Unemployment Insurance Program Outlook

Unemployment Insurance Program

Outlook President’s Budget 2022

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UI Contributions, Benefits Paid and Reserves (% of Total Wages)

Forecast

Contributions

Benefits Paid

Division of Fiscal and Actuarial Services

Office of Unemployment Insurance

Employment and Training Administration

U.S. Department of Labor

KEY DATA -- FY 2021/FY 2022

FY 21 FY 22

Total Unemployment Rate (Civilian) 6.0 / 4.3 %

Insured Unemployment Rate 2.7 / 1.4 %

OUTGO

Benefits Paid (All Programs) $ 473.4 / 40.0 billion

Number of First Payments (State UI+UCFE+UCX) 21.1 / 8.3 million

Average Duration of Benefits (All Programs) (1) 38.8 / 15.8 weeks

Average Weekly Benefit Amount (All Programs) (1) $ 577.30 / 305.00

Administrative Costs $ 9.5 / 5.0 billion

INCOME

Payroll Taxes

FUTA $ 6.3 / 6.5 billion

State $ 48.1 / 52.7 billion

Interest on State Loans $ 0.05 / 0.62 billion

NET TRUST FUND BALANCES (END OF FISCAL YEAR)

State Trust Fund Accounts

(Excluding Loans) $ -12.1 / 5.5 billion

Employment Security Administration Account (ESAA) $ 2.0 / 2.6 billion

Extended Benefit Account (EUCA) (Excluding General Fund Advances) $ -14.4 / -13.3 billion

Loan Account (FUA) (Excluding General Fund Advances) $ 12.3 / 12.4 billion

(1) Includes CARES Act programs. AWBA includes FPUC and MEUC benefits.

President's Budget FY 2022 Page 2 Prepared by: USDOL/ETA/OUI


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

KEY DATA ................................................................................................. 2

OVERVIEW ................................................................................................. 4

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ........................................................................... 5

CHART -- TUR-IUR COMPARISON .................................................................. 6

SUMMARY OF UI ESTIMATES ..................................................................... 7

COMPARISON OF PROJECTIONS ................................................................... 8

CHART -- COMPARISON OF OUTLAY ESTIMATES .......................................... 9

HISTORICAL UI PROGRAM DATA ................................................................ 10

CHART -- HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED OUTLAYS ....................................... 11

STATUS OF STATE ACCOUNTS ................................................................... 12

CHART -- OUTLAYS VS. REVENUES ............................................................. 13

STATUS OF ESAA ...................................................................................... 14

STATUS OF EUCA ...................................................................................... 15

STATUS OF FUA ........................................................................................ 16

DEFINITIONS ............................................................................................ 17



OVERVIEW

Twice each year, when the Office of Management and Budget issues economic assumptions for the federal budget, the Division of Fiscal and Actuarial Services (DFAS) of the Office of Unemployment Insurance (OUI) uses those assumptions to develop financial projections for the Unemployment Insurance (UI) system. Using the economic assumptions, the paths of key program variables are projected for the following five years. Highlights of the analysis for the FY 2022 President’s Budget are detailed below: Note: Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, there was no Mid-session Review of the FY 2021 President’s Budget completed therefore

prior budget estimates used for comparisons in this report were completed prior to any impacts of the Covid-19 recession.

The total unemployment rate (TUR) is assumed to average 6.0% in FY 2021 and drop to 4.3% in FY 2022.

The insured unemployment rate (IUR) is projected to average 2.7% in FY 2021 and 1.4% in FY 2022. State UI regular benefit outlays are estimated to be $59.8 billion in FY 2020 and $35.3 billion in FY 2021, significant declines

from FY 2020 when regular state UI benefit outlays totaled $125.3 billion. State benefit outlays are projected to exceed revenues and interest income for state trust fund accounts by $11.2 billion in FY

2021 before reversing course in FY 2022 as benefit outlays decrease rapidly and states rebuild their trust funds. In FY 2022 revenues and interest income for state trust fund accounts are expected to exceed benefit outlays by $17.7 billion.

During the projection period, state trust fund account balances net of Federal Unemployment Account (FUA) Title XII loans

are projected to rebound significantly from the projected low point in FY 2021. The net state trust fund account balance is projected to end FY 2021 at -$12.1 billion, before increasing to $73 billion in FY 2026.

At the end of FY 2020, 19 states had an outstanding Title XII FUA loan balance. State Title XII loan balances (EOY) are

projected to peak as of the end of FY 2021 at $43.3 billion, and are expected drop to $12.1 billion by the end of FY 2026. At the beginning of Calendar Year 2021, 13 of 53 states and territories had trust fund reserves large enough to meet the

recommended minimum adequate solvency level of maintaining a reserve balance that would pay for one full year of benefits under an average recessionary level (Advisory Council of Unemployment Compensation, 1996). This is down from 31 at the start of FY 2020.

Advances from the general fund are projected to end FY 2021 at $43 billion to FUA and $10 billion to the Emergency

Unemployment Compensation Account (EUCA). Additionally, EUCA continues to maintain an outstanding inter-account transfer balance of $7.1 billion owed to FUA, which dates back to the previous (2007) recession.

Enacted Legislation These projections include the impact of the CARES Act programs as amended. Benefit costs for all programs in FY 2020 totaled $468.2 billion and are projected to total $508.4 billion in FY 2021. The bulk of funding for this program comes from the general fund, however Federal funding for the Extended Benefits program continues to be paid from EUCA. Proposed Legislation The tables in this publication are based on current law. The FY 2022 President’s Budget request includes a number of provisions to improve the administration and integrity of the UI program. These provisions include updating the administrative factors used in determining funding levels, funding to develop modular Federal UI technology capabilities to help improve access to the UI system, and additional funding to continue to build and support the UI Integrity Center’s Integrity Data Hub cross-match systems. Questions and/or comments regarding this document are welcome, please contact Kevin Stapleton at [email protected] or Helen Simachew at [email protected] or write to:

Office of Unemployment Insurance U.S. Department of Labor, Room S-4524,

200 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20210



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ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONSFY 2022 President's Budget

Change inCivilian GDP Real GDP

Fiscal Year TUR (%) IUR (%) Price Index (%) Growth (%)

2020 7.3 6.1 1.3 -2.3

2021 6.0 2.7 1.7 3.2

2022 4.3 1.4 1.8 4.8

2023 3.9 1.2 1.9 2.5

2024 3.8 1.2 2.0 1.9

2025 3.8 1.2 2.0 1.8

2026 3.8 1.2 2.0 1.8



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U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

TUR IUR



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UI PROGRAM ESTIMATESFY 2022 President's Budget(Billions of Dollars)

FISCAL YEAR 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Civilian TUR (%) 6.0 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8IUR(%) 2.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2Coverage (millions) 140.9 145.3 147.1 148.2 149.2 150.1AWBA (Regular) 349 400 419 436 452 467

Benefit Outlays (All Programs) 253.94 36.50 34.48 35.34 36.82 38.32

STATE UI

First Payments (millions) 8.5 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3Regular Benefit Exhaustions (millions) 8.9 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2

Regular Benefits Paid 59.84 35.33 33.70 34.65 36.17 37.66EB (State Share) 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

State Collections 48.15 52.66 52.76 50.90 46.38 44.51Interest Earned 0.53 0.51 0.67 0.89 1.15 1.39

FEDERAL ACCOUNTS

FUTA Collections (1) 6.28 6.49 6.62 6.73 6.83 6.94 -To EUCA 1.26 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39 -To ESAA 5.02 5.20 5.29 5.38 5.47 5.55

Outlays -Federal EB Share 8.59 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -CARES - PUA 86.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -CARES - PEUC 90.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -CARES - 1st Payments 6.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -Administrative Costs 9.52 4.96 4.19 4.44 4.63 4.78

FECA Outlays 1.27 0.62 0.51 0.52 0.55 0.56 -UCFE 1.00 0.39 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.30 -UCX 0.28 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.26 0.26

Trade Benefits 0.06 0.27 0.27 0.17 0.10 0.10

FPUC 248.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00MEUC 13.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(1) Excluding Reduced Credits

Note: Administrative costs for years beyond 2022 are based on growth factors applied to all

programs in the Federal budget.



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COMPARISON OF PROJECTIONS(Billions of Dollars)

FY 2022 President's Budget FY 2021 President's Budget

FY 2021 FY 2022 FY 2021 FY 2022

Civilian TUR (%) 6.0 4.3 3.60 3.75IUR (%) 2.7 1.4 1.15 1.17AWBA 348.66 399.69 382.96 399.22

Benefits -Regular 59.84 35.33 28.64 30.53 -EB 8.59 0.28 0.00 0.00

Revenues -State 48.15 52.66 35.78 36.20 -FUTA (1) 6.28 6.49 7.16 7.30

State Loans -Loans 28.98 10.72 0.00 0.00 -Repayments (2) 19.78 17.37 0.01 0.01 -Interest 0.05 0.62 0.00 0.00 -Balance 43.26 36.61 0.04 0.03

Balances -State Accounts (3) -12.13 5.51 95.55 103.47 -EUCA (3) -14.38 -13.32 -0.16 3.37 -FUA (3) 12.29 12.39 10.94 11.14

(1) Excluding reduced credits(2) Including reduced credits (3) Net balances excluding loans/advances



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PB FY22 TUR (%)

PB FY21 TUR (%)

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$ Billions

UI Program Estimates

PB FY 22 Regular State UI PB FY 22 FUBA+FECA+FPUC+MEUC

PB FY 22 EB + PEUC PB FY 22 PUA

PB FY 21 Regular State UI PB FY 21 FUBA+FECA+FPUC+MEUC

PB FY 21 EB + PEUC PB FY 21 PUA

PB FY 22 TUR PB FY 21 TUR

President's Budget (PB) FY 2022:_____________________________________________________

President's Budget (PB) FY 2021:__________________________________________________________

Total Unemployment Rate (%):___________________________________________________________



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HISTORICAL UI PROGRAM STATISTICS(Billions of Dollars)

FISCAL YEAR 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Civilian TUR (%) 6.5 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.0 3.7 7.3IUR (%) 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 6.1Coverage (millions) 133.1 135.9 138.6 140.7 143.3 144.8 139.4AWBA (Regular) 301 314 331 340 345 356 308

Benefit Outlays 41.90 32.57 32.32 30.50 28.32 27.36 195.12 (All Programs)

STATE UI

First Payments (millions) 7.2 6.6 6.3 5.8 5.3 5.1 29.7Regular Benefit Exhaustions (millions) 3.2 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 7.0Regular Benefits Paid 35.88 31.72 31.54 29.81 27.61 26.87 125.26EB (State Share) 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00State Collections 46.89 42.18 41.46 38.44 36.40 34.63 36.86

FEDERAL ACCOUNTS

FUTA Collections 5.45 5.77 5.98 5.98 6.84 6.36 6.16 -To EUCA 1.24 1.30 1.25 1.27 1.30 1.23 1.23 -To ESAA 4.21 4.47 4.73 4.71 5.54 5.13 4.93

Outlays -Federal EB Share -0.01 -0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.13 -CARES - PUA (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.43 -CARES - PEUC (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.52 -CARES - 1st Payments (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.27 -Administrative Costs 4.36 3.95 3.92 4.02 4.06 4.04 5.88 -EUC08 4.84 -0.23 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

FUBA/FECA Outlays 1.16 0.98 0.74 0.67 0.71 0.66 0.69 -UCFE-UCX 0.92 0.77 0.55 0.44 0.41 0.36 0.48 -Trade 0.24 0.21 0.19 0.22 0.30 0.30 0.21

Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 275.46Mixed Earner Unemployment Compensation (1) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(1) Programs enacted by the CARES Act (March 2020) or subsequent legislation extending/expanding Covid-19 related UI provisions.



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UI Program Outlays

Reg Benefits Extended Benefit Programs

FUBA + FECA + FPUC PUA

Reg Benefits (Proj.) Extended Benefit Programs (Proj.)

FUBA + FECA + FPUC + MEUC (Proj.) PUA (Proj.)

TUR TUR (Proj.)

($Billions) (Percent %)($Billions) (Percent %)

Projected:_________________________________________________________________

Historical:_________________________________________________________________

Total UnemploymentRate:_____________________________________________________________________

TUR(%)

TUR(%)



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STATUS OF STATE ACCOUNTSFY 2022 President's Budget(Billions of Dollars)

FISCAL YEAR 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Income -- 84.23 63.89 61.44 58.90 54.40 51.82

Collections -- 48.15 52.66 52.76 50.90 46.38 44.51

Interest Earnings -- 0.53 0.51 0.67 0.89 1.15 1.39

Loans -- 28.98 10.72 8.01 7.11 6.61 5.91

Excess Reduced Credits -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00

Reed Act/UI Modernization Transfers -- 6.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Outgo -- 79.69 52.91 47.52 46.88 44.58 44.60

Benefits -- 59.84 35.47 33.70 34.65 36.17 37.66

Loan Repayments -- 19.78 17.37 13.75 12.17 8.35 6.89

Administration -- 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

Balance (End of Year) 26.60 31.13 42.12 56.04 68.06 77.88 85.10

Outstanding Loans 34.08 43.26 36.61 29.42 21.93 16.86 12.10

Net Balance (Excluding Loans) -7.48 -12.13 5.51 26.62 46.13 61.02 73.00



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$ BILLIONS

FISCAL YEARS

AGGREGATE STATE TRUST FUND STATUS

Outgo Income Net Balance



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STATUS OF ADMINISTRATION ACCOUNT (ESAA)

FY 2022 President's Budget(Billions of Dollars)

FISCAL YEAR 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Income -- 11.38 6.59 6.69 6.80 6.91 7.02

FUTA Income -- 6.28 6.49 6.62 6.73 6.83 6.94

General Revenues -- 5.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


Transfers from FUA/EUCA -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Outgo -- 9.52 4.96 4.19 4.44 4.63 4.78

State Administration -- 9.29 4.73 3.95 4.19 4.38 4.53

-UI -- 8.28 3.70 2.91 3.13 3.29 3.43

-ES,BLS,VETS -- 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.11

Federal Administration -- 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.25

Transfers to FUA/EUCA -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Preliminary Balance (End of Year) 3.94 4.54 4.87 5.00 4.69 4.49 4.31

FUA/EUCA Overflow 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Balance 4.01 4.54 4.87 5.00 4.69 4.49 4.31

Owed to FUA EUCA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Owed from FUA EUCA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ESAA Payable (2) 2.78 2.50 2.25 2.03 1.82 1.64 1.48

Net Balance 1.23 2.04 2.61 2.97 2.87 2.85 2.83

-Ceiling (1) 2.09 2.04 1.57 1.65 1.75 1.82 1.88

-Excess 0.00 0.00 1.04 1.33 1.12 1.03 0.95To EUCA 1.27 0.00 0.00 1.04 1.33 1.12 1.03To FUA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00To States (Reed Act) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(1) Statutory ceiling is 40% of the current year's appropriations.(2) ESAA Payable is the amount of unliquidated obligations for administration and is deducted from the net

balance.

Note: Administrative costs for years beyond 2022 are based on growth factors applied to all programs in theFederal budget.



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STATUS OF EXTENDED BENEFIT ACCOUNT (EUCA)FY 2022 President's Budget(Billions of Dollars)

FISCAL YEAR 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Income -- 183.56 1.36 2.40 2.71 2.52 2.45

FUTA Income -- 1.26 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.37 1.39


General Revenue for CARES -- 172.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Overflow from ESAA -- 0.00 0.00 1.04 1.33 1.12 1.03

Transfers from FUA/ESAA -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

General Fund Advances -- 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Outgo -- 186.31 3.30 2.59 2.75 2.81 2.00

EB Outlays -- Fed Share -- 8.59 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CARES Outlays - PUA -- 86.81 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CARES Outlays - PEUC -- 90.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Transfers to FUA/ESAA -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

Repayment to General Fund -- 0.00 3.00 2.50 2.70 1.80 0.00

Interest on General Fund Advances -- 0.11 0.16 0.09 0.05 0.01 0.00


Owed to General Fund 0.00 10.00 7.00 4.50 1.80 0.00 0.00

Owed to FUA/ESAA 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08 6.08 4.08 Owed from FUA/ESAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Net Balance -1.62 -14.38 -13.32 -11.00 -8.34 -5.83 -3.38

-Ceiling (1) 34.91 34.76 37.45 39.11 40.70 42.43 44.05

-Excess 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(1) Statutory ceiling is 0.5% of covered wages



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STATUS OF LOAN ACCOUNT (FUA)FY 2022 President's Budget(Billions of Dollars)

FISCAL YEAR 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Income -- 43.47 25.17 19.83 17.62 15.60 13.00


State Repayments -- 19.78 17.37 13.75 12.17 8.35 6.89

Reduced Credits -- 0.01 0.01 1.44 2.42 3.33 3.78

General Revenue for CARES -- 0.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

State Interest Payments -- 0.05 0.62 0.50 0.42 0.34 0.27

Overflow from ESAA -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Transfers from EUCA/ESAA -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00

General Fund Advances -- 23.00 7.00 4.00 2.50 2.50 0.00

Outgo -- 52.42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

State Loans -- 28.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

CARES Outlays - 1st Payments -- 6.57

Transfers to EUCA/ESAA -- 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Repayment to General Fund -- 16.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Interest on General Fund Advances -- 0.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


Owed to General Fund 36.00 43.00 36.00 28.00 19.50 13.00 6.00

Owed from States 34.08 43.26 36.61 29.42 21.93 16.86 12.10

Owed to ESAA/EUCA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Owed from ESAA/EUCA 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08 7.08 6.08 4.08

Net Balance 19.05 12.29 12.39 12.47 12.59 12.70 12.83

-Ceiling (1) 34.91 34.76 37.45 39.11 40.70 42.43 44.05

-Excess to ESAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

(1) Statutory ceiling is 0.5% of covered wages.



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DEFINITIONS

EB Extended Benefits -- Permanent triggered program

ES Employment Service

ESAA Employment Security Administration Account

Provides grants to states for UI and ES

EUC08 Emergency Unemployment Compensation, 2008

Temporary extended benefit program enacted July 2008

EUCA Extended Unemployment Compensation Account

Pays Federal share of EB and EUC08

FAC Federal Additional Compensation

Temporary $25 supplement to all UI payments

FECA Federal Employees Compensation Account

Pays benefits to UCFE and UCX claimants

FPUC Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation

A $600 supplement to all UI payments through July

31, 2020; A $300 supplement to all UI payments

from March 11, 2021 through Sept. 6, 2021

FUA Federal Unemployment Account

Makes repayable advances to state trust funds

FUBA Federal Unemployment Benefits and Allowances

Benefit payments to Trade Act claimants

FUTA Federal Unemployment Tax Act

FY Fiscal Year

GDP Gross Domestic Product

IUR Insured Unemployment Rate

MEUC Mixed Earners Unemployment Compensation

Temporary $100 supplement to individuals receiving at least $5,000

of self-employment income

OUTYEARS Years beyond the budget year

PEUC Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation

Temporarily extends benefit program during COVID-19.

PUA Pandemic Unemployment Assistance

Temporarily expands unemployment insurance eligibility

TEUC Temporary Extended Unemployment Compensation

Temporary extended benefit program, March 2002 – January 2005



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TUR Total Unemployment Rate

UCFE Unemployment Compensation for former Federal Employees

UCX Unemployment Compensation for ex-Servicemen

UI Unemployment Insurance

UTF Unemployment Trust Fund



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Documents

Unemployment Insurance Program Outlook