UMNO Elections Perceptions Survey - Overall

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    Main FindingsFebruary 2009

    VOTERS' OPINION SURVEYPENINSULAR

    PERCEPTIONS OF UMNOPARTY ELECTIONS 2009

    MEDIA RELEASE

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    MERDEKA CENTER 2

    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

    All rights reserved. This report is published by proprietary subscription. No parts of this publication may be distributed,reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means including photocopying without the permission of thecopyright owner, application for which should be addressed to the same. The distribution, reproduction, copying or

    transmission including the quotation of a part of the whole thereof by a non-customer is strictly prohibited

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Study Method

    Survey based on interviews of 1031 respondents comprising registered voters

    aged 21+ via telephone across Peninsular Malaysia

    Respondents comprised 57% Malays, 31% Chinese and 12% Indians voters

    Respondent selection based on random stratified samplingaccording to state,

    ethnicity and gender

    Poll was carried out between 4 to 16th February 2009

    Margin of errorfor this survey is estimated at 3.10% for the overall sample

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

    Respondent Profile Total [ n = 1031 ]

    Occupation Voting Status

    DependentsLeval of Education

    20%9% 5%

    17%

    2% 2%

    29%

    15%

    0%10%

    20%30%40%50%60%

    Employed

    Private

    Employed

    Govt

    Own business

    operates a

    business that

    hires other

    people

    Self

    employed/small

    business or

    trader

    Unemployed,

    looking for work

    Student Homemaker Retired

    88%

    8%

    4%

    Every election Every other election

    Never voted before

    3%

    23%

    50%

    13% 10%

    0%

    10%

    20%30%

    40%

    50%

    Noformal

    education

    Primaryschool

    Secon

    daryschool

    Diplom

    a/Polytechni

    cs/T

    eachers

    Colleg

    e/Vocational

    In

    stitutes

    Degree

    71%

    29%

    Yes No

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Perceptions on UMNO/BN

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    In the last general election in March 2008, non-Malays voters were more likely tovote for Opposition parties. How should UMNO work with other component partiesin Barisan Nasional?

    28%

    62%

    44%54%

    11%

    81%

    17% 24%

    3%3% 2% 3% 5%

    11%

    37%

    17%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%90%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    No responseDont know

    Strengthen UMNO by giving in / compromise the demands of non-Malay component parties.

    Strengthen BN by featuring non-Malay component parties.

    Perception on UMNO/BN, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    How strongly are you confident or not confident in Barisan Nasional in fulfilling thefollowing aspects :

    35%

    20%32%

    19%

    28%

    29%35%

    28%

    31%

    19%

    30%25% 18% 28% 27%

    8% 18%13%

    9%15% 16%

    9%3% 4%

    12%6% 4%1% 1%

    19%22%

    33%

    1%1% 2%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Taking care of

    Malay rights

    Taking care of

    the interest of

    all races

    Bringing

    economic

    development

    Protecting the

    position of

    Islam

    Ensuring

    political

    stability

    Ensuring racial

    unity

    Very confident Somewhat confident

    Somewhat not confident Not confident at allDont know No response

    Perceptions on BN, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Among the problems mentioned by people about UMNO, please choose TWO thatyou feel are most serious. You may include any other problems .

    4%7%2%No response

    1%1%1%Dont know

    0%0%1%None

    0%0%All

    0%1%Favoritism

    10%14%6%Racist

    11%18%3%Arrogance

    11%16%6%Weak manager of the economy

    12%17%6%Weak leaders

    15%17%13%Out of touch

    35%9%61%Corruption

    AverageSecondProblemFirstProblemWithin UMNO Problem

    Perceptions on UMNO, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Among the following problems faced by UMNO, please choose TWO that you feelare most serious. You may include any other problems

    10%

    0.4%

    0.2%

    0.5%

    1%

    4%

    35%

    15%

    12%

    11%

    11%

    0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

    Corruption

    Out of touch

    Weak leaders

    Weak manager of the economy

    Arrogance

    Racist

    Important oneself / Favouritism

    All

    None

    Dont know

    No response

    Perceptions on UMNO, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

    11

    Now, I am going to read to you two statements. After you hear each one, please tellme which one is closer to your opinion:

    35%

    4% 1%

    59%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    UMNOs internal problemsare jeopardising the future

    of the Malays/ people.

    Although UMNO facesinternal problems, UMNO

    is still able to fight for the

    interest of the

    Malays/people.

    Dont know No response

    Perception on UMNO and the People, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    How strongly do you think that establishing the Malaysian Anti-CorruptionCommission (MACC) is effective or not effective in improving the image of UMNOand BN?

    13%1%

    24%

    31%

    12%

    18%

    34%

    39%

    33%

    27%18%

    40% 34%

    6% 5% 6% 8%1% 1%

    9% 7%

    32%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Very effective Somewhat effectiveSomewhat not effective Not effective at allDont know No response

    Perceptions on Reform Measures, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    How strongly do you think that establishing the Judiciary AppointmentCommission (JAC) is effective or not effective in improving the image of UMNOand BN?

    12%1%

    26%

    33%

    15%

    22%

    29%

    32%

    33%

    22%16%

    32%

    23%

    15% 12%20%

    16%

    1%

    7%8%

    26%

    0%

    10%

    20%30%

    40%

    50%

    60%70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Very effective Somewhat effectiveSomewhat not effective Not effective at allDont know No response

    Perceptions on Reform Measures, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    In your view, how strongly do you think the efforts to curb money politics in UMNOnow is sufficient or insufficient?

    3% 1%

    12% 15%

    4%

    20%28% 44%

    8%

    51% 52%47%

    53%

    5% 6% 4% 6%

    3%13%

    23%

    0%

    10%

    20%30%

    40%

    50%

    60%70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Very sufficient Somewhat sufficientSomewhat insufficient Not sufficient at all

    Dont know

    Perceptions on UMNO, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    As a Malaysian, what is your hope for UMNO?

    Expectations on UMNO, Total [ n = 1031 ]

    12%24%4%11%Hopeless

    1%1%Pull back people confident

    2%1%Unite Malay people

    1%1%1%1%Political stability

    1%2%1%1%Reform UMNO

    2%1%1%Distrust UMNO

    3%2%Reassure UMNO glorious

    3%1%3%2%Develop the country/ establish country

    0%4%2%Perform well and keep the promises

    4%2%Islamic governance

    1%5%3%Fight for Malay rights1%4%4%4%Fight for corruption

    3%7%3%4%Economic raise and stabilization

    3%2%6%4%Concern of country peaceful

    12%6%9%8%Takes care of peoples welfare

    1%5%15%10%Improve administration system to better way

    3%1%19%11%Continue lead the country

    54%31%6%19%Treat all races equally

    IndianChineseMalayTotalHope for UMNO

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    In your view, what are the criteria of an UMNO leader that can fulfill your hope?

    Preferred Leadership Criteria, Total [ n = 1031 ]

    2%1%Dedicated and dexterity1%1%2%1%Able to fulfill promise

    7%1%1%1%Tolerant

    3%1%2%1%Discipline and Unselfish

    3%0%2%2%Smart/ Capable

    5%0%2%Do not place hopes on any UMNO leader

    3%1%2%2%Open minded and look forward

    3%1%2%2%High leadership

    1%3%2%Transparent and sincere

    3%2%2%2%Educated

    6%1%4%3%Kind

    1%0%6%3%Strict

    2%4%6%5%Free from corruption

    2%3%7%5%Responsible

    14%8%Religion knowledge

    2%0%15%9%Honest and trusted

    11%8%13%11%Concerned about the people

    49%36%6%21%Be fair to all

    IndianChineseMalayTotalCriteria

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    How strongly are you confident or not confident that the following UMNO leaderscan fulfill your hopes for UMNO?

    Confidence in UMNO leadership, Total [ n = 1031 ]

    12%6%

    33%

    19%16%

    20%

    24%24%

    13%

    18%31%

    19%

    12%

    5%

    13%13% 10%

    1%1% 1%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Muhyiddin Yassin Mohd. Ali Rustam Muhammad Muhd Taib

    Very confident Somewhat confidentSomewhat not confident Not confident at all

    Dont know the person Unable to accessNo response

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Perceptions on UMNO PartyElections

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Of the three candidates vying for UMNO deputy presidency, who do you think isbest suited for the post?

    61%

    37%

    11%

    14%

    6%

    13%

    7%

    4%

    13%

    27%

    15%

    49%

    25%

    3% 2% 4% 5%

    44%52%

    8%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Muhyiddin Yassin Mohd. Ali Rustam

    Muhammad Muhd Taib Dont knowNo response

    Views on UMNO Party Elections, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Of the candidates vying for UMNO vice presidency, who do you think is best suitedfor the post [choose 3 names]?

    42%63%58%5%No response

    11%0%0%32%Dont know

    3%0%0%9%None of the above

    1%2%1%1%MohdIsaSamad1%3%1%1%RahimTambyChik

    2%2%3%2%Mohd. KhaledNordin

    3%6%1%1%Jamaluddin Jarjis

    5%7%5%2%ShafieApdal

    5%5%8%2%SyedHamid Albar

    6%8%5%4%Rais Yatim

    9%3%13%9%Ahmad Zahid Hamidi

    13%1%4%32%Hishamuddin Hussein

    Average3

    rd

    Choice2

    nd

    Choice1

    st

    ChoiceCandidate

    Views on UMNO Party Elections, Total [ n = 696 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Of the candidates vying for UMNO youth chief, who do you think is best suited tolead UMNO Youth?

    15%5%

    52%

    58%

    37%

    58%

    11%

    7%

    8%

    23%

    12%

    47%

    18%

    3% 2% 5% 6%

    10%11%

    13%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Khairy Jamaluddin Mukhriz Mahathir Mohd. Khir Toyo

    Dont know No response

    Views on UMNO Party Elections, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Of the candidates vying for UMNO Wanita chief, who do you think is best suited tolead Wanita UMNO?

    27%20%

    51%60%

    37%

    41%

    20%

    38%

    18%

    4% 3% 5% 8%

    33%26%

    10%

    0%

    10%

    20%30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Rafidah Aziz Shahrizat Jalil Dont know No response

    Views on UMNO Party Elections, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    Of the candidates vying for Puteri UMNO chief, who do you think is best suited tolead Puteri UMNO?

    21%

    8%

    26%

    33%

    12%

    32%

    54%

    74%

    49%

    4% 2% 7% 7%

    13%16%

    44%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Rosnah Abdul Rashid Sirlin Shahniza Shamsuddin

    Dont know No response

    Views on UMNO Party Elections, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

    24

    Between these two following statements about Umno party elections in 2009 whichone is closest to your view?

    50%

    11%5%

    34%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    A compromise among the

    Deputy President

    candidates is the best way

    to elect the most suitableleader without a split in the

    party.

    The Deputy President

    candidates should not

    compromise because the

    contest will not split theparty.

    Dont know No response

    Perception on Current Situation, Total [ n = 306 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    If the candidates for the Deputy President post decide to compromise, who do youthink is most suitable to hold the post of Deputy President?

    60%

    39%

    9%

    13%

    3%

    15%5%

    3%

    6%11%

    11%

    15%

    6%

    23%

    8%

    36%

    15%

    4% 1% 4%

    51%48%

    7%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    Total (n=306) Malay (n=90) Chinese (n=144) Indian (n=72)

    Muhyiddin Yassin Mohd. Ali Rustam

    Muhammad Muhd Taib Nobody suitableDont know No response

    Views on UMNO Party Elections, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

    26

    Now, I am going to read to you two statements concerning UMNO party election.After you hear each one, please tell me which one is closer to your opinion:

    16%

    2%4%

    79%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    Party delegates shoulddetermine UMNO leadership

    line-up without being influenced

    by anyone at all because it is

    an internal affair of the party.

    Party delegates should listen tothe views of people like you in

    determining UMNO leadership

    line-up because it will

    determine the leadership of the

    country

    Dont know No response

    Views on UMNO Party Elections, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    How strongly do you agree or disagree to.....?

    28% 23%34%

    41%

    22%20%

    25%23%7%

    6%

    11% 1%9%10%

    7%8%

    18% 26%3% 15%

    15% 14% 18% 9%

    2% 2% 2% 4%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Abolishing the nomination quota system in UMNO party election

    (a candidate has to receive a certain amount of nomination before he is

    eligible to contest)

    Strongly agree Somewhat agree Maybe

    Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Dont know

    No response

    Views on UMNO Party Elections, Total [ n = 1031 ]

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    National Opinion Poll: Perceptions on UMNO Party Elections 20094 16 February 2009, n = 1031

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    How strongly do you agree or disagree to.....?

    32% 27% 29%

    67%

    25%26%

    29%

    9%

    10% 10%

    15%

    3%11%

    14%

    9% 2%13% 17% 5% 11%

    7% 5% 11% 4%2% 1% 2% 5%

    0%

    20%

    40%

    60%

    80%

    100%

    Total (n=1031) Malay (n=592) Chinese (n=319) Indian (n=120)

    Ordinary members to be given the right to vote for UMNO top posts

    Strongly agree Somewhat agree Maybe

    Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Dont know

    No response

    Perception on Current Situation, Total [ n = 1031 ]