COSTS OF THE TRANSITION AND REFERENCE SCENARIOS

WHAT COULD YOU DO NOW?

UKRAINE'S ENERGY SECTOR IN 2050: shisting to renewables

ECONOMIC EFFECTS:

a 42 per cent reduction in energy demand;

up to 75 per cent energy savings in heating due to complete renovation of buildings;

a 30 per cent cost saving due to improved energy efficiency and energy saving;

a threefold reduction in the Ukrainian GDP's energy intensity;

No gas, coal, and nuclear fuel imports will be necessary.

SOCIAL EFFECTS:

new energy infrastructure;

new jobs in the RE and energy efficiency sectors;

new development opportunities at local level: local production of electricity and the use of local resources;

reduction in people employed in the mining sector;

a 90 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 baseline level; and

reduced adverse impacts of the energy sector on public health.

ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES IN EVERYDAY LIFE:

reduce your energy use;

turn off the light and electrical appliances when they are not in use;

replace electric bulbs with LED lights;

install doors and windows that provide a better heat insulation;

choose electric appliances of А++ and А+++ energy efficiency classes;

install devices metering and controlling the use of heat, water, and gas;

initiate heat insulation of your high-rise building in its entirety together with the housing cooperative and/or winterise your single family home;

This publication has been ordered by Centre of Environmental Initiatives "Ecoaction" with a financial contribution by the Heinrich Boell Foundation Regional Office in Ukraine.

USE OF OWN ENERGY RESOURCES:

install solar panels to generate electricity and have them connected to the grid on a 'feed-in' tariff;

purchase a solar collector to heat water or make your own one; and

install a biofuel boiler to produce heat (in your single family home).

Ukraine's energy sector is associated with obsolete, INеfficient technologies, and grid loss. Ukraine has a technically and economically feasible capacity to shist to renewables, to become independent from energy imports, and to mitigate adverse impacts on the Ukrainian environment and public health by 2050.

In 2017, the “Institute for Economics and Forecasting” of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine completed its study into Ukraine's transition to renewable energy by 2050. Takeaway message: yes, this is possible and—what is even more important—makes economic sense!

For more details, please go to energytransition.in.ua

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WHAT WILL BE THE EFFECTS FOR THE COUNTRY?

2020 2035 2050

Subsidies ('feed-in tariff')

Operational costs

Costs of transportations, supplies and bridge technologies

Capital investments

Fuel cost

2020 2035 2050

REFERENCE SCENARIO TRANSITION TO RES

34 882EUR b

85 191EUR b

115 521EUR b

37 265EUR b

81 958EUR b

101 579EUR b

Aster 2030, the transition scenario is likely to offer lower cost compared against the reference scenario thanks to savings on fuel;

AGRICULTURE

ENERGY SECTOR OF THE FUTURE

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?HOUSEHOLDS

MODEL OF CHANGES IN FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN UKRAINE UNDER THE TRANSITION SCENARIO

Appliances of А++ and А+++ energy efficiency classes;40-50% of population use roof-top solar panels;Heat and hot water generated using biofuels, waste, centralised renewable heating and solar collectors.

Thermal improvement of residential buildings;Improvement of housing facilities energy supply system;Automated individual heating units (IHUs);Implementation of cogeneration systems for high-rise buildings;

Final energy consumption, thousand TOE Renewables shareYear

0%

32,2%

91%

2012

2035

2050

Gas: own consumption

Coal: own consumption

Electricity: district electricity supply (RE excluded)

Thermal energy: district heat supply (RE excluded)

Oil: own consumption

Solar energy: own production and use for warming and heating purposes

Biofuels and waste: own use of resources for heating purposes

Thermal energy obtained from RE: the use of RE from the grid

Electricity generated from RE: the use of RE from the grid

Reducing consumption with energy efficiency measures

Final energy consumption, thousand TOE

Set forth below are efforts that should be made in each of the sectors and differences in energy consumption in 2015, 2035 and 2050 in the case of shisting to RE.

Renewables shareTotalYear

66 991

53 019

48 996

2,5%

40,1%

90,6%

2012

2035

2050

TRANSPORT

Biofuel-run air, water, and freight transport.

Cars: Electric cars (90%) and biofuel cars (10%);Electric buses and trains; and

Final energy consumption, thousand TOE Renewables shareYear

0,4%

46,6%

96,5%

2012

2035

2050

INDUSTRY

Replacing energy-intensive equipment with new and energy efficient one; andMore investments in the industry, especially in the power sector.

88% of energy should be obtained from renewable sources and alternate fuels;Industry electrification;

Final energy consumption, thousand TOE Renewables shareYear

1,5%

37,2%

87,7%

2012

2035

2050

Growing energy crops; andNew techniques of using agricultural vehicles and machinery.

Use of RE in electricity and heat generation;Biofuel-run agricultural transport;

Final energy consumption, thousand TOE Renewables shareYear

1,8%

54,4%

96,3%

2012

2035

2050

SERVICE

Heat insulation of premises;Use of highly energy-efficient technical instruments (А++ and А+++ energy efficient classes).

Share of RE: 88%;Energy efficiency and energy-saving efforts;

Final energy consumption, thousand TOE Renewables shareYear

2,9%

46,6%

96,5%

2012

2035

2050

Ukraine is technically and economically capable of shisting to renewable energy (RE). In 2050, 91% of green energy could be generated using already available technologies and due to a 42% reduction in the consumption of energy resources comparedto the baseline scenario.

28%

42%

28%

42%

33%

91%

56%

29%

27%

43%

27%

5%

4%

29%

33%

91%

56%

29%

27%

43%

27%

5%

4%

29%