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Unit 1

Population Pattern, Data

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News?

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iRAT This is a closed-book, no notes test! You have 10 minutes to complete the test. Circle the correct answers to each question on

the answer sheet provided. Also record your answers on the question

sheet. When you are done, turn over your paper to

signal that you have finished. Turn in the answer sheet

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tRAT—as a team (Closed Book!)

• You have 15 minutes• Designate one person to be

the official team “scratcher.”• Don’t select an answer until

your team agrees.• Use a coin or a key to

scratch.• You’ll know you have the

correct answer when you find the star!

“Missed” questions?

Does any team want to appeal?

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A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

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7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

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10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

FutureBillions

World Population Growth Through History

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What do you think is the most important reason for population growth?A) Higher birth rateB) Lower death rateC) Massive immigration

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A.D.2000

A.D.1000

A.D.1

1000B.C.

2000B.C.

3000B.C.

4000B.C.

5000B.C.

6000B.C.

7000B.C.

1+ million years

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7

6

5

2

1

4

3

OldStoneAge New Stone Age

BronzeAge

IronAge

MiddleAges

ModernAge

Black Death —The Plague

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10

11

12

A.D.3000

A.D.4000

A.D.5000

18001900

1950

1975

2000

2100

FutureBillions

World Population Growth Through History

7Agricultural RevolutionIndustrial Revolution

Population growth over time Most of the history: hunting-gathering

society, high fertility and mortality, small population

Agricultural revolution: 4 Million Time of the Christ (1 A.D.): 250 million Industrial revolution (1750): 800 million 1750-1950: rapid increase, 2.5 billion 1950 -: even more rapid increase, now

7+ billion

Why Was Early Growth Slow? During the hunting-gathering phase, life

expectancy was very low (~ 20 years). High mortality More than half of children born died before

age 5. The average woman who survived to the

reproductive years would have to bear nearly 7 children to assure 2 survived to adulthood.

Why Are More Recent Increases So Rapid? Acceleration in population after 1750 was due to

declines in the death rate during the Industrial Revolution. Higher standard of living Better food, cleaner water, sanitation system,

public health system … Post-WWII rapid population growth in LDCs

Import of medical technology from MDCs Continuing population increases are due to dramatic

declines in mortality without a commensurate decline in fertility (even though fertility IS declining).

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1936-1938

1946-1948

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

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Fertility is declining, but there are more reproductive women

0.6

0.9

1.82.0 2.0

1.3

0

1

2

3

1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050

Bill

ion

s

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Ch

ildre

n p

er

wo

ma

n

Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman12

3

Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years

44

5459

71

56

49

6770

76

65

Africa Asia LatinAmerica/Caribbean

More DevelopedRegions

World

1965-1970 2000-2005 13

It’s certain world population will continue to grow

79 Million People Are Added to the World’s Population Each Year Year Population

in billionsAnnual rate of growth

Annual increase in millions

1804 1 0.4 4

1927 2 1.1 18

1960 3 1.3 52

1974 4 2.0 75

1987 5 1.6 81

1999 6 1.4 80

2011 7 1.2 79

2025 8 0.9 67

2045 9 0.4 39

Team Activity Doubling time: the time required for a population to

double in number if the current rate of growth continues

In 2011, the growth rate for the world population was 1.2%, what is the doubling time? A) 18 years B) 25 years C) 37 years D) 58 years E) 75 years

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Doubling Time “Rule of 69”:

DT=69/growth rate in percentage DT=ln2/growth rate as a decimal

69/1.2=57.5 Does this mean that the population WILL double

in 58 years? Why or why not?

In general, doubling time has declined over time, but recently has been increasing

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4

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Carrying Capacity Refers to the number of people that can

theoretically be supported in an area given the available physical resources and the way that people use those resources.

Change over time, space and culture Extensive vs. intensive use of resources Short-term vs. long-term

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Team Activity Is carrying capacity larger in the U.S.

than China? A) Yes B) No

Why?

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Team Activity With 7.5 Billion population, have we

overshot the carrying capacity of the earth? A) Yes B) No

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Geographic Perspective Population geographers: Where (location)? How (spatial process)? What is the pattern of population

distribution? What are the causes (why) and

consequences of such population distribution?

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Team Activity

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What are the most important characteristics of world population?

List top 3 Write on board

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Geographic Distribution (1995)

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World Population Uneven distribution Five countries, 49% population, 21% land China + India: 42% pop

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World’s 10 Most Populous Countries: 59% of world population

1. People’s Republic of China

2. India3. United States4. Indonesia5. Brazil

6. Pakistan7. Bangladesh8. Nigeria9. Russia10.Japan

Cartogram of Countries of the World by Population Size

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6

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World Population by Region at the Turn of Three Centuries: 1800, 1900, and 2000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

1800 1900 2000

Latin America &Caribbean

Asia & Oceania*

Africa

North America,Australia,Japan, & NewZealandEurope

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Population in millions

* Excludes Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.

Sources: UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (2005) and Briefing Packet, 1998 World Population Prospects (October 1998); and I.B. Taeuber, The Population of Japan (1958): 21-23.

World Population by Continents, 2016

Continent Population (in millions)

% of Total Population

Africa 1,203 16.2North America 360 4.9Latin America and Caribbean

637 8.6

Oceania 40 0.5 Asia 4437 59.8Europe 740 10.0Total 7,417 100

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Geographic Distribution Uneven distribution Uneven growth rates World average 1.2% per year in 2011 Five of the top ten countries are growing

more rapidly than the average: Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India,

Indonesia Five are growing slower: Russia, Japan, China, US, Brazil

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35 36

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Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

Projected Population ChangePercent Population Change, 2005-2050

Geographic Distribution Uneven distribution Uneven growth rates Developing vs. developed regions Four out of five most populous countries

are LDCs: China, India, Brazil, Indonesia Growth rate is generally higher in LDCs

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Global population growth:A developing country phenomenon

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050

39Source: United Nations Populations Division, World Population Prospects, The 2004 Revision, medium variant.

Developing countries

Billions

Developed countries

The “Future” is in Developing Regions!

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North-South Divide

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Trends in Aging by World RegionPercent of Population Age 65 or Older

53 4 4

88

3

7 7

1614

6

15 16

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World Africa Asia Latin Americaand the

Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

1980 2010 2040

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (medium scenario), 2009.

South-North Divide The south has higher birth rates,

higher death rates, and younger populations than the north.

These differences, and the variability within the south in these differences, will drive the future.

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Geographic Distribution Uneven distribution Uneven growth rates Developing vs. developed regions Increasingly urban

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30

15 17

55

47

37 38

7560

53 54

84 83

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World Africa Asia Latin America/Caribbean

MoreDeveloped

Regions

1950 2000 2030

Percent of Urban Population by Region

2008: 50% urban% vs. size of urban population

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The Urban Revolution As population grew dense in a region, people used

to move to a less populated area, now they move to urban areas.

As recently as 1800, less than 1% of the world’s population lived in cities of 100,000 or more.

More than 1/3 of all humans now live in cities of that size, and more than half live in urban places of any size.

Urban populations grew in some countries even without industrialization, as places sprang up where goods and services were exchanged.

“the second wave of urban revolution” in LDCs

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Largest Cities

49 50

51 52

53 54

10

55

% urban population over time

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Team Activity: Due to unevenness in population

distribution, migration has been the most important dynamics to adjust the spatial distribution of population. Please draw major migration streams in history on the world map.

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Geographic Distribution Redistribution through migration From rapidly growing areas into less

rapidly growing areas From developing countries to developed

countries From rural to urban areas

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Redistribution of the World’s Population through Migration European expansion (14th to 20th centuries)

Europe to North and South America Africa to Latin America, Caribbean and North America

South to North migration (20th & 21st centuries) Latin America and Asia to the United States Asia to Canada Africa and Asia to Europe

Judith Blake “population growth used to be a reward for doing well; now it’s a scourge for doing badly”.

Redistribution of the World’s Population through Migration But the latest projection by PRB: more migration between developing

countries in the future (south-south migration)

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Percent of population foreign-born, Canada, Ireland, and Spain, 1960-2005

Source: United Nations Population Division.

Foreign-Born Populations Are Generally Rising in the Industrialized World …

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Percent of population foreign-born, Gabon and Malaysia, 1960-2005

Source: United Nations Population Division.

… But Foreign-Born Populations Are Also Rising in the Developing World.

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The rapid urbanization especially in LDCs indicates massive internal migration.

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Population Distribution Uneven distribution Uneven growth rates Developing vs. developed regions North vs. south contrast

Increasingly urban, more mega cities Massive migration/immigration

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Team Activity In 2050, most of you will be around

55-60 years old. What kind of world would you be living in 2050? List top 3 main characteristics

Write on the board

GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 68

Global Population in 2050 9.7 Billion

GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 69

Global Population in 2050 9.7 Billion Getting older: 1.5 Billion 65+

GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 70

Percentage change in population

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Median age, 2010 and 2050Pressure on workers

Global Population in 2050 9.7 Billion Getting older: 1.5 Billion 65+ Population shift to Africa

GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 75 GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 76

Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.

The World’s Youth Population Will Become More Concentrated in Africa and Asia.

Population Ages 15-24 by World Region: 1950 and 2050

1950 2050

77GOG 344Y Youqin Huang

Global Population in 2050 9.7 Billion Getting older: 1.5 Billion 65+ Population shift to Africa India becomes the largest population

GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 78

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GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 79

Global Population in 2050 9.7 Billion Getting older: 1.5 Billion 65+ Population shift to Africa India becomes the largest population Population losers: Japan, Russia,

Germany (>10%)

GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 80

GOG 344Y Youqin Huang 81

Demographic Data Data is the cornerstone of

demographic and population analyses Population vs. sample Types of data: Primary Secondary

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Team ActivityWhich of the following would not be

a typical source of demographic data?A) National archivesB) Censuses of populationC) Birth registration dataD) School enrollmentE) A national household survey

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Sources of Demographic Data Census Registration of vital events – vital statistics:

Birth, death, marriage, divorce, and incidence of certain infectious diseases

Administrative data e.g. USCIS, IRS, DMV, school enrollment, utility

companies Sample survey

To address a specific question To address theoretical concerns; “why” CPS, ACS, AHS, PSID, WFS

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Sources of Demographic Data Census The UN definition: “the total process of

collecting, compiling and publishing demographic, economic and social data pertaining, at a specific time or times, to all persons in a country or delimited territory”

Goals: Taxation, distribution of military obligations, determination of political status, allocation of welfare, resources, …keep tract of the population

Census of the U.S. Every 10 years since 1790 1902: the Census Bureau Information: demographic, housing;

concerns of the time Long vs. short form 1/6 of population get the long form

2010 Census Replacing long-form with American

Community Survey (ACS) in 2010 Conducted every year (1996-), 0.5 --> 2 M Age, sex, race, family and relationships,

income and benefits, health insurance, education, veteran status, disabilities, where you work and how you get there, where you live and how much you pay for some essentials

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Team ActivityA census based on the de jure

population countsA) all people who are present in a given

territory on census day.B) all people who are living a given

territory.C) only immigrants and their children.D) Only natural born citizensE) None of the above

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Census De facto pop: where they are at the time of census

De jure: Usual place of residence Preferred

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Limitations of/Errors in the Census

Very expensive, often every 10 years Different countries at different times Sampling error Nonsampling error

Content error Coverage error Undercount

Team Activity: Why is undercount a problem?

Undercount in 2010 census Overall: 1.1% for renters

(homeowners over counted by 0.6%) Blacks: 2.1% Hispanics: 1.5% American Indians and Alaska natives

living on reservations: 4.9%

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Missing individuals are disproportionately minorities

Why should we care?

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Data Sources U.S. Census Bureau Population Reference Bureau (PRB)

World Population Data Sheet Population Institution United Nations Population Fund Statistical Abstract of the United States Demographic Yearbook by the Unite Nations Data centers

Michigan Census Research Data Center ICPSR (Inter-university Consortium for Political and

Social Research) Journals/books …

Re-cap World population in time and space Main characteristics of world

population Demographic data sources, issues

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