Understanding Decision-ClimateInteractions on Decadal Scales

James Done, Heather Lazrus, Rebecca MorssErin Towler, Mari Tye

Armin Munévar, Tapash Das

Jeff Czajkowski

Jennifer Hoeting, Josh Hewitt, Casey Schafer

County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Understanding Decision-ClimateInteractions on Decadal Scales

County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Understanding Decision-ClimateInteractions on Decadal Scales

County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Understanding Decision-ClimateInteractions on Decadal Scales

Potential Value of decadal prediction

County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Adapted from Meehl et al (2009)

Skill from Climate Forcing

Skill from Initial State

Decadal Prediction

5County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Project Approach

6Agency Meetings - Feb 2019

What is Skillful?

What is Needed?Morss et al. (2018)County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Temperature is Skillful

Better thana guess

Worse thana guess

Years 1-5

Years 5-9

County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Precipitation is not skillful . . . yet

Better thana guess

Worse thana guess

Years 1-5

Years 5-9

County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Why are we here?

To understand the key characteristics of useful decadal climate information for water management decisions.

How?

Get your reactions to a few images of the decadal climate predictions.

County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Russian River Focus

Source: NOAAhttps://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/who-rules-californias-russian-river

County Visit – Feb 8, 2019

Mean Annual Daily Minimum Temperature

Annual Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies

Observed and Predicted Daily Max Temperature

Wet Day Seasonality