Unit 5: Project Work: Selecting a Problem

Visual 5-1 Project Work: Selecting a Problem

Leadership 2: Application of Personal Leadership in Emergency Management

Unit 5: Project Work: Selecting a Problem


Unit Objectives

Upon completion of this unit, you will be able to…

● Given the discussion of potential ideas for the action project with the accountability team, select a pertinent issue to address with the project.


Activity 5.1

Selecting a Problem ● In the space provided individually describe 2-3

problems or issues which you believe need to be addressed.

● Convene as an accountability team. Share your selections. Provide feedback.

● Select the problem you wish to address with the action project and write a justification.

● Submit the worksheet for grading and instructor feedback tomorrow.


Activity 5.1 Summary

● Each organization has issues which require leadership action to be resolved.

● Consideration must be given to each problem or issue to determine if leadership can impact or resolve the situation.

Visual 6-1 Decision Making


Unit 6: Decision Making and Creating Solutions


Unit Objectives

● At the end of this unit, the participants should be able to: ● Identify the different decision-making

models and the decision-making process. ● Make effective proactive decisions in

ambiguous command situations.


Unit Overview

● Characteristics of Effective Decision Makers ● The Role of Values, Creativity, Intuition,

Assumptions, and Inference in Decision Making ● Decision Making Models

● Rational Decision Making ● Recognition Primed Decision Making ● Ethical Decision Making

● Decision Making Approaches ● Analyzing Outcomes


Characteristics of Effective Decision Makers

● Knowledge

Understand the incident and consequences.

● Initiative Assume responsibility for the process.

● Advice seeking Know when help is needed and want it.

● Selective data Seek pertinent data in appropriate amounts.



● Comprehensive view Consider every possible alternative.

● Judgment Understand that proper procedures do not always result in sound decisions.

● Flexibility Remain open and flexible.



● Calculated risk taking Weigh risk, responsibilities, rewards, and results

● Self-knowledge Recognize capabilities, biases, and limitations

● Currency Make decisions that respond to the current conditions


The Role of Values in Decision Making

● Values assist in prioritizing end goals in risk-management situations.

● Are used to identify options for action.

● Facilitate planning and decisions among many stakeholders.

● Provides context for intuition.

● Can uncover unknown or hidden goals / agendas



One example of a value-focused document is The National Preparedness Goal.



Value-focused decision making can open opportunities for innovation and creativity.

Is creativity encouraged in your organization? Among leadership?

?


?

The Role of Creativity in Decision Making

Conflict Resolution and Creating Alternatives.

“Is it ‘safer’ for institutions to stick to the known, and tried and true (or tried

and failed) than to experiment with creative alternatives that may have unforeseen

consequences? Why?



What do you consider the pros and cons of creativity? ?



What do you think the role of creativity should be in decision making? ?


The Role of Intuition in Decision Making

● …IS part of every professional’s decision making.

● …IS NOT a magical 6th sense.

● …Is NOT the opposite of reason.

● …IS based on years of experience and knowledge.

INTUITION…



What are the difficulties with intuition in decision making?

Why is intuition important in decision making?

?



What role does intuition play in your organization… ● during response? ● during day to day

operations? ● in policy?

?


The Role of Assumption and Inference in Decision Making

ASSUMPTION ● Something we take

for granted or presuppose.

● Something we previously learned and do not question.

● A part of our system of beliefs.

INFERENCE ● An intellectual act

by which one concludes that something is true in light of something else’s being true.

VS


Different people may make different inferences regarding the same situation based on their individual viewpoints.

Inference That man is in need of help.

Assumption Anyone lying

in the gutter is in need of help.

Inference That man’s a bum. Assumption Only bums lie in gutters.

Inference That man is in need of help.

Assumption

Anyone lying in the gutter

is in need of help.


The Role of Assumption and Inference in Decision Making

The correctness of any action taken or not taken is judged by whether the inference is logical, and whether the underlying assumption is accurate.

Assumption Bum

Assumption In need of

help


Decision-Making: Models

Rational Decision Making Model

Recognition Primed Decision Making Model

Ethical Decision Making Model


Rational Decision Making Model

What is Rational Decision Making?

A systematic approach to decision making that identifies solutions to a problem through deliberate steps designed to compare all possible options to reach the best decision for the problem presented.


Rational Decision Making Model (RDMM)

● Traditional, scientific approach to decision making.

● Structured and organized. ● Requires:

● Clear definitions of a problem and goal. ● A cost-benefit analysis among various alternative

solutions. ● The model is less effective in dynamic, chaotic

situations with high urgency decisions.


Rational Decision Making Model (RDMM) (cont.)



Three requirements for effective application of the rational decision making model: 1. Time to process information and evaluate

the alternatives. 2. Data. A large amount of data is required

to understand the problem. 3. Procedures for analyzing and evaluating

the data.



Why is the rational decision making model better suited for situations which allow adequate time to process information, identify alternatives, evaluate those alternative, and then make a decision?

?


Recognition-Primed Decision Making Model (RPD)

● Recognition-primed decision making model (RPD) is a type of naturalistic decision making.

● Naturalistic models assume it is not feasible to fully quantify a problem and find a solution mathematically during an emergency situation.

● Experience of the decision maker is the primary source of wisdom (intuition).


Recognition-Primed Decision Making Model (RPD) (cont.)

● In this model, the decision maker uses past experiences to understand the situation or problem.



● Four considerations: ● Plausible goals. What is possible to

accomplish? ● Cues and causal factors. What cues to

attend to and what are their causal implications?

● Expectancies. What is likely to happen and when?

● Typical action. What responses are typical in the situation?



● Time spent on analysis of information is less than in rational decision making.

● Minimal time is spent on evaluating various solutions. ● Decision makers tend to

execute the first workable solution identified.



● 3 decision scenarios in RPD: ● In a typical situation choose traditional

solution. ● In an atypical situation seek more

information. ● In a novel situation choose the best action

based on individual experience.


What decision making model do you use in your day to day world under normal operations? Under stress or time constraint?

Is your decision making model impacted by who is involved in the decision?

Decision Making Models

?


Directions: ● Working individually, read through the first scenario

and then decide which decision making approach you would use.

● Follow instructor directions to join the other students who chose the same approach.

● Identify a spokesperson and prepare to try to persuade others to switch sides. All may switch sides as they choose.

● Repeat the activity for the second scenario.

Activity 7.1 Decision Making Approaches


SCENARIO 1: A severe storm has caused wind damage and power outages across your region over the Thanksgiving weekend. Limited public works employees are available to clear roadways and restore power lines. Citizens are offering to help clear debris but several have been injured by live wires tangled in trees. Many volunteer are simply interested in clearing roads around their neighborhoods to speed utility repair and are unlikely to stop until their power is restored. To complicate matters, the hospital has limited generator power and it will take all available personnel to clear debris and restore power to it in a timely manner. Question: What decision making model would you use to navigate the problems and decisions required in this scenario?



SCENARIO 2: Your community has been devastated by recurring floods within the main business corridor. Data suggests that the flooding in this area cannot be effectively mitigated due to environmental issues and high costs. Many businesses cannot afford to relocate, and can no longer qualify for business loans to recover from the recurring issue. The community is meeting to discuss options, including relocating the business corridor to another part of town. Some businesses are considering relocating to another community altogether, but most cannot afford to lose their investment and may go out of business with any further hardship. The town has come together for a town meeting. Business owners, citizens, local politicians, planning and department of ecology are all present. Question: As a leader in your community, how would you lead the decision making for this group?



Did you change sides in either scenario? Why or why not? More than once? Did one model work well for you across scenarios, or did you change models?

Activity 6.1 Debrief


7 Step Process for Making Ethical Decisions

1. Stop and think. 2. Clarify your goals.

3. Determine the facts

4. Develop options 5. Consider

consequences of each option.

6. Make a decision.

7. Monitor and modify decision as needed.

1. Stop and think. Take time to analyze the situation, potential options, and ethical issues involved.







6. Make a decision.


2. Clarify your goals. Clarify your goal for the situation. What do you most want to accomplish or avoid? What is most important to you, those involved, the organization?







6. Make a decision.


3. Determine the facts. Adequate information must be considered to make an intelligent, objective choice.







6. Make a decision.


4. Develop Options. Have more than one option, list the actions needed for each option, and if possible seek input from trusted sources.







6. Make a decision.


5. Consider the consequences of each option to you, to those affected, and to the organization. Avoid options that sacrifice values and principles.







6. Make a decision.


6. Make a decision. Choose the option which meets the goals and maintains ethical values and principles.







6. Make a decision.


7. Monitor and modify decision as needed. If results are not what was desired, consider steps needed to create a favorable outcome.







6. Make a decision.


Apply the process to an ethical dilemma from your experience.


Activity 6.2

Ethical Decision Making

Small Group Activity 30 minutes ● As a group, review assigned

scenario and ethical dilemma. ● Provide the information for steps 2-7

of the 7 step process. ● Select a spokesperson to present

your results to the class.


Activity 6.2 Discussion

1. Stop and think.

2. Clarify your goals.


4. Develop options

5. Consider consequences of each option.

6. Make a decision.


Scenario 1 How to deal with ADA deficient shelters in the path of category 4 hurricane. Scenario 2 How to deal with ethical questions about priorities of service following a magnitude 7.4 earthquake.


Decision Making Approaches

Four general approaches to decision making.

● Individual Decision Making.

● Decision Making through Consultation.

● Group Decision Making.

● Delegating the Decision.



* Job Aid 3-1: FEMA, Decision making and problem solving 241.a (2010)

When to use each approach?




Based on the previous job aid, consider your decision making approach in various situations.

● Individual Decision Making

● Decision Making through Consultation

● Group Decision Making

● Delegating the Decision


Analyzing the Outcome



After the decision – Now What?

● Do you have a process in place for monitoring the decision?

● Did it solve the problem?

● Has the situation changed?

● Is the problem / decision still relevant?



After the decision – Everyone Else…

• Can you explain your decision? Can you defend it?

• Do others agree

with your assessment?


Decision-Making Summary

Thoughts to take forward:

● How would you apply these concepts to your personal growth as a leader?

● If there is one important idea from this unit that you can take forward to others in your organization, what would it be?

Visual 7-1 Developing Critical Thinking Skills


Unit 7: Developing Critical Thinking Skills


A Critical Thinking Model

Review of Unit Pre-Reading Paul, Richard and Linda

Elder. (2009).The Miniature Guide To Critical Thinking Concepts and Tools, 6th Edition. Niewoehner, R.J. and

Steidle, C.E. (2009). The loss of the space shuttle Columbia: Portaging leadership lessons with a critical thinking model.


So why do we care?

Critical thinking infuses every part of our personal and professional lives:

• Can help build cooperation and consensus

• Our thoughts determine our assumptions and inferences – and then our actions

• Can decrease stress in pressured situations

• Others may depend on the effectiveness of our critical thinking skills


Unit Objectives

Upon completion of this unit, you will be able to…

● Define critical thinking

● Apply critical thinking to ask more expert questions of yourself and others

● Ask richer questions that are broader, deeper and more complex to avoid balking at obstacles

● Think with insight and integrity

● Describe how Richard Paul’s model of critical thinking (standards, elements, intellectual traits/virtues) applies to emergency management


Unit Outline

● Critical Thinking ● Standards ● Elements of Thought

● Activity 7.1 ● Personal Traits

● Activity 7.2 ● Putting it All Together

● Activity 7.3


Definition of Critical Thinking

The intellectually disciplined process of actively and skillfully

● conceptualizing ● applying ● analyzing ● synthesizing ● evaluating

information gathered from, or generated by, observation, experience, reflection, reasoning or communication as a guide to belief and action. Michael Scriven & Richard Paul (1987)


Critical Thinking

What are some examples from your experience in emergency management where you had to explain your reasoning to justify or evaluate an action?

?


Concepts of Critical Thinking

Critical Thinking should be: ● Deliberate ● Reflective ● Strategic ● Questions, not answers ● Lifelong refinement

Critical Thinking should NOT be: ● Based on Assumption ● Reactive ● Irrational ● Situational only ● Self-interested ● Uncritically accepting


When to Use Critical Thinking

● Developing an Incident Action Plan ● Preparing an Annual EM Budget ● Proposing a New EOC Design or Facility ● Organizing a Whole Community Program ● Designing an Effective Full-scale Exercise ● Making Decisions or Prioritizing during response

What are some other situations when you need to use Critical Thinking? ?


Developing Critical Thinking

● Refining critical thinking is a life-long endeavor.

● No person has perfect critical thinking.

● There will always be something that we can learn and reflect upon to improve our own critical thinking process, whether the experiences are our own, or learned from the experiences of others.


Standards

We seek to apply universal standards to our thoughts in order to increase our effectiveness as thinkers.

● Clarity ● Accuracy ● Precision ● Relevance ● Depth ● Breadth ● Logic ● Significance ● Completeness ● Fairness


Questions to Apply Standards

Clarity - Could you elaborate further? Could you give me an example? Could you illustrate what you mean? Accuracy - How could we check on that? How could we find out if that is true? How could we verify or test that? Precision - Could you be more specific? Could you give me more details? Could you be more exact?

?



Relevance - How is that connected to the question? How does that bear on the issue?

Depth - How does your answer address the complexities in the question? How are you taking into account the problems in the question? Is that dealing with the most significant factors?

Breadth - Do we need to consider another point of view? Is there another way to look at this question? What would this look like from a conservative standpoint? What would this look like from the point of view of . . .?

?



Logic - Does this really make sense? Does that follow from what you said? How does that follow? But before you implied this, and now you are saying that; how can both be true? Significance - Is this the most important problem to consider? Is this the central idea to focus on? Which of these facts are most important?

?



Completeness- Is my analysis complete? Have I omitted any critical considerations?

Fairness - Do I have a vested interest in this issue? Am I sympathetically representing the viewpoints of others?

?


Cartoon


Elements of Thought

Questions

Points of View

Information

Inferences/ Conclusions

Concepts

Implications/ Consequences

Assumptions

Purpose


Cartoon


Elements of Thought

● The conscious and unconscious items present in every thought process.

● Used to analyze situations, to interpret laws and regulations, and to establish our credibility in service to our communities..


Elements of Thought

● Purpose: What am I trying to accomplish? ● Questions: What question am I raising? What question am I

addressing? Am I considering the complexities in the question?

● Points of View: From what point of view am I looking at this issue?

Is there another point of view I should consider?


Elements of Thought

● Information: What information am I using in coming to that conclusion? What experience have I had to support this claim? What information do I need to settle the question?

● Inferences/Conclusions: How did I reach this conclusion? Is there another way

to interpret the information?

● Concepts: What is the main idea here? Can I explain this idea?


Elements of Thought

● Implications/Consequences: If someone accepted my position, what would be

the implications? What am I implying?

● Assumptions: What am I taking for granted? What assumption

has led me to that conclusion?


Elements of Thought

● Assumptions ● Histories, stories and personal experiences. ● Bias, blindspot, prejudice and taboos.

Example: Major Flooding


Activity 7.1: After-the-Flood Planning

Assignment ● Many communities have experienced damage from

flooding. Imagine your table group is asked to create new and better flood plans to prevent, prepare for, respond to, recover from or mitigate future damage.

● In your group… ● Discuss why and how critical thinking would need to

be part of the planning process. ● Discuss how each assigned Standard and Element

specifically could be applied to strengthen the planning process and the plan.

● Be prepared to share your conclusions with the class.



How does each STANDARD apply to developing the new and improved flood plan? ● Clarity

● Accuracy ● Precision ● Relevance ● Depth

● Breadth ● Logic ● Significance ● Completeness ● Fairness



How does each ELEMENT apply to developing the new and improved flood plan?

● Inferences ● Concepts ● Implications ● Assumptions

● Purposes ● Questions ● Points of View ● Information


Intellectual Traits ● Humility ● Autonomy ● Integrity ● Courage ● Perseverance ● Confidence in

Reason ● Empathy ● Fairmindedness

We seek to attain certain intellectual traits in our personal and professional lives.


Defining Intellectual Traits

● Humility - depends on recognizing that one should not claim more than one actually knows.

● Autonomy - control of one’s beliefs, values, and inferences; to learn to think for oneself, to gain command over one’s thought processes.

● Integrity - recognition of the need to be true to one’s own thinking; to practice what one advocates for others.



● Courage - come to see some truth in some ideas considered dangerous and absurd, and distortion or falsity in some ideas strongly held in our group.

● Perseverance - the need to use intellectual insights and truths in spite of difficulties, obstacles, and frustrations; firm adherence to rational principles despite the irrational opposition of others.



● Confidence in Reason - become reasonable persons, despite the deep-seated obstacles; faith that with proper encouragement and cultivation, people can learn to think for themselves.

● Empathy - imaginatively put oneself in the place of others in order to genuinely understand them.

● Fairmindedness - treat all viewpoints alike, without reference to one’s own feelings or vested interests.


Critical Thinking Before the Incident

Visual 6-31 Critical Thinking


Did You Use Critical Thinking?

● After the incident, can you support your decisions, plans, and actions?

● Can you cite the Standards and Elements you applied?

● Do you feel better prepared to respond to an after-action investigation if you used a Critical Thinking process?

Investigation of Responsibility


The Critical Thinking Process

STANDARDS

ELEMENTS

TRAITS


Putting It All Together

Problem/Question Identify Goals/Priorities Analysis/Application of Standards Identify Options/Form Opinion A B C D = Actionable Item

Transform knowledge Filter back through to confirm all of these are being met/remain relevant. Do you come to the same conclusion?


The Paul Model of Critical Thinking

● “Does the Paul model of Critical Thinking provide a beneficial vocabulary and construct for evaluating complex technological [or other] case studies?”

● “Does the structure of Paul’s model enhance the portability of the lessons?”


The Paul Model of Critical Thinking

● Warning of a dam failure ● A coastal tsunami watch ● Terrorist threat ● Active shooter on campus ● Wildfire spreading ● Toxic spill ● ?

How might the model apply to an emergency management challenge?

?


The Health of Our Own Thinking

“A bright, hard-working, dedicated team proved dysfunctional because their organizational culture did not demand that they consciously monitor the health of their own thinking. We may also be leading a bright, hard-working, dedicated, dysfunctional team if we’ve not purposefully taught them how to monitor the health of their thinking.” Niewoehner, R.J. and Steidle, C.E. (2009). Paragraph 15.


Review the Traits

● Humility ● Autonomy ● Integrity ● Courage ● Perseverance ● Confidence in Reason ● Empathy ● Fairmindedness

TRAITS


Activity 7.2: Impact of Traits

Assignment ● Working individually, describe on your worksheet

● an experience you had where you witnessed the POSITIVE contribution of one of the traits to a team on which you served.

● an experience where you experienced how a DEFICIT in one trait ADVERSELY affected the work of a team.

● Be prepared to share your experiences with the class.


Space Shuttle Columbia

● The lack of effective critical thinking resulted in the preventable loss of the Columbia and crew.

● This illustrates the important ideas and concepts of this unit.

● Evaluate the critical thinking displayed as you view the next segment.


Space Shuttle Columbia

Space Shuttle Columbia Video 1


Suitability

● Applies largely to our written and oral communications, seeking to be “fitting”, “appropriate”, or “suited to the purpose.”

● Entails selecting the right tone and presentation for the audience.

● It is seldom easy to craft our speech or writing to squarely address the interests, knowledge, and abilities of our audience/readers.


Activity 7.3 Applied Critical Thinking Assignment ● In your table groups, discuss the video and review the

pre-reading analysis by Captain Niewoehner and Rear Admiral Steidle.

● Decide in your group what you feel are the most important deficiencies in critical thinking that were displayed in the Columbia tragedy. Decide which improvements in critical thinking would have improved the outcome. Frame your critique and recommendations in terms of the elements, standards, and traits involved.

● Identify a spokesperson and be prepared to share your findings with the class.


Space Shuttle Columbia Follow-up

Space Shuttle Columbia Video 2


Activity 7.3 Debrief: Steps in the Case Study

● Discovery and Initial Analysis ● A Flawed Analysis ● Management’s Low Level of Concern ● A Lack of Clear Communication ● A Lack of Effective Leadership ● The Failure of Safety’s Role ● Missed opportunities, blocked or ineffective

communications channels, flawed analysis, and ineffective leadership.


Unit Summary

Is it our duty to critically analyze these possibilities?

● missed opportunities, ● blocked or ineffective communications

channels, ● flawed analysis, and ● ineffective leadership.

Visual 8-1 Project Work: Developing Your Personal Project Plan


Unit 8: Project Work: Developing Your Personal Project Plan


Unit Objectives

Upon completion of this unit, you will be able to

● Develop a purpose statement for addressing the problem selected for the action project.


Purpose Statement

● Clearly indicates why you are doing your action project and what you want to accomplish.

● Conveys the overall intent. ● Does NOT explain the problem. ● Summarizes intent, goal and objectives of

the action project.


Example of Purpose Statement

● The purpose of my action project is to implement a policy which requires minimum training for volunteers who work in our organization on a regular basis. The implementation of this policy will result in a reduction in the amount of errors which occur in the processing of reports and a shorter process time for records during an operation.


Activity 8.1

Individual Activity – 20 minutes Purpose Statement ● Working individually, draft a purpose statement for

the problem or issue you selected for your action project.

● Ask a member of your accountability team to provide feedback.

● Submit your purpose statement to the instructor for grading and feedback.


Activity 8.1 Summary

● The purpose statement describes the intent of the action project and the desired outcome.

● The statement must be concise and be able to be understood by others.

● When drafting the purpose statement, feedback from other team members helps to ensure it effectively communicates intent and desired outcome.

Documents

Unit 5: Project Work: Selecting a Problem