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UNDERSTANDING THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
German OEM behaviour during the last 20 years and
its implications
Christoph Mazur1,4,5,*, M. Contestabile2, G. Offer3, N. Brandon4,5
1Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, UK2Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, UK3Mechanical Engineering Department, Imperial College London, UK4Earth Science Engineering Department, Imperial College London, UK5Energy Futures Laboratory, Imperial College London, UK
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Christoph Mazur
� Developing Sustainable Technology
Diffusion Pathways for Alternative
Mobility Technologies
� Background
– Grantham Institute for Climate Change
– Climate-KIC (Knowledge and Innovation Community – EU)
– Energy Adviser (Parliamentary Office for Science and Technology)
– Manufacturing Engineer (Daimler Buses North America)
– Mechanical Engineering & Business Administration (RWTH Aachen)
– Industrial Design and Innovation (Ecole Centrale Paris)
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
The challenge
Transition towards Electric Cars
ICE
PHEV
HEVFCEV
EV
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Changes in propulsion technology
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Photos: Imalipusrams, S 400 HYBRID, Mario Roberto Duran Ortiz, Avda, Steve Jurvetson (all Wikipedia Commons users) , stevelyon (Flickr)
Changes in manufacturing
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Photos: Scania Group, Steve Jurvetson (flickr)
For the Automotive Industry
Or threat?
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Role of the industry for the economy29 mil
42 mil
Car stock
1.9 mil
2.9 mil
Market sales
1.3 12.7 mil
Carsproduced
0.7 5 mil
Jobs
50 317 bil
Turnover
13%
14%
Share ofCO2 causedby transport
Market Automotive Industry
Industrial Landscape (OEMs)
and many more and many more
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Questions?
� Develop and to achieve Sustainable Technology Diffusion Paths for Alternative Mobility Technologies.
� Are the current policies adequate to reach sustainability goals?
� Is it possible to predict the consequences of governmental policies and industrial strategies on the transition outcomes for the industry?
Need to understand automotive industry
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
The study
Understanding the automotive industry
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Motivation for study
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
(Geels, 2002)
Producing
Market Share(local)
Productattractiveness(local market)
Vehicle price-
+
Economies ofScale
+
Total #vehicles
manufactured
Manufacturingcosts per unit
-
+
Revenues
Product R&D
+
learning curve
+-
Sales produced
+
+<PUBLIC
PROCUREMENT>
+
<PURCHASE
GRANT>
-
<PUBLIC SUBSIDY
FOR R&D>
+
Economies of Scale (Manufacturing) Learning Curve (Manufacturing)
Research and development
Learning Curve (Product quality)
Product quality and
performance
+
+
+
Obtaining parameters for model
� Technology choice, Research and Development
Production, Manufacturing, etc.
� Behavioural patterns
� Triggers
� Time scales
� Typical responds
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Study of BMW, Daimler and VW since 1990
Scientific journals and press Annual reports
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Timelines
Timelines
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
The results
BMW, Daimler and VW since 1990
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
SUV boom
Landscape (the regime)
1990 20132000
Landscape & regime for automotive industry
Crisis is main topicFuel cell hype EV hype
Strict ZEV
standards
announced in
California
ZEV
relaxed
200591 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 01 02 03 04 06 07 08
EVs solution for future
09 11 12
EU discusses 140g CO2 limit by 2008/09ACEA agreement
average of 140 g/km of CO2 by 2008
Toyota
Prius
Honda
Insights
Hydrogen hype (Daimler) Hybrid race due to success of Toyota Prius
US White HousseBlueprint for Secure
Energy Future (focus on batteries, no hydrogen)
US Secretary Chu
announces stop of FC
funding (congress stops
that)EU discusses
130 g CO2/km
limit by 2015,
95g by 2020
Toyota Japan launches
2nd gen Prius
Tesla success
story
Volt, Leaf, iMiEV,
SmartEV
Vehicles below
120gCO2/km tax free
Competitors
USA
Germany/EU
Mood
Product/conceptR&D and trialsInternal Collaboration
10
Crisis
SUV boom
Story of BMW
1990 20132000
Landscape & regime for automotive industry
BMW
Crisis is main topicFuel cell hype EV hype
Strict ZEV
standards
announced in
California
ZEV
relaxed
200591 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 01 02 03 04 06 07 08
EVs solution for future
09 11 12
EU discusses 140g CO2 limit by 2008/09ACEA agreement
average of 140 g/km of CO2 by 2008
Toyota
Prius
Honda
Insights
Hydrogen hype (Daimler) Hybrid race due to success of Toyota Prius
US White HousseBlueprint for Secure
Energy Future (focus on batteries, no hydrogen)
US Secretary Chu
announces stop of FC
funding (congress stops
that)EU discusses
130 g CO2/km
limit by 2015,
95g by 2020
Toyota Japan launches
2nd gen Prius
Tesla success
story
Volt, Leaf, iMiEV,
SmartEV
Vehicles below
120gCO2/km tax free
Competitors
USA
Germany/EU
Mood
Trial with 500 Mini EV in US & 50 in Germanyefficiency improvements (GDI,
common rail diesels, valvetronicengine)
Change of opinion on hybrids
BMW i3 EV unveiled.Scheduled for 2013 Disappointing
experiences with EV and FC
Hydrogen Combustion stopped
H2R vehicle speed record
with hydrogen
15 750hL hydrogen combustion vehicles for expo 2000
Announcement that 750hL goes in series
2002
100 BMW combustion hydrogen demonstrator
750hL leased out
Tests with LNG vehicles
Setting up PEM R&D group for APU
Starting SOFC APU research and division
Petrol vehicle petrol with SOFC APU and reformer
750hL hydrogen combustion prototype
BMW 1 hybrid with engine and 5kw PEM (not APU)
BMW ACTIVE EV test fleet launched
project i
Work on X5 SUV
X5 design finished
X5 production launched
Launch of BMW 1 sales
New CEO
First EV concept E1
Trials with combustion of hydrogen since
1979
BMW i3 EV launched
Collab with GM and Daimler announced
SB LiMotivebattery
cooperation
Toyota EV cooperation 2012/2013
Collaboration with SGL Carbon and partly
purchase 2011
Joint Venture
with PSA on Hybrid Tech
Hybrid Develop Center coop with GM
BMW Nixes
BLUETEC Alliance
Product/conceptR&D and trialsInternal Collaboration
10
Crisis
SUV boom
Story of Daimler
1990 20132000
Landscape & regime for automotive industry
Crisis is main topicFuel cell hype EV hype
Strict ZEV
standards
announced in
California
ZEV
relaxed
200591 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 01 02 03 04 06 07 08
EVs solution for future
09 11 12
EU discusses 140g CO2 limit by 2008/09ACEA agreement
average of 140 g/km of CO2 by 2008
Toyota
Prius
Honda
Insights
Hydrogen hype (Daimler) Hybrid race due to success of Toyota Prius
US White HousseBlueprint for Secure
Energy Future (focus on batteries, no hydrogen)
US Secretary Chu
announces stop of FC
funding (congress stops
that)EU discusses
130 g CO2/km
limit by 2015,
95g by 2020
Toyota Japan launches
2nd gen Prius
Tesla success
story
Volt, Leaf, iMiEV,
SmartEV
Vehicles below
120gCO2/km tax free
Competitors
USA
Germany/EU
Mood
Product/conceptR&D and trialsInternal Collaboration
Dornier Fuel Cell team switched from space work on fuel
cell vehicle
First FCEV
Necar I
FCEV
NecarII
CEO: ”100k FCEVs in 2004”
Stop of H2 ICE
Smart sales below expectations
FCEV
NecarV
Smart announced
A class EV 2010
announced
FC NecarIV, A, sandwich floor
FC NecarIII
methanol reformer
Smart forfourpresented
FCEV
F 600 HY
FCEVs expected in 2012-15
Low sales8600 jobs lost
New CEO
Smart forfourstopped
Bluetec-Diesel in USA & 2008 in Europe
SmartEVtrial in Berlin
B, FC, PHEV concepts in Detroit
S 400 Hybrid
500 EV A-ClassE-Class hybrids
Car2Go pilot GER
2000 smart EV
3rd gen fortwo
SLS EV
in US
FC-HEV
F 800
100 Smart EVs
SmartEVwith Zytek
Daimler AG
CA FR
Smart escooter& B EVfor2014
Hamburg
FCEV
F125
20 EVs trials
Diesel HEV F500
CDI technology
Sust.divisionrestructuration
1000 smartEV200 B FCEV
CEO: “FCEV in 2015 on market”
Mild-hybrid and start-stop
Cal FC Partnership Ford, Ballard, BP,
Shell
Stake in Ballard
JV Ford Ballard
Swatch Micro Compact JV
Ballard FCs for bus
Battery (Li-Tec) & BMS
(ACCUmotive) JV with Evonik. Mass market in
2012?
Ford leaves JV
10% Tesla,. 1000 batteries for smart
Ballards sells FCEV division
Ballard FC deal
Li-Tec plantopens
ACCUmotiveproduction start
Li-Tec production increased 10x
Diesel HEV collaboration GM & BMW
Daimler
10
Crisis
SUV boom
Story of VW
1990 20132000
Landscape & regime for automotive industry
Crisis is main topicFuel cell hype EV hype
Strict ZEV
standards
announced in
California
ZEV
relaxed
200591 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 01 02 03 04 06 07 08
EVs solution for future
09 10 11 12
EU discusses 140g CO2 limit by 2008/09ACEA agreement
average of 140 g/km of CO2 by 2008
Toyota
Prius
Honda
Insights
Hydrogen hype (Daimler) Hybrid race due to success of Toyota Prius
US White HousseBlueprint for Secure
Energy Future (focus on batteries, no hydrogen)
US Secretary Chu
announces stop of FC
funding (congress stops
that)EU discusses
130 g CO2/km
limit by 2015,
95g by 2020
Toyota Japan launches
2nd gen Prius
Tesla success
story
Volt, Leaf, iMiEV,
SmartEV
Vehicles below
120gCO2/km tax free
Competitors
USA
Germany/EU
Mood
Product/conceptR&D and trialsInternal Collaboration
VW
7 years “Best New Engine Award”1.4L TSI, More amall engines to sedans
Cross Coupé PHEV concept
E-Golf , A3 e & gas tron launch
e-up! concept
Plan to launch 6 PHEV in 2014
95gCO goal by 2020
XL1 Super Efficient
L1 2nd gen
H2 and e-gas plant
Golf BEV Audi e-trontest fleet in US
SUV diesel PHEVconcept
Golf Blue Motion
Golf TDI BlueMotionGolf BlueMotion
TDI + Start-Stop + Reg. + Cyl. deactiviation
Touareg
& Q5 Hybrid
Focus on highly efficient combustion; Natural gas vehicles; Second-generation biofuels (e.g., BTL and cellulosic ethanol);
CEO: “EVs e-up in 2013”
Diesel Polo
Bluemotion
A3 HEV concept
1-liter car, A2L3 cancelled& Lupo
A1 e-tronconcept
e-up! EV show case
Electric, gas and CNG up! concept
XL1 PHEV prototype
Audi electric drive hires 840 engineers
Golf Blue-e-motion
1-liter car revived
High temp PEM
Capri Project 96-2000, Golf HEV (20 kW FC) concept
FC concept (PSI in 2001)
Touran HyMotion FC
FCEV concept
Full hybrid SUVs (Cayenne based)
up! concept
Lupo 3L
Chico PHEV at IAA
EVs only perceived as niche (focus on combustion)
Strategie2018
Introduction of gas and petrol bi fuel vehicles
Pilot plant for Sun diesel
VW 1-liter car
New CEO (with enginebackground)
AudiA2 3L
Golf TDI Diesel- HEV Concept
Battery coop with Sanyo (2006), Varta and Toshiba (2009), Panasocnic (2012)
Coop with Rosneft(CNG)
BiofuelCooperation
Lichtblicke 2.0L VW CHPs
Model Fuels Consortium
DaimlerChrysler and VW/Audi Launch BLUETEC clean diesel initiative (US Market)
Alliance forSynthetic FuelsEurope“ (ASFE)
Crisis
SUV boom
Comparison
1990 20132000
Landscape & regime for automotive industry
Crisis is main topicFuel cell hype EV hype
Strict ZEV
standards
announced in
California
ZEV
relaxed
200591 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 01 02 03 04 06 07 08
EVs solution for future
09 11 12
EU discusses 140g CO2 limit by 2008/09ACEA agreement
average of 140 g/km of CO2 by 2008
Toyota
Prius
Honda
Insights
Hydrogen hype (Daimler) Hybrid race due to success of Toyota Prius
US White HousseBlueprint for Secure
Energy Future (focus on batteries, no hydrogen)
US Secretary Chu
announces stop of FC
funding (congress stops
that)EU discusses
130 g CO2/km
limit by 2015,
95g by 2020
Toyota Japan launches
2nd gen Prius
Tesla success
story
Volt, Leaf, iMiEV,
SmartEV
Vehicles below
120gCO2/km tax free
Competitors
USA
Germany/EU
Mood
10
130
150
170
190
210
230
[g CO2 / km]
Crisis
The conclusions
Technology choices: behavioural patterns of German
car manufacturers
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Common patterns with regard to pressures
� No changes without significant external pressures
– Emission targets in Europe
– ZEV in California
– Perception of rising fuel prices
� Regulations and consumer pressure are main drivers for
technology change while national /global economic indicators
not
� Research subsidies not sufficient
R&D bound to long term goals and decisions
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Common patterns with regard to solutions
� New solutions are created through combinations of available
internal solutions
� However, disruptive only triggered by disruptive (internal)
events
– New CEOs
– Competitor’s ‘success’ (Toyota Prius, Daimler FCEV)
– Consumer pressure
� Knowledge on disruptive or less familiar technologies is
obtained from third parties
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013
Future work: Quantification of findings
Thanks for attention
Acknowledgments
� Grantham Institute for Climate Change (Imperial College London)
� Climate Knowledge and Innovation Community (European Institute of Innovation and
Technology)
� UK EPSRC for the grant ’’SUPERGEN 14: Delivery of Sustainable Hydrogen’’
� Career Acceleration Fellowship for Gregory Offer, award number EP/I00422X/1,.
Christoph Mazur
Electric Vehicle Symposium 2013 - EVS27Barcelona 17th - 20th Nov 2013