Ukraine’s Search for a Political Identity _ Business Line

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13/7/2014 Ukraines search for a political identity | Business Line

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Ukraines search for a political identity

VIDYA RAM

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The western region struggles to shake off Russias shadow and lean towards the EU. The south has other ideas

Back in 2011, I spent just over two weeks travelling round Ukraine, the second largest country by area in Europe afterthe Russian Federation, which has grabbed global attention in recent months following a wave of demonstrations inthe capital, Kiev, against the government of President Viktor Yanukovych.

While it was towns and cities popular with tourists that I visited, the deep divisions that existed in society became

quickly evident, particularly attitudes towards the former Soviet Union.The Ukraine has long been valued for its strategic position and enormous natural wealth: it was known as the breadbasket of the Russian empire, more than fifty per cent of its land remains under highly productive agriculture, and itpossesses extremely rich and complementary mineral resources, including iron ore, coal and some of the worldsrichest deposits of manganese-bearing ores.

Not surprisingly, over recent centuries Ukraine has found itself caught up in conflict, often being passed from onepower to power, whether Russia, Romania or Poland. However, its relationship with Russia and the former SovietUnion has proved particularly divisive. Horrors such as the Holodomor, the name for the period in the early 1930swhen millions starved to death in a famine instigated by Josef Stalins collectivisation policies, led to deep-seatedhatred of the Soviet Union in the western part of the country. During the Second World War, as the country becamethe frontline of the battle between the Red Army and the Nazis, and the Germans took over Kyiv, some Ukrainianscollaborated with the Nazis in the hope of achieving independence.

Memories of USSR

That this antipathy to Russia, particularly in Western Ukraine, had lingered into the post-Soviet era became obvious

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to us as we travelled about. In the ancient city of Lviv, near the Polish border, we saw numerous billboards equatingthe hammer and sickle with the swastika. The Nazis gave our children chocolates but the Soviets killed them,declared a young taxi driver, seemingly oblivious to the well-documented war crimes committed by the German armyduring occupation (eight to ten million Ukrainians are estimated to have died during this period).

Others we came across in the city were particularly optimistic about the impact that Euro 2012 footballchampionship could have the following year on relations with Europe, with Lviv, as a host city, set to welcome visitorsfrom across the region.

Things couldnt have been more different further south in the port city of Sevastopol, still home to Russias Black SeaFleet, where that countrys White, Blue and Red flag adorned many buildings and cars, and where people spoke to usof their hope that the city or country would once again be part of Russia and glorious again. If a tourist could gleanthe tensions so easily on a brief trip, they must be particularly deep and persistent.

Gripped by unrest

Ten years on from the Orange Revolution that many had hoped would help the country put its troubled past behind it,

the country is once again in the grip of political unrest. A protest movement triggered by Yanukovychs decision inNovember to back out of an agreement that would have strengthened ties with the EU and (a month later) his $15billion aid deal with Russia, has swiftly gathered pace.

Government buildings in Kiev have been occupied and several protestors have died in clashes with police. Tensionsremain high despite the withdrawal of recently introduced protest laws and the resignation of the entire governmentof Prime Minister Mykola Aazarov. Yanukovychs offer of the posts of Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister tothe opposition has been rejected.

While an optimist could argue that the crisis should provide an opportunity for the country to tackle its deep-rootedproblems, theres reason for caution. For one thing, there is little unity within the opposition, despite public displaysof it, argues Lilit Gevorgyan, an analyst at IHS Global Insight. They have not come up with a way forward, or asolution to the countrys deep-rooted problems.

Among the most urgent of these is tackling the countrys inefficient, highly subsidised economy (Ukrainian consumerspay just a fifth of the cost of natural gas, with the rest borne by the state) and its precarious financial situation.


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Tumbling currency

The countrys foreign currency reserves have been rapidly depleted, and while the first tranche of the Russian aid hasbeen disbursed, the programme was recently suspended until the resolution of the crisis. The currency, which has inthe past been strongly supported by the central bank, has also tumbled in recent days. Corruption is also rife: Ukraineranks 144 out of 175 nations on Transparency Internationals 2013 Corruption Perception Index.

The highly populist nature of politics gives little hope that any of these problems will be addressed by either side,argues Gevorgyan. As in the past, Ukraine seems to have been caught up in a larger conflict. While the EU has beenplaying down Russian accusations of interference in Ukraines affairs, the importance of its role in a country that is amajor gas transit route for Europe is undeniable. Germanys foreign minister has raised the prospect of sanctionsshould the political impasse not be resolved.

EUs involvement

The EU, already a major aid donor to the country, is mulling extending this, potentially in partnership with the US. Asteady stream of European Commission officials have visited the country during the crisis, including its Foreign Policy

chief Catherine Ashton who returned this week.

For the EU, the political crisis has provided an opportunity to flaunt the virtues of a united Europe, even as cynicismbuilds in its own member states.

Those young people in the streets of Ukraineare writing the new narrative of Europe, said President of theEuropean Commission Jose Manuel Barroso back in December. Russia has meanwhile warned Europe to stay out if it,accusing governments of playing a role in the protest movement.

And of course there is Indias burgeoning relationship with the country. Indo-Ukrainian trade, dominated by

pharmaceuticals, iron, steel, and fertilisers, reached a value of $3.1 billion in 2012-2013, boosted by a visit byYanukovych to India two years ago. There are also strong defence links between the two nations: Ukraine is involvedin modernising Indias military transport aircraft and provides engines for naval vessels along with military spares.

Some 5,000 Indians, including students, are estimated to be living in the country. There are clear possibilities for anenhanced Indian profile in Ukraine. But much depends on how the current situation in the country plays out in themonths to come.


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(This article was published on February 6, 2014)

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Ukraine’s Search for a Political Identity _ Business Line