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Tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it
The “I knew it all along” phenomenon
Answer the following questions in complete sentences. You will be adding more to this later.1. Give an example of hindsight bias from your
own life.2. Give an example of overconfidence from your
own life.
E = AriesB = TaurusC = GeminiA = CancerF = LeoD = Virgo
K = LibraH = Scorpio I = SagittariusL = Capricorn J = AquariusG = Pisces
Case study - studies one person in depth in hopes of revealing universal principles
Survey - uses a representative sample of people to estimate attitudes or reported behaviors of a whole population ◦ Population - all the cases in a group being
studied from which samples may be drawn◦ Random sample - every member of a population
has an equal chance of inclusion
3. Give an example of a study when researchers might use a case study.
4. Give an example of an experiment when researchers might use a survey. How could they ensure a random sampling of the population?
Measures how closely two things vary together and thus how well either one predicts the other
Graphed on a scatterplot and measured with a correlation coefficient◦ Positive = two sets of scores rise or fall together◦ Negative = two sets of scores relate inversely◦ zero = weak correlation
CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION
5. Give an example from your life of an illusory correlation.
6. What can you conclude from this statement: Eating saturated fat and the likelihood of contracting cancer are positively correlated.
Random assignment - assigning participants to experimental and control groups by chance
Double blind procedure - neither the research participants nor the research staff know whether participants have received the treatment or a placebo
Placebo effect - experimental results caused by expectations alone
Experimental group - group exposed to treatment
Control group - group not exposed to treatment
Independent variable (IV) - experimental factor that is manipulated
Confounding variable - factor other than the IV that might produce an effect in an experiment
Dependent variable - outcome factor; variable that may change in response to manipulations of the IV
Statistical significance - observed difference is likely not due to chance variation between the samples
7. Develop a hypothesis and an experiment to test the hypothesis. Indicate the experimental and control groups, and independent, dependent and confounding variables.
8. Someone participating in a study on the effects of alcohol on perception is told by the experimenter that he has been assigned to the high dose group. What is the problem with this?
Nature vs. nurture Hindsight bias Overconfidence Hypothesis Research methods –
What is it? When is it used? Benefits and limitations?◦ Case study◦ Survey◦ Natural observation
Ethics in research
Correlational studies◦ Positive correlation◦ Negative correlation◦ Correlation coefficient◦ Relationship between
correlation and causation Experiments
◦ Independent variable◦ Dependent variable◦ Control group◦ Experimental group◦ Random sample◦ Population◦ Placebos