(etg(si%chg%~ejj(~b~5~ejjUm`;738(40

Hcw|~i~ct 4>>>* :www(gicpi(hcp(si8(

http://www.icps.com.ua/files/articles/57/50/SIDA_2010_ENG.pdfhttp://www.icps.com.ua/files/articles/57/50/SIDA_2010_ENG.pdfhttp://razumkov.org.ua/eng/poll.php?poll_id=75http://razumkov.org.ua/eng/poll.php?poll_id=75http://www.gazeta.net.ua/http://www.gazeta.net.ua/http://www.gazeta.net.ua/http://razumkov.org.ua/eng/poll.php?poll_id=75http://www.icps.com.ua/files/articles/57/50/SIDA_2010_ENG.pdf

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

92(+4>99 pe cr~jimhpbc ~epchpmij eo @LOPI(2-* 9= Ki} 4>>2(

8/2/2019 Ukraine at the Crossroads: Between the EU DCFTA & Customs Union

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

93

Motm

WPE kckdct|bm~(

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

9?

Motm

Ts||mi| Eooct pe Satimhc

Ts||mi+Satimhmih tcjipmeh|

\mhlc pbc lejji~|c eo pbc \evmcp Shmeh* Satimhc+Ts||mi tcjipmeh| bivcdcch |ch|mpmvc( Ke|lew bi| leh|m|pchpj} vmcwc` Satimhc i| ihmk~etpihp ~itp eo mp| mhpcgtipmeh ~tefclp|( Ts||mi bi| hep wihpc` peillc~p Satimhc| mh`c~ch`chlc ih` ysc|pmehc` bct |evctcmgh

|pipcbee`(

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

97

Motm

gjedij clehekml ltm|m|* `mvctpmhg pbcmt ippchpmeh otek dmjipctij tcjipmeh|(Ketcevct* Satimhc ih` Ts||mi bi` |mghc` i hcw gi| lehptilp pbipwi| |s~~e|c` pe kiac Ts||mih gi| ketc cr~ch|mvc ih` Satimhcjc|| `c~ch`chp eh mp mh pbc kc`msk pctk(

Bewcvct* ]ihsaev}lb| cjclpmeh mh 4>9> dtesgbp dilaTs||mi| be~c| oet mhpcgtipmeh* i| Ke|lew |iw i ~epchpmij ijj} mh~ewct mh A}mv( Pbc hcw ~tc|m`chp| omt|p ocw kehpb| sh`ct~mhhc`Ts||mih cr~clpipmeh|* wmpb Satimhc crpch`mhg pbc igtcckchp ijjewmhgpbc di|mhg eo Ts||mi| Djila \ci Ojccp mh Ltmkci oet i ostpbct43 }cit| mh crlbihgc oet lbci~ct gi|( Bewcvct* pbc behc}keeh `m`hep ji|p jehg( Eoomlmijj} A}mv mh|m|pc` eh pbc omhijmipmeh eo @LOPIhcgepmipmeh| wmpb pbc CS wbmjc tc|m|pmhg Ke|lew| mhvmpipmeh pe femh pbcLs|pek| Shmeh(

Ijpbesgb hep |cch i| i pbtcip mhmpmijj}* pbc @LOPI dclikc eo|ctmes| lehlcth pe Ts||mi i| hcgepmipmeh| ~telcc`c` pewit`| i

lje|c( Evct pbc ~i|p kehpb|* pbctc bi| dcch i |ctmc| eo hcgipmvc|pipckchp| ih` cvch pbtcip| otek depb ~tc|m`chp Kc`vc`cv ih`~tckmct ^spmh imkc` ip |pe~~mhg pbc omhijmipmeh eo @LOPI pija|(09Kckdct|bm~ mh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh bi| dcch mh|m|pchpj} eooctc` i| ihijpcthipmvc pbip wesj` dtmhg mkkc`mipc dchcomp| pe Satimhc*|mghmomlihpj} espwcmgbmhg pbc CS eooct(

Ts||mi m| hep lehvmhlc` idesp pbc Satimhmih cjmpc| wmjjmhghc||pe chgigc mh i `cij wmpb pbc CS pbip wesj` tc|sjp mh ketcptih|~itchl} ih` pbctcoetc tc`slc pbc e~~etpshmpmc| oet tchp+|ccamhg(Ts||mih| i~~cit pe dcjmcvc pbip mo Satimhc m| eo octc` i dcppct `cij*|bc ki} mh pbc ch` femh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh( I| i tc|sjp* ~tekm|c| eolbci~ct gi| ~tmlc|Ts||mi| ptsk~ lit`les~jc` wmpb pbtcip| ih`|kijj pti`c wit|* itc s|c` pe ~sjj Satimhc iwi} otek bct Cste~cihlbemlc( Pbm|* bewcvct* bi| hep }cp dethc otsmp1 ~tc|m`chp ]ihsaev}lbbi| ki`c i leshpct+eooct eo i

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

92

Motm

li~mpij ih` ~ct|eh|( Mp m| chvm|mehc` pbip mk~etp `spmc| tclcmvc` sh`ctmp wmjj dc leh|ejm`ipc` mhpe ehc illeshp* wmpb Ts||mi tclcmvmhg27(=7# eo pbc ~telcc`|* wbmjc Aiiab|pih ih` Dcjits| wesj` tclcmvc7(9> ~tc|m`chpmij cjclpmeh|( Pbc Dcjits|mih clehek} m| bmgbj}`c~ch`chp eh Ts||mih jeih| i| hcmpbct pbc MKO het pbc CS m| wmjjmhgpe chgigc wmpb pbc lsttchp tcgmkc( Oet Aiiab|pih* pbc mhvmpipmeh bi`i |}kdejml kcihmhg eo gee` tcjipmeh| wmpb mp| hcmgbdet( Mh clehekmlih` pti`c pctk|* pbc leshpt} m| CS+etmchpc` ih` `m` hep bivc kslbmhlchpmvc pe femh(

Mp m| pee citj} pe kiac lehljs|meh| idesp pbc le|p| ih`dchcomp| eo pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh oet Ts||mi* Dcjits| ih` Aiiab|pih*i| wcjj i| oet pbcmt hcmgbdet|( Bewcvct* kih} |lbejit| ijtci`}ysc|pmeh pbc `stidmjmp} eo pbc ~tefclp gmvch ~tcvmes| cr~ctmchlc| eomhpcgtipmeh mh pbc ~e|p+\evmcp |~ilc "c(g( i LM\+wm`c OPI |mghc` mh9==0 ih` hcvct mk~jckchpc` et pbc Csti|mih Clehekml Lekkshmp}QCstI|CL[-( Pbctc itc i jmkmpc` hskdct eo gchctij |ps`mc| eh pbcdchcomp| ih` le|p| eo Satimhc| ~e||mdjc kckdct|bm~ mh pbc Ls|pek|Shmeh* i| wcjj i| i ocw |ps`mc| eh pbc tipbct hcgipmvc mk~ilp eo pbcLs|pek| Shmeh kckdct|bm~ oet Dcjits| ih` Aiiab|pih(0?

04MCT%Gctkih I`vm|et} Gtes~* Pti`c ~ejml} mh Satimhc6 \ptipcgml I|~clp| ih` Hcrp

\pc~| pe dc Piach* A}mv%Dctjmh* I~tmj 4>9>* :www(dctipctgts~~c+

satimhc(`c%`ewhjei`%Dctipct~i~mctc%4>9>%^^U>4U4>9>UhcwUOetkipUchg(~`o5^B^\C\\M@;=?i>7ll9l4i`l7oc=390499*:bpp~6%%lithcgmcch`ewkchp(etg%omjc|%satimhcUts||miU4(~`o8(00

@( Ptchmh* ^e|p Mk~ctmsk* Ke|lew* Lithcgmc Ch`ewkchp oet Mhpcthipmehij ^cilc*4>99(03

Eroet` Ihij}pmli* Ls|pek| Shmeh Eooct| Kitgmhij Dchcomp| pe Lchptij I|mi*42 Fsj} 4>99(0?

^ Aijti ih` \( _iti`biaev* Pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh dcpwcch Ts||mi* Aiiab|pihih` Dcjits| Omt|p \pc~| pewit`| pbc Tcvmvij eo pbc \mja Tei`* :bpp~6%%likdtm`gc+lchptiji|mi(ili`ckmi(c`s%^tifiapmAijti%^i~ct|%074>29%PbcULs|pek|UShmehUdcpwcchUTs||miUAiiab|pihUih`UDcjits|UOmt|pU\pc~|Upewit`|UpbcUTcvmvijUeoUpbcU\mja

http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/Beraterpapiere/2010/PP_02_2010_new_Format_eng.pdf?PHPSESSID=3096a07cc1c2adc7fe951423032e6841http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/Beraterpapiere/2010/PP_02_2010_new_Format_eng.pdf?PHPSESSID=3096a07cc1c2adc7fe951423032e6841http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/Beraterpapiere/2010/PP_02_2010_new_Format_eng.pdf?PHPSESSID=3096a07cc1c2adc7fe951423032e6841http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/Beraterpapiere/2010/PP_02_2010_new_Format_eng.pdf?PHPSESSID=3096a07cc1c2adc7fe951423032e6841http://carnegieendowment.org/files/ukraine_russia_2.pdfhttp://carnegieendowment.org/files/ukraine_russia_2.pdfhttp://cambridge-centralasia.academia.edu/PrajaktiKalra/Papers/472081/The_Customs_Union_between_Russia_Kazakhstan_and_Belarus_First_Steps_towards_the_Revival_of_the_Silk_Roadhttp://cambridge-centralasia.academia.edu/PrajaktiKalra/Papers/472081/The_Customs_Union_between_Russia_Kazakhstan_and_Belarus_First_Steps_towards_the_Revival_of_the_Silk_Roadhttp://cambridge-centralasia.academia.edu/PrajaktiKalra/Papers/472081/The_Customs_Union_between_Russia_Kazakhstan_and_Belarus_First_Steps_towards_the_Revival_of_the_Silk_Roadhttp://cambridge-centralasia.academia.edu/PrajaktiKalra/Papers/472081/The_Customs_Union_between_Russia_Kazakhstan_and_Belarus_First_Steps_towards_the_Revival_of_the_Silk_Roadhttp://cambridge-centralasia.academia.edu/PrajaktiKalra/Papers/472081/The_Customs_Union_between_Russia_Kazakhstan_and_Belarus_First_Steps_towards_the_Revival_of_the_Silk_Roadhttp://cambridge-centralasia.academia.edu/PrajaktiKalra/Papers/472081/The_Customs_Union_between_Russia_Kazakhstan_and_Belarus_First_Steps_towards_the_Revival_of_the_Silk_Roadhttp://cambridge-centralasia.academia.edu/PrajaktiKalra/Papers/472081/The_Customs_Union_between_Russia_Kazakhstan_and_Belarus_First_Steps_towards_the_Revival_of_the_Silk_Roadhttp://carnegieendowment.org/files/ukraine_russia_2.pdfhttp://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/Beraterpapiere/2010/PP_02_2010_new_Format_eng.pdf?PHPSESSID=3096a07cc1c2adc7fe951423032e6841http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/Beraterpapiere/2010/PP_02_2010_new_Format_eng.pdf?PHPSESSID=3096a07cc1c2adc7fe951423032e6841http://www.beratergruppe-ukraine.de/download/Beraterpapiere/2010/PP_02_2010_new_Format_eng.pdf?PHPSESSID=3096a07cc1c2adc7fe951423032e6841

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

9=

Motm

Ketcevct* |ekc cr~ctp| dcjmcvc pbctc m| jmppjc ~epchpmij oet tcijclehekml mhpcgtipmeh dcpwcch Ts||mi ih` epbct LM\ leshptmc|* i|pbc} jila pbc ~tctcysm|mpc| oet mp* |slb i| i bmgb jcvcj eokihsoilpstmhg ih` lehlekmpihp `mvct|momlipmeh eo cr~etp ih` mk~etpe~ctipmeh|(07

Pbc evctijj ipke|~bctc wmpbmh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh tcojclp| pbcjcvcj| eo pts|p ih` jila eo i |~mtmp eo ~itphct|bm~( Pch|meh| dcpwcchKe|lew ih` Kmh|a evct emj cr~etp `spmc| ip pbc dcgmhhmhg eo 4>99wctc ehc eo pbc omt|p |mghij| eo Ts||mi| shwmjjmhghc|| pe dc ojcrmdjcwmpb mp| ~itphct|(02 Eh pbc ehc bih`* Dcjits| ih` Aiiab|pih occj~tc||stc` pe e~ch s~ pe Ts||mih |ltspmh} "c(g( pbcmt ls|pek||ctvmlc|-( Eh pbc epbct* pbc} bivc ijtci`} |pitpc` lek~jimhmhg idespshoimt ptcipkchp eo pbcmt gee`| d} Ts||mih ls|pek| ispbetmpmc|(0=

\mhlc pbctc itc he |ejm` ~sdjmlijj} ivimjidjc |ps`mc| eh pbc|sdfclp* mp m| `moomlsjp pe lehljs`c wbcpbct Dcjits| ih` Aiiab|pih|

lehlcth| bivc tcij gtesh`|( Pbc} dcjmcvc pbip Ke|lew wmjj dc pbcehj} wmhhct* gmvch pbip pbc Shmeh wi| dsmjp eh =4# eo Ts||mih ls|pekpitmoo|( Pbc} itc lehlcthc` evct dcmhg s|c` i| i ~ji}gtesh` oet pbc~te`slpmeh eo tiw kipctmij| oet pbc dchcomp eo Ts||mih ds|mhc||( Pbctcm| ih cr~clpipmeh pbip pbc ltcipmeh eo pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh wmjj ipptilpketc O@M( Mo pbm| pe bi~~ch* mhvc|pkchp ojew| itc ketc jmacj} pe lekcpe Ts||mi ih` ~ctbi~| Aiiab|pih( Dcjits| wmjj tckimh i `moomlsjp`c|pmhipmeh* gmvch ~tedjck| wmpb `ckeltil}* iooclpmhg pbc leshpt}|tc~spipmeh(

Kmh|a ih` I|pihi cr~clp je||c| mh ds`gcp tcvchsc|* pbc tm|ceo `ekc|pml ~tmlc|* ih` bmgbct mhojipmeh( Tclchpj}* Dcjits| cr~tc||c`bct lehlcth| wmpb pbc mhltci|c mh pbc vejskc eo |ksggjc` gee`|pbtesgb pbc mhpti+shmeh det`ct|(3> Aiiab ds|mhc||c| ih` jipct ehkckdct| eo ~itjmikchp bivc vemlc` lehlcth| evct pbc ~e||mdjc tm|ceo leh|skct ~tmlc| ih` mhojipmeh* wmpb |ekc jmhamhg pbc tclchp 94#mhojipmeh wmpb pbc kckdct|bm~ mh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh( Pbctc bivc dcch~sdjml ~tepc|p| igimh|p Aiiab|pih| kckdct|bm~ mh pbc Ls|pek|Shmeh wmpb i hskdct eo ~sdjml omgstc| otek `mooctchp gtes~mhg| i|amhgpbc ~tc|m`chp pe |pe~ pbc mhpcgtipmeh ~telc||(39

UTei`81 K( ]mjki ih` A( Kej`i|bcv* Pbc ^e||mdjc Cooclp eo pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh ehDcjits|* Abiiab|pih ih` Ts||mih eh @cvcje~kchp eo Aiiab|pih Clehek}*

:bpp~6%%betmehtc|citlb(a%mh`cr(~b~%ts%ihij}pml|+ts%tcgmehij+mhpcgtipmeh|+ts%73+ls+cooclp|81 M( Pelbmp|ai}i* C(Ia|ch Femhmhg pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh wmpb LM\ Leshptmc|6Pbc Dcjits|mih Li|c*:bpp~6%%cia|ch(hite`(ts%~sdjmlipmeh|%pelb+ia|(~`o8(07

Ptchmh* e~( lmp( Q00[(02

\cc TMI Heve|pm* Satimhc'| Hcw Jci`ct|bm~ C}c| Ls|pek| Shmeh wmpb Ts||mi^i~ct* 97 Ocdtsit} 4>9>* :bpp~6%%ch(tmih(ts%cr|evmcp%4>9>>497%937=999*:bpp~6%%d`g(d}%hcw|%~ejmpml|%992=9(bpkj8(3>

Mdm`(39

@csp|lbc Wcjjc* ^tepc|pm ~tepmv Pikebchhege |e}si v Aiiab|pihc6 |jm|baektihe mjm |jm|baek ~e`he5 Q^tepc|p| igimh|p Ls|pek| Shmeh mh Aiiab|pih6 Pee \eehet Pee Jipc5[* 9 I~tmj 4>9>* :bpp~6%%www(`w+wetj`(`c%`w%itpmljc%>**3049?>(bpkj81

http://horizonresearch.kz/index.php/ru/analytics-ru/regional-integrations-ru/75-cu-effectshttp://horizonresearch.kz/index.php/ru/analytics-ru/regional-integrations-ru/75-cu-effectshttp://horizonresearch.kz/index.php/ru/analytics-ru/regional-integrations-ru/75-cu-effectshttp://horizonresearch.kz/index.php/ru/analytics-ru/regional-integrations-ru/75-cu-effectshttp://eaksen.narod.ru/publications/toch-aks.pdfhttp://eaksen.narod.ru/publications/toch-aks.pdfhttp://eaksen.narod.ru/publications/toch-aks.pdfhttp://en.rian.ru/exsoviet/20100217/157913841.htmlhttp://en.rian.ru/exsoviet/20100217/157913841.htmlhttp://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5421638,00.htmlhttp://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5421638,00.htmlhttp://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5421638,00.htmlhttp://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5421638,00.htmlhttp://en.rian.ru/exsoviet/20100217/157913841.htmlhttp://eaksen.narod.ru/publications/toch-aks.pdfhttp://horizonresearch.kz/index.php/ru/analytics-ru/regional-integrations-ru/75-cu-effectshttp://horizonresearch.kz/index.php/ru/analytics-ru/regional-integrations-ru/75-cu-effects

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

4>

Motm

]cp* pbc pbtcc ~itphct leshptmc| bivc ijtci`} mhvmpc`A}tg}|pih* Pifmam|pih* Sdcam|pih ih` Satimhc pe femh pbc Ls|pek|Shmeh( Ij|e* Ts||mih ^tmkc Kmhm|pct _ji`mkmt ^spmh ihheshlc` pbcltcipmeh eo i Csti|mih Clehekml Shmeh oejjewc` d} i Csti|mih Shmehpe levct lee~ctipmeh oit dc}eh` pti`c pewit`| pbc oest otcc`ek|"kevckchp eo gee`|* |ctvmlc|* li~mpij ih` ~ce~jc- ih` i ~ejmpmlijshmeh wmpbmh pbc hcrp ocw }cit|(34

WPE kckdct|bm~ ki} dc i oilpet mhojschlmhg `cvcje~kchp|wmpbmh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh( Mo A}tg}|pih* i lsttchp kckdct eo pbcWPE* `clm`c| pe femh pbc ~tefclp* |bc wmjj |cp i ~tclc`chp ih` gmvcTs||mi i``mpmehij itgskchp| oet ~tc||stc eh epbct mhvmpcc|* |slb i|Satimhc( Ts||mi| tclchpj}+i~~tevc` kckdct|bm~ mh pbc WPE wmjjjci` pe pbc tcvm|meh eo ls|pek| `spmc| wmpbmh pbc Shmeh( Pbm| ki}ltcipc i``mpmehij ~tedjck| oet mp| kckdct| i| WPE illc||meh pija|d} Ke|lew ih` I|pihi wctc hep |}hlbtehmc`* ih` Kmh|a lihhep~telcc` wmpb mp| ewh( Bewcvct* mp m| pee citj} pe kiac `comhmpc

lehljs|meh| idesp pbc mk~ilp eo Ts||mi| WPE kckdct|bm~(

Ls|pek| Shmeh ih` Satimhc6 wbip| eh eooct5

Mp bi| jehg dcch |sggc|pc` pbip oet depb clehekml ih` ~ejmpmlijtci|eh|* ih} Ts||mih ~tefclp wmjj hep |sllcc` wmpbesp A}mv( Otek pbcclehekml |m`c* Satimhc m| i vijsidjc i||cp wmpb bct 0? kmjjmehleh|skct|* mh`s|ptmc|* ih` igtmlsjpstc i| wcjj i| chctg} ptih|mpli~ilmpmc|( Satimhc m| ij|e Ts||mi| pbmt` jitgc|p pti`mhg ~itphct* iopctGctkih} ih` Lbmhi( Otek pbc ~ejmpmlij "ih` eopch ckepmehij- ~emhp eo

vmcw* Ts||mi dcjmcvc| pbip mo Satimhc* pbc jitgc|p leshpt} wmpbmh pbcCS| Ci|pcth ^itphct|bm~ mhmpmipmvc* `clm`c| pe |bmop |m`c| ih` femh pbcLs|pek| Shmeh* pbm| ki} ~s|b epbct Ci^ leshptmc| pe tc+leh|m`ctpbcmt mtclpmeh(

]cp* pbc Satimhmih jci`ct|bm~ bi| tckimhc` omtk eh mp| ~e|mpmehtcgit`mhg pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh( ]ihsaev}lb bi| `cljmhc` ijj mhvmpipmeh|d} pbc Ts||mih jci`ct|bm~ ih` bi| mh|pci` mh|m|pc` eh pbc

Otek i pclbhmlij ih` clehekml ~emhp eo vmcw* pbc kimhdittmct| pe Satimhc| kckdct|bm~ mh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh itc pbcleshpt}| WPE kckdct|bm~ ih` i ljis|c mh pbc Leh|pmpspmeh pbip~tebmdmp| pbc leshpt} otek |sttch`ctmhg `clm|meh+kiamhg ~ewct| pe

@csp|lbc Wcjjc* Pikebchhmm |e}s idc|~eaemj pc~ct m ~ejmpmaev v Aiiab|pihcQLs|pek| Shmeh hew i Wett} oet ^ejmpmlmih| mh Aiiab|pih[* < Kitlb 4>9>*:www(`w+wetj`(`c%`w%itpmljc%>**3*>>(bpkj8(34

_( ^spmh itpmljc mh Mvc|pmieh 0 Elpedct 4>99*:bpp~6%%~tckmct(gev(ts%chg%cvchp|%hcw|%9??44%8(

http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5315170,00.htmlhttp://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5315170,00.htmlhttp://premier.gov.ru/eng/events/news/16622/http://premier.gov.ru/eng/events/news/16622/http://premier.gov.ru/eng/events/news/16622/http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5315170,00.html

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

49

Motm

ih} |s~ti+hipmehij ispbetmp}( Mo Satimhc wm|bc` pe femh pbc Ls|pek|Shmeh* ikch`mhg pbc Leh|pmpspmeh lesj` ~tevc ci|}( Illet`mhg petclchp ~tilpmlc* pbc Leh|pmpspmeh ki} dc |mk~j} ikch`c`* et ip jci|ptcmhpct~tcpc`* d} pbc Leh|pmpspmehij Lestp ih` hep hclc||itmj} pbtesgbpbc ~itjmikchp et i ~sdjml tcoctch`sk(3< Bewcvct* WPE kckdct|bm~ih` pbc mk~jmlipmeh| otek pbc dtcilb eo lekkmpkchp| d} Satimhc itctipbct shdcipidjc mk~c`mkchp| pe Ls|pek| Shmeh kckdct|bm~ ip pbckekchp(30

Ts||mi bi| ih ckepmehij ocit eo je|mhg Satimhc* ih` m| ~s|bc`pe s|c vitmes| |pmla| ih` littep| pe ~tc||stc A}mv( Illet`mhg pec|pmkipc| ~sp oetwit` d} Ke|lew* `mtclp ~ct ihhsk gimh| oet Satimhcotek pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh wesj` lekc pe ?(3+= dmjjmeh S\ `ejjit|(

Ts||mi m| tci`} pe ~tevm`c lbci~ct gi| pe Satimhc ih` pe lek~ch|ipc~e||mdjc je||c| mh li|c eo WPE kckdct| ljimk|(33 Pbc mkkc`mipcdchcomp| espjmhc` d} ^spmh wesj` lekc otek pbc cjmkmhipmeh eo cr~etp`spmc| eh emj "S\$ < dh( ~ct ihhsk- ih` eh emj ~te`slp| "S\$ 0(? dh(

~ct ihhsk-* jewctmhg eo gi| ~tmlc| pe pbc jcvcj eo Ts||mih `ekc|pml~tmlc|* pbc cjmkmhipmeh eo |iocgsit` kci|stc| crm|pmhg mh dmjipctijpti`c* jci`mhg pe pbc mhltci|c eo Satimhmih cr~etp| pe Ts||mi "s~ peS\$ ?7> k( ~ct ihhsk-(

Ls|pek| Shmeh kckdct|bm~ wmpb Ts||mih c|pmkipc` dchcomp|oet Satimhc eo ijke|p = dmjjmeh S\ `ejjit| ihhsijj} m| ij|e lehpti|pc`wmpb pbc MKO \pih`+d} Ittihgckchp* pbtesgb wbmlb Satimhc wmjjdettew i~~termkipcj} 9> dmjjmeh S\@ evct 93 }cit|(3? Pbc Ls|pek|Shmeh |besj` ij|e bcj~ Satimhc dclekc pbc dtci`di|acp eo pbctcgmeh* ih` jipct eh eo pbc Cste~cih Shmeh ih` pbc tc|p eo pbc wetj`(Pbc leshpt}| ivmipmeh |clpet* shjc|| mhljs`c` mh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh*

wmjj bivc pe `m|i~~cit `sc pe |mghmomlihp ~tc||stc otek CS+di|c`lek~cpmpet|(37

Ikehg pbc kmj`c|p itgskchp| lekmhg otek Ke|lew m| iTs||mih lehvmlpmeh pbip pbc `eet pe CS kckdct|bm~ m| lje|c` oet

39>* pbc Satimhmih leh|pmpspmehij lestp evctpsthc` pbc 4>>0

Leh|pmpspmeh* dtmhgmhg dila pbc 9==? Leh|pmpspmeh wmpb |sd|pihpmij ~ewct| eo pbc~tc|m`chp(30

Ispbet| mhpctvmcw| wmpb mh`c~ch`chp Satimhmih cr~ctp| tcvcijc` pbip wbmjc pbctcitc he ljcit c|pmkipc| otek ~e||mdjc tcvm|meh eo pbc leshpt}| WPE lekkmpkchp|* mp m|

~e||mdjc pbip kih} WPE kckdct|* c|~clmijj} pbe|c wbe wctc kckdct| eo pbcwetamhg gtes~ eh Satimhc| illc||meh* wesj` ljimk lek~ch|ipmeh(33

^tmkc kmhm|pct ^spmh| |sggc|pmeh ysepc` d} Mhpctoir* 94 I~tmj 4>9>*:bpp~6%%www(mhpctoir(ts%ds|mhc||%hcw|(i|~5m`;92399*:bpp~6%%oels|(si%~ejmpml|%4>47?7%8(37

^te`sapm m Satimhm hi cvte~cm|amm tmhea hc ~s|p}ip* ivmip|m}i sktcp^spmhQSatimhmih ^te`slp| wmjj hep Chpct pbc Cste~cih Kitacp* Ivmipmeh wmjj @mc^spmh[*Caehekmlbc|amc mvc|pm}i* ? Elpedct 4>99*:bpp~6%%hcw|(cmvc|pmi(lek%hcw|U~ejmpml|%osjj%~te`sap}+m+satimh}+hi+cvte~cf|amf+t}hea+hc+~s|p}ip+ivmilm}i+sktcp+#C4#2>#=

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

44

Motm

Satimhc( Oet mh|pihlc* mh bm| |pipckchp ip pbc 4>99 \elbm mhvc|pkchpoetsk* ^spmh |im` pbip bc lesj` bit`j} mkigmhc Satimhc|i~~termkipmeh wmpb pbc CS(32 Mh `m|ls||meh| wmpb A}mv* Ke|lew `ec|hep |cck pe tsjc esp clehekml mhpcgtipmeh dcpwcch pbc CS ih` pbcLs|pek| Shmeh ip i jipct |pigc( Pbc Ts||mih jci`ct|bm~ ljimk| mh pbm|lehpcrp pbip Satimhc| ditgimhmhg ~ewct wesj` dc bmgbct mo lbihhcjc`pbtesgb Ke|lew(3=

Ts||mi| kimh itgskchp| itc pbip Satimhc| Cste~cih lbemlcm| ~ejmpmlij ih` ckepmehij* wbmjc femhmhg pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh wesj` dc i~tigkipml lbemlc( Ip pbc |ikc pmkc* Ke|lew bi| tim|c` i hskdct eolehlcth|* mhljs`mhg pbip pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh leshptmc| wmjj dc ojee`c`wmpb lbci~ cr~etp| otek pbc CS ehlc Satimhc oetk| i otcc pti`c itciwmpb pbc CS(?> Mp m| itgsc` pbip ^ejih`* Tekihmi ih` pbc Dijpml |pipc|wesj` pt} pe lbihhcj pbcmt ~te`slp| pbtesgb Satimhmih pcttmpet}* i|Satimhmih pitmoo| itc kslb jewct pbih pbe|c eo pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh(

@c|~mpc pbc oilp pbip pbm| `ihgct lesj` dc cjmkmhipc` pbtesgbtsjc| eo etmgmh tcgsjipmeh|* Ke|lew bi| pbtcipchc` pe mk~e|c |ptmlpctlehptej eh pbc Ls|pek Shmeh| det`ct ih` |ctmes| tc|ptmlpmvckci|stc| i~~jmc` pe cr~etp| otek Satimhc( Mh pbc \skkct eo 4>99kckdct| eo pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh tim|c` ls|pek| `spmc| oet Satimhmihlitikcj* |sgit* ~epipec| ih` liddigc|* ih` mhpte`slc` ihpm`sk~mhgkci|stc| igimh|p |cvctij Satimhmih |pccj ~m~c kihsoilpstct|* |ekc~itp| eo pbc mh`s|pt} ~te`slmhg cysm~kchp oet bciv} kilbmhct}* ih`mh`s|ptmij h}jeh }ith( Ijdcmp hcw pe Satimhc* pbc|c tc|ptmlpmeh| bivciooclpc` i hskdct eo ac} Satimhmih clehekml ilpet| "m(c(T( Iabkcpev* _( ^mhlbsa* M( Aejekem|a} ih` E( ]ite|jiv|a}-(?9Cr~ctp| ij|e |sggc|p pbip Ts||mi bi| kihigc` pe djela pbc |mghmhg eo

i hcw LM\ otcc pti`c igtcckchp pbtesgb pbc Sdca gevcthkchp( Pbm|OPI m| eo ~itpmlsjit mhpctc|p oet Satimhmih ds|mhc||c| ih` pbc |pipc(Pbc igtcckchp eh OPI wmpbmh LM\ wi| |cijc` ip pbc 4>99 \imhp+^cpct|dstg |skkmp eo pbc bci`| eo LM\ kckdct|* dsp pbc `elskchpbi| }cp pe chpct mhpe oetlc(

Mh tcijmp}* Ts||mi| ~tekm|c| ih` pbtcip| `e hep hclc||itmj}

32^spmh |lbmpicp hctcijhmk v|ps~jchmc Satimhm v \ Q^spmh Leh|m`ct| Satimhc Femhmhg

CS pe dc Shtcijm|pml[* 9? \c~pckdct 4>99*:bpp~6%%clehekml|(jd(si%|pipc%4>99%>=%9?%993932U~spmhU|lbmpicpUhctcijhmkU~tm|ec`(

bpkj8(3=_c|pm* ^spmh6 epai Satimhm vlps~mp v Pikebchhm} |e}s he|mp ~ejmpmle+ckep|mehijhm} abitiapct Q^spmh6 Satimhc| Tcos|ij pe Femh pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh m|Ckepmehij ih` ^ejmpmlij[*9? \c~pckdct 4>99* :www(vc|pm(ts%`el(bpkj5m`;374

Iapsijhmc Aekkchpitmm*^spmhSatimhi vmgticp ep v|ps~jchm}i v Pikebchhm}|e}s Q^spmh6 Satimhc Wmjj Dchcomp otek Femhmhg pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh[*94 I~tmj 4>99*:bpp~6%%ilpsijlekkchp(ts%hcw|%44=70%8(?9

Tmhip Iabkcpev* Satimhc| tmlbc|p kih wmpb |sd|pihpmij mhpctc|p| mh pbc kcpijjstg}|clpet1 _mapet ^mhlbsa* pbc |eh+mh+jiw eo oetkct ~tc|m`chp Jcehm` Aslbki wmpbmhpctc|p| mh pbc |pccj mh`s|pt} ih` pbc kc`mi1 Mget Aejekem|a}* i kc`mi* dihamhg ih`emj p}leeh1 Ejca|ih`t ]ite|jiv|a}* i oetkct dihamhg p}leeh* hew wmpb mhpctc|p| mh pbctcij c|pipc ih` lbckmlij| |clpet|(

http://economics.lb.ua/state/2011/09/16/115158_putin_schitaet_nerealnim_prisoed.htmlhttp://economics.lb.ua/state/2011/09/16/115158_putin_schitaet_nerealnim_prisoed.htmlhttp://economics.lb.ua/state/2011/09/16/115158_putin_schitaet_nerealnim_prisoed.htmlhttp://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=572358http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=572358http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=572358http://actualcomment.ru/news/22974/http://actualcomment.ru/news/22974/http://actualcomment.ru/news/22974/http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=572358http://economics.lb.ua/state/2011/09/16/115158_putin_schitaet_nerealnim_prisoed.htmlhttp://economics.lb.ua/state/2011/09/16/115158_putin_schitaet_nerealnim_prisoed.html

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

494(

Mp m| bmgbj} shjmacj} pbip pbc Atckjmh wmjj dc idjc pe cr~jimh peTs||mih leh|skct| ih` ds|mhc||c| pbc hcc` pe acc~ pbc ~tmlc oetSatimhc dcjew Ts||mi| ewh `ekc|pml ~tmlc|( Satimhc| li|c |besj`hep dc lek~itc` pe pbip eo Dcjits| pbip tclchpj} gep gi| `m|leshp oetgmvmhg iwi} pbc tckimhmhg 3># eo mp| gi| ptih|mp |}|pck pe Gi~tekih` oet igtccmhg pe ostpbct mhpcgtipmeh |pc~|( Mh |mk~jc pctk|* ehclihhep lek~itc pbc kitacp| mh pbc pwe leshptmc| wmpbDcjits|| =(3 kmjjmeh ih` Satimhc| 0? kmjjmeh mhbidmpihp|( Ts||mi|

je||c| wesj` dc bmgbct pbih mp lih iooet`(

@m|ls||meh| ikehg Ts||mih ds|mhc|| "crlc~p Gi~tek-tcvcij pbc jila eo |s~~etp pe pbc dmjjmeh| eo S\ `ejjit| ~tekm|c` peA}mv d} ^spmh(?4 Ts||mih ds|mhc|| ki} dc mhpctc|pc` mh gcppmhg dcppctillc|| pe Satimhc| tipbct ~tepclpc` kitacp( Bewcvct* mp cr~clp| pbcAtckjmh pe ~st|sc ih illc|| |ptipcg} ip pbc jewc|p ~e||mdjc le|p6 pbccrik~jc eo Dcjits| m| mhoetkipmvc mh pbm| li|c( Wbmjc mp m| pclbhmlijj}~e||mdjc pe tcvm|c pbc leshpt}| lekkmpkchp| wmpb ijj mhpctc|pc`~itpmc| wmpbmh pbc WPE* Satimhc ki} gcp mhpe |ctmes| ptesdjc( Omt|pj}*pbc tcvm|meh ki} |ch` i hcgipmvc |mghij pe oetcmgh mhvc|pet| wbeijtci`} ysc|pmeh Satimhc| idmjmp} pe mk~jckchp mp| lekkmpkchp|( Ij|e*

pbc omhij dmjj pe ijj mhpctc|pc` WPE kckdct| ki} |st~i|| pbc9(= dmjjmeh S\ `ejjit| pbip Ts||mi bi| ~jc`gc` i| lek~ch|ipmeh peA}mv oet femhmhg pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh( Ji|pj}* |ekc Satimhmihds|mhc||c| wmjj bivc pe i`fs|p pe hcw cr~etp ih` mk~etp pitmoo|* piamhgpmkc ih` dtmhgmhg i``mpmehij le|p|(

Pbc ~sdjml `cdipc ih` pbc mhpctc|p| eoSatimhc| cjmpc|

Pbctc m| jmppjc ~sdjml `cdipc idesp pbc ~e||mdmjmp} eo Satimhc femhmhg pbcLs|pek| Shmeh( Wbch mp `ec| piac ~jilc* mp m| s|sijj} jmhac` pe ih`lehpti|pc` wmpb pbc ~te|~clp eo pbc @LOPI( Pbctc m| gchctijleh|ch|s| ikehg jelij cjmpc| pbip mhpcgtipmeh wmpb pbc CS m| ilmvmjmipmehij lbemlc* wbmjc kimhpimhmhg gee` pti`c tcjipmeh| wmpbKe|lew* Kmh|a ih` I|pihi m| clehekmlijj} mk~etpihp oet A}mv( Pbm|wi| lehomtkc` ip i hskdct eo tclchp tesh`pidjc| etgihmc` d} pbc

?4Mhpctvmcw| wmpb Ts||mih ds|mhc|| tc~tc|chpipmvc|* I~tmj+Ki} 4>99(

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

40

Motm

Get|bchmh Mh|pmpspc* i jci`mhg A}mv+di|c` pbmha+piha* wmpb pbc~itpmlm~ipmeh eo tc~tc|chpipmvc| eo pbc ~itjmikchpit} kifetmp}*gevcthkchp* ds|mhc||c| ih` mh`c~ch`chp cr~ctp|(?>= gi| igtcckchp wmpb Ke|lew( Bewcvct* mp m| ljcitpbip lbci~ct gi| otek Ts||mi ki} ehj} kipctmijmc mo Satimhc femh|pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh ih` gmvc| iwi} mp| gi| ptih|mp |}|pck( Bewcvct*cr~ctp| lje|c pe pbc ~tc|m`chpmij i`kmhm|ptipmeh mh A}mv i||stc pbippti`mhg pbc leshpt}| mh`c~ch`chlc mh pti`c ~ejml} mh pbc |betp tsh ih`~e||mdj} clehekml mh`c~ch`chlc mh pbc jehg tsh m| hep eh pbcigch`i( \e oit Satimhc bi| e~pc` pe djilakimj Ke|lew ih` pbtcipchpe piac Gi~tek pe pbc \pelabejk Lestp eo Itdmptipmeh( Mp ij|e `m` heppiac ijj lehptilpc` gi|mh Fihsit} 4>94* Kmhm|pct oet oscj ih`chctg}* ]stm De}ae ihheshlc` pbip pbc leshpt} wesj` piac `cjmvct} eoehj} 47 dlk eo i lehptilpc` 34 dlk oet pbc }cit(?0

?991 Tesh`pidjc Satimhc +Ts||miTcjipmeh| iopct pbc Lek~jcpmeh eo @LOPI Pija| wmpb pbc CS Fshc 4>99(?0

A}mv ^e|p* Demae6 Satimhc pe bijvc gi| ~stlbi|c| otek Ts||mi* 99 Fihsit} 4>94*:www(a}mv~e|p(lek%hcw|%ds|mhc||%ds|Ugchctij%`cpimj%94>4=

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E( \bsk}je+Pi~meji % Satimhc6 @LOPI / Ls|pek| Shmeh

Lehljs|meh|

Wbmjc pbc le|p| ih` dchcomp| eo pbc CS+Satimhc @LOPI bivc dcchlijlsjipc` ih` itc ~sdjmlj} `m|ls||c`* |mkmjit c|pmkipc| itc jilamhglehlcthmhg pbc Ls|pek| Shmeh( @cc~ct mhpcgtipmeh wmpb pbc CS wmjjle|p Satimhcdepb pbc |pipc ih` ds|mhc||c|mh pbc |betp tsh(Bewcvct* mp ~tekm|c| pe bivc ljcit wcjoitc dchcomp| mh omvc pe pch}cit|( Mp ki} ij|e |ch` i ~e|mpmvc |mghij pe oetcmgh mhvc|pet| ih`ltcipc hcw ~e||mdmjmpmc| oet Satimhmih gee`| ih` |ctvmlc| eh CS

kitacp| pbtesgb pbc mk~tevckchp eo hetk| ih` |pih`it`|( PbcSatimhmih clehek} m| |s~~e|c` pe dclekc ketc ptih|~itchp ih` pbctsjc| eo pbc gikc oet ds|mhc||c| itc jmacj} pe mk~tevc |mghmomlihpj}(

Pbctc m| jmppjc cvm`chlc pe |sggc|p pbip kckdct|bm~ mh pbcLs|pek| Shmeh wesj` dtmhg |s|pimhidjc dchcomp|( Pbc Ts||mihgevcthkchp bi| ~tc|chpc` |cvctij ~e|mpmvc omgstc|* dsp he |sd|pihpmijcvm`chlc( Pbc cr~ctmchlc eo Dcjits| ih` Aiiab|pih |bew| pbcmtditgimhmhg ~ewct mh tcjipmeh pe Ts||mi pe dc jmkmpc`( Pbc le|p| eo`cvmipmeh otek WPE lekkmpkchp| itc jmacj} pe espwcmgblek~ch|ipmeh ~tekm|c` d} Ts||mi( Ketcevct* pbc Satimhmihjci`ct|bm~ ih` pbc ds|mhc|| mhpctc|p| lehhclpc` pe mp itc hep tci`} pe

bih` `clm|meh+kiamhg ~ewct pe Ke|lew(Ts||mi| eooct m| di|c` eh ~tekm|c|( ]cp pbctc m| jmppjc

cvm`chlc eo ivimjidjc kehc} mh Ke|lew( ^tekm|c| eo lbci~ct gi|itc jmacj} pe tckimh eh ~i~ct( Ketcevct* Satimhc| clehek} ki} dcdcppct eoo wmpbesp lbci~ct gi|( Gcetgmi| cr~ctmchlc |bew| pbip ehlclsp otek pbc Ts||mih chctg} hcc`jc* mp dclekc| ci|mct pe `mvct|mo}chctg} |estlc| ih` mhltci|c chctg} coomlmchl}( Bewcvct* Ts||mihpbtcip| eo hcgipmvc leh|cyschlc| itc tcij ih` Satimhmih ds|mhc||c|itc lehlcthc` idesp pbck(

Pbc leh|ch|s| mh Satimhc| ~sdjml ih` cjmpc `cdipc m| jitgcj}mh oivet eo pbc CS+Satimhc @LOPI wbmjc kckdct|bm~ mh pbc Ls|pek|

Shmeh `ec| hep omh` ~sdjml |s~~etp( Pbs|* mp m| `moomlsjp pe |cc Satimhclbihgmhg lest|c c|~clmijj} gmvch oetpblekmhg ~itjmikchpit} cjclpmeh|mh Elpedct 4>94 ih` ~tc|m`chpmij cjclpmeh| mh 4>93(

A}mv| lbemlc wmjj dc ki`c di|c` eh pbc clehekml "let~etipc-mhpctc|p| eo pbc lsttchp jci`ct|bm~ ih` i |kijj lmtljc eo ds|mhc||c|itesh` mp tipbct pbih eh cr~ctp lijlsjipmeh|( \e oit ihij}|m| |sggc|p|pbip pbc jci`ct|bm~ m| mh oivet eo i Cste~cih `mtclpmeh( Cvch mo`ckeltipml oimjmhg| ~tcvchp Satimhc otek |mghmhg pbc CS+Satimhc@LOPI mh pbc |betp tsh* mp m| bmgbj} shjmacj} pbip A}mv wesj` leh|m`ctLs|pek| Shmeh kckdct|bm~(