Understanding Industry Staffing Patterns in U.S. Employment

Projections

Dixie SommersAssistant Commissioner

Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor

September 29, 2011

2

Employment Projections

BLS projections approach What we project Employment projections process

overview National Employment Matrix

Projecting staffing patterns

3

BLS projections approach

Projections for 10 year periods Produced every two years

– 2008-2018 currently available– 2010-2020 to be published in early 2012

BLS produces national projections State workforce agencies produce

projections for States and areas Employment concept

Jobs, not persons

4

BLS projections approach

Assume a “full-employment economy” for the target year (2018) Labor market in balance No overall labor surplus or shortage Target unemployment rate at a full

employment level Other assumptions and target

variables Energy prices, interest rates, and

more

5

What we project

Four inter-related components Labor force size and composition

– Overall labor supply as constraint on growth

Aggregate economy – Gross domestic product and its

components Industry demand

– Final demand, output, and employment Occupational demand

– Employment– Job openings from replacements

Employment projections process

Labor ForceTotal and by age,

sex, race and ethnicity

Aggregate EconomyGDP, total

employment, and major demand

categoriesOccupational

Employment

Job openings due to growth & replacement

needs

Industry Final Demand

Sales to consumers, businesses,

government, and foreigners

Industry Employment

Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage &

salary employment

Industry OutputUse and Make

Relationships, Total Requirements

Tables

Population

Labor force participation rate

trends

Demographics Fiscal policy

Foreign economies

Energy prices Monetary policy

Staffing patterns

Staffing pattern ratio analyses

Replacement rates

Economic censusesAnnual economic

surveysOther data sources

Industry output

Sector wage rates

Technological change

Input-Output Tables

6

National Employment Matrix

Matrix or set of tables For each industry, the distribution of

employment by occupation or “staffing pattern”

Inverse matrix: for each occupation, the distribution of employment by industry

293 industries by 750 occupations– Self-employed and unpaid family workers

treated as industry vectors

Data shown as Percent distributions or “ratios” Cell employment = ratio x industry

employment7

National Employment Matrix

Base-year matrix (2008) data sources Occupational Employment Statistics

(OES)– Employer survey – Wage and salary workers– All industries except private households

and most of agriculture Current Population Survey

– Household survey– Self-employed and unpaid family workers– Private household workers and most

agriculture workers

8

9

Occupational Employment Statistics

(OES) survey BLS establishment survey

Sample of 1.2 million establishments

Collected over 3-year period Wage and salary employment

Total employment by occupation Percent distribution of employment in

each industry by occupation (staffing pattern)

About 800 detailed occupations Hourly or annual wages

OES data for Residential building

construction

10

SOC code Major Occupation GroupEmployment,

May 2008Percent of industry

total

Annual mean wage,May 2008

00-0000 All Occupations 872,480 100.00 $45,110

11-0000 Management occupations 70,330 8.06 $95,700

13-0000 Business and financial operations occupations 35,720 4.09 $60,500

17-0000 Architecture and engineering occupations 9,300 1.07 $60,790

19-0000 Life, physical, and social science occupations 840 0.1 $62,700

21-0000 Community and social services occupations * * $41,850

23-0000 Legal occupations 650 0.07 $92,010

27-0000 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 3,810 0.44 *

29-0000 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 100 0.01 *

33-0000 Protective service occupations 690 0.08 *

37-0000Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 9,210 1.06 $25,880

39-0000 Personal care and service occupations 480 0.06 *

41-0000 Sales and related occupations 34,890 4 $59,470

43-0000 Office and administrative support occupations 125,350 14.37 $32,870

45-0000 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 70 0.01 $23,360

47-0000 Construction and extraction occupations 556,560 63.79 $40,270

49-0000 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 11,150 1.28 *

51-0000 Production occupations 2,390 0.27 $37,300

*Not available

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics

OES data for Residential building

construction

11

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics

Detailed construction occupations with 2,500 or more workers

SOC code Occupation title Employment, May 2008

Percent of industry total

Annual mean wage,

May 2008

47-2031 Carpenters 265,840 30.47 $41,010

47-2061 Construction laborers 116,070 13.3 $31,150

47-1011First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers

76,410 8.76 $58,810

47-3012 Helpers--carpenters

32,400 3.71 $25,940

47-2141 Painters, construction and maintenance

12,260 1.41 $33,710

47-2051 Cement masons and concrete finishers

10,790 1.24 $38,510

47-2073Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators

6,260 0.72 $43,720

47-2111 Electricians

6,030 0.69 $46,210

47-2081 Drywall and ceiling tile installers

4,840 0.55 $39,560

47-2152 Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters

3,880 0.44 $47,290

47-2021 Brickmasons and blockmasons

2,960 0.34 $45,890

47-2181 Roofers

2,850 0.33 $33,100

National Employment Matrix

Projected-year matrix (2018) Ratios projected to capture expected

change from factors affecting utilization of occupations within industries

– Changes in technology– Changes in product mix– Changes in business practices

Developed using “ratio analysis”– Results in “change factor matrix” – Rational for change recorded 12

13

National Employment Matrix

Multiply projected industry employment by the projected staffing pattern Results in projected employment by

occupation for each industry Sum the results for each

occupation across all industries Results in total projected employment

by occupation

14

National Employment Matrix

Answers questions such as: In 2008, what percent of all workers

in the Residential building construction industry work in the occupation Construction Managers?

In 2018, what percent of all workers in the Residential building construction industry do we expect to work in the occupation Construction Managers?

National Employment Matrix, Residential building

construction

15

Employment by industry, occupation, and percent distribution, 2008 and projected 2018.236100 Residential building construction (employment in thousands)

Occupation

2008 2018

Percent change

Employ-ment

changeEmploy-

mentPercent of industry

Percent of occupa-

tion

Employ-ment

Percent of industry

Percent of

occupa-tion

00-0000 Total, all occupations 832.1 100.00 0.55 996.9 100.00 0.60 19.81 164.811-1300 Management, business, and financial occupations 101.1 12.15 0.64 123.2 12.36 0.71 21.78 22.011-0000 Management occupations 67.1 8.06 0.75 80.4 8.07 0.86 19.93 13.411-1000 Top executives 17.3 2.08 0.79 18.4 1.85 0.84 6.33 1.111-1011 Chief executives 2.3 0.27 0.57 2.4 0.24 0.60 4.35 0.111-1021 General and operations managers 15.0 1.81 0.87 16.0 1.61 0.93 6.63 1.011-2000

Advertising, marketing, promotions, public relations, and sales managers 2.4 0.29 0.38 2.9 0.29 0.41 22.07 0.5

11-2020 Marketing and sales managers 2.3 0.27 0.43 2.8 0.28 0.46 22.59 0.511-2021 Marketing managers 0.9 0.11 0.52 1.0 0.10 0.53 15.21 0.111-2022 Sales managers 1.4 0.16 0.39 1.7 0.17 0.43 27.53 0.411-2031 Public relations managers 0.1 0.01 0.15 0.1 0.01 0.15 15.70 0.011-3000 Operations specialties managers 4.3 0.52 0.28 5.0 0.50 0.30 15.87 0.711-3011 Administrative services managers 0.9 0.11 0.36 1.1 0.11 0.38 16.99 0.211-3031 Financial managers 2.2 0.26 0.40 2.5 0.25 0.43 15.75 0.311-3040 Human resources managers 0.1 0.02 0.11 0.2 0.02 0.12 16.86 0.011-3041 Compensation and benefits managers 0.1 0.01 0.15 0.1 0.01 0.16 17.11 0.011-3049 All other human resources managers 0.1 0.01 0.10 0.1 0.01 0.11 16.64 0.011-3051 Industrial production managers 0.1 0.01 0.05 0.1 0.01 0.06 12.85 0.011-3061 Purchasing managers 0.8 0.09 1.11 0.9 0.09 1.25 14.72 0.111-9000 Other management occupations 43.1 5.17 0.95 54.1 5.43 1.13 25.69 11.111-9021 Construction managers 39.5 4.74 7.16 49.9 5.01 7.73 26.56 10.5

Continued….

Projecting changes in staffing patterns within industries Analysts use occupational expertise

and empirical evidence to make decisions about how occupational utilization may change over the projections period

Provide rationale describing forces underlying the recommendation

Iterative process

Ratio Analysis

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Show proportional change in an occupation’s projected share of industry employment Projected-year ratio = change factor x base-year

ratio For Carpenter’s helpers in Residential building

construction:4.04 = 1.09 x 3.71

Developed through the Ratio Analysis process

Change Factors

17

Rationales should present a reason why employment of an occupation should change as a share of industry employment “A small increase is expected in utilization of Carpenters helpers

because prefabricated carpentry work is shipped to construction sites more frequently, these workers will be used as a low-cost alternative to carpenters.”

Rationales for Ratio Changes

Occupation (Industry)

Percent of

Industry

Projected Industry

Growth Rate

Change

Factor

Projected

Percent of

Industry

Occupational Growth

Rate in this Industry

Carpenters helpers(Residential building construction)

3.71 18.44 1.09 4.04 30.32

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Change FactorsChange Factor

magnitude Description

0.50 Very large decrease

0.65 Large decrease

0.80 Moderate decrease

0.90 Small decrease

1.00 No change

1.10 Small increase

1.20 Moderate increase

1.35 Large increase

1.50 Very large increase

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Total shares of industry employment must equal 100 percent Application of initial change factors does

not result in correct totals Scaling used to force additivity Resulting projected-year ratios will not

equal initial ratios Change factor review and scaling

repeated until no further analysts requests for changes are made

Ratio Analysis

20

Ratio Analysis

Occupation

2008 2018

Change factor

Employment change, 2008-18

Employment

Percent of

industryEmployme

ntPercent of industry Number Percent

Total, all occupations 832.1 100.00 996.9 100.00 1.00 164.8 19.81

Construction managers 39.5 4.74 49.9 5.01 1.06 8.7 25.44

Carpenters 253.5 30.47 294.0 29.49 0.97 40.4 15.94

Carpenters helpers 30.9 3.71 40.3 4.04 1.09 9.4 30.32

All other helpers, construction trades 1.2 0.15 1.5 0.15 1.00 0.3 25.34

Example results for Residential Building Construction(employment in thousands)

21

Ratio Analysis Impact

Without ratio analysis– Assume that staffing patterns would not

change over the projection period– All occupational employment change

would result from industry employment change

How much difference does ratio analysis make?

– Apply base-year staffing patterns to projected-year industry employment

– Compare the result with actual projections made using ratio analysis 21

Ratio Analysis Impact

Changes total employment by occupation Shifts of employment into the

occupation Shifts of employment out of the

occupation Net change

22

Ratio Analysis Impact

Shifted about 4.5 million jobs from one occupation to another 2.69 percent of total jobs projected

for 2018

23

Employment Impact of Ratio Analysis on the 2008-18 Projections CycleAll numbers in thousands.  

 Occupation Jobs moved out

Jobs moved

in

Net

impact

Percent of

2018 jobs

moved out

Percent

of 2018

jobs

moved in

Net percent impact

Total, All Occupations -4,467.4 4,467.4 0 -2.69% 2.69% 0.00%

Ratio Analysis

25

Business and financial operations

Life, physical, and social science

Healthcare support

Computer and mathematical science

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Education, training, and library

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Personal care and service

Community and social services

Architecture and engineering

Protective service

Food preparation and serving related

Legal

Production

Sales and related

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

4.76%

3.62%

3.03%

2.85%

2.37%

2.05%

1.94%

1.81%

1.69%

1.39%

1.28%

1.12%

0.53%

0.51%

0.39%

0.12%

Positive net percent impact of ratio analysis on projected employment by major occupation group, net job shift as percent of 2018 projected

employment

Ratio Analysis

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Construction and extraction

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Transportation and material moving

Office and administrative support

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Management

-5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0%

-0.07%

-1.34%

-2.70%

-3.04%

-3.53%

-3.70%

Negative net percent impact of ratio analysis on projected employment by major occupation group, net job shift as percent of 2018 projected

employment

Using the matrix

Using the matrix to understand industries and occupations Industry structure Concentration of occupations in

industries Distribution of occupational

employment across industries

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Largest occupations in Residential building

construction

Occupation2008

Employment

2018 Projected

employment

Projected

percent change

Projected numerical

change47-2031 Carpenters 253.5 294.0 15.94 40.4

47-2061 Construction laborers 110.7 144.3 30.32 33.6

47-1011

First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 72.9 95.0 30.32 22.1

11-9021 Construction managers 39.5 49.9 26.56 10.5

47-3012 Helpers—Carpenters 30.9 40.3 30.32 9.4

43-9061 Office clerks, general 28.2 32.7 15.98 4.5

43-6014

Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive 27.2 29.2 7.46 2.0

43-3031

Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 23.4 27.2 15.94 3.7

13-1051 Cost estimators 16.1 20.9 30.35 4.9

11-1021 General and operations managers 15.0 16.0 6.63 1.0

43-6011

Executive secretaries and administrative assistants 14.1 16.3 15.89 2.2

41-9022 Real estate sales agents 12.1 14.0 15.97 1.9

47-2141 Painters, construction and maintenance 11.7 13.9 18.46 2.2

47-2051 Cement masons and concrete finishers 10.3 11.7 13.53 1.4

(Employment in thousands)

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Occupations concentrated in Residential building

construction

29

Occupation

2008 2018

Percent change

Employ-ment

changeEmploy-

ment

Percent of

industry

Percent of occupatio

nEmploy-

ment

Percent of

industry

Percent of occupatio

n47-3012 Helpers—Carpenters 30.9 3.71 38.71 40.3 4.04 40.90 30.32 9.447-2031 Carpenters 253.5 30.47 19.73 294.0 29.49 20.27 15.94 40.447-1011

First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers 72.9 8.76 10.44 95.0 9.53 11.79 30.32 22.1

47-2061 Construction laborers 110.7 13.30 8.86 144.3 14.47 9.59 30.32 33.613-1051 Cost estimators 16.1 1.93 7.37 20.9 2.10 7.67 30.35 4.911-9021 Construction managers 39.5 4.74 7.16 49.9 5.01 7.73 26.56 10.547-2051

Cement masons and concrete finishers 10.3 1.24 5.12 11.7 1.17 5.15 13.53 1.4

47-3019

All other helpers, construction trades 1.2 0.15 4.49 1.5 0.15 5.01 25.34 0.3

47-2022 Stonemasons 0.9 0.11 3.87 1.1 0.11 4.06 17.11 0.227-1025 Interior designers 2.5 0.30 3.49 2.8 0.28 3.23 10.48 0.349-9095

Manufactured building and mobile home installers 0.3 0.04 3.36 0.4 0.04 3.51 9.96 0.0

47-2131

Insulation workers, floor, ceiling, and wall 0.9 0.11 3.35 1.0 0.10 3.19 9.40 0.1

(Employment in thousands)

Industries where most Carpenters work

30

Industries with 2008 employment of 15,000 or more for Carpenters

Industry

2008 2018

Percent change

Employ-ment

changeEmploy-

ment

Percent of

industry

Percent of

occupa-tion

Employ-ment

Percent of

industry

Percent of

occupa-tion

000000 Total employment, all workers 1,284.9

0.9

100.0

1,450.

3

0.9

100.0

12.9

165.4

SE1300 Self-employed workers, all jobs 411.2

3.5

32.0

458.0

3.7

31.6

11.4

46.8

236100Residential building construction 253.5

30.5

19.7

294.0

29.5

20.3

15.9

40.4

236200Nonresidential building construction 160.2 19.36 12.46 184.6 18.63 12.73 15.27 24.5

238100Foundation, structure, and building exterior contractors 131.0 13.27 10.20 147.6 13.08 10.18 12.63 16.5

238300 Building finishing contractors 126.8 13.89 9.87 147.7 14.41 10.18 16.51 20.9

561300 Employment services 24.3 0.77 1.89 30.1 0.80 2.07 23.58 5.7

321900Other wood product manufacturing 17.1 6.46 1.33 15.4 6.42 1.06 -10.24 -1.8

(Employment in thousands)

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BLS projections products

Projection data for each component Data tables Technical outputs for researchers

News release Analysis in the Monthly Labor

Review Technical documentation

BLS projections products

Occupational Outlook Handbook

Career Guide to Industries

Occupational Outlook Quarterly

32

33

BLS projections products

Occupational Outlook Handbook Nature of the work Training, other qualifications, and

advancement Employment and job outlook Earnings Related occupations Sources of additional information

34

References

Employment Projections http://www.bls.gov/emp/

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) http://www.bls.gov/oes/

Occupational Outlook Handbook http://www.bls.gov/oco/

Occupational Outlook Quarterly http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq

Career Guide to Industries http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/

Contact Information

Thank you!

Dixie SommersAssistant Commissioner

Bureau of Labor StatisticsU.S. Department of Labor

2 Massachusetts Avenue, NEWashington, D.C. 20212Sommers.Dixie@bls.gov