United States World Agricultural Service Production€¦ · Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD 202-260-8109 [email protected]

Source: PSD

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign

Agricultural Service Circular Series WAP 1-15 January 2015

Brazil Soybeans: Production at a Record 95.5 Million Tons; Higher Yield USDA forecasts Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean production at a record 95.5 million tons, up 1.5 million from last month and up 8.8 million tons from last year. Harvested area is forecast at a record 31.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 1.4 million hectares from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.03 tons per hectare, up 1.6 percent from last month and up 5.2 percent from last year.

The increase in estimated yield is attributed to beneficial weather in Brazil’s largest soybean areas—Mato Grosso and Paraná. These two states account for 44 percent of Brazil’s soybean area. The overall rainfall pattern has been consistently favorable following the delayed onset of the rainy season, with clear skies between rainfall events. This has limited the prevalence of soybean rust. In some areas, however, rainfall has been limited and there are concerns for yield prospects in Goiás and Piauí. These two states account for 13 percent of Brazil’s soybean area. In Rio Grande do Sul, excessive rain caused flooding

in low-lying areas. Damage to soybean fields, however, is limited according to local reports. Soybean farmers in Mato Grosso typically plant early maturing soybean varieties; last year about 60 percent of the 8.4 million hectares in Mato Grosso was planted using early-maturing varieties. The goal is to plant early and harvest in January so that a second crop can be planted. Cotton, corn, sunflower and sorghum can be planted as second crops. Soybean harvest has begun for the earliest planted soybeans but the bulk of the harvest will occur in February. (For more information, please contact Bob Tetrault at [email protected].)

World Agricultural Production

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board

mailto:[email protected]

India Soybeans: Yields Forecasted Below 5-Year Average USDA forecasts 2014/15 India soybean production at 10.5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons from last month but up 1.0 million from last year. Area is forecast at 11.0 million hectares, unchanged from last month but down 1.2 million hectares from last year’s record. Yield is forecast at 0.95 tons per hectare, up 23 percent from last year, but 6.8 percent below the 5-year average.

India’s soybeans are grown exclusively during the kharif (southwest monsoon) season, under rain-fed conditions. Most of the soybean crop is grown in northwest and central India where the main producing states are Madhya Pradesh (53 percent), Maharashtra (34 percent), and Rajasthan (8 percent). The 2014 season started as one of the driest, resulting in significant planting delays. According to the Government of India’s Meteorological Department, the advance of the 2014 southwest monsoon into the major soybean growing areas of north-central and northwestern India was delayed by more than two weeks. Although the monsoon rains improved during July, rainfall totals for the monsoon remained below normal at the end of the month. At the end of July, estimated regional monsoon rainfall was 49 percent below normal in northwest India, 47 percent below normal in central India, 26 percent below normal in the southern peninsula, and 22 percent below normal in north-east India. Generally, the Indian monsoon is characterized as normal at 95 to 105 percent of the long-term-average (LTA), and drought is declared when the monsoon is less than 90 percent of LTA. The late start and poor distribution of the monsoon rainfall significantly affected planted area and yield potential. Timely planting is critical because most farmers use short-day soybean varieties. Short-day soybean varieties tend to trip the reproductive trigger (flowering) as the day length shortens, which occurs much quicker with delayed plantings. In India the optimum soybean planting window is the third week of June to the second week of July. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD, at [email protected]) India Corn: Increase in Rabi Season Corn Area Raises Production Forecast India's 2014/15 corn production is forecast at 22.0 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from last month but down 2.2 million from last year. Area is forecast at 9.0 million hectares, up 0.4 million hectares from last month, but down 0.5 million from last year. Yield is forecast at 2.44 ton per hectare, unchanged from last month, down 4.1 percent from last year, and up 1 percent from the 5-year average. India produces two corn crops, the first during the kharif or monsoon season (June through October) and the second rabi season (September through April). Roughly 80 percent of India’s corn is grown during the kharif season. Across the majority of corn growing states (Rajasthan, Karnataka, Utter Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and Gujarat), unusually dry weather during the

2


beginning of the planting season for 2014 kharif corn resulted in significant planting delays and a significant year-to-year decrease in final sown area. Kharif corn area was reported at 7.84 million hectares compared to 8.22 during the corresponding period last year. Kharif corn harvesting is complete. Rabi corn planting is in the final stages and reported to be progressing well. According to planting progress data from the Ministry of Agriculture, rabi season corn was planted at 1.15 million hectares at the end of December compared to 1.16 by the same time last year. The major factor driving the month-to-month increase in estimated production is the increase in rabi corn area. (For more information contact Dath Mita, PhD at [email protected]) Ethiopia Wheat: Record Production Estimated Ethiopia wheat production for 2014/15 is forecast to reach a record 4.4 million tons, up 0.15 million tons from last year’s record crop. Harvested area is estimated at a record 1.8 million hectares, up 0.15 million from last year. Yield is estimated at a record 2.4 tons per hectare, due to favorable rainfall throughout the growing season in the wheat highland regions. Wheat yield has been increasing since 2002 due to favorable government initiatives that adopted improved seed varieties, increased fertilizer distribution, and expanded agriculture extension in rural areas.

3


Ethiopia wheat is a cool-weather grain crop that is primarily grown at elevations from 1,500 to 3,000 meters above sea level. The crop is grown mostly during the main (meher) rainy season from June to September and harvested from October through January. Rainfall quantity and distribution during the 2014 meher season was favorable, as indicated by the cropland NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) time series graphs for Oromia and Amhara regions. Those two regions account for approximately 60 and 30 percent of Ethiopia’s total wheat output, respectively. The NDVI time series graphs also indicate that the meher growing season had a late start with delayed onset rains in June, but the 2014 rainy season extended beyond average into the month of October. Relative crop conditions for Ethiopia’s 2014 meher growing season are summarized by the cumulative Evapotranspiration Anomaly (ETa) product, which indicates that 2014 crop conditions were above average for most major wheat growing regions in Ethiopia. Seasonal NDVI time series graphs and cumulative ETa Anomaly data have proven to be reliable tools for monitoring seasonal crop conditions in Ethiopia, and both products indicate that Ethiopia should have a bumper 2014/15 wheat harvest. (For more information, please contact Curt Reynolds at [email protected].)

4


World Agricultural Production U.S. Department of Agriculture

Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis International Production Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD)

Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building Washington, DC 20250-1051

http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/ Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158

This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S. area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-537), January 12, 2015. Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at 1-800-363-2068. The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, February 10, 2015.

Conversion Table

Metric tons to bushels

Wheat, soybeans = MT * 36.7437 Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * 39.36825 Barley = MT * 45.929625 Oats = MT * 68.894438

Metric tons to 480-lb bales

Cotton = MT * 4.592917

Metric tons to hundredweight

Rice = MT * 22.04622

Area & weight

1 hectare = 2.471044 acres 1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds

5

http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/

For further information, contact: U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Office of Global Analysis

International Production Assessment Division Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building

Washington, DC 20250-1051

Telephone: (202) 720-1156 Fax: (202) 720-1158 GENERAL INFORMATION Acting Deputy Director Paul Provance 202-720-2974 [email protected] USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Archives Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Projects Manager/Technical Lead Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] Program Analyst Mary Jackson 202-720-0886 [email protected] Management Analyst Rishan Chaudhry 202-720-1157 [email protected] Administrative Assistant/COTR Terri Lagarde 202-720-1157 [email protected] COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD 202-720-0107 [email protected] Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 [email protected] and North Africa Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 [email protected] and other FSU-12 countries

Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 [email protected] and Bangladesh

East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133 [email protected] India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 [email protected] Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 [email protected] Nigeria and South Africa S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean 202-720-7366 [email protected] Cambodia, and Vietnam Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 [email protected] Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected] Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD 202-260-8109 [email protected] Iran, Syria Western United States Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 [email protected] Eastern United States Paul Provance 202-720-2974 [email protected] Crop Analyst Vacant



The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

(WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.

FAS Reports and Databases:

Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports): http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

Export Sales Report: http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/ Economic Research Service: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

National Agricultural Statistics Service: http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx

http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/

http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx

http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/

Million Metric Tons

Table 01 World Crop Production Summary

World

-

Total

Foreign

North

America

North

America

North

America

Europea

n Union -

Former

Soviet

Former

Soviet

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

Asia

(WAP)

South

America

South

America

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

Selected

Other

All

Others

none

-

none

-

United

States

Mexico

-

Canada

-

none

-

Russia

-

Ukraine

-

China

-

India

-

Indo-

nesia

Paki-

stan

Thai-

land

Argen-

tina

Brazil

-

South

Africa

Turkey

-

none

-

Aus-

tralia

Commodity

---Million metric tons---

Wheat

2012/13 85.815.51.922.94.49.3nr23.3nr94.9121.015.837.7133.93.227.261.3596.7658.0

2013/14 prel. 96.418.01.827.05.310.5nr24.0nr93.5121.922.352.1143.53.437.558.1657.3715.4

2014/15 proj.

Dec 89.215.01.824.06.312.0nr25.0nr95.9126.024.559.0155.43.729.355.1667.1722.2

Jan 90.315.01.824.06.312.0nr25.0nr95.9126.024.559.0155.53.729.355.1668.3723.4

Coarse Grains

2012/13 166.310.612.911.484.337.24.75.68.539.9212.229.528.7145.928.924.4285.3851.01,136.3

2013/14 prel. 171.613.115.312.481.934.55.05.69.142.7225.139.935.7158.532.128.7367.1911.21,278.3

2014/15 proj.

Dec 173.19.314.111.278.129.25.05.69.237.3222.237.841.0167.731.321.9381.4893.91,275.3

Jan 173.49.314.111.277.729.25.05.69.238.3222.237.841.0168.031.321.9377.1895.21,272.3

Rice, Milled

2012/13 141.40.5nr0.88.01.020.25.836.6105.2143.00.10.72.10.1nr6.3465.5471.9

2013/14 prel. 145.10.5nr0.68.31.020.56.736.3106.5142.50.10.62.00.1nr6.1470.8477.0

2014/15 proj.

Dec 144.90.5nr0.58.41.020.56.536.5102.0144.50.10.72.00.1nr7.1468.2475.2

Jan 145.20.5nr0.58.31.020.56.536.5102.0144.50.10.72.00.1nr7.1468.4475.5

Total Grains

2012/13 393.426.614.735.196.747.624.934.745.1240.1476.245.467.1281.932.251.6353.01,913.22,266.2

2013/14 prel. 413.131.617.140.095.546.025.436.345.4242.8489.562.388.4304.035.666.3431.32,039.32,470.6

2014/15 proj.

Dec 407.224.815.935.792.842.225.537.145.7235.2492.762.4100.7325.035.151.2443.62,029.22,472.7

Jan 408.924.815.935.792.342.225.537.145.7236.2492.762.4100.7325.535.151.2439.32,031.92,471.2

Oilseeds

2012/13 49.12.21.45.784.853.70.65.110.837.559.812.710.928.20.919.093.3382.4475.7

2013/14 prel. 48.82.41.95.290.357.50.65.111.536.858.916.713.631.70.923.499.0405.2504.2

2014/15 proj.

Dec 49.22.51.94.297.258.90.65.212.138.057.316.013.035.01.021.7117.0413.7530.7

Jan 49.42.51.94.298.758.90.65.312.137.257.316.013.035.41.021.7117.3415.0532.4

Cotton

2012/13 16.92.70.04.66.00.80.09.30.028.535.0nrnr1.51.0nr17.3106.3123.6

2013/14 prel. 16.12.30.04.18.01.20.09.50.031.032.8nrnr1.60.9nr12.9107.5120.4

2014/15 proj.

Dec 15.93.20.12.27.01.10.09.80.031.030.0nrnr1.61.2nr15.9103.1119.0

Jan 16.03.20.12.27.01.10.010.20.030.530.0nrnr1.61.2nr16.1103.1119.2

1/ Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.

Table 02 Wheat Area, Yield, and Production

From last month From last year

MMTPercent

Yield

(Metric tons per hectare)

Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million metric tons)

Change in Production

2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Jan Percent

2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

216.30World 1.128.030.171.20723.38220.91 222.00 222.29 3.04 3.24 3.25 3.25 658.04 715.36 722.18

19.73United States -5.12-2.980.000.0055.1318.35 18.77 18.77 3.11 3.17 2.94 2.94 61.30 58.11 55.13

196.57Total Foreign 1.6711.000.181.20668.26202.56 203.23 203.52 3.04 3.24 3.28 3.28 596.74 657.25 667.05

none

24.27China 3.344.070.000.00126.0024.12 24.10 24.10 4.99 5.06 5.23 5.23 121.02 121.93 126.00

South Asia

29.86 India 2.572.400.000.0095.9130.00 30.60 30.60 3.18 3.12 3.13 3.13 94.88 93.51 95.91

8.66 Pakistan 4.171.000.000.0025.008.64 8.83 8.83 2.69 2.78 2.83 2.83 23.30 24.00 25.00

2.51 Afghanistan 0.500.030.000.005.032.55 2.56 2.56 2.01 1.96 1.96 1.96 5.05 5.00 5.03

Former Soviet Union - 12

21.30 Russia 13.266.910.000.0059.0023.40 23.75 23.75 1.77 2.23 2.48 2.48 37.72 52.09 59.00

5.63 Ukraine 9.972.220.000.0024.506.57 6.30 6.30 2.80 3.39 3.89 3.89 15.76 22.28 24.50

12.40 Kazakhstan -10.34-1.440.000.0012.5012.95 12.20 12.20 0.79 1.08 1.02 1.02 9.84 13.94 12.50

1.40 Uzbekistan 5.150.350.000.007.151.40 1.40 1.40 4.79 4.86 5.11 5.11 6.70 6.80 7.15

25.97European Union - 28 8.3611.990.070.10155.5125.83 26.80 26.80 5.16 5.56 5.80 5.80 133.95 143.51 155.40

5.30 France 1.360.52-0.18-0.0739.035.32 5.31 5.29 7.15 7.24 7.37 7.37 37.89 38.51 39.10

3.06 Germany 11.132.770.000.0027.703.13 3.23 3.23 7.33 7.98 8.57 8.57 22.41 24.93 27.70

1.99 United Kingdom 39.254.680.000.0016.601.63 1.98 1.98 6.66 7.33 8.41 8.41 13.26 11.92 16.60

2.08 Poland 17.891.700.000.0011.202.14 2.34 2.34 4.14 4.45 4.80 4.80 8.61 9.50 11.20

2.19 Spain -14.65-1.111.380.096.492.12 2.20 2.17 2.37 3.58 2.91 2.99 5.19 7.60 6.40

1.87 Italy -3.05-0.220.000.007.001.86 1.85 1.85 4.09 3.88 3.79 3.79 7.63 7.22 7.00

0.62 Denmark 21.950.910.000.005.050.57 0.70 0.70 7.42 7.29 7.27 7.27 4.56 4.14 5.05

1.06 Hungary 0.200.010.000.005.051.09 1.10 1.10 3.74 4.62 4.59 4.59 3.97 5.04 5.05

1.99 Romania 6.670.50-1.23-0.108.002.10 2.10 2.10 2.66 3.57 3.86 3.81 5.30 7.50 8.10

1.19 Bulgaria -6.73-0.360.410.024.921.25 1.15 1.15 3.76 4.22 4.26 4.28 4.46 5.28 4.90

9.50Canada -21.93-8.230.000.0029.3010.44 9.46 9.46 2.86 3.59 3.10 3.10 27.21 37.53 29.30

12.98Australia -11.14-3.010.000.0024.0013.51 13.80 13.80 1.76 2.00 1.74 1.74 22.86 27.01 24.00

Middle East

7.80 Turkey -16.67-3.000.000.0015.007.70 7.71 7.71 1.99 2.34 1.95 1.95 15.50 18.00 15.00

7.00 Iran -10.34-1.500.000.0013.007.00 6.80 6.80 1.97 2.07 1.91 1.91 13.80 14.50 13.00

1.60 Syria -37.50-1.500.000.002.501.55 1.30 1.30 2.31 2.58 1.92 1.92 3.70 4.00 2.50

North Africa

1.35 Egypt -0.61-0.050.000.008.201.35 1.30 1.30 6.30 6.11 6.31 6.31 8.50 8.25 8.20

3.14 Morocco -27.14-1.900.000.005.103.28 3.06 3.06 1.23 2.13 1.67 1.67 3.87 7.00 5.10

3.60Argentina 14.291.500.000.0012.003.50 4.10 4.10 2.58 3.00 2.93 2.93 9.30 10.50 12.00

17.61Others 2.451.162.321.1048.5718.78 19.16 19.45 2.49 2.52 2.48 2.50 43.79 47.40 47.47

World and Selected Countries and Regions

Table 03 Total Coarse Grain Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

315.86World -0.47-5.97-0.23-2.981,272.34323.29 317.20 318.04 3.60 3.95 4.02 4.00 1,136.27 1,278.31 1,275.32

39.21United States 2.7310.03-1.11-4.25377.1239.81 37.64 37.74 7.28 9.22 10.13 9.99 285.31 367.09 381.37

276.65Total Foreign -1.76-16.000.141.27895.22283.49 279.56 280.29 3.08 3.21 3.20 3.19 850.96 911.22 893.95

none

37.08China -1.30-2.920.000.00222.1538.38 39.07 39.07 5.72 5.86 5.69 5.69 212.19 225.07 222.15

South America

16.88 Brazil -5.12-4.19-0.51-0.4077.7116.71 16.18 16.01 4.99 4.90 4.83 4.85 84.25 81.90 78.11

6.84 Argentina -15.23-5.250.000.0029.225.93 5.02 5.02 5.45 5.81 5.83 5.83 37.25 34.47 29.22

31.36European Union - 28 6.029.540.220.37168.0531.34 31.03 31.05 4.65 5.06 5.40 5.41 145.89 158.51 167.68

3.99 France 14.434.08-0.26-0.0932.344.04 4.22 4.17 7.50 7.00 7.69 7.76 29.94 28.26 32.42

3.46 Germany 9.372.100.000.0024.553.40 3.29 3.29 6.64 6.60 7.47 7.47 22.99 22.45 24.55

5.53 Poland 4.550.850.000.0019.555.22 5.18 5.18 3.58 3.58 3.78 3.78 19.80 18.70 19.55

3.82 Spain -22.80-3.830.340.0412.953.94 3.92 3.97 2.99 4.25 3.29 3.26 11.41 16.77 12.91

1.40 Italy 14.751.230.000.009.531.24 1.22 1.22 6.47 6.70 7.79 7.79 9.08 8.31 9.53

1.67 Hungary 31.142.660.900.1011.181.72 1.74 1.74 3.78 4.95 6.38 6.43 6.30 8.53 11.08

1.15 United Kingdom -3.13-0.260.000.007.921.42 1.25 1.25 5.44 5.77 6.36 6.36 6.25 8.17 7.92

3.40 Romania 3.170.410.000.0013.413.37 3.33 3.33 2.23 3.85 4.03 4.03 7.59 13.00 13.41


14.18 Russia 14.735.270.000.0041.0015.49 16.20 16.20 2.02 2.31 2.53 2.53 28.66 35.74 41.00

8.55 Ukraine -5.33-2.130.000.0037.798.78 8.40 8.40 3.45 4.55 4.50 4.50 29.53 39.92 37.79

1.95 Kazakhstan -4.87-0.170.000.003.342.26 2.29 2.29 1.17 1.55 1.46 1.46 2.28 3.51 3.34

78.22Africa 0.320.360.270.30113.0981.49 81.90 82.38 1.43 1.38 1.38 1.37 112.22 112.73 112.79

12.73 Nigeria -3.13-0.600.000.0018.6013.25 13.25 13.25 1.46 1.45 1.40 1.40 18.57 19.20 18.60

3.44 South Africa -8.12-1.250.000.0014.103.31 3.42 3.42 3.75 4.64 4.13 4.13 12.87 15.34 14.10

5.18 Ethiopia -7.73-1.122.300.3013.356.16 5.41 5.89 2.37 2.35 2.41 2.27 12.29 14.47 13.05

0.98 Egypt -0.75-0.050.000.006.620.94 0.94 0.94 6.83 7.09 7.07 7.07 6.67 6.67 6.62

25.08India -10.30-4.402.681.0038.3125.38 23.71 24.11 1.59 1.68 1.57 1.59 39.94 42.71 37.31

Southeast Asia

3.00 Indonesia 1.100.100.000.009.203.12 3.12 3.12 2.83 2.92 2.95 2.95 8.50 9.10 9.20

2.56 Philippines 4.890.370.000.007.902.58 2.63 2.63 2.84 2.91 3.01 3.01 7.26 7.53 7.90

1.11 Thailand 0.000.000.000.004.961.15 1.13 1.13 4.20 4.31 4.38 4.38 4.66 4.96 4.96

8.92Mexico -2.37-0.760.000.0031.349.39 9.12 9.12 3.24 3.42 3.44 3.44 28.88 32.10 31.34

5.35Canada -23.76-6.830.000.0021.925.40 4.43 4.43 4.57 5.33 4.95 4.95 24.43 28.75 21.92

5.20Australia -9.39-1.160.000.0011.215.29 5.33 5.33 2.20 2.34 2.10 2.10 11.41 12.37 11.21

4.16Turkey -29.06-3.800.000.009.284.24 4.28 4.28 2.55 3.08 2.17 2.17 10.60 13.08 9.28

26.24Others -0.04-0.030.000.0068.7726.57 25.76 25.76 2.40 2.59 2.67 2.67 63.02 68.79 68.77


Table 04 Corn Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

177.59World 0.040.39-0.35-3.50988.08180.59 177.25 177.86 4.89 5.47 5.59 5.56 868.00 987.69 991.58

35.36United States 2.809.82-1.33-4.87361.0935.39 33.63 33.64 7.73 9.93 10.88 10.73 273.19 351.27 365.97

142.24Total Foreign -1.48-9.430.221.37626.99145.20 143.62 144.22 4.18 4.38 4.36 4.35 594.80 636.41 625.62

none

35.03China -1.37-2.990.000.00215.5036.32 37.00 37.00 5.87 6.02 5.82 5.82 205.61 218.49 215.50

22.73South America -5.70-6.560.000.00108.5721.96 21.04 21.04 5.27 5.24 5.16 5.16 119.77 115.13 108.57

15.80 Brazil -5.42-4.300.000.0075.0015.70 15.00 15.00 5.16 5.05 5.00 5.00 81.50 79.30 75.00

4.00 Argentina -12.00-3.000.000.0022.003.40 3.00 3.00 6.75 7.35 7.33 7.33 27.00 25.00 22.00

0.31 Bolivia 0.000.000.000.000.730.32 0.32 0.32 2.26 2.30 2.30 2.30 0.70 0.73 0.73

6.90Mexico 0.170.040.000.0023.007.05 6.95 6.95 3.13 3.26 3.31 3.31 21.59 22.96 23.00

9.72European Union - 28 15.109.700.500.3773.969.74 9.61 9.57 6.06 6.60 7.66 7.73 58.90 64.26 73.59

1.64 France 17.692.60-0.57-0.1017.301.75 1.78 1.73 9.22 8.38 9.80 10.03 15.15 14.70 17.40

0.97 Italy 15.311.090.000.008.200.90 0.86 0.86 7.82 7.90 9.53 9.53 7.59 7.11 8.20

1.19 Hungary 36.802.481.100.109.201.25 1.23 1.23 3.98 5.36 7.43 7.51 4.74 6.73 9.10

2.73 Romania 2.780.300.000.0011.102.60 2.55 2.55 2.23 4.15 4.35 4.35 6.10 10.80 11.10

0.54 Poland 0.000.000.000.004.000.61 0.60 0.60 7.35 6.51 6.67 6.67 4.00 4.00 4.00

8.91India -9.05-2.194.761.0022.009.50 8.60 9.00 2.50 2.55 2.44 2.44 22.26 24.19 21.00

1.42Canada -18.98-2.690.000.0011.501.48 1.23 1.23 9.21 9.59 9.35 9.35 13.06 14.19 11.50

3.00Indonesia 1.100.100.000.009.203.12 3.12 3.12 2.83 2.92 2.95 2.95 8.50 9.10 9.20

4.37Ukraine -12.62-3.900.000.0027.004.83 4.60 4.60 4.79 6.40 5.87 5.87 20.92 30.90 27.00

1.30Serbia 7.030.450.000.006.851.25 1.28 1.28 2.88 5.12 5.37 5.37 3.75 6.40 6.85

0.75Egypt -0.86-0.050.000.005.750.71 0.71 0.71 7.73 8.12 8.10 8.10 5.80 5.80 5.75

2.56Philippines 4.890.370.000.007.902.58 2.63 2.63 2.84 2.91 3.01 3.01 7.26 7.53 7.90

1.16Vietnam 6.250.330.000.005.631.20 1.25 1.25 4.15 4.43 4.50 4.50 4.80 5.29 5.63

1.08Thailand 0.000.000.000.004.901.12 1.10 1.10 4.26 4.38 4.45 4.45 4.60 4.90 4.90

1.94Russia 3.140.370.000.0012.002.32 2.60 2.60 4.24 5.01 4.62 4.62 8.21 11.64 12.00

Sub-Saharan Africa

3.24 South Africa -8.47-1.250.000.0013.503.10 3.20 3.20 3.82 4.76 4.22 4.22 12.37 14.75 13.50

4.16 Nigeria -2.60-0.200.000.007.504.25 4.25 4.25 1.83 1.81 1.76 1.76 7.63 7.70 7.50

2.01 Ethiopia -12.76-0.950.000.006.502.68 2.15 2.40 3.06 2.78 3.02 2.71 6.16 7.45 6.50

0.96 Zimbabwe 62.500.500.000.001.300.95 1.30 1.30 1.01 0.84 1.00 1.00 0.97 0.80 1.30

0.53Turkey -9.80-0.500.000.004.600.58 0.55 0.55 8.38 8.79 8.36 8.36 4.40 5.10 4.60

30.49Others 0.010.000.000.0059.8430.46 30.45 30.45 1.91 1.96 1.96 1.96 58.25 59.83 59.84


Table 05 Barley Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

50.19World -3.87-5.620.260.36139.7450.72 48.93 49.21 2.59 2.87 2.85 2.84 129.81 145.36 139.38

1.33United States -18.44-0.870.000.003.851.23 0.99 0.99 3.60 3.84 3.89 3.89 4.77 4.72 3.85

48.87Total Foreign -3.38-4.750.260.36135.8949.49 47.94 48.22 2.56 2.84 2.83 2.82 125.04 140.64 135.53

none

7.63Russia 26.714.110.000.0019.508.02 8.20 8.20 1.83 1.92 2.38 2.38 13.95 15.39 19.50

12.53European Union - 28 0.480.290.100.0659.9312.36 12.39 12.44 4.38 4.83 4.83 4.82 54.88 59.64 59.87

1.68 Germany 12.131.260.000.0011.631.57 1.59 1.59 6.19 6.59 7.33 7.33 10.39 10.37 11.63

1.68 France 13.431.390.000.0011.701.64 1.77 1.77 6.74 6.31 6.62 6.62 11.34 10.32 11.70

2.69 Spain -31.08-3.13-0.94-0.076.932.77 2.76 2.79 2.21 3.63 2.54 2.49 5.96 10.06 7.00

1.00 United Kingdom -1.30-0.090.000.007.001.21 1.08 1.08 5.51 5.84 6.48 6.48 5.52 7.09 7.00

0.72 Denmark -14.62-0.580.000.003.400.69 0.60 0.60 5.56 5.78 5.67 5.67 4.01 3.98 3.40

1.16 Poland 12.070.350.000.003.250.82 0.85 0.85 3.60 3.54 3.82 3.82 4.18 2.90 3.25

0.38 Czech Republic 23.900.380.000.001.980.35 0.35 0.35 4.23 4.57 5.64 5.64 1.62 1.59 1.98

0.45 Finland -6.93-0.130.000.001.800.50 0.50 0.50 3.50 3.90 3.60 3.60 1.59 1.93 1.80

0.37 Sweden -17.23-0.330.000.001.600.39 0.33 0.33 4.61 5.01 4.85 4.85 1.70 1.93 1.60

0.25 Italy 24.270.170.000.000.850.19 0.22 0.22 3.82 3.62 3.86 3.86 0.94 0.68 0.85

0.28 Hungary 18.430.200.000.001.280.27 0.30 0.30 3.61 4.06 4.26 4.26 1.00 1.08 1.28

0.15 Austria 8.990.070.000.000.800.14 0.15 0.15 4.38 5.13 5.33 5.33 0.66 0.73 0.80

3.29Ukraine 24.321.840.000.009.403.23 3.20 3.20 2.11 2.34 2.94 2.94 6.94 7.56 9.40

2.75Canada -30.45-3.120.000.007.122.65 2.14 2.14 2.91 3.86 3.33 3.33 8.01 10.24 7.12

3.64Australia -20.33-1.940.000.007.603.92 3.80 3.80 2.05 2.43 2.00 2.00 7.47 9.54 7.60

3.30Turkey -45.21-3.300.000.004.003.33 3.40 3.40 1.67 2.19 1.18 1.18 5.50 7.30 4.00

0.49China 3.330.050.000.001.550.45 0.45 0.45 3.32 3.33 3.44 3.44 1.63 1.50 1.55

1.68Iran 0.000.000.000.003.201.58 1.58 1.58 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03 3.40 3.20 3.20

1.89Morocco -37.04-1.000.000.001.701.69 1.44 1.44 0.63 1.60 1.18 1.18 1.20 2.70 1.70

1.60Kazakhstan -1.54-0.040.000.002.501.84 1.90 1.90 0.94 1.38 1.32 1.32 1.50 2.54 2.50

1.02Ethiopia 2.290.0516.670.302.101.21 1.02 1.25 1.75 1.70 1.76 1.68 1.78 2.05 1.80

0.56Belarus 25.450.430.000.002.100.57 0.60 0.60 3.44 2.94 3.50 3.50 1.92 1.67 2.10

0.77India 3.430.060.000.001.810.78 0.81 0.81 2.10 2.24 2.23 2.23 1.62 1.75 1.81

1.50Argentina -36.84-1.750.000.003.001.27 0.90 0.90 3.33 3.74 3.33 3.33 5.00 4.75 3.00

0.33Mexico 0.000.000.000.000.550.22 0.22 0.22 3.15 2.56 2.56 2.56 1.03 0.55 0.55

0.60Iraq 5.930.060.000.001.001.07 1.15 1.15 0.83 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.50 0.94 1.00

1.00Algeria -13.33-0.200.000.001.300.90 0.80 0.80 1.50 1.67 1.63 1.63 1.50 1.50 1.30

4.29Others -3.61-0.280.000.007.534.41 3.95 3.95 1.68 1.77 1.91 1.91 7.22 7.82 7.53


Table 06 Oats Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

9.45World -5.38-1.27-0.66-0.1522.339.68 9.43 9.42 2.23 2.44 2.38 2.37 21.11 23.60 22.48

0.41United States 7.780.070.000.001.010.41 0.42 0.42 2.19 2.30 2.43 2.43 0.89 0.94 1.01

9.04Total Foreign -5.92-1.34-0.69-0.1521.329.27 9.02 9.00 2.24 2.44 2.38 2.37 20.21 22.66 21.47

none

2.86Russia 1.380.070.000.005.003.01 3.00 3.00 1.41 1.64 1.67 1.67 4.03 4.93 5.00

0.99Canada -25.50-1.000.000.002.911.11 0.91 0.91 2.85 3.51 3.20 3.20 2.81 3.91 2.91

2.67European Union - 28 -6.19-0.52-1.86-0.157.872.62 2.61 2.59 2.97 3.20 3.08 3.04 7.91 8.39 8.02

0.51 Poland 12.500.150.000.001.350.43 0.48 0.48 2.86 2.76 2.84 2.84 1.47 1.20 1.35

0.31 Finland -10.50-0.130.000.001.100.35 0.34 0.34 3.40 3.50 3.28 3.28 1.07 1.23 1.10

0.44 Spain -30.47-0.29-18.67-0.150.670.43 0.44 0.43 1.56 2.23 1.86 1.56 0.68 0.97 0.83

0.15 Germany -0.160.000.000.000.630.13 0.14 0.14 5.22 4.74 4.63 4.63 0.76 0.63 0.63

0.20 Sweden -18.41-0.160.000.000.700.20 0.17 0.17 3.82 4.40 4.24 4.24 0.74 0.86 0.70

0.12 United Kingdom -17.01-0.160.000.000.800.18 0.14 0.14 5.14 5.48 5.71 5.71 0.63 0.96 0.80

0.08 France 5.790.030.000.000.460.09 0.10 0.10 4.83 4.60 4.57 4.57 0.40 0.43 0.46

0.12 Italy -13.22-0.030.000.000.200.09 0.08 0.08 2.43 2.52 2.40 2.40 0.29 0.23 0.20

0.05 Denmark 2.940.010.000.000.280.06 0.06 0.06 4.94 4.86 4.67 4.67 0.25 0.27 0.28

0.19 Romania 1.410.010.000.000.360.18 0.19 0.19 1.75 1.97 1.95 1.95 0.34 0.36 0.36

0.05 Czech Republic 16.550.020.000.000.160.04 0.04 0.04 3.37 3.16 3.86 3.86 0.17 0.14 0.16

0.05 Hungary 2.940.000.000.000.140.05 0.05 0.05 2.64 2.67 2.64 2.64 0.14 0.14 0.14

0.03 Austria 3.450.000.000.000.090.02 0.02 0.02 3.72 3.78 3.91 3.91 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.02 Ireland -5.26-0.010.000.000.180.03 0.03 0.03 6.54 7.31 7.20 7.20 0.16 0.19 0.18

0.07 Lithuania 11.660.0212.350.020.180.07 0.07 0.08 2.31 2.23 2.25 2.39 0.16 0.16 0.16

0.73Australia -13.27-0.180.000.001.150.74 0.73 0.73 1.54 1.78 1.58 1.58 1.12 1.33 1.15

0.30Ukraine 24.200.110.000.000.580.24 0.24 0.24 2.09 1.94 2.47 2.47 0.63 0.47 0.58

0.20China 3.450.020.000.000.600.20 0.20 0.20 3.00 2.90 3.00 3.00 0.60 0.58 0.60

0.13Belarus 27.840.100.000.000.450.13 0.14 0.14 3.22 2.65 3.21 3.21 0.42 0.35 0.45

0.17Brazil 0.000.000.000.000.380.17 0.17 0.17 2.14 2.24 2.24 2.24 0.36 0.38 0.38

0.26Argentina 3.370.020.000.000.460.22 0.23 0.23 1.91 2.07 2.00 2.00 0.50 0.45 0.46

0.13Chile 14.750.090.000.000.700.14 0.13 0.13 5.35 4.49 5.60 5.60 0.68 0.61 0.70

0.07Norway 0.000.000.000.000.240.07 0.07 0.07 3.42 3.42 3.42 3.42 0.24 0.24 0.24

0.09Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.210.09 0.09 0.09 2.36 2.33 2.33 2.33 0.21 0.21 0.21

0.15Kazakhstan -18.03-0.060.000.000.250.22 0.20 0.20 1.33 1.39 1.25 1.25 0.20 0.31 0.25

0.03Serbia 0.000.000.000.000.070.03 0.03 0.03 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 0.07 0.07 0.07

0.28Others 0.000.000.000.000.460.28 0.28 0.28 1.61 1.63 1.63 1.63 0.44 0.46 0.46


Table 07 Rye Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

5.03World -5.23-0.83-0.35-0.0515.005.44 5.17 5.15 2.74 2.91 2.91 2.91 13.77 15.83 15.05

0.10United States -5.67-0.010.000.000.180.11 0.10 0.10 1.64 1.72 1.76 1.76 0.17 0.19 0.18

4.93Total Foreign -5.23-0.82-0.36-0.0514.825.33 5.07 5.05 2.76 2.94 2.93 2.94 13.61 15.64 14.87

none

2.38European Union - 28 -13.72-1.40-0.60-0.058.792.56 2.19 2.16 3.69 3.98 4.05 4.06 8.76 10.19 8.84

1.04 Poland -13.64-0.450.000.002.851.16 0.95 0.95 2.77 2.85 3.00 3.00 2.89 3.30 2.85

0.71 Germany -16.70-0.780.000.003.900.79 0.64 0.64 5.47 5.96 6.13 6.13 3.88 4.68 3.90

0.16 Spain -40.21-0.15-23.67-0.070.230.16 0.16 0.13 1.59 2.47 1.89 1.71 0.26 0.38 0.30

0.06 Lithuania 25.000.020.000.000.120.05 0.05 0.05 2.80 1.96 2.40 2.40 0.16 0.10 0.12

0.04 Latvia 15.790.010.000.000.090.03 0.03 0.03 3.35 2.62 2.93 2.93 0.12 0.08 0.09

0.03 France -9.79-0.010.000.000.130.03 0.03 0.03 5.00 4.93 4.96 4.96 0.16 0.14 0.13

0.07 Denmark -0.750.000.000.000.530.09 0.09 0.09 5.91 6.14 6.24 6.24 0.38 0.53 0.53

0.03 Czech Republic -20.45-0.040.000.000.140.04 0.03 0.03 4.90 4.76 5.60 5.60 0.15 0.18 0.14

0.05 Austria 4.260.010.000.000.250.06 0.06 0.06 4.18 4.20 4.45 4.45 0.21 0.24 0.25

0.02 Sweden 0.670.000.000.000.150.02 0.02 0.02 6.36 7.45 7.50 7.50 0.14 0.15 0.15

0.04 Hungary -4.76-0.010.000.000.100.04 0.04 0.04 2.23 3.00 2.86 2.86 0.08 0.11 0.10

0.02 Slovakia -34.48-0.030.000.000.060.02 0.02 0.02 3.06 3.95 3.80 3.80 0.05 0.09 0.06

0.02 Finland 15.380.000.000.000.030.01 0.01 0.01 3.10 2.17 2.50 2.50 0.07 0.03 0.03

0.01 United Kingdom 0.000.000.000.000.040.01 0.01 0.01 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 0.04 0.04 0.04

0.01 Romania 9.090.000.000.000.020.01 0.01 0.01 2.00 2.75 3.00 3.00 0.02 0.02 0.02

0.02 Greece 0.000.000.000.000.030.02 0.02 0.02 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.02 Portugal 0.000.000.000.000.020.02 0.02 0.02 0.77 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.02 0.02 0.02

1.42Russia 19.050.640.000.004.001.78 2.00 2.00 1.50 1.89 2.00 2.00 2.13 3.36 4.00

0.39Belarus 23.460.150.000.000.800.32 0.33 0.33 2.76 2.01 2.42 2.42 1.08 0.65 0.80

0.30Ukraine -29.47-0.190.000.000.450.28 0.18 0.18 2.27 2.29 2.50 2.50 0.68 0.64 0.45

0.12Canada -12.56-0.030.000.000.200.09 0.08 0.08 2.74 2.56 2.38 2.38 0.34 0.22 0.20

0.14Turkey 0.000.000.000.000.350.14 0.14 0.14 2.59 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.37 0.35 0.35

0.02Argentina -23.08-0.010.000.000.040.04 0.03 0.03 1.74 1.49 1.60 1.60 0.04 0.05 0.04

0.05Kazakhstan 16.280.010.000.000.050.04 0.04 0.04 1.00 1.10 1.25 1.25 0.05 0.04 0.05

0.06Australia 0.000.000.000.000.020.04 0.04 0.04 0.70 0.57 0.57 0.57 0.04 0.02 0.02

0.00Switzerland 0.000.000.000.000.010.00 0.00 0.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 0.01 0.01 0.01

0.05Others 9.800.010.000.000.110.05 0.05 0.05 2.26 2.17 2.33 2.33 0.10 0.10 0.11


Table 08 Sorghum Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

37.97World 3.091.860.400.2562.1340.49 39.96 39.88 1.52 1.49 1.55 1.56 57.77 60.26 61.88

2.02United States 10.251.026.040.6310.992.67 2.50 2.59 3.11 3.74 4.15 4.24 6.29 9.97 10.36

35.95Total Foreign 1.670.84-0.74-0.3851.1437.83 37.47 37.29 1.43 1.33 1.38 1.37 51.48 50.30 51.52

none

Sub-Saharan Africa

4.77 Nigeria -3.08-0.200.000.006.305.00 5.00 5.00 1.25 1.30 1.26 1.26 5.94 6.50 6.30

4.10 Sudan 55.621.250.000.003.505.60 5.60 5.60 1.10 0.40 0.63 0.63 4.52 2.25 3.50

1.71 Ethiopia -2.77-0.110.000.004.001.82 1.80 1.80 2.11 2.26 2.22 2.22 3.60 4.11 4.00

1.79 Burkina -2.06-0.040.000.001.901.80 1.80 1.80 1.08 1.08 1.06 1.06 1.92 1.94 1.90

0.84 Tanzania 0.960.010.000.000.840.90 0.90 0.90 1.00 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.84 0.83 0.84

3.11 Niger -6.76-0.090.000.001.203.00 3.00 3.00 0.44 0.43 0.40 0.40 1.38 1.29 1.20

0.37 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.320.35 0.35 0.35 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.34 0.32 0.32

0.62 Mozambique 19.680.040.000.000.230.63 0.62 0.62 0.39 0.30 0.36 0.36 0.24 0.19 0.23

0.23 Ghana 8.300.020.000.000.300.23 0.25 0.25 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.20 0.28 0.28 0.30

0.06 South Africa -16.04-0.040.000.000.230.08 0.08 0.08 2.33 3.39 2.81 2.81 0.15 0.27 0.23

South Asia

6.30 India -4.76-0.250.000.005.005.90 5.50 5.50 0.84 0.89 0.91 0.91 5.30 5.25 5.00

0.24 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.000.150.24 0.24 0.24 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.15 0.15 0.15

South America

1.05 Argentina -11.90-0.500.000.003.701.00 0.85 0.85 4.48 4.20 4.35 4.35 4.70 4.20 3.70

0.80 Brazil 5.820.11-16.67-0.402.000.73 0.90 0.73 2.62 2.59 2.67 2.74 2.10 1.89 2.40

1.64Mexico -9.41-0.800.000.007.702.07 1.90 1.90 3.76 4.10 4.05 4.05 6.17 8.50 7.70

0.62China 0.000.000.000.002.700.65 0.67 0.67 4.10 4.15 4.03 4.03 2.56 2.70 2.70

0.65Australia 80.670.890.000.002.000.49 0.66 0.66 3.44 2.25 3.03 3.03 2.23 1.11 2.00

0.14Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.760.14 0.14 0.14 5.29 5.29 5.29 5.29 0.76 0.76 0.76

0.11European Union - 28 19.480.122.790.020.740.12 0.13 0.13 4.19 5.13 5.38 5.62 0.47 0.62 0.72

0.04 France 44.090.123.880.020.400.05 0.06 0.06 5.71 5.47 6.05 6.38 0.24 0.28 0.39

0.04 Italy 0.000.000.000.000.230.04 0.04 0.04 4.27 6.22 6.22 6.22 0.16 0.23 0.23

6.78Others 6.070.430.000.007.597.08 7.07 7.07 1.16 1.01 1.07 1.07 7.83 7.16 7.59



Table 09 Rice Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

158.17World -0.31-1.490.050.23475.47160.87 160.58 160.61 4.45 4.42 4.41 4.41 471.88 476.96 475.24

1.08United States 15.550.95-0.010.007.071.00 1.18 1.18 8.37 8.62 8.51 8.49 6.35 6.12 7.07

157.09Total Foreign -0.52-2.440.050.23468.40159.87 159.40 159.43 4.42 4.39 4.38 4.38 465.53 470.84 468.17

none

East Asia

30.14 China 1.381.970.000.00144.5030.31 30.31 30.31 6.78 6.72 6.81 6.81 143.00 142.53 144.50

1.58 Japan -1.69-0.130.000.007.701.60 1.59 1.59 6.74 6.73 6.65 6.65 7.76 7.83 7.70

0.85 Korea, South 0.240.010.000.004.240.83 0.82 0.82 6.37 6.76 6.91 6.91 4.01 4.23 4.24

0.58 Korea, North -9.57-0.180.000.001.700.57 0.57 0.57 4.62 5.07 4.63 4.63 1.74 1.88 1.70

South Asia

42.41 India -4.26-4.540.000.00102.0043.94 43.50 43.50 3.72 3.64 3.52 3.52 105.24 106.54 102.00

11.65 Bangladesh 0.610.210.000.0034.6011.77 11.80 11.80 4.35 4.38 4.40 4.40 33.82 34.39 34.60

2.40 Pakistan -2.99-0.200.000.006.502.76 2.76 2.76 3.63 3.64 3.53 3.53 5.80 6.70 6.50

Southeast Asia

12.19 Indonesia 0.550.200.000.0036.5012.10 12.16 12.16 4.72 4.72 4.73 4.73 36.55 36.30 36.50

7.86 Vietnam 0.320.090.000.0028.257.79 7.77 7.77 5.60 5.79 5.82 5.82 27.54 28.16 28.25

10.84 Thailand 0.200.040.000.0020.5010.92 10.90 10.90 2.82 2.84 2.85 2.85 20.20 20.46 20.50

7.04 Burma 1.610.190.000.0012.157.05 7.07 7.07 2.60 2.65 2.69 2.69 11.72 11.96 12.15

4.70 Philippines 2.880.340.000.0012.204.80 4.89 4.89 3.86 3.92 3.96 3.96 11.43 11.86 12.20

2.98 Cambodia 3.700.180.000.004.902.97 3.05 3.05 2.45 2.49 2.51 2.51 4.67 4.73 4.90

0.93 Laos 5.800.090.000.001.550.87 0.90 0.90 2.81 2.68 2.73 2.73 1.66 1.47 1.55

0.69 Malaysia 2.560.050.000.001.800.69 0.69 0.69 3.79 3.91 4.02 4.02 1.69 1.76 1.80

South America

2.39 Brazil 0.000.00-0.60-0.058.302.40 2.45 2.40 4.95 5.09 5.01 5.09 8.04 8.30 8.35

0.39 Peru -2.60-0.060.000.002.100.41 0.40 0.40 7.72 7.72 7.61 7.61 2.10 2.16 2.10

Sub-Saharan Africa

2.00 Nigeria -8.01-0.220.000.002.552.50 2.30 2.30 1.88 1.76 1.76 1.76 2.37 2.77 2.55

1.55 Madagascar 19.080.440.000.002.751.30 1.45 1.45 2.94 2.78 2.97 2.97 2.91 2.31 2.75

0.45European Union - 28 0.460.011.020.021.970.44 0.43 0.43 6.73 6.46 6.53 6.60 2.10 1.97 1.95

0.24 Italy 0.100.000.000.001.000.22 0.22 0.22 6.60 6.60 6.49 6.49 1.09 1.00 1.00

0.11 Spain 1.170.012.900.020.600.11 0.11 0.11 7.96 7.53 7.61 7.83 0.63 0.60 0.59

0.77Egypt -5.26-0.250.000.004.500.77 0.65 0.65 8.80 8.94 10.03 10.03 4.68 4.75 4.50

0.53Iran 2.000.030.000.001.680.59 0.60 0.60 4.43 4.24 4.25 4.25 1.54 1.65 1.68

12.17Others -2.70-0.711.040.2625.4512.49 12.36 12.44 3.10 3.16 3.08 3.09 24.99 26.16 25.19

Yield is on a rough basis, before the milling process

Production is on a milled basis, after the milling process


Table 10 Total Oilseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

--World Total 5.5828.140.311.65532.37-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 475.75 504.22 530.72

--Total Foreign 2.429.820.331.35415.03-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 382.42 405.21 413.68

--Oilseed, Copra -0.88-0.050.000.005.53-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5.80 5.58 5.53

--Oilseed, Palm Kernel 5.700.890.000.0016.57-- -- -- -- -- -- -- 14.83 15.67 16.57

none

226.83Major OilSeeds 5.6527.300.321.65510.27229.75 234.96 234.84 2.01 2.10 2.16 2.17 455.12 482.97 508.63

36.68United States 18.5118.330.260.30117.3435.44 39.52 39.32 2.54 2.79 2.96 2.98 93.32 99.02 117.04

none

190.16Foreign Oilseeds 2.348.970.341.35392.93194.31 195.44 195.52 1.90 1.98 2.00 2.01 361.80 383.96 391.59

56.61South America 6.2710.200.971.66172.8259.64 61.11 61.17 2.72 2.73 2.80 2.83 153.71 162.62 171.16

28.77 Brazil 9.318.401.571.5398.6031.47 32.73 32.75 2.94 2.87 2.97 3.01 84.67 90.19 97.07

21.76 Argentina 2.361.360.000.0058.8822.04 22.26 22.26 2.47 2.61 2.64 2.64 53.68 57.52 58.88

3.34 Paraguay 4.790.400.000.008.753.32 3.48 3.48 2.53 2.52 2.52 2.52 8.44 8.35 8.75

1.26 Bolivia 4.120.114.910.132.781.18 1.20 1.24 2.29 2.26 2.21 2.24 2.88 2.67 2.65

25.43China -2.81-1.660.000.0057.2624.78 24.28 24.28 2.35 2.38 2.36 2.36 59.79 58.92 57.26

39.53South Asia 1.690.70-1.63-0.7042.1541.32 40.68 40.57 1.07 1.00 1.05 1.04 42.27 41.45 42.85

35.25 India 1.330.48-2.14-0.8036.5537.18 36.48 36.43 1.04 0.97 1.02 1.00 36.80 36.07 37.35

3.96 Pakistan 4.300.221.910.105.343.87 3.87 3.87 1.30 1.32 1.35 1.38 5.15 5.12 5.24

11.40European Union - 28 11.553.661.020.3635.3512.04 11.91 11.94 2.47 2.63 2.94 2.96 28.15 31.69 34.99

2.32 France 20.181.220.590.047.282.25 2.25 2.24 3.07 2.69 3.22 3.25 7.14 6.06 7.24

1.33 Germany 8.170.480.000.006.301.49 1.42 1.42 3.67 3.92 4.43 4.43 4.88 5.82 6.30

0.84 Poland 10.700.300.000.003.100.96 0.94 0.94 2.65 2.91 3.31 3.31 2.22 2.80 3.10

1.30 Romania 15.410.460.670.023.481.47 1.52 1.52 1.34 2.06 2.28 2.29 1.75 3.01 3.45

0.81 Hungary 16.070.330.000.002.410.84 0.89 0.89 2.18 2.48 2.73 2.73 1.77 2.08 2.41

0.76 United Kingdom 17.300.370.000.002.500.72 0.68 0.68 3.38 2.97 3.67 3.67 2.56 2.13 2.50

19.87Former Soviet Union - 12 -4.13-1.440.000.0033.4221.07 21.63 21.63 1.41 1.65 1.54 1.54 27.95 34.86 33.42

8.45 Russia -4.29-0.580.000.0013.009.11 9.40 9.40 1.29 1.49 1.38 1.38 10.87 13.58 13.00

7.46 Ukraine -4.34-0.730.000.0016.007.95 8.20 8.20 1.70 2.10 1.95 1.95 12.71 16.73 16.00

1.35 Uzbekistan -2.31-0.040.000.001.571.29 1.29 1.29 1.31 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.77 1.61 1.57

10.52Canada -7.34-1.720.000.0021.669.90 10.34 10.34 1.81 2.36 2.09 2.09 19.04 23.38 21.66

16.82Africa 0.750.110.210.0315.2216.25 16.35 16.46 0.89 0.93 0.93 0.92 15.00 15.11 15.19

3.29 Nigeria 0.030.000.000.003.563.23 3.24 3.24 1.15 1.10 1.10 1.10 3.79 3.56 3.56

3.52Southeast Asia -0.12-0.010.000.005.183.46 3.46 3.46 1.39 1.50 1.50 1.50 4.90 5.19 5.18

1.14 Indonesia -2.20-0.040.000.001.781.12 1.09 1.09 1.54 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.76 1.82 1.78

3.80Australia -19.71-1.020.000.004.153.16 3.02 3.02 1.51 1.64 1.37 1.37 5.72 5.17 4.15

2.67Others 2.470.140.000.005.722.69 2.65 2.65 1.97 2.07 2.16 2.16 5.27 5.58 5.72

World Total and Total Foreign: (Major Oilseeds plus copra and palm kernel)

Major Oilseeds: (soybeans, sunflowerseeds, peanuts(inshell), cottonseed and rapeseed)

Table 11 Soybean Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

109.32World 10.8030.630.501.56314.37113.33 118.06 117.98 2.46 2.50 2.65 2.66 268.77 283.74 312.81

30.82United States 18.1916.630.270.29108.0130.86 33.75 33.61 2.69 2.96 3.19 3.21 82.79 91.39 107.73

78.50Total Foreign 7.2814.010.621.27206.3682.47 84.31 84.37 2.37 2.33 2.43 2.45 185.97 192.35 205.08

none

South America

27.70 Brazil 10.158.801.601.5095.5030.10 31.50 31.50 2.96 2.88 2.98 3.03 82.00 86.70 94.00

19.40 Argentina 1.851.000.000.0055.0019.80 20.00 20.00 2.54 2.73 2.75 2.75 49.30 54.00 55.00

3.16 Paraguay 3.660.300.000.008.503.20 3.30 3.30 2.60 2.56 2.58 2.58 8.20 8.20 8.50

1.09 Bolivia 12.500.308.000.202.701.00 1.10 1.16 2.42 2.40 2.27 2.33 2.63 2.40 2.50

1.30 Uruguay -2.86-0.100.000.003.401.45 1.25 1.25 2.81 2.41 2.72 2.72 3.65 3.50 3.40

East Asia

7.17 China -3.28-0.400.000.0011.806.85 6.70 6.70 1.82 1.78 1.76 1.76 13.05 12.20 11.80

0.08 Korea, South -17.53-0.030.000.000.130.08 0.07 0.07 1.52 1.93 1.72 1.72 0.12 0.15 0.13

0.12 Korea, North 1.230.000.000.000.170.12 0.12 0.12 1.46 1.41 1.40 1.40 0.17 0.16 0.17

0.13 Japan 3.540.010.000.000.210.13 0.13 0.13 1.80 1.56 1.64 1.64 0.24 0.20 0.21

10.70India 10.531.00-4.55-0.5010.5012.20 11.00 11.00 1.14 0.78 1.00 0.95 12.20 9.50 11.00

1.68Canada 12.890.690.000.006.051.86 2.24 2.24 3.03 2.88 2.71 2.71 5.09 5.36 6.05


1.35 Russia 52.810.860.000.002.501.20 1.80 1.80 1.39 1.36 1.39 1.39 1.88 1.64 2.50

1.41 Ukraine 36.991.030.000.003.801.35 1.75 1.75 1.71 2.05 2.17 2.17 2.41 2.77 3.80

Southeast Asia

0.45 Indonesia -4.62-0.030.000.000.620.45 0.45 0.45 1.33 1.44 1.38 1.38 0.60 0.65 0.62

0.12 Vietnam 7.950.010.000.000.190.12 0.13 0.13 1.42 1.47 1.46 1.46 0.17 0.18 0.19

0.05 Thailand 0.000.000.000.000.070.04 0.04 0.04 1.70 1.67 1.75 1.75 0.09 0.07 0.07

0.17 Burma 0.000.000.000.000.250.17 0.17 0.17 1.23 1.47 1.47 1.47 0.21 0.25 0.25

0.42European Union - 28 39.540.498.890.141.720.47 0.59 0.60 2.25 2.62 2.68 2.85 0.95 1.23 1.58

0.15 Italy 44.030.273.480.030.890.18 0.25 0.26 2.76 3.54 3.51 3.50 0.42 0.62 0.86

0.04 France 95.450.1153.570.080.220.04 0.07 0.07 2.81 2.62 2.00 2.99 0.10 0.11 0.14

Sub-Saharan Africa

0.52 South Africa -2.54-0.020.000.000.920.50 0.56 0.56 1.52 1.88 1.64 1.64 0.79 0.94 0.92

0.57 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.000.450.44 0.44 0.44 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.02 0.58 0.45 0.45

0.15 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.170.15 0.15 0.15 1.00 1.11 1.11 1.11 0.15 0.17 0.17

0.17Serbia 5.000.020.000.000.420.17 0.17 0.17 1.70 2.42 2.55 2.55 0.28 0.40 0.42

0.14Mexico 14.170.040.000.000.290.16 0.17 0.17 1.75 1.60 1.76 1.76 0.25 0.25 0.29

0.07Iran 4.840.010.000.000.200.08 0.08 0.08 2.35 2.45 2.44 2.44 0.17 0.19 0.20

0.39Others 4.310.03-7.43-0.070.820.39 0.42 0.41 2.08 2.02 2.13 2.03 0.81 0.79 0.89


Table 12 Cottonseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

33.51World -1.03-0.47-0.30-0.1444.8831.89 33.40 33.34 1.39 1.42 1.35 1.35 46.50 45.35 45.02

3.77United States 26.441.011.070.054.823.05 4.00 3.93 1.36 1.25 1.19 1.23 5.14 3.81 4.77

29.74Total Foreign -3.55-1.47-0.46-0.1940.0628.83 29.41 29.41 1.39 1.44 1.37 1.36 41.36 41.53 40.25

none

5.30China -8.40-1.080.000.0011.764.80 4.40 4.40 2.59 2.67 2.67 2.67 13.72 12.84 11.76

South Asia

12.00 India -0.39-0.05-2.27-0.3012.9011.70 12.75 12.70 1.01 1.11 1.04 1.02 12.10 12.95 13.20

3.00 Pakistan 7.320.302.330.104.403.00 3.05 3.05 1.33 1.37 1.41 1.44 4.00 4.10 4.30


1.35 Uzbekistan -2.31-0.040.000.001.571.29 1.29 1.29 1.31 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.77 1.61 1.57

0.60 Turkmenistan 0.000.000.000.000.590.58 0.58 0.58 1.04 1.03 1.03 1.03 0.63 0.59 0.59

0.20 Tajikistan -10.29-0.020.000.000.160.19 0.18 0.18 1.08 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.22 0.18 0.16

0.15 Kazakhstan -27.07-0.040.000.000.100.14 0.13 0.13 1.10 0.96 0.76 0.76 0.16 0.13 0.10

South America

0.90 Brazil -11.03-0.320.000.002.581.12 1.00 1.00 2.48 2.59 2.58 2.58 2.23 2.90 2.58

0.36 Argentina -10.71-0.050.000.000.380.56 0.50 0.50 0.72 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.26 0.42 0.38

Middle East

0.41 Turkey 38.650.290.000.001.030.33 0.43 0.43 2.12 2.24 2.39 2.39 0.87 0.74 1.03

0.13 Syria -64.86-0.180.000.000.100.11 0.06 0.06 2.72 2.51 1.62 1.62 0.34 0.28 0.10

0.11 Iran 6.670.010.000.000.100.10 0.11 0.11 1.14 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.12 0.09 0.10

0.45Australia -46.15-0.600.000.000.700.44 0.24 0.24 3.20 2.98 2.98 2.98 1.42 1.30 0.70

0.36European Union - 28 7.930.040.000.000.520.31 0.36 0.36 1.36 1.54 1.45 1.45 0.48 0.48 0.52

0.29 Greece 4.000.020.000.000.420.25 0.28 0.28 1.33 1.63 1.49 1.49 0.38 0.40 0.42

0.07 Spain 28.210.020.000.000.100.06 0.08 0.08 1.47 1.22 1.33 1.33 0.10 0.08 0.10

Sub-Saharan Africa

0.59 Burkina 1.170.00-3.34-0.010.350.65 0.65 0.63 0.57 0.53 0.56 0.55 0.34 0.34 0.36

0.52 Mali 17.430.040.000.000.280.48 0.57 0.57 0.47 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.25 0.24 0.28

0.21 Cameroon 4.000.010.000.000.260.22 0.22 0.22 1.10 1.14 1.18 1.18 0.23 0.25 0.26

0.05 Sudan -20.48-0.020.000.000.070.06 0.07 0.07 0.82 1.34 0.99 0.99 0.04 0.08 0.07

0.30 Zimbabwe -5.00-0.010.000.000.100.26 0.23 0.23 0.36 0.39 0.41 0.41 0.11 0.10 0.10

0.30 Nigeria 0.880.000.000.000.110.29 0.30 0.30 0.47 0.40 0.38 0.38 0.14 0.11 0.11

0.25 Benin 4.210.010.000.000.200.27 0.28 0.28 0.73 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.18 0.19 0.20

0.08 Uganda 65.570.040.000.000.100.05 0.05 0.05 1.16 1.22 1.94 1.94 0.09 0.06 0.10

0.14Egypt 20.300.030.000.000.160.13 0.16 0.16 1.04 1.02 1.03 1.03 0.15 0.13 0.16

0.16Mexico 29.940.090.000.000.410.12 0.18 0.18 2.27 2.64 2.33 2.33 0.35 0.31 0.41

0.35Burma 0.000.000.000.000.370.30 0.30 0.30 1.11 1.24 1.24 1.24 0.39 0.37 0.37

1.51Others 7.560.063.240.030.801.36 1.36 1.43 0.53 0.54 0.57 0.56 0.79 0.74 0.77


Table 13 Peanut Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

23.94World -1.77-0.710.280.1139.1323.75 23.22 23.26 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 40.12 39.84 39.02

0.65United States 24.830.473.280.082.360.42 0.53 0.54 4.72 4.49 4.33 4.41 3.06 1.89 2.29

23.29Total Foreign -3.10-1.180.090.0336.7723.33 22.69 22.73 1.59 1.63 1.62 1.62 37.06 37.94 36.73

none

4.64China -2.78-0.470.000.0016.504.63 4.70 4.70 3.60 3.66 3.51 3.51 16.69 16.97 16.50

South Asia

5.00 India -11.50-0.650.000.005.005.40 4.80 4.80 1.00 1.05 1.04 1.04 5.00 5.65 5.00

0.11 Pakistan 0.000.000.000.000.100.11 0.11 0.11 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.10 0.10 0.10

10.96Sub-Saharan Africa 0.260.030.340.039.9510.59 10.53 10.56 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.94 10.09 9.93 9.92

2.42 Nigeria 0.000.000.000.003.002.50 2.50 2.50 1.27 1.20 1.20 1.20 3.07 3.00 3.00

0.71 Senegal 2.110.020.000.000.730.77 0.77 0.77 0.98 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.69 0.71 0.73

0.41 Chad 0.000.000.000.000.400.50 0.50 0.50 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.37 0.40 0.40

0.35 Ghana 0.000.000.000.000.440.40 0.40 0.40 1.38 1.10 1.10 1.10 0.48 0.44 0.44

1.62 Sudan 0.000.000.000.000.851.00 1.00 1.00 0.64 0.85 0.85 0.85 1.03 0.85 0.85

0.48 Congo (Kinshasa) 0.000.000.000.000.370.48 0.48 0.48 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.37 0.37 0.37

0.36 Burkina 0.000.000.000.000.270.35 0.35 0.35 0.73 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.26 0.27 0.27

0.22 Guinea 0.000.000.000.000.260.21 0.21 0.21 1.38 1.24 1.24 1.24 0.30 0.26 0.26

0.41 Cameroon 0.000.000.000.000.550.40 0.40 0.40 1.39 1.38 1.38 1.38 0.57 0.55 0.55

0.34 Mali 0.000.000.000.000.330.35 0.35 0.35 0.95 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.33 0.33 0.33

0.35 Malawi -1.57-0.010.000.000.380.36 0.37 0.37 1.09 1.05 1.03 1.03 0.39 0.38 0.38

0.08 Cote d'Ivoire 0.000.000.000.000.090.08 0.08 0.08 1.21 1.13 1.13 1.13 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.30 Uganda 0.000.000.000.000.300.30 0.30 0.30 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.30 0.30 0.30

0.10 Central African Republic 0.000.000.000.000.150.10 0.10 0.10 1.55 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.15 0.15 0.15

0.13 Benin 0.000.000.000.000.090.13 0.13 0.13 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.08 0.09 0.09

0.39 Mozambique 0.000.000.000.000.110.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.74 Niger 2.040.010.000.000.350.78 0.74 0.74 0.39 0.44 0.47 0.47 0.29 0.34 0.35

0.05 South Africa 9.090.010.000.000.120.05 0.06 0.06 1.19 2.12 2.00 2.00 0.06 0.11 0.12

Southeast Asia

0.68 Indonesia -0.86-0.010.000.001.150.66 0.63 0.63 1.68 1.77 1.83 1.83 1.15 1.16 1.15

0.88 Burma 0.000.000.000.001.400.89 0.89 0.89 1.56 1.58 1.58 1.58 1.37 1.40 1.40

0.22 Vietnam 3.770.020.000.000.550.23 0.24 0.24 2.28 2.30 2.29 2.29 0.49 0.53 0.55

0.03 Thailand 0.000.000.000.000.050.03 0.03 0.03 1.53 1.67 1.67 1.67 0.05 0.05 0.05

South America

0.38 Argentina 0.300.000.000.001.000.38 0.36 0.36 2.67 2.64 2.78 2.78 1.02 1.00 1.00

0.10 Brazil -20.33-0.070.000.000.290.11 0.10 0.10 3.36 3.37 2.90 2.90 0.33 0.36 0.29

0.06Egypt 0.000.000.000.000.190.06 0.06 0.06 3.17 3.17 3.17 3.17 0.19 0.19 0.19

0.06Mexico 0.000.000.000.000.100.06 0.06 0.06 1.98 1.75 1.75 1.75 0.12 0.10 0.10

0.18Others -3.74-0.020.000.000.490.20 0.20 0.20 2.58 2.57 2.51 2.51 0.47 0.51 0.49


Table 14 Sunflowerseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

23.77World -6.89-2.960.100.0439.9524.66 23.89 23.89 1.51 1.74 1.67 1.67 35.98 42.91 39.92

0.75United States 9.600.09-9.70-0.111.010.59 0.61 0.61 1.67 1.55 1.82 1.65 1.24 0.92 1.11

23.02Total Foreign -7.25-3.040.380.1538.9524.06 23.28 23.28 1.51 1.75 1.67 1.67 34.73 41.99 38.80

none

12.61Former Soviet Union - 12 -14.10-3.280.000.0019.9513.52 13.20 13.20 1.40 1.72 1.51 1.51 17.66 23.23 19.95

6.13 Russia -14.72-1.550.000.009.006.80 6.50 6.50 1.30 1.55 1.38 1.38 7.96 10.55 9.00

5.50 Ukraine -13.79-1.600.000.0010.005.60 5.60 5.60 1.64 2.07 1.79 1.79 9.00 11.60 10.00

0.30 Moldova -9.82-0.050.000.000.450.30 0.30 0.30 0.99 1.67 1.50 1.50 0.30 0.50 0.45

0.68 Kazakhstan -12.74-0.070.000.000.500.82 0.80 0.80 0.59 0.70 0.63 0.63 0.40 0.57 0.50

1.94South America 8.800.24-1.50-0.052.951.70 1.72 1.72 1.85 1.60 1.74 1.72 3.58 2.72 3.00

1.62 Argentina 19.050.400.000.002.501.30 1.40 1.40 1.91 1.62 1.79 1.79 3.10 2.10 2.50

0.02 Uruguay 25.710.010.000.000.040.03 0.03 0.03 1.10 1.40 1.47 1.47 0.02 0.04 0.04

0.17 Bolivia -70.37-0.19-46.67-0.070.080.18 0.10 0.08 1.47 1.50 1.50 1.00 0.25 0.27 0.15

0.07 Brazil -2.17-0.0112.500.030.230.15 0.13 0.15 1.57 1.59 1.54 1.55 0.11 0.23 0.20

0.05 Paraguay 31.250.030.000.000.110.05 0.06 0.06 1.78 1.60 1.69 1.69 0.10 0.08 0.11

0.89China 2.040.050.000.002.500.97 0.98 0.98 2.61 2.54 2.56 2.56 2.32 2.45 2.50

4.29European Union - 28 1.800.162.160.199.044.51 4.20 4.21 1.65 1.97 2.11 2.15 7.09 8.88 8.85

0.68 France 0.700.01-0.56-0.011.590.77 0.68 0.66 2.31 2.05 2.37 2.41 1.57 1.58 1.60

0.61 Hungary 12.240.180.000.001.650.59 0.61 0.61 2.14 2.47 2.70 2.70 1.30 1.47 1.65

0.75 Spain -7.48-0.0811.740.100.950.85 0.80 0.80 0.85 1.21 1.06 1.19 0.64 1.03 0.85

0.11 Italy -2.47-0.010.000.000.240.11 0.11 0.11 1.71 2.25 2.19 2.19 0.19 0.24 0.24

0.09 Slovakia 11.640.020.000.000.210.08 0.08 0.08 2.19 2.28 2.54 2.54 0.20 0.19 0.21

1.27South Asia -6.30-0.080.000.001.191.15 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.09 1.09 1.40 1.27 1.19

0.80 India -2.99-0.020.000.000.650.75 0.73 0.73 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.70 0.67 0.65

0.47 Pakistan -10.00-0.060.000.000.540.40 0.36 0.36 1.49 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.70 0.60 0.54

0.60Turkey -14.29-0.200.000.001.200.69 0.53 0.53 1.88 2.03 2.26 2.26 1.13 1.40 1.20

0.51South Africa -6.21-0.050.000.000.800.60 0.61 0.61 1.10 1.42 1.31 1.31 0.56 0.85 0.80

0.54Burma 0.000.000.000.000.490.54 0.54 0.54 0.65 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.35 0.49 0.49

0.18Serbia 23.530.100.000.000.530.19 0.19 0.19 2.00 2.30 2.76 2.76 0.35 0.43 0.53

0.04Canada 5.770.000.000.000.060.03 0.03 0.03 2.18 1.86 1.90 1.90 0.09 0.05 0.06

0.03Australia 43.750.010.000.000.050.03 0.04 0.04 1.47 1.19 1.28 1.28 0.04 0.03 0.05

0.14Others -0.490.000.000.000.200.16 0.16 0.16 1.27 1.30 1.30 1.30 0.18 0.20 0.20


Table 15 Rapeseed Area, Yield, and Production


MMTPercent

Yield


Jan 2012/13 MMT

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production



2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

36.30World 1.120.790.100.0771.9436.13 36.40 36.36 1.76 1.97 1.97 1.98 63.76 71.15 71.87

0.70United States 13.550.14-0.44-0.011.140.51 0.63 0.63 1.56 1.96 1.82 1.81 1.09 1.00 1.15

35.60Total Foreign 0.940.660.110.0870.8035.61 35.77 35.73 1.76 1.97 1.98 1.98 62.68 70.14 70.72

none

6.33European Union - 28 14.102.980.110.0324.086.75 6.77 6.77 3.10 3.13 3.55 3.55 19.63 21.10 24.05

1.31 Germany 8.170.470.000.006.251.46 1.40 1.40 3.69 3.95 4.46 4.46 4.82 5.78 6.25

1.61 France 25.331.11-0.42-0.025.481.44 1.50 1.51 3.40 3.04 3.66 3.63 5.46 4.37 5.50

0.76 United Kingdom 17.300.370.000.002.500.72 0.68 0.68 3.38 2.97 3.67 3.67 2.56 2.13 2.50

0.84 Poland 10.710.300.000.003.100.96 0.94 0.94 2.65 2.92 3.31 3.31 2.22 2.80 3.10

0.40 Czech Republic 6.380.090.000.001.540.42 0.40 0.40 2.77 3.45 3.84 3.84 1.11 1.44 1.54

0.13 Denmark -4.55-0.030.000.000.650.18 0.17 0.17 3.71 3.85 3.94 3.94 0.48 0.68 0.65

0.17 Hungary 25.950.140.000.000.660.20 0.22 0.22 2.40 2.59 3.00 3.00 0.40 0.52 0.66

0.11 Romania 61.970.440.000.001.150.29 0.42 0.42 1.53 2.45 2.77 2.77 0.17 0.71 1.15

0.11 Slovakia 4.550.024.830.020.390.14 0.13 0.13 1.99 2.73 2.98 3.13 0.21 0.37 0.37

0.11 Sweden -10.51-0.040.000.000.300.12 0.10 0.10 2.97 2.73 3.14 3.14 0.32 0.33 0.30

0.26 Lithuania 0.360.000.000.000.550.26 0.25 0.25 2.43 2.13 2.22 2.22 0.63 0.55 0.55

0.12 Latvia -22.56-0.070.000.000.230.13 0.11 0.11 2.58 2.32 2.19 2.19 0.30 0.30 0.23

0.06 Austria -3.55-0.010.000.000.190.06 0.05 0.05 2.64 3.40 3.58 3.58 0.15 0.20 0.19

0.06 Finland -23.53-0.020.000.000.070.05 0.05 0.05 1.25 1.60 1.44 1.44 0.08 0.09 0.07

0.09 Estonia -2.300.000.000.000.170.09 0.09 0.09 1.82 2.02 1.98 1.98 0.16 0.17 0.17

7.43China 1.670.240.000.0014.707.53 7.50 7.50 1.88 1.92 1.96 1.96 14.01 14.46 14.70

South Asia

6.75 India 2.740.200.000.007.507.13 7.20 7.20 1.01 1.02 1.04 1.04 6.80 7.30 7.50

0.38 Pakistan -6.25-0.020.000.000.300.36 0.35 0.35 0.92 0.89 0.86 0.86 0.35 0.32 0.30

0.30 Bangladesh 0.000.000.000.000.230.25 0.31 0.25 1.00 0.92 0.74 0.92 0.29 0.23 0.23

8.80Canada -13.42-2.410.000.0015.568.01 8.08 8.08 1.58 2.24 1.93 1.93 13.87 17.97 15.56

3.27Australia -12.26-0.460.000.003.302.66 2.70 2.70 1.27 1.42 1.22 1.22 4.14 3.76 3.30


0.55 Ukraine -6.46-0.150.000.002.201.00 0.85 0.85 2.38 2.36 2.59 2.59 1.30 2.35 2.20

0.97 Russia 7.680.110.000.001.501.11 1.10 1.10 1.07 1.25 1.36 1.36 1.04 1.39 1.50

0.42 Belarus 3.550.020.000.000.700.40 0.43 0.43 1.67 1.68 1.65 1.65 0.71 0.68 0.70

0.08Paraguay 133.330.070.000.000.130.05 0.09 0.09 1.37 1.15 1.40 1.40 0.11 0.05 0.13

0.32Others 15.470.089.090.050.610.37 0.40 0.42 1.34 1.44 1.41 1.46 0.43 0.53 0.56


Table 16 Copra, Palm Kernel, and Palm Oil Production

Country / Region

Production


2012/13

Prel.

2013/14

2014/15 Proj.

Dec Jan MMT Percent MMT Percent



Oilseed, Copra

0.00 0.00 -0.05 -2.08 Philippines 2.65 2.352.352.40

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Indonesia 1.56 1.581.581.58

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 India 0.67 0.670.670.67

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Vietnam 0.24 0.240.240.24

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Mexico 0.21 0.210.210.21

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.130.130.13

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Thailand 0.07 0.070.070.07

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Sri Lanka 0.07 0.070.070.07

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Solomon Islands 0.03 0.030.030.03

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cote d'Ivoire 0.03 0.030.030.03

0.00 0.00 -0.05 -0.90 World 5.80 5.535.535.58

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

0.00 0.00 0.65 8.07 Indonesia 7.48 8.708.708.05

0.00 0.00 0.20 3.92 Malaysia 4.87 5.305.305.10

0.00 0.00 0.01 1.39 Nigeria 0.70 0.730.730.73

0.00 0.00 0.01 2.27 Thailand 0.43 0.450.450.44

0.00 0.00 0.01 4.17 Colombia 0.25 0.250.250.24

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.13 0.130.130.13

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cameroon 0.11 0.110.110.11

0.00 0.00 0.01 9.09 Ecuador 0.11 0.120.120.11

0.00 0.00 0.01 10.00 Honduras 0.10 0.110.110.10

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Brazil 0.10 0.100.100.10

0.00 0.00 0.90 5.74 World 14.83 16.5716.5715.67

Oil, Palm

0.00 0.00 2.50 8.20 Indonesia 28.50 33.0033.0030.50

0.00 0.00 1.09 5.41 Malaysia 19.32 21.2521.2520.16

0.00 0.00 0.10 4.65 Thailand 2.14 2.252.252.15

0.00 0.00 0.03 2.88 Colombia 1.14 1.071.071.04

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Nigeria 0.91 0.930.930.93

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Papua New Guinea 0.61 0.630.630.63

0.00 0.00 0.01 1.79 Ecuador 0.54 0.580.580.57

0.00 0.00 0.01 2.33 Honduras 0.41 0.440.440.43

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cote d'Ivoire 0.39 0.400.400.40

0.00 0.00 0.01 2.86 Guatemala 0.32 0.360.360.35

0.00 0.00 3.73 6.32 World 56.14 62.7962.7959.06


Table 17 Cotton Area, Yield, and Production


MBalesPercent

Yield

(Kilograms per hectare)

Jan 2012/13 MBales

Country / Region

Area

(Million hectares)

Production

(Million 480 lb. bales)


2012/13

Prel.

2013/14 Dec Dec

Prel.

2013/14 Jan

Prel.


2014/15 Proj.2014/15 Proj. 2014/15 Proj.

2012/13

34.39World -1.06-1.270.160.19119.1732.78 34.32 34.25 782 800 755 757 123.58 120.44 118.98

3.77United States 24.603.181.010.1616.083.05 4.00 3.93 999 921 867 891 17.31 12.91 15.92

30.62Total Foreign -4.14-4.450.030.03103.0829.73 30.32 30.32 756 788 740 740 106.27 107.53 103.06

none

5.30China -8.40-2.750.000.0030.004.80 4.40 4.40 1,438 1,486 1,484 1,484 35.00 32.75 30.00

South Asia

12.00 India -1.61-0.50-1.61-0.5030.5011.70 12.75 12.70 517 577 529 523 28.50 31.00 31.00

3.00 Pakistan 7.370.704.080.4010.203.00 3.05 3.05 675 689 700 728 9.30 9.50 9.80


1.32 Uzbekistan -2.44-0.100.000.004.001.29 1.29 1.29 745 695 678 678 4.50 4.10 4.00

0.60 Turkmenistan -3.33-0.050.000.001.450.58 0.55 0.55 581 568 579 579 1.60 1.50 1.45

0.20 Tajikistan -11.11-0.050.000.000.400.19 0.18 0.18 599 516 498 498 0.55 0.45 0.40

0.15 Kazakhstan -26.47-0.090.000.000.250.14 0.13 0.13 611 536 425 425 0.42 0.34 0.25

Sub-Saharan Africa

0.59 Burkina 1.210.02-3.46-0.051.260.65 0.65 0.63 448 419 439 434 1.22 1.24 1.30

0.52 Mali 17.650.150.000.001.000.48 0.57 0.57 362 386 382 382 0.87 0.85 1.00

0.30 Zimbabwe -4.58-0.010.000.000.250.26 0.23 0.23 204 224 237 237 0.28 0.26 0.25

0.25 Benin 4.350.030.000.000.600.27 0.28 0.28 479 464 467 467 0.55 0.58 0.60

0.38 Cote d'Ivoire 10.180.089.630.080.880.36 0.39 0.39 398 485 447 495 0.69 0.80 0.80

0.21 Cameroon 0.000.000.000.000.500.22 0.22 0.22 477 495 495 495 0.46 0.50 0.50

0.30 Nigeria 7.690.020.000.000.280.29 0.30 0.30 236 199 203 203 0.33 0.26 0.28

0.05 Sudan -18.75-0.030.780.000.130.06 0.07 0.07 363 562 419 422 0.08 0.16 0.13

South America

0.90 Brazil -12.50-1.000.000.007.001.12 1.00 1.00 1,452 1,555 1,524 1,524 6.00 8.00 7.00

0.36 Argentina -11.89-0.150.000.001.080.56 0.50 0.50 454 474 468 468 0.75 1.22 1.08

0.05 Paraguay 28.570.010.000.000.050.02 0.03 0.03 363 381 392 392 0.08 0.04 0.05

Middle East

0.41 Turkey 39.130.900.000.003.200.33 0.43 0.43 1,407 1,517 1,620 1,620 2.65 2.30 3.20

0.13 Syria -50.00-0.300.000.000.300.10 0.06 0.06 1,263 1,306 1,089 1,089 0.73 0.60 0.30

0.11 Iran -6.25-0.020.000.000.300.12 0.11 0.11 591 606 594 594 0.29 0.32 0.30

0.45Australia -46.34-1.900.000.002.200.44 0.24 0.24 2,251 2,047 2,038 2,038 4.60 4.10 2.20

0.36European Union - 28 1.310.020.000.001.620.31 0.36 0.36 909 1,119 988 988 1.49 1.60 1.62

0.29 Greece -6.14-0.080.000.001.290.25 0.28 0.28 912 1,217 999 999 1.19 1.37 1.29

0.07 Spain 47.730.110.000.000.330.06 0.08 0.08 893 748 943 943 0.29 0.22 0.33

0.14Egypt 20.690.090.000.000.530.13 0.16 0.16 746 729 737 737 0.49 0.44 0.53

0.16Mexico 32.030.300.000.001.220.12 0.18 0.18 1,455 1,691 1,476 1,476 1.04 0.92 1.22

2.42Others 5.110.192.490.103.912.22 2.23 2.31 346 364 371 369 3.85 3.72 3.81


TABLE 18 The table below presents a record of the differences between the January projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error” means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 0.7 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 1.2 percent. The average difference between the January projection and the final estimate is 3.2 million tons, ranging from 0.0 million to 8.3 million tons. The January projection has been below the estimate 24 times and above 9 times.

RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/

COMMODITY AND REGION

Root mean square error

90 percent confidence

interval

Difference between forecast and final estimate

Average Smallest Largest

Years Below final

Above final

Percent ---Million metric tons---

WHEAT

World 0.7 1.2 3.2 0.0 8.3 24 9

U.S. 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 13 9

Foreign 0.8 1.4 3.2 0.1 8.3 24 9

COARSE GRAINS 2/

World 1.3 2.1 9.8 0.0 26.3 24 9

U.S. 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.6 14 7

Foreign 1.8 3.0 9.7 0.0 26.3 23 10

RICE (Milled)

World 1.7 2.9 4.8 0.0 13.9 27 5

U.S. 1.8 3.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 13 7

Foreign 1.7 2.9 4.8 0.1 13.9 28 5

SOYBEANS

World 3.5 6.0 4.7 0.0 22.4 19 14

U.S. 1.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 2.5 15 13

Foreign 6.0 10.1 4.8 0.2 22.6 19 14

COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---

World 2.6 4.3 1.9 0.0 5.4 22 10

U.S. 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 12 20

Foreign 3.1 5.3 1.9 0.0 5.7 24 8

UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------

CORN 0.4 0.8 12 0 148 4 2

SORGHUM 1.1 1.9 2 0 53 1 3

BARLEY 0.5 0.9 1 0 11 13 4

OATS 0.4 0.6 0 0 2 4 4

1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2013/14. Final for grains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first November estimates following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2013/14. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain

January 2015 Office of Global Analysis, FAS, USDA

Documents

United States World Agricultural Service Production€¦ · Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD 202-260-8109 [email protected]