35
12:00 P.M. United States Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Statistics Service Prospective Plantings Grain Stocks Rice Stocks Executive Summary Lance Honig, Chief Crops Branch March 31, 2016

United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

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Page 1: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

12:00 P.M.

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

Prospective Plantings

Grain Stocks

Rice Stocks

Executive Summary

Lance Honig, Chief

Crops Branch

March 31, 2016

Page 2: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Field Crops Stocks

Principal Crops Planted Acres Corn

Feed Grain Acres Soybeans

Food Grain Acres Sorghum

Oilseed Acres All Wheat

Other Crop Acres Barley

Oats

Rough Rice

Contents

Page 3: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

March Ag Survey Off-Farm Grain

Stock Survey

Survey Type Farmer Reported Reported

Collection Method Mail, Phone, Internet,

Personal Interview

Mail, Phone, Internet,

Personal Interview

Crops Included Acreage Intentions,

On-Farm Stocks

Grains and Oilseed

On Hand

States All except AK and HI All except AK, HI, and

NV

Sample Size 83,374 ~ 8,600 Facilities

Collection Period Feb 22– Mar 17 Feb 22 – Mar 17

Survey Overview

Page 4: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Percent

Acreage Intentions vs. Actual Planted AcresUsual Planting Progress

Corn Soybeans

March Survey

June Survey

4 weeks

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 5: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

Year Principal Crops Change From

Previous Year

Million Acres

2007 320.4 +4.7

2008 325.6 +5.3

2009 319.0 -6.6

2010 315.4 -3.6

2011 314.3 -1.1

2012 324.3 +10.0

2013 324.9 +0.6

2014 326.4 +1.6

2015 318.5 -7.9

2016 317.3 -1.2

Principal Crops Planted Acreage United States

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 6: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

317

290

295

300

305

310

315

320

325

330

335

340

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million AcresPrincipal Crops

United States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 7: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 8: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 9: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

W Wheat, -3,245

S Wheat, -1,899

Sorghum, -1,243

Barley, -418

Soybeans, -414

Oats, -337

Dry Beans, -205

Sunflowers, -166

Peanuts, -149

Hay, -132

Potatoes, -70

Canola, -30

Tobacco, -12

Sugarbeets, -0.2

D Wheat, 59

Rice, 450

Cotton, 982

Corn, 5,602

Change in Planted Acres (000) 2016 Compared With 2015

Harvested Acres for Hay & Tobacco

2016 Estimates Not Available for Proso Millet, Rye, & Sugarcane.

Page 10: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

93.6

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million AcresCorn AcresUnited States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 11: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 12: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

82.2

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million AcresSoybean Acres

United States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 13: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 14: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 15: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

9.56

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million AcresAll Cotton Acres

United States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

NASS Estimate

Low Of Expectations

Average Of Expectations

High Of Expectations

Page 16: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 17: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

36.2

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres

United States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 18: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 19: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

11.3

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million AcresOther Spring Wheat Acres

United States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 20: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 21: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

2.00

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Million AcresDurum Wheat Acres

United States

Planted HarvestedUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 22: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 23: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

% Change % Change

From From

March Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season

Feed Grains

Corn Mil Ac 93.6 NA +6.4

Sorghum Mil Ac 7.22 NA -14.7

Oats Mil Ac 2.75 NA -10.9

Barley Mil Ac 3.14 NA -11.7

Crop Unit

March 2016 Prospective Plantings

Page 24: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

% Change % Change

From From

March Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season

Food Grains

Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3

Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1 -8.2

Wheat, Spring Mil Ac 11.3 NA -14.3

Wheat, Durum Mil Ac 2.00 NA +3.0

Rice Mil Ac 3.06 NA +17.2

Crop Unit

March 2016 Prospective Plantings

Page 25: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

% Change % Change

From From

March Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season

Oilseeds

Soybeans Mil Ac 82.2 NA -0.5

Peanuts Mil Ac 1.48 NA -9.2

Sunflower Mil Ac 1.69 NA -8.9

Canola Mil Ac 1.75 NA -1.7

Flaxseed Thou Ac 390 NA -15.8

All Cotton Mil Ac 9.56 NA +11.4

Crop Unit

March 2016 Prospective Plantings

Page 26: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

March 2016 Prospective Plantings

% Change % Change

From From

March Previous Previous

2016 Forecast Season

Other Crops

All Hay Mil Ac 54.3 NA -0.2

Sugarbeets Mil Ac 1.16 NA -<0.1

Tobacco Thou Ac 314 NA -3.7

Spring Potatoes Thou Ac 55.0 NA -21.5

Dry Edible Beans Mil Ac 1.56 NA -11.6

Chickpeas Thou Ac 246 NA +18.6

Lentils Thou Ac 850 NA +72.4

Dry Edible Peas Mil Ac 1.42 NA +24.5

A. Winter Peas Thou Ac 31.0 NA -8.8

Sweet Potatoes Thou Ac 169 NA +8.0

Crop Unit

Page 27: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

% Change % Change

From From

March Previous Previous

2016 Estimate Year

Stocks

Corn Bil Bu 7.81 NA +0.8

Soybeans Bil Bu 1.53 NA +15.4

Sorghum Mil Bu 201 NA +67.5

Rice Mil Cwt 108 NA -4.1

Crop Unit

March 2016 Grain Stocks

Page 28: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

% Change % Change

From From

March Previous Previous

2016 Estimate Year

Stocks

Wheat, All Bil Bu 1.37 NA +20.3

Barley Mil Bu 137 NA +16.0

Oats Mil Bu 75.3 NA +26.7

Crop Unit

March 2016 Grain Stocks

Page 29: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

12.5

14.3

13.7

14.7

14.1

13.4

11.7

14.7

15.4 15.3

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16

Billion BushelsCorn Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun SepUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 30: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

3.65

3.253.17

3.50 3.48

3.313.21

3.50

4.024.12

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16

Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun SepUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 31: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

2.38

2.51

2.822.87

3.14

2.86

2.99

2.85

2.62

2.80

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16

Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks

United States

Supply Sep Dec Mar JunUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 32: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

232 233228

245

262

211

235

220

249

235

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16

Million HundredweightRough Rice Stocks

United States

Supply Dec Mar Jun AugUSDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 33: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Page 34: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

USDA-NASS

3-31-16

Release Date Report Title

April 1

CAIR: Cotton System

CAIR: Fats & Oils

CAIR: Grain Crushings

April 12 Crop Production

April 22 Cattle on Feed

April 29 Agricultural Prices

May 2

CAIR: Cotton System

CAIR: Fats & Oil

CAIR: Flour Milling

CAIR: Flour Milling- Annual

CAIR: Grain Crushings

Upcoming Reports

Page 35: United States Department of Agriculture National ...€¦ · March Previous Previous 2016 Forecast Season Food Grains Wheat, All Mil Ac 49.6 NA -9.3 Wheat, Winter Mil Ac 36.2 -1.1

United States Department of Agriculture

National Agricultural Statistics Service

All Reports Available At www.nass.usda.gov

For Questions 202-720-2127

800-727-9540

[email protected]