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A systems approach for improving infrastructure resilience Matt Montgomery TM Systems

UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive

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Page 1: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive

A systems approach for improving infrastructure

resilience

Matt Montgomery

TM

Systems

Page 2: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive
Page 3: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive

Complex systems can have many thousands of parts interacting

to produce sometimes abrupt and unpredictable changes;

changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear

dynamics, counter‐intuitive outcomes and unanticipated

consequences.

Page 4: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive
Page 5: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive
Page 6: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive

a best-practice

assessment process

a holistic

framework

Page 7: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive
Page 8: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive

The HalSTAR Systems Process

Page 9: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive

A causal loop diagram showing the potential effect of national standards and regulation on highways construction

Page 10: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive

A causal loop diagram showing the issues affecting flooding and flood defence schemes

Page 11: UKSD event - UK Chapter of the System Dynamics Societysystemdynamics.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/UKSD... · changes driven by feedback loops often resulting in nonlinear dynamics, counter‐intuitive

Key Benefits:

A systems-based methodology, like the HalSTAR Systems approach:

• Can help ensure that the design, construction and maintenance ofinfrastructure systems avoids unintended consequences

• Can identify knock on consequences and cumulative effects

• Can help to drive greater clarity into the planning and understanding of the life‐cycle cost and performance of our infrastructure.

The Model building process and Causal Loop Diagrams help to:

• Illustrate systemic behaviour

• Build consensus amongst stakeholders

• Improve the communication of risks and the sharing of knowledge and;

• Improve the effectiveness of intervention.