UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL PROJECTIONS September 23, 2009 Frederick R. Ignatovich, Professor Emeritus Michigan State University

UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL PROJECTIONS

September 23, 2009

Frederick R. Ignatovich, Professor Emeritus

Michigan State University

September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH 2

Listen To Advice And Accept Instruction, That You May Gain Wisdom For The Future.

(Proverbs 19:20)

A Context for Regional and Local Events

National Trends

Michigan Trends

THE NATIONAL PICTURE

BIRTHS

ENROLLMENTS / PROJECTIONS

5September 2009 - F. IGNATOVICH

UNITED STATES RESIDENT BIRTHS1955 TO 2008

3000000

31000003200000

3300000

3400000

35000003600000

3700000

38000003900000

4000000

4100000

42000004300000

4400000

1955 56 57 58 59

1960 61 62 63 64

1965 66 67 68 69

1970 71 72 73 74

1975 76 77 78 79

1980 81 82 83 84

1985 86 87 88 89

1990 91 92 93 94

1995 96 97 98 99

2000 01 02 03 04 05 06

07 P

08 E

YEAR

NU

MB

ER


The National Birth Profile• The post war baby boom peaked in 1961

(4.27 million)

• The baby bust started in 1962 and continued through 1976 (3.17 million)

• The echo boom started in 1977 and peaked in 1990 (4.16 million)

• Since 1990 births first declined (3.88 million in 1997) and then generally increased (to 4.25 million in 2008)

Source: National Center for Health Statistics


UNITED STATES PUBLIC GRADES K-12

40414243444546474849505152535492

-93

93-9

494

-95

95-9

696

-97

97-9

898

-99

99-0

000

-01

01-0

202

-03

03-0

404

-05

05-0

606

-07

07-0

808

-09

09-1

010

-11

11-1

212

-13

13-1

414

-15

15-1

616

-17

17-1

8

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

ACTUAL

PROJECTED


The National Picture – K-12

• Enrollments have annually risen since the 1992-93 school year with a slight slowdown in the rate of increase in recent years

• K-12 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately rise over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) increasing approximately 1.824 million or 3.8% (less than 1% per year)

Source: National Center for Education Statistics


UNITED STATES PUBLICGRADES K-5

1919.5

2020.5

2121.5

2222.5

2323.5

2424.5

2525.5

26

92-9

393

-94

94-9

595

-96

96-9

797

-98

98-9

999

-00

00-0

101

-02

02-0

303

-04

04-0

505

-06

06-0

707

-08

08-0

909

-10

10-1

111

-12

12-1

313

-14

14-1

515

-16

16-1

717

-18

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

ACTUAL

PROJECTED


The National Picture – K-5

• Echo boom enrollments peaks in 2000-2001 (21.75 million).

• Slow modest decline from 2000-2001 until 2003-04.

• Gradual increase from 2003-04 to 2008-09 (From 21.575 to 22.571 million).

• K-5 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately rise over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) increasing approximately 1.275 million or 5.6% (slightly greater than 1% per year).



UNITED STATES PUBLICGRADES 6-8

9

9.5

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

92-9

393

-94

94-9

595

-96

96-9

797

-98

98-9

999

-00

00-0

101

-02

02-0

303

-04

04-0

505

-06

06-0

707

-08

08-0

909

-10

10-1

111

-12

12-1

313

-14

14-1

515

-16

16-1

717

-18

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

ACTUAL

PROJECTED


The National Picture – 6-8

• Enrollments increased from 1992-93 to 2003-04 a 17.4% gain over 12 years (from 9.731 to 11.422 million).

• Slow modest decline from 2003-2004 until 2008-09 a -3.3% loss over 5 years (from 11.422 to 11.048 million).

• 6-8 Public school enrollments will continue to moderately and consistently rise over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) increasing approximately .735 million or 6.7% (approximately 1.33% per year).



UNITED STATES PUBLICGRADES 9-12

10

10.5

11

11.5

12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

92-9

393

-94

94-9

595

-96

96-9

797

-98

98-9

999

-00

00-0

101

-02

02-0

303

-04

04-0

505

-06

06-0

707

-08

08-0

909

-10

10-1

111

-12

12-1

313

-14

14-1

515

-16

16-1

717

-18

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

ACTUAL

PROJECTED


The National Picture – 9-12

• Enrollments increased from 1992-93 to 2007-08 a 30.2% gain over 16 years (from 11.466 to 14.933 million).

• A modest decline was expected from 2007-2008 to 2008-09 a -0.9% loss (from 14.933 to 14.802 million).

• 9-12 Public school enrollments will continue to slightly and consistently fall over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) decreasing approximately .186 million or -1.3% (approximately -0.25% per year).


UNITED STATES PUBLICSENIOR CLASS

2

2.25

2.5

2.75

3

3.25

3.5

3.75

492

-93

93-9

494

-95

95-9

696

-97

97-9

898

-99

99-0

000

-01

01-0

202

-03

03-0

404

-05

05-0

606

-07

07-0

808

-09

09-1

010

-11

11-1

212

-13

13-1

414

-15

15-1

616

-17

17-1

8

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

IN

MIL

LIO

NS

ACTUAL

PROJECTED


The National Picture – Senior Class• Senior Class enrollments increased .903 million students

from 1992-93 to 2007-08 (from 2.431 to 3.334 or +37.1% over 15 years)

• From 2007-08 to 2008-09 a decline to 3.318 students was expected (a loss of .016 million students or -0.5%)

• Senior Class Public school enrollments will continue to modestly and consistently fall over the next five years (from 2008-09 until 2013-14) decreasing approximately .120 million or -3.6% (less than 1.0% per year).


THE STATE PICTURE

BIRTHS

ENROLLMENTS / PROJECTIONS


MICHIGAN RESIDENT BIRTHS1955 TO 2008

120000125000130000135000140000145000150000155000160000165000170000175000180000185000190000195000200000205000210000215000

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

YEAR

NU

MB

ER


The Michigan Birth Profile

• The post war baby boom peaked in 1957 (208,488).

• The baby bust started in 1958 and continued until 1976 (131,378).

(Continued on Next Slide)


The Michigan Birth Profile

• The echo boom started in 1977 but was attenuated due to an economic downturn in the early 80’s. The echo boom ended in 1990 with 153,080 births.

• Since 1990 births have slowly declined to a new low in 2008 at 124,635 (provisional data).

Source: Michigan Department of Community Health


MICHIGAN PUBLIC HEAD COUNTENROLLMENTS AND PROJECTIONS

GRADES K-12

1440000

1465000

1490000

1515000

1540000

1565000

1590000

1615000

1640000

1665000

1690000

1715000

174000094

-95

95-9

696

-97

97-9

898

-99

99-0

000

-01

01-0

202

-03

03-0

404

-05

05-0

606

-07

07-0

808

-09

09-1

010

-11

11-1

212

-13

13-1

4

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

ACTUAL

HIGH

MOST LIKELY

LOW


The Michigan Picture – K-12• Generally a moderate enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 2003-04

(increasing from 1,548,817 to 1,690,990 students or +9.2% over nine years) then five years of moderate decline to 2008-09 (from 1,690,990 to 1,612,425 or -4.6%)

• The Most Likely Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 1,612,425 to 1,489,131 (approximately a 123,000 student loss or -7.6% over five years)

• The Low Projection indicates a very substantial consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 1,612,425 in the Fall of 2008 to 1,449,840 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 163,000 or -10.1% over five years)

• The High Projection indicates a consistent moderate loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 1,612,425 in the Fall of 2008 to 1,529,482 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 83,000 or -5.1% over five years)

• Given current and anticipated economic conditions we believe enrollments will fall between the most likely and low for the short term (next year or two) and at the most likely for the long term (three to five years)

Source: F. Ignatovich, Professor MSU



GRADES K-5

650000660000670000680000690000700000710000720000730000740000750000760000770000780000790000800000

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

ACTUAL

HIGH

MOST LIKELY

LOW


The Michigan Picture – K-5• Generally a moderate enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 1998-99

(increasing from 752,215 to 796,202 students or +5.8% over four years) then ten years of moderate decline to 2008-09 (from 796,202 to 712,200 or -10.6%)

• The Most Likely Projection indicates a moderate and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 712,200 to 669,019 (approximately a 43,000 student loss or -6.1% over five years)

• The Low Projection indicates a substantial consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 712,200 in the Fall of 2008 to 651,578 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 61,000 or -8.5% over five years)

• The High Projection indicates a consistent modest loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 712,200 in the Fall of 2008 to 686,698 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 26,000 or -3.6% over five years)





GRADES 6-8

305000315000

325000335000

345000355000365000

375000385000

395000405000415000

425000

94-9

595

-96

96-9

797

-98

98-9

999

-00

00-0

101

-02

02-0

303

-04

04-0

505

-06

06-0

707

-08

08-0

909

-10

10-1

111

-12

12-1

313

-14

14-1

515

-16

16-1

717

-18

18-1

919

-20

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

ACTUAL

HIGH

MOST LIKELY

LOW


The Michigan Picture – 6-8• Generally a modest enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 2003-04

(increasing from 356,991 to 415,455 students or +16.4% over nine years) then five years of substantial decline to 2008-09 (from 415,455 to 364,773 or -12.2%)

• The Most Likely Projection indicates a moderate and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 364,773 to 344,547 (approximately a 20,000 student loss or -5.5% over five years)

• The Low Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 364,773 in the Fall of 2008 to 340,629 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 24,000 or -6.6% over five years)

• The High Projection indicates a consistent moderate loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 364,773 in the Fall of 2008 to 348,599 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 16,000 or -4.4% over five years)





GRADES 9-12

390000400000410000420000430000440000450000460000470000480000490000500000510000520000530000540000550000560000

94-9

595

-96

96-9

797

-98

98-9

999

-00

00-0

101

-02

02-0

303

-04

04-0

505

-06

06-0

707

-08

08-0

909

-10

10-1

111

-12

12-1

313

-14

14-1

515

-16

16-1

717

-18

18-1

919

-20

20-2

121

-22

22-2

3SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

ACTUAL

HIGH

MOST LIKELY

LOW


The Michigan Picture – 9-12• Generally a very substantial enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 2007-08

(increasing from 439,611 to 549,290 students or +24.9% over thirteen years) then a one year substantial decline to 2008-09 (from 549,290 to 535,452 or -2.5%)

• The Most Likely Projection indicates a substantial and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 535,452 to 475,565 (approximately a 60,000 student loss or -11.2% over five years)

• The Low Projection indicates a very substantial and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 535,452 in the Fall of 2008 to 457,633 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 78,000 or -14.5% over five years)

• The High Projection indicates a consistent substantial loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 535,452 in the Fall of 2008 to 494,185 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 41,000 or -7.7% over five years)





SENIOR CLASS

85000

90000

95000

100000

105000

110000

115000

120000

125000

130000

94-9

595

-96

96-9

797

-98

98-9

999

-00

00-0

101

-02

02-0

303

-04

04-0

505

-06

06-0

707

-08

08-0

909

-10

10-1

111

-12

12-1

313

-14

14-1

515

-16

16-1

717

-18

18-1

919

-20

20-2

121

-22

22-2

323

-24

24-2

525

-26

SCHOOL YEAR

NU

MB

ER

ACTUAL

HIGH

MOST LIKELY

LOW


The Michigan Picture – Senior Class

• Generally a very substantial and consistent enrollment increase occurred from 1994-95 to 2008-09 (increasing from 91,704 to 126,352 students or +37.8% over fourteen years)

• The Most Likely Projection indicates a very substantial and consistent decline from 2008-09 to 2013-14 from 126,352 to 108,745 (approximately a 18,000 student loss or -13.9% over five years)

• The Low Projection indicates a very large and consistent decrease in enrollment over the next five years given a weak and unstable economy in the State of Michigan from 126,352 in the Fall of 2008 to 102,079 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 24,000 or -19.2% over five years)

• The High Projection indicates a consistent and substantial loss in enrollment over the next five years given a strong and expanding economy in the State of Michigan from 126,352 in the Fall of 2008 to 115,735 in the Fall of 2013 (a loss of approximately 11,000 or -8.4% over five years)



SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONSUNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN

PUBLIC SCHOOLS

FROM 2008-09 TO 2013-14 GRADE LEVEL UNITED STATES

PUBLIC – MOST LIKELY

MICHIGAN PUBLIC – HIGH

MICHIGAN PUBLIC– MOST LIKELY

MICHIGAN PUBLIC– LOW

K-12 +3.8% -5.1% -7.6% -10.1%

K-5 +5.6% -3.6% -6.1% -8.5%

6-8 +6.7% -4.4% -5.5% -6.6%

9-12 -1.3% -7.7% -11.2% -14.5%

SENIOR CLASS

-3.6% -8.4% -13.9% -19.2%


A Thought From Socrates

“The unexamined life is not worth living.”

Source: Socrates in Plato, Dialogues, Apology

Greek philosopher in Athens (469 BC – 399 BC)


What Is The Picture In Your Part Of The Forest?

Documents

UNITED STATES AND MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL PROJECTIONS September 23, 2009 Frederick R. Ignatovich, Professor Emeritus Michigan State University