UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS ... · All oil from the central and southern Inner Banks (areas P10-P15, P71-P75) will be piped to a central platform and then tankered

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS MANAGEMENT SERVICE

AN OILSPILL RISK ANALYSISFOR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

LEASE OFFERING (February 1984)

by Robert P. LaBelle, Kenneth J. Lanfear, A. Doreen Banks, and Robert M. Karpas

Minerals Management Service Environmental Modeling Group

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OPEN-FILE REPORT #83-563

July 1983

Contents

Page

Introduction 1

Summary of the proposed action 2

Environmental resources 3

Estimated quantity of oil resources 5

Probability of oilspills occurring 5

Oilspill trajectory simulations 7

Combined analysis of oilspill occurrence andoilspill trajectory simulations 9

Conclusions 11

References cited 13

List of Illustrations 15

List of Tables 24

Appendix A 79

Appendix B 86

Appendix C 111

Introduction

The Federal Government has proposed to offer Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands off the Southern California coast for oil and gas leasing. This report examines what could happen if leases are issued and oil is found, and attempts to compare relative risks of future leasing with risks of existing leases and transportation of imported oil in the study area.

Oilspills are a major concern associated with offshore oil production. An important fact that stands out when one attempts to evaluate the significance of possible accidental oilspills is that the problem is fundamentally probabilistic. Uncertainty exists about the amount of oil that will be produced from the leases and the number and size of spills that might occur during the life of production, as well as the wind and current conditions that would exist at the time of a spill occurrence giving movement and direction to the oil slick. Although some of the uncertainty reflects incomplete and imperfect data, considerable uncertainty is simply inherent in the problem of describing future events over which complete control cannot be exercised. Since it cannot be predicted with certainty that a probabilistic event such as an oilspill will occur, only the likelihood of occurrence can be quantified. The range of possible effects that may accompany a decision related to oil and gas production must be considered. In attempting to maintain perspective on the problem, one must associate each potential effect with a quantitative estimate of its probability of occurrence.

This report summarizes results of an oilspill-risk analysis conducted for the proposed Southern California Lease Offering (February 1984) . The study had the objective of determining relative risks associated with oil and gas production in different regions of the proposed lease area. The study was undertaken for consideration in the draft Environmental Impact Statement (EIS), which is prepared for the area by the Minerals Management Service (MMS), and to aid in the final selection of tracts to be offered for sale. A description of the oilspill trajectory analysis model used in this analysis can be found in previous papers (Lanfear and others, 1979; Smith and others,1982; Lanfear and Samuels, 1981). The analysis was conducted in three parts corresponding to different aspects of the overall problem. The first part dealt with the probability of oilspill occurrence, and the second dealt with the trajectories of oilspills from potential launch points to various targets'. Results of the first two parts of the analysis were then combined to give estimates of the overall oilspill risk associated with oil and gas production in the lease area.

Summary of the Proposed Action

The proposed action is to offer for lease tracts on the Outer Continental Shelf off the Southern California coast. The study area for this analysis includes all of these tracts and extends from latitude 27.7 degrees N. to 38.3 degrees N., and from longitude 114 degrees W. to 126 degrees W. (figure 1). The study area also includes existing Federal and State leases in the Southern California Bight and Federal leases in the Santa Maria Basin.

For purposes of this analysis, the leasing area was divided into the 76 proposed leasing areas shown numbered in figure 2. The 27 existing Federal lease tract groups in the study area are shown in figure 3, and 8 existing State lease areas are shown in figure 4.

If oil is discovered and the area is developed for production, there are a number of ways in which oil may be transported to shore. Proposed and existing transportation routes are shown in figures 5 and 5a. The following hypothetical transportation scheme is proposed for the purpose of impact assessment:

Anticipated Transportation Routes - The transportation net works described here are MMS estimates of what may occur from the development of resources found as a result of the proposed lease offering. There are two levels of resource estimates upon which the analyses were based, the "most likely" and "conditional mean", and subsequently there are two transportation scenarios.

It must be noted that the transportation schemes are "best guesses" of what may happen. They do not represent MMS recommendations for any sites, routes, or number of platforms. The schemes are based upon the best available information and consider the proposals anticipated from the oil industry, as well as municipal and county requirements. In the final analysis, many factors that are presently unknown or little known, must be considered. These factors include, in addition to environmental, State, and local concerns, the questions: Will oil actually be discovered? How much oil will be found? Where will it be found? What ' will be the nature (chemical properties) of the discovered oil (dictating where it can be refined and how transported)? What will be the cost of oil on the world market at the time of discovery (determining how much, if any, is economically recoverable)? What will be the relative transportation costs of oil at the time of discovery, production, and during the life of the newly discovered fields? And how will industry technology and economics change during the life of the fields? These are important questions that cannot be presently answered, but will ultimately determine the extent of development and the specific transportation schemes used.

If the amount of oil estimated for the most likely case is found and developed, it is anticipated that the oil from the western and central Santa Barbara Channel (proposed lease areas P1-P4) will come ashore via pipeline at Las Flores Canyon. At Las Flores Canyon, 75% of the oil will be moved by onshore pipelines to Los Angeles Basin refineries, and 25% will be tankered out of the study area to the Gulf of Mexico. Oil from the eastern channel (areas P5-P6) will come ashore by pipline to Carpenteria, and then be moved by onshore pipeline to Los Angeles Basin refineries. The oil from the northern Inner Banks (areas P7-9, P69, P70) will go ashore by pipeline to EL Segundo, where it will be transported by onshore pipelines to Los Angeles Basin refineries. The oil from the central and southern Inner Banks (areas P10-15, P71-75) will be brought ashore by tanker to Los Angeles/Long Beach Port, where it will be piped to Los Angeles Basin refineries. The oil from the Outer Banks and Basins (areas P16-68, P76) will be tankered ashore to Los Angeles/Long Beach Port, and then piped to Los Angeles Basin refineries.

If the amount of oil estimated for the conditional mean case (representing the total development of the lease offering area) is found and developed, it is anticiated that the oil from the western Santa Barbara Channel (areas P1-P4) will be piped ashore to Las Flores Canyon. Seventy-five percent of this oil will then be transported to Los Angeles Basin refineries by onshore pipeline, the remaining 25% will be tankered out of the study area to Gulf of Mexico refineries. The oil from the central channel (area P5) will be piped to Carpenteria and then moved by onshore pipeline to Los Angeles Basin refineries. The oil from the eastern channel (area P6) will be piped ashore near Oxnard and then carried by onshore pipline to Los Angeles Basin refineries. Oil from the northern Inner Banks (areas P7-P9, P69, P70) will be moved by pipeline, coming ashore near El Segundo and then piped by onshore pipeline to Los Angeles Basin refineries. All oil from the central and southern Inner Banks (areas P10-P15, P71-P75) will be piped to a central platform and then tankered ashore to Los Angeles/Long Beach Port, where it will then be transported by onshore pipelines to Los Angeles Basin refineries. The oil from the Outer Banks and Basins (areas P16-68, P76) will be transported by pipelines and tankers to Los Angeles/Long Beach Port and then transported via onshore pipelines to Los Angeles Basin refineries.

The transportation routes shown in figures 5 and 5a are also used to move oil from existing leases to shore, and for importing crude oil to San Francisco and Los Angeles refineries.

Environmental Resources

The locations of 31 categories of environmental resources (or targets, as they are designated in this paper) were digitized in the same coordinate system, or base map, as that used in trajectory simulations. Targets were selected by MMS analysts in the Pacific OCS Region Office, who prepare the EIS. Maps showing

the digitized targets are shown in appendix A, figures A-l to A- 6. The monthly sensitivities of these targets were also recorded so that, for example, a target such as migrating birds could be contacted by simulated oilspills only when the birds would be in the area. All targets are considered to be vulnerable year round unless otherwise indicated and are listed below:

Northern Channel Islands Marine Sanctuary (northern Islands)Southern Channel Islands Marine Sanctuary (Santa Barbara)Channel Islands Marine Sanctuary (combined)Sea Otter Range (north)Sea Otter Range (south)Sea Otter Range (combined)Santa Monica BaySan Nicolas IslandBegg RockNorthern Anacapa Island (vulnerable March through August)San Miguel IslandLeast Tern Colonies (combined) (vulnerable February through June)Least Tern Colony _#1 (vulnerable February through June)Least Tern Colony v2 (vulnerable February through June)Least Tern Colony #3 (vulnerable February through June)Least Tern Colony #4 (vulnerable February through June)Northern Offshore Feeding AreaSouthern Offshore Feeding AreaAnacapa IslandSanta Barbara IslandCoronados IslandsGuadalupe IslandFarallon IslandsBaja IslandsCoastal Feeding Area #1Coastal Feeding Area #2Coastal Feeding Area #3Coastal Feeding Area #4Coastal Feeding Area #5Coastal Feeding Area #6Coastal Feeding Area #7

Because the trajectory model simulates an oilspill as a point, most targets have been given an areal extent slightly greater than they actually occupy. For example, some shoreline targets extend a short distance offshore; this allows the model to simulate a spill that approaches land, makes contact, with the target withdraws, and continues on its way.

To provide a more detailed analysis for land or land-based targets, the model includes a feature that allows subdividing the coastline into land segments. Figure 6 shows the coastline divided into 57 segments of approximately equal lengths.

Estimated Quantity of Oil Resources

Benefits and r_isks (as well as many environmental impacts) are functions of the volume of oil and are not independent of each other. Greater risks are associated with greater volumes of oil and greater economic benefits. If benefits are evaluated by assuming production of a specific amount of oil, then the corresponding risks should be stated in a conditional form such as, "the risks are ..., given that the volume is ...". If benefits are evaluated for a number of discrete volumes, then risks should likewise be calculated for the same volumes. Any statements about the likelihood of the presence of a particular volume of oil apply equally well to the likelihood of the corresponding benefits and risks.

The estimated oil resources used for oilspill risk calculations in this report correspond to those used by MMS in preparing the draft EIS for the lease offering. If oil is present in the proposal area, a conditional mean resource of 1.13 billion barrels is estimated (Bird, 1983). This volume is an estimate of the total undiscovered recoverable oil, given that hydrocarbons are indeed present, and excluding State waters, previously leased tracts, and other areas excluded from the proposal. The "most likely" volume estimate used in this analysis is the percentage of the conditional mean expected to be leased and developed as a result of the proposed lease offering. This estimate is 0.27 billion barrels. We cannot overemphasize that these estimates are based on the assumption that oil is present. If it is not present (then, obviously), no oilspill risks exist from the proposed lease offering. The remainder of this analysis is designed to answer the question, "What are the risks if oil is found?"

The conditional mean resource estimates for existing leased tracts are 2.3 billion barrels for Federal leases (Bird, 1983) and 690 million barrels for State leases (Dedrick, 1983).

In addition to the crude oil estimated to be produced over the 25-year expected life of the proposed leases, MMS estimates that 5.3 billion barrels of crude oil will be imported into the region by tankers from outside sources (including 4.4 billion barrels from Alaska).

Probability of Oilspills Occurring

The probability of oilspills occurring (given that oil is present) is based on the assumption that spills occur independently of each other as a Poisson process and with a rate derived from past OCS experience and dependent upon the volume of oil produced and transported. All types of accidental spills of 1,000 barrels or larger were considered in this analysis, including not only well blowouts, but also other accidents on platforms, transportation of oil to shore, and, in some cases, further transportation from an intermediate terminus to

refineries. These types of accidents were classified as either platform, pipeline, or tanker spills. By including all of these risks, the risks, of the proposal can be compared to those of the other alternatives.

Lanfear and Amstutz (1983) examined oilspill occurrence rates applicable to the U.S. OCS. Basing their results upon new, more recent, and more complete data bases than were available for earlier OSTA models, they recommended updated spill rates for pipeline spills and some significant changes in the spill rates for platforms and tankers. This analysis uses the new spill rates for all accident categories.

Spill rates for OCS platforms are based on the record for the U.S. OCS (Gulf of Mexico, and California) from 1964 through 1980, in which 5 spills of 10,000 barrels or larger are noted, along with 7 spills of 1,000 to 10,000 barrels in size. Nakassis (1982) conducted a statistical analysis of the record, 1964-1979, and concluded that the platform spill rate did not remain constant since 1964, but had decreased significantly. Using this trend analysis and updating for the 1980 data, the spill rate for platform spills of 1,000 barrels or larger is 1.0 spills per billion barrels produced; and the spill rate for platform spills of 10,000 barrels or larger is 0.44 spills per billion barrels produced. The rate for spills 1,000 to 10,000 barrels in size can be found by subtraction, (0.56 spills per billion barrels produced).

As with platform spills, the spill rate for pipelines is based on the record for the U.S. OCS from 1964 through 1980. Two spills of 10,000 barrels or larger are in the data base, along with 6 spills of 1,000 to 10,000 barrels in size. No trend in the pipeline spill rate is evident. The spill rate for pipeline spills of 1,000 barrels or larger is 1.6 spills per billion barrels transported, and the rate for spills of 10,000 barrels or larger is 0.67 spills per billion barrels transported.

For tanker spill rates, previous OSTA models for California (Samuels and Lanfear, 1980, Samuels and others, 1981) used data for years prior to 1973. Using a new data base (The Futures Group, and World Information Systems, 1982) covering the years 1974 through 1980, Lanfear and Amstutz (1983) concluded that the tanker spill rate (expressed as spills per billion barrels transported) since 1974 was only about a third of that found prior to 1973. Thus, this oilspill analysis uses a significantly lower tanker spill rate than the earlier models. From 1974 through 1980, the data base contains records of 57 tanker spills of crude oil of 10,000 barrels or larger and another 57 spills of 1,000 to 10,000 barrels. During this period, approximately 88 billion barrels of oil were transported. Therefore, the spill rate for tanker spills of 1,000 barrels or larger is 1.3 spills per billion barrels transported; and the rate for spills of 10,000 barrels or larger is 0.65 spills per billion barrels transported.

In summary, the spill rates, expressed as number of spills per billion barrels produced or transported, used in this report are:

_>1,000 bbl _>10,000 bbl 1,000-10,000 bbl

Platforms 1.0 0.44 0.56

Pipelines 1.6 0.67 0.93

Tankers 1.3 0.65 0.65

Oilspill occurrence estimates for spills greater than 1,000 barrels (Table 1), from 1,000 to 10,000 barrels (Table la), and for greater than 10,000 barrels (Table Ib) were calculated for production and transportation of oil over the 25-year expected production life of proposed leases. Similar estimates were also calculated for production and transportation of oil from existing leases and for transportation of oil imported from other areas by tanker. The assumption was made that only one-half of the spills from tanker transportation of imported oil would occur within the study area and that the other half of the spills would occur outside the study area. Tables 1, la, and Ib show the "expected number" (or mean number) of spills estimated to occur in the study area over the expected production life of the lease area, along with the probabilities of one of more spills occurring.

Oilspill Trajectory Simulations

The trajectory simulation portion of the model consists of a large number of hypothetical oilspill trajectories that collectively represent both the general trend and the variability of winds and currents and that can be described in statistical terms. Representations of the seasonal surface-water velocity fields were provided by Dynalysis of Princeton, Princeton, N.J., who used their characteristic tracing model (Kantha and others, 1982). Basically, this model utilizes the geostrophic approximation to the governing equations of fluid motion in rotating coordinates.

Short-term patterns in wind variability were characterized by seasonal probability matrices for successive 3-hour velocity transitions. A first-order Markov process with 41 wind-velocity states (eight compass directions by five wind-speed classes, and a calm condition) was assumed. The elements of this matrix are the probabilities, expressed as percent chance, that a particular wind velocity will be succeeded by another wind velocity in the next time step in a given season. If the present state of the wind is given, then the next wind state is derived by random sampling according to the percentages given in the appropriate row of the matrix. Seasonal wind-transition matrices were calculated from the U.S. Weather Service records from Vandenberg

(station number 93214); San Nicolas Island (station number 93116); S.E. Farallons (station number F72495); Point Mugu (station number .93111), and San Diego (station number 93112), California. The study area was divided into zones so that a simulated oilspill would, depending upon its location, be directed according to the matrix of the appropriate wind station.

For each of the four seasons, five hundred hypothetical oilspill trajectories were simulated in Monte Carlo fashion from each of the 76 proposed leasing areas shown in figure 2 (P1-P76); from each of the 27 existing Federal lease tract groups shown in figure 3 (E1-E27); from each of the existing State lease areas shown in Figure 4 (S1-S8); and from each of 68 locations along the transportation network (L1-L24 and T1-T44, figures 5, 5a). Each potential spill source was represented as either a single point, a straight-line with the potential spill sources uniformly distributed along the line (for example, a transportation route), or as an area (for example, the potential spill sources uniformly distributed within the area). Surface transport of the oil slick for each spill was simulated as a series of straight-line displacements of a point under the joint influence of winds and currents in 3-hour increments. The assumptions used are as follows: (1) the effects of wind and currents act independently; (2) only a fraction of the velocity of the wind, as a result of surface shear stress, is imparted to the body of oil; and (3) the direction of oilspill motion induced by the wind is at some angle to the direction of the wind (a result of the combined effects of Ekman, Langmuir, and Stokes drifts). The seasonal wind- transition probability matrix was randomly sampled each 3-hour period for a new wind speed and direction, and the current velocity was updated as the spill changed location or the simulated month changed. The wind-drift factor was taken to be 0.035 with a variable drift angle ranging from 0 to 25 degrees clockwise. The drift angle was computed as a function of wind speed according to the formula in Samuels and others (1982); (the drift angle is inversely related to wind speed). As the simulated oilspill was moved, any contacts with one or more targets were recorded. Spill movement continued until the spill hit land, moved off the map, or aged more than 30 days.

The trajectories simulated by the model represent only hypothetical pathways of oil slicks and do not involve any direct consideration of cleanup, dispersion, or weathering processes that could determine the quantity or quality of oil that might eventually come in contact with targets. An implicit analysis of weathering and decay can be considered by noting the age of simulated oilspills when they contact targets. For this analysis, three time periods were selected: 3, 10, and 30 days, to represent implicit measures of oil weathering, as well as matters relating to containment and cleanup.

When calculating probabilities from Monte Carlo trials it is desirable to estimate the error associated with this technique. The standard deviation t s_ for a particular binomial probability, JD, is calculated as follows:

s. = SQRT(£(l-£.)/N)

where N. = number of trials. The shape of this distribution approximates the normal curve. For practical purposes, the Monte Carlo error is insignificant when N_ = 2,000, as in this analysis.

The probability that, if an oilspill occurs at a certain location, or launch point, it will contact a specific target within a given time of-travel (under the circumstances described above) is termed a conditional probability, because it is conditioned on oilspill occurrence. Each entry in tables 2, 3, and 4 represents the probability (expressed as percent chance) that, if a spill occurs at certain launch point, it will contact a particular target within 3, 10, or 30 days, respectively. Tables 5, 6, and 7 present similar probabilities for land segments. (These conditional probabilities allow for the possibility that the targets may not be vulnerable to oilspills for the entire year; a target that is vulnerable for only 1 month, for example, could have a conditional probability no higher than about 1/12.)

The conditional probabilities shown in tables 2 through 7 represent combined results of seasonal trajectories, as previously described. Conditional probabilities calculated from trajectories simulated in each season are presented in appendix B. Thus, tables B-l through B-4 are each based on 500 simulations per.launch point, and if combined give the year-round conditional probabilities shown in table 4 (which are based on 2,000 simulations per launch point). Appendix B presents such results for proposed areas P1-P76 for 30-day contacts to targets and land segments. For land segments, combining tables B5 through B8 gives the year-round probabilities shown in table 7.

Combined Analysis of Oilspill Occurrence and Oilspill Trajectory Simulations

In calculating the combined or "overall" probabilities of both spill occurrence and contact, the following steps are taken:

(1) For a set of nt targets and nl launch points, the conditional probabilities can be represented in a matrix form. Let [C] be an rit^ x n± matrix, where each element c_(j_ t k) is the probability that an oilspill will hit target i, given that a spill occurs at launch point j_. Note that launch points can represent potential spill starting points from production areas on transportation routes.

(2) Spill occurrence can be represented by another matrix [S]. With nl launch points and ns production sites; the dimensions of [S] are nl x ns. Let each element .s(j_,k) be the expected number of spills occurring at launch point j_ due to production of a unit volume of oil at site k_. These spills result from either

production or transportation. The j3.(j.,k_) can be determined as functions of the volume of oil (spills per billion barrels). Each column of [S] corresponds to one production site and one transportation route. If alternative and mutually exclusive transportation routes are considered for the same production site, they can be represented by additional columns of [S], effectively increasing ns.

Define matrix [U] as:

[U] = [C] x [S].

Matrix [U], which has dimensions nt x ns . is termed the unit risk matrix because each element .u(.i,k) corresponds to the expected number of spills occurring and contacting target JL owing to the production of a unit volume of oil at site k..

(4) With [U], it is a relatively simple matter to find the expected contacts to each target, given a set of oil volumes at each site. Let [V] be a vector of dimension ns_, where each element y_(k) corresponds to the volume of oil expected to be found at production site k_. Then, if [L] is a vector of dimension nt, where each element jXi.) corresponds to the expected number of contacts to target i :

[L] = [U] x [V].

Thus, estimates of the expected number of oilspills that will P-Ccur. and cpnt_a_ct targets (or land segments) can be calculated. (Note that as a statistical parameter, expected number can assume a fractional value, even though fractions of oilspills have no physical meaning.)

Using Bayesian techniques, Devanney and Stewart (1974) showed that the probability of n. oilspill contacts can be described by a negative binomial distribution. Smith and others (1982), however, noted that when actual exposure is much less than historical exposure, as is the case for most oilspill risk analyses, the negative binomial distribution can be approximated by a Poisson distribution. The Poisson distribution has a significant advantage in calculations because it is defined by only one parameter, the expected number of spills. The matrix [L] thus contains all the information needed to use the Poisson distribution: if P.(n_,jL) is the probability of exactly n contacts to target jL, then:

n £(n,i) = [H.i) *exp(-Hi))]/n!

A critical difference exists between the conditional probabilities calulated in the previous section and the overall probabilities calulated in this section. Conditional probabilities depend only on the winds and currents in the study area elements over which the decisionmaker has no control. Overall probabilities, on the other hand, depend not only on the physical conditions, but also on the course of action chosen by

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the decisionmaker; that is, choosing to sell or not to sell the lease tracts. The overall probabilities for this analysis are presented in the following tables:

Tables 8 .and 9 compare the probabilities of one or more oilspills (greater than 1,000 barrels) and the expected numbers (means) of such oilspills occurring and contacting targets and land segments within periods 3, 10, and 30 days over the expected production life of the lease area, based on the most likely volume scenario previously discussed (0.27 billion barrels). For each time period, the tables present an analysis of: (1) the proposed action; (2) existing leases and tankering of imported oil over the assumed production life of 25 years; and (3) a cumulative analysis of all three factors. It is useful to compare the probabilities of spills occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the proposed area with the risks from existing leases and tanker transportation of imported oil (see figure 7). In this way the relative effect of adding proposed tracts to the study area may be examined.

Tables 10 and 11 are arranged in a similar fashion, but present overall probabilities based on the conditional mean volume scenario (1.13 billion barrels).

Overall probabilities were also calculated on the basis of various tract deletion alternatives. Tracts were deleted from proposed areas near San Nicolas Island, Santa Monica Bay, and the San Diego County coastline. Appendix C presents the overall probabilities for the three deletion alternatives, as follows: Tables C-l and C-2 show probabilities of spills occurring and contacting targets and land segments, respectively, based on the most likely volume scenario, for the three deletion alternatives. Likewise, tables C-3 and C-4 present such probabilities based on the conditional mean volume scenario.

Conclusions

This analysis characterizes the oilspill risks associated with the Southern California lease offering (February 1984). For the most likely volume scenario the proposed lease offering will result in an estimated 0.27 billion barrels of oil being found and produced off the Southern California coast over a period spanning 25 years. There is a 67 percent chance that no spills of 1,000 barrels or larger will occur and contact land. There is a 33 percent chance that sometime during this 25 year period 1 to 2 spills of 1,000 barrels or larger could occur due to the proposed lease offering and contact land after being at sea less than 30 days. The risks from spills would be mitigated to the extent that weathering and decay of oil occurs at sea, and by the success of any spill countermeasures which would be attempted; these effects were not directly included in this oilspill model, but should be considered in translating the spill contacts predicted by this study into spill impacts for environmental analysis.

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For purposes of comparison, risks from existing sources of potential oilspills were also characterized over the same 25 year period as the proposed leases. These risks include all existing oil and gas leases as well as tanker transportation of Alaskan and imported 'crude oil; together they represent more than 8 billion barrels produced and/or transported over 25 years. It is estimated that over the next 25 years these existing sources will result in 2 to 12 spills of 1,000 barrels or larger occurring and contacting land. (Again, these estimates do not include weathering or spill countermeasures.)

The risks of the proposed lease offering are compared graphically with the existing risks in Figure 7, which shows the probability of 0, 1, 2, etc. spills of 1,000 barrels or larger occurring and contacting land within 30 days. Clearly, the existing sources are likely to result in mutiple spill contacts over the next 25 years, while there is a good probability that the proposed leases could result in no spill contacts. On the basis of mean or average number of spill contacts, 0.4 for the proposed lease offering vs. 6.8 for the existing risks, the proposed lease offering equals about 6 percent of the present oilspill risks in Southern California.

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References Cited

Bird, C. V., 1983, Memorandum to Regional Supervisor, Offshore Leasing and Environment, from Regional Supervisor, Offshore Resource Evaluation Division, Department of the Interior, March 2, 1983.

Dedrick, C. T., 1983, Letter to Regional Manager, Pacific OCS Region, from Executive Officer, California State Lands Commission, February 2, 1983.

Devanney, M. W., III, and Stewart, R. J., 1974, Analysis of oilspill statistics, April 1974: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Ca,mbridge) report no. MITSG-74-20 prepared for the Council on Environmental Quality, 126 p.

Kantha, L. H., Mellor, G. L., and Blumberg, A. F., 1982, A diagnostic calculation of the general circulation in the South Atlantic Bight. J. Phys. Ocean. 12(8), P. 805-819.

Lanfear, K. J., Smith, R. A., and Slack, J. R., 1979, An introduction to the oilspill risk analysis model: Proceedings of the Offshore Technology Conference, llth, Houston, Tex., 1979, OTC 3607, p. 2173-2175.

Lanfear, K. J., and Samuels, W. B., 1981, Documentation and user's guide to the U.S. Geological Survey oilspill risk analysis model: Oilspill trajectories and the calculation of conditional probabilities: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 81-316, 95 p.

Lanfear, K. J. and Amstutz, D.'E., 1983, A reexamination of occurrence rates for accidental oilspills on the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf: Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on the Prevention, Behavior, Control, and Cleanup of Oil Spills, San Antonio, Texas, February 28- March 3, 1983.

Nakassis, A., 1982, Has offshore oil production become safer?: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 82-232, 27 p.

Samuels, W. B. and Lanfear, K. J., 1980, An oilspill risk analysis for the Central and Northern California (Proposed Sale 53) OuterContinental Shelf lease area, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 80-211, 44 p.

Samuels, W. B., Lanfear, K. J., and Ropkins, D., 1981, An oilspill risk analysis for the Southern California (Proposed Sale 68) Outer Continental Shelf lease area, U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 81-605, 206 p.

Samuels, W. B., Huang, N. E., and Amstutz, D. E., 1982, An oilspill trajectory analysis model with a variable wind deflection angle: Ocean Engineering, v. 9, p. 347-360.

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Smith, R. A., Slack, J. R., Wyant, T., and Lanfear, K. J., 1982, The oilspill risk analysis model of the U.S. Geological Survey: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1227, 40 p.

The Futures Group, and World Information Systems, 1982, "Final technical report, Outer Continental Shelf Oil Spill Probability Assessment, Volume I: Data collection report", Prepared for the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Land Management, under contract number AA851-CTO-69, The Futures Group, Glastonbury, Conn., 69 p.

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List of Illustrations

Figure Page

1. Map showing the Southern California LeaseOffering study area and the proposed leasingareas* -. ^Q

2. Map showing the proposed leasing areas (numbered P1-P76) for the Southern California Lease Offering. 17

3. Map showing the existing Federal lease tractgroups (E1-E27) in the study area. 18

4. Map showing the existing state leases (S1-S8)in the study area. 19

5. Map showing the transportation route segments; T1-T44 represent tanker routes, L1-L24 represent pipelines. 20

5a. Enlargement of subset of Figure 5, showingnumbered transportation route segments. 21

6. Map showing the division of the shoreline into 57 segments of approximately equal1 «i-i rr f- l-i e 99 1 Cllg, L 11 O . t-t-

7. The overall probabilities of specific numbers of oilspills (1,000 barrels and greater) occurring and contacting land within 30 days

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OSTA Mode

Southern California

Figure 1. -- Map showing the Southern California Lease Offering study area and the proposed leasing areas.

16

3 1

Figu

re 2.

--

Ma

p showing

the

prop

osed

leasing

area

s (numbered

P1-P

76)

for

the

Southern California Lease

Offering.

3S

33'

Figure 3. -- Map showing the existing Federal lease tract groups (E1-E27) in the study area.

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61

UL

OSTA Model

Southern CalIfornla

Figure 5. -- Map showing the transportation route segments; T1-T44 represent tanker routes, L1-L24 represent pipelines.

20

33

32

31

M

Figure 5a. -- Enlargement of subset of Figure 5, showing numbered transportation route segments.

21

38°

30'

32'

30'

OSTA Mode

Southern California

Figure 6. -- Map showing the division of the shoreline into 57 segments of approximately equal lengths.

22

ro

Co

O _O O l_

Q_

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

0 1

Proposed

I eas

e offer

i hg

Ex

i st

i ng

r

i sk

s

689

10

11

12

Fig

ure

7.

-

Number of contacts to land

- The

over

all

probabilities

of s

pecific

numbers

of o

ilsp

ills

(1,000 ba

rrel

s and

greater) occurring

and

cont

acti

ng land wi

thin

30 d

ays

trav

el time.

List of Tables

Table Page

1. Oilspill probability estimates for spillsgreater than 1,000 barrels resulting overthe expected production life of theproposed leases, from existing leases,and from existing oil transportationin the study area. 26

la. Oilspill probability estimates for spills1,000 to 10,000 barrels resulting over theexpected production life of the proposedleases, from existing leases, and fromexisting oil transportation in the studyarea. 27

Ib. Oilspill probability estimates for spillsgreater than 10,000 barrels resulting overthe expected production life of the proposedleases, from existing leases, and fromexisting oil transportation in the studyarea. 28

2. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting at a particular location will contact a certain target within 3 days. 29



5. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting at a particular location will contact a certain land segment within 3 days. 53


24

List of Tables (Continued)


8. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the lease area, most likely volume scenario. 75

9. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting land segments over the expected production life of the lease area, most likely volume scenario. 76

10. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or more spills, and the expected number of spills (mean) occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the lease area, conditional mean volume scenario. 77

11. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance)one or more spills, and the expected numberof spills (mean) occurring and contactingland segments over the expected productionlife of the lease area, conditional meanvolume scenario. 78

25

Table 1.

-- Oil spill probability estimates fo

r spills greater than

1^000 barrels resulting over the

expected production

life of

th

e proposed leases* from exist.ing

leases/ and

from existing oil transportation in

the study area.

Expected no

Propo sed

Ac

t i on

(mos

t likely scenario)

0.32

Santa Ba

rb.

Channel

Inner Banks

Outer Banks* Basins

(cond. mean scenario)

San

t a

Oarb.

C han.

Inner Banks

Outer Banks* Basins

Amount

of spills from

of oi

l platforms

(Bbbls)

>1*000

0.32

0.11

0.10

0.11

1 .55

0.41

0.24

0.90

0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

.32

.1 1

.10

.11

.55

.41

.24

.90

of spills from

transportation

>1*000

0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. u. 1.

48 18 16 14 21 66

38 1 7

Total no.

of spi

I Is

>1*000

0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 1. 0. 2.

80 29 26 25 76 07 62 07

or more spills

(plat forms )

>1*000

0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.

27 10 10 10 79 34 21 59

or more spills

or more

s (transportation)

(Total)

>1*000

>1*000

0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.

38 16 15 13 89

48 32 69

0.55

0.25

0.23

0.22

0.98

0.66

0.46

0.87

Existing Leases

(Federal

& State)

3.02

Tanker Transportation

of crude oi

l imports:

with Proposed Action*

most li

kely

scenario

5.27

(from Alaska)

4.42

(from foreign)

0.85

with Proposed Action*

cond. mean scenario

4.11

(from Alaska)

3.26

(from foreign)

0.85

3.02

4.83

3.43

2.87

0.56

2,67

2.12

0.55

7.85

3.43

2.87

0.56

2.67

2.12

0.55

0.95

0.99 +

0.97

0.94

0.43

0.93

0.88

0.42

0.99 +

0.97

0.94

0.43

0.93

0.88

0.42

without Proposed

Action

5.56

(from Alaska)

4.71

(from forei gn)

0.85

3.61

3.06

0.55

3.61

3.06

0.55

0.97

0.95

0.42

0.97

0.95

0.42

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8 I'D

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t-t suijo

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siiid

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1 10 jo

1 unoui v

pauin

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j auu i

(OIJ

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3D

S

UP

5U

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UO

D)

suispy 'S))urn

j-'jnn

J auu i

psso

do

jj

CvJ

pajp Xpn i s

ai| ) u i

uoi JP uodsup J J

} i o 6uiisixd

uiOJ j pue 'sasea] Butjsixa uuojj

'saseai pasodojd am

jo aj i i

uotiDnpojd pajoadxa aqj

jgAo Buiiinsaj s]ajjpq nOO'Ot

l OOO't

""OJj siiids JDJ

sdieiuiisa Xiti^PPpoJd iitds-|to

'et

Table 1b. Oilspill prooability estimates fo

r spills greater than

10/000 barrels resulting over the expected production

life

of

th

e proposed leases/ from existing leases/ an

d fr

om existing oil

transportation in

th

e study area.

Expected no

.

00

Proposed Action

(most

likely scenario)

U.32

Santa Barb. Channel

Inner Banks

Outer Banks

(cond. mean scenario)

Santa darb. Chan.

Inner Banks

Outer Banks/ Basins

Amount

of spills from

of oil

platforms

(Bbbls)

>10/000

' U.32

0.11

0.10

0.11

1 .5

5

0.41

0.24

0.90

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

.14

.05

.04

.05

.68

.18

.1 1

.40

of spills from

transportat ion

>10/000

0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

??.0

8

.07

.07

.03

.28

.16

.59

Total no

. of

spills

>10,000

0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

.36

.13

.11

.1 2

.71

.46

.27

.99

or more spills

(platforms)

>10/000

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

.15

.05

.04

.05

.49

.16

.10

.33

or more spills

or more sp

(transportation)

, (Total)

>10,000

>10,000

0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.

20 08 07 07 64 24 15 45

0.30

0.12

0.10

0.11

0.82

0.37

0.24

0.63

Existing Leases

(Federal

& St

ate)

3.02

Tanker Transportation

of crude oil

imports:

with Proposed Action/

most likely scenario

S.27

(from AUska)

4.42

(from foreign)

0.85

with Proposed Action/

cond. mean scenario

4.11

(from Alaska)

3.26

(from foreign)

0.85

1.33

2.02

1.71

1.43

0.2H

1*34

1 .06

0.28

3.35

1.71

1.43

0.28

1 .3

41.06

0.28

0.74

0.87

0.82

0.76

0.24

0.74

0.65

0.24

0.96

0.82

0.76

0.24

0.74

0.65

0.24

without Proposed

Action

5.56

(from Alaska)

4.71

(from foreign)

0.85

1 .8

11.53

0.28

1.81

1.53

0.28

0.84

0.78

0.24

0.84

0.78

0.24

Table 2. (Continued)

--

Probabilities (exoressed as

percent chance) th

at an oilspill starting

at

a particular location will contact

a certain target within

3 days.

T a ry

e t

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel Islands

N. Sea

Otter Ranqe

S. Sea Otter <?ange

Sea

Otter Ranqe

Santa Monica Say

San Nicholas

Jegg

N. An

San

P.Least

Least

Least

Least

Least

N. Of

S. Of

Anacapa Island

Santa tiarbara Island

Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Farallon Islands

Ba j

a Islands

Coastal Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Hypothetical Spill Location

P26 P27 P28 P29 P30 P31

P3? P33 P34 P35 P36 P37 P38 P39 PAD P41

P42

P43 P44 P45 P46 P47 P48 P49 P50

74 74

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Area

Area

Area

Area

A re

a Area

Area

43

35 35

cholas Island

o c k

c apa

yue I

Tern

Tern

fern

Tern

Tern

shor

s ho

r

Island

Is land

Colonies

Colony

1Colony

?.Colony

3Colony

4e

Feeding

e Feeding

1 5 4 n n n n n n n

59n

45 15n n n n n n n

901

2 n n n n n n n n1 5

84

n n n n n n n n n4?

n n n n n n n n n11

n n n n n n n n n94

n n n n n n n n n70

n n n n n n n n 4 n

9 1 n n n n n n n32n

3 n n n n n n n n1

114

S6

98

34

6?

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

19n

55 55n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n

10n n n n n n n n n 6 4

18n

14 14n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n 5 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 7

3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 6 n n n n n n n n n n n n' n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n24n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n53n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n



19 n 2 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 9

12

38 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

28

Note:

** =

Greater than 99.5 percent;

n =

less

than 0.5 percent.

Table 2. -- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) th

at an oil spill starting

at



3 days.

Target

Land

N. Channe I

Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel Islands

N. Sea

Otter Ranje

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Mon i

ca

Bay

San Nicholas Island

tfegg

Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San Miguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony

?. Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Co

lony

it N. Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island

Santa Barbara Island

Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa raI Ion islands

Baj

a Is Iands

Coastal Feed. Area

1 Coastal Feed. Area




5 Coastal Feed. Area 6

Coastal Feed. Area

7

P1P2

P3

P4

P5

P6Hypothetical Spill Location

P7

P8

P9

P10 P11

P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P20 P2

1 P22 P23 P24 P25

21

8 n 1

8 n n n n n n n11

n n n n n n n n n n

12

5 n 2

5 n n n n n n n11

n n n n n n n n n n

18

67 n

67 n n n n n n n

66 n n n n n n n n n n

1 8 n 8 n n n n n n n 6 n n n n n n n n n n

43

92 n

92 n n n n n n 1 ?. n n n n n n n 1 n n

21 53 5

58 n n n n n n

14 n 1 1 n n n 1 n

30 3 n

11

7 ?2

40 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n 2 n 6

1 5 n

1 3 n

17

1 7 n n n

15 n n n n n n n n n n n n ?

29 n 5 5 n n n

1 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

43 n 1 1 n n n

22 n n n n 1 n 1 n n n n n n

?9 n n n n n n n n n n n 4 n 4 n n n n n

33 n n n n n n n n n n n

12 n

1? n n n n n

5 n rv

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

132 n

32 n n n n n n n

21n n n n n 2 n n n n

n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

113

13 n n n n 4 8 n n n n n n

65 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n32 4 n n n

41

9

19 n n n n 7 A n n n n n n

68 n n n n

14 n n n n n n

27

41n n n n n n

96

13 n n n

3 n n n n n n11 13 n n n n n n n

73

49

n n n

11

3 6

19 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

13 n 1 1 n

25 421

45n

1312

126 31

14

13

124 14

n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n

n .

n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n

Note:

**

= Greater than 99.5 percent; n

= less than 0.5 percent.

Table 2.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oil spill starting

at



3 days.

Ta rge

tHypothetical Spill Location

P51

P52

P53 P54 P5

5 P56 P57 P58 P59 P60 P61

P62

P63 P64 P65 P66 P67 P68 P69 P70 P71

P72 P73 P74 P75

CO

Land

26N.

C hanne llslands

nS. Channel Islands

nC hanne llslands

nN. Sea

Otter Range

nS. Sea

Otter Range

nSea Otter Range

nSanta Monica Bay

nSan Nicholas Island

nBegg Rock

nN. Anacapa Island

nSan Miguel Island

nLeast Tern Colonies

nLeast Tern Colony

1 n

Least Tern Colony

2 n

Least Tern Colony

3 n

Least Tern Colony

4 n

N. Offshore Feeding

nS.

Offshore Feeding

3Anacapa Island

nSanta Barbara Island

nCoronados Islands

nGuadalupe Island

nFarallon Islands

nBa j

a Is

lands

nCoastal Feed. Area

1 n

Coastal Feed. Area

2 n

Coastal Feed. Area

3 n

Coastal Feed. Area

4 n

Coastal Feed. Area

5 n

Coastal Feed. Area 6

nCoastal Feed. Area

7 10

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 4 3

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n1

7

n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 7

n n n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 6

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1


36 13n

13n n n

25n n n n 7 6 n n n n n 5 n n n n n n 7

62 n n n n

55n n n n n n

98n n n n

13n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

95n n n n

74n n n n n n n n n n n

29n

29n n n n n n n n n n n n

**n n n

20n n n n n n n n n n n 5 n 4 n n n n n n n n n n n n

52 n 2 n

20n n n n n n n n n n n 6 n n 6 n n n n n n n n n n n

30 17n n

6 n n n n n n n n n n n 3 n n 2 1 n n n n n n n n n n 122 n n

8 n n n n n n n n n n n 3 n n n 3 n n n 1 n n n n n n n43 n n

Note:

**



Table 2. (Continued) --

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an

oi

l soil I

starting

at



3 days.

CJ

ro

Ta rge

t

Land

N. Channe I

Islands

S. Channe I

I s lands

Channel Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea

Otter Range

Sant a Mon i ca

Bay

San Nicholas Island

Becjg

Rock

N. Anacaoa Island

San

Miguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony 2

Least Tern Co lony

5 Least Tern Colony 4

N. Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacaoa Island


'Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa ra

I Ion

Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Feed.

Area

1 Area

2 A re

a 3

Area

4 Area


Coastal Feed. Area

7

Coastal

Coastal Feed.

P76

26 n n n n n n n

729 n n n n n n n

91 30n n n n n n n n n n n n

E1 59 n n n 2

83 83n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

E2

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

E3

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n r\ n n n n n n n n n n


E5

n n n n n n n n n'

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

E6


E7


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


E9

E10 E11

E12 E13 E1

4 E1 5

E16

E17

E18 E19 E20 E2

1 E22 E23 E24

33

n39

39

n n19 n n n

11 30n

30

n 27

n n25n n n

38 2 n 2

317 17n

20

65 914

486

43 32

741 2

* *

52 26

1 26 1

99 1

Note:

**

= Greater than 99.5 percent/

n =

less

than 0.

5 percent.

Table 2. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an

oilspill starting

at



3 days.

00

CO

Target

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Say

San Nicholas Island

Begg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San Miguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony

4 N. Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronddos Islands

Guaddlupe Island

Farallon Islands

3a j

a Islands

Coastal Feed. Area

1 Coastal Feed.

A re

a 2

Coastal Feed. Area




Coastal Feed. Area

7

E25 5

16n

16n n n n 9

13n n n n n

E26


25n

25

E27 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

S1 344 n 4 n n n n n n n 5 n n n

S? 69n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

S3 72n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

190

93

9890 28


S4

S5

S6

S7

S*

T1

T2

T3

80

89

1it

*

67 1 1

1 1

41 41 92 44

67 8

1 4

14 796

76 23

Note:

**

= Greater than 99.5 percent;

n =

less than 0.

5 percent,

1 51

39

n 26

T4

T5

T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 T11

T12 T13

n 29







Table 2.

(Continued) --


oilspill starting

at

a particular location yill contact

a certain target yithin 3

days.

U)

T a rget

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. ChanneI Islands

Channel

Is I

ands

N. Sea

Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea

Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas

Is land

Begg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San

Mi gue I

Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Co

lony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Co

lony

3 Least Tern Colony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa

I s

I and


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Faralion Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed. Area


Coastal Feed. Area


Coastal Feed. Area


Coastal Feed. Area

7

T15 T16 T17 T1


T19 T20 T21

T22 T23 T24 T25 T26 T27 T28 T?9 T30 T3

1 T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 T37 T38 T39



627n

27n n n n n n n

18n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

645n

45n n n n n n n

45n n n n n n n n n n n n n 4 n n n n n n

?74 n 4 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

542 n n n n n

41 97n

97n n n n n . n 9 1 n n n n n n n

17n n n n n

1 5

26 n n n n n

5422

44n n n 1 n n 9 n n n n n n 1 n

311 n n n n n 4 1 n n 1 n

20 n 1 1 n n n

11n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 127 n 9 n

60 n n n n n n

1 5 n n n n 3 n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n

18 68 n 1 n


14n

14n n n n n n n n n n n n n

* * n n n

14n 5 3 n n n n

29 ?1n n n. n n n n


1 n76 76n n n n n n n n n n n n n 7 n n


30n

21 21n n n 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n ? n n n n n n 7 6 n

14n


26n


90 n n n

21n n n n n n n n n n n 7 n 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

35n ? n

3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n43n n n n n n n n n n n n n

24n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 4 8


10 n10n n n n n n n n n n n n n

44n 9 n

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 6 n n n n n n n n n n n n 5

10n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2

10

3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 3

3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2




Note:

** =


n =

less than 0.5 percent.

Table 2.

(Continued) --

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



3 days.

U)

en

Target

Land

N. Channe I

Islands

S. Channe I

Islands

C hanneI Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Mon i

ca

Bay

San Nicholas Island

Begg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San Miguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Col ony

3 Least Tern Colony

4 N.

Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa raI Ion Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed

Coastal Feed

Feed

T43 T41

T42 T43 T44

L1Hypothetical Spill Location

L?

L

3

L4

L5

L6

L7

L8

L9

L1Q

L11

L1

?

L1

3

L14

L15

L16

L1

7

L1

8

L19

L20

Coastal

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal

fee

d.

Area

1 A rea

2 Area

3 A rea

4 Area

5 Area 6

Coastal Feed. Area

7




n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

18 n n n 2

27

28 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

8 n n n n 2 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

8 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n 1 n n n n n



12 4 n 4 n n n n n n n 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

40 n n n n n

n 3 n 3 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

i.17 n

17 n n n n n n n

1 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

13 n n n n n n

1 3

78 n'

78 n n n n n n n

46 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

29

16 n

16 n n n n n n n


47 n n n n n n

112 n 2 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

36 n n n n n n

68

24 n

24 n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n 2

93

n n n n n

19

* * n

* * n n n n n n

20 n 4 4 n n n n n

17 n n n n n n

84

3 n n n n

8 n 6 6 n n n35 n n n n 1 n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n

27 n n 2 n

56 rt n n n n n

98 n n n n

12 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

97 n n n n

n n n rt n rt n rt rt rt n rt rt n n n n rt rt n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 n rt rt n rt rt n 5 9 n rt n n rt n rt41

5 n rt n n n n n n n rt n n n

2 rt n n n n rt rt 712 n rt n n n n rt

81 1 8

I o n n n n n n rt n n rt rt n rt

50 n rt n n n n n n n n n

16 n

16 n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

56 n

10 n

2 rt rt rt n n rt n rt rt n rt 1 rt n n rt rt n rt rt rt n rt n n rt rt 5 4 1 rt

Note: **

=


n =


Table 2.

(Continued) --

Probabilities (exoressed as percent chance) that an oi (.spill starting

at

a particular location -will

contact


3 days.

Target

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

13 egg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

S d n

<l i

:) u e

I Island

least Tern Colonies

Lcjst Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Co

lony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Farallon Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed.

Coastal

F eed.

Feed.

Coastal

Coastal

F ee

d.

Coastal Fe

ed.


Coastal Feed. Area

7

A rea

1 Area 2

Area

3 Area

4 A re

a 5

L21

L22 L23 L?A


75

44

Note: ** =


n =


Table

3. --

ProoabiIities (expressed as

percent chance) that

an oil soi

l I starting

at


a certain target within 10

days.

Target

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

ChanneI Islands

N. Sea

Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica 9 a y

San Nicholas Island

Ueyy Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San 1i yue I

Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony


S. Offshore' Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Farallon Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed. Area






Coastal Feed. Area

7

P1

P2

P3

P4

P5P6

Hypothetical Soill Location

P7

P8

P9

P10 P11

P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P?0 P2

1 P22 P23 P24 P25

631

n31

n n n n n n n22 n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n

n

22

8 n28 n n n n n n n

14 n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

41 76 n

76 n n n n n n n


17 1 n n n n

55

21n

21n n n n n n n


62 5 n n n n

85

92 n

9? n n n n n n 4 3 n n n n n n n 4 n n n n n

38

45 n n n n

51 59 8

66 n n n n ? 1

19 n 1 1 n n n

14 n

36 5 n n n n ?

48 1 n n 1

1 8

?9

?9

S8 n n ? 6 2 > n n n n n n

311

10

20

'

n n n n n ? 3 n n 4

55 3

22 25 n n

30 ? 1 n n 3 n n n n

12 n 1 6 n n n n n n

35 2 n 9 3

68 1

10

11

n n29 1 1 n n 3 n 1 n n 5 n n 3 n n n n n n

317 n

20 1

76 1 2 3 n n

31n n n n 4 n 3 n n 1 n n 1 n n n n n n

34 35 n

20 1

45 n 1 1 n n 1 n n n n 4 n 4 n n 1 n n n n n n n n n 1

?4 1

?2 4


15n


46 1

1 5 1

26 n n n n n n n n n n n 3 n 2 n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n 7 5

13 5

15n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n 1 1 n n n n 1 n n n n n n 2

10 2 7

11n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n 6 n n n n n n 1

1 1 6

n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

233 n

33 n n n n n n n

22 n n n n n

12 6 n n n n n n n n n n n n

n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n 7 4 n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 3 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n

913 n

15 n n n

1 7

19 n n n n n n n

76

26 n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 n n n n n n 4 4 n n n n n n n51 32 n n n n n n n n n n n n

24

22 n

22 n n n

38

23 n n n n n n n


27 n n n n n n n

44 51n n n n n n n


4 n n n n n n n1

31

4 n n n n n n n73


n

12

18

10

27 n n n n

20 9 n n n n n n n

69 4 2 2 n n n n n n n n n n n

Note: **

=


n =

less

than 0.

5 percent

Table 3. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an

oil spill starting

at


a certain tarqet within 10

days.

GO

00

Target

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel Islands

N. Sea

Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Ramje

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San

Nicholas Island

Hey 9 Rock

N. A-

iaca

yj Island

', <j n

iijijel

Island

. r

j *

t lern Colonies

Least lern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony

4 N. Offshore

F e e d

i n.g

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

GuadaIupe Island

Farallon Islands

Ba j

a Islands

Coastal Feed. Area

1 Coas t

a I

Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal Feed

Coastal

Area

2 Area

3Feed. Area

4 Feed. Area

5 A re

a 6

Area

7Feed


P26 P27

P28 P29 P30 P31

P3? P33

p'3 4

P35 P36 P37 P38 P39 P40 P41

P42 P43 P4

4 P45 P46 P47 P48 P49 P50

22

30

42 1 7

56 18

24

16

77 77 136

37 37 19

n 86 12n 1

n 93 20n n

n 16 93n n

n n61n n

n n19n n

n n96n n

n n72n n

n334 n

45 n

45 1 3 n 5 n

1 3

43n n n

n72n n n

n99 n n n

n35n n n

n62n n n

Note:

**

= Greater th

an 99.5 percent;

n =

less

than 0.5

percent,

49

41

57 57 1 3 9

24

1 5

1 5

1 5

24n

3758

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n



49 n 3 3 n n n n 3 n n n n n n n 5 2 n n n n n n n n n n n

11 36

57 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n 1 3 n n n n n n n n n n n 1

41

Table 3.

(Continued) 7- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an

oilspill starting

at


a certain target within 10 days.

T arge t

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel

I s I

ands

Channel Islands

N. Sea

Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Qegg Rock

N. Anac apa

Is land

San Miguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Co lony

1 Least Tern Co

lony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony

A N.

Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Farallon Is

lands

Baj a Islands

Coastal Feed. Area



Coastal Feed. Area





P51

P52 P53 P54 P55 P56 P57 P58 P59 P60 P61

P62 P63 P64 P65 P66 P67 P68 P69 P70 P71

P72 P73 P74 P75

27

1 n

n n

n2325

2 n

n n

n n n n n n n n n n1

1 n n n n n n


5 n n n n n n


n n n n n n

115

1 9

28

13n n n

,n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 4 n n n n n n n 1 n

15

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 3 n n 1 n n n n n n n n n 2

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 4 n n n n n n n 1 n 3


72 241

25n n n

30n n 2 n

10 6 n n n 6 n

121

n n n n 1

11 71n n n n

912 n 2 n n n

99 n n n n18n n n n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n

98 n n n n

82n n 1 n n n n n n n n

30 n30n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

**n 4 n


12 n


63 212n

52 n n n n n n n n n n n 12n 4 8 n n n n n n n n n n n n

41 238 1

31n n n n n n n n n n n 9 n 2 4 3 n

. n n n n n n n n n n 9

33 3 1

24 n n n n n n n n n n n 7 n n 1 6 n n n n 2 n n n n n n 3

51n 1

Note: **

=


n =



Probabilities (exoressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



days.

Ta rge t

Land

N. Channe I

Islands

S. Channel Islands

C hanneI Islands

N. Sea

Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Begg Rock

N. Anac apa

Is I

and

San liguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Co lony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Co

l ony

3 Least Tern Co

l ony

4 N. Offshore, Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe

I s

I and

Fa raI I

on

Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed. Area



3 Coastal

F eed. Area



Coastal Feed.

A rea

7

P76

E1

E2

E3

29

70

739

91 49

13 86 88

E4

1

E5Hypothetical Soill Location

E6

E7

E8

E9

E10 E11

E12 E13 E14 E15 E16 E17 E1

8 E19 E20 E2

1 E22 E23 E24

Note

: **


n =

less than 0.

5 percent.

461 n 1 5

43 45n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 4 n 4 n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n

210n 10n n n n n n 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n

315n

1 5 n n n n n n m n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

113 n 3 2 4 5 n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n 3 n n n n n

14 10n

10n n n n n n 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n 7 n n n n n

12 25n

25n n n n n n n


21n n n n n

30 57n 57n n n n n n n


28 n n n n n

69 11n 11n n n n n n n 9 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

881 n n n n

50 28n

28n n n n n n n


58 3 n n n n n


947 n n n n n

75 18n 18n n n n n n t 2 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n 56 37n n n n n

79

13 n

13n n n n n n 5 n n n n n n n n 4 n n n n n 3

* * n n n n n

79

33 n

33 n n n n n n

17 n 8 8 n n n n n

16 n n n n n 3

99 2 n n n n


--


oilspill starting

at



days,

Target

Land

N, Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel Islands

N. Sea

Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Ranie

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

I3eg

y Hock

N. Anacapa Island

San Mi

ijue

l Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Farallon Islands

Ba j

a Islands

Coastal Feed.

Feed.


Coastal

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Fe

ed.

Coastal

Area

1Area

2Area

3Area

4Area

5Fe

ed.


Coastal

F eed.

A re

a 7

£25

24 1?n

17n n n n

41 3tf n n n n n n n

* *


E26

77n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n n

?6 n


90 n

E27

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n18n n n n n n n n n n n

S1 61 19n

19 n n n n n n n19 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

98 1 n n n

S2 92 ? n > n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

* * 1 n n

S3 85? a 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n a n n

90

31i n

S4 844 n 4 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n 1

* * n n

ss 924 n /, n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n 1

* * n n

'36

84 18n

18n n n n n n

10n

41 41

n n n n in n n n n 292 45 n

S7 89 1 3 n

1 3 n n n 9 n n 1 n

1 5

1 5 n n ? n 6 n n n n 1

10

97 n

S8


24n

24n n i n n n n n n n n 1

* *

T1

2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 9 a n n n n

T2 1 S n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

57n n n n n n

T3

57n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

34n n n n n n

T4 23n n n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

33n n n n n

T5 45n n n 6 n 6 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n

T6 20n n n 5 n 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

T7

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n a n n n n n n n a n n n n n n

T8


T9

T10 T1

1 T12 T13 T14

Note

: **


n =

less than 0.

5 percent.

Table 3. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



days,

ro

Target

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

ChanneI Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Begg Rock

N.

A a d c a p d

Island

S an

.4

i ij

ue I

Island

least Fern Colonies

Least Tern Co

lony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Co

lony

3 Least Tern Colony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa raI I

on

Is lands

8a ja

Islands

Coastal Feed.

A re

a 1

Coastal Feed. Area



Coastal Feed. Area


Coastal Feed. Area

7


T15

T16 T17

T1ft T19

T20 T?1

T22

T23 T24

T25

T?6 T27 T28 T29 T3

0 T31

T3? T33 T34 T35 T36 T37 T38 T39

10

34n

34n n n n n n n

25 n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

46

54n

54n n n n n n n


42 2 n n n n n

76

10 n

10 n n n n n n n 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

83 5 n n n n n

89

9ft n

9ft n n n n n n 9 2 n n n n n n n

17 n n n n n

31 30 n n n n n

33

517

57 n n n

10 ? 1

10 n 2 n n n n

18 n

35 3 n n n n n 7

1 1 1 n 3 1

65 2 5 7 n n n

35 1 n n n 4 n 1 n n 5 n n 2 n n n n n n

38

16 n

20 n

79 n 1 ? n n n

20 n n n n 5 n 4 n n 1 n n 1 n n n n n n

22

70 n 7 n

83 n 1 1 n n n 1 n n n n

14 n


* * n 4 n

33 n 4 5 n n n n

S1

29 n n n n n n n

87 15 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n

22 n

78

78 n n n n

14 6 n n n n n n n

38 5 n

35 n n n n n n n n n n 7

62 n

24

25 n n n

17 2 1 n n 2 n 1 n n 7 n n 5 n n n n n n

18 12 n

22 3

77 n 1 1 n n n n n n n n

28 n


91 n 6 n

58 n n n n n n 1 n n n n

14 n


52 1

12 n

6 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 15


45 n 1 1 n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n 3 2 n n n n n n n n n n n

16

24

55 n n n n n n 1 n n n n

12 n


45 1

19 1

2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n14 n n n n n n n n n n n n 5

21n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 1 n n n n n n n n 3

21

7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1 8

12 n n n n n n n n r» n n n n n n n n n n n 3 n n n n n n n 3 3

10

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n



Note: **

=


n =


Table 3. (Continued) -- Probabilities (exoressed as

percent chance) that an

oilspill starting

at



days.

Taryet

Land

N. Channel Isl ands

S. Channe I

Isl ands

Channel Islands

N. Sea

Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica 9ay

San Nicholas Island

Degg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San Miguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Co lony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

GuadaIupe

I sI

and

Farallon Islands

Oa j

a Isl ands

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Feed.

T40 T41

T42 T4

3 T44


L2

L3

L4

L5

L6

L7

L8

L9L10 L1

1 L12 L13 L14 L1 5

L16 L17 L18 L19 L20

Coastal

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Area

1 Area

2 Area

3 Area

4 Area

5 Area 6

Area

7




n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n rr n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

?6n n n

1 3

3? 40n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

20n n n S 8

1 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n h n n n n n n n n n n

1 7 6 n 6 n n n n n 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 5 n n n n n


1 9 n 9 n n n n n n 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

?0 ?3n

?3n n n n n n

1 B

I O n n n n n n n n n n n n n

41n n n n n

n1 3 n

1 3 n n n n n n 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 5

41n

41n n n n n n n

34n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n

14n n n n n n

?n 80n

80 n

. n n n n n n

54n n n n n 3 1 n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n

61 27n

27n n n n n n n


6S 2 n n n n n


80 5 n n n n n

84 30n

30n n n n n n 8 n n n n n n n n 7 n n n n n 3

94n n n n n

80 * * n

* * n n n n n n

24 1 4 4 n n n n n

23n n n n n 5

863 n n n n

673 9

12n n n

59 1 n n n

10n n n n 7 n 1 4 n n n n n n

622 n 5 1

9?1 n 2 n n n

99 n n n n

16n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n

99n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

5 1 n 1 n n n n 11 13n n n n n n n

56 32n n n n n n n n n n n n n

6 n n n n n n n 16 17 n n n n n n n


66 n n n n n n 1 n n n n 18 n


58 n

1 8

I O

1

37 n n n n n n n n n n n 8 n 4 3 1. n n n n n n n n n n n

20 14 9 n

Note: **

=

Greater than 99.5 percent; n

= less than 0.

5 percent.


-

Ta rge

t

Land

N. Channe I

Islands

S. Channe I

I s

I ands

ChanneI

I s lands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Ranqe

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Beyg Rock

N. Anac apa

San Mi

g u e I

Least Tern

Least

Least

Least

Least

N. Offshore Feeding

S. Of

fshore

F eeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

GuadaIupe Island

Fa ration Islands

Ba )

a Islands

Coastal Feed. Area

1Coastal Feed. Area

2Coastal Feed. Area

3Coastal Feed. Area

* Coastal Feed. Area

5Coastal Feed. Area 6

Coastal Feed. Area

7

Island

Island

Colonies

Tern Co lony

1 Tern Co

l ony

2 Tern Co lony

3 Tern Colony

4

80

- Probabilities (expressed as


at



days,

L21

L22

L23 L2A


Note: **

=


n =

less than 0.

5 percent.

Table 4.

-- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) that an oil spi

t I starting

at


a certain target within 30 days.

Target

P2

P3

P4

P5

P6Hypothetical Soill Location

P7

P8

-P9

P1Q P1 1

P1

2

P1 3

P1 4

P1

5 P1

6 P17 P18 P19 P20 P2

1 P22 P23 P24 P25

Land

N. Channel Islands

S . Channel Islands

C hanne I

Islands

N. Sea

Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Begg Kock

N. Anacapa Island

San

Miguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1Least Tern Colony

2Least Tern Colony

3Least Tern Co lony

4N

. Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa

I s

I and

Santa Garbara Island

C oronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa ra lion Islands

da j

a

I s

I ands

Coastal Feed.

A re

a 1

Coastal Feed.

Area


3Coastal Feed. Area

4Coastal Feed. Area

5Coastal Feed.

Area 6

Coastal Feed. Area

7

733n

33n n n n n n n


228 n28n n n n n n n

1 5 n n n n n 4


55 78n 78n n n n n n n

76n n n n n 2 3 n n n n n n

24? n n n n n

76 32n 32n n n n n n 3

1 4 n n n n n 1 1 3 n n n n n

67 1 2 n n n n n

93 92n

9?n n n n n n 6 3 n n n n n n n 6 n n n n n

39 46n n n n n

65 60 1 1

68n n n n

106

?. 1 n 1 1 n n n28 8386 n n n 2

48 1 n n n 1

40

3? 3263 n n n 4?3 1 3 7 n 1 n n n n

54 21 1 1

??n n n n 7 5 n n n 6

73S

?3 28n n n 3? 1 0 6 n n n n n n

249 2 6 n n n n 1

393 n 9 5

as 311 1 4 n n n

326 4 n n n 1 n n

134 1 4 n n n n n

349 1

213

88 1 2 4 n n n332 1 n n n 3 n n 4 ? n 1 1 n n n n

35 363

213

67n 1 1 n n n 1 1 n n n n 5 1 1 1 2 n n 4 n n n n n 1

278

?4 12

76n n n n n n 1 n n n n

1 8 n

1 5 1 2 1 1 n n 2 n n n n n 1

489

197

58n n n n n n n 1 n n n n 3 2 2 1 2 n n 3 n n n n n n

1 1

1 2

17 1 7

53n n n n n n n 1 n n n 9 n 4 2 3 1 2 n n 4 n n n n n n

11 188

17

49 n n n n n n n n n n n 9 n 4 2 2 n 1 n n a n n n n n n

1 2

177

11

n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n 1 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

233n

33n n n n 1 1 n

22n n n n n

1 5


n 1 n 1 n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 915n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 51 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

12 14n

14n n n n

20 21n n n n n n n


3 n n n n n n n 5 4 n n n n n n n52 45n n n n n n n n n n n n

31 221

22n n n n

47 28 n n n n n n n


29n n n n n n n

46 51n n n n n n n


5 n n n n n n n14 14n n n n n n n

73


27 18

11 29 n n n n35

1 7 1 n n n n n n

79

29 2 3 n n n n n n n n n 1

Note:

**

= Greater than 99.5 percent/"

n =

less than 0,5 percent.

Table A.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as


at



days.

CTt

Target

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

C hanne I

Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Ranqe

Santa Mon i

c a

Bay

San Nicholas Island

Jegg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San

,-liguel Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Co lony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Co

lony

A N.

Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Is land


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Farallon Islands

Ba j

a Islands

Coastal Feed. Area



3 Feea. Area

A


P26 P27

P?8 P?9

P3T P31

P3? P33

P"SA P35

P36 P37

P38 P39 PAD PA1

PA2

PA3 PAA PAS PA6' PA7 PAS PA9 P50

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

F eed.

Feed.

A re

a 5

Feed. Area 6

Area

7

29

33

A7

19 87 33

57 19 93

3A16

9A62

19

96

72

36

22

77 78

n n n1 Q 9 n n n n n n n

37 22n

A6

37

37

n n n?15 n n n n n n n

A7 29n 5

1 1 n n n 5 n n n n n n n n1 3

51n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n75n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n99 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n35n n

62

66n

57 57n n n 1 8 A n n n n n n n

139 n

1 3 1 n n n n n 1 1 n 9

30

A8 n

16 16n n n n 7 1 n n n n n n n

10 20n 1 n n n n n n n n n n

18

12 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n31n n n n n n n n n n n n 1

2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n nAO n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n59n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 5 n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n

63n 3 3 n n n n A n n n n n n n n 6 8 n n 1 n n n n n n n n

11 AO

68 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n 2 7 n n 1 n n n n n n n n 1

A2

Note:

**


= less than 0.

5 percent.

Table A. (Continued) --

Probabilities (expressed as


at



days.

Target

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channe I

Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Montea Bay

San Nicholas Island

Begg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San M

i gueI Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony

A N. Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa raI Ion Is lands

Ba ja

Islands

Coastal Feed. Area

1 Coastal Feed.

A rea

2 Coastal Feed.

A rea


A Coastal Feed.

A rea


Coastal Feed. Area

7


P51

P52

P53

P5A

P5S P56 P57 P58 P59 P60 P61

P62 P63 P6A P65 P66 P67 P68 P69 P70 P7

1 P72 P73 P74 P75

31 1 1

14

17

11

1 A9

A8

18

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n

n n n n 1 n n n 2 n 1 1 1 2 A n n '

6 n n n n n n 3 A 7?

6

n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n 2 n n 5 n n n n n n 2 1 131

AA n n n n 5 7 3

19

31

16

36A n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n

82 272

28n n n

316 A 3 n

107 n n n

175

1 A 1 n n n n 1

11 72n n n n

953 n 3

\n n n

992 1 n n

18n n n n 5 1 1 n n n n n n n

98n n n n

92n 1 1 n n n 1 1 n n n

31n

301 n 1 1 n n 1 n n n n n 1

* * 6 5 2

78n n n n n n 1 n n n n

15 n122 1 1 n n n 1 n n n n n 1

659 175

76 n n n n n n n 1 n n n16n 6 9 1 1 1 n n 1 n n n n n n

45 26 U8


15 n 6 5 3 1 n n n 1 n n n n n n

20 36 168


14n 5 3 7 n 1 n n 2 n n n n n n

19

54 12 4

Note: **


n =



Probabilities (exoressed as

percent chance) th

at an

oilspill starting

at



days.

T a rg

e t

00

Hypothetical Soill Location

F6

E7

-ER

E9

E10 E11

E12 E13

E 1

E15

E16

E17

E18 E19 E20 E21

E22 E23 E24

Land

N . Channe I

I s lands

S. Channe 1

I s lands

Channe I

Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Mon i ca 3ay

San Nicholas Island

Oegg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San "l

igue

l Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Co

l ony

1Least Tern Colony

2Least Tern Colony

3Least Tern Colony

4N. Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa ra lion Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed. Area

1Coastal Feed.

Area

2Coastal Feed.

A re

a 3

Coastal Feed.

Area

4Coastal Feed.

A re

a 5

Coastal Feed.

A re

a 6

Coastal Feed. Area

7

30n 1 1 n n n n

749 n n n n n n n


74n n n

1 7

86 91n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

7 2 n 217

118n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 4 n 4 2 n 2 n n n n 2 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

8 3 n 314

115n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

1 5 n 5 1 n 1 n n n n 4 n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

1 7 n 7 n n n n n n n 5 n n n n n 1 2 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

1 3 n 3 n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

31 2 n

1 2 1 n 1 n n n n 9 n n n n n ? 3 n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n


534 n 4

15 43 5?n n n n ? n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

91 5 n

1 5 5 n 6 n n n n

1 1 n n n n n 1 2 n n n n n n 5 n n n n n n

720n

201 n 1 n n n n


420n

20n n n n n n n


219 n 9

124

16n n n n 7 n n n n n 1 2 n n n n n n 5 n n n n n n

19 19n

19 2 n 2 n n n n

14n n n n n 3 4 n n n n n n R n n n n n n

16 33n

33n n n n n n n


22n n n n n n

33 60 n

60 n n n n n n n


311 n n n n n

80 16n

16n n n n n n n


90 3 n n n n n

71 38n

38n n n n n n 2

28n n n n n 1 1 2 n n n n n

658 n n n n n

92 11n

11n n n n n n 3 1 n n n n n n n 3 n n n n n

95 10n n n n n

90 25n

25n n n n n n 8 2 n n n n n n n 8 n n n n n

58 40n n n n n

90 20 n

20 n n n n n n16n n n n n n n n

16n n n n n 3

* * 1 n n n n

88 341

34n n n n n n

21n 8 8 n n n 1 n

21n n n n n 3

99 2 n n n n

Note:

* *


n =

less than 0.

5 percent.

Table 4.

(Continued)

--


at

a particular location .w

ill

contact

a certain tarqet within 30 days,

T arget

Land

N. Channel

S.

C hanneI

Channel Islands

N. Sea Ot

t

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Moni ca

Bay

San Ni

c ho

I 6egg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San Miguel Island

Least Tern Coloni

Least Tern Colony

Least Tern Colony

Least Tern Colony

Least Tern Colony

N. Offshore Fe

S. Offshore Fe

An ac apa Island

Santa Barbara

Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa raI

Ion

Is lands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed.

Coastal Feed. Area

Coastal Feed.

Area


ands

ands

Is ange

ange

ie lay

s I and

and

and

on i

e s

ony

1ony

2ony

3ony

4eding

e ding

I I s

I and

mds

nd

ids

Area

1Area

2Area

3Area 4

Area

5Area 6

Area

7

E25

34 17n

1 7 n n n n

47 41n n n n n n n * *


E26

89n 1 1 n n n 1 1 n n n

28n

26n 1 1 1 n 1 1 n n n n n 1

91 7 9 3

E27 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n


S1 74

25 n25n n n n n n 1

20n n n n n 1 1 1 n n n n n

983 n n. n n n

S2 953 n 3 n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

* * 2 n n n n n

S3 93 1 1 n

11n n n n n n

' 5 1 n n n n n n n 5 n n n n n

90 33n n n n n

S4 92 14n

14 n n n n n n

1 1 n n n n n n n n

11 n n n n n 1* * n n n n n

S5 96 8 n R n n n n n n 6 n n n n n n n n 6 n n n n n 1

* * n n n n n

S6

91 1R 1

19n n n n n n

1 2 n

41 41n n n 1 n

13n n n n n 2

93 45n n n n

S7 93 1 5 n

15n n n

10?. 1 2 n

1 5

1 5 n n n S 1 8 n n n n n 1

10 98n n n n

S8 93n n n n n n n n n n n

?5n

24n 1 n n n n 1 n n n n n 1

* * 5 5 2

T1

9 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n14n n n n n n n n


60n n n n n n n


35n n n n n n n

T4 3«n n n 4 n 4 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

34n n n n n n n

T5 67n n n

11n

11n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n n

T6 34n n n

13n

13n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

T7 12n n n

1 5 n

15n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

T8 111 n 1

14n

14n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

T9


T10 4 5 n 5 6 n 6 n n n n 3 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

T11 2 9 n 9 1 n 1 n n n n 6 n n n n n 2 3 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

T1Z n 3 n 3 n n n n n n n 2 n n n n n 1 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

T13 n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n 1 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

T1


Note: **

=



Table

4. (Continued)

--


percent chance) that

an oil spill starting

at


a certain target within 30 days,

Ta rge t

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel

I sIands

Nf.

Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

deyg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San MijueI Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1 Least Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Colony

3 Least Tern Colony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

F a raI Ion Islands

Ba j

a

Is lands

Coastal Feed. Area






Coastal Feed. Area

7


T15 T16 T17 T1« T19 T20 T21 T?? T23 T24 T?5 T?6 T27 T28 T?9 T30 T31 T32 T33 T34 T35 T36 T37 T38 T39

n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n

n n

12

35 n

35 n n n n n

26 n n n n n <, 7 n n n n n 1 n n

n n n

66

60 n

60 n n n n ?.

50 n

n n n 1 > 2 n n n n5

0 6 n n n n

83

20 n

20 n n n n 3 4 n

n n n n n 3 n n n n 84

10 n n n n

94

98 n

98 n n n n

10 3 n n n n 1 n

13 n n n n

32 31n n n n

55

53

10

62 n n n

1 2

1 7 9

1 1 n 2 n n n

44

1 2

36 5 n n n n 7

14 1 4 2

84 4 6 9 n n n

38 6 3 n n 5 n 2 n

1 4 4 1 2 1 n n n n

42

1 7 1

21 2

91

1 2 3 n n n ?0 1 1 n 6 n 4 n 3 1 n 1 1 n n n n

22

70 4 8 3

93 n 1 1 n n n 1 1 n n

1 5 n

14 n n 1 n n n 1 n n n n 1 5 6 2

33 n 5 5 n n n n

54

30 n n n n n n

83 30 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n 1

37 1

78

79 n n n n

219 n n n n n n

44

23 n

35 n n n n n n 1 n n 1 n

79 2

25 ?7 n n

20 7 4 n 3 1 n n

15 6 1 5 n n n n n n

?1 12 n

23 4

90 n 1 1 n n 1 n n n

29

28 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 n n n n n 1

9? 7 8 3

79 n n n n n 1 n n n

1/S

14 1 1 1 1 n n 1 n n n n n 1

5.4 9

16 6

8 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n 163 n n n n n n n n n n n 1

62 n 1 1 n n n 2 n n 1 n n 1 4 7 n n 2 n n n n n 1 3

1 7

29

76 n 1 1 n n n 1 1 n n

15

12 1 2 1 2 n n 2 n n n n 1

47

10

21 7

3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 7 n n n n n n n n n n n 5

48 n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n 1 n 1 1 3 n n 5 n n n n 3 5 4

26

28 n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n

n n n 3 n n 3 n n n n n 2 3 3

11

47 n n n n n n n 1 n n n 6 n 3 1 2 1 2 n n 7 n n n n n 6

10 7

18


n n

n n n 2 n n 3 n n n n n 1 n n 1


n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n

n n

Note:

**

- Greater than 99.5 percent** n



--

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th


at



days,

Target

T40 T41

T42 T43 T44


L2

L3

- LA

L5

L6

L7

L8

L9L10 L11

L12 L13 L14 L15 L16 L17 L18 L19 L20

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

C hanne I

Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Begg Rock

N . Anacapa Island

San

» i g u e

I Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colony

1Least Tern Colony

2Least Tern Colony

3Least Tern Col ony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Fa ra

I I on Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed.

Area

1Coastal Feed. Area

2Coastal Feed. Area

3Coastal Feed. Area

4Coastal Feed. Area

5Coastal Feed.

A rea


18n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n

21n n n n n n n

8 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n12n n n n n n n

1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n



36n n n

27 34 54n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

283 n 3

1 8 9

26 n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

23 1 4 n

144 n 4 n n n n

1 1 n n n n n 2 3 n n n n n n 6 n n n n n n

n 2 n 2 n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

316n

16n n n n n n n

1 2 n n n n n 3 5 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

24 29n

29n n n n n n n


41n n n n n n

n1 4 n

1 4 n n n n n n n 8 n n n n n 3 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

19 45 n

45n n n n n n n

37n n n n n 3 6 n n .n n n n 15

n n n n n n

22 81n

81n .n n n n n n

56n n n n n 8

10n n n n n n 2 n n n n n n

73 31n

31n n n n n n 1

27n n n n n 1 1 1 n n n n n

704 n n n n n

85 1 9 n

19n n n n n n 4 5 n n n n n n 1 4 n n n n n

82 10 n n n n n

93 34n

34n n n n n n

14n n n n n n n n

14n n n n n 3

94n n n n n

87 * * 1

* * n n n n n n

251 4 4 n n n 2 n

241 n n n 5

87 4 n n n n

835

10 15n n n

618 4 n n

11n n n n

176 2 4 n n n n 1

643 n 5 2

962 1 3 n n n

99 2 1 n16n n n n 4 1 1 n n n n n n

99 n n n n

n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n n 4 9 n n n n n n n n n n n n

6 1 n 1 n n n n13 14

n n n n n n57 44n n n n n n n n n n n n

8 n n n n n n n17 17

n n n n n n83 60 n n n n n n n n n n n n

82 n 1 1 n n n 1 1 n n20 n181 1 1 1 n n 2 n n n n n 2

59 7

20 6

66 n n n n n n 1 1 n n n

13 n 7 5 2 1 1 n n 1 n n n n n 1

28 19

18 6

Note:

**


n =

less than 0.

5 percent.

Table

(Continued) --


percent chance) th


at

a particular location wi

ll contact

a certain ta

rget

within 30

da

ys,

Target

Land

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Is lands

C hanneI Islands

N. Se

a Otter Range

S. Sea

Otter Range

Sea

Otter Range

Santa Moni ca

Bay

San Nicholas Island

Begg Rock

N. Anacapa Island

San

Miguel Island

Least

Tern Colonies

Least

Tern Colony

1 Le

ast

Tern Colony

2 Least Tern Co

lony

3 Least

Tern Colony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Coronados Islands

Guadalupe

Is I and

FaraI Ion

Islands

Ba ja

Is lan

ds

Coastal Feed.

Area

1 Coastal Fe

ed.

Area

2 Coastal Feed.

Area

3 Coastal Fe

ed.

Area

4 Coastal Feed.

Area

5 Coastal Feed.

Area 6

Coastal Fe

ed..

Area

7

Hypothetical Sp

ill

Location

L21 n

80

L22 1

L23

L24

1 1

Note

: ** =


= less than 0.

5 percent.

Table 5.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th

at an

oilspill starting

at


a certain land segment

within

3 days.

Land Segment

P1

P2

P3

P4

P5

P6Hypothetical Spill Location

P7

P8

P9

P10 P11

P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P1 7 P1

P19 P20 P21

P22 P23 P24 P25

en

CO

14 15 16

17 19

23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33

n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n

1 n n n 15 n n n n n n n n n n

n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n352 n 2 n n n n n n n n n

n n 811n 2 n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n

n n n n n n n 4 1 n n 1 3 n n

n n n n n n n 1 2 n n 215n n

n n n n n n n n30 1 n n

1 2 n n

n n n n n n n n 9 7 n n11n n

n n n n n n n n 425n n 3 n 1

n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 2 n n

Note

s:

**

= G

reate

r th

an

99

.5

perc

ent;

n =

less

than

0.5

perc

ent,

Ro

ws

with

all

va

lue

s

less

than

0.5

perc

ent

are

n

ot

sh

ow

n.

n n n14

Table 5.

(Continued) Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



within

3 days.

Land Segment

28 29 31 32


P26 P27 P28 P29 P30 P31

P32 P33 P34 P35 P36 P37 P38 P39 PAO P41 P42 P43 P44 P45 P46 P<

,7 P48 P49 P50

20

Notes: **

=


n =


Rows with all

values less than 0.5 percent are not shown.

H 4

5 n

2 20

8 18

Table

5. (Continued) --



at



within

3 days.

Land Segment

17 18 25 26

27 29 30 31 32

53

U

5->

56


P51

P52 P53 P54 P55 P56 P57 P58 P59 P60 P61

P62

P63 P64 P65 P66 P6

7 P68 P69 P70 P7

1 P7

2 P7

3 P74 P75

cn

uiNotes:

**


n =

less

than 0.5 percent.

Rows with all


112 212 n n n

946

22 52

1 712

Table 5. (Continued) Probabilities (expressed as


at



within

3 days.

Land Segment

P76 E1

E2

E3

E4

E5Hypothetical Spill Location

E6

E7

E8

E9

E10

E11

E12 E13 EU E15 £16

E1?

£18 E19 E20 E21

E22

E23 E2

4,

10 11

1 2

13

U 15 16 17 19 28

16

284

26

n n n n23

15 n n n n

n n n n 1 1 n n n n

n n n n 236

26 n n n

n n n n n 344 n n n

n n n n n n4

1 33 n n

n n n n n n14

38 n n

cn

en

Notes: **

=

Greater than 99.5 percent*'

n =


Rows with all


Table 5.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



within

3 days.

Land Segment

E25 E26 E27

S1

S2

S3Hypothetical Spill Location

S4

S5

S6

S7

S8

T1

T2

T3T4

T5

T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 T11

T12

T13 T14

1 2 3 4 5 U 15 16 1 7

18 25 26 27 28

n n n n n n n n 1 3

n n n n n n n n n n

n n304 n n n n n n

n n1 3

542 n n n n n

n n 125 46n n n n n

n n n n51 29n n n n

n n n n 485n n n n

n n n n 2578 n n n

n n n n n 141 24n n

n n n n n n n n 36 39

421 1 3

Notes: **

=


n =


Rows with all


Table 5. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oi

(.s

pill

starting

at



within

3 days.

Land Segment


T15

T16 T17 T18 T1

9 T20 T21

T22 T23 T2A T25

T26 T27 T28 T29 T30 T3

1 T32

T33 T34

T35 T36 T3

7 T38 T39

cn

CO

14 15 16 19 23 24 26 27 28

?9

53

il 32 33

Notes:

**


n =


Rows with all



n n n 6 n n n n n n n n n n

1 n n 5 n n n n n n n n n n

120


n n 10n

30n n n n n n n n n

n n n n 2 1 n n n n 1 n n n

n n n n n n 9 n n 110

n n n

n n n n n n57

2 n n 1 n n n

n n n n n n58 17 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n U n n n n n

n n n n n n 5 n n 315 n n n

n n n n n n10

56 n n n n n n

n n n n n n 21

3 n n 2 n n 4

n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n

n n n n n n n n n 4 3 5 5 n

n n n n n n11 1

9 n n 8 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 7 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n




Table

5. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) th


at


a certain la

nd se

gmen

tuifHirt

T

rt a w c

within

3 days.

Land Segment

T40

T41

T42

T43

T44

LIHypothetical Spill

Location

L2

L3

L4

L5

L6

L?

L8

L9

L10 L11 L12 L13 L14 L15 L16 L17 L18 L19 L20

10 11 13 14 15

16 17 18

19

23

25 26 27 28 30

33 35

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n





612n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n

n n 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n 7 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n



n n n11n n n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n 1 n n n n 2 n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n1 3 n n n n n n n n

n n n 520

1 n n 3 n n n n n n n n

n n n 1 9 1 n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n30 36 n n 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n 512

1 n 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 2 2 n n 2 n n

n n n n n n n n n n 254n n n n n


n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 9 32 n 9 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1

Notes: **

=

Greater th

an 99.5 percent;

n =

less than 0.5

percent.

Rows with al

l values less th

an 0.

5 percent are

not

shown.

Table 6.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



within 10 da

y s.

P1

P2

P3P4

P5

P6

OvO

Land Segment

14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 35 36

Notes: **

=

Greater than 99.5 pe

rcen

t/"

n =

less

than 0.5 percent.

Rows with all values less than 0.5 percent are not shown.


P7

P8

P9

P10 P11

P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P17 P18 P19 P20 P2

1 P22 P^3 P24 P25

5 4 2 n n28 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

829 14 n n 2 n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n

110 544 n n n n


n 119 21n n n n 5 2 n n n 1 n n 2 n n n n

n n 1 1 n n n n 2 2 1 1 n 2 n n 4 2 n n n

n n n n 1 n n n n n1 7

14n 1 2 8 1 2 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 7 22n 1 3

22n 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n n 3/ o

4 8 3 n n

20 n 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 10 9 n 118

1 3 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 632n n

13n n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 5 n 1 9 1 4 1 1 1

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 2 1 5 n 3 3

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 4 n 1 4

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 9 n n n n n n


n n n n n n n 1 n 1 n n22n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n27 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 4 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n 9 n 0 1 n n n

Table

6.

(Continued) P

robabilitie

s

(exp

resse

d

as

pe

rce

nt

ch

an

ce

) th

at

an oilspill

sta

rting

at

a particula

r

loca

tio

n w

ill

conta

ct

a cert

ain

la

nd

se

gm

en

t w

ithin

1

0

da

ys.

La

nd

S

eg

me

nt

Hypoth

etical

Sp

ill

Lo

ca

tio

nP

26

P2

7

P2

8

P2

9

P3

0

P3

1

P32

P53

P3

4

P3

5

P3

6

P3

7

P3

8

P3

9

P4Q

P

A1

P4

2

P4

3

PA

4

PA

S

PA

6

PA

7

P48

PA

9

P50

28

21301nnnn6l12nnnnn23nnnnnn2n

29

n

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

nn

9n

nn

nn

nn

61

31

nnnnnnn15511nnnn92881nnnn925

32

n

nn

nn

nn

3n

nn

nn

nn

18

10

nn

nn

nn

28

31

Note

s:

**

= G

reate

r th

an

99

.5

pe

rce

nt/

' n

= le

ss

tha

n

0.5

p

erc

en

t,

kow

s

with a

ll

valu

es

less

than

0.5

p

erc

en

t a

re

no

t sh

ow

n.


--

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oil spill starting

at



within 10 days.

Land Segment


P51 P52 P53 P5A P55 P56 P57 P58 P59 P60 P6

1 P62 P63

P65 P66 P67 P68 P69 P70 P71 P72 P7

.3 P74 P75

16 17

18

23

? i<

25 26

27 29 30

'41

32 33 34 35 36 37

273

1 4

12

32

11

3 614 2 237 8 n n n n n n n n n n

n n 1 n n21 69 n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n23 55 n 3 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 322 n

11n n

10 5 3 n n

n n n n n n 1 9 1 6 n 1 4 819 1 n

n n n n n n n 2 n 2 n 1 1 112 10 n

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 220 1

Notes:

**


n =



Table 6. (Continued) -- ProoabiIities (expressed as percent chance) that an oil spill starting

at



within 10 days.

Land Segment

P76 E1

E2

E3

E4

E5Hypothetical Spill Location

Eto

E7

E8

E9

E10 £11

E12 £13 £14 E15 E16 E17 E18 E19 E20 E21

£2,2 £23 £24

910

1 1

12 13 14 15 16 1 7

19 23 28

123

46

1 3 132

23

2933 4

927

10

448 32

216

521

42

35

126

49

29

CT>

GO

Notes:

*


n =



Table 6.

(Continued)

--


at



within 10 days.

Land Segment

E25 E26 E2?

S1

S2

S3


S4

S5

S6

S7

S8

T1

T2

T3T4

T5

T6

T7

T8

T9

T10 T11

T1,2 T13 T14

1 2 3 4 5 614 15 16

1 7

13

19 23

25 26

27

28 30

28

1 3

56

37 153 n n 5 n n n n

1670 6 n n n n n n n

231 51n n n n n n n

n n53 31n n n n n n

n n 587 n n n n n n

n 1 9659 n n n n n

n n 3 543 n 1

341 n

n n n n n n n n38 42

Notes: **


n =

less than 0.5 percent,


1 1

26 18 2

329

13

1117

Table 6. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



within 10 days.

Land Sey men t


T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 T21

T22 T23 T2A T25 T26 T27 T28 T29 T30 T31 T32 T33 T3A T35 T36 T37 T38 T39

CT>

Ul

1 A

n n

115

n n

n16

n n

n17

n n

n19

n n

10

21

n n

n23

n n

n24

n n

n25

n n

n26

n n

n27

n n

n28

n n

n29

n n

n30

n n

n31

n

n n

32

n n

n33

n n

n35

n n

n

Notes:

** =

Greater than 99.5 percent/'

n =


Rows with all


71

7 9 n1

1 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n

64

91

9 n 1 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n

210

35 5 n n


n n 3 3 n n 6 A A 5 n 1 n A 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n 6

32 1 n 2

21n n n n

n n n n n n n n 165 A n n 6 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n5

92

0 n n A n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n33

ri n 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 6 n n10 5 n

n

n n n n n n n n 218 1 1 A

23 1 2 n n

n n n n n n n n n1

16

0 n n 5 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 633 n n

1 1 n n 5 1

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 5 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 6 A11 16 n n

n n n n n n n n n1

322 n 1

16 n n n

n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 216 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 5 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 1 7 n





--


at



within 10 days.

Land Segment

T40 T41

T42 T43 T44


L2

L3

L4

L5

L6

L7

L8

L9

L10 L11 L12 L13 L14 L15 L16

L1 7

L1.8

L1 9 L20

910

1 1

12 13 1 4

1 5

16 17 18 1 9

23

25 26 27 28

29 30

32 33 34 35 36

2 91 4

711

1 1 5

12

13

19

Notes: ** =




1 1

36 5 n n 7 n n n n n n n n

84

71

4 n n 1 1 n n n n n n n

n 13

742 n n 4 n n n n n n n

n 132 39 1 n 6 n n n n n n n

n n n n 1 n n1

83

8 n n 1 6 1

n n n n n n n14 77 n n n n n

11 36

16 1 n

Table 7. -- Probabilities (e«pressed as

percent chance)

that

an oilspill starting

at



within 30 days.

Land Segment

P1

P2

P3

PA

P5P6


P7

P8

P9

P10 P11

P12 P13 P14 P15 P16 P1? P1

P19 P20 P21

P22

P2,3

P24 P25

cn

1 4

n1 5

n16

n

17

n18

n19

721

n

22

n23

n24

n

25

n?6

n27

n28

n29

n30

n31

n

32

n

33

n34

n35

n36

n37

n38

n39

n

Notes: **

=


n =

less

than 0.5 percent

Rows with al

l values less than 0.5 percent ar

e not shown.

7 8 4 n n 30 1 n 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

10 33 18n n 3 n n

10n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

21

1545 n n n n

1 9 n

'

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n 11 9

22n n n 1 9 3 n n n 6 n n 3 1 n n n n n n n

n n 1 1 n n n 1 3 3 2 2 n 12n n 8 4 n n n n n n n

n n n n 1 n n n n n20 18n 6 2 9 3 4 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n10 26

1 4 3232 2 n n n 1 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 5504 1 1

201 2 n n 1 2 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n10 10n 1

202

10n n 2 5 2 1 1

n n n n n n n n n n n 633n 1

161 6 1 n 3 6 n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 7 1 21

1 31 4 1 n 5 6 1 1 n

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 6 n 1 6 21 3 1 1 6

1 1 1 1 1

n n n n n n n n n n n 1 6 n 1 5 1 8 2 1 41

1 3 3 1

11

1 n

n n

1 n

n n

n n

n n

28

29

19 n n 3 1

Table 7.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as


at



within 30

days.

Land Segment


P26 P27 P28 P29 P30 P31

P32 P33 P34 P35 P36

P37 P38 P39 P40

P42

P43

P44 P4

5 P46 P47

P49 P50

26 28 29 30 31 32 38 39 57

2631

1012

20 5

l 510

113 222 2

n30 12n 1

2 ? n11 323 3

1 n26 323 3

Notes:

**


n =


Rows with all

values less than 0.5 percent ar

e not shown.

CT>

00

Table 7.

(Continued)

--


at



within 30 days.

Land Segment


P51 P52 P53 P54 P55 P56 P57 P58 P59 P60 P6

1 P62 P63 P64 P65 P66 P67 P68 P69 P70 P71 P72 P73 P74 P75

16 17 18 23 24 25

26 27 ?.B

?9 30 51 32 33 34 35 36

37

33 39

40 43

44 45 57

n n n n n n n n n n n27n n n n n n 1 1 n n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n 1 1 n n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1



n n n n n n n 1 1 3 2 520 n n 1 3 2 5 3 n n n n n

n n n n n n n 1 n n n 225 n n n 1 2 8 8 1 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 2 1 n n n n n 5 7 1 1 1 1 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 2 n 1 2 1 n

n n n n n n n 2 n n 2 213 1 n 1 4 3 7 5 n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 1 n n n n n11 1 3 1 n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 4 6 1 1 2 1 n

n n n n n n n 2 n n 2 1 3 1 n n 2 211 10

1 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 1

4 7142 3

3810 n 4 n n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n 1 n n2370 n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n24 55 n n 4 n 2 n n 2 3 n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 424 n 1

151 4

10 5 7 4 n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 313 n 110 2 6 5 8

213 n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 111n 1

12 1 6 2 1

14 11n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n 110 n 1 9 1 3 2 2 5.

22 1 1 n n n n n n

Notes: **


n =



Table 7.

(Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



within 30 days.

Land Seg ment

910

11

1 2

1 3 U

1 5

16

1 7

18 19 21 23

23 31

P76 El

E2

E3

E4

E5

29 1

523

46


E6

E7

E3

E9

£10 £11

£12 £13 £14 £15 £16 E17 Elg £19 E20 E2

1 E22 E23 E24

nnnnn6 2nn3nnnnnnnnn

nnnnn3nnnnnnnnnnnnn

nnnnnl nnnnnnnnnnnnn

n n

n n

n 32 nnn4nnnnnnnnn

nnnnn9nnn54nnnnnnnn

nnnnnl 21

n 6

8

12

Notes: **


n -



6 3 2 n n25 1 1

3037 7 n n 3 n 2

11 32

14n n 5 n 7

449

341 n n n 4

317

541 n 1 n

14

n 144 37 n n n 8

n 12650 1 n n 9

Table

7. (Continued)

--


oilspill starting

dt



within 30 days.

Land Segment

1 2 3 4 5 6 91 4

15 16 1 7

18 19 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 35 36

E25 E26 E2

7 SI

S2

S3Hypothetical Spill Location

S4

S5

S6

S7

S8

T1

T2

T3

T4

T5

T6

T7

T

8

T9

T1

0

T1

1

T1.

2 T

13

T

14

33

1 3

57

n n n n n n n-I

Q

J O 206 n n 7 1 2 n n n n

n n n n n n n 16 71

7' n n 1 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n 332 52

1 n n n 5 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 54 33 n n n 5 n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 587n n n 3 n n n n

n n n n n n n n 110 66 9 n n 3 n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n 3 543n n 1 1

352 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n38 42

3 2 2 1 1 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

9 4 5 1 3 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

12 26 192 3 3 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

7 3 3 312 10 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n 436 26n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n 115 143 n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n 1 110

n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n10 n n n n n n n n n n n


n n n n n n 2 n n n n 1 n n n n n n




n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n, n n n

Notes: **

=


= less than 0.5

percent.

Rows with al

l values less than 0.5 percent are

not shown.

Table

7. (Continued) -- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



within 30 days. Hypothetical Spill Location

T15 T16 T17 T18 T19 T20 T21

122 T23 T24 T25 T26 T2? T28 T29 T30 T31

T32 T33 T34 T35 T36

T3,7 T38 T39

10

Land Segment

U 15 16 1 7

19

21 23

24 25 26

27 23 29

30 31 32 33 34 35 36

37

38 39

40 42

43

44

45 57

Notes: **


n =



922 12n

1 3 1 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

750

211 1 n 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

21

135 5 1 n38 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n 3 3 n n 7 6 6 8 n10

1 4 3 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n1

137 2 3 2

22 1 1 n n n 1 n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n 267 5 1 n 7 1 2 n n 1 3 1 n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n60

20 n n 6 1 1 n n 2 3 n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n35n n 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n1

1 n n157 n n n n n n 1 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n 5222 4 4


n n n n n n n n n1

160 n n 7 n 2 n n 2 4 n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n 635 n n

1 5 1 5 6 1 6 4 n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 6 1 n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 2 6 513 21n n 1 2 1 3 2 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n1 3

23 n 1

18 1 6 n n 2 7 1 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 1 1 n n n n n 1 2 n n n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 n 1 2 320 n n 1 3 2 6 5 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n 1 n n 1 1 8 n n n 2 1 5 5 n n n 1 n n

n n n n n n n n'

n n 3 n 1 4 314 1 n 2 7 2 4 3 n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 113 17 1 1 1 1 n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n 2 3 n n 2 4 3 n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n. n n n n n n n n n 1 1 1 6

Table

7. (Continued)

-

GO

Land Segment

910 11 12 13 16 17 18 19

23

It,

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 57

- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) that an oilspill starting

at



within 30 days.

T40

T41

T42

T43 T44

L1

n n

n n

n 9

n n

n n

n 1

1n

n n

n n

1 5

16


L2

L3

L4

L5

L6

L7

L8

L9

61 nnnnnn

1 nnnnnnn

Innnnnnn

7nnnnnnn

1211

n n

n n

n

n 1

6 n

L10 L11

L12

L13 L14 L15 L16 L17 L18 L19 L20

12 n 1 n n 9 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

3 1 1 n nUn n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 1 n n n20 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

1 3

40 9 n n 9 2 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

949

17n n 1 7 n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n 138 43n n


1 133 40 1 n


n n n n 1 n n 121 41n 5 1 6 2 1 n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n16 77n 1 n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 6 n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n n n 8 n n n n n n n n n n n

n n n n n n n n n11 36n 1

181 5 n n 2 A 1 1 n

n n n n n n n n n 2U. n 2

131 5 3 2

127 n n n

Note

s:

**

= Greater th

an 99.5 percent;

n =

less

than 0.5

percent.

Rows wi

th al

l values less than 0.5 percent are

not

show

n.

Table 7.

(Continued) --


at



within 30

days.

Land Segment

57L21

L22

L23 L24

n n

n 1


Notes: **

=


n =


Rows with all


Taole 6.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or

more spills* and the expected number of

spills (mean)

occurring and contacting targets over the expected proJuction life of the lease area* most likely volume

scenario.

Target

La no

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel Islands

N.

b e a

Otter Ra

n.je

S. Sea Otter Ranje

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Uegg Rock

N. Anacapa

San riiguel

Least

Least

Least

Least

Least Tern Co

lony

4f J.

Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island

Santa jar bar a Island

C oronados Islands

Guadalupe Island

Faralion Islands

baja Islands

Coastal Feed.

Feed.

F eed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.Is land

i gue I

Island

Tern .Colonies

Tern Colony

1 Tern Co lony

2 Tern Colony

3

Coastal

Coast a I

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Coast a I

Area

Area

Area

Area

Area

Area

Area

-------

MI i 1 n

i n

3 days

PROPOSED

EXISTING

AND

IMPORT S

Prob

1 5 9 2

10n n n A 1 n n 5 2 n 1 n n 2 2 n 1 n n n n A 3 A 8 1 1 1

Mean

U.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

J.O

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Prob

96 693

70n A A 5 1 1 9

32 31A

28n n 6 n

161 n n 72 n

68 6A 15 77n 9 n

Mean

3.2

1 .2

0.0

1 .2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

3. A

3. A

O.Q

0.3

0.0

0.0

3.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 .3

0.0

1 .1

1 .0

0.2

1 .5

0.0

0.1

0.0

PROPOSED

EXISTING

------- w

1 1 n

i n

ID aay

PROPOSED

EXISTING

AND

& IMPORT

Prob

96 715

73n A A 9 2 2 9

35 32A

29n n 9 2

162 n n

70 n69 65 19 79 1

111

Mean

3.3

1.2

0.1

1 .3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

O.A

O.A

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 .2

0.0

1 .2

1.0

0.2

1 .6

0.0

0.1

0.0

Prob

26'

1 1 2

13n n n 5 1 1 n 6 3 n 2 n n A A 1 1 n n n n 7 A 6 9 1 3 2

Mean

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

IMPORTS

Prob

* *

32 t>836 8

1 2

1 A A 3

1 5

51 33A

29 n n

1 A 2

213 n n

80 n

30

66

2A 78 1

211

Mean

5.5

1.7

0.1

1 .3

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.7

O.A

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 .6

0.0

1 .6

1.1

0.3

1.5

0.0

0.2

J.O

s -- ----

PROPOSED

EXISTING

---- - witnin

JLI

aays -- --

PROPOSED

EXISTING

PROPOSES)

AND

EXISTING

& IMPORT

Prob

* *

8A 885 6 8

12 185 A

1 5

5A 35A

31n n

1 7 5

223 n n

78n

82 68 2880 2

2A3

Mean

5.7

1.8

0.1

1.9

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.8

O.A

0.0

O.A

3.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.5

0.0

1 .7

1 .1

0.3

1 .6

0.0

0.3

0.0

Prob

33 1 1 2

14n n n 5 2 1 1 7 A n 2 n n 6 6 1 1 1 n n n 7 A 6 103 A 3

Mean

O.A

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.u

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

IMPORTS

Prob

* *

87 8

88 28 833 15 117

23 59

35A

30 1 1

29

21 29 A 3 n82n

82 69

26 78 11 247

Mean

6.8

2.1

0.1

2.2

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.9

O.A

0.0

O.A

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 .7

0.0

1.7

1.2

0.3

1.5

0.1

0.3

0.1

& IMP OKI

Prob

tk * 89 10 9027 8

32 20 138

23

62 38 4

311 2

33

26 30 5 4 n30 n83

70

30 80 13 27

10

Mean

7.1

2.d

0.1

2.3

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

1.U

0.5

O.U

o.<*

O.J

O.U

0.4

0.3

0.4

O.J

O.U

O.J

1 .0

O.J

1.6

l.t

O.i

1.0

0.1

0.3

0.1

Note:

n =

less than J.5 percent^ **

= greater than 99.5 percent.

TaDle V.

-- Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of

one or

more spills/ and the expected number of

spills (mean)

occurring and contacting land segments over the expected production life of

the lease area/ most likely

volume scenario.

cr»

------- Within

3 days

PROPOSED

EXISTING

AND

IMPORTS

Proo n n n n n n n n n ri n n I 1 1 n 1 n n n n .; 3 n n 1 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.0

u.o

O.u

U.O

O.J

0.0

0.0

0.0

U.J

u.o

U. 0

u.o

0.0

o.u

0.0

U.J

0.0

0.0

u.o

O.J

0.3

u.o

u.u

u.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

J.U

0.0

0.3

U.O

U.J

Prob

11 24 16n 1 n n n 1 2 6

12 24 32 26 4 7 n 9 n 2

41 44 1 n 9 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

n.4

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.6

0.0

0.0

0. 1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

PROPOSED

EXISTING

--- --

within

lu fl

ays

--------

PROPOSED

EXISTING

PROPOSED

AND

EXISTING

& IMPORT

Prob

10 23 15n 1 n n n 1 2 6

13 25 33 274 7 n 9 n 3

43 46 1 n

10n n n n n n n

Mean

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.6

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Hrob n n n n n n n n n n n 1 4 2 1 n 2 n n n 1 7 4 1 n 3 1 1 n n n n n

Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

O.J

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

IMPORTS

Prob

25 33 274

104 1 1 1 5 9

22 48 51 345

201

151 6

47 472 1

201 1 n n n n n

Mean

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.6

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

--- witnin

.su

days --- ---

PROPOSED

EXISTING

PROPOSED

AND

EXISTING

& IMPORT

P r oo

23 31 25 4 9 4 1 1 1 5 9

23

49 52 355

221

15 1 750 49 3 122

1 2 n n n n n

Mean

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.7

0.7

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Prob n n n n n n n n n n n 1 4 3 1 n 2 n 1 n 2 7 4 1 n 3 1 2 1 1 n 1 n

Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

IMPORTS

Prob

30 36 307

20 189 1 1 6

10 26 51 54 365

26 1

27 2 848

48 6 1

233 6 4 7 1 1 n

Mean

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.7

0.8

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.7

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

& IMPORT

Prob

28

34 29 7

19

1 7 9 1 1 6

1026 53

55

36 527 1

23 2 95250 8 2

25 4 8 4 8 1 1 1

Mean

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.7

0.8

0.5

0.1

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.7

0.7

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Lano

Segment

1 J

1 1

1 2

1 3

1 4

1 5

16

1 f

1 3

19

21 23

24 25 26

2?

2o

29

3J

31

Id

S"j

3o

f>t

56

3V

Note:

n =

less than J.5 pe

rcen

t*"

**

= jreater than 99.5 percent. Segments with less than 0.5 percent probability

of one or

01 ore contacts within 30 days are not shown.

Table 10. -- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance) of one or more spills/ and the expected number of spills (mean)

occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of

the lease area/ conditional mean volume

scenario.

T arget

Land

N. Channel Islands

S .

C hanne I

Islands

C h anneI Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Begg Rack

N. Anacapa

San M

i g u eI

Least Tern

Tern

Least

Least

Least

Least

Island

Island

Colonies

Colony

1 Tern Colony

2 Tern Colony

3 Colony

4Tern

N. Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


Co ronado s Islands

Guadalupe Island

F a ra 11 DO Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed. Area






Coastal Feed. Area

7

-------

w i

t n

i n

;> aays

PROPOSED

EXISTING

AND

IMPORTS

Prob

48 31 10 39n n n 11 6 4 2

15 8 n 7 n n 18 182 3 n n n n U U 11 312 7 4

Mean

0.7

0.4

0. 1

0.5

o.n

0.0

0.0

0. 1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0. 1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

D.O

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.u

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.0

0. 1

0.0

Prob

96 69 370 n 4 4 5 1 1 932 314

28n n 6 n

161 n n

72n

68

64 1 5

77n 9 n

Mean

3.2

1 .2

0.0

1 .2

0.0

U.U

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.3

0.0

1 .1

1 .0

0.2

1.5

0.0

0.1

0.0

PROPOSED

EXISTING

-------

w i

PROPOSED

& IMPORT

Prob

97 76 13 80 n 4 4157 5

10 40

.364

33 n n

23 18

164 n n

59n

72 68 24 842

155

Mean

3.7

1 .4

0.1

1 .6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.9

0.0

1.3

1.2

0.3

1 .8

0.0

0.2

0.0

Prob

72 38 12 46 n n n 1 5

1 1 6 3

22 1 1 n 8 n n

26 274 4 1 n n n

22 15 16

33 313 11

Mean

1.3

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.1

i n

i n

iu aays --------

EXISTING

PROPOSED

AND

EXISTING

IMPORTS

Prob

* *

826

836 8

12 144 3

15 51 334

29n n

142

213 n n

80n

80 66 24 781

211

Mean

5.5

1 .7

0.1

1.8

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.7

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

1.6

0.0

1.6

1.1

0.3

1.5

0.0

0.2

0.0

-------

w i

PROPOSED

i, IMPORT

Prob

* *

87 17 90 5 8 12 25 159

16 61 40 5

35n n

36 29 227 1 n

67n

84 71 35 854

31 12

Mean

6.3

2.1

0.2

2.3

0.1

0. 1

0. 1

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.9

0.5

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.0

1 .1

0.0

1.8

1.2

0.4

1.9

0.0

0.4

0.1

Prob

82 41 13 48 n n n16 1 5 8 4

23 14n 9 1 1

32

38 5 5 4 n n 124 16 17 35 1016 17

Mean

1.7

0.5

0.1

0.7

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

EXISTING

PROPOSED

AND

EXISTING

IMPORTS

Prob

* *

87 8

88 288

33 15 117

23 59 354

301 1

29

21 29 4 3 n

82n

82 69 26 78 11 247

Mean

6.8

2.1

0.1

2.2

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.9

0.4

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 .7

0.0

1 .7

1.2

0.3

1.5

0.1

0.3

0.1

& IMPORT

Prob

* *

92 19 93 258 30 27 23 14 25 67

445

362 3

50 51 318 6 n

701

86 73 37 86 19 36 23

Mean

7.9

2.5

0.2

2.7

0.3

0.1

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.1

0.3

1.1

0.6

0.0

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.0

1.2

0.0

2.0

1.3

0.5

1.9

0.2

0.4

0.3

Note

: n

= less than 0.5 percent; **

= greater than 99.5 percent.

Table 11

. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance) of one or

more spills* and the

expected number of spills (m

ean)

occurring and

contacting land segments over th

e expected production life of th

e lease area* conditional mean

volume scenario.

00

---- - W1

PROPOSED

tnin

i aays

EXISTING

AND

IrlP

ORTS

Prob n n n n n n n n n n n 1 5 5 4 n 3 n n n 1

16 112 1 5 2 2 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.0

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

D.O

0.0

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

D.O

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

3.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Proh

1 1

24 16n 1 n n n 1 2 6

12 24 32 264 7 n 9 n 2

41 441 n 9 n n n n n n n n n

Mean

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.5

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

PROPOSED

EXISTING

------- w

1 1 n

i n

iu aays --------

PROPOSED

EXISTING

PROPOSED

AND

EXISTING

& IMPORT

Prob 8

1B 11n 1 n n n 1 2 6 13 28 35 295 9 n 8 n 3

50 513 1

132 2 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.7

0.7

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Prob n n n n n n n n n n n 4

11 10 6 n 7 n 2 n 422 146 2

115 8 1 n 1 1 n n n

Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

IMPORTS

Prob

25 33 274

104 1 1 1 5 9

22 48 51 345

201

151 6

47 472 1

201 1 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.7

0.4

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.6

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-- witnin iu

aays - ---

PROPOSED

EXISTING

PROPOSED

AND

EXISTING

& IMPORT

Prob

18 24 193 7 3 1 1 1 5 9

25 53 55 385

251

141 9

58 558 3

286 9 1 n 1 1 n n n

Mean

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.1

0.3

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.9

0.8

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Prob n n n n n n n n n n n 4

12 11 6 n 8 n 4 n 524 169 2

13 8 131 1 3 5 1 4 3

Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0. 2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

IMPORTS

Prob

30

36 307

20 189 1 1 6

10 26 51 54 365

261

272 8

48 48 6 1

23 3 6 n n 4 7 1 1 n

Mean

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.7

0.8

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.7

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

& IMPORT

Prob

22 26 225

15 138 1 1 6

10

28 56 58 395

311

282

12 59 56 143

32 10 171 1 7

112 4 4

Mean

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.8

0.9

0.5

0.1

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.9

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Land

Segment

1 2 3 4 5 6 910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39

Note: n

= less than 0.

5 percent^ **

=

greater than 99.5 percent

of one or more contacts within 30

days ar

e not

shown.

Segments with less than 0.5 percent probability

Appendix A

79

QSJA Model

Southern California

Figure A-l. -- Map showing the locations of northern and southernChannel Islands: crosshatching indicates area! extent The target "Channel Islands" is represented by both areas combined.

80

36 OSTA Model

Southern California

Figure A-2. -- Map showing the locations of northern and southern sea otter ranges: crosshatching indicates areal extent. The target "sea otter range" is represented by both areas combined.

81

OSTA Model

Southern Calffornla

Figure A-3. -- Map showing the locations of five targets indicates areal extent.

crosshatching

82

OSTA Mode

Southern California

Figure A-4. -- Map showing the locations of least tern colony #1-4:crosshatching indicates area! extent. The target "least tern colonies" is represented by all areas combined.

83

32'

30°

OSTA Model

Southern CalIfornla

Anacapa Island

ANGELES

Santa BarbarlaN. Offshore Feeding Area

S. Offshore Feeding Area

luadalupe Island

Figure A-5. -- Map showing the locations of eight targets: crosshatching indicates areal extent.

84

3-1- e _

32

OSTA Mode

Southern California

Figure A-6. -- Map showing the locations of coastal feeding areas #1-7: crosshatching indicates area! extent.

85

Appendix B

86

TAB

LE B

-l. P

RL

fBA

Bll

lTll

S

THA

T AN

U

1L

SU

LL

S

TA

RT

ING

IN

TH

E

WIN

TE

R

SE

AS

ON

AT

A P

AR

TIC

UL

AR

L

3C

AT

IUN

M

ILL

C

ON

TA

CT

A

CE

RT

AIN

T

AR

GE

T

WIT

HIN

30

DA

YS

.

PI

P2

P3

P4

P5

P6

P7

P

B

P9

P

10 P

ll

P1

2

P1

3

P14

P15

Pit

, P

17

P1B

P

I 9

P20

P21

P

22

P2

3

P24

P2

5

00

LAN

DH

. C

HA

NN

EL

IS

LA

ND

S

S.

CH

AN

NtL

C

HA

NN

EL

ISL

AN

CS

N

. S

tA

OT

TE

R

KA

NG

E

S.

SE

A

UIT

EK

K

AN

GI

fFA

D

TT

ff-

RA

NC

E

f>*M

A

MD

N1C

/, t-

AY

SA

N

NIC

Hm

, I

H G

h

fCK

N

. J.N

AC

AI*

*

K

H1G

UJL

L

EA

ST

T

EkN

L

EA

ST

T

ER

N

LE

AS

T

TE

RN

C

OLO

NY

L

EA

ST

T

tRN

C

OL

ON

Y

LE

AS

T

TtR

N

CO

LO

NY

N

. O

FF

SH

OR

t FF

S

. O

FF

SH

OR

E

F A

NA

CA

PA

IS

LA

NI

SA

NTA

B

AR

BA

RA

C

OR

ON

AO

nS

IS

LA

ND

S

CU

AD

AL

UP

E

ISL

AN

D

FA

RA

LL

ON

IS

LA

ND

S

BA

JA

ISL

AN

DS

C

OA

ST

AL

F

EE

D

CO

AS

TA

L

FE

ED

C

OA

STA

L F

FE

H

CO

AS

TAL

FE

ED

C

OA

ST

AL

F

EE

D

CO

AS

TA

L

FE

ED

. A

RE

A

CO

AS

TA

L

FE

LU

. A

RE

A

LAN

DS

LAN

DS

rs kAN

GE

*AN

GI

::E :-AY

ISLA

M

.AN

DLA

NL

LD

N1

E?

LON

Y

1LO

NY

2

LDN

Y

3LO

KY

*

CFD

IKG

ED

IN

G[/

ISL

AN

DA

ND

SkN

DID

S AR

EA

1

AR

EA

2

AR

EA

3

AR

EA

4

AR

EA

5

AR

EA

6

AR

EA

7

42

3 N2

3 H N N N 1 I N

15 N N N N N 4 4 N N N N N N 2 N N N N N N

22

6 N2

6 N N N N N N N14 N N N N N 4 8 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

46

71 N

71 * N N N N N N

67 N N N N N 4 6 N N N N N N

29 >J N N N N N

59

35 N

35 N N N N K N N

34 N N N N N 2 I N N N N N N

59 2 N N N N N

t»B

91 N

91 N N N N N N N

1C N N N N N 1 1 N N N N N N

62

41 N N N N N

71

56 5

60 M M N N

14 7 N 1 N M N N N ib 10

29 2 N N M N 8

53 1 V N N M

3b

37

24

60 N N N 1

15

lh

N N N N N N N73

29 H

15 N N N N 1 < 1 1 N N H

65

11 ?5 16 M M N

?1 17 b N N 1 M N N

. N

41 13 4 6 N N N N N 1 J33 N 7 6

83 fc

12

20 N N N

39 V 5 N N 4 N 1 N N

IB6 2 5 N N N N N 1

42

10 N

16 3

93 3 1 4 N N ^

47 2 1 N M 5 N 1 N K 6 2 1 1 N N N N N N

tl

44 N

10 1

69 N N 1 N N N 1 1 N N N 6 N 6 N N I 2 N N 1 N N N N N 2

33 N

24

13

b2 N N N N N N N 1 H N N21 N

21 N N 1 1 N N 1 N N N N N N

bl N

15 7

56 N N N N N N N 1 N N N 7 N 7 N N 1 2 N N 2 M N N N N N

21 N

1H 19

46 N N N N N N N 1 N N N 6 N 6 N N 1 2 N N 1 N N N N N N

17 N

11

20

41 M M M N ^ M N N N N N 6 N 6 N N N 2 M N 3 M N N M N N

22 1

10

12

1 4 N 4 N N K N 1 1 N 2 N N N N N 3 8 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

53

9 N3

9 N N N N 2 1 N2

7 N N N N N1

316 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

1 3 N 3 M N M N 2 1 H 1 N N N N N 81

5 N N N M N N N N N N N N N

1 N N 1 N N N N 2 2 N N N N N N N 91


13 lb N

IBH H N N 18

20 M 1 N N N N N

73

3UM N N H H N N N N N N N N

6 1 N 1 N N N N12 9 N N N N N N N

52

44 N N N N N n H M N N N N M

31

24 1

24 N N N N

45

34 N N N N N N N

99


2B N 1 1 N N N N

44

49 N N N N N N N

99


10 N N N N N N N

20

IBN N N N N N N

76


35

22 7

29 N N N N

45

22 N 1 N N N N ~N 68

32 N 2 N N N N N N N N N N 2

NO

TE

: *+

=

GK

EA

TE

R

THA

N

99

.5

PE

RC

EN

T;

N =

LI

SS

T

HA

N

0.5

K

K'C

tNT

.

TAB

LE B

-l.

(Continued)

--P

RL

BA

BIL

IT

IIS

1H

AT

AN

i-

IL

SP

ILl

ST

AR

TIN

G

IN

1 HE

W

INIb

k

SE

AS

UN

AT

A P

AR

TIC

UL

AR

LO

CA

TIL

N

KIL

L

CO

NT

AC

T

A C

tKT

AIN

T

AR

GP

T

WIT

HIN

3

0

DA

YS

.

P26 P27 P2fa P29 P3C P31 P3? P33 P34

PJfc P37 P3B P3S P40 P4

1 P4<?

P«*4

P46 P47 P4B

P50

LAN

DN

. C

HA

NN

EL

IS

LA

ND

S

S.

CH

AN

NE

L

ISL

AN

DS

C

HA

NN

EL

IS

LA

ND

S

N.

SE

A

ClT

TEK

R

AN

GE

S

. S

EA

LI

T U

K

KA

NG

E

SEA

O

TT

ER

R

AN

CF

S

AN

TA

MO

NIC

A

HA

Y

SA

N

NIC

HO

LA

S

ISL

AN

L

PF

tG

Rl'C

K

N.

AN

AC

AP

A

ISL

AN

D

S/N

M

I C

UE

I IS

LA

ND

CO

LE

AS

T T

ER

N

CO

LO

NIE

S

00

LE

AS

T

TE

RN

C

OID

NY

1

LE

AS

T

TE

KN

C

OLO

NY

2

LE

AS

T

TE

RN

C

OLO

NY

3

LE

AS

T

TE

RN

C

OL

ON

Y

4 N

. O

FF

SH

OR

E

FE

ED

ING

S

. O

FF

SH

OR

E

FE

ED

ING

A

NA

CA

PA

IS

LA

ND

S

AN

TA

BA

RB

AR

A

ISL

AN

D

CO

RQ

NA

DG

S

ISL

AN

DS

G

UA

DA

LU

PE

IS

LA

ND

F

AR

AL

LO

N

ISL

AN

DS

B

AJA

IS

LA

ND

S

CO

AS

TA

L

FE

ED

. A

RE

A

1 C

OA

ST

AL

F

EE

D.

AR

EA

2

CO

AS

TA

L

Ft

ED

. A

RE

A

3 C

OA

ST

AL

F

EE

D.

AR

EA

*

CO

AS

TA

L

FE

ED

. A

RE

A

> C

OA

SIA

L

FE

ED

. A

RE

A

6 C

OA

ST

AL

F

EE

D.

AR

EA

7

38 1 7 6 N N N N

55

?2 N N N N N N N

92

34 N 3 N N N N N N N N N N 1

39 N 7 7 N N N N

6 3

i> 1 N N N N N N N

95

36 N 2 N N N N N N N N N N 2

4 N N N N N N N 7 N N N N N N N N 19

>3 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

1 N N N N N N N 1 N N N N N N N N 169 N N N N N N K N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N ^ N31

N N N N N N N N N N N N N

1 M N N N N N M I N M SJ S N N N M 1f)

8 N N N N N N M M N N N N N

N (4 t, N tJ 14 \i N N N N N N N N N N N79 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

J3 1t>

J67 N N N J

?? 10 N M N N N N N48 ?5N 13 N' M N K M N 1 N N 1 6

32 N

4fc

46 N N N N

20 4 N N N N N N N

46

30 N

13 N N N N N N 1 N N 1 5

1? N 3 3 N N N N 5 N N N N N N N N16

51 N 1 N N N N N N N N N N 3

J N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N7

? N N N N N N N N N N N N 1

1 N N N N N N M N N N N N N N N N N9


N N N N N N N 4 N N N N N N N N N N4


N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N6


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> 21 N21

N N N N N N N 14 N N N N N 3 3 K N N N N N N N N N N N N

223 N

23 N N N N N N N 10N N N N N 2 5 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

44 71N

71N N H H H H N

f,6 N N N N N 2 2 N M N N N N

21N N N N N N

It

14N 14 N N N N N N N 13N N N N N 1 N N N N N N N

bl 1 N N N N N

97 eh N be N N N N N N N 2 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

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422 V 7 3

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20 5 1 4 N N N N N H

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48 ? 1 N N N N N H N 4 2 N N N N N N N N

51 41N

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28 N

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56 N

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60 N I 1 N N N N 2 N N M N N N N N 3 3 N N N N N N N N N 9 H

27

23

42 N 1 1 N N N N 2 N N N N N N N N 3 2 N N 1 N N N N N N 6 N 11 25

29 N N N M M N N N N N V M ^ M «4 N N 1 N M 1 M M N M N N 6 N 9

17

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1 3 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

2 33 N33 N N N N 1 1 N

21N N N N N 10 6 N N N N H N N N N N N N N

N M N N N N N N N N H N N N N N N 5 9 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 310 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

9 13 N 13 H N N N 14 13 H H N H N N N 71 27 N N N N N N 14 N N N N N N

3 N N N N N N N 5 4 N M N N N N N4

53

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27

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23N N N N

37

27 N N N N N N N

97

31N N N N N N N N N N N N N

22N N N N N M N

35

43 N N N N N N N

96


5 N N N N N N N 14

IVN N N N N N M

72


29

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90

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NO

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: **

= G

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99

. 5

PE

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EN

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LE

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0.5

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T.

TAB

LE

B-4

. (C

on

tin

ued

)

PR

IIB

AB

Il I

IIF

S

THA

T A

N

D1L

S

PIL

L

ST

AR

TIN

G

IN

TH

L

AU

TU

MN

S

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ON

AT

A P

AR

TIC

UL

AR

L

OC

AT

ION

M

ILL

C

ON

TA

CT

A

CE

RT

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AR

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T

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HIN

3

0

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YS

.

P26

P?

7

P26

P29

P3

0

P31

P

3?

P

33

P34

P3

5

P36

P37

P38

P3

9

P40

P4

1 P

42

P

43

P44

P45

P4

6

P47

P4B

P

*9

P50

LAN

DN

. C

HA

NN

EL

IS

LA

ND

S

S.

CH

AN

NE

L

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DS

C

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NN

EL

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LA

ND

S

K.

SE

A

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TE

R

RA

NC

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A

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LA

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PE

GG

R

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FS

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GU

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OA

ST

AL

F

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D.

AR

EA

6

CO

AS

TA

L

FE

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. A

RE

A

7

?5 1 4 5 N N N N

42

23 N N N N N N N

89

37 N 1 N N N N N N N N N N I

32 N 2 2 N N N N

55

19 N N N N N N N

92


1 N N N N M M N 3 N N N N N N N N1

8S

4 N M N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N K N N N N N N5




N N N N N N N N N N M N N 4 N M N 149%

N N N N M N N M M N N N N



35 N 77 77 N M N N

27

15 N N N N N M N

52

30 N

43 N N N M N N M N N N 7

25 N

36

3fc N N N N

32 8 N N N N N N N

61

34 N 3 N N N N N N N N N N 2

4 N N N N N N N1

0 N N N N N N N N19








N M N N N N M ft N M N N N M M M N N M M N N N >| N M M N N N N N

60 N

62

62 N N N 1

1 4 6 N N N N N N N

22

15 N

22 N N N N N N 1 N N 8

28

41 N

17

17 N N N N

12 1 N N N N N N N

IB 31 N 1 N N N N N N N N N N

15





N N N N N N M N N N N N N N N N N N6


N M N M N N N N N N N N N N N M N N 6 N N N N N N N N H H N M N



60 N 7 7 N N N N B 1 N N N N M N N

12

11 N 2 N N N N N N N N N

12

39



4*

NO

TE

: +

* =

GR

EA

TE

R

THA

N

99

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PE

RC

EM

T ;

N

= IE

SS

TH

AN

0

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PE

RC

EN

T.

TAB

LE

B-4

. (C

on

tin

ue

d)

PK

lib

Ab

l L

IT I

TS

T

HA

I A

N

!>1L

S

PIL

L

ST

AR

TIN

G

IN

1HL

A

UTU

MN

S

EA

SU

NA

T A

PA

RT

ICU

LA

R

LO

CA

TIO

N

MIL

L

CO

NT

AC

T

A C

ER

TA

IN

TA

RG

ET

W

ITH

IN

30

L

AY

S.

P51

P5

3

P5

4

P5

5

P5G

P

57

P5

8

P59

P6

0

P6

1

E'6

2 P

63

P64

P65

P6

6

P67

P66

P70

P71

P7

2

P7

3

H74

P

75

P

76

CO

LAND

N. CHANNEL

S. CHANNEL

CHANNEL ISLANDS

N. SEA OTTtR RANGE

S. SEA UTTER RANGE

SEA OTTEK RANGE

SANTA MONICA HAY

SAN N1CHOL

BECG ROCK

N. ANACAPA

SAN HIGLEL

LEAST TERN

LEAST TERN

LEAST TERN COLONY

LEAST TERN COLONY

LEAST TERN COLONY

N. OFFSHORE FEi

S. OFFSHORE FEI

ANACAPA ISLAND

SANTA BARBARA

CCRDNADDS 1SL

GUADALUPE ISL

FARALLON ISLA

BAJA ISLANDS

COASTAL FEED.

COASTAL FLED.

COASTAL FLED.

COASTAL FEED.

COASTAL FEED.

COASTAL FEED. AREA

COASTAL FEED. AREA

LA

ND

S1

AN

DS

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ER

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NG

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1

AR

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2

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EA

3

AR

EA

4

AR

EA

5

AR

EA

6

AR

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7

25 N N N N K N N N K N M N N N N N N


1 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N30 N N N N N N N N N N N N 1

N N N N N N <4 M 1 H H M M M N N N N1

9 N S N N N N M N N N M H N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N K N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N M M N M N N N N M N M M M N N <t N N M N N N M H M N M

47 N N N N N N N 3 N N N N N N N N 4 9 N N N N N N N N N 1 N 6

41

41 N N M N M S N M N N N N N N N N N 2 N N N N N N N N N 1 ^ N

45

*. N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N15 N N N N N N N N N N N N

12

1 N N N N N M N N N N N N N N N N N1


N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N Nl N N 2 N N N N N N N N N N N N N


N N N N ft N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N M N N N N

28 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 4 N N 2 N N N N N N 3 N 3

30

6 M N M N M M n H N M M M <4 .M N M N 9 N S| 1 N M N M N N M N H 6

3 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 4 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

12 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 4 N N 1 N N N M N N 2 N 2

10

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N M N N N N N N

87

33 N

33 N N N

14 5 4 N N N N N N N

16 3

17 N N N N N N

14

72 N N N N

9« I N 1 N N N

99 1 N N ft H H N N N 2 N N N N N N N N N

++ N N N N

*+N N N N N M N H N N H H H N N * N N H N N N H N N N N

** N N N

85 N N N N N N 2 N N N N N N N N N 1 N N N N N N N N N 2

68 N

21 6

75 N N N N N N 1 1 N N N M N N N N 2 1 N M N N N N N N 1

41 9

26

11

52 N 1 1 N N H N 1 N N N N N N N N 2 N N M N N N N N M M

16

14

2B 11

36 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1 N N N N N N

14

37

19 5

33 N N N M N M N 77 11 N N M M N 'N N

92

57 N N N N N N N M N N N M N

NOTE: *+ =

GREATER THAN 99.5 PERCEMT; N

= LESS THAN 0.5 PLKCENT.

TAB

LE

B-5

. --

P

KIJ

BA

B1L

11 I

t S

TH

AT

A

N

Vll

SP

ILL

S

TA

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ING

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T

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W

INT

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S

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N

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A

PA

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LA

R

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T1

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W

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C

ON

TA

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A

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L

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EN

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LA

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P

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6

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18

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P2

0

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1

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2

P2

3

P2

4

P2

5

15 16 17 IB iv 20

2t.

27

2b

29 30

31 32 33

3«>

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1 N N N N 3 N N N r. f. N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N 2 N N N N N ts N N N N N N N N N N

16 6 1 N N

23 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

2523 3 N M 6 N N M N N N N N N N N N N N N N

b2552 1 M I N N N N N N M N M M N N N N <4 M

I 2 3b

12 N N N 1 <* 3 N N N H N N 1 N N N N N

N N 1 1 N N N 2 2 3 N 1 N 171 N b 2 N M N N

N N 1 1 3 N N N 1 1If

i 9 N11

1 5 4 4 M M <4 N

N N 1 N 2 N N N 1 118 23 1 5 315 2 2 N N N N

N N N N N N N N N 110

66 3 1 N 9 N N N N 4 N

N N N N N N N N N N 115

16 N 219 212 N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N 751N 1

121 6 1 N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N 1151 4 11 2 163 N N N

N N N N N N N N M N N 112 N 2 6 316 2 2 J 1

N M N M N N M N M H N 212

<4 1 7 2 7 * 2 1 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1 N N N N N N N N

M <4 N 4.

«4 2 1 M M M N N N 1 N M M N N N N N



S * M Y <J N N M N M S N N12 N N N N N N S S


N N N N N N N 2 N 1 N N N26 N N 1 N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N27 N N N N N N N N


N N N N N N N 1 N 3 N N N24 N N 5 1 N N N N

*+

= G

kfAT

Eh

THAN

si

v.5

PER

CEN

T;

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LESS

TH

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CE

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WS

W

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A

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AL

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l>

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.

TAB

LE

B-5

. (C

ontinued)

--

PR

UB

AB

IL I

T I

I S

THA

T A

N

PIL

S

PIL

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LA

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2 f^ fj 4 1 N r.

N N N3

3 N N S 1 N N

N N N1 3 N N 1 N N N

N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N 1 N N N

N M M N S N N N N M

>J 1 M1

3 1 ^

12 6 VJ M

N N N12 1 N 153 N N

N N M 2 N N B 1 N N

N N N N N N 3 N N 14

N N N N N N 1 N N N

N N N N N N N N N N

M N M N N M N N N N

M ^ M !M M N N M ^ N

1 2 1 < 14 ?12 20 N N

M N S < 1 M33 13 ^ N

N N N N N N2

0 2 N 1

N N N H N N 5 N M N

N M M «4 N N N S N M

N N N N N N M N N N

N N N N N N M N N N

N N N N N N N N N N

N N N 113 N

13

34 1 N

N N N N 3 N2*

38 1 N

TAB

LE

B-

5 (C

on

tin

ue

d)

Pk

lJb

AB

lL I

T 1

1 S

T

HA

T

AN

(H

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S

TA

RT

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IN

T

HF

W

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N

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LA

R

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W

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C

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D

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TP

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3

P5<»

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6Pb9 P60 PtI P62 P63 P64

P66 P6 7 P68 P69 P70 P71 P72 P73 P74 P7

*> p

16

17 lb 31

3^

33

36

3B

3

9 43

44

b 1

N N f. N N N N N r. K fJ N K 4 N N N N N N 1 N N' N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N 2 N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N K N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N] N N N N M N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N M N N N N N N N N N ,M N N 1

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N K N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N 1 2 1 7 2 ^>2

3 N N s N 1 N Ni N N

N «4 H N N S| N N M 2 M 1 1 ?2

6 N 1 <J S ? 1 <4 N N

N N N N K N N N N N N N N 2 2 N N N N 3 1 N 1 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N I N 1 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1

N N N N N N M Ni M 5 N 1 4 3U

1 N N NJ I 1 N N N

M N NJ ^ M M LI M SJ 1 M NJ 2 1 2 1 M ^ N 4 3 N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N <t ? 1 1 N

M N M M M S <4 S N 4 N s 3 1 3 2 M N N 3 ? SI N Si

N N N N N N N K N N N N N N N N N N N I, N U N N

I10 7

13 1 3 <,

19 3 N 9 N N 1 N N N N N N N N N N

n I I 2 N 1 24

629 N 4 14 N N N H H M M N m N M N

N N N N N N N N2

7 71 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N 43

4 N 213 1 4

17 5 N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N 2 23 N 2

10 2 9 b 9 2 N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N 221

N 213 1

116 2 N N N M N N N

N N N N N N N N 221 N 1

11 1 4 4 3 N 2 N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N30 N N t> M M M N M M H n N M

M,T

E:

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= G

KE

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TH

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99.0

P

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N

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LE

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>

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21 28 29 30 31

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N N N N 7 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N 3 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

217

11 K

37 3 N N K N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

242

44 1 2 N 1 N N N N N N N K N N N N N N N N

N 57

913 N N 1 N N < N N * M N N N N N N N N N

N N1

538 N N 3 ? N N N 6 N N 5 1 N N N N N N N

N N 1 2 N N 2 2 3 1 N 8 N N 13 5 N N N N N 1 N

N N N N N N N N20

23 1 2 3

15 3 * N N N N N I 1

M N N N N N N N 636 2 1 3

27 1 1 N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N 15

8 9 1 N14 1 2 N N 1 1 N N N

N N N N N N N N N R13 N N

14 1 9 1 1 2 4 1 2 1


4 N 1 9 1 5 1 N 2 6 1 N N

N N N N N N N N N 1 5 K N12 3

10 1 1 4 5 N 3 1

N N N N N N N N N 1 7 N N 8 1 9 2 2 b 8 1 2 1

N H N N N N M N N 1 8 N N 7 1 8 2 4 S 5 2 4 2

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N M H N M M M N N N N 1 N N N N N N N N N N N



N * S N S H H H H N N13 N N * N N N N M N H N

N N N N N N N N N N N 1 N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N 1 N N N33 N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N3

7 N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N 2 N N N N N N N N N N N

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N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N H M N N N N N N N



N N N N N M N N N N N N N N

N 7 S2b 5 M N 1 N N ^ >4 N N

N 8 N B 1 N N N N N N N N N

N 1 N 2 N N N I 1 N N 1 N N


N N N N N N N N N Nl N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1

N N N N N N N N N N H N N N

N SI N M Nl S N M M N N N N 1

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N 2 M37

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N N N > N N N 2 2 N 1 1 1 N

N N N N N N N N N N N 1 1 N

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N 1 * 62B 1 1 B 8 1 M N N N

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N K N N N N r.1 N N N N1

1 N N N N N N 4 b N N 1 2 2 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N ? 2 I N 1 4 1 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N K N N N N N N N 1 N 1

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N * 3

N N S N N N V N N N N N N N N <4 N N N N N N N N N 4

N N N N N N N N N N t. N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 3

M N N N N N N 1 N 1 4 3 111 N 3 3 2 13 6 N N N N S N

N N «4 M M M M 1 Y N N I1

? N 1 N 1 3IB IB

1 1 N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N 1 N N N N N N14 16 ? 1 3 3 1 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 2 4 1 1 2 6 3 N

N N N N Ni N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1 1 N N 1 3 2 1

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 4

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 7

N N M N N N N 3 N N 4 1 7 2 1 4 b 2 11 9 Ni N N N N N

N M N «4 4 N ^ J M <4 1 «4 4 N M M 1 1

27

26 1 N 1 2 1 N

N N N N M N N *4 N N N N N N N N N N 10 Ib1 1 3 5 3 N

N N «4 «4 <4 H <4 1 N S ? I 1 1 N 1 2 22

7 Ih? N N 1 N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1 N N 2 b 2 2

1 916 2 1

37

IbN 2 N N 1 1 N N N N N N N N N N N N N

S N M S M1

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6 M N M N N N M M M N N M N N H N S M N

N N N N N N 19 7b N N 1 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N *2

3 1 N14 N 4

11 4 3 2 1 N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N 21

0 N 1 9 1 4 bIb 12 b N 1 N N N N N N N

N N N N N N 111

N 111

1 4 3 4 8 5 N N N M M N N N N

N N N N N N 1 7 N 1 9 1 > 3 4 710 1 1 N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N25 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

M/T

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17 19 21 22 2ft

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28 29 30 31 32 33

3^ 36 37 38 39

N N N1

3 N N N N N N 1, N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N 3 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

*> b N43 2 N

10 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

1<*

20 1 N N N

38 N N N N N N N N N N N M N N K

1 9 2 N N V7

3 N N N N N N M N N N N N N N N

N 2 4 N N N2

6 3 1 1 N 3 N N fc 2 N N N N N N

N N 1 N M N 3 3 7 6 N 7 N 1 117 N N N M N N

N N N N S M N N1

029 N 4 2

10 3 5 M N N «* N M

N N N N N N N N 2Ib

N 4 534 2 4 N N 2 N 1 M

N N N N N N N N 1 B N N 14

7 1 7 N 2 6 1 1 1

N N N N N N N N N 1 1 N N2

3 2 9 N 51

5 5 2 1

N N N N N N N N N 2 2 N 12

3 1 7 111 1

7 1 N N

N N N N N N N N N N 1 N N 6 31

1 N1

82

0 2 2 1

M N N N N N M N N N N N H 2 1 7 N 17 37 4 2 2

N N N N M M N N S M N N N 1 1 3 N 73

811

7 4

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

^ i* H M S 1 N N S *4 N N M N N N H H H M N N



M S N N )4 N * * * N N12 N N S N )4 N )4 N N M


N N N N N 1 N 2 N N N2

9 N M N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N M M N3

0 N N N N M N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N 2 H N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N 1 3 1 N N N1

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P

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17 18 23

24

25

26

27

28

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3.

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t35 36 37 38 39 40

42

4

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45

57

N N N N N N N N N N2

2 N h N N N N N 1 N N N N N


N N N N N N N N K N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N H N N N N N

M M N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1

N N N N N N N N K N N K N N N N N N N N N N N N

M N M N N N N N 2 M 5It N N 1 8 7 8 7 1 N N N N

N N M N N M N N N N ?2* M N N 1 4

11

11 1 1 M N N

N N N N N N N N N N 2 N N N N N N 3 9 N N 1 1 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 1 3 N N 1 1 N




N N N N N N N N N M 213 N N 2 13 8

16

12 1 1 N N N

N N N N M M N N N N 1 N M N M N 111 25 2 1 1 14 N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 3 8 1 1 1 1 N

N M N M M N N N N N N 2 M M 1 5 614

20 2 N 4 N N


1 3 1 157

19 N 1 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

4 M N N 59

2 N * N 4 N N 4 N N N N N N N N 4 4 4

N N N N N 17 5 1 1

16 2 7 N N 9

12 1 N N N N N N N

N N N N N 1 3 N N14 1 4 3 8

24

14 1 N N N N N N N

N N N N N N N N N 2 1 2 N 471 8 N 1 N N N N N N

N N N N M M N N M 1 M 1 N N49

40 N N N N N N N N

N N N N N N 1 N N 1 N N N N1

27

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0 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

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9 6 N N N18 N N N N N N N N N N N N

14 b2 7 N N 3 N N N N N N N N N N N N

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N N 1 2 N N 1 4 4 N N N 15 N N 3 1 N

N N N N 1 N N N 13

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711

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N N N N N N N N N N 2 6 1 4 17 6 IF! N

N N N N N N N N N N N 4 2 1 7 420 1

N N N N M N N N M M N 3 N 1 5 213 1

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

M M N N «4 N ^ Kj M M ^ N 1 M N \ ^ N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

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AN

0.

b P

EK

CE

NT

. K

DK

S

^IIH

A

IL

VA

LU

ES

L

ES

S

TH

AN

0

.5

PE

RC

EN

T

AR

E

NO

T

SH

DH

N.

23 N N 2 N

31N N I N

1 N N N N

N N N N N

N M N N N

N N N N N

N N N N N

14 M K!174

19 N N b I

4 N N N N

N N N N N

N N N N N

N N N N N

N N N N N

N M N N N

B B 11* 20

7 M N2* 10

N N N 7 N

N N N 1 N

N M N N M

N N N N N

N N N N N

N N N N N

5 6 N 12

31

1 N N29

35

TAB

LE

B-8

(C

on

tin

ue

d)

PR

I'B

AB

IL I

T H

S

TH

AT

A

N

I 1L

S

F'IL

L

ST

AR

TIN

G

IN

TH

E

AU

TU

MN

S

EA

SO

N

AT

A

PA

KI1

CU

IAR

L

OC

AT

ION

W

ILL

C

ON

TA

CT

A

CL

KIA

IN

LA

ND

S

EG

ME

NT

W

ITH

IN

30

D

AY

S.

IAN

O

SE

GM

FU

TP

51

P5

2

P*>

3P

56

P

57

P

5B

P6

0

P61

P6

2

P6

3

P6<»

P

65

P

66

P

67

P

68

P

69

P

70

P

71

P

72

P

73

P

74

P

7b

P

76

16

1

/J«

23

2' 6

21

33

39

N

N n N

N N M f< N N 1, N N N N N N N N

N

N

N

N

N

N N N N N N 1 N N N N N N N N

N

N

N

N

N

N N N N N N Kl N N N N N N N N

H N

N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N

M

N N

N N N N N N N N N N N S N M N N

N

N

N

N

N


N

N

N

N

N

N M N 2 4 1 731 N N N M N N N

N

M N N N N N N Ni 33

6 M M N N M N N

N

N

N

Kl N

N N N N N N 3 2 N N N N N N N

N

N

N

N

N


N N

N N N N N N N N N N M N N N N N

N

N N

N

N


N

N N

N

N


N N M N N N 1 N N 2 4

21 N N M N N M N

N N N M N M M M 1 3 N M N N 1 *t N

N

N N

N N

N N N N N N N N N N M N 1 1 1

N N N M M 1 M M ? 2 4 1 14 V N 1 M M

N

S

N

N

N

N N N K N N K N N N N N N N N

10

2

2 3

39 1 N 4 N N N N N N N N N N N

N 1 N

28

69 N 1 N N N 14 N M M N N <4 N

N N

N

N

N

N31


N

N

N

N

N 1 7

36 N 1

17 2 5

11 3 N N N N N

N

M

N

N

N

N 717 1 1

21 3 9 5 5 1 N N N N

N

N

N

N

N

N 21

1 N 22

2 1 9 1 N N N N N N

N

N

N

N

N

N 2 9 N 114 N 5 1 N N 2 N N N

N

N N <4 M33 N N N N N N N N N N N

MIT

E:

**

= G

kF

AT

EK

T

HA

N

99.

'> F

IKC

lNT

; N

=

LE

SS

T

HA

N

0.'>

P

fKC

fcN

T.

KO

WS

W

ITH

A

IL

VA

LU

ES

L

I S

S

TH

AN

0.5

P

Fk

CE

NT

A

RE

N

UT

S

HO

WN

.

Appendix C

111

Table C-1. -- ProbaoiIities (expressed as percent chance) of

one or

more spills* and the expected number of

spills (mean)

occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of the lease area* most likely volume

scenario/ comparison of

three deletion alternativ/es.

T a nje t

Within 10 days --------

-------

yDELETE

DELETE

DELETE

SAN

SAN

SANTA

DIEGO

NICHOLAS

MONICA

n

Prob Mean

Proo Mean

Prob Mean

Land

N .

C n a n n e

I Islands

S.

C nanne I

Islands

Channel Islands

N. Sea Otter Ran j

eS. Sed Otter Rancje

Sea Otter

t< a i

') e

Santa Monica Jay

San Nicholas Island

Heyij

Hock

N .

A n j

c d p

a Island

San

1 1 <j«je

I Island

Least Tern Colonies

Least Tern Colon/

1Least Tern Colony

2Least Tern Colon/

3Least Tern-Colony

4N

. Offshore Feeding

S. Offshore Feeling

Anacapa Island


Cor on ad

os

I s

I an

Is

Guada I

upe Island

Farallon Islands

Oaja Islands

Coastal Feed. Area

1Coastal Feed. Area

2Coastal Feed. Area

3Coast. J

I Feed. Area

4Coastal Feed. Area



14 10I

1 1 n n n 2 1 n n 5 I n 1 n n 2 2 n 1 n n n n 5 4 2 7 1 1 1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

3. 3

0.1

J.d

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

1S 102 1 1 n n n 5 1 n n 5 2 n 1 n n ? 2 n 1 n n n n 5 4 5 7 n 1 1

0. ?

1.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

n.o

0.0

0.0

0.1

1.0

0.0

0.0

3.0

3.0

0.0

0.0

n.o

o.o

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

n.o

1 6

10 2 11 n n n 4 n n n 5 2 n 2 n n 2 2 n 1 n n n n 5 4 4 8 1 1 1

0.?

0.1

0.0

n.1

n.o

0.0

0.0

n.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n.o

0.0

n.o

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

n.n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n.o

0.0

n.1

0.0

n.o

n.o

24 1 2 2

1 3 n n n 3 1 1 n 7 ? n 2 n n 4 4 1 1 n n n n R 4 3 8 1 3 2

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

n.o

n.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

n.o

0.0

0.0

n.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n.o

n.o

0.0

0.0

n.o

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

26 1 2 2

1 4 n n n 6 ? 1 n 7 2 n 1 n n 4 t, 1 1 n n n n 8 4 6 7 n 3 2

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

n.o

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n.o

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

27 122 14 n n n 5 1 1 n 7 3 n 2 n n 4 3 1 1 n n n n 8 4 6 9 1 3 2

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

30 1 3 2

1 4 n n n 3 2 1 1 7 3 n 2 n n 5 6 1 1 1 n n n 9 5 3 8 2 3 3

0.4

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

32 133

15n n n 6 2 1 1 7 3 n 2 n n 6 6 1 1 1 n n n 9 5 7 7 1 3 3

0.4

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

34 13 2

1 5 n n n 5 2 1 1 7 4

. n 2 n n 6 6 1 1 1 n n n 9 5 6

10 3 4 3

0.4

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

O.U

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

O.U

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Note:

n =

less than 3.5 percent;

*«

= qreater than 99.5 percent

spills* and the expected number of spills (mean)

Table

C - 2.

- -

Probabilities (expressed as percent chance)

of one or more

_. ^

. ..

i _.

. «.. ̂

..

.»;

^n^'-*-*-^

.. ~... >.

«.

.»K

....

...

.........

occurring and contacting land segments over the expected production life of the lease area* most likely

volume scenario/ comparison of three deletion alternatives.

Land

Segment

------- Within

5 days

DELETE

DELETE

SANTA

SAN

MONICA

DIEGO

Prob *lean

Proa Mean

Within 10

DELETE

SAN

DIEGO

m

Prob Meandays

Within 30 days - ---

DELETE

DELETE

SAN

SAN

DIEGO

NICHOLAS

in

Prob Mean

Prob Mean

U

1 5

16 17 1 9

23 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 35 36 38

Note:

n =


**

= greater than 99.5 percent. Segments with less than 0.5 percent probability

of one or more contacts within 30 days are not shown.

n 2 2 1 1 n n 3 2 n 1 n n n n n

0.0

0.0

3.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.0

0.0

n 2 2 1 1 n n 4 2 n 1 n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

'

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

n 2 2 1 1 n n 4 3 n 1 n n n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 t, 3 2 2 n 1 5 3 1 2 1 1 n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.n

0.0

0.0

1 4 3 2 2 n 1 7 T 1 2 1 1 n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

1 4 3 2 2 n 1 7 4 1 3 1 1 n n n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 5 3 2 2 1 1 5 3 1 3 1 2 1 1 n

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 5 3 2 2 1 2 7 3 1 3 1 2 n 1 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

2 5 3 2 2 1 2 7 4 1 3 1 2 1 1 1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

. 0.0

0.0

0.0

Table C-3. -- Probabilities (expressed as

percent chance)

of one or more spills/ and the expected number of spills (mean)

occurring and contacting targets over the expected production life of

the lease area* conditional mean

volume scenario/ comparison of

three deletion alternatives.

Target

L a nd

N. Channel Islands

S. Channel Islands

Channel Islands

N. Sea Otter Range

S. Sea Otter Range

Sea Otter Range

Santa Monica Bay

San Nicholas Island

Isegg

Rock

fj.

Anacapa

S d n

Mi g ue

ILeast

Least

Least

Least

Least Tern Colony


S. Offshore Feeding

Anacapa Island


C o ronado s

Islands

Guadalupe Island

Farallon Islands

Baja Islands

Coastal Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.

Feed.Island

Island

Tern Colonies

Tern Colony

1 Tern Colony

2 Tern Colony

3

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Coastal

Area

Area

Area

Area

Area

Area

Area

------- Within

5 days

DELETE

DELETE

SANTA

SAN

MONICA

Proo

42 319

37 n n n 5 5 3 1156 n 5 n n 17 172 3 n n n nU 135

241 6 4

Mean

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0. 1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0. 1

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.0

DIEGO

Prob

46 31 10 38n n n

125 3 1

157 n 6 n n

17 172 3 n n n n

14 1 3

12 26n 7 4

( le

an

0.6

0.4

0.1

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.?

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0. 3

0.0

0.1

0.0

DELETE

SAN

NICHOLAS

Prob

46 31 10 38n n n

1 1 4 3 1

1 5 7 n 6 n n

1 5

162 3 n n n n

14 1 3

11 78? 6 4

Mean

0.6

0.4

0.1

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0. 3

0.0

0.1

0.0

-------

Wl

DELETE

SANTA

MONICA

Prob

65 38 11 44n n n 8

106 2

228 n 6 n n

24 263 4 1 n n n

?3 149

262

11 10

Mean

1 .0

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0. 1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0. 1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0. 3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0. 3

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.1

thin ID day

DELETE

SA.J

DIEGO

Prob

69 38

1 ?

45 n n n1o 1 1 6 ?

? ? ') n 6 n n

25 263 i, 1 n n n

23 1 4

1 7

271

1 '

1 1

Mean

1 .2

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.3

o.a

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.0

0.1

0.1

s --------

DELETE

SAN

N 1C

HOL AS

Prob

69 38 1 1

45 n n n

1 4 9 6 2

22 10n 7 n n

24 25>> 4 1 n n n

23 14 1 5

313

12 11

Mean

1 .

>0.5

0.1

0. 6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0. ?

0. 1

0. 1

0.0

0. 2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0. 3

0. 3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0. 3

0.2

0. ?

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.1

----

---

w i

DELETE

SANTA

MOMI CA

Pr OD

7641

1 1

46 n n n 9

1 3 7 4

23 1 0 n ? 1 1

29 ^64 4 3 n n 1

'4 1 >

1 0

^3 7

1 3

1 5

Mean

1 .4

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.2

tnin iu days -- --

DELETE

DELETE

SAN

SAN

DIEGO

Prob

79 40 12 48 n n n17 148 4

23 11n 7 1 1

30 375 5 3 n n 1

24 16 18

29 614 16

Mea'n

1 .6

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

NICHOLAS

Prob

80 40 12 47 n n n

15 137 4

23 13n 8 1 1

29 365 5 3 n n 1

24 16 16 339

15 16

Mean

1.6

0.5

0.1

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

Note:

n =


**

= greater

t h.

} n

99.5 percent

Table C-4. Probabilities (expressed as percent chance)

of one or more spills/ and th

e expected number of

spills (mean)

occurriny and contacting land segments over the expected production life of th

e lease area/ conditional mean

volume scenario/ comparison of

three deletion alternatives.

cn

Land

Se ymen t

1 4

1 5

16 17 19 23 25 26 21 29,

29 50 51 32 33 34 35 36

37 38

39

-------

w i

DELETE

SANTA

MONICA

Prob 1 5 5 4 3 n n

1 1 9 ? 1 4 2 2 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

3.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

3.0

3.0

tnin

5 aays

DELETE

SAN

DIEGO

Prob 1 5 5 4 3 n 1

1 5

10 2 1 5 2 2 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

DELETE

SAN

NICHOLAS

Prob 1 5 5 4 3 n 1

1 5

112 1 5 2 2 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.2

n.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-------

w i t

(i i n

ID aays --------

DELETE

DELETE

DELETE

SANTA

SAN

SAN

MONI C

AProb 4

119 6 7 2 2

16 116 2 9 5 7 n n 1 1 n n n

Mean

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.?

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

DIEGO

Prob 4

1 1

106 7 ? 4

22 1 1 6 2

10 5 7 n n n n n n n

Mean

0.0

0. 1

0.1

0. 1

o. r

0.0

0.0

0.2

0. 1

0. 1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0. 1

c.o

0.0

0.0

0.0

o.o

0.0

0.0

NICHOLAS

Prob 4

1 1

106 ? 2 3

21 1 3 5 2

1 0 5 7 1 n 1 1 n n n

Mean

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

- --

i« i i n

i n

iu aays --------

DELETE

DELETE

DELETE

SANTA

SAN

SAN

MONK A

Prob 5

13 110 8 4 2

17 128 2

107

1 1 1 n 2 4 1 3 3

Mean

C.O

0.1

0.1

0. 1

0.1

0.0

n.o

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.0

n. 1

0.1

0.1

0.0

G.O

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

DIEGO

Prob 5

1 3

1 1 6 8 4 5

23

1 2 8 2

1 1 7

12 n n 2 4 1 4 3

Mean

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

NICHOLAS

'Pro

b

513

116 8 4 4

22 158 2

127

12 1 1 3 5 1 4 3

Mean

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

o.b

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

Note:

n =


** =

greater than 99.5 percent. Segments with less than

'1.5

percent probability

of one or

more contacts within 30 days are not shown.

Documents

UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR MINERALS ... · All oil from the central and southern Inner Banks (areas P10-P15, P71-P75) will be piped to a central platform and then tankered