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Understanding How Consumer Trends Shape Your Market. Culinary Tides, Inc. Suzy Badaracco, President Toxicologist, Chef, Dietitian. Who We Are…What We Do. Who we are: Private Trends Forecasting Think Tank – Staff = 7 2 Satellite offices – Washington DC, Tokyo - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Understanding How Consumer Trends Shape Your Market
Culinary Tides, Inc.Suzy Badaracco,
PresidentToxicologist, Chef,
Dietitian
Who We Are…What We Do• Who we are:
– Private Trends Forecasting Think Tank – Staff = 7– 2 Satellite offices – Washington DC, Tokyo– Forecast work is created through military intelligence techniques,
Chaos Theory– Background: BS Criminalistics, Assoc. Culinary Arts, MS Nutrition
• Toxicologist, Chef, Registered Dietitian
• What we do:– Partner long term w/ food industry clients – side along Think Tank– Look for patterns in Chaos to aid future strategy – Produce custom monthly & quarterly reports for clients
• Government, Technology, Adversaries / Allies, Competitors, Research, Flavor & Cuisine - tracked and forecasted specific to client
• Quarterly reports include updated 12-18 month forecast for each area
Chaos, Blips, Shadows, Trends• Chaos
– Birth
• Blips
• Shadows
• Trends– Tracking
• Consumers– Sentiment vs. Behavior, Drivers, Recovery Behavior
• Health Horizons– Generational Concerns– Health Drivers
• Flavor Horizons– Meal Patterns, Settings, Preparations, Flavor Landscape– Couriers, Ricochets, Rock Stars & Rising Stars, Orphan
• How to Play on a New Playground– Headwinds & Tailwinds, Forecast, Suggestions
Today’s Area of Focus
Consumers
The Generations: AgeThe Depression Era• Born: 1912-1921• Coming of Age: 1930-1939• Age in 2013: 92 to 101• Current Population: 11-12 million (and declining rapidly)
World War II • Born: 1922 to 1927• Coming of Age: 1940-1945• Age in 2013: 86-91• Current Population: 11 million (in quickening decline)
Post-War Cohort•Born: 1928-1945•Coming of Age: 1946-1963•Age in 2013: 68 to 85•Current Population: 41 million (declining)
Boomers I or The Baby Boomers• Born: 1946-1954• Coming of Age: 1963-1972• Age in 2013: 59-67• Current Population: 33 million
Boomers II or Generation Jones• Born: 1955-1965• Coming of Age: 1973-1983• Age in 2013: 48 to 58• Current Population: 49 million
Generation X• Born: 1966-1976• Coming of Age: 1988-1994• Age in 2013: 37 to 47• Current Population: 41 million
The Generations: AgeGeneration Y, Echo Boomers or Millennials• Born: 1977-1994• Coming of Age: 1998-2006• Age in 2013: 19 to 36• Current Population: 71 million
Generation Z• Born: 1995-2012• Coming of Age: 2013-2020• Age in 2013: 1-18• Current Population: 23 million and
growing rapidly
The Generations: Personality
Post War
discomfort
uncertainty
Cold War
securitycomfort
familiarity
known activities, environments
Boomers I
largely optimistic
good economic opportunities
Boomers II
economic struggles “I’m out for me”
narcissism
focus on self-help
skepticism -media /institutions
The Generations: Personality
Gen X“lost” generation
skepticism
“what’s in it for me”
“latchkey” kids
lowest voting participation
children of divorce
best educated
caution
pragmatism
concern over family
Gen Ytechnology wise
immune to traditional marketing
more ethnically diverse
flexible
style conscious
involved in family purchases
not brand loyal
not sustainability driven
price driven
eat according to social cues
Gen Z(++)
very brand loyal
sustainability driven
eat according to hunger
Influenced by peers, marketing, not parents
Consumer Sentiment vs. Behavior
3/13 4/13
Con
sum
er +
Con
sum
er -
*Shows recession vs. recovery behavior
Conference Board – consumer confidence h
Commerce Dept - consumer confidence h
Black Box- restaurant $ h
NRF- retail $ i
NRN-Millerpulse- same store $ h
NRA- restaurant performance index h
Consumer Reports- retail $ i
Reuters – Consumer confidence i
Black Box –same store $ h
Black Box –willingness to spend h
Black Box – restaurant traffic i
NRN-Millerpulse- same store $ h
Census Bureau- restaurant sales h
NRA- restaurant performance index h
Consumer Sentiment vs. Behavior*Shows recession vs. recovery behavior
Con
sum
er +
Con
sum
er -
5/13
Conference Board - consumer confidence h
Conference Board – sentiment index h
Conference Board – expectations index h
Conference Board – present situation index h
Black Box –same store $ h
NRN-Millerpulse- same store $ hCommerce Dept -
consumer spending h
Disconnect• Ignorance• Fear• Mis-informed• Sub-consciously
influenced• Denial• Cherry picked data
Conscious Lie• Mis-represent what they
paid for item• Buy something against
partner’s / parents wishes• To hide embarrassment• Anticipate correct answer
(surveys), leading q’s
Saying One Thing…Doing Another
*American Express research:Generation Y is more secretive and belligerent about money than baby boomers
• Texas A&M• Edelman Berland,
8095 Live
• Mintel
• Analytic Partners
• SocialVibe
• Industry Intelligence
• Cone Communications
• FGI Research
• Children between the ages of 3 and 8 - advertisements were more influential than parents
• 80% of Millennials want brands to entertain them, with 40% wanting brands to let them influence products via co-creation
• 90% of adults ages 25 to 34 prepared ethnic foods at home in the last month, 91% of adults with children under 18 made ethnic food
• About half of 18 and 44 year olds base brand loyalty on brand experience - video/online gaming, social media and third-party expert information through blogs and articles
• 70% of consumers actively engaged in social media have made a purchase as a result of being connected to a brand online
• 86% of US shoppers consider sustainability when buying groceries
• 91% of consumers say they would switch brands to one that supports a cause, and 90% say they would boycott if they learned of irresponsible behavior
• 36% of consumers say Meatless Monday campaign influenced their decision to cut back on meat and 47% ate more whole grains
Consumer Influencers
• InSites Consulting
• RAND Corporation
• NPD
• Accenture
• NPD
• NPD
• Just 4% of all Americans aged 15 to 25 thinks that a brand page on Facebook is a credible source of information about the product
• Teen snack purchases were influenced by taxes, subsidies and the presence of peers when buying snacks
• Consumers are looking for products made with less fats/oils, sodium and sweeteners, however, this has little influence on a diner’s choice of restaurant and menu item
• 20% of consumers switched the companies they typically buy from, an increase of 5% over 2011. However, 85% said companies could have done something to prevent them from switching
• 80% of US adults describe themselves as “extremely healthy” or “very healthy”, but only 20% have what is considered to be a “most healthy" diet
• 52% of Americans said figuring out their taxes is easier than knowing how to eat healthy, 23% of obese and 44% of overweight consumers say they are not trying to lose weight
Consumer Apathy / Disconnect
Generational Health ConcernsH
ealth
Issu
eA
ssoc
iate
d E
lem
ents
GenerationBoomers +Gen XGen Y
(Millennials, Echo Boomers, Boomerangers)Gen Z
Cognitive Function(Focus, Memory, Mood)
DigestionObesity
Cognitive Function(Focus, Mood, Stress)
DigestionObesity
Cognitive Function(Development)
Vision
Digestion
Obesity
Diabetes
Immunity
Heart Health
Digestion
ObesityCancer
Vision
Muscle / Joint
Immunity
Diabetes
Cognitive Function(Focus, Memory, Mood)
Omega 3’s
Pre, Probiotics
Fiber
Sat, Trans Fat
SugarCaffeine
Fiber
Pre, Probiotics
Sat, Trans Fat
Sat, Trans FatFiber
Pre, ProbioticsCaffeine
Vit D, Calcium, Mg
SaltSat, Trans Fat
FiberPre, Probiotics
Caffeine
Omega 3’s
Breakfast BreakfastBreakfast Breakfast
Health Trends: Drivers
Health
Prevention
Digestion
CVD
h Flexitarian
Vision
Obesity
SeniorsJoint / Bone
Fiber / Grains Muscle
Mood
Control
DigestionDiabetes
Kids
Menu Labeling
Acrylamide
Satiety
Calories
Salt, Sugar, Fat
Apps
Seasonal / Local
Cholesterol
Simplify
ConvenienceNaturally Healthy
Benefit?
UnprocessedTrustOrganic / Natural
Free From
Health ClaimsFood Safety
Sustainability
Cognitive FunctionEnergy
Development / DeclineDepression
Memory
Focus Sleep
Stress
Relaxation
Obesity
Portion Control
Satiety
Dining OutKids
Snacking
Flavor Horizons
Health Couriers*Couriers shuttle trends in from neighboring industries / focuses
Health Couriers
i Salt, Fat, Sugar
Botanicals
Double sided menus
Flavorful Health
Gluten free backlash
Mindful Snacks
Healthy Indulgences
Pure, Simple
Kids Focus
Meal Patterns
Meal Types
Vibrant
Seasonal
All Day Breakfast
Daypart Disintegration
Family Friendly Fine Dining
Farm Branded Ingredients
Perpetual Snacking
American Regionalism
Fast Casual Copycats
Kids Meal Evolution
Meal Settings & PreparationIn
spira
tion
Settings PreparationFactor
Tran
slat
ion *Rock Star Butchers, Millers, Bar Chefs
*Communal Tables, Shared Spaces
*Street Food, Underground Restaurants
*Pop-ups, Speakeasies
*Fast Casual, Approachable Fine Dining
*Vibrant, Inspired, Risk Taking
*Authentic, Rustic
*Approachable, Family Friendly
*Open Flame, Foraged
*House Smoked, Herb Infused
*Pickled, Fermented, Peppered
*Meatless*Minimally Processed
*Seasonal, Regional, Authentic
*Portion Size i, Portion Options h
*Scratch Prep, Wildcrafting*Adventure, Discovery
Wine & Travel Trends
Wine
Travel
South America
Central AmericaBelize
Panama
PeruBrazil
Guatemala
Argentina
Africa
Middle East
Jordan
LebanonIsrael
CongoSudan
Ethiopia
Oman
Regions
AfricaNZSpain
Argentina
Italy Chile
France
AsiaNepal
Philippines
Burma
CambodiaStyles
Petit Verdot Vouvray
Sweet Red
Muscato
Sparkling
Cocktails
House blends
Experiential
Themed
Leap/Bucket List
Earthing
Great Barrier Reef
Northern Lts Sports
Multi-Destination
SpaSpaceSettings
Happy Hours hSpeak-Easies
Rotating/GuestBartender
Flights
PacificTasmania
GalapagosCaribbean
Arctic
Iceland
Norway
Scandinavia
Antarctica
Sweden
Cuba
*Couriers - shuttle trends in from neighboring industries / focuses
Food & Flavor Landscape 2013Fa
mili
ar /
His
toric
al
Personality
Exp
erim
enta
l
Seasoning Fruit/Veg DairyMacro BeverageGrainProtein
Interpreters Type ASensualsCage-Dancers Bi-PolarsTree Huggers
*Barrel Aged Cocktail
*Kombucha
*Vietnamese Coffee
*Dessert Cocktail*Sipping Vinegar
*Kefir*Agua Fresca
*Bubbles
*Culinary Cocktails
*Micro-Distilleries
*Lemonade*Ancient Tea
*Coconut
*Moonshine*Hand Crafted
Soda
*Grapefruit
*Roots
*Coconut
*Berries
*Chilies*Kale
*Citrus
*Pumpkin
*Muntries*White
Strawberries
*Finger Limes*Hibiscus
*Sunchokes
*Mizuna*Seaweed
*Kimchee
*Wild Greens
*Offal
*Almond Butter
*Eggs
*Wild Game
*Beans
*Oysters*Sardines
*Smoke
*Pickling*World Salt
*Chilies
*Citrus
*Horseradish
*Chutney
*Zip code honey
*Curry
*Nordic*Flowers*Ashes
*Huacatay
*Flavored Heat
*Sour/Fermented*Miso
*Hyssop
*Geranium leaf
*Sprouted
*Grits*Arepas
*Freekah
*Chia
*Global Noodles
*Farro
*Black rice
*French Pastry*Quinoa
*Oats
*Lentils*Multi-grain
Tortillas*Waffles
*Popcorn*Greek Yogurt
*FarmsteadCheese
*Ricotta*Goat
Cheese
*Artisan soft serve
*Insects
*Goat, LambBellies
*Skin
*Lethal*Invasivors
*Blood*Bone Marrow
*Fin to Tail
*Salumi
*LebaneseYogurt
*Paneer
*Plant BasedDairy
*Burrata*Savory ice
cream
Flavor & Cuisines – Rock / Rising Stars
• Rock Stars• Soul Food• Asia – Korea, Vietnam• Central America –Regional
Mexico• South America – Peru• Middle East
• Rising Stars• Africa – Egypt, Morocco, S. Africa,
Kenya• Caribbean, Pacific- Cuba, Fiji, Tasmania• Asia – Nepal, Cambodia, Philippines• Central America –Nicaragua,
Guatemala, Belize• South America- Ecuador• Arctic – Denmark, Scandinavia, Norway
Pathways:
USA – Regional, Regional SpecialtyForeign Familiar (think Mexican) – Regional, Regional ComfortNuevo Foreign (think Middle East) – National, National Comfort
Other Flavor Factions & Their Parentage• Central America
– Fusion birth, Parents = Travel & So. American flavor trends– Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Belize, Honduras
• Asian Shift– Courier birth, Parent = Travel – Shift away from Thai, Japanese, Korean & towards Malaysia, Laos, Cambodia,
Nepal– Shift due to rise in consumer confidence, risk taking, adventure seeking
• Caribbean & Pacific– Courier birth, Parent = Economic recovery translated to travel shifts– Cuba, Bora Bora, New Zealand, Tasmania, Fiji, French Polynesia– Travel here signals luxury, time h, $$, playfulness
• Arctic– Fusion birth, Parents = Travel, Economic Recovery– Cross ties Arctic & EU – Antarctica, Nepal, Lapland, Iceland, Norway,
Scandinavia, Finland, Netherlands, Ukraine– Travel here signals solitude, bravery, $$, fearlessness, curiosity, exploration
Nordic: 1/11-3/13
Wine Ind.Bakery Food Mnft./RCA/IFT/ASTA
Hi-End Restaurant/ Celebrity Chef
Governments
Hollywood
Book Publishers
ADAAMAConsumer
Consumer Mags
Travel Ind.
Grocery
TV/News Mags
Industry Mags
Diet Ind.
Universities
Family / Quick Serve Restaurants
AACC
Packaging
Pharmaceutical
Cosmetics / Beauty
Biotech
Bars/Cocktails
*Birth
Overseas – Not USA
US
A
How to Play on a Changing Playground
Consumer Drivers - Recovery
Drivers
Economy
Men EvolveDeal Chic
Cost / Value Co-existRecession Rejection
Brands=ValueResilience
Optimism
Control, SafetyReassurance
Stability
Accountability
GMO
Legacy
Never Eat Alone
Health
Portion Options
Pure
FOP
Wellness=Quality
Kids
Snacking
Sustainability
Seasonal
Green Verification
Animal Rights
Re-commerce
Indigenous
Affordable Green
Risk Taking
Motivation
Family Meals
Mobile Relationships
Value
Simplicity
Authenticity
Escapism
Playfulness
BrandsInvigorating
Red Herrings
Red Herring• Gluten free • Private Label• Functional Food• Rock star chefs• Comfort Food • “Foodies” • Budget • Trade down • Frugality• Local
Re-FocusDiabetes (low GI)Brands make comeback, Brands = ValueWhole food, Nutrient density, PureRock star butchers, Bar chefs, FarmersGlobal Comfort, Playfulness, Adventure, RiskButcher, Baker, Agri, Renegade, YouTube ChefConvenienceTrade offRecession Rejection, Resilience, Value (not $)Global, Seasonal
Consumer Behavior: Recovery ForecastIn
spira
tion
Cause
Priorities Spending Food & FlavorFactor
Tran
slat
ion
Income hTime i Fear i
•Efficiency•Ease
• Convenience trumps budget
•Brands rebound
•Return to restaurants
•Travel abroad h
•Value•Worth
•Value trumps budget
•Organic rebounds
•Green spending h
•Trade off trumps trade down
•Coupon use i
•Explore
•Educate
• Exotic, experimental trumps comfort
•Luxury, Indulgence rebound
•Desserts in spotlight
•Playfulness, risk returns• Wine varietals,
regions h
Forecast: 12-18 months Convenience Store new competition for Grocery, QSR, Fast Casual
Restaurant performance, consumer confidence continue upward swing
Breakfast is mealtime to watch for signals of economic recovery– Breakfast traffic h = sign that economy h
Vegetarian / Flexitarian #s will be linked directly to sustainability, obesity– Sustainability & Obesity h = expect Veg / Flex h
Flavors / cuisines- more extreme, adventurous items as recovery unfolds
Wines will cross borders to unfamiliar regions, varietals
Beverages regionalize
Vegetable/seasonings demonstrate consumer experimentation vs. caution
Beverage, meat, dessert categories act as barometers for consumer mood– Cocktails, craft beer, wine $ h, desserts h, insect eating = recovery behavior– Cheap domestic beer, wine $ i, cocktails i, desserts i, meatloaf = recession behavior
Suggestions Know the birth and lifecycle of a trend prior to deciding to
enter so you can foretell how to navigate it
Neither love nor hate a trend – emotions will fog the trend’s true pattern and you may be blindsided when it shifts
Spend more time researching a trend’s personality and trajectory than worrying about what your competitors are doing – after all, they may be idiots
Thank You!
Culinary Tides, Inc.
Suzy BadaraccoPresident
[email protected]://twitter.com/sbadaracco
(503) 880-4682